Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s U.S. Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Intro
01:41 – Best Bets
11:21 – Course Preview
20:06 – Outright Bets & One and Done
56:33 – Placement Market & Leans
01:24:44 – Bet365 Promo
01:25:29 – Rapid Fire
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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorNickBretwisch #BlueWireVideo
hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is our 2024 US Open betting preview it’s the best Tournament of the year it’s our national championship the US Open heads to Pinehurst number two this week which is one of the main host sites for the US Open and for good reason we’re expecting it to be an awesome Championship firm in fast conditions not going to get a ton of win but honestly we might not even need it there have been some awesome videos of the golf balls being dropped on the green and rolling into who knows where off the greens here at Pinehurst number two it should be a fantastic tournament and some proper Championship golf unlike what we saw at valal last week month we’re excited to get into it and I’m very excited to be joined by Nick brwi whom you can find on Twitter sticks piix and also Spencer agar who you can find on Twitter SLX tof Sports gentlemen we all had call Mory Kawa last week we all finished one shot short of Scotty Sheffer let’s get back at Scotty Sheffer and catching out right on the US Open for the second time in as many years we had Windam Clark last year let’s see if we can do it again this year before we get into our outrights we’ll talk about the course preview we’ll talk about our Best Bets right now and then we’ll also go through the rest of our cards talk about any exotic plays we made talk about our one and DS we had some momentum after last week Nick and I both had col morawa and then we’ll get into our rapid fire go down the board and talk about as many golfers as we can without going too long for you in our US Open betting preview but first Gentlemen let’s get into our Best Bets Nick I’ll sling it over to you first I heard there’s a wild Hammer kid running around North Carolina that’s right uh we’re going back to the DP World Tour found an edge over there potentially we’re going with Richard Manzel top 40 at 4 to one all right long shot top 40 play couldn’t do it last week because top 40 Market not very viable in a 72 man field but this week full field 156 golfers which means the top 40 Market is back excited to get into Richard Manel in a second Spencer what is your best bet for the US Open this week I probably would have recommended Christian Baden Hal over Adam hadwin that was a price that moved before we filmed this show and it’s a very minor difference and we’ll talk about it later of why I still like that bet but it’s a very close Gap that I have between that wager and minwu Lee minus 114 over sep straa straa has been one of the hot Commodities on the PGA tour recently this is not necessarily the prototypical answer I’m going to give of where I think the market has overcorrected itself but I do think there’s still value to be found for multiple reasons in this bet okay sep straka really hot like you said but Spencer is not afraid to take him on this week for my best bet I’m going to go into a very specific fade I’m going to go Kurt kyama over 72 and a half in the first round but before we get into kyama and minwu Lee Nick why are we bringing the hammer kit out for Richard Manel top 40 plus 400 yeah it took uh it took a lot of research I haven’t really watched a ton of this guy’s golf but did watch some videos of his swing and he has honestly been one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the DP World Tour he’s long he’s accurate his ball striking in general with the green and Regulation and the iron play is fantastic he’s sand save I believe his top five on the DP World Tour overall I think seven of his last nine events he has been inside the top 25 over there and we’ve seen a lot of great talent come from the DP World Tour over to live and over to the PGA Tour so he is playing with solid players which means a lot to me but I just think the market in general has kind of like forgotten about a lot of the DP World Tour guys and they don’t really know how to handicap them I’m sure that number probably will move especially with how much I know my friends have now put on it so bet responsibly 101 but um similar to Jordan Smith at the PGA Championship I think it’s a really good course fit for a guy that’s an excellent ball Striker his putter is Dreadful in terms of like actually Strokes gain but he is inside the top 30 on the DP World Tour in three putt avoidance which I think will be a big one here and a short game solid so kind of checks every single box the slim data that I did have and then kind of put in the expected data that I like to run with he I had this price close cler like plus 350 which is still a very low implied probability of him getting inside the top 40 but 30 points of value in the top 40 market and just keep riding these DP World Tour guys that I seem to find at these majors in the top 40 Market I’m gonna keep going that he’s also a favorite for whatever this is worth in a round one matchup against Daniel Burger let’s go I mean that’s I think Roberto would be favored over Daniel burger right now um but I mean he’s just in general like I kind of want to go over the past two years his ball striking at the DP World Tour has gotten so much better since he kind of got embarrassed at Brooklyn I think it was one really bad round he shot seven or eight over um so he’s got us open experience and I think he really took it to heart of like what he needs to get better at especially when you know fellow DP world I or guy like Matt Fitzpatrick wins that one I think he’s pretty close to Alex Fitzpatrick as well over there so just a guy that’s really been working on his game and and hopefully can make a name for himself pretty soon first in pod play of the major championship I’m going with Manel top 40 plus 400 so you can join you can join all my friends that hate me when it when he finishes like 41st let’s hop in um we we got some George Smith money to play with so uh shout out to him for making Birdie on the last hole to cash our top 40 at the PGA Championship Spencer why are you backing minwu Lee against sep straka who’s been on fire lately yeah as I said at the beginning of this show this is a much different spot this week than the typical overcorrection that we get in a price after a few quality showings I have been very bullish on straa for the past two or three months we’ve seen him post five top 16 finishes over his last six starts average 4.52 shots to the field T to Green over that span I don’t necessarily expect any of that to change overnight for a golfer who has been trending inside my data for the past 12 months I think for me though I view this as a situation where the recent form that we’re we’re having here is negating a lot at least in the price here is negating a lot of the poor statistical data where my model is projecting him to really struggle potentially at Pinehurst my math ranked him 89th when combining long iron proximity plus around the green data 75th for weighted bogey avoidance 88th for weighted scoring and 74th for expected Strokes gain total at Pinehurst it does feel like we have a situation where his lack of length and and it’s going to be very important to find Fair ways here and and I do lean towards accuracy players over the distance golfers I do at the end of the day the one who probably wins is the longest and the straightest golfer but really more of where my answer stemming from here is that we get this overabundance of approach shots from 175 plus yards I think that could put a lot of stress on his middling long irons the strength of his game always comes from within 175 yards and if he starts missing Greens in regulation which every everybody’s going to miss greens here with the the green complexes that we have and now all of a sudden he puts the stress on his 115th Place grade for weighted around the green performance there are real concerns that he misses the weekend kind of saw a similar mentality there at the PGA Championship where the course was too long for him it’s the one venue that he hadn’t found success at recently I don’t think it hurts this situation that we also get a golfer here in Min woi that I am very bullish on for this tournament so you know I talked about Baden Hal and over hadwin being another play that’s very close to me this is 1 a 1B you can kind of flip a coin of which route you want to go but I find myself or I have found myself in all these spots pretty much all in on the Min wo Le takes so while this is not necessarily fully backing Min wo le as it is fading sep It’s a combination where I get to still fade straa and do it with the golfer and minwoo that I do really like think it’s an interesting matchup with mmu Lee being somebody who has Elite length second on the PGA tour in ball speed which means he’s third in the World Behind um Bryson Des Shambo also who’s not factored in but also great short game we saw him pitching in from everywhere at the PGA Championship as well and the putter can get red hot he loves his long irons too so could be a very lucrative matchup and it’ll be a lot of fun to back mimu Lee regardless of how he plays uh Great Character and electric golfer for my best bet I’ve got Kurt kyama over 72 and a half I’m playing this one very light probably my lightest of any best bet this year at just 0.25 units uh it’s less of a fade of kyama as it is backing the golf course and I wanted to do this in the first round totals Market because that’s going to be the first chance to back the golf course and if it’s playing really tough that day it’s all going to be baked in for the next couple days couple days and not going to be able to get an edge so if you get a chance to I’d like to back the bar I’d like to back the course early on and KK kyama is coming off of the Memorial tournament we mentioned only 72 players in the field he only beat two golfers last week he shot 76 he shot 80 in the first two rounds missed the cut he had a horrific putting week horrific approach week and I’m not necessarily expecting both of those things to happen again I’m really expecting him to play well on approach but this is a par 70 this week and there are only two par fives one of them is over 600 yards the other one’s I think 590 is yards plus or minus three yards there it’s going to be tough to score there are no drivable par fours on this golf course the par 3s on the scorecard yardage are all at least 180 yards all between I think 184 and 228 yards so you’re going to have a ton of 175 plus yard shots and in which just means it’s going to be really hard to make birdies if you don’t birdie both the par fivs not a lot of birdies out there looking at the total number of birdies in the first round Market haven’t seen a number this low haven’t seen numbers this low throughout the market all season long it’s going to be really tough to score because every hole you’re just gonna be fighting for par Kurt kyama is not a very good putter we mentioned the very poor putting form last week he could be ping ponging it on on and off the greens with the putter I wanted to back the course he’s in the afternoon with an 1152 tea time so the first round is going to be