Picks and Predictions for 2024 Travelers Championship

The PGA TOUR heads to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship this week. This will be the third straight week all the stars are playing, and they’re coming off a grueling U.S. Open at Pinehurst. We debate if there will be fatigue among the stars, or if that is too overblown. We have picks and predictions for outright winners, longshots and best bets.

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[Music] three straight grueling weeks on the PGA tour are these Stars really too tired from the US Open or are we making too big of a deal with that making picks this week at The Travelers Championship here on the round table Chris Bree Matt Delio and Benny Betts who says that these guys are dog tired and beware Benny not just me Scotty Sheffer the world number one says he’s dog tired says he’s you know just out from the last two weeks we’re talking not just two weeks of of of tough golf with tough competition but real grind golf the memorial was set up like a US Open the US Open was not only a tough setup but it was a million degrees out there just walking 18 holes got you tied and I you can take that as red because as you know know boys I was there it was tough and now you’ve got to flip the switch and go to a birdie Fest even though you’ve got nothing left in the tank I think that there’s something there we never had this before for unicorn situation but you got to start to think about who’s guas and who’s not I was just going to add so there’s a big thing that we need to figure out here is what kind of fatigue are we talking we talking physical fatigue or mental fatigue exact two are the they’re very different I think they affect different players okay now if you look at top of the board you talk about the big guys the big players their mental fatigue they can handle that they can handle going down the stretch they can handle all those things I think for lower level guys that’s really where you want to talk about down the stretch maybe they haven’t won before maybe they haven’t been doing great that’s the kind of difference that I think we should really talk about is mental and physical so what do we do here yeah okay what let’s look at the stats let’s go back to the stats though let’s see what our golf stats say Let Me Tell Maddie what his boy shefer said this is a quote direct quote last Sunday from the US Open to me I’d say it’s more mental but I think there’s definitely a physical aspect to it he said that this is really tough today on Sunday I made more of a conscious effort to make sure I got kind of my legs going in the swing that’s maybe something I’ll have to assess in the offseason I feel like I’ve played a lot of my best golf not late in the season but early in the season and that’s maybe something I need to look at whether or not I need to get more mental rest as the year goes on or maybe I need to get more physical endurance I’m not really sure which it is but I’m definitely feeling it this is from Scotty Sheffer direct boy and I I think both are important I think mental and physical are both equally important maybe so much more mental Than Physical but let’s do this guys let’s look at the actual stats that’s what we do on golf B here right so we got two sets of stats here’s the first one okay The Travelers champions of recent years how they did at the US Open the week before now I would say Ben I would disagree that the actual Travelers Champions it’s too big of a mixed bag to say that these guys were going to were going to do well based on the week before but last year is the most apt comparison because last year was Major into a signature event and you see there Keegan Bradley missed the cup with that in mind but what about Harris English look third I know but that’s Harris and this is a different brand is what I’m saying it wasn’t a signature event until last year we had 125 or 32 or 156 or whatever it was playing different tournament once we brought it into being a signature event with limited players that’s what we need to use so using that pegan Bradley missed the cut went on to win right me also no surprise to me because last year the Heritage Was Won by Matt Fitzpatrick who had an affinity with the area he cared more than perhaps other guys who were Gest because he loved the joint and did really well there also Keagan Bradley it’s like his hometown event he cared more While others were gassed and it helped him go all the way to the top you will be able to play well don’t get me wrong do not discount guys who play well at Pinos completely but I think you’ll get them in the top 10 top 20 markets is where you need to look at them and perhaps perhaps think of a guy that that’s a little bit more rested or players further down the leaderboard even who weren’t necessarily in the furnace of contention uh might be ones to look at I’m not guaranteeing it I’m just saying we do have to put our you know a thinking caps on when it comes to this unicorn of a situation three straight Tough weeks what if we look at what happened earlier this year with the Masters into the RBC let’s talk about Colin and lvic abber both of those guys went down the stretch at Augusta played fantastic the next week at the RBC we didn’t see much of a hangover at all with them I think that’s a similar situation that we’re gonna see this week those top guys I think everyone thinks that col Mora and lvic definitely are in this you know it’s it’s the fatigue question from major