8 Early Rankings Discrepancies for 2024! | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice

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Heath has Trey McBride as his #1 tight end while Dave and Jamey have him as TE4 (1:47)! That’s our first rankings dispute followed by some news and notes (10:20) on Tee Higgins, Trevor Lawrence and more … Let’s debate James Conner (17:20), Jaylen Warren (21:10) and Mike Evans (27:30). Age comes into play when discussing Conner and Evans. As far as Warren goes, how much will Arthur Smith help him? Should he really be ranked in the Top 24? … Rankings disputes for DK Metcalf (35:20), D.J. Moore (42:10), Jared Goff (49:30) and Caleb Williams (51:10). We’ve got a sneaky good stat on Goff and an upside debate on Williams … Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com

0:00 Intro

1:47 Trey McBride

10:20 News and Notes

17:20 James Conner

21:10 Jaylen Warren

27:30 Mike Evans

35:20 DK Metcalf

42:10 DJ Moore

49:30 Jared Goff

51:10 Caleb Williams

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welcome to another week of fantasy football today what’s going on the whole gang is here I’m Adam AER with Heath Cummings Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg it is Monday June 17th pretty soon we’ll be at five days a week still G to be at four days a week this week and I think through the end of June no show on Wednesday it’s juneth and then we’ll be have a show on Friday for you today we have some rankings disputes we’re GNA look at Trey McBride James Connor Jaylen Warren Mike Evans DK metf DJ Moore Jared Goff and Caleb Williams one of the three of these guys is going to be a lot higher or a lot lower than the other two and we’ll talk about it but a belated happy Father’s Day guys that was your father’s day it was good it was great thank you how was yours mine was great I swam played some soccer with the kids and other and like cousin you know nephews uh and then I had uh I had dessert for dinner it was great I had ice cream cake chocolate cake strawberry cake banana bread two Rice Krispy treats and some fruit all for dinner it was like you ever read The Very Hungry Caterpillar now you’re a diabetic yeah it was uh it was great it was awesome yeah Dave I the look on your face you’re like whoa even the fat guy on the show is like damn that’s a lot yeah well when you don’t eat dinner you have a lot of room for dessert I guess anyway anyway Heath Trey McBride you have first in your tight end rankings we’re looking at PPR rankings by the way for these guys you have Trey McBride first Jamie and Dave have him fourth full disclosure it’s gonna be a lot of Heath you have this guy here the other he versus the world yeah you ever see Scott Pilgrim versus the world underrated movie but Heath uh you have Trey McBride first is it an action movie it’s more action than like I just watch I finished Mission Impossible I would say Scott Pilgrim more action than that oh boy um I have no idea I’ve never seen or heard of Scott P but yeah I I have very my projections very very close and actually Sam leaport is not one of them but he’s right behind them but McBride Kelsey and Andrews I think Kelsey’s actually just ahead of McBride but I’ve got a little bit of concern that the Chiefs at some point decide to save Kelce a little bit like they maybe did last year so I that’s bumped him behind McBride which makes McBride tight end one he was about 15 fantasy points per game from week 10 on after KY Murray took over as the quarterback and he did that with just two touchdowns I would expect the touchdown production to improve this year he was on Pace for 1143 yards but it’s not just what he did like that’s what this offense is set up to do we’ve talked about it with Kevin stefansky we’ve talked about it with Alex vanpelt going to New England it’s a tight end Centric offense Zack Herz playing with Trey McBride was on Pace for 110 targets before he got hurt and I do think Marvin Harrison is going to have some impact on that but there’s seven targets per game that we going to Maris Brown and rondale Moore so we don’t have to just create 10 targets a game for Marvin Harrison out of thin air we’ve got to create three or four I would expect McBride’s efficiency also going to be much better he was a yard per Target better playing with Kyler Murray than he was with the other quarterbacks okay Jamie why is why is Heath wrong you’ve got McBride fourth I know it’s like a big four for everybody you and Dave have McBride fourth Heath has him first tell us why you don’t have him ahead of the other three yeah I don’t think Heath is wrong I just think that the other three guys are slightly better mostly because of the touchdown potential and I think that’s something that will bounce back for Kelsey obviously scoring five last year is not something you expect from him even if he is talking about a reduced role uh understanding where he at is at in his career where this team is at wanting him to be at his best as the end of the season playoffs approach because they’re trying to get their third Super Bowl I think Mark Andrews bounces back from a health standpoint and plays at the level that he was trending at which was over 13 and a half PPR points per game run at the same level as the other guys and I think Lea stays in the eight plus touchdown range so that’s why I like those guys better and obviously as as Heath alluded to there’s going to be more competition for targets with the Cardinals so I think there’s a big four I’m starting to get to the point where there’s a big five because I think dton k k takes that step forward but um just in the case of what these guys accomplished last year and what they should accomplish this year I think McBride is worth taking in the first four rounds mostly in round four in the back end of round four but in the first four rounds I have him as tight end four because I I do think there’s a little bit more upside again from the the the touchdown potential but I think all these guys have the opportunity to finish as tight end one and hopefully McBride does it because there’s a lot to like about his game and his situation McBride averaged over eight targets per game with Kyler Murray last year I don’t see that repeating I know that there’s a lot of targets that need to be replaced in Arizona I think Marvin Harrison is going to not only replace all of those targets but get more than that we’ve seen Kyler Murray throw as many as 10 targets per game to his number one wide receiver and he’s not the only one getting headlines they’re talking about Greg dorch as a slot receiver uh breaking out this year which sounds kind of crazy but whatever that’s what they’re saying in Camp Michael Wilson’s still there he might be good for three or four targets per game I’m nervous about McBride getting back to eight targets per game if you Heath were to tell me that you’ve got him projected for s.0 targets per game I think I could buy into that but I still think he’s not going to see uh more than two touchdowns yes but like eight touchdowns that’s where I think Jam’s right I also agree that there’s a top five at tight end and I I don’t want to overdraft McBride when he had this great second half without really anybody else stepping up in that passing game for Arizona we’re we’re banking on Marvin Harrison we’ve we I I don’t know about Heath I know I’ve got him as a top 10 wide receiver I think you all have him ninth you all have Harrison so I I don’t see how McBride can be one and Marvin Harrison finishes top 10 uh this sounds like a case of drafting a player too close to his ceiling when it comes to McBride going any higher than fourth and that’s only in full PPR in non PPR I think I have him fifth Adam oh okay so it’s really it really does come down to touchdowns in the last eight