playing pretty firm he’s never made the cut in the US Open he’s played three times before missed the cut all three times I like the golf course to have an edge over Kirk kyama I’m not saying he can’t play well this week or get a relatively High finish I just think over 72 and a half at minus 110 is decent value so I’m going to back the golf course early on against kyama as he tries to find his form following a really rough week last week at Jack’s Place mentioned back in the golf course and we’ll get into more detail on the golf course here at Pinehurst number two right now Spencer what are you weighting in your model and any general observations on the course this week since we haven’t seen it since 2014 when Martin kimer won here by eight shots yeah so designed by Donald Ross it’s been restored twice over the past 50 years by Robert Trent Jones in 1974 uh once again in 2010 by Corin krenshaw much of what we saw from this property in 2014 when it hosted the US Open should still be likely relevant today Ross is always known for these diabolically unique around the green complexes that can Veer away from your standard expectations of what we see on the PGA tour weekly that’ll be no different here since you get these turtle shell greens that have the propensity to repel shots entirely off the surface sometimes that can be up to 30 yards away from the hole it can move it into traps and these tight lies that add to the headache of the construction all of that on its own would be challenging to try in Traverse because of the complexity of the track but then we also get what becomes an excessive number of shots from 175 plus yards that are going to be played into these fiery fast greens that have not received much rain in the area recently golfers have talked a lot about how balls aren’t holding the surface on their second shot players have talked about that they’re being forced to putt with three Woods other unique variations from off the surface once they do miss the green many of those explanations and and I’m very curious to hear what you guys had your takeaway with it because we don’t have a ton of data past the 2014 iteration of this but many of those explanations pushed me into this direction of where I weigh Strokes gain approach a little bit less than usual my thought process there was that if players are receiving a reduced G percentage from long distance we then get this increased for in the projection for total driving around the green performance I don’t want anyone listening this to think that I’m talking about more than just a few percent decrease in that area although a lot of what I’m talking about there is going to be the highlighted nature of my build of I want to see how someone performed when you took combined long iron proximity add it to around the green data I want to see how you execute your shots from 175 plus yards versus any of your simplified approach projections elsewhere I added a little bit of the higher Apex players like I put Apex numbers in my model there’s going to be an ability to hold these greens more likely if you have high ball flight coming into there if you can kind of just drop them in um but my model essentially delivered a very specific approach Outlook that took that exorbitant amount of data from all of those areas specifically from 175 plus since I just kept weighing it over over again and I rolled it into one total there are going to be some unpredictable runouts with a driver in hand anytime you get fast and firm conditions that’s naturally going to move shots into those areas here we have Sandy areas we have what they call wire grass there’s gor bushes there’s a lot of places where you can miss and Roberto talked about this at the beginning a little bit or maybe we talked about this off fair I can’t remember which one now but uh where accuracy is going to matter here and this is a very standard usop test to where the most high-end success that you can find will come from the player who is long and straight that’s typically who we see win the tournament but that ability to be a Fairway finder and have the ability to either hit your long irons or scramble around the green some combination of that is what’s going to be able to keep you in this contest where you might not be able to compete with Scotty’s ball striking by just doing that but one or two of those factors won’t take you completely out of the game here so we’re gonna have to have the USGA not lose control of these green complexes that’s what they’ve been in trouble in the past where the course gets away from them but I I love carnage and I love us opens and it’s an interesting tournament because we talk all the time about like look last week at the memorial you get this Fringe you know you have about 70 players one way or another a little bit more than 70 there and while you had a cut it’s top 50 in ties now we get a full-size field then we yeah like we drop down to top 60 in ties that are going to be making it and it might not seem like a lot but those couple different spots do add up at the end of the day you’re going to have to be a stroke better so I think this is a fun contest it’s an interesting betting board and the betting board is all the discussions which we’ll get to are going to stem with Scotty at the top and maybe not so much why you’re going to back them or fade them but really what that does to the rest of the board Nick anything else that stood out to you about Pinehurst that you weigh in your model or just general observations yeah um oh honestly pretty on board with Spencer I think the around the green play is going to be very important I know some people have mixed takes on that three putut avoidance was a big one for me especially looking at like Lightning Fast greens it sounds like these are going to roll at a 13 minimum which is putting on your driveway pretty much so that’s going to be intense uh other than that I’m looking for elite drivers in the golf ball I love that Spencer talked about Apex we can I know Min is going to check that box so that’s probably what pushed him up uh Spencer’s board but a lot of valuable players that I found that hit the ball extremely high that to kind of hold these greens so I’m pretty much with Spencer in General on on everything I did weigh accuracy a little higher than distance but total driving as a whole is going to be very important for me this week because you know just looking at it you can get the weirdest lies in that native land I’d rather have guys that are just living in the Fairway and if they hit it a little short and can kind of run it up with any club I think that does help guys that do struggle around the green a little bit and then just looking at guys with you know relative strong data on Donald Ross designs I did not look at Apex this week but I did weigh driving accuracy more than usual and of course easiest way to keep the greens keep the ball in the greens and control your golf ball is from the short grass in the Fairway rather than in the Sandy native areas so I put a much more premium on driving accuracy than pretty much I ever do on a PJ Tour event ever uh so that’s a big factor for me this week Fairways this week 35 to 45 yards wide but a lot of these Donald Ross Fairways are at an angle angle in the landing area or there’ll be some kind of slope that makes it play shorter so even though it is a relatively wide landing area on paper it’s going to play a little bit smaller so that also adds to why I added driving accuracy and I’ll Echo the sentiment on three put avoidance very important this week and I actually did weigh approach play very significantly a little bit more than usual just because I agree that around the green play is going to be very significant I just didn’t know that I had the data that was going to be valuable here because you look for example last week Rory maroy spoke about this earlier and uh Jack Nicholas might probably isn’t very happy about it uh Rory noted that last week at the memorial if you missed the green a lot of the times you’re just in the thick Ru rough near the green and you got to pop it out and you have one kind of shot that you can play whereas here at Piner number two you’re going to have a plethora of shots you can play like Spencer said you can use a three W to bump it up there my preferred way to do it uh you can putt it you can use a four iron as Tiger Woods was shown checking out yesterday you can use a lofted wedge and try to carry it farther up there and carry it past um a slope or something so there’s a lot of different ways to play the golf course this week and I think that’s pretty cool so I looked at courses that are firm and fast that we’ve had on the PJ tour this season and I looked I weighed some of the metrics there more heavily for example at the Wells Fargo Championship a couple weeks ago wanted to see how guys did on approach there when those greens were incredibly firm and fast because they were brand new after the redesign not everybody played at Colonial in fact the majority of players didn’t uh but I thought that was relevant especially with the short grass around the greens and them also undergoing a new renovation so I wanted to see how golfers did on the firmest and fastest conditions on the PGA tour so I did a combination of firm condition courses and also just difficult scoring which going to have some overlap so I wanted to look at golfers who done well on those type of courses recently otherwise I think we pretty much covered it all so let’s get into our outright betting cards this week Spencer I’ll sling it to you first who you got as we look for our second consecutive US Open winner I guess we should address the elephant in the room before we get into bet so I asked this to both of you guys and it’s not the number that you would bet him at because I’m sure we would all give a very similar answer B based off of this um it’s going to be much higher than what the market would say what do you think a fair number is on Scotty sheffler and then we’ll we’ll go on from there I would think about it at I don’t know four and a half five to one like is he capable of doing what Nelly did like Nelly took a 10 on that par three at on kind of a ridiculous hole in general we’re not going to have that we don’t have the water but like the Carnage that is possibly out here if Scotty Miss hits one shot he could make a double or triple and that could be I don’t want to say that could be it for him because I think he did make a double and a triple grew his lead on Saturday at the memorial but I don’t know the course is just so damn hard and his Donal Russ history I know it’s limited is not good I I’d rather just I don’t know I’m not betting him I guess I’ll put it that way I’m probably not playing him in DFS either which is a bit of a probably a suicide mission but I’m okay letting him beat me I think there’s so many good players in this field I think people just have to have the best weekend of golf to beat him and I think many people are set in a position to do that Roberto what would your take be there pretty similar I be very interested at 5 to one I think that the Sandy native areas are going to play a big factor this week it’s not going to be super easy to tell because a lot of shots you’re not going to see on television but you can get lucky and have nothing in your way just a clean Sandy lie or you can have to pitch out and other times you’re going