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Stanley Cup finals specifically coming up with the Panthers trying to take a three to nothing lead over the Edmonton Oilers tonight uh series back in or goes to Edmonton I should say for the first time today uh Paul Carr will join us the Euro Cup is upon us let’s do an intense uh Euro Cup analysis with Paul Carr and of course it is Thursday that means unscripted with the crackman bill krackenberger of course Kelly uh we will update the uh MLB winds in June also that market as well uh we must begin with a quick update at the US open at Pinehurst where uh my only bets Kelly my only pre- flop bets here on everything ended up being as I mentioned yesterday Sheffer top five at minus 135 top 10 minus 235 I did out an I did add an outright on him at plus 305 and I also took based on your answer of my question yesterday who is the most Andy North type golfer on tour and while it’s not a exact comp I liked your answer of Brooks kka I ended up taking him at 22 1/2 to1 the early early leaderboard has Kea and Matthew Pavone both at two under uh kka through eight you said pavones was a fake two under with an eagle I believe it still counts I’m checking with of joking yes you on the part five he like just made it so yeah see if he takes a step back you’re also looking good if you bet uh Tim weiding or Frederick kjud up uh good on you cuz they’re one under there you go early at the US there’s a whole bunch of folks at one under Sergio one under morawa one under through seven Tony fena one under through seven ludvig Oar one under through seven so hella early I believe they St on the golf tour yeah some big first names there I did make a couple first round bets in case anybody’s interested one of these guys that started already but I did do we talked about those MGM offerings of like the top five top 10 first rounds that pay in full so that’s how I decided to attack first round today I bet uh Xander and moraa both top five uh both around five to one um for first round today and then sep straa took a little bit of a longer shot with him he’s he him and Xander both te haven’t teed off yet uh if you’d want to get involved uh top five on SE staka is 11 to one okay uh NBA rip pour out a 40 for your Mavericks tickets man I apologize for that see you three to nothing Celtics best of seven NBA Finals plural Celtics now up three games to none with their win last night over the Mavericks in Dallas Katie Bar the Door one 699 Celtics win it as three-point dogs they win it outright plus 124 on the money line uh 0 and55 the NBA historical record of teams that fall three to nothing in a best of seven postseason series and that is why we say ktie bar the door for the whole thing uh Dallas opened up 9-2 uh 149 into the ball game yesterday they led by as many as 13 in the first quarter did you at that point have the thought in your your head we’re all so stupid of course the Mavericks are going to show up and of course this is going to be a series and we’re going to come in tomorrow and this is going to be a totally different theme not really I did for a second if I’m being honest no like and that’s where like I’d love to be honest but the when they caught back up I was like oh here we go that’s where I yeah then the Celtics had an 11 to nothing run they cut the 25 to2 lead to 25 to 23 Maverick’s only led by one after the first quarter brutal first quarter beat brutality what was like 25- 13 is 25 to2 25-2 you’re up in the first quarter and the final two plays of the first quarter Luca Jack it up shots falling to the ground complaining to the refs and it’s a easy Boston basket the other way five quick points sorry if you had Maverick I’m going get to Luka because I see stepen a and windhorse and all these guys are on this the bandwagon that we we first mentioned weeks ago about Luca um second quarter so it’s 3130 Mavericks after one first lead for the Celtics was 32-31 that was over two minutes into the second quarter it was a high-paced scoring first quarter second quarter grinded to a halt Dallas led by one at the half 51 to 50 was actually pretty entertaining first half Kyrie had 20 Luca had 17 Tatum had 20 for the Celtics and then the third quarter began and that was all she wrote very Boston second half very Celtics went up 66 to 59 after an 8 to nothing run then 71 to 61 for the biggest lead then another seven to nothing run a little later to go up 13 now they’re up 13 then they led by 15 after three that was still their biggest lead and then they start the fourth quarter with two threes to go up 21 91-70 so in other words a 41-19 run to start the half and you’re like okay well this is done well not quite yet because then the Mavs did that thing where they like kind of act like they’re going to come back this was like a really big Act of coming back they almost did this uh 12 to nothing Mavs run to cut it to 91 to 82 and then all told it was a 20-2 pardon me uh a 20-2 run to make it 93 to 90 with over 6 minutes left this was unbelievable with 525 to go same score the Mavericks had you it was a onep possession game Jason kid calls a timeout and Luca becomes irate with Jason kid for calling the timeout you see that he ready to go down the other blocking Jason kid for calling the timeout uh Dallas has three possessions to cut into the lead further they go 0 for three in the meantime Luca gets his fifth foul with 438 left then his sixth and final with 412 left on a blocking foul which withstood review by the way when the foul was called Luca then looks at his Sidelines and said you better bleeping review this yeah I think that was some carryover frustration from he wanted the challenge on the fifth foul which which I was a little bit more 50/50 he fou fouls out 27 six and six the only six that mattered was another six though was six fouls so the Mavericks if they’re going to do this are going to have to do it without Luca Kyrie hits a jumper now it’s a 22-2 run 9392 Celtics did you think at this point that it was going to happen I mean lcov the court I mean I was hoping and praying I was hoping and praying here’s where I was like I have no faith in this happening like I just didn’t I never really felt like this was going to happen at this point I mean you know it’s Luca’s off the court you’ve seen what the and Kyrie have done the whole game and meanwhile you check the box score and you’re like oh I’ve gotten I’ve got 30 like 30 points out of the rest of the Dallas Mavericks and that’s who you have to rely on right now brown on a followup to make it 95 92 then an offensive foul on PJ on a screen on Drew white with a three 9892 and at that point it was just you know they were never going to K Kyrie was fouled by Drew he had two free those 9894 232 to go but a Tatum Jam back up six Lively followed Jam to cut