into signature I think can go beyond just Travelers in US Open if we look at the other majors and the other Signature Events that these players have played Ben te I was just waiting for Maddy to get on this train because I went deeper on this stuff to look at the Five Guys on the top of the odds board this week playing three weeks in a row how often do you think any of them won in their third week well none of them zero you want to go have a look ster hasn’t even played three weeks in a row this year the last time he did that was the playoff last year and he finished sixth at the Tour Championship Xander has done it three times this year actually three times this year 54th in the third week 5ifth and 23rd Mara cow he did it into the Zurich t23 did it into the Charles Rob after a major fourth Heritage you mentioned ludig T10 he was oh yeah okay fine let’s get let’s get on top 10 this week sure let’s get on him for a top 10 like I said there’s going to be guys who played well at the US Open that finish in the top 10 at Travelers but again Klay is another did it twice this year did not finish inside the top 10 on either of those occasions H that’s something to think about let’s go to the second stat cuz you you just started to bring it up let’s go to that second stat okay was the US open too much of a grind for these guys we’re flipping the switch now here flipping the script we’re looking at last year’s US Open the top finishers and how they did the next week at The Travelers Championship now I would argue that your result at the US Open doesn’t really play that much of a factor into how you’re going to do the next week at Travelers based on these stats Matt because Fleetwood was the only guy here who missed the cut I’m sorry Windam Clark is not going to come back and win back to back after a historic performance on his terms at the US Open I see this stat as looking good for the guys who contended at the US Open if they want to do well again the next week yeah I mean if you’re taking someone to win and they finish T4 like are you g to be that mad yeah obviously the BET didn’t hit but you came close and if you come close in golf betting that’s all you can ask for I mean there’s so many players in these field everyone’s great like it’s so hard to win outright if you’re coming close you’re going to hit at some point soon so I completely agree t7 T4 T9 that’s that means I was on the right track it means that you need to bet these guys top 10 not necessarily outright that’s what it means absolutely means it means that you need to bet a lot of these players top 10 this week because there will be a parlay of form as I said there will be guys that move in and do well but let me let me just give you something to see mat I’ve done your research for you as well here okay I’m giving you some information for your side of the coin thank you how many players that you do you think have won this season on their third or or more starts in in that row do you think there’s a lot many probably not a lot say there’s probably a couple I’d say there actually a fair few right let me tell you on their third start in a row Matthew pavon early at the farmers that was his third start in a row the Lowry Rory combination at at Zurich they had played Master RBC you want third in a row Taylor pendrith three starts did it in a row now four in a row playing their fourth start in a row Chris got her up one fourth in a row a AE batia had played three priz so he fourth star when he won hii matama little sneaky one boys a row a little love for Hideki now this week otherwise having not done so before he won Genesis after three previous starts in a row so was his fourth start in a row when he won there but the Iron Man the Iron Man sixth start in a row recently Rob McIntyre when he won the Canadian open he’d gone six straight starts when he won so what do you want do you want someone who’s in form and playing well or are you going to worry about the fatigue that he’s played too much like it’s it’s it’s a ying and yang situation I want I want someone like Hideki matama start make your picks I’m saying Hideki matama who’s proven that he can win on a fourth start this season and is still decent odds at 22 to1 which is different from what you’re going to flash up on the screen because prior to all that research I like Xander sh and that’s who I think he’s still going to be a contender his top 10 odds are crap in so I’m going to put in Xander shl as my number one as well look I like Xander as you know I think his stats profile here for all the other ends if we took out the fatigue thing we just spent 10 minutes debating this guy is actually the horse for the course like as simple as that he’s up up the top in par four scoring he’s up the top in 125 to 175 yard approach he’s he’s amazing strikes game total you need to be an approach player an a poter he does both well he’s won here before uh ridiculous odds I don’t like the odds I wish I hope you got before a Rory mckoy’s WD which was a little bit juicier if you didn’t I still think he’s a live betting play hope you can get him at 10 to one at some point if he’s in the afternoon wave or starts slow uh I do but I do think that Xander can handle the fatigue Factor we talked about because he had fallen back by the by the time we were talking about the weekend like he wasn’t a real chance uh Sunday after some early struggles so he was able to sort of just get it home and maybe conserve a little bit of energy uh and as said I’m