PGATOUR.COM’s Paul Hodowanic is the guest host as he and Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton discuss Scottie Scheffler as the clear favorite to win the U.S. Open. The top contenders for the tournament include Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Tommy Fleetwood is a sleeper pick for a top-five finish.
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all right welcome back I’m Paul hodowanic from pj.com staff writer I’m not always here the guy that is always here is right next to me that’s Rob Bolton at least next to me on the screen if you’re watching on YouTube Rob how we doing swanie seems to be just taking all these big weeks off he just he’s he wants to give me the Masters he wants to give me the PJ Championship now he’s giving me the US Open maybe have an idea why pj2 are live related but really he’s just he’s not showing up for these big weeks and and we are we’re still here we’re constant don’t worry we let know about it uh secondly obviously you’re built for it so here you are but but thirdly I think you know not that I’m counting but this is the fourth time fourth consecutive time you’ve lost a bet and have to sit in with me so sorry about that but since we’re together we might as well talk about the US Open good to see you bud seriously though yeah no good to see you as well it feels like we’ve had similar conversations every time we jump on here because there’s one constant in men’s golf and that’s Scotty Sheffer who’s number one on your power rankings I’d be surprised urised if I could find someone ranking golfers anywhere that doesn’t have Scotty shuffler number one he’s just automatic at this point unless you just really really trying to go the other way uh to to get some clicks but feels like I’d take any odds for Scotty shuffler to win because I just it’s hard this moment as we speak Tuesday to see another outcome I just keep nodding I mean you’re right you’re right yep we know yep he’s actually as we’re speaking on this recording on a special Tuesday plus 3:33 okay so he’s given back to a little bit Yeah crazy there is though the market bmgm has the the not uh everybody but Scotty shuffler to win and Xander schofl leads that at plus 900 on the full board he’s plus 1100 so uh there’s there’s about a 200 Gap there for most of the golfers up and down the board if not all of them right now so it’s crazy it’s just crazy it’s he plays well everywhere it you know we’re we’re in the same business it’s it almost feels like this is a writing contest for how can you write about him without sounding like you’re hyperbolic about his talent like every time I think about a lead this week was when does he start giving Strokes I’m sure I’m behind the rest but I told you this last time I always start at the bottom and go up like he still has to go execute yep he’s doing that too so it’s just the Scotty shuffler show man we’re just blessed to be able to watch it blessed to be alive when he’s he’s out there performing and we’ll just see he goes out there and competes this week even when he has triple bogeys he figures out a way to win it’s just it’s just phenomenal so we’ll enjoy it as long as this lasts we’ll continue to enjoy it what else can you say yeah and I mean we’ve said all this before but it’s on every type of golf course it’s Bay Hill it’s Augusta it’s TPC Saw Grass it’s Memorial and so it’s tiger again is what it is for it for the current for the younger generation that didn’t get to see tiger in his prime you’re getting to see that minus the intensity minus the histrionics when he sinks a putt on the 14th hole not the 18th hole obviously he still shows some of that it’s that minus a lot of that extra uh and so that’s obviously gives you some sense of how impactful tiger was at at his height Scotty is doing that in the executional standpoint and from a betting perspective is that number just so low that it’s just hard to even consider well so I write uh points and payouts uh every Sunday uh after tournament concludes and this last week after he won it was the fourth so he’s won five of his last eight his last three victories he was plus 400 he’s made 13 starts if you had bet him to win each of those 13 and bet exactly $100 for all 13 that’s a $1,300 uh lay he has in the five victories his aggregate winnings is 2400 again just straight odds so you would be up 1,00 he’s outpacing the market which already seems incredibly low I don’t know how you talk anybody out of it it’s just nice that he’s still on the board for us and so he’s got to be on your card it’s the US Open you’re going to want to diversify but he has to be part of it again it’s a golf course that even if Scotty wasn’t playing really well he would stand out as a fit for in terms of what it requires in terms of just amazing distance control and then if you do get out a position a short game that can get you out of it that’s exactly what we’d expect from Scotty Sheffer and it feels like it’s going to be it from everything we’ve heard Windam Clark on Monday called The Greens borderline everyone’s saying it’s really really hard that again sets up for Scotti sheffler and I want to kind of transition to that the course aspect of this we obviously saw it 10 years ago kind of how it looks now with the new renovation that uh came in so we have one year albeit 10 years ago before