to have to make a decision on whether you can advance it all the way to the green or not or how you’re going to approach the shot with your angle and controlling your spin I think that that makes it a little bit more challenging for Scotty just because there’s going to be some variant if he gets some bad lies he could get unlucky whereas in a golf course like a Valhalla where you’re just bombing it down there and ging it up out of the rough and you’re not going to have these terrible lies out of the rough that are going to impede you from going at the green or knocking it close to the green or in a a position where you can get up and down I think that’s going to make it really tough this week so I think that’s gonna but however around the green Scotty Sheffer I trust more than anybody else still and I think that’s a huge Edge so I did think about betting Scotty I didn’t do it five to1 is the number that I would take he I have to double check when he’s teeing off but who knows somebody goes out early and posts a number in the morning if he has an afternoon tea time maybe if you want to bet Scotty that’s one way you could go about it but I’m not going to be doing it hopefully this is the week that Scotty Doesn’t uh kill us again because I had L Goldberg at the Masters and we all had colum morawa last week so that’s two times I’ve been Scotti this week this year in the last couple months hopefully it doesn’t happen again this week I legitimately believe we’ve reached the moment in golf where I I don’t I don’t know off the top of my head when Scotty goes off either but there is a potential that somebody could post a number in the morning and Scotty will be shorter than he was without actually hitting a golf ball the amount of exposure that Sports books have on him right now everything is being skewed in in a direction and you’re getting these baked in numbers and it’s it’s not to say I I want to be very careful with how I word this Scotty is the favorite for a reason the discussion that we’re trying to have is what is the number where it becomes fair and what is the number where we would actually back it and for me as outlandish as this might sound because it’s two differing numbers there I think he’s round Fair like I agree with both of your answers in that 4 to one four and a half to one five to one range I think that’s the fair price depending on exactly where you want to push this for me though to actually recommend and push this wager we’ve always been pretty adamant on this show like we need six seven eight in a lot of these spots and the reason why I always give that answer is you have to be very careful with some of these discrepancies between your pricing and your projection and what the number is because as you start moving down the board here and we’re talking about these high-end favorites a slight deviation from where you think it should be really adds up quickly if you’re wrong and where it adds up is you need extra exposure to get those bets down and I’m somebody and I’ve talked about it a mill times on the show I bet and this is not a flat number I’m betting about a unit or less to win seven units or more in order to get a bet down on Scotty Sheffer at these plus 333 numbers 335 whatever the best you can get out there is I got to put two units in some of these spots you know maybe even a little bit more I don’t feel comfortable overexposing my card in that nature so it’s not to say that Scotty’s not going to win he’s a favorite for a reason but you’re also not getting any sort of a discounted price here whe whether this is fair or flat and even we have to be very careful as an industry to not go into this mentality and and I think that sometimes this is what ends up happening where people want to say specifically at a major championship I hit the outright this week look at my card I had the outright winner but long-term profit and value is so much more valuable than trying to T up how many winners you hit in a year I don’t care how many winners that you end up hitting it’s how much is your Roi compared to what everybody else’s is and I say all of that to give an answer that I decided to go very aggressive myself I I did it in a way where I didn’t end up betting Scotty Sheffer but I attacked the top of the board and I and I got two numbers where when this entered early on Monday where bet 365 had Xander at 13 to1 there was a book out there that had Rory at 14 to1 those little minor discrepancies from where the prices are at now allowed me this ability to be a little bit more aggressive on those two stances but I think there’s so much to like about those names alongside Scotty because yes Scotty is over a stroke better in Strokes gain total or Strokes gain T green excuse me than everybody else in the field if you start looking Strokes gain total it starts getting a little bit closer there’s two players that are over two shots per round you have Scotty who’s over 2.6 you have Xander who just gets past the two range there everybody else is going to be less than that but I guess for me when I look specifically at Rory and Xander is the one thing that they have that Scotty could potentially not in some of these spots is the putting Acumen that at any time they could go nuclear with the flat stick on this quick Bermuda and it’s going to take that concept to beat Scotty because if you already have a deficit with the ball striking you’re hoping to in order for this bet and and we don’t even need to use Xander and Rory for this example but in order for Scotty not to win you’re going to need him to be neutral or worse with the putter which there’s is a negative trajectory in my model on similar green complexes so that’s at least a positive if you’re trying to find a reason to fade him and then you’re trying to find the one golfer that can keep the ball striking close enough to him and can go nuclear with the putter to where Scotty loses a stroke a player like Xander or Rory gained five six shots and now you’re in this position where the outright bet has a chance and ends up winning and Scotty comes in fourth place so I thought there was more of a big three in this tournament than the markets actually leading you on to believe there is a discrepancy difference from number one to number two and number three but I also had a discrepancy difference from number two and number three below that if you want to say that oberg’s injury is generating some cause for concern which for me there was so I bet the two of them I took a deim Matsuyama at 55 to one this is a number grab spot he’s gonna be a model darling for anybody who runs their math like he is dominated with his iron play over the years at us opens he’s gained over five shots to the field with that area of his game over the last handful of tournaments that he’s played at the US Open you add that to him being one of the best around the green players in the world thought this was a very good price to consider Hideki and then the best I see in the market right now in minwoo is 80 I got him at 85 to one at bet 365 wrote that in the Best Bets outright article at action on Monday there are a lot of similarities in my math when you look at Windam Clark last year and what we’re getting with minwu like when you’re talking about a long shot wager at a major championship you need someone who’s going to overachieve their Baseline projection when you’re given a very specific venue that’s being used there are red flags that are going to pop up to every single one of these profiles when there’s a reason why they’ve drifted down the board for one reason or another whether it’s right or wrong but you’re always trying to find something within your math that shows that at this particular course this player has a higher upside than you would see during most weeks Clark had that at the US Open last year it’s one of the reasons why I backed him at 100 to one across the board in a lot of the key metrics of what I was looking for he popped in those areas Min woo gives that same exact answer for me this week and and that was the most encouraging sign that I had because we’re looking at a golfer he’s fifth in this field wi combining long iron proximity plus round the green production he’s third for expected total driving he’s fifth for weighted Strokes gain total I think that we Strokes gain total stat is where I am most aggressively trying to back this because that’s where it starts mimicking Clark’s Seventh Place grade in 2023 at Lac if you look at those Baseline stats of where it should be on any course versus where it is this week Clark was 20 spots above his Baseline when he won minwu Lee is 34 spots above his I understand the iron play as a concern where do he find success it’s from 175 plus yards where is finds success he finds it with his total driving on very similar comp courses it’s volatile you guys and I understand that and even though I’ve talked about the matchups that I have here and the ways I’m going to be backing him I just think this is a market error at the end of the day that well I I gave this answer funny enough when I recommended Windam last year I don’t know if he necessarily is going to win or can win but man this is the ideal spot if he’s going to get over the hump and actually get across the finish line here I really like MiMi this week I don’t know that so I haven’t bet him to win outright I have my doubts about him holding up with his irons for a full four rounds but there is a lot of reason to be optimis optimistic about him and I think it starts off with his driving accuracy if you look at the last seven tournaments he’s played he’s gained he’s been above average the field average driving accuracy five of the last seven times last year he played about 20 tournaments only was above the field driving accuracy rate six times so this is a significant Improvement for him he’s a really young player and he’s noted that hey I grew up I wanted to bomb the ball I loved hitting long IRS because you hit him far it’s cool it’s hard to do and he loved showing off with his short game and practicing short game but he didn’t like practicing on the driving range and working on his irons obviously he’s a professional golfer he turned pro at like 18 19 years old he’s 25 he is in his first full season on the PGA tour and he’s playing really consistently last four starts have all been top 26 finishes gained off the te in every single start so far this year he’s got an elite trait if you’re going to win a major championship you’re going to need to get above four strokes gain per round you’re GNA need to have some Elite traits we saw him pitching him from everywhere at the PJ Championship his put get can get red hot he driving like we said Elite driver of the ball second on ball speed on the PGA tour he’s got up side and he just needs to click he doesn’t even need to be in the sheffler stratosphere on approach he’s just got to be good and he can definitely do that the only course where he’s gained a stroke and a half per round on approach so far this season came with the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches and that’s not a course where you’re going to have to hit a ton of long IRS so that gives me hope that he can hit these 150 to 200 yard shots uh that you’re going to be that were demanded at that course they’re going to need to hit the here a lot as well and if he chooses to take Le than driver off off the te he can take that