throwing in the extra one though don’t sleep on hii Mets Matt um did you hear what this guy just did he contradicted himself yeah he Xander was absolutely mentally grinding the entire week at the US Open now granted he wasn’t in the mix on Sunday I get that Matt you’ve got a similar pick in terms of a guy who wasn’t really in the mix on the weekend and I I had to get off the Colin train because I was on it for too long but I don’t know if I disagree with this pick I mean everybody and I wrote this in expert picks it’s like if you miss out on cins win this year you’re going to be so mad at yourself because everyone knows that he’s so close to winning that’s kind of why I’m jumping on him this week the biggest thing I like for him this week is that putting within 10 feet distance he was making everything the last couple weeks I really like that this week because if his irons are playing like he should play throughout the year he’s going to make a lot of Birdie putts and actually the best play here I might look at is first round leader cuz that’s really to show you if Colin Mora is going to be down there in the stretch of this week because like we said you have to score a ton of birdies you have to putt well but you also have to hit really good irons that’s Colin morawa so I took Colin because I just know he’s so close but I really think the way that you can also do this week there’s about four guys that I wouldn’t hate for you to take you could take Colin you could take Xander you could take hland you can take ludic I think if you spread out a little bit of units between those four one of those guys will come really really really close and probably one of those guys will win Xander hurts a little bit cuz he’s plus 750 so your unit has to be small but those four guys with Scotty in the field there’s a little bit of juice where you can spread out some money and I really think you can’t go wrong with any of those guys let’s let’s say why he’s actually picking him he’s picking him to troll you and I who’ve been on the train jumped off the train we’ve jumped off the train and so because of that he’s going to do this and try to stick it to us just like I stuck it to him when sheer won two weeks ago he’s going to try to take the expert pick lead back again with he might I mean I I don’t I don’t hate the pick uh do you guys do you guys remember who was leading at the halfway point of the US Open yeah most people don’t remember that you know why they don’t remember that because of the drama of the weekend and look this guy had what two bad holes he made two triples on his third and fourth round that was the only reason why he fell back from the pack I think people forgot how good a golf he played in the biggest stage and clearly was not ready to take on the biggest stage in how to learn how to win the US Open because the two holes he doesn’t have that problem this week guys this is not the US Open L Vic has been playing as good as anybody out there on the PGA tour in the last handful of weeks if he can just be him and make sure his meniscus is not bad or whatever that that that injury is that’s the question that is a question but he’s proven though Matt that is it a big deal it clearly doesn’t seem like it is clearly it doesn’t but I mean there’s something there right like we’re talking about fatigue we’re talking about a guy who’s wearing a brace at the Masters like is it just over with is is he fine are we just going to accept it I think it’s something that might sneak back in and could bite I don’t know so for me this is the most interesting player of the week yes he is the one I want to see the most out of anyone to see how he responds to what he went through because look the mental you know gymnastics he had to go through there through the weekend 7373 the weekend to fall out better contention yet still plays such great golf in the beginning we forgot that the first two rounds I was out there I was with him he was the most impressive player through two rounds I know he’s Le easy to say but for me it was the way he played he looked like a veteran out there it was his first US Open I was stunned watching him going this kid looks like he’s played 15 of these uh and then then he blew up yeah yes but he made an early mistake and you know well that was it that was the end of him right right and you said and of course on Sunday he’s probably still a bit bummed about what happened on Saturday when he made the triple uh and he made an early triple there that’s an eject uh a quick ejection he knows he’s not going to win and he sort of he came in through so I’m I’m fascinated to see whether the the youthfulness in him allows him to be not fatigued right physically cuz he’s young or if the mental fatigue of what happened to him which is it’s a tough thing to swallow is what hurts him so I think you’ll find like I I I advocate a head-to-head against him uh because Patrick can’t didn’t you you guys all took KL over or didn’t you but only because you’re getting money you’re getting plus money from who’s a for canl is a former record holder there right I’m not I’m I’m not I’m not necessarily expecting it to win but it’s a it was a a numbers play right there is a chance that ludig does struggle to rebound there is a chance now if if he smashes KL by eight shots I won’t be surprised at the same in the yeah I love it CU can’t only showed you one week I mean it’s a little concerning trust Klay right now like yeah he showed up last week it’s not a trust him it’s