it to four Tatum did miss a three and then Lively all alone I don’t know how who how they lost him Kyrie hit him with a dunk it was 198 but then the dagger as Steve Buck used to say in DC a brown jumper 10298 with under a minute left and a a missed three by PJ Celtics turnover that Al Horford strange turnover where I had a couple by the way I don’t know if he was out of bounds or like I don’t know if he was out of bounds or if the ball was out of bounds I never saw that he was and they’re like Mavericks ball um Kyrie wild three where he was fading to the right no good white fouled on the uh on the uh rebound Katy Bar the Door white hits both they’re up six at that point anyway 10498 they end up winning at 106-99 um again one by the way a short changes 156 and0 all time uh for teams up three to nothing in best of seven Series in the NBA Tatum ends up with 31 brown 38-8 brown is the short shot to win MVP by the way thank you uh I I was told yesterday on Twitter that it is a Nevada gaming rule that once the series starts they can’t put up MVP more so thank you Nevada gaming you saved me money as I said they would I by the way I now that I even know that it’s a gaming rule what’s the justification for it what’s the reasoning how dumb is that I mean I would I would I would like to say oh that feels like something we should remember from years past I don’t remember that but like I don’t remember it because of what you just said how does that make any sense doesn’t Kyrie 35 and defeat so here’s my again my thing with Luca and we said this weeks ago on the show I did which is he is as great as he is he’s an anesthetically pleasing that was my phrase an anesthetically pleasing player to watch this ain’t the Warriors right this ain’t joic with the passes this is a guy who plots and yes he’s wonderful offensively but he’s anesthetically pleasing anesthetically pleasing to uh to watch play basketball and then on top of that you add the fact that he’s terrible on D let’s just throw that in there too but he whines about everything and now you and we said this that he’s always whining at the refs and a rick bar if you want to go back Generations Rick Barry used to complain every single time he was called for a foul like it was just a thing with him Luca has gotten to the point that now he’s he’s at the refs he’s at his coach he’s all these things and now you finally see when I walked in here windhorse and Stephen A finally killing Luca for this like ESPN has finally got on the bandwagon for this he’s got to change if they’re going to get to the Mountaintop on this yeah I think this was the uh this was the perfect example of that I mean you’re you acting like that throughout the game literally cost you the game I mean I mean you can look at you can point the finger at the rest of the guys I mean you only got 37 points from people not named Luca or Kyrie like I understand that but I mean we talk about the end of the first quarter and there was a lot there were several I’m not like with with a player like him like LeBron James like James Harden like Giannis like there yes there’s a lot of fouls that happen during the course of a game that don’t get called but you can’t let it affect you um like it like it does for him uh and it’s Doris Berg pointed out one time he’s just Lolly gagging he didn’t go back on D you know that happens a lot with him so so game four and I hesitate to even bring this up but it’s tomorrow night um potential Sweep game Celtics were a slight favorite last night now the Mavericks are in most places Again by a point point it’s like a point do you want any part of this at all 2 11 and a half now the the total has ticked down a bit not nearly as much as the final scores would have you tick it down yeah that is interesting actually sweep or gentleman sweep right these are the only options here yeah absolutely I think it’s probably just done in four I mean just like like yesterday when we talked about it I there’s no reason I’d be going to B back Dallas right now I just don’t know what you’ve seen they tried they’ve tried almost everything at this point they finally put Hardway out there no CBA that didn’t matter that didn’t help at all the one thing I want to bring up real quick though how like in Another Universe Luca doesn’t foul out they win that game last night oh my gosh we’re sitting here crushing Boston for doing the same Boston thing over and over again 100% we are that’s why the NBA Playoffs is sorely game fours when team is up three to nothing the sorest of all squirely I want no part of it we’ll come back Jake Con on the Stanley Cup Final next want to level up your sports betting game then you need to become a vis Pro subscriber for limited time get a v Pro subscription at a special price of just $199 and you’ll get an extra month absolutely free that’s 13 months of Von for the price of 10 Von Pros get access to daily Best Bets sent to your inbox every morning unlimited Pro articles petting splits and more go to von.com subscribe and use promo code football to become a vison Pro today for just $199 and join the sports betting Network looking for the Ultimate sports betting podcast vison has got you covered with a wide range of podcasts covering every major sport we’re here to help you make smarter bets every season hardwood handicappers offers daily NBA analysis and picks from vent’s Top hosts and experts and check out long shots where we Deep dive into the World of Golf betting providing you with expert insights to help you bet every tournament find all of these podcasts and more at von.com podcast or your favorite podcast platform elevate your sports betting game with Von’s exclusive betting slips stay ahead with realtime market trends and track bet percentages on any matchup then UNC cover the Edge by comparing them to the amount of bets placed to find out where the sharp money is headed upgrade to Vin Pro to access betting splits live odds line moves power ratings and in-depth game analysis go to vn.com proo to join Vin the sports betting Network this is Von senior MLB analyst adamberg let’s face it between bad managers and umpires like Angel Hernandez 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June what now 12th no 13th that’s within 17 days Kelly I don’t if you know that mhm um that’s the big thing that’s happening ultimate resource for the football season packed with detailed team Division and Conference analyses and of course Best Bets for the upcoming NFL season don’t miss out on this limited time deal visit von.com subscribe right now and use promo code to claim your discount bonus month like a numbers game thank you sir that is von.com subscribe now and use promo code Skil Alexander it’s Kelly billin you’re totally right about the uh and and I mentioned this yesterday how we would have completely