two iron that he absolutely loves and Pummel it down the fairways which is exactly what you have to do at the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches I don’t know that he has the upside I I I would have wanted to bet him at like 125 to one um so 80 to1 I feel like isn’t the number for me but there’s a six to one out there for a top 10 that I think is pretty juicy on mwle yeah the the one difference if we’re looking for actual upside difference between Windam and minwoo is Windam had at least demonstrated the potential to win he won the Wells Fargo leading into the US Open Min wo has some wins that are not on the PGA tour in fields that are very good but it is a challenging ask to say win your first PGA Tour event and do it inside of a major here so I understand that concept of where there would be concerns and there there’s problems with the short iron play like you know we can say that he’s Elite or at least at Le aite in my model from outside of 175 yards but with the distance that he does have and his ability of how he plays golf and just the course in general you’re never going to have a venue where every single shot is outside of 175 there’s a dis disproportionate number that will be but he’s going to have to hit short irons and if the short iron struggle that’s where we can run into some problems because then he’s going to put a lot of stress on that short game of his and you talked Roberto about him being able to chip in from these spots but these are much more challenging layouts to where you’re not going to be chipping in you’re really hoping to put this within five to 10 feet and then make a putt and there are some of the metrics from the short game like I don’t want to talk about how great he is and not talk about the bad there are negative marks with the short game and even some of the putting returns that I have that while he can hit the boom potential with it there’s a lot of bust that comes into play too so it’s a high upside high risk High reward s sort of a play I’m hoping that it ends up mimicking the Windham Clark route but anytime you get a wager like this there is a floor that you have to worry about I’ll also add that mimu tied for fifth at the US Open last year tied for 27th in his only other appearance so he has played well here in in these type of championships and like a Windham Clark Windham Clark who bombs the ball could and can lead the field in any given week off the te or with his Putter and the short game’s also really good I like that M Lee has upside in those three other aspects of his game and the approach play is something something I haven’t seen as consistently as we saw Clark leading in um but I think that mimu Lee is somebody who absolutely could win a big time event very soon I just want to see a little bit more iron play consistency and I think he’s going to be a really interesting golfer to watch over the next couple weeks because I think there will be some opportunities for him uh so Spencer your outright card Min Le Hideki matama Xander shafley and Rory mroy correct all right Spen or Nick any overlap on those and who else is on your card I love it yeah minu Lee is probably someone I’m fading in the DFS Market but did go on the outright side looked at that top 10 at six to1 I think that that’s probably where I’m more likely to go um Rory mcroy as well I took the 12 to1 I found a little bit of value on that number I think that’s still a little bit inflated I think with the way that he’s hitting the ball and kind of just going under the radar right now and the total driving that this course requires and I believe he’s number one Strokes gain on Ross courses uh 12 to one seems like a good number and I could not afford Scotty on my card for the same reason that Spencer discussed uh Tony feno 75 to one somebody had took yeah somebody had somebody had to do it and then I have a spot for 100 to one I’m interested in willsd tus I just am not sold on the ball striking right now so I was in between him and Adam Scott um and then I two guys said never win Tommy Fleetwood 44 to one I found value on that number I think it’s a great course for him I am fine thinking that his first win will come at a major I have him proper at 40 to1 so one of the few guys that I did have value on um so let me hear your thoughts on will Z just because apparently it was a a bad number according to mine I we don’t have to do the fenale thing again if you don’t want to and then uh potentially Adam Scott at 120 I I’ll take this first Roberto um I I didn’t end up making this head-to-head bet I thought it was intriguing if you shopped around and I don’t know where your numbers you guys had Cory Connor but I thought Tony feno over Corey Connor’s in a matchup had some Intrigue like that was more of how I was trying to get exposure to FAL I didn’t end up going that direction I do think that there’s potential value there um I don’t know if you see the same things I like f over Conor’s fow is a better short game player and I think pretty much everything else is similar I also trust can’t believe I’m saying this I trust fow’s putter more than Cory Conor um and I bet Cory Connors last week to win I felt really good after he shot four under on Thursday and was even lower at certain points and he made three straight birdies on the front nine to get to Seven under par I think he took the lead by himself for the share of the lead on Friday morning and then he immediately made bogey bogey bogey on 10 111 12 gave it right back uh so a double turkey there I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before on the PJ tour Cory Conor’s putter is bad it’s really bad it’s compliment to say it’s bad he had a great week awesome week uh the week before at the RBC Canadian open and I don’t know when the next time that’s going to happen so I would take Cory Connor I would take Fina over Cory Connors although both of them have the ball striking upside to win this week if the putter gets together it’s just not likely that Conor gets it together and I think fenale we’ve obviously if you’ve listened to the show we mention him every week somebody has to bet him somebody has to fall on their sword for him um the putter putting stroke does look better than it has been I think the CLA goup has helped him and I’m intrigued he’s one of the people whom just missed my card I also want to say one thing about Fleetwood before we move on so look at the US Open and we can just look at the past five years Windam Clark Fitzpatrick Bryson Woodland like what do all those names have in common they’re all firsttime winners of of a major when they won the US Open we have talked a lot on this show about Tommy Fleetwood and it’s a very similar answer to where the market corrected itself and and Xander’s a better golfer than Tommy Fleetwood is when you compare them together it’s not to say that Fleetwood here here’s the thing I’m trying to word this in a in a direction that that it’s hard coming on a show in saying that Tommy Fleetwood can win a golf tournament when he’s never done it before this is such an ideal venue for him where there is this public perception that comes into play and it’s something that we have talked about quite frequently whether it’s with Xander where the market still moved them a name like Tony fenale which we’ve had this discussion a million times or a golfer like Tommy Fleetwood here where this public perception comes into play that they can’t win a golf tournament and really why that’s happened in all three of those guys that I’ve talked about historically is because they are names that are consistently near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday and don’t end up getting the job done and when you look at Xander Xander wins the PGA Championship and now all of a sudden this complete different narrative has been built around him to where he’s no different of a player in reality you can make the argument that he’s gotten some of these things in his personal life sorted out um his father was a very overbearing presence in his life with his golf game at times and look Xander wins the PJ championship and his father’s in Hawaii when it happens so there’s there’s that that’s com into to play for Xander but from a statistical perspective Xander’s been trending in this direction for years there’s a reason why we have all been coming on shows over and over again and talking about I I understand we’re betting Xander he doesn’t win golf tournaments I get that but there’s value in this number because of the statistical profile Tommy Fleetwood even more so than Tony fenale is so much pushing in that direction as a golfer who is primed and ready to win an event I don’t even think at this point that it’s less likely that it’s a major championship than a regular event he can win anything so if we’re going to get this boost of his price where we have gotten him quite frequently in a lot of these events at numbers that were borderline unedible whether it’s 44 to one like Nick talked about I think there was a 45 even earlier in the week I don’t know if that’s still out there to me this is an overcorrection in the market in the other direction where Fleetwood has real potential win Equity here and because the general public has taken on this mentality that he cannot win you’re actually getting value at the price so Fleetwood was the number one person to miss my card that I did not go with and that’s really because I decided to get Ultra aggressive and go Rory and Xander and when you do that there’s really no other route to go with it and I already had a Hideki ticket from earlier but like hidy Fleetwood those are the two guys for me in that 40 to 50 to one range that are just Prime for a potential big result I think that if you on it back Tommy Fleetwood the ideal places to do it because he’s not super long off the te are places where there’s going to need to be a Miss Fairway penalty and you want firm and fast conditions because he’s a great good putter he’s good at everything and he’s really strong with the short game and you need those to be differentiated it’s not going to be necessarily at a birdie Fest or it’s going to be harder for him there so if I look at this golf course firm in fast conditions check tough around the green conditions check is there going to be a Mis Fairway penalty there’s going to be some variant in the native Sandy area but I think there will be so I think those all point in the direction of Tommy Fleetwood you also hear a lot of people who have been in the golf media game saying this might be the toughest Us open since shinok well guess who shot 63 in the final round at shinok Tommy Fleetwood what’s been the firmest fastest conditions I think most similar Golf Course to this one so far this year relatively wide Fairways no Rough Around The Greens Augusta National where did Tommy Fleetwood finish there T3 best finish of the season so there’s a lot of reasons to really like Tommy Fleetwood this week he like fow just off my card but I’m kind of talking myself into it I don’t really have a lot of room on my card uh but I’m very very intrigued by Tommy Fleetwood and perhaps maybe a live wager or yeah I’m talking myself into it here I really like Tommy I love it I thought I was uh in a bad spot there all right the zalot Taurus one might be more questionable Nick I don’t like zalot Taurus this week okay that’s fair but I I was looking for 100 to one