games with Kyler Murray like forget about the two games he played before that he had a huge game against Baltimore and then everyone was terrible at Cleveland last eight games he averaged for I think I have 14.9 yeah 14.9 points per game about right which is a lot more than what Sam lorta averaged last year Sam lorta averaged 13.8 points per game and that was with uh let’s see with 10 touchdowns in 17 games McBride was on Pace for only five touchdowns so you you do have that going in your favor Heath even I me obviously obviously there was no Harrison but at the same time it wasn’t exactly vintage Kyler Murray Kyler Murray was averaging about 220 passing yards per game which is pretty low for him uh so you know it there’s I know like Dave and Jamie are focusing on the touchdowns we probably need to also focus on the catches I’m assuming it’s like big gap between well I don’t know is it a big gap in your projections between him in Lea how many catches as I see you looking that up say to put you on the spot no that’s that’s fine I’ve got it I’ve got it right here I’ve got um 99 catches for McBride I think he was on Pace for 113 playing with Kyler Murray last year and I have 85 for leaport so it’s 14 catch difference that’s made up almost exactly by the touchdowns because I have Porto with seven and McBride was with five okay well leor I think Le Porto with seven is probably what really jumps out there you have McBride at 5.8 catches per game okay all right this is over the course of the whole season I don’t know exactly what it was at the end of the year he was at 4.8 for the whole year for the whole season yeah now listen it’s not fair to like say that and say that that’s a strike against McBride because I don’t know what he averaged with Kyler oh yeah he averaged well he didn’t play the he was a backup tight end the first seven weeks of the Season what what do you have for targets per game for McBride I got him at 132 so like seven and a half yeah yeah I feel like that’s a little too high 119 would be seven per game um so I it’s somewhere in there I mean look I again I think all these guys have the chance to be special you know and and there there’s there’s pros and cons that can knock them down a peg or too depending on how you feel about it but it’s very it would be very surprising to see somebody else get drafted ahead of these guys now again if somebody’s really in love with con they can make that case KD based on how he finished last year can can leap frog one of these guys potentially but these should be the top four tight ends just a matter of a how strongly you feel about one of them and I think for Heath’s benefit if this is his number one guy he doesn’t have to draft him first because one of the other two most likely lorta and Kelsey will go ahead of okay all right let’s uh we’ll get back to some more ranking disputes in a little bit we have some news and notes to get to we also have to you got to be watching CBS Sports HQ especially this time of year there is so much going on in the World of Sports so CBS Sports HQ has everything that you want I mean golf obviously hockey basketball football you name it CBS Sports is covering CBS Sports HQ is covering it all so make sure you’re watching that news and notes uh when we come back we’ll take a quick break to talk about Trevor Lawrence T Higgins Gus Edward injury or something like that uh quarterback competitions and more after this have you heard of semag glue Tides kmic monjaro this could be dangerous let’s do it South Park the end of obesity new exclusive event now streaming exclusively on Paramount plus okay Trevor Lawrence a five-year $275 million deal with 200 million guarantee does anybody have anything to say about this go ahead Heath no I’ve got all my snark tweets out I don’t have anything to say about it on the official podcast no I think if you look at the contract actually the way they structured it it’s not near as big or bad as it sounds that’s often the case you know it’s pretty guaranteed money is still a lot $200 million in five years well it’s the 200 million but like some of that becomes guaranteed in 20126 and some of that becomes guaranteed in 2027 like there’s there’s some outs along the way if if they if nothing changes all right T Higgins signed his franchise tender so that’s pretty big news are we ready to just rank T Higgins like without any concerns about contracts or mood or anything like that are we are we finally there with t Higgins now still be moody yeah he can be moody but he’s still gonna play I was never worried about a hold out here okay Gus Edwards is dealing with an injury but he’s on a really good track to be ready for training camp According to Jim Harbaugh okay Washington head coach Dan Quinn is not named a starting quarterback yet they have Jaden Daniels and Marcus Mariota I can name it I can name it for him if you’d like I’d be happy to do it uh Cleveland head coach Kevin stefansky said toan Watson has looked normal to him that’s cool Seattle head coach Mike McDonald says he wants to move DK metcafe around and get him the ball a lot and metf last year had a very low slot rate out of 80 wide receiver with 50 or more targets metf was 75th in slot rate that was 12.6% of his snaps he lined up out of the slot and it was typically a little bit he’s never gonna play a lot in this slot but he was between 16 and 19 percent each of the previous three seasons so I you obviously like to hear that Mike McDonald wants to get him the ball out McDonald also talked about how Jackson Smith and the jigo was GNA be a quote massive piece of the Seattle offense and it just goes back to what my research told me about what Ryan grub likes to do I even talked about it with Odun when I was in Chicago definite emphasis on utilizing the wide receivers definite emphasis on the slot just because DK hasn’t lined up in the slot very much doesn’t mean that he won’t line up maybe a little bit more but I think Smith and jiga is gonna be the one who lines up in the slot the most he’s it’s hard for me to keep moving him up and up my rankings but he’s somebody that I’m excited to look for once I get to round seven eight we’re going to do bold predictions and I don’t really think it’s so B to make a prediction about someone’s ADP but if I one of my bold predictions I guess would be that Jackson Smith and jiga Rises 35 spots because he’s been about a hundredth and I don’t think it’s going to take much to get him in the sixth round let’s say like maybe a little after the 60th pick 35 is a lot I don’t think he’ll get in the fifth round but I could see jsn being one of the bigger risers in ADP what do you guys think the highest could possibly see him going no injury to Lockett or Mecha or anything I’m way behind on where he seems to go anyway we’re gonna talk DK later I think in the rankings disputes but I like I think trying to figure out this Seattle offense is pretty fascinating because generally speaking you tell me they’re hiring a a defensive head coach and a firsttime NFL offensive coordinator and I wouldn’t expect a lot of pass volume defensive head coaches I I looked at this if you look at the top 10 teams in pass rate last year I think five of them maybe six of them were defensive head coaches including Washington which was number one by far I haven’t really seen a major cor I haven’t really studied it I just looked at last year but it was a big mix of at the top offensive head coaches and defensive head coaches uh and they actually like you know they they haven’t been a run heavy team either of the last two years with Pete Carol that’s another thing they’ve actually been pretty pass heavy they might be more Russell Wilson they were happy they might be more run heavy because they actually were were kind of a pass first team uh the last couple years as I