Key Stats For Making Picks At The 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic

The Golfbet crew is crunching the PGA TOUR database numbers to find the key stats that made recent winners at the Rocket Mortgage Classic so successful. It will be a birdie fest with the hot putters rising to the top, but what else about Detroit Golf Club sticks out in 2024?

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key stats for picking a winner on the PGA tour the rocket mortgage classic where last year Ricky got back into the winner circle and Tony fena in the summer of 2022 was absolutely on fire what do those guys have in common they all putted phenomenally last year in 2023 the top five players in putting at the rocket mortgage all finished in the top 10 of the event so key stats here Benny B what does that mean this week for Rocket mortgage it means it’s the shootout once again you’ve got to make some putts if you want to be at the top of the leaderboard two of the winners in the last five obviously since we’ve been starting this event we’re also top five putting they’re all in the top 20 putting uh you have to make hay when the sun shines if you will you have to give yourself a lot of chances you have to make them if you don’t you fall behind shootouts in the summer we’re used to those we’re excited for them we had one last week at The Travelers it’s going to roll on if you if you’re not fast if you’re not foot to the floor from the from the word go you get left behind and you’ll be gone this this key stats segment by the way folks it works it’s proven the data is true last week Ben you get credit for the top 20 that I picked Tom hogi for on the on the rain show on Golf Channel because Tom hogi was third in our big stat last week at Travelers of Strokes gained approaching 125 to 150 that was the one that you nailed down I picked hogi for that thank you folks this does work I don’t know why I got the celebration going mom behind me it’s very exciting because you know you talk about putting Ben but there’s also another angle to it because it’s not like just because you’re putting well means you’re going to play well this is our big stat this week 100% look all the winners in the top four for strikes Game T green because as it’s a shootout you have to give yourself chances you have to give yourself many chances if you don’t shoot five 600 a day you’re gone you got no chance so to do that you have to be on song TI green you can see Tony F led the field T green when he won in 2020 two Ricky F was third last year the other winners all inside the top four as I said so if you don’t give yourself a lot of chances and the chance to climb up the leaderboard then of course you need to make those chances we talked about with the putting if you can’t do that you’re left behind you’re no chance you might as well not be there so get ready to go low and go low every round of the tournament now is it more so approaching the green and heading the green as opposed to maybe off the tea because the numbers that I was looking at earlier today off the te really seemed pretty irrelevant you’re not going to have much trouble on this course around the green was also hit or miss it were those guys approaching the green to me that made the most sense when we’re talking tea to Green here in the first two years it was definitely sort of bomb and gou right you just smash the ball as far as you could and you hope that you could just get onto the greens from there uh they’ve made slight changes at sort of tree situations over the last few years to make that a little less of the case obviously being long never hurts but it really is the approach side of the things as you mentioned because you know if if you’re coming into these greens with shorter clubs great you’re going to get closer uh but that’s the key factor you need to be in tight you need to give yourself multiple chances at birdie and you need to limit the mistakes of as well like I know Tony feno he went through the whole the whole week with I think one bogey when he won you know like you cannot make mistakes you’ve got to survive a bogey feels like a double or a triple in some cases because everyone’s going so low right so you just you need to be on song you need to be a great golfer all four days he won at 26 underpar that’s the record here since the rocket mortgage started in 2019 at Detroit Golf Club so we’re going to go through the course here and some of the specific course nuggets that could help you make your picks and Ben outside of it being a birdie Fest you found something very interesting on Surviving the par 3es what does that mean specifically yes the ninth and the 11th hole there you can see they play over par in in a shootout week you think oh every hole is easy these guys smash it they can do whatever they want well not the case there are actually Four holes that over the five years have played to average overp par two of those as you see here are the ninth and the 11th hole that that are par threes if you can get through those without making major mistakes you’re going a long way to getting towards the winner circle at Detroit uh golf club uh fow and the others I think none of them played it worse than one over through the four rounds some of them better uh again it’s survival