because I have room for it and I I kind of like Adam Scott in the spot I think there’s also something to be noted uh and this is reason to be bullish about M Lee as well is something to be bullish about the Australian golfers this isn’t a secret that they play a lot more on these sany conditions so they’re going to be a lot more comfortable hitting these full shots they might have a little bit different feel than most other golfers so I think there’s a lot of upside there and Adam Scott is just a weird golfer this year who has been decent at everything but just hasn’t put the pieces together so I if you want to back Adam Scott I do think that they’re that the outr market is a great way of doing it so I like that I was enjoying life a lot more trying to fade Jason day than backing him in markets like last week at the memorial we had to sweat out a couple of those bets round one took sep straa my fade this week took sep straa against Jason day and it needed everything to go right down the stretch for that to become a victory sunjay looked dead in the water to him after day one and that turned around also where sunj shot himself up the board but I will say this I don’t want to go over the top with the Jason day answer but I think he’s a legitimate top 30 player in this tournament from a win Equity perspective a as much as I didn’t want to back him last week and I’m not going to get there in the outright Market although I do see that number trending upwards in a very nice Direction where there’s some triple digit totals that seem intriguing but I kind of like him for DFS and I think there’s intriguing routes maybe maybe it’s an tournament answer above anything else where the head-to-head Market might be an enticing route for to go on him this week Jason day has gained more than one stroke on approach per day in a tournament since the beginning of 2023 one time it’s bad he won that tournament he’s like M Le and like uh old wiam Clark in that he can do everything else at an elite level except for hit his irons uh but when he does hit his irons well he’s going to be able to go low enough to win so I always think that there’s upside with Jason day it’s just a question of how he’s going to I don’t I don’t necessarily like backing him in these golf tournaments where you’re gonna have to hit a bunch of long irons but if you want to do it he definitely still has upside to win 100% And I think you can do it in safety markets like for sure there’s the iron play is the only thing within my model that took him outside of the top 50 from any of the seven categories that I ran he was consistent across the board and weighted Strokes gain total scoring on courses how he’s played at major championships expected scoring for Pinehurst that’s what we didn’t see last week at the memorial where he was arguably the him and zalatoris were the two biggest fade and I guess Windam Clark were the three biggest fade candidates that I had and it it took zalot torus until Sunday to actually show his implosion that I was waiting for the entire week day was probably a lot better than I anticipated him being there was there while he got lucky on day one there was a lot of real about his game that he put together before that so I think this is a nice spot for him I’ll get into my outright card quickly and then we’ll let nick uh share some more picks because I know he’s got a bounce soon my outre cards really short this week I’m going back to the well with colum morawa I love his form coming in last week we noted that after the players or after the Valero Texas open he and his coach split up he was with um so he had worked with his childhood Coach Rick cessing house for a long time 18 years then uh he broke up with he got together with Mark Blackburn won immediately at the Zozo Championship last October and was with sesing house until morawa broke up with him after the Masters then had his third consecutive week where he lost Strokes on Approach at the Valero Texas open that was his first time of his career losing shots on approach in three consecutive starts following that he started talking with cessing house his longtime coach once again he played well at the Masters uh top five finish there top five finish at the PGA Championship and now nearly won last week you look at what he’s done recently he was having the wor he’s still technically having the worst year on approach of his career never ranked outside the top three on the PJ tour from 2020 to 23 uh because he graduated in 2019 didn’t have a full year there on the PJ tour but never ranked outside the top three on approach for four straight Seasons this year he’s 51st but before the Masters he was 80th since then he’s gained just over point8 shots on approach per round which if that was what he average for the full season he would rank fourth for the year on approach but more importantly for me he is playing the best golf his career everywhere else if you look at his data golf career summary he’s getting more brokes per round in 2024 putting around the green and off the te so he’s doing everything better than ever except for approach play and I think the approach play is back to its normal level last week was his best week in terms of Strokes gain putting for the entire season it was his best week in terms of approach play for the entire season and it was his best week in terms of off the play he still didn’t win um but gives me reason to be optimistic about this week I love the Putter and Spencer I thought you nailed it earlier when you said that the way to beat Scotty Sheffer is somebody who has putting upside this week they’ve got to be within Striking Distance from ta to Green but the putter needs to be an advantage over Scotty Sheffer I’m writing an article that’s going to drop tomorrow morning here on Action Network about the X factors for the US Open and the biggest X Factor is Scotty sheffer’s putter because if that thing is gaining a stroke per round say good night we don’t even need to talk anymore but putter could be the great equalizer could be a magic wand for somebody out there this week and so I wanted two guys who have upside to beat Scotty sheffler so I went with Colin morawa and Xander shafley those are my two guys we’ve already talked to late about sander sha Le so I’ll sling it to Nick Nick who else you got on your card besides or besides um well we’ve already mentioned your outright card we mentioned your uh play on Richard Manel 4 to one for top 40 who else you got this week I pushed a lther on Richard Manzel top 20 ties pay and full at 11 to1 and then Sam Burns is kind of my like safety blanket this week I think everything that we talked about about this golf course the Apex Elite Driving of the golf ball three put avoidance I do think his iron plays in in some of the best spots that it’s been in his PJ tour career top 20 at plus 240 and that is all she wrote and I’m excited to do one andone real quick before I hop off oh yeah so we both had Colin Mory CWA you hitched yourself to my wagon four of us I think got 2.2 million so Nick still within Striking Distance uh Nick you want to say who you’re playing this week I got to pull this I was hoping for you guys input I think I have to go with a live guy um so I was leaning Brooks kepka I have have John ROM has just withdrawn from the US Open due to a foot infection so don’t take him that makes sense all right so yeah not him he was not in the running I think I already used him anyway and he missed a cut so that was fun um Brooks Bryson and havland are my my three I don’t know if I’m buying in everything Brooks I feel like the market just absolutely loves him but he is playing such good golf and again listen to his interview this week he’s been the most honest guy in golf in my opinion he says his game is in a great spot I believe that but I think Brooks is kind of going under radar great driver of the golf ball seems to be a good course fit in my opinion so I’m leaning Brooks but if I did not have to force a live guy maybe I don’t being in the top three I would go with Victor hofland based on my player pool ability I don’t know if this influences you any but it does seem at least from what I can tell that the market hates Brooks kka so I I don’t know it does it does but I I don’t see why I don’t see why either I I like Brooks this week and I don’t know how you guys have the optimal players still in your player pool is we know what we’re doing clearly apparently because I don’t have col and morawa available couldn’t have used them last week even though I would have liked to and then I I’m looking right now as Nick was talking of my player availability of what I actually have left where did I use all my players I have wendam Clark left I have John ROM who we’ve just talked about I have Keegan Bradley I have sep straa Terell Hatton Jason day Tom Kim like what happened to all my players everybody else is gone talk about just blowing this up early in the season and having nobody left to play with yeah I try not to use the bigname guys in the small purse events so we mentioned this at the tri Schwab challenge betting preview I was going to play morawa and I talked myself out of it because I said why am I using him now he’s just getting into form I’ll wait for the memorial so I actually did something great uh for once but Nick you you you you stole everything I was about to say I have three guys I was considering the same exact three is you I currently have Brooks in there I would want to use havin but I want to save havland for later I’d rather use somebody that I can’t use anywhere else outside of the open so I’m looking toward Brooks I love the long iron play I have my doubts about the putter being strong enough for him to win this week if Sheffer is on however I feel like Bryson is kind of at the top of the market right now and I’d rather save him for the open I feel like he’d be better suited to bombing gouge there than around here I think you’re G need to have more control of your golf ball winning scores to be a lot closer to par just screams Brook Brooks kep to me we already mentioned the US Open at shinok obviously Brooks won there so I like Brooks this week I think he’s gonna be my guy I I also don’t have Brooks kepka available used him at the PGA Championship I would like an investigation into my player pool I feel like I’m getting cheated right now we also for the record we had somebody use Scotty Sheffer last week which means that just about everybody who used Scotty Sheffer won with him except for Spencer and me Spencer used and I used him at the uh at the Genesis imitational which was the last tournament where he lost Strokes putting since then he’s gained Strokes every single time and he wins or finishes second every time he’s not in jail over the weekend so um I I’m leaning I guess for my pick to give a real answerer just cuz I I mean legitimately that’s not me exaggerating I have nobody left I’ll probably take Ben on or minwoo I like those two guys I think that decent contrarian picks ke Bradley’s also very intriguing I think he was my fourth guy this week but I obviously we have The Travelers next week where he’s the defending champion and perhaps maybe a club down course like that could be suited for him um not sure that I want to use him add up big pool or a big purse event yeah um I’ve got a couple plays that I was considering that I wanted to run by you guys I was looking at ludvig oberg