recall uh let’s see let’s so J I just looking at NFC jsn ADP is 105th 104th 105th think he can get to 70 I don’t know if I’d want him if he gets to 70 why why wouldn’t I want him no why would he get to 70 like what well I I think you know the what was the 1880p we looked at that was was fancy Pros that was so wide receiver heavy yeah but I’m not looking at that anymore although I mean it could be a situation like that where it’s just you know there’s so much of a trend toward wide receivers that players like him get pushed up more and it pushes other guys down makes me want to chase those other guys yeah but I mean if we’re talking about a receiver getting drafted 105th jumping 30 spots there’s not many people that are going to be that good being pushed push down to that position it’s going to be pushing down running backs quarterbacks tiance I’m trying to think some of the guys who were like those those big big risers where it almost got two expensive said oh oh uh Jan doson it could be something like that like I feel like Jan doson had a pretty big rise during the preseason was one of the worst I just think it takes the locket injury or something like for for that yeah 30 spots is a big jump without an injury right well well I mean I preface that by saying that we all kind of felt like he was really good value at 105th right we I think we all spotlighted him as a really good late round pick we thought he was going too low anyway so people catch up to that maybe pushes him into the 90s then he has a big preseason all right we’ll see we’ll see it’s it’s a very exciting bull prediction though check out I won’t make it one of mine but it’s like an extra um Mark cabali of the athletic thinks that Calvin Austin is the one Steelers wide receiver other than George Pickins that has a chance to have a big role by George Pickins yes by George then uh Shan MC said Blake Korum has really stood out that’s cool every opens his mouth I hear Blake km’s name come out starting running back misses time with injury rookie they just drafted does well never heard that before yeah but we we um I think we talked about with Blake Corum before he was ever drafted that he was going to be the type of running back that a coach was going to love yes um so that doesn’t like it doesn’t really surprise me and the Dolphins sign his ADP May jump significantly oh sure yeah 30 spots that you 30 spots I think I don’t know what it is right now but I think 30 spots would be a too big too much too soon okay let’s go to our ranking disputes although you really got me curious now I want to look up Blake corms ADP which is 118th on NFC since June 1st which is yeah if K if Kiren was still coming into camp with an injury that might have jumped 20 spots yeah back to the rankings disputes here we go and you know what people seem to really like Trey Benson his ADP 111th overall 112th overall so let’s talk about James Conor Dave is the high guy on James Connor he has him 20th in his PPR rankings Jaime has Connor 25th Heath has Connor 26 couple of guys that Dave has Connor ahead of that Jamie and Heath do not be Jonathan Brooks and Nai Harris Dave you are on the clock with James Conor I just like that he’s averaged at least 15 PPR Points each of the last three seasons still is going to be the main back in Arizona yet Benson’s gonna take some work away and again reading over those Cardinal reports sounds like Michael Carter could even have a little bit of a role but I I think Conor’s gonna have all the high value touches I think this offense will be a lot better than it was last year and Conor when he was healthy was was good last year I don’t mind taking him as my 20th running back off the board board he is an rb2 and then going and getting Benson later on where was he like round 10 you said for Benson that works for me if I really want to combo that back field I know he’s 29 it doesn’t really bug me that much I expect him to miss some time that’s why he’s not higher there aren’t a lot of running backs that can average 15 PPR points that you’re gonna find as a low-end rb2 so I’ll I’ll I’ll deal with the the downfalls the games that he misses um the downside to his game to have him in my lineup when he does play well and does get three plus catches a game does find The End Zone um somebody who does get a lot of the work that we want our running backs to get okay Heath why don’t you you are slightly lower than Jamie basically TI I thought this would be like the one player that we talk about today where I didn’t have like it’s not Heath against the world it’s Dave against the world I thought I’d just set this one out but no I mean it’s it’s easy he’s a 29y old running back who’s played more than 13 games I think twice in his entire career Target volume to running backs really kind of disappeared last year because of what we just talked about with Trey McBride they throw a lot of their dump off passes to tight ends so I think Connor was below three targets per game which probably means two catches per game um and Trey Benson I expect to make an impact and a bigger impact as the season goes on I actually dropped him uh last night when I updated my rankings he was like 23 I dropped him a couple spots uh for exactly what he said um um it’s it’s there’s going to be pockets of the Season where he’s fantastic there’s going to be pockets of the Season where you don’t have him at all there’s going to be some times where you know we may see and this is my biggest fear is that does he miss time and Trey Benson takes off and then it’s it’s a shared role for these two guys because Benson’s that good so it it feels like they’ve been trying to add somebody to supplement James Conor not that they wanted to replace him but to supplement now they finally got somebody and so we’ll see if they take him off the field from more stretches but uh I think Dave’s right you know there’s going to be some some points in the season where he’s amazing and you know the beginning part of the Year hopefully is the case when he’s healthy and ready to go offensive line got better quarterback we know is is healthy you know year two coming off the ACL and and the receiving core definitely got better so there’s a lot to like about this offense but I do think the role in the passing game is not going to be the same that we saw in the beginning part of his Cardinals tenure by compar by comparison to what we saw last year what’s his ADP did you mention that and I missed it I did not James Conor is going 76th overall awesome value tell you where he is among running backs yep I and for now I would take him ahead of Brooks who isn’t practicing Naji because I I mean we’ll talk about the Steelers backfield but I’m very schemes about that um taking him ahead of Tony Pard who’s gonna be splitting in Tennessee schemes schem orish yeah what did you think I said you said skish which sish I said squeamish no doubt about it said I said skish okay well schemes feels like a fantasy football term if we look at them Steelers backfield schemingly you wonder you know will will Jaylen Warren have a bigger role let’s talk about Jaylen Warren and Heath is back on the spot here Heath has Jaylen Warren 20th Jamie 29th Dave 35th but seeing Warren 20th is is really interesting last year I mean I know we we barely got to touch on the touchdown regression for him he was part of the regression show he was 29th per game in full PPR 35th and N 31st per game in half PPR and that was with uh zero receiving touchdowns on 61 catches but all right Jaylen Warren 20th very high Heath yeah I have and I have him and niji basically back toback like they finished last year um I think per game he was 28th and for the full season Warren did finish 20th last year I think that the Steelers running backs are probably both a little bit better than they were last