a it’s a plus money play in a head-to-head battle a guy who is a horse for the course and we know when has Klay played well this year when he’s a horse for the course that’s all that’s when he’s played well this year and you I will say one more thing about L viberg though one more thing you said it wasn’t a major but it’s still a signature event how is he gonna Faire down the stretch if he’s in the mix of a signature event with all the best players in the world that is still up for debate I really curve that we may or may not know if he’s ready for or not we don’t know he wasn’t ready at the US Open this is different I will say and by the way guys uh before we get to Best Bets uh 24 years old exhaustion hits a little different than it does when you’re an old that’s fair it is that’s fair uh because the next guy I want to talk about both of you have the same best bet Ben and I debated this I debated this on Brian Harmon I just figured at some point he’s not going to have a great result at this place that’s why I didn’t touch four out of five in the top 10 the last five how can you not ex you’re getting 250 it’s it’s again it’s a numbers play he wasn’t um fully in the mix last week he didn’t play terrible uh he’s been having a decent season uh look it it’s just again it’s the numbers play for a horse for the course I think they’re giving you a little bit of juice which is nice uh I wouldn’t be surprised I almost touched him for a potential winner cuz he’s 40 to1 and that’s value that’s value there uh I I think he’ll be there or there about I just I couldn’t let it go it’s I don’t know about you MD but that I just couldn’t let those numbers go I couldn’t agree more and I actually say he’s playing pretty well I mean he’s nothing worse than a t33 in his last four starts and that includes the PGA Championship and the US Open so Brian Harmon’s playing well and he’s at a course that he loves I I just don’t I I don’t understand why you wouldn’t take it you know everything’s pointing up short course to but I didn’t want to get caught in that trap of just assuming he’s going to rise to the top because it’s a short course I I didn’t want want to just make that assumption yeah is his approach game cuz 125 to 175 was was our number right Ben I I didn’t want to get trapped into that and because I feel like that’s what really can get people off track is that they Zone in on one stat and think it’s going to happen I just I mean you say his his worst start is t33 the last four but I’m looking at these five last five on the bottom of the screen I haven’t seen him truly contend I get he gets four rounds guys but I I haven’t seen him truly contend in a top five I don’t care that he’s been great here I’m looking at recently and didn’t want to fall on the Trap of one stat then well I’ll say this he’s probably got the biggest gorilla on his back now because uh two of us plus I think will gray that is the death death he’s probably missing the cut by seven now that we’ve done this but uh I just think that he’s a bulldog when it comes to this type of course he he he likes to prove uh sorry he likes to sort of peak himself for the tournaments and the and the courses that suit him and this is definitely one that he circles on the calendar every single year uh he will expect to play well I know that much Matt I know you like my best bet my top 10 s the gala to me is exactly like oberg in terms of I think he could do Gang Busters here or he could have a serious serious let down I don’t think last week was his type of course I think he’s a lot like oberg we had is learned how to figure out how to play those tough unique situations in the US Open clearly it didn’t go well for him different animal this week I think sah has been playing way too well lately and one of two things is going to happen with these guys who’ve been playing well right Ben I harp on this all the time either they’re going to continue to play well and something good eventually is going to happen even better than it has before or he’s finally going to cool off I just think him being one of those younger guys who is so hungry and so eager to keep getting better and he was a lot like oberg couple of bad holes really did him in last week I really think theala can be a guy in the top 10 given he’s got four rounds to do it yeah play too big fan of that uh I mean I think I miss spoke earlier and said he missed the cut of theed I knew what you meant he should have he he was like five under in his second round on Saturday correct I think he shot seven over in the first eight holes or something ridiculous and so in my head I’d already ejected him out of the tournament he did fight back but then stayed what around even for the most the rest of the way uh so and and and again I but I still I see he was even final 54 holes yeah I see that has somewhat rested also you know former runner up here when he should have beaten Xander to be fair absolutely should have won that year when Xander won he coughed up late uh with a bad drive into a bunker and and you know just sort of the inexperience of Youth got him uh he was on my radar for potential outright so yes I think 240 for a top 10 as much as I’d like to you know put crap on your selection there Chris I don’t mind it Matt do you want to put crap on Ben’s long shot selection because it was the lwh hanging fruit Benny is that why is that the only reason running is he going back to back really is he going back to back Ben is that happening well when you say