top debutant let me pull this one up very quickly um I wanted to take him out right honestly I saw enough last week his ball striking numbers were fantastic and he is a penal driver of the golf ball every every bucket that I cared about he seemed to do very well at I guess just lack of down Ross history was maybe my only concern but he’s got Joe scin on the bag correct so again kind of my masters mentality on why I want to back him and 22 to1 is there I just don’t have the room I’ll get into that Top debutant Market in a moment um I’ll find it because there was only two golfers who were shorter than 10 to1 Nikolai hoard was 9 to1 basically everybody else was a corn fright tour or Europe P Tor player uh or just an Open qualifier without status so I thought that Lou Goldberg could cash this with a top 30 finish pretty easily perhaps so I really like Lou Goldberg there top debutant plus 170 I was also in a similar way of thinking about the kyama bet I was also looking at Ricky Fowler except Fowler is in the morning so he’ll have relatively softer conditions but Fowler over 72 and a half unlike kittama who finished third to dead last last week rookie fower was dead last at the memorial and just hasn’t had it together at all so far this season I can see B basically anything falling off the rails form he’s still looking at a couple different Putters right now I don’t have a lot of reason to be confident in Ricky Fowler and I thought fading him immediately was going to be the only chance because I don’t think he’s going to be around for the weekend any thoughts on that guys speaking of Putters real quick Roberto Richard Manzel team lab and with that I’ll let boys go finish strong all right thanks Nick we’ll catch up with you next week for our preview of The Travelers Spencer any thoughts on Ricky Fowler this week I’m more in the ballpark of where you would be like he’s a negative value in my model he’s essentially a 50/50 made cut candidate maybe I’m not as low on him as you would technically be based off of that answer but it’s there is a lot of the market and we see this quite often which is funny the market holds on to certain players where there’s this Nostalgia Factor nostalgic factor that comes into play where you know even if you look last year with Ricky at the US Open that was his event to lose for a very long time and there’s there’s a lot that is going wrong with his game right now to where from a statistical perspective he’s a negative value and then from any of the recent stuff he’s a massive negative value so um I don’t know how I feel necessarily like I could see him for one day being able to keep it within that number early in the morning but I think at some point he’s going to be a Target to potentially take on in a matchup because the market will be too high on him somewhere yeah he’s got a lot of 45th Place finishes and no cut events so kind of hard to read into that tooo much and it I just don’t see upside anywhere in his game right now that’s what that’s the problem hasn’t really gained a stroke basically in anything for four straight rounds um with any cons more than once so far this season both of them actually came at the Charles Schwab challenge uh which is interesting but that’s a club down course which is very different than this one where also he doesn’t have that edge of knowing the golf course like he does that one as a as a PJ tour veteran his around the green game could be able to maybe save him for a day but yeah outside of that like any of the approach metrics are really subpar I haven’t bet that one yet but I’m on the edge one I have bet is TL Hatton minus 114 over Jordan spe in a tournament matchup statistically TL hatton’s just a better golfer than Jordan spe right now very consistent throughout the bag uh accurate driver off the te Jordan SP his approach play is in the worst shape in recent memory both for the season and also recent form looking at his data golf page he’s lost Strokes on approach in four of his last five starts and has only gained Strokes on approach in three of his last 10 the putter is also relatively ice cold and is coming off of the best week off the te of the whole season even though he missed the cut last week so just Jordan Speed continues to bomb the ball off the te he’s driving it better than he ever has in his career and nothing else is really working for him I think T Haden coming off of an underwhelming PGA Championship performance and not a great performance at Liv Houston either I thought there’s a little bit of value in buying low there but also fading The Nostalgia like you said about Ricky Fowler and Jordan spe being somebody that hey the books know they might be able to get action on spe even though they want to fade him it’s probably 5050 for me Roberto I I don’t have a massive take one way or another with it like if you force me to pick which one I think is going to win I lean towards your haton route just because their profiles are surprisingly similar within my model where their overall rank would just inside the top 45 for each one of them Hatton was a little bit better than that and then each one of them had positive trajectory for upside which would make sense with spe not being able to do anything right right now for making Cuts but actually producing statistically in some of these areas and then uh the safety numbers fall pretty far for each like spe fell a 56 in my model Hatton fell a 46 so uh for me that’s probably a staya away based off of that just because I think you have two volle golfers but um I mean if you’re lower on speed than I am then I mean it makes sense based off of that or higher on Hatton either way on it I think I’m higher than the normal on Hatton and I fed spe relatively consistently on the show and done pretty well with it there’s another matchup well I want to talk about Isaiah selinda he’s an interesting golfer um whom I have two bets that I’m eyeing right now top 40 five to one I’m very intrigued by he’s a golfer who does his best on challenging golf courses he is on the corn fairy tour he won the Panama championship by eight shots on one of the few very tough golf courses on the corn fairy tour there is no shot tracking data so we don’t have the specific Strokes gained metrics putting around the green approach off the te every single week but I know that he plays golf his best golf on tough golf courses open qualified here this week uh had a top 15 finish last week on the corn FY tour or I think he shot 600 par on the final round so he enters with some momentum he plays Tough Golf Course as well I thought the top 40 number was pretty juicy at 5 to one another way of backing him is in a three-way money line so first or so first round against Jim Herman Jim Herman had a PJ tour card last year Isaiah selinda did not Isaiah celinda had one more top 10 finish on the PGA tour than Jim Turman did last year he had one top 10 finish last year on the PJ tour he had two starts uh that came in Spencer’s backyard in Las Vegas where he tied for seventh celinda gain Strokes in all metrics putting around the green approach and off the tea we have not had a start with data like that since then for celinda I think he’s just somebody whom nobody has really much data on and for full reference he was in my grade at Stanford I’ve followed him a little bit more closely than most others just because of that um of that closeness and he won a national championship for Stanford as well and played well in tough golf courses so I followed him I think this is a good spot to fade Jim Herman I think he could shoot an 80 and maybe win this matchup over Jim Herman quite honestly uh Jim Herman did so poorly on the PJ tour last year that he does not have status really anywhere uh well he’s 46 years old so maybe he does and he’s just choosing not to play but he’s played in two corn fa tour events missed the cut in one t-54 in the other played the Puerto Rico open t49 in that one and miss the cut in corales has never finished in the top 45 of us open he’s only had five opportunities even though he’s on the very um downside of his career I don’t know how many guys he’s going to beat this week and I I don’t like betting minus 162s we never do that on the show I never do that but I think maybe if you’re looking for a parlay piece or if you just want to bet that on the three-way money line I think selinda is a much better golfer than Jim Herman right now and I like that one I think when you look at markets like that ties become a lot less prevalent when players are struggling to produce the score so you know if you are correct that Herman goes out and let’s say Herman shoots 12 overpar for the day it’s much less likely that you’re going to end up getting a tie in there somewhere and and of all the players that I have qualifying metrics for so enough rounds inside of my sheet that I could actually feel comfortable pulling from them and usually when I include my data I need a certain amount of rounds to actually include them into the sheet Herman is the worst in the field based off of those golfers where uh negative 1.41 Strokes total he has he is almost bright red across the board which is not good inside of my sheet you want to be bright blue driving accuracy looks good for him the G percentage looks fine some of the proximity totals are okay but the problem is you look at the long iron proximity that’s where it really starts going south like he is as red as can be and I’m I’m bringing it up right now because it must be the worst yeah he’s the worst in the field from 175 to 200 in my maass so those are not positive totals for a golfer that has shown no signs of life now for I mean really like in what four or five years like outside of like your random result here and there yeah he won not too long ago which is why he still had a PJ tour card he won the Windham championship in 2020 so he was is looking at his his data golf profile from 2020 is ridiculous I don’t think he had a single top 25 That season and keep in mind the Windom Championship is the last tournament on the PGA Tours regular season so he probably who knows with the second or third place fin might not even kept his card but you get the win you get a couple years of exemption so that prolonged him and his career on the PJ tour and I’m not quite sure how he qualified I’m assuming open qualifying because nobody’s extending a speci exemption to Jim Herman he’s not Tiger Woods um I I like the fate of Jim Herman I consider this being my best bet but I just don’t know how many people have action access to it so I just didn’t want to give best bet that people can’t bet that makes sense um I got a couple others to run by you I was looking at Mac Meer over Tumi Kaya this was also three-way money line plus 100 um I wanted to back Mac mner I think Kay is an player to any thoughts on those guys my model always likes Meisner um and even specifically for this venue where with it being a major championship and not necessarily expecting him to grade as high as you would he was inside the top 50 for me in pretty much every iteration of what I looked at and um I don’t have a ton of information and data on Kaya a lot of it is just being pulled from a handful of tournaments that I do have like he’s 15th in my model in Strokes gain around the green when you have hard scoring conditions maybe that’s somewhere that you can look as a positive but he’s pretty much outside of the Hun top 