year one thing we’ve seen from Arthur Smith pretty much his entire time in the NFL is that that guy can design he is very schemes when it comes to the Run game like he can design good run lanes and great Rush efficiency for 31y old kick returners and 21y old first round picks um he was slightly better than Nai last year with only four touchdowns on 210 touches I have more Rush volume and a more efficient Rush offense for the Steelers and a little bit of positive touchdown regression for Warren as well but wait did you give him more yards per carry because he already averaged 5.3 yards per carry last year I meant a more efficient Rush offense yeah but but what about for Warren uh 5.1 okay still pretty damn good might lead the league with that close to it anyway all right Dave you’re the low guy on Warren I think 35th wow something like that yep I don’t know exactly what Arthur Smith wants to do other than be unpredictable I know I agree with Heath that when it comes to to the Run game he’s awesome at it he always has been but I don’t think it’s going to be I I don’t think jaylen’s going to get the chance to be the lead running back for more than like a game here or there when the game script suggests as much I I still think it’s going to be a lot of niji I’m still taking niji ahead of Warren even in full PPR and I think this coaching staff even if you remove Arthur Smith from it just watching them last year there were so many opportunities for them to give jayen more work than nii because nii was so ineffective and they never did it and I don’t know if it’s ever going to happen I don’t know if Jaylen Moren will ever overtake Nagi Harris as the main running back there and so I don’t I I I know that he’s good for 10 11 I think that’s where he finished up was like 11 and a half PPR points per game if you draft him with that expectation you’re G to be fine taking him as a as a top 24 type of running back I don’t think he can return that value as long as nii stays in the good graces of the coaching staff and even when he was bad last year he stayed in the good graces of that coaching staff and he stays healthy if those two things happen I would be nervous for Jaylen Warren to be a bigger factor in fantasy Jamie nii Harris has never missed a game I don’t know sometimes it seems like he’s missed games no I I do think there might have been a little bit of a change last year Jaylen Warren did not have a game where he played more than half of the offensive snaps in the first half of the season and he had five of those games in the second half of the Season including one where he played over 60% of the snaps so I the the unpredictable part from Dave is right but I’m pretty sure both these backs are going to be involved like we’re talking about the unpredictable thing is is one of them 55% or 65% but I don’t think there’s any chance that Naj is just going to make Jaylen Warren irrelevant I’m pretty sure Warren’s going to have the passing role which has been pretty prevalent in the Arthur Smith offense throwing running backs well and and and that point I think is extremely relevant with something Adam said earlier with Calvin Austin being a big part of the passing game I mean this receiving C is bad you know so George Pickins we have a lot of expectations for year three he looks like a breakout candidate there’s some hope for Roman Wilson I mean obviously you have some guys that they’ve you know trying to get some production out of a lot of guys that have played with Arthur Smith before For Better or Worse um but you know van Jefferson right now being most likely the starting you know outside second outside receiver um I think Pat frth G have a big role but Jaylen Warren’s going to be probably the the third guy in terms of targets if not competing to be the second guy in terms of targets and that’s huge and so I think in terms of where you’re getting Warren again Adam you know not to keep pestering you about ADP for these guys but it’s got to be at such a an incredible value if fact if in fact you’re like Heath you like Warren better and in PPR it should be probably pretty close the thing I like about Nai which is why I have him ranked slightly higher is I like the fact that he’s lost weight and should be coming in in better shape I like the fact that he’s motivated now for a new deal that they’ve you know decided not to give him the fifth year option so uh that works twofold for me one hopefully he’s trying to go out and prove he’s still one of the better running backs in the league if in fact people value him that way and two they can run him into the ground from a carry perspective and then kick him out the door and say maybe Jaylen Warren is our guy of the future so uh from a carry perspective he’s still G to lead the team in carries from a yardage and touchdown perspective I still think he leads them that way from a rushing Ard perspective Jaylen Warren’s going to have more receptions there’s no question about that and so if he scores you know five touchdowns then the the production might be better for Warren but I still think na is going to have a slightly better season which is why I would take him first before taking Warren but I I I tend to just let other people take nausey and then try and Target Jaylen Warren because I know he’ll go later all right next I think the offensive line they they addressed the offensive line in the draft they addressed it in free agency the last couple years draft last year too should be a better front five and and I want to be clear I’m not necessarily anti-i I’ve got both of them higher than where they finished last year just I’ve got Warren slightly better like like last year actually but are you are you reaching for for Warren then because where you hav’t ranked would suggest that he’s going to go ahead of his ADP um I don’t find myself reaching for running backs in that stretch but if he’s there in round six or round seven if that’s a reach yeah I’m fine with it ready for Mike Evans yeah yay why don’t I let Dave start because Dave I’ll just call you the low guy instead of HE calling Heath the high guy or Jamie h no Jamie can’t start as the middle guy he has to come in after so Dave has him 19th and Heath has him 10th Jamie has Mike Evans 15th Heath has him ahead of guys like Drake London Michael Pitman and Devonte Adams not the case for Jamie and Dave but Dave you are the low guy on Old Man Evans I just don’t want to draft him based solely on last year um when in the Years prior he was still getting 15 and change in PPR and that’s really where I want to get him it was 15.9 in 2021 15 on the nose in 2022 2023 17.3 we know Godwin wasn’t healthy for a big part of the year I think Godwin’s gonna enter training camp healthy now they’ve got a couple of other peripheral receivers that might take away fractions of targets from Mike Evans but I I I just wonder if they’re going to try and not be as ring on Big Mike as they were last year and I don’t want to bank on him having to come through with a bunch of touchdowns again uh to me it’s a case of not drafting him too close to his ceiling I’d rather miss out on Evans than take him as the 10th wide receiver off the board I still think he’s absolutely worth drafting as a number two type of fantasy receiver but not as a number one not as a top 15 guy Jamie why don’t you get in there sorry you’re you’re in the middle here and then we’ll let Heath make the positive case for Mike Evans as wide receiver 10 he’s old yeah I mean look at at some point there’s going to be some significant regression for him and he’s not going to get a thousand yards he’s not going to get 10 touchdowns he’s still going to you know hopefully be a good player if not a great player um but we’ve seen some down years for him where he hasn’t been you know top 10 you know I know Adam you