changed our narrative on everything had the Celtics win particularly as you say they they went scoreless for 2/3 of the fourth quarter wild eight minutes right where they didn’t score a point by the way here’s Luca’s quote after the game talking about uh talking about the referees he says uh we couldn’t play physical I don’t know I don’t want to say nothing that’s my Luke accent by the way we have him talking about if you’d like to hear oh do we oh I don’t know you probably men we absolutely do hear from L himself does he say something here uh yeah yeah he talks about the ring at the end well it’s only one more line do we need to hear him that’s fine no go ahead finishing your he just says you know six fouls in the NBA Finals basically I’m like this come on man be better than that so he’s like completely blaming the refs for this um yeah that’s that doesn’t do any good by the way Steve fzk has texted in he objects to my use of Katie bar the door he says I believe this is a southern American expression I said yes Steve I grew up in DC we’re kind of below the Mason Dixon line if not Southern Southern basically means trouble lies ahead I love the expression but I think it’s more applicable early in the game rather than when the game is clearly lost he adds I’m such a pain in the blank that last part is certainly true Stephen I must tell you no I appreciate the Love on the thing but I can only tell you that yes while you are correct that the origins have to do with like securing a door because there’s trouble ahead oh no secure the door that the way it was used is when it’s over just lock the door it’s done why was that always Katie’s job why couldn’t have been somebody else’s job why did she always have to Bar the door you know that’s what I don’t it’s k a Ty y so I’m not really sure what that’s about this course man this course Mor cow just hit one out of the bunker Jake’s not going to be happy to hear this either because we’re both on him he just hit one out of the B out of a sand trap that Gil you would you would be jumping up and down if you hit this good of a shot I’m sure I would and it just cruises by the cup and it keeps cruising for about 45 more feet right off the green and then has to chip back up finishes with a double bogey he’s back to a one over let’s bring in J con the aformentioned J con who uh joins his talk hockey but is also a big uh of course uh golf guy because he’s got bets and he’s got Colin Mora joins his courtesy the progressive gu guest line right now how you doing Jake uh I’m doing great guys I was doing much better about 10 minutes ago before that morawa uh double bogey like you said things were things were going really well for me this morning my my two outright bets morawa and Brooks Kea both at the top of the board playing together fing grasscourt tennis bets were coming in this morning as well Gil which I know you’ll absolutely love and we’ve got a a Stanley Cup playoff game to breakdown tonight so yeah a little better 10 minutes too I I could have done without that that morawa double bogey that Kelly broke yeah kka and Pavone still on top two under for the early part of the US open at Pinehurst uh how was your grasscourt Tenn has bin mine not so good to start yeah pretty good I I did play it was quite this morning I will say a couple of of favorites parlay together Mato bartini clo just closed it out for me uh to hit a pretty nice bet so that’s good it’s nice when you could pay for the golf card uh as as Kelly probably knows this is someone that bets golf heavy if you can pay for the golf cart on like a Wednesday night a Thursday morning you feel pretty good you kind of feel like you’re free rolling the thing and uh maybe maybe even leave some room for a for a live ad later we’ll see how this I’d like to see how the cour is playing sometimes in the morning then look at some uh some afternoon tea time see if maybe there’s a there’s a guy I want to jump on yeah that’s my problem dogs aren’t barking dogs are not barking on the tennis tour right now okay um and then the golfer you said Kea who are you rooting for who makes you the most money here uh well it technically would be more Kawa but I am on Brooks as well it’s just once it got to a number I I got I got in at 26 to1 I did see some some people jump in at some 30s around there as well but once I saw the 26 beside Brooks’s name I thought you know it was kind of between him and Bryson for me and I still do really like Bryson he can bomb it down this course this isn’t necess necessarily your your longest Us open track uh but I still trust Bryson around the greens and to kind of manage this golf course as well so he’s someone that’s teeing off in the afternoon that I am still looking to possibly get behind watching how this course is playing so far I still do like Bryson and that’s an ad I’d be willing to make feel like the uh the sentiment about brys and to Shambo just as a personal thing has changed completely dramatically I’ve I’ve done I’ve done at least two 180s on during his career like I loved him when he was coming up and then he like became the you know the nerd scientist like trying out everything thinking he was smarter than everybody and you know put on a ton of muscle that got old really quick and then he went to live kind of disappeared now he’s back and he’s been awesome to watch I think recently and he’s and he’s cuddly he’s throwing golf balls to kids and then if they don’t get to the right person he gets mad about he’s doing that he’s moving the uh remember the uh was like the directional pull out of the Masters or whatever he just like ripped out of the ground and moved it out of the way cuz it was in his way that was great all right Jake we’re back in Ed we’re in Edmonton for the first time we’re back in Edmonton playoff wide tonight so game three first time going to Alberta for this Stanley Cup Final Edmonton down two games to nothing uh they’ve only gotten one one Puck by Sergey babski but they are minus 138 favorites tonight uh against the Florida Panthers what changes here well obviously it changes going back to Edmonton they get the home crowd you can argue maybe you get an extra call on home I sometimes as well that could sway the official I don’t know if that’s necessarily going to be the case but some people do believe that and look like you mentioned Gil this has really come down to Sergey bosi Florida’s Florida played an excellent game two the game two that I I watched Florida Play was the game I expected Florida to play all series long they didn’t really get to it in game one I I thought they actually had a lot of trouble with Edmonton and had to rely on boski too much but game two was kind of the the perfect formula Edmonton had six shots on goal total from their forwards in game two and uh they came from McDavid