100 or he is I shouldn’t say pretty much is he is outside of the top 100 in every other of the categories that I ran so I I would lean towards you being on the right side there just looking at meisner’s recent history on the tough golf courses he’s played pretty well T10 Valero uh miscut at punana which surprising um not not super tough there byr Nelson missed the cut but that was really easy T5 at the Charles schw when it was playing really firm and fast made the cut at the Canadian open had a really rough putting week t-57 I like Meer I like his game up and coming guy I don’t necessarily want to fade him I don’t necessarily want to fade Kaya he’s been playing pretty decent golf recently I know he missed the cut at the PJ Championship but I’ll keep an eye on mner I’ll try to back him against somebody else but that was intriguing just because you get a plus 100 on him um looking around what did you think about Russell Henley plus 105 over Patrick kentley this also is a three-way money line the statistical data around Henley had some concerns in my model but inside the top 15 overall you compare that to Klay I I I’d say it’s a coin flip if we’re being honest like I would ever so slightly lean in the direction of Henley being the correct side so if you want to say getting a plus number gives you some value there but this is coming from somebody Roberto that’s always higher than consensus on Patrick Klay and it doesn’t mean that I want to back him this week he’s not the golfer this season that we’ve seen in years past but some of the long-term data still provided enough of a floor for me where there were 15 golfers that ended up grading inside of the top 50 of every single category that I looked at this week can’t lay ended up being one of those 15 names I believe Henley missed for just one reason I can tell you what it is very quickly he missed because if I can find it uh long iron play plus around the green so uh some of the long iron proximity from Henley pushed him very out very slightly out like he was 54th overall um that’s about as close as you can be to not actually make that list which is why my model seems to think that both of these two guys are close but if you look at the 15 players that landed inside of the top 50 for every single category it’s essentially every one of your favorites and then if you want to look at any of these long shot options down the board which wouldn’t necessarily be the Klay answer here but it’s been on it’s sung JM it’s minwu Lee like that’s it’s the same names that I’ve talked about quite frequently on this show and then outside of that it’s gonna be your four or five favorite I guess Scotty Rory Xander Brooks oberg morawa uh Fleetwood I think that’s kind of one of the reasons why I’m so high on Fleetwood this week and a lot of these other guys that we’ve talked about so for those who aren’t initiated Spencer runs his model from a two-year running perspective where the farther we get into the season the more weight you put on this year’s results I want to fade kle because this is I believe one of the rare opportunities where there is a missed penalty for a Miss Fairway penalty last week we noted that as well kentley missed the cut he lost more Strokes off the te last week than he has in the last well I’m keep going here um all the way through 2020 all the way through 2019 all the way through 2018 through 2017 that was his worst results in the te since The Travelers championship in 2014 in June so that’s nearly 10 years his worst week off the te Patrick kentley has been a great player on the PGA tour because of his combination of driving accuracy and length that is not here this year last year in 2023 he ended the calendar year where in courses where they had where they tracked this he was above the field accuracy off the T in 15 consecutive tournaments so far this season on the PJ tour he has been above the field driving accuracy two times in about a dozen starts that is a significant difference and a key part of what made him great is absolutely gone this year that’s why I wanted to fade him against Russell Henley who is I believe uh top five top 10 in driving accuracy so far this season on the PJ tour so I just thought that was a big leverage Point uh where I came back I think I’m talking myself into it so I’m going to bet Henley there plus 105 threeway money can I just give you one alternative um yes not even trying to convince you necessarily just to throw it out there so I agree with pretty much everything that you’ve said with can’t lay trending in the wrong direction like you can’t make an argument against that this was a golfer a year ago in a lot of these spots maybe not major championships but he was like 10 to one 12 to one to win events and now he’s one of these options that no nobody wants the backs but inside of my model one of the things that I looked at and this is from a much shorter duration of time this usually when I try to pull it I pull it over and it’s could be a little bit further back just because you’re not going to get these examples every single week but I usually try to pull it from some duration of time between 12 to 24 rounds depending on where that answer is you can start pushing this a lot further down the board with it but when you looked at similar comp courses so that would be Strokes gain off the te in hardcoring condition Strokes gain off the te where there is a miscut penalty when you do miss a fairway um Strokes gain off the tea where there’s hazards and and things of that nature and places that you can go where you need to be inside of the Short Grass to find success in all of those areas he graded inside of the top 50 of my model with him pushing as high as number three and strokes gain off the tea at hard scoring and 15th in Strokes gain off the tea with uh these challenging Fair that put him 16th overall for weighted total driving I’d have to go back to see exactly where that’s pulling from for that since as I said not every single tournament that we’re going to be looking at fit those requirements there but at least inside of my model we have seen some sort of an indication from him that when you give him similar courses and similar Concepts off the T he has been better than his Baseline projection if we want to shorten the Baseline to more Rec in those setups so as I said this isn’t necessarily even like trying to talk you in or out of a play I think this is a very 5050 sort of a proposition which the market has priced that way and as I said I probably lean from a safety answer towards the Henley route but this is is truly like flip a coin and for me and figure out which way to go just because of where those driving totals landed I will note that even though Klay has not been above the field average driving he still has been gaining Strokes off the te uh in the majority of those starts obviously not last week so I do think the floor is not as high it’s lower than it’s been for Klay in recent memory for sure I also think he can still win the golf tournament and he’s been falling down the odds board if he gets to 8 to1 I’m gonna bet him but yeah I I I that’s the thing with major championships um and I noted every single show and when when I went as aggressively as I did and I think at 80 to1 there’s still enough room on my card even if I’m Overexposed to add something that’s of that 80 to1 variety there but the upside numbers in my model still present the Intrigue maybe not on the high-end level that we were getting 12 months ago but like golfers like him wendam Clark and I understand this is me running numbers from a longer term than everybody else’s but these are still borderline top 15 top 18 sort of win Equity candidates in my sheet and it does reach a certain point where at 80 to one 100 to one 125 to one Whatever numbers we end up pushing out on these guys there is a realistic route to take because yes this is not the cantlay of old but there’s a reason why this price is now where it is we’re not paying the 14 to1 or the Xander numbers that you have out there him and Xander for felt like three years there every single tournament were priced exactly the same with Klay potentially being the one that was harder to get to Klay would be 12 to one and Xander would be 16 to one and you’d have this push back from the entire industry saying you can’t bet either one of those two at those prices it’s much different game when you can move out to ad and that’s kind of the thing with a major championship is you’re going to get drift in the market so always just be aware for that with Majors that if you can keep a little room on your card and you know that you have somebody that the market is not going to like it’s a pretty good chance that those players are going to move a lot further than you would have ever envisioned when the week opened cannot Echo that enough if somebody’s not entering in form don’t rush to bed on Monday morning that number is going to keep floating out there and kentley’s floated all the way to 60 to1 right now on bet 365 so couldn’t imagine getting that number on him a year ago in a tournament like this and the approach play Upside has been there but the reason why I like Henley against him is a the driving accuracy disparity and B that Henley has been if you look at his metrics recently green just about everywhere really solid play throughout the bag and I don’t think I think Henley still does not have as great of a chance as Klay to win this tournament but I like the floor a lot higher being a lot higher than right now that’s understanding to what Market you’re trying to attack just because a player is a bet or a fade in one area doesn’t mean that it works across the board in every single um uh sector that you’re trying to go into and then from a two-year running we’ll we’ll close it on this but a two-year running perspective in my model you talked about Henley being number one or right around number one this season he’s number one for me in driving accuracy over a two-year span with it with me adding a little bit more emphasis to the season right now so um yeah I mean it’s two players that seem to be going in different directions I do believe Klay has a higher ceiling the floor is where the question comes into play here I also wouldn’t be afraid to guys who have that driving accuracy who might not be as long this week just in general in any Market because the firm in fast conditions mean there’s going to be a lot more roll out on those shots so sure Bryson’s goingon to get more roll out too than normal and those guys will but if someone like Russell Henley is hitting 150 yards and Bryson’s hitting from 120 that is less of an advantage for Bryson than if they’re hitting from 150 and 190 respectively so I’m not afraid of backing the shorter guys which is why I included K morawa in my outright card this week yeah that makes a lot of sense and there’s there’s a there’s a million guys to consider based off of that mentality the the Denny McCarthy of the world who have found success here and I don’t think he’s going to win and and I talked about Christian Baden Hal I know he has no accuracy no distance all the total driving is bad but um I think even a guy like Christian Baden Hal can make a lot of sense here in different markets and that’s one of the reasons why I did back him I got him at minus 120 um against Adam hadwin at bet 365 currently and I don’t think this number is Gonna Last