references of a few at some point in the last couple weeks about you know he’s never finished lower than than 24th um in PPR and hopefully that’s still the case but I’m expecting Godwin to do to perform at a little higher level now that he’s back in the slot you know the the reports on McMillan are positive you know our own Pete prisco was at mini camp and just raving about this kid and so hopefully that’s you know something that matters for the offense and takes away a little bit of Mike Evans but you know from a floor standpoint you can’t find somebody that’s been more consistent than him and that’s hard to overlook you just got to hope that the the the start of the decline has uh we haven’t seen it yet and at some point that’s going to happen and you don’t want to you know be a part of that when it when it hits first off I don’t think that he’s old argument works if we have Devonte Adams ahead of him because Adams is older that’s the range I’m in right um I I don’t there was no sign at all of him getting worse last year led the NFL and receiving touchdowns his yards per catch and yards per Target were better than his career averages his yards per game was like two yards off of his career averages I I he was yeah he was not top 10 the two years before last year but he was 12th and 14th that though it’s hard to you know compare do do you the fact that he actually had a better year last year in terms of rate stats uhuh do you think he’s gonna fall back from that he might fall back yeah sure a couple of spots yeah yeah touchdowns is a lot to ask for well he’s done it like four times in his career he’s one of the highest touchdown rate guys in the NFL history what do you make the thing that concerns me it you know Dave Canal is leaving why does that so much I like why does that you why does that wor you so much Jamie well I mean look he left Seattle they they took a step back I he’s obviously a pretty good play caller and a good you know he’s good at um making things schemes um but I I I hope that you know this offense can continues to perform on a high level that bicker doesn’t take a step backwards but again I just go back to at some point these guys start to tail off in their careers and you know I just don’t think and and and clearly it’s you know probably by a matter of um a few spots in our overall rankings because I’m i’mna guess Heath having him ten is a round two pick for me it’s a round three pick so it’s not like you know I’m that far away from him but I just don’t like buying in on players like Devonte Adams like Mike Evans at this point in their career and expecting them to continue to produce as level or get better I think the only likely scenario is his father time has shown us that they start to get worse uh yeah to the point about touchdowns Evans does have at least 13 touchdowns three of his last four seasons but two of those Seasons he barely had over a thousand yards two of those Seasons he was under 120 targets for the year those were two 16 game Seasons not 17 game Seasons I’m I I think that he’s good for like a,1 and if you draft him that way then I don’t think you’ll be terribly disappointed I think he’d sell healthy I think he can be effective at 31 years of age I’m not worried about the offensive change because I think it’s kind of similar and I think Liam Cohen’s a smart guy that’s the new offensive coordinator in Tampa but I’m just I’m worried about other parts of that offense taking some of the stress off of Evans shoulders this year like so Godwin what part more I think he’s going to have a bit of a bounceback season I don’t think he’ll ever be back to where he was once upon a time but I think he’ll be better than he was last year I think he played hurt through two-thirds of the year so what do you make of this I just want to bring this up right the guy had 1,255 yards which is a lot for him lately and 13 touchdowns which obviously he can do and let’s just look at where he finished per game in in all three formats 13 touchdown seventh in non PPR eighth in half PPR and 11th per game in full PPR so I’m looking at a guy who had 13 touchdowns that lead the league and higher yardage total than usual I think probably a lower catch total than usual only 79 in 17 games but he only finished only made a great year finished 11th per game in in full PPR in that format it doesn’t really want make me want to take him you know higher than maybe 15th or so I will say his yards per game were worse last year than the year before he average it was he just played 15 games so it the yards per game were almost identical the last two years I don’t think the yardage was outlandish last year uh no not outlandish he was on he was on Pace for more slightly more yards in 20 he was on Pace for 1,274 yards in 2022 and 19 fewer in 2023 a yard more per game in 2022 he got more targets he just he dominated targets last year in a way that I didn’t really expect and uh he also averaged more targets per game in 2022 than he did in 2023 well they probably threw a lot more his Target share and his Target paral share was higher yes you the a DOT from 2022 versus 2023 yeah I’ve got it right here it was 12.6 in 2022 14 last year okay and he’s been for the last six years anywhere between 12.1 and 15.6 okay that’s Evans and we got DK meaf DJ Moore and two quarterbacks to talk about when we come back from this break on fantasy football today there’s some new players in town and they brought the plague he got my attention you don’t want that to Kingstown mayor of kingtown new season now streaming exclusively on Paramount plus welcome back we just had a mayor of Kingstown promo I am now too behind that’s not good I also did not watch House of the Dragon oh lot of TV was it good uh yes but I had to go back after watching it because I forgot how much I forgot I had to go catch up a little bit so I watched uh the second half of season one when they were adults okay you watched that whole God you watched all that last night why do you think I was up till four o’clock um there was uh yeah it it it it it it took a lot of catching up to yeah it I mean those shows are crazy they the the previously on that you need at least 10 minutes of that to catch up on a whole season okay let’s go to DK metf okay Heath let jie let Jamie start Jamie’s slightly higher than Dave Jamie has metf 20th Heath Dave has him 21st and Heath has DK metf 30th behind guys like George Pickins Christian Kirk and Stefon Diggs whereas Pickin Kirk and Diggs are behind metf for Jamie and Dave they are ahead of metf for Heath so again it’s Jamie 20th Dave 21st Heath 30th for DK meaf Jamie I’ll let you start so I actually go back and forth with meaf and Pickins and that that’s you know going to be a fun one before our rankings lock for our magazine and then certainly as the rest of the offseason unfolds uh because I think both could be pretty special um you know like David said you know in researching Ryan Grub’s offense this coming into the NFL There’s an opportunity here for meaf to hopefully you know start to look like the guy that he was before the last couple of Seasons when he’s kind of struggled with Gino Smith a little bit but I do think that they’re going to put him in some situations to be successful you mentioned this before Adam they were so slow in terms of pace of play that I think that’s going to change dramatically that we’re going to see more offensive opportunities for these guys which is why jsn is an opportunity to be a much better player why meaf has a chance to hopefully play like the guy that we were you know talking about as maybe one of the best Dynasty options for a few years before these last couple of years he’s just such a physical presence has an opportunity to still be one of the best Alpha receivers in the league the questions is can Gino Smith get him