because what I mentioned earlier was if you make a bogey or a double they feel like triples and quads because everyone else is making birdies everywhere you need to survive those holes the specifically 9 and 11 and then and then you’re going to get to it I know but the other the other two holes have averaged overpar are 6 and 12 so if you think 9 sort of 9 10 11 12 on the weekend that is the key run for those guys in contention right they need to survive 9 11 and 12 and maybe try to get a birdie on 10 uh otherwise things could get rough from there so if these par 3es are playing over par maybe you pick a guy who does really well in par three scoring so something new we’re going to do this week yeah par three scoring that might be your Tom hogi liaison that we had last week right what we’re going to do from now on on key stats is the old debate of course history versus recent form if either one matters or if neither one matters or Ben if both matter so every week what we’re going to do is we’re going to go through the last three winners of each event and how they did on that course before they won and how they did the five events leading up to that win that year so our three guys that we’re looking at this week for history versus course form Ricky last year Tony feno 2022 and Cam Davis in 2021 I would say this chart white meaning their course history before they won here and blue being their recent form the five events right before they won that event that year I’d say course history means literally absolutely nothing Benny I wouldn’t say nothing but I definitely say it’s way it’s way down okay it’s way down from what uh before because there are some players who will get to a little later that have decent course history and that I think that might not necessarily win this week but that will factor in sort of the top Place markets but if you’re looking for a winner you’re 100% right Chris it’s got whisted that this course this um slide says it all Mis cut coming in miscut coming in 53rd coming in before they won they didn’t necessarily need to know the course to play well there but they did need to to be playing half decent half decent golf like you see Tony come off came off a win and Ricky fow came off quite a few what four in a row inside the top 13 the outlier there being Cam Davis but I can speak to that Cam Davis uh is a summer golf player he was uh struggling that year with a few ailments and a few issues and he’d finally gotten over that and was able to sort of come in fresh and play really well and actually played really well from that moment on so yes he’s a he’s an outlier but I still believe what you’re saying is correct I think recent form is where you need to look at this week so you’re looking at guys who have played well over the last month or so uh you’re trying to factor in though fatigue as well because we’ve had some big events so not maybe not necessarily someone who’s played five six seven eight in a row including our favorite for this week Tom Kim playing his ninth in a row something to something to think about whether you think he can maintain look he’s been playing great but will he maintain it I’m more looking at guys that have that have not necessarily played every week but that might could be look at who’s another guy that played well last week cam young shoots 59 was second here a couple of years ago right he was second here a couple years ago that’s the sort of thing you’re looking at okay he’s sort of bringing in some form I I do think that you need to look at that so if you want to look at the Statue at recent form you’re trying to find those nuggets like we just threw at you like part three scoring strikes game putting strikes game teer green marry all those up on on PJ tour.com and golf.com and figure out where the players lie guys who are used to getting in those birdie fests exactly what we saw last week so it brings us to our Strokes gain our top five players who are in the field this week I know and it’s vast different numbers of odds my boy alex on there Taylor Moore and Taylor pendrith two Canadians 20 M from the border Canada is from this golf course by the way uh Strokes gained these are the guys who were on the field per round since this thing started in 2019 these are your top five guys in Strokes gained per round what stands out to me is a guy I know you were pretty high on beforehand was Chris Kirk but for me it’s like Chris Kirk where has he been since January he’s been nowhere I’m going to try this out at you cuz it’s funny but Taylor Moore is a proud Texan so you’ve given him Canadian citizenship that’s awesome for him and awesome for the rest but Taylor pendrith is definitely I had Nick Taylor on the minday no worries all good Taylor Mo will have a chuckle about I’m G edit that out oh good I Nick Taylor on the mind all right go ahead these guys are on fire at this course as you said Taylor pendri really Pops to me there um because obviously he’s playing sort of career best has had a win this season and clearly likes this joint uh definitely on a approach and and putting he is the surprise for me I I had a quick look at Strokes game putting this morning for all players and saw he was right up there on the list um if you had asked me a year ago that was going to be where he was