dry cidal and Heyman so no shots from anybody outside the big boys up front for Edmonton which just speaks to what Florida can do defensively and you mention it only one goal given up by bosski so far and it was a two-on-one which was his first shot of the game in game two he hadn’t faced any rubber all game and then all of a sudden has to face a two-on-one it squeaks through the five hole other than that he’s been perfect so when Bob gets in one of these zones it’s it’s tough to go against him guys and Edmonton’s getting a lot of respect I think in the market for this game Florida actually closed around minus 125 uh in game too and we’re seeing Edmonton hovering around minus 135us 140 even in some places as well which is more respect than I thought they would get in the home games in the series I’ll say that we used to have a in DC grown up we used to have a a Sports Talk radio host by the name of Ken beatric used to be on W radio and the Caps were terrible in their early years just awful but he used to scream on the radio every night he used to be like shoot the puck he was like you’d be amazed at how many wacky things happen when you just shoot the puck off the board off a rebound coming off the boards whatever um Edmonton was seven shots on goal in the first two periods I mean that’s the first thing right just like assert pressure I I think what Florida is doing too is really clogging up that middle of the Ice uh when Edmonton is in the offensive zone and forcing them to shoot from from the blue line right and if you look at the shots on goal that Edmonton had in the last game almost all of them coming from defenseman I mean Bard is ripping shots really in both games and we expect him to have a lot of shot attempts as a guy that basically plays half the game but you can’t have Brett kulak with five shots and your entire forward group with only six shots so Edmonton has to find a way to get into that home playay area it’s fine taking shots from the back end like and like you mentioned go you can get a bounce you can get lucky you can get a rebound from Bob or it can bounce off a leg but at some point they got to get into that high danger area and that’s something Edmonton really struggled to do in game two so what’s the bet here someone landing on this right now they’re like okay I I’m showing up for hockey what’s my bet here either in this game or the rest of this series yeah so so far this Series has actually gone according to plan at least for how I mapped it out in my mind I thought Florida would win both home games I thought they would be relatively lowc scoring and that’s what we’ve gotten so far and I felt like Florida would win one of the games in Edmonton so is that game three is that game four based on the odds that I’m seeing right now guys I just can’t go against the Florida Panthers right now getting plus money with them really in any spot I just have to continue to roll with them I I fully expect Edmonton to come out and throw the kitchen sink tonight they have no other choice I I do think they are going to shoot a lot more and try to get McDavid activated in their top players because this is a desperation spot for them so I fully expect that it’s just when boki’s dialed in this way and I’m getting the Panthers at at plus money they know what’s on the line here a chance to take a strangle hold in a Stanley Cup Final and get that much closer to to hoisting the cup so I’m just going to continue to roll with the Panthers here and take the plus money if you believe in the Panthers and you you see the series prices north of $4 doll but bab rossky isus 200 on KH SMI do you play it that way is there anyone else who’s going to win this besides him if they I know last time yeah last time I was on with you Gil you mentioned Bob and he was at a better number at that point I I think at this point you just got to roll with Bob because he’s playing that well um I made the case for Sasha barov and I I still think he’s an excellent player that the media will love if he has some big moments but uh this is a bob Series so far one goal uh through two games and he looks absolutely locked in so it feels like if the Panthers do win this Stanley Cup the the kite is going to go to Bob all right Jak con everybody uh by the way you can follow Jake jayon for on Twitter co-host of the point the fantasy hockey show on SiriusXM NHL thank you sir enjoy game three yeah you guys as well and enjoy the uh enjoy the golf this weekend let’s let’s hit a winner good luck with that as well we’ll come back Paul Carr Euro Cup summer in front of us it’s a numbers gameing V the sports betting Network we’re this close to crowning an NBA champ and with the action heating up on court it’s even hotter at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA download the draftking Sportsbook app now and use code Bon that’s code Von for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets when you bet just 5 bucks only on DraftKings the crown is yours gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or in West Virginia visit www.1 1800 gambler. net in New York call 8778 Hopey or text open Y at 467 369 in Connecticut help is available for problem gambling call 8887895118 ccpg please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas 21 plus age varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance see dk.com bball for eligibility and deposit restrictions terms and responsible gaming resources want to level up your sports betting game then you need to become a vison Pro subscriber for limited time get a vison Pro subscription at a special price of just $19 9 and you’ll get an extra month absolutely free that’s 13 months of Von for the price of 10 Von Pros get access to daily Best Bets sent to your inbox every morning unlimited Pro articles petting splits and more go to von.com subsscribe and use promo code football to become a Von Pro today for just $199 and join the sports betting network if you didn’t catch sharp money here’s what you missed so more than likely the tigers are going to finish below 500 so let me make my argument for scoble as to why he should at least be in the conversation his erra is 192 big guy his batting average against 192 his batting average against matches his ER which is ridiculous he leads the AL in whip ridiculous he’s top five in the AL in war ridiculous and he’s leading the damn league in whip he’s ridiculous what he’s doing this year is fascinating and another great he just hasn’t been bad that’s just the bottom line and again 10 and three with them 22 and 30 without them so it’s going to be judge it’s going to be SoDo it’s going to be one of those donks but you can start to make a case why at least there should be a number posted for my guy T scoble who’s been awesome sharp money with Patrick Maher weekdays at 