the get him the give give him the opportunities to do that that’s really what I keep coming back to which is why he’s not higher for me but I do think that there’s a chance in this offense with this system how schemes they’ll be that meaf will be uh closer to a top 15 caliber wide receiver and the chance to be a solid number two receiver uh because when when when our our draft our rankings process started he was closer to where Heath hasn’t ranked for me he was like 26 27 uh but I do like him better than Diggs I like the situation uh right now slightly better than guys like Christian Kirk who I do like a lot uh better than Amari Cooper better than some of these guys I think that if DK does hit in this offense he could be in the top 10 yeah can I just clarify one thing I’ll let Heath get in there I don’t know for a fact that they had a slow pace of play Seattle but yeah they just didn’t run a lot of plays three years in a row I think and two of the last three years they’ve been like dead last or something like that in just plays run and time of possession absolutely terrible this team okay uh Heath you have met 10 spots lower than Jamie 30th yeah I I wish that I could make this an impassioned argument but I went and looked there in my projections there is a difference of 10 total fantasy points between wide receiver 17 and wide receiver 30 for me like I think I’ve heard that Scott White and Chris Towers have liked to talk about the blob of or glob of starting pitchers and that this is where the glob of of wide receivers is for me I I I’m a little bit less maybe more uncertain about the new offense and new coaching staff um there seems to be more excitement being expressed while I’ve got a little bit more uncertainty and if jsn is going to make a leap I don’t think that’s going to be a good thing for DK metf I don’t think Tyler lockett’s just going to go away um he’s going to pester metf as he has for most of meta’s career um but if there’s like it’s not too big of a thing I could make one or two small ranking projections adjustments as I do throughout the off season and DK could jump to that wide receiver 20 to 24 range I think the thing that like worries me the most when you look at that 2023 season 4.1 receptions per game yeah like that’s that’s not a number two wide receiver yeah 6 offense though yeah it is right the worst part about is that he he averaged 7.4 targets per game so he was getting those opportunities to get numbers and he still couldn’t have a lot of catches to go along with it I wonder if that goes part and parcel with the downfield shots that he couldn’t quite bring in uh he does seem to be a little touchdown dependent but the thing that might his Endzone targets and his Red Zone targets and Adams talked about this a lot I think I think he’s had he’s top four in End Zone targets every year of his career yep targets he was fifth last year he’s been 10th or higher to the last four years so they’re gonna use him in that role if they move around a lot more that means that they might be able to create some matchups for him and if the a do comes down that’ll help his reception it’s hard to say that they’re gonna throw more though because they already were one of the highest Vol passing teams last year I I I could see him continuing to lead the Seahawks in targets and certainly Endzone targets and be at the top of that blob of wide receiver twos yeah they they were pass heavy but but remember they barely they didn’t run a lot of plays so they were 17th in pass attempts they were let’s see they were 31st Rush attempts and I think they were fifth in pass rate overall right but you know it doesn’t really matter if you’re running the fewest so what do you let me just say I mean this might be everything we need to know about DK mecf I don’t really think it is I think he’s a fascinating player but three seasons in a row in full PPR he has been 22nd or 23rd per game you know it could be just that simple I don’t know that you’re gonna find a wide receiver who’s been that consistent in where he’s finished uh there’s so much AER stating that you can do and things like that but three years in a row been a lowend number two wide receiver per game could be just could just be that all right uh let’s go to DJ Moore he has not been a low-end number two wide receiver three years in a row he a little bit more volatile than that in his career right I mean I mean you talk about a guy that’s tough to figure out Heath has him 27th Jamie 21st and Dave 18th all right Mr Bears man uh Bear Down Bear Down DAV DJ Mo night I think that DJ Moore is going to continue to be the number one receiver in Chicago we’re all very aware of what he did last year when Justin Fields was throwing to him he got an upgrade at quarterback with Caleb Williams I Saw firsthand that they were on the same page that made me feel better about ranking DJ Moore as a top 20 wide receiver and yeah Keenan Allen’s there romad dun is there I I don’t think they’re going to impact the targets for DJ Moore that much I still think he’s going to be not Far and Away the top Target getter but I think he could still be seven and a half to eight targets per game and I think he can catch a lot of him I still think he can make a lot of big plays the offense that he’s running it’s what it’s a West Coast offense it’s based on McVey uh it’s Shane walren calling the plays Shane walr was the guy in Seattle they did use slow pace last year maybe they go a little slow this year for Chicago but they’ll throw more so it could be just like what Seattle did overall where they’re throwing a lot just not necessarily as many plays I’ll still take DJ Moore in his gamebreaking ability in a in a system where he’s not going to get double team that much and should still continue to play at a high level as the number one guy in Chicago and I’ll take him ahead of Mike Evans do Darnell mie Chase Claypool Tyler Scott veis Jones equinus St Brown Trent Taylor and and Johnson were the other wide receivers who caught passes for the Bears last year MH Keenan Allen has always everywhere he’s played he demands 10 plus or everybody quarterback he plays with he demands 10 plus targets per game and he was awesome last year in terms of efficiency showed no signs of age all true and he didn’t show any signs of age at mini camp either and they go draft romad dun and the as a top 10 pick I don’t know how we can say that these guys aren’t going to impact DJ Moore’s Target Sher he had like I’ve obviously been wrong about DJ Mo plenty and maybe he’ll be the clear number one but I just think this is a mess in terms of projected Target share and the one Elite season we got for DJ Moore he immediately loses the offensive coordinator and quarterback responsible Jamie yeah I don’t think those are bad things uh I I I tend to lean toward Heath here with this even though I don’t have a ranked that way but um I’m hoping that DJ Moore’s Talent lends itself to him still continuing to dominate targets it’s it’s hard to well I don’t think Kean Allen’s getting 10 targets per game I think that’s you know crazy to expect that again I don’t think Heath is projecting that that way no um but the fact that they wanted to trade up for Romo dun uh that they drafted him as high as they did adding another piece to this offense after they already brought in Keenan Allen like they want to have a very explosive receiving CT and that’s going to hurt DJ Moore with the rookie quarterback I mean look he’s going to have an opportunity for some better passes from Caleb Williams because he should be a better passer than Justin fields and that’s not to knock Justin Fields Caleb Williams just an Elite Talent coming in the league uh but it’s just hard to expect him to dominate targets like he did I just can’t fathom that if Odun zanen and Allen are gonna have