on the list I wouldn’t have said so so that’s good news for Taylor pendrith fans and all those actual Canadian fans out there uh Chris Kirk is definitely on my radar as a long shot this week he’s just the sort of the consumate professional the grinder that that knows how to sort of stay in the mix at certain courses and this is one where he’s been throwing up the odd low round and doing really well uh in the process so I think that his well-rounded game if he has his putter on needs it to be firing if it is firing he’s a good chance especially in the long shot category and your man Alex nin I’m you better be on him this week I’m not you better be I don’t think I am is does that mean you are going to be no I was going to leave him for you see that that that means it’s not a good pick well I think with Alex to me is always a place market guy okay right notar which might be which might be minus money at this point right so you maybe it’s a top 10 maybe you give him a bit more love at at top 10 and see how you go uh he’s also trying to believe it or not he’s not in the open yet um despite how well he’s been playing so there’s open qualifying on the line again I think that he might be sort of jazzed for that to try to make his make his move there and Troy Merritt well you know before we talked about how course familiarity in course history is not that important well for him maybe it is for this one guy because he’s in the last four years he’s been in the top 20 including a playoff loss here despite not playing well in and around it right so he just happens to be a guy that for whatever reason loves this place uh loves this course uh last last week I I said that AE ba was your long shot to sprinkle across all markets out right through the top 30 there’s a chance Troy Meritt might be your top 40 top 30 top 20 guy this week right like you’re going to get really good value for that um given how he plays at this course you know that look he’s been playing terribly of late maybe it’s a bit of a risk but it’s also a risk worth potentially thinking about because of the plus money odds you brought up AE I think it’s a great thing to end on as we start to marinate round table on Tuesday and who people might be picking based on all these different stats that we just threw out there think about AE this last weekend think about Tom Kim and think about cam young all three of them are going to be near the top on the odds board this week and if you want to call a spade a spade they are three of the big names this week playing will zures might not be in the form or the health that we want him to be you look at that three guys who all had a chance to win last weekend and ironically all three of them are are playing this weekend as probably the three favorites on Tuesday Ben I want to talk about you know does that automatically mean they’re going to do well this week because on its face I would say no as of right now I’m going to say this I think one of them will finish in the top five okay I haven’t worked out which which that’ll be uh but I think one of them will will will fire again again we talked about form coming in I do think that’s important uh but it is hard to maintain 20 plus under Pace yeah weeks in a row um I I’m probably going to be the guy that says the fade Tom Kim even though I loved what he did last week and you know thought he was brilliant but I just nine weeks in a row that’s got to hit you at some point especially if you’ve had that chance you’re in the playoff with cfle you’re feeling like you’ve got the got to run and then you’ve got to come down from that um I I just see him having one sort of I guess poor round maybe even the first round and then being too far back to chase right um but here he he might be a little different he he’s one I have to have to think on and marinate on and Camy young is on my radar even though he’s a bird guy he’s a biry fast guy um you don’t necessarily think of him as a great putter right like in general he made a lot of putts last week though like surprisingly a lot of putts surprisingly amount a lot of putts uh reasonably decent in putting last week and you got to think he’s taking Confidence from what he did you got to think that without being necessarily as I guess gassed from the furnace of at all right like the first two rounds were not Superstar rounds him not using a lot of energy 59 obviously does does do good does do wonders for you uh had a chance early on Sunday but ultimately it was going to be really tough to win from where he was because of what he did the first two rounds maybe this week is where we finally finally see him do well and it would be it it would actually be kismi because our fearless leader will gray is often a well-earned break this week he loves Camy picks him a million times he’ll probably win while will is not on the and that would be that would be brilliant but let’s be honest Will’s not going to pick him anyway because all of us are too stubborn I don’t know what anybody else thinks but when you blacklist a player they do not play well until you have completely thrown them off your radar and then they always come back to butt you cuz that’s what we love about golf gambling Benny rocket science rocket science at the rocket mortgage this week I golf that [Music]