distance was maybe as Paramount as it is now and I’m looking at it and I’m trying to decide where that winning score is going to be I’m not sure if there’s a betting odds for that yet that we’ve seen but where is your sense about where we might net out and how difficult this might be well we saw Martin kimr run away with it uh 10 years ago uh and that was on Bentgrass greens now it’s the Ultra Dwarf Bermuda grass first time ever Bermuda has hosted the US Open I couldn’t believe that when I read that that’s remarkable so that’s going to bring in some of the guys who are more familiar with playing on night grass and that was baked into uh some of the work this week and some of the analysis and uh and I like that for some of the guys that maybe aren’t playing very well when they get back it’s a little bit like the Florida swing the guys go to Florida and suddenly they find their game they’re more familiar on that grass so that’s a component that plays way up as far as the overall score um these screens are small they’re average in size but they play small because of the runoffs uh you just need one of these top tier talents to to to go low it’s a par 70 yeah I think seven or eight under would be aggressive um it would might require 66 in there type of thing and then hang on and maybe get a 69 or something like that and you get the five I mean it’s still going to I still think if it if the over under is let’s say six and a half that’s fair six and a half underpar I I think it’s around that number uh I think I think it was Tiger that said it may be the low score that we get on the first round ends up being around the winning score on the final day it’s going to be one of those tests that just gets harder so we may get some low scores day one but that as the golf course progresses as the greens get less and less receptive and more bouncy and firmer which seems hard to believe based on the reports we’re getting but that sounds like the way it may Trend when you go through your power rankings it’s for this type of test it’s all the the horses you’ve got Colin 2 Xander 3 Rory 4 Bryson five Matt Fitzpatrick 6 kind of take me through how you formulated that top kind of end of your power rankings some of the maybe minutia of picking a Colin over a Xander but also just what you looked for in that top tier group yeah first of all you bring up a great point about Memorial last week in mirfield Village I wrote about this in the power rankings I Know Jack Nicholas wants to to send the tournament back to its customary role the week of Memorial Day and for lots of reasons and he’s Jack Nicholas uh however I am really curious how the golfers who played last week and played well and play this week and play well come out of this week with the rhetoric in terms of the these two tournaments in consecutive weeks it’s not going to be the model moving forward but they may be talking about how well mirfield Village can set up for a US Open that’s difficult like this week’s will be you know there are power Brokers involved that uh will supersede the notion of doing this again and and fair uh but I’m genuinely curious what the takeaway will be because the guys who played well this week on a difficult course should play well this week on a difficult course and that’s baked into the power rankings shuffler at the top Colin moraca was number three last week he’s number two this week finished second the only guy to really put heat on Scotty at mirfield Village solo second Xander at number three first week first start as a major champion last week he’s now first major start as a major Champion have him lotted at third he always plays really well I mean full stop but especially in the difficult courses especially this time of his career now he just the monkeys off his back so he can free wield if he wants and be smart and he can now win consecutive Majors just like that so that’s what he’s chasing got Rory mooy at four again really strong season that might be a little high but he’s the lowest of the top four is the way I’m looking at that if you look at those four guys specifically that subset of the field Bryson d Shambo at five uh couple top fives uh top pardon me T6 at the Masters and then the runner up at the PGA Championship and then Fitzpatrick former you know he’s the last US Open Champion only two years ago but last US Open Champion to make this tournament his PJ tour uh breakthrough Victory obviously won abroad I I understand that but nevertheless went into the history books two different ways just two years ago and then coming off a really strong finish last week at mirfield Village again where he played well and he can just roll right into this week There’s no break this time they went into last week with a fortnight perspective we talked about it last week I wrot about it those same guys top of the power rankings expecting them to play well would shock me if they don’t it would probably be one or two holes that’s all it would take obviously in this golf course and it’s out there waiting for him another guy top five at Memorial but a little bit further down in the power rankings that’s lud vgo Berg what had him at 11 still a good spot but we know based just on Talent he could be higher than that I love your fight for the guy he he definitely has earned it and no the PJ was I I don’t mind failure in the majors