any semblance of the role that I think the Bears are expecting him to have so uh Mo’s ADP Adam you know just looking at like that’s crazy where he’s going like I can’t take him in the first three rounds at all yeah W wide receiver 17 30th overall yeah no way I think the the thing that I don’t like where I could be off um if I am is if the Bears are extremely like have a high high number of pass attempts with a rookie quarterback who held on to the ball for a long time and ran plenty in college I don’t really project that I’ve got them projected for 558 which is 45 more passes than what they threw last year and you got let’s see that’s uh 19 fewer than League average how many is that per game 558 divided by 17 is going to be about 32 32.8 I don’t think that that’s no I don’t think that that’s too far off well I think he was too far off being 0 eight away from the answer I that was but like 32 like no Keenan Allen’s not gonna have 10 targets per game eight nope oh well then why do they trade for him uh I think they traded for him because he has a friendly contract for this year and he’s still a really good player and they want to surround their quarterback who holds the ball a little too long and moves out of the pocket with guys who can get open short intermediate and long and the guy who’s gonna get open short is Keenan Allen he’s gonna be their slot guy you’re gonna see him in the slot huge majority of the time he said as much so he he he could get seven targets a game that wouldn’t surprise me okay well listen I have Target the game could lead the team we have a lot of we’ve done a lot of mock drafts I have not drafted a bears receiver once I don’t think it’s probably not true but I have not set out to do it the only one that I would Target right now for me is Odun I feel like Keenan Allen is dropping so much that let me see where he’s going dun is going 96 keen and Allen is going 60th the other thing that about this is like yeah no that that’s a little high right but the two of them mo and Allen are cringey to me but the the but Alan Allen at 6 is way more C DJ Moore 30 what gets me here is I kind of look at it a little bit like the 49ers and Keenan Allen keeps missing time and he’s old so if we took Keenan Allen out of the equation then we’d probably be fine with DJ Moore in the third round and I just I don’t want to like I you know I don’t want to bank on Keenan Allen getting hurt but if he does then we might really regret just if if you are someone who’s skipping DJ Moore you might regret that maybe maybe you just take Odun late and and make up for it that way well I don’t think DJ Moore will be nearly as good as he was last year on a per game basis but I still think he’ll finish as a top 20 receiver he also had just two massively unbelievable games yeah I bet that that evens out this year yeah but he also had the bent era like without Tyson no I’m just saying like he he had two two monstrous he did and they were against what Denver when Denver was the worst defense ever Washington yeah uh he averaged 19 points per game with Justin Fields last year in PPR that’s like like incredible yeah that’s not happen he was at 16.9 he’ll be a little lower than that uh how about Jared gof I know I why did I put Jared GF in here it’s like not even that different just I barely ever talk about Jared G I’ve got something to say about Jared G yeah let’s do it you’re the high guy you have him 14th Jamie has G 18th Dave has him 19 19 so that’s significant because you have him ahead of Jaden Daniels and Justin Herbert for example he’s last two years and we’ve talked about this plenty on this show he when he’s indoors he’s a set it and forget it no doubt about it starting quarterback 23.7 fantasy points a game last year 24.7 fantasy points per game the year before this was one of the guys and this is the last piece of magazine content I promise but this is one of the guys that when I was doing my research for guys like if you wait forever at a position and you’re just drafting dream to start the season Jared G’s that guy home Home Dallas Minnesota home like I he’s going to be in my opinion a must start quarterback for the first third of the Season at least okay he opens with the Rams then the bucks at Arizona and then Seattle then a buai tons of Dome games I think he only has like two games this year Outdoors something mean I can look and see but it’s not a bad schedule uh I think he Bay and at Chicago that’s it and at San Francisco in week 17 so unfortunately two of his road two of his outdoor games are week 16 three three outdoor games he’s at San Francisco right that’s still that’s pretty good great guy to pair with with Williams or Daniels if you want to see the rookies early on and just start gol at Green Bay in week nine he is at San Francisco in week 17 so let’s talk about the rookies then let’s talk about Caleb Williams specifically Heath you have him 20th Jamie has Caleb Williams 12th Dave 14th I will just fire a shot I can’t believe you have him 20th that’s way too low he’s the number one overall pick he’s a tremendous Prospect he’s going to run for at least 500 at least 400 yards potentially a lot more than that we don’t even know what he’ll run for and he is walking into I don’t know if this is true but I’m gonna say it anyway arguably no I’m not even AR the best receiving core that a rookie wide rece that a rookie quarterback who’s actually GNA start has ever walked into in NFL history uh no I think that part last part is probably true if he’s going to run for more than 500 yards I think that’s a really bad thing for all the Bears pass catchers and he might but there’s just no way you’re gonna have a high volume pass offense with a quarterback who’s running for 500 yards um except for Josh Allen I don’t think he’s probably going to be Josh Allen in year one I just I’ve got Daniels ahead of Caleb Williams I don’t know if that’s unique or not but I I am pretty skeptical of rookie quarterback passers and listen number two was awesome last year and made me regret not drafting any of them number one made me feel pretty good about not drafting any of them yeah 20th though is so low I mean it’s like uh you know it’s doesn’t it feel like you’re putting him behind guys who don’t really have big upside does it feel that way you are you counting Jared G as not having big upside you know based on what he’s done the last two years yes I think there’s more touchdown potential for him but I think 23 or 24 fantasy points per game is more upside than I would feel comfortable saying a rookie quarterback has unless unless it’s Richardson or Jaden Daniels who could run for thousand go has finished only around 20 each the last years right I know you just made the case he’s got all those in there yeah yeah but I mean he’s you know again just taking his body of work you know that right you know enough of a sample size that I don’t know how you could rank Russell Wilson ahead of Caleb Bo you’re the top 12 quarterback last year was he really per game I don’t know but but that’s his upside I I think Caleb Williams has top five upside maybe top six seven you know yeah I think for his career he probably does I don’t see that as a rookie I’d be shocked if Caleb had 500 on uh if you take away all the sacks that he has because in college they count sack yards against your rushing stats he had 85 carries 266 yards 3.1 yards per carry I would be shocked if he was a big yardage guy on the ground it’s the touchdowns uh when they’re inside the five that I think he could steal three or four from the running backs on um but if if we’re talking about being comfortable to begin the season would you rather start jarro G with a good schedule and a track record of playing well indoors with a healthy offensive line and maybe even a better receiving CT than he had