3 p.m. Eastern on Von the sports betting Network at V we’ve got you covered before during and after every game jump start your game day with Tim Murray and Jonathan vonel on decent prime time at 6 they’ll get you ready before the first tip puck drop and Pitch ensuring you’re ahead of the game then stay in the loop during all the action with the Greg Peterson experience at 9: and as the night wraps up join Matt yans and West Reynolds on Vis tonight at 11:00 giving you the first look at tomorrow’s lines to get an edge on the next day’s bets all this and more only on Von the sports betting Network this is V senior MLB analyst adamberg let’s face it between bad managers and umpires like Angel Hernandez betting on baseball can be brutal but my daily article is here to help every morning I go through each MLB matchup and give you my Best Bets of the day I analyze pitching matchups study analytics look at lineups and even weather reports all to find Value on the baseball slate my daily article is only available to Vin Pro subscribers to become a subscriber head to v.com proo [Music] today attention NHL betters the Oilers and Panthers are battling it out for Lord Stanley’s cup and Vin’s got you covered from the first puck drop to the final horn stay updated with in-depth analysis and daily articles written by VIN hosts and experts Best Bets delivered straight to your email and up to the minute betting splits so you know where the money is being placed become a vent Pro subscriber and unlock access to everything we have to offer at vn.com proo and join the sports betting Network a numbers game on vent the sports betting Network to you by Zin nicotine pouches America’s number one nicotine pouch that requires no timeouts or halftimes Zin is a smokefree spit free hassle-free nicotine pouch that can be enjoyed anywhere any time it’s available in 10 varieties and two strengths and delivers up to 1 hour of nicotine satisfaction find yours in at your local convenience store or online at zin.com that’s zyn.com warning this product contains nicotine ni is an addictive chemical thank you Ryan Skil Alexander Kelly bidin numbers game live from bar Canada at the D Barada The Barrage I just wanted before we get to Paul Carr and talk Euro Cup I just uh did the simple division on this as well obviously uh with the Panthers up two to nothing in the Stanley Cup Final and the Celtics up three to nothing in the NBA Finals uh there is still there’s still time for Edmonton and Dallas to change these numbers but to this moment this is the average number of wins in both the Stanley Cup playoffs and the NBA playoffs by the losing team in a best of seven series average number of wins this postseason in both the NHL and the NBA for the losing teams in best of seven Series in the NHL it is 1.47 wins for the losing team on average thus far 1.47 so in other words they’re not getting beat 4 to one but it’s getting damn close as the average more shocked by this one than the NBA one in the NBA it is 1.2 wins that is how horrible forget the betting part of it but just from a competitive standpoint how poor these NBA playoffs have have been 1.2 wins on average Dallas still has could say something about this but 1.2 wins on average in these NBA playoffs for the losing team well wouldn’t you say I mean both Sports though NHL I mean you I mean you always talk about the how many games would it take right that implies that we think that there that there is a better I mean less of a chance that you’re going to see sweeps and stuff like that Randomness yeah that’s the stats by Lopez one which says that 80% of favorites get through in the NBA Playoffs but in order for 80% of favorites to manifest in the NHL you would have to play a best of 51 not this year you know what’s the best part about this is Gil has that that stat completely memorized I’ve heard him say it in my in my company at least like 27 times and I I still can’t even I can’t remember cuz you don’t pay attention to what I say do you know what it is in baseball I just set you up G you know you know what it is in baseball best of 75 okay all right that’s how that would go to get 80% of favorites through uh Paul Carr is a numbers guy he’s the host of the expected value podcast he works at True Media networks and he joins his courtesy of the progressive guest line to talk Euro Cup what’s happening Paul y soccer never stops we got International Tournament starting this weekend next so we’re back in the saddle ready to roll what excites you more just your standard Premier League season little Champions League Euro Cup or World Cup rank those for me I mean World Cup is number one period because it’s the biggest best tournament there is although well the one in the US I’m super excited about because it’s here the format’s pretty wonky and there’s too many teams but that’s a different thing uh yeah I think for me it’s anything International just because that’s kind of how I came to it first through the World Cup and then learn these other you know euros and Copa America and things like that along the way so I I love the international nature of it I love the geopolitical undertones explicit or historical whatever they are especially for euros gets uh interesting sometimes yeah it’s all rolled up into one big fun party of soccer or something does the book soccer nomics still hold true that essentially what was the what was the conceit of that book essentially population size is the number one dictator of this as that money you know how much leagues have to spend you know why is the Premier League the best league because they have the biggest TV contracts like it’s not just that simple but it kind of is uh you know why why do Barcelona and Real Madrid dominate La Liga because they don’t share Revenue the same way and they get a higher percentage of the TV contracts again there’s more to it and there’s history and all that but yeah It ultimately kind of comes down to those things in most countries all right the odds to win ufa’s Euro 2024 in Germany uh France and England are the short shots at plus 350 Germany Paul cars Germany yeah plus 550 uh Portugal 7 to1 and Spain 8 to1 everybody else is digits we’ll get to that explain the format first to us if you would all right yeah this is and this is slightly different than some tournaments you have your group stage and then you go to around of 16 and it’s a knockout from there so straightforward there but there’s 24 total teams so you have six groups of four so that means you get your top two that advance but you also get four of the six third place teams advancing and what this means is your odds to advance or odds to qualify will look wonky there’s a group or two here where every team is favored to advance which obviously all four cannot but because the third place team has a pretty