because yes there’s some there’s some sentiment that needs to be said that when I recommended him in my roto baller Discord Channel at minus 1220 we pushed it up into the minus 150 range very quickly um but it’s not just that like there’s a 125 at bet 365 that has been kind of sitting there stagnant for the last 12 hours and I do think this probably gets more into the minus 140 range and hopefully by the time this airs this is still at a 125 number but I thought there was value in that price just because hadwin was one of I don’t want to even say overvalued commodities for me because he’s so low in the market in a lot of ways you’re looking at it but I guess it was a combination where when you took those two players directly I thought Baden Hout was getting too much of an overcorrection in some ways just because of this lack of distance and accuracy that he has and if you remove that from the mix he is a pristine fit in a lot of these other areas with the way that he fits this course and hadwin was very middling across the board there was uh I always like to look as kind of the last the last look inside of my model where I run my numbers I see what a proper price should be that proper price for me was more at minus 140 but I like to see how both of those two players compare against one another in every single category that I attached to to wait to and when you look at these two well there are some close metrics between Baden out and hadwin Baden was able to clip them in all seven of the categories so that usually is enough to add a very small little increase inside of my math when I try to figure out what is going on and if we can do that over the course of a 4day bet makes it all the better there since you don’t have to just worry about one round so um that’s the only other BET right now that I have on my card it’s those four outrights it’s the two matchups and hopefully there will be a handful of in tournament bets to consider Adam hadwin had not gained more than a stroke per round on approach on the PJ tour since last year’s rocket mortgage challenge the first week uh rocket mortgage classic the first week of July last year so almost a full calendar year last week he gained 2.25 Strokes per round on approach so the best approach round for him since July or sorry January of 2019 hasn’t been doing that well on approach pops off last week maybe a little bit of an overcorrection that you can you can take advantage of and I agree but ziden out’s profile looks awesome once you can just get off the team yeah it’s an overcorrection and and you look at hadwin’s profile and I I talked about this a little bit with Klay a second ago hadwin is 27th for accuracy that’s the good number that you’re going to find there but he is outside of the top 100 in all of those and I don’t want to read through all them again all the hard scoring Fairways the rough all those things he’s outside of the top 100 over the recent time frame in each one of those categories so I don’t believe for a player like him a lengthy venue is a positive I think it just accentuates all these problems that he can potentially have because of his lack of distance off the te and as you said Roberto as we keep alluding to over and over again once we take driver out of play and I don’t actually now believe hadwin has an advantage with the driver to begin with it became this wager where I trusted bazen with every other part of his game and if it’s bad versus bad off the te I’ll take Baden out in in the other three critical areas with The Strokes game totals I’m with you I’m gonna tell you on that one so be sure to check that one out at our sponsor bet 365 and reminder that this podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary and that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call- 1800 Gambler or- 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right Spencer wanted to to give wanted to run down a few quick rapid fire questions any live golfers out there that you’re looking to back this week outside of uh potentially well no more ROM or Brooks kka my model was higher than consensus and I gave this answer at the PGA Championship and it didn’t work out exactly correct but I am intrigued by Dustin Johnson a US Open has always historically been the venue where he provides his most upside this outright number opened at 125 to1 I decided not to go down that route maybe I regret it with some of the movement that we’ve seen I know he’s an underdog in most of the matchups that we’re talking about and there’s going to be a lot of volatility to his performances the very easy answer to give would be kep G the Shambo that seems to where everybody’s going probably in the most intrigued by Kea just because I worry a little bit as much as I like the Shambo and um I was trying to figure out a way to back him in the other Majors some of this short iron and and his lack of ability around the Green in these spots could potentially find some problems with the turtle shell Landing zones that he has so I probably if we’re talking about who’s the most likely person to win it’s probably Brooks kka but who’s the name that actually is the most betable at their price it would I would be intrigued to take a shot at Dustin Johnson if you have room on a card me too I mean he could have won three or four us opens throughout his career um he really had troubles closing events and in some pretty crazy fashion uh Chambers Bay in 2015 will forever give me nightmares that’s one of the biggest swings between DFS and all the outright exposure that I had on him that week that is one of if not the biggest swings I have ever encountered in golf betting before um that that’s a story for another day I I ended up there was no television at I was there was no television where I was at the time and I was checking the updates on my phone and you were I was thinking that you were going to get the update that he was the winner of the tournament um because it took so long to actually give me the update and then all of a sudden it popped up Jordan spe as the winner and I ended up falling in like aisle a32 of the Target and was down for the count for a while there yeah clean up on l32 uh but he did go on to win the next year at Oakmont um in his only US Open win but man DJ should have won a lot more I mean the Pebble Beach uh I think it was 2010 yeah I mean 2014 through 2018 he had four top four finishes in five us opens and then in his last four us opens no worse than a t24 and I know last year he tied for 10th and he had like that eight that he took on the second day um he could still do it he’s been in poor form recently but the upside is absolutely there if I had to bet anybody in that 125 to one range Dustin Johnson’s got more upside than anybody else I agree all right Spencer I’ll let you get out of here any uh well where can we find your work this week so you can find me on Twitter at tof sports if you like any of the numbers that you heard during the show you can get that model over at R baller I’m going to have hope Y and this is under the assumption that I can find a matchup every single night I know there’s always a night that misses over from the Action Network platform for the in tournament bets I will hopefully if if you don’t see a bet on Action Network this week it means I don’t have a bet that night so uh the The Hope out of this would be that there should be content every single night that you can find from inter tournament head-to-head bets over at Action Network and then if you want to hear more of a DFS perspective of the show over at R baller I have better golf that I do with Nick uh there’s a lot of content this week and I’ll also be doing tomorrow uh a Best Bet show here at Action Network which will go even a little bit more in depth into some of these plays awesome looking forward to hearing all that and and if you’re just joining us for a major championship week you should know that the inter tournament Market has been very profitable for Spencer this week been tailing basically all those this year those are a great way to capitalize on overcorrections in the market Spencer publishes his model every night or updates his model every night it’s already out there uh with the Baseline scoring for the golfers each day and what they would have done with the Baseline short game and putting and how you can fade them it’s easy to follow it’ll make you smarter you’ll learn about Golf and hopefully put some money in your pocket as well so can’t recommend checking that out any more highly and if you want to find more great work just check out our Action Network app the website uh check us out in podcast form or on YouTube we’ve got you covered not only with golf NBA finals going on WNBA is going on MLB is in the swing of things Shan zella’s got his uh projections up every night that just print money I don’t even watch him will be I just ta and um we just got so much great content going on be sure to check out the Action Network app uh you don’t even need to necessarily read the articles you can just get notifications on when these guys make their bets so be sure to check out the action app and of course we got great content on the site for the US Open basically any Market you want we’ve got an article on it so be sure to check that out or if you just want research or if you’re just doing a pool Steve patrell has got a great article on how you can get different and leverage use leverage to win your golf pool so be sure to check that out uh you can find Spencer on Twitter X tof sports you can find Nick on Twitter xstick piix and you can find me on Twitter SLX Roberto 8213 want to give a big thanks to everybody who makes this podcast possible especially our producers noan neher David Payne and Matt Mitchell and of course I want to give a big thanks to you guys the fans for showing us support uh if you like what you’ve heard be sure to rate US on the on wherever you get your podcasts on YouTube uh give us a like give us a follow and uh yeah thanks for for following us and hopefully we’ll make you some money this week at the US Open and we’ll be back next week for the CH in The Travelers championship in what is another signature event on the PGA tour thanks
5 Comments
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At the time I'm watching, Mansell went to +240 which is the same as Kaymer so I'd rather go with Kaymer and his course history here with his win in 2014. Didn't Lack pick Clark to MC this week ?
Great show! Henley or Fleetwood getting the BIG one this week! If not then Henley next week and Fleetwood at Genesis Scottish Open 😂
I also went with scrambling/Short game from 15-25yrds ATG. Also sand saves (past 3 winners were all in the top 10 or very close in Fairways, Short game, and yep sand saves. Also par 4 scoring all top 10 were +SG Par 4 scoring..also this angle was one of the biggest for my take that Models dont have the data for. Caddies! Those that have had experience on the most difficult and hardest Majors. T. Kims Caddie, Scheffler’s Caddie. Putting their Guy in a position to not make Bogeys, doubles, or worse. Or be able to re-set their Players Headspace after an unlucky or bad shot/hole. So a totality of that.
Fleetwood spots are here and or Genesis Scottish Open. I also Think Henley has the same kind of narrative with getting a win (although Henley has a Win on Tour) but both seem to me having the same win equity for this week.