last year or Caleb Williams who’s never started an NFL game even though he has an even better receiving core than what Detroit has I think I’d lean toward Goff in that situation get where he’s coming from yeah oh Justin Fields though I just will say that he taught me not that not to necessarily look at a guy’s rushing stats he never rushed for more than 484 yards in college in a season okay well neither I mean Caleb Williams Caleb Caleb needed to at time Willams and tell me that he doesn’t have major rushing upside much more than what he did in college and the other that’s the thing I like about him that’s a huge part of his game he has passing to fall back on right if he doesn’t rush for a lot he he can get there by throwing the ball Jamie I know you’re pretty high on Caleb Williams well it’s exactly what you said it’s the upside you know so um and Heath I think made the perfect argument you know and and sort of Dave laid it out the same way as well like you shouldn’t be drafting Caleb Williams to be your week one starter but you should be drafting him to be the guy that’s going to hopefully win you a fantasy championship and so you know you know Heath mentioned the the one guy last year CJ stra was a waiver wire pickup you know so you don’t have to be great early in the season to still be a star fantasy option you’d like it to be the case because you don’t want to be drafting guys to sit on your bench to open the season but um I’m have I have him ranked top 12 because that’s the expectation of where he’ll finish I don’t think the first three or four weeks of the Season he’s going to necessarily be a consistent top 12 fantasy quarterback so if you draft kale Williams and the same thing with j and danels ranked one spot ahead him at 11 I think you’re drafting those guys with a brock pie with the TU Tong of vioa with a jarro gof and Matthew Stafford any of these guys that you know have a little bit of a safer floor and if that other quarterback is producing a high level and you know as Heath said with jerek G the situation present itself presents itself that it could be but if those other guys play to their potential then Caleb Williams could be a top 10 quarterback I don’t think top five is realistic ad him but top 10 is is definitely on the table because of his receiving core and because of I think what he will profile to to run a little bit more than he didn’t college so I like the upside uh but again I’m not drafting him to be my week one starter no okay do do you guys feel I mean Heath you you have doubts about rookie quarterbacks do you feel like it’s getting better though first of all you look at rookie quarterbacks I think you really have to have a separate conversation about guys who go in the top five or 10 than anyone else right I mean we can’t compare Kenny picket to even Bryce young to the three who went in the top five last year uh but feels like they’re getting better you know like May field had a record setting rookie season Herbert had a record setting burrow was solid Richardson barely played but was good stout obviously I mean I don’t I don’t feel like we saw that so much uh earlier in our fantasy careers but I feel like they’re getting better did you say Mayfield he did he set the touchdown record that was like 10 eight years ago wasn’t it yeah he’s still one of the few rookie quarterbacks that did well right away um Tyler was okay Lawrence was awful Bryce young was awful yeah no I’m not saying they’re they’re a definite hit I feel like they’re getting better though I feel like it’s not as uncommon to see a rookie quarterback come in and do well personally no one else feels that way I don’t think there’s any Rhyme or Reason to it I mean you know we we guys last year one was completely terrible and one was amazing no I think that this I think that the NFL is starting to do I’ve heard this before they’re starting to do things schematic uh what what did you say SCH SCH uh schemingly schemingly that college that the colleges are doing and they’re sort of tailoring their offenses a it goes back to you know seven on sevens and how these guys are starting to develop at that age that they’re just understanding NFL Concepts better when they get to College it’s it’s even more expanded but yes the the it’s why you’re seeing you know some coaches making the jump sooner from from the college game because NFL staffs want them on their NFL coaches want them on their staff uh I I think that’s part of the development of these guys but there again there’s nothing that I I think you could say is is a definitive situation because again no just just looking at you know two of the guys last year you could say Bryce young too small whatever okay but he just didn’t play well after having a very solid college career I think any of the six guys drafted in the first round there’s still you know five because pen gonna play but uh the Five Guys drafted in the first round like it wouldn’t be a huge shock if B Knicks has a better completion percentage than these guys because of the offense that he plays and then the type of quarterback that is but there’s not as much upside so you know you can sort of dice it up I think any any which way is there an opportunity for Caleb Williams to be special sure but he’s got a lot of proof it’s just again you know what are you what are you banking on for me I’m banking on the upside because I think it’s a pretty good situation that he’s walking into another rookie too Brock py some he just mentioned his oh true yeah right well but then we’re including all rookie quarterbacks so we have to count Kenny picket and all those guys like if you’re just talking about the top five guys like there were three of them last year and one was awesome one got hurt and one was terrible and no none the year before and then the year before that there were three and they were all terrible there’s there’s been 10 first round quarterbacks in the last decade that have given you at least 20 fantasy points per game the year before that I think the year before that you had burrow Herbert and Tua and two of them were success stories Tua hu didn’t average 20 no Tua was the bad one Herbert was huge success he was awesome burrow barely made 20 burrow was good not great and Tu it was bad yeah and most of these quarterbacks get under 22 fantasy points per game so it’s not like they’ve got huge upside even stad was at like 21 and change Herbert was at 26.3 as a rookie he was even with this success I I still wouldn’t have high expectations for a rookie quarterback who didn’t run the ball a lot right didn’t have big rushing upset sure why Daniels is higher for me sure I get it and a uh a better bold prediction than your ADP one I believe Dan has said on the show and I know he’s doing it for a magazine that he’s going to set the rookie record for touchdown passes so Dan’s a buyer cayb Williams is yep yeah so as you recall last week I was thinking about I’m sure everyone remembers this probably thinking about it all weekend right I was talking about what stat correlates to receiver touchdowns would it be a DOT would it be explosive play rate so I did a whole bunch of research this morning uh you know what can we like can we predict receiver touchdowns based on either a DOT or explosive play rate and I will give you the results tomorrow because we are out of time so uh a little teaser for you there let see if we have any conclusions that we can draw from the last five years and looking at wide receivers who have scored eight or more touchdowns in that wait it’s right here in the notes yeah but don’t read it because we’re saving it for tomorrow yeah uh well thank you to Dave heathan Jamie and Thomas Schaefer for producing and all of you for watching and listening I’m Adam and we’ll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today