good shot to advance that’s what the numbers will look like so got to be aware of that this tournament doesn’t really start until you get to The Knockout stage because it’s it’d be a super super shock if any of the top teams didn’t get through interesting all right well let’s talk about those top teams I just mentioned France and England plus 350 Germany plus 550 we already know Paul’s on Germany uh we don’t even have to ask him uh Portugal 7 to1 Spain 8 to1 what whatever down the board how how do you feel about the favorites themselves uh I’m not real high on England and and I say that expecting them to get to at least the quarters or if not semis uh they have a lot of attacking Talent their defense is kind of a mess with injuries and their manager Gare Gareth Southgate is more defensive minded which is okay you tend to be that way in tournaments but you know they lost Euros three years ago in the final in part cuz it couldn’t open up and put the attackers on late and try to get the goal that would have won it uh so not convinced that he quite can do that so I kind of fade England there I think France is the best team they do have some injuries they’re dealing with mbapp is a little bit questionable at least early but they build into tournaments on the whole and they’re such a veteran crew having won a World Cup and finished runner up that I think they’re the best team so if you threw odds out the window then France would be the team that I would pick to win this have the most confidence in them to go deep here and the case for Germany I know we’re joking about it but your case for Germany is is well they’re Germany so I have to pick them no um well so this tournament we should say is in Germany so you have some HomeField Advantage which can be worth you know a third to half a goal per game you know on average historically so that’s something uh Germany has been in a tough spot the last couple years they went out in the group stage of the World Cup but they have a new coach julen nelman who has turned them around as much as you can say that about a national team in a short time they beat France they beat Netherlands in March so they’re looking pretty good they have as much talent as you would expect any team to have so it just seems that you know they’re where they normally are in those top three four favorites it’s just been a rocky road to get here so that plus you’re playing at home means you’ve got as strong a case as just about any team all right and if I said okay Paul I come to you from the future a long shot ends up winning this what is the long shot play here Spain is not long enough of a shot they’re plus 800 which I don’t mind that either the problem is they’ll probably play Germany in the quarterfinals then obviously you still have the semis and finals to get through uh Croatia you get around plus 4,000 some places kind of a almost over sleeper team in the sense that look they made a World Cup final they made a world cup semi-finals they’ve never really done it at Euros getting past the quarters uh but that just kind of speaks to the depth of the tournament this and I I feel like I say this every tournament this is probably the last gas for Luca Modric in the Midfield and a couple other guys on Croatia but they just have the experience uh they have the talent they have the knowhow so yeah if if some one of those teams over like plus a thousand is going to make a run that’s one of the ones I would look at all right uh let’s talk Golden Boot we have a history on this show with you of of uh of betting Golden Boot and I remember uh was it the Euro Cup that we did this in or was it the World Cup where we bet romela Lukaku to win the Golden Boot and we got Harry can as I remember it was the I believe that was the 2018 World Cup yes yeah so with that as a backdrop what are we doing so we’ll try it again right oh no I do like we are I have a Lukaku plus 1600 ticket uh and again it’s the same logic it’s you need to be on a good team yeah Belgium is by far the best team in their group and the group stage is where you win these golden boots very often uh it’s a weak group for Belgium so you know you hoping he piles up three or four goals at least in the group stage and they get a couple of games at least out of The Knockout stage which they should uh Lukaku takes penalties he’s the clear-cut number one Striker for Belgium uh they’re also a very you know attacking mind a team that’s where the strength of their team is so you would expect them to play into that so you know he’s the what fourth or fifth favorite or so so this is not going out on a super limb but yeah plus 1600 Lukaku is the one I like here okay cuz he he you’re saying he is absolutely the PK guy for for Belgium here as much as anybody can be yes okay CU I I remember he didn’t if memory serves don’t hold me to this but he didn’t take every one of them last time years ago yeah so sounds right yeah um but he should he should be the guy the the only the question around him is will he play every game you know he’s 31 I believe so you know does he take a group game off it’s possible uh that would be the downside if Belgium say wins their first two games they have first place virtually locked up uh they might try to rotate a little bit so that that’s what the risk that you’re running in with Lukaku here okay we’ll get to your other bets on the other side which is teams to advance and uh group bets and that kind of thing um but last thing on on Golden Boot should we not also just make a bet on Harry just to protect ourselves on this because is emge just and just I just to have PSD right um from that situation and he’s always taking penalty kicks and he’s just the guy and so I just wonder if we should do that it’s not terrible you know Kane and B are the short shots but you know they’re short shots for a reason so it’s not an awful thing uh there’s also like you know Kane and England a win type of markets that you can get a much better price again they’re not directly correlated but there’s obviously quite a bit of correlation there so that’s another fun way to look at it if you want to Pi that angle all right Lukaku 16 to1 we’re doing it again Kelly let’s go all right uh Paul’s got some more bets four others in uh prop markets we’ll do those on the other side we’ll update those June MLB win totals as well it’s a numbers game at v e sports betting Network DraftKings given a bonus bet back if I lose so I don’t have to sweat my bet NBA Hall of Fame of Patrick Newan now you know all about sweating break it down force a no sweat bet it’s kind of like an offensive rebound you miss your first shot you get another chance to score he supposed to shower after the game 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a.m. eastern the Lombardi line 7 days a week right here