long shot you’re not necessarily expecting the guy to win you got him right on the Press you got him right on the edge I agree that’s fine it’s he’s 50 to1 which is the end of it and he’s the defending champ and he loves the area come on Madd you’re Boston boy or whatever up there I would love it all about it you should be like Keegan Bradley you’re my hero hero worship him you know he you know what you know he’ll probably be at the parade for the Celtics or something so may maybe maybe things go bad that way well maybe he WDS then because it’s Friday yeah he he couldn’t be there actually the reality here is you’re getting 50 to one on a guy who’s a proven winner just 12 months ago and as I said it means more to him I’m not I I don’t expect him to go back to back let’s be let’s be fair about that I don’t expect him to win but I absolutely expect him to be in the top 20 I think you know you can get plus money or just doing this for Benny in the bets it’ll go up later he on my card I’ve got him as a top 20 option at uh plus 125 and he’s he’s plus 300 for a top 10 so I think both of those markets are very good for Keegan Bradley uh when I say long shot can he win of course he can win Willie probably not but I do expect him to put a good effort out there while he is defending champion in his home region I didn’t want to touch it uh Matt I almost touched the a baa long shot I mean I I was this close I didn’t do it I I I put an expert pick before you uh and I looked at yours and I said oh wow I almost took AA yeah I mean because that’s that makes me happy that you were also looking at him but 8,000 I mean this is just an insulting number for aay like yes I get it it’s a signature event but there’s no way in this world that he should be plus 8,000 I think he should be more like plus 4,000 CU he’s been playing really well lately he was t22 at Memorial t16 last week at the US Open and he can show that he can win in birdie Fest he won with 20 under at the valo Texas open earlier this year and then he won Barracuda also the year prior so this guy can win when you have to score I mean he’s just someone that I feel like with the other people in that 8,000 range he should have been up there with Keegan in that 5,000 range so honestly I’m really just taking the number and maybe it’s something you can hedge off or cash out halfway through but 8,000 for OE at this course great great number man what were those last two finishes you just said for him uh from Memorial he was t22 and then t16 at the open you all right well I love that because as I said he was one of the guys when he won it was on his fourth in a row start he was t17 t11 into winning uh I’m saying that you’ve actually got a smash play here in the place markets ring the bell all of a sudden all of a sudden I’m telling you top 20 and top 30 must be good decent money for this guy so uh yeah I watched him closely too last week definitely a contender in the future for a major championship good point man that he won in a birdie Fest and went deep you are definitely getting value on this guy uh definite value my long shot guys is out of nowhere uh Kurt Kama when you say he’s been off the radar Ben he really hasn’t been that far off the radar I mean if you want to go look at Players previous results whether it’s you know last week or 3 months ago you’re not going to find very many miscuts from Kurt kyama what I really you might find like one or two what I really like about this guy this week you talk about not needing to hit it long like Brian Harmon we’ve harped on that 50% of shots being from 125 to 150ish yards third on the PGA tour in that stat can he putt that’s the question can this guy putt but if you want to go 150 to one on somebody who chop in half the amount of guys he’s got got a beat compared to what he had to do when he won the API 2 years ago I like it 150 to1 call me crazy I wouldn’t go outside I would not go outside anywhere except the plus 125 for a top 30 that you could possibly get for he missed the cut here last year I just check that uh that’s a problem for me uh you’re right though if if he is going to if he is going to pop somewhere potentially with those numbers it would be here uh but but plus money for a top 30 when there’s only what 71 guys I think he I think his top 20 was plus 250 okay well yeah there you go I again when we when we took our long shots we long talking winners we’re talking about guys who can get in the mix and make you some money in any kind of Market yes correct so uh for me I wouldn’t necessarily go down to 20 but I’m you know that’s that’s a little thing to think about definitely 30 though there’s not usually top 40 markets in these cuz it’s such a a smaller field but top 30 if you’re getting plus money and you like them those stats are important we talked about that it’s 50% of all approach shots this week will be between 125 and 175 you have to be dialed in on that number if you’re not dialed in there you are going to get lapped and then you have to make some putts which is what the only reason we mentioned you mentioned Colin Mar Mara is your pick Maddy you said he’s been putting well he has to putt well it’s as simple as that it’s the same for me like I like keki now as it’s coming in but if he doesn’t bring his putter just just forget it eject right like they have to they have to make more than the name miss you know what he would be he’d be gone gone absolutely gone fun boys we’ll see you next week and see if this mental fatigue is a big deal