on V the sports betting network if you didn’t catch V in Prime Time here’s what you missed you’re looking at this schedule it is incredibly manageable for the Atlanta Falcons they have a massive upgrade at the quarterback position which was a complete Nutter disaster just a year ago and you’ve got terrific weapons you’ve got bej Robinson you’ve got Kyle pittz you’ve got a really good offensive line I look at this division very getable if Atlanta doesn’t win this division they’re the odds on favor to do so it would be a pretty big disappointment for the Falcons it is a big upgrade right from what they were last year 7- 10 overall to 9 and 1 half wins I’d rather have them to win the division personally than over 9 and a half uh just because this division stinks and as we’ve seen before you could in theory win this division with a losing record V Prime Time with Tim Murray and Jonathan Von toel weekdays at 6 p.m. Eastern 3 p.m. Pacific on vison the sports betting Network so Paulie have you had a chance to read the VN daily yet yeah came in at 3:00 a.m. what’s Bill doing up that late well rumor has it it’s starts off with a 12-hour meditation session then he just pours himself over film and live TV really focusing and taking it all [Music] in fills in with the biggest insiders talking Trade Secrets strategies the whole nine absorbing the info and then and only then can the writing process begin in Las Vegas Bill’s late night becomes your early morning wake up to the very latest betting insights in your inbox with the VN daily sign up for free at vn.com newsletter looking for the Ultimate sports betting podcasts vison has got you covered with a wide range of podcasts covering every major sport we’re here to help you make smarter bets every season hardwood handicappers offers daily NBA analysis and picks from vent’s Top hosts and experts and check out long shots where we Deep dive into the World of Golf betting providing you with expert insights to help you bet every tournament find all of these podcast and more at von.com podcast or your favorite podcast [Music] platform a numbers game on Fe the sports betting Network we are this close to Crown again NBA champ with the action heating up on the court it’s even hotter at DraftKings sports book and official sports betting partner of the NBA download the draftking Sportsbook app now and use code V that’s code VSS for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings the crown is yours by the way Kelly earlier I referred to myself as from the arluk Kaku uh Golden Boot bet from 2018 I referred to myself as having PSD uh you may be thinking that I meant PTSD that would be post-traumatic stress disorder uh I wasn’t traumatized but the stress right after the stress then I had the disorder it was just the stress yes the post stress disorder that’s right that’s right I meant to say PTSD I also meant to say Sergey bosski so I’m over to today uh we had tweets at be of the book uh this is I I I meant to do this in the in the recap first of all Roger Roger Jones text uh tweets this in I meant to do this during the recap but he points it out he goes guys forg my ignorance once again but I was hoping you would explain this play on the recap but didn’t late game Mavs inbound Celtics grab and pull arm tells ref hey I grabbed him yes I meant to say this so the uh we often talk on this show about hey when you’re up three in a late game situation in the NBA you got to foul the opponent don’t let them get a three off it’s not available 100% of the time as we’ve pointed out as well there are some situations where the way the play develops you can’t do it but generally speaking that ought to be the philosophy well in Joe missoula’s case up six I loved it he wanted to do the same thing up six with a little more time left same philosophy just extending the the philosophy of that a little more and Derek white desperately tried to yank on Tim hard away and the ref missed it and so that’s why Derek white was like hey I found him and Hardway ended up missing of course he yeah he BRS the shot didn’t matter but that was what it was about even Hardway though was like he you could tell he stopped for a half like a half second P like all right well I just got fouled oh wait they’re not they didn’t blow a whistle I guess I should shoot this that’s the I mean that’s what all the NBA analytics guys right they keep they’re line is well wait till these guys figure out figure out when you should foul when you’re up four and yeah I was it was impressive being up six last night I was like yeah this is that’s how you do it just end the game end it I just wish Joe missoula’s postgame interactions were less awkward I know man I I go I I go so back and forth on that guy he has the most unbelievable ability to make any question awkward yes he does he’ll he’ll do that stare thing for like 3 seconds and you’re like you have to answer now so I think I think the one that every everybody says about him cuz this is true I think both on the court and off the court and a lot of times good on the court with what he decisions he’s just stubborn he’s a very stubborn guy yeah like it’s interesting uh good for him if he wins it though right yeah I mean I think when when you’re making good decisions like some of the ones he did last night you be stubborn about it Paul cor uh Paul Carr rather rejoins us to talk Euro Cup he’s got a four more bets we won’t keep the whole time here courtesy the progressive guest line but Paul I wanted to get to uh more prop bets that you made here as a Euro Cup begins tomorrow correct does yeah we start with Germany and Scotland tomorrow so we got day soccer which is maybe that’s my favorite part about the European one especially it’s just it’s Day stuff there’s things going on it’s great to you know keep an eye on you got a half watch if you got work to do things like that all right how about teams to advance sides to advance what do you got here all right yeah so we talked about how you know four of six third place teams were Advance will advance so these odds maybe look a little weirder than you might be used to so there’s very little value when you get up into the the top teams because they’re just super heavy Jews as they should be um so I’ll start in group a this I have Hungary to advance I got this at minus 130 uh I play this a little bit worse if it’s down there Hungary is kind of a team on the rise they were at Euros four years ago uh they looked pretty solid and qualifying they’re built on a solid defense they have got name Dominic schas who plays for Liverpool in the Midfield he’s kind of you know these midsize countries have to have like one big star usually if they’re going to make a run he’s the guy for them so uh and also and kind of fading the rest of the group in a way not Germany because I think they’re good obviously but Switzerland is kind of just a you know average type European team I don’t think Scotland’s very good at all so you know Hungary beats Scotland gets a draw against Switzerland they have four points that gets you through at least as a third place team so yeah Hungary minus 130 to get through that’s group a you also have a play for a side to advance in group Group C which is England’s group if you will dud this I have Slovenia here at plus 170 which surprised me that it was it was that high of a price uh so Slovenia has a couple key pieces here Yan oblock is a top five top 10 Keeper in the world has been for several years so you got a great keeper you got a A kid up top named Benjamin cesco he’s 21 years old he plays for RB leig uh Arsenal Chelsea Manchester United are all after him uh they may or may not sign him this offseason so you’ve got two key pieces there and again the the rest of the group after England not that good Denmark is old I don’t think they’re you know they remember that big run they made in the semis three years ago Christian Erikson had the heart issue and all that well a lot of that team’s still there which is not necessarily a good thing uh Serbia we saw at the World Cup can’t defend even though they have some decent attackers so I like Slovenia at plus 170 to get through they finished level with Denmark on points and qualifying and just lost on the tiebreaker so yeah plus 170 I think is a real nice price on them and Christian Erikson doing just fine and dandy now just what a yeah what a scary scary moment that was on the world stage uh back then okay and then Group D which is France Austria Netherlands and Poland you have a last place bet here yeah so I will admit this price is probably not there anymore I have Poland to finish last at minus 125 I played this several days ago and since then Robert leowski who’s their best player even though he’s on the decline for sure uh he is injured and can’t forget if he’s out for the tournament but at least for a game or two so if you can get this atus 150 I would still play it much past that getting into a little bit dicey territory but uh yeah Poland is prly under achieving uh this is a tough group France is really good uh I think Austria is good Netherlands is solid as usual so Poland’s just by a fair distance the worst team in the group and they tend to not do well at these tournaments anyway and if levandowski is out even more so so yeah I play them at minus 125 to finish last all right also in group d uh you have France Austria on the Dual forecast is that uh soccer for Exacta one two uh dual forecast means top two in either order in either order okay yeah I believe straight forecast is what you’ll see if you want exactly one two and that’s you know so I have France Austria dual forecast at plus 270 so either order uh the straight I think is plus 450 or something like that um so France is France I don’t need to explain that too much there’s Talent is anybody etc etc um Austria though good team one of their better players David Ala plays for Real Madrid he is injured not in this tournament but you know they’ve shown they haven’t necessarily needed him the last couple years last year or two they’ beaten Croatia Italy Germany uh and just that manager Ralph ronuk who knows what he’s doing he’s implemented a style a pressing style that catches a lot of teams off guard I think it may do that for the Dutch and they have a lot of you know guys from these top clubs like oh yeah Marcel sabitzer from gery or from Dortmund he’s on this team and arnovich from Inter Milan he’s on this team guys like that so real talented team I think they can get through in second place so yeah France Austria dual forecast plus 270 all right so Hungary to advance minus 130 group a uh Group C Slovenia to advance at plus 170 Poland to finish last in group D at minus 125 France Austria the Dual forecast in either order France Austria or Austria France at plus 270 also in group D Germany to win the title that uh we could have bet on I wish 6 to one and then romela Lukaku for Golden Boot again Golden Boot for those who don’t know an award given to the player who scores the most goals in the competition our guy Lukaku at 16 to1 Paul thank you as always man you bet enjoy the soccer you too Paul Carr everybody at Paul car on Twitter from True Media networks and of course the expected value podcast uh before we get to crack Kelly we want to update the most wins in the month of June in Major League Baseball cuz we have a bet on the Asos here at 25 to1 yeah not so much right at the moment as the Astros lose two of three because of giants magic Kelly that’s what happened uh so here they’re a bunch they’re bunched a group of teams at six wins with varying degrees of losses uh but at the top it is the Yankees at 9 and2 and as we look I also uh do run differential one run outcomes and the games remaining in the month of June so the Yankees are 9-2 they’re plus 27 and run differential remember that’s the second tiebreaker if you happen to bet it at Circa Circa it is fewest losses in the event of a tie followed by run differential best run differential at William Hill Caesars it is a dead heat situation so right now the Yankees at 9-2 are the leaders plus 27 we’ll do it by cira tiebreaker one-run games Kelly they’re 0 and one do you know why because the Yankees Crush teams when they beat them there are no one-run games the only one run game they played they lost they’re 9-2 how about the Orioles in second they’re 9 and3 you know how many how many one run games they’ve played three they lost them all wow nine and3 and they’re 0 and3 in one run games in the month of June got to be better Mount Castle plus 39 in run differential so think about that that was wild the Orioles the victims of the one-run outcomes but they do have one more game remaining than do the Yankees 17 to the Yankees ring 16 so they they both have nine wins Yankees 9-2 Orioles 9 and3 then it’s the Reds and the Mariners tied at 8 and3 currently the Diamondbacks are the only team with seven wins they’re seven and four after their loss yesterday and then it is the Phillies Dodgers Pirates Astros and Nationals all with six wins but with varying degrees but remember the problem with the Astros is they started out as we pointed out with fewer games on the schedule so they only have 14 games left which is a great thing if you’re winning ball games but a sucky thing I believe is the technical term when you’re not so they are behind the eightball and therefore we are behind the eightball currently most wins in the month of June his name is Bill krackenberger he’s unscripted he’s next on a numbers game at vison the sports betting Network we’re this close to crowning an NBA champ and with the action heating up on court