the fact that he has F failed only once in the majors granted he’s made only three starts he’s starting he’s playing all of them for the first time this year I’m just respecting the fact that he is so new at this and not to overlook the talent above him in the power rankings those guys belong in those spaces as well sure you can make an argument and yes sure he’s in top 15 in a you know field of 156 not all of them are going to be contenders of course you would rule out many of them dozens of them if you’d like and O is going to be right there but he has all the all the talent he’s just he’s just so smooth already so quickly so fast in his career so so soon in his career I love the shiny new toys just as much as the next guy um but I tend to play conservatively especially when it comes to the fact that a lot of these guys have more experience so until he gains some more experience you know K Mora was a little bit like that when he came came on 5 years ago and and he came on really strong and he deserved to climb a little bit higher into the power rankings let’s give ludig a little more time before he cracks the top 10 on a regular basis all right one of your sleeper picks Tommy Fleetwood for a top five what do you like about Tommy coming into this week I mean he top fives this kind of the story we don’t have him as a sleeper for winning but we have him as a top five uh sleeper uh I think it makes sense but explain to me you have him there yeah what I like about Tommy Fleetwood in the top five the answer is yes uh what’s not to like seven top fives in the majors in his career still chasing that first pjur Victory when I mentioned Matt fitchpatrick earlier I was thinking of Tommy Fleetwood he’s in that same Lane yet to break through on the PJ tour specifically always playing in the deepest Fields this is one of them uh coming off couple he’s had a victory earlier this year uh Podium finish at the Masters um there’s no letup in his game uh has incredible short game he’s one of the four in the in the sleepers specifically uh with a very high ranking in bogey avoidance I encourage viewers to go check that out four of the top fives this year uh Paul have have come through for me and Sh Kim almost did if I wasn’t my outright I did acknowledge a top five maybe may have been a better play of the week he had a top five so it could have been five but Fleetwood I may be the most confident about of all of the top fives I’ve had this year just because of all of the trajectory he’s uh he’s bringing from all the angles that that matter at Pinehurst this week I want to end this way when going into Valhalla I think we talked about how it felt like only a certain number of guys could win maybe five six just based on how the course was set up long long rough soft that was going to bring you to a Scotty Sheffer a Xander a Rory a Collins some of these guys that we saw up there how are you trending this week in terms of how open the field is maybe if we’re you know sheffler aside if you can do that but just like if you’re bringing it open does this feel like a tournament where only five six guys can win or because of how the golf course is set up how tough it is you could see this extending a little further out yeah I think you’re looking like about 20 and I think the betting board reflects it really nicely I I looked at the middle of the board for Shane Lowry as my outright sleeper at plus 8,000 I couldn’t find anybody longer than like 5,500 that I really loved but I wanted to get out there Windam Clark was plus 8,000 last year uh and he won the US Open um but when par is a good score that brings the field closer together and the talent is so strong in the field you expect a lot of the guys to hang around longer and so we should see a just a crazy leaderboard come Sunday but the way the course is set up whoever has the lead maybe like after the 15th hole probably will win as long as he Pars in obviously that’s the that’s the qualifier there so it’s going to take that steadfast and looking at experience I I don’t see a first-time winner even though I’m touting you know Fleetwood is for a top five he’s not he’s not an outright you know Lowry is the outright in that not looking for a first- timer because it’s going to require that kind of grit that guys haven’t had before in this space looking at a guy probably with a a previous major uh maybe with a with a victory already this year somewhere in the world because he’s tasted that Victory Lowry again qualifies for that so that’s that’s the angle I’m looking at but he’s going to have to be able to keep the ball front of them Fairways are wide and and welcoming but they’re going to have to be positioned well off the tea as well so guys who come in with confidence uh striking the ball with full shots that’s the crowd and again we’re talking about a lot of those same guys so while you had opened the show by saying that distance may have not have mattered as much in 2014 the guys that are hitting it long and beside each other all the time in the Fairway that’s a much greater list um but they don’t have to hit it that long even though the fairways are open this week it’s going to it’s going to be really about course management and experience and patience and all the sorts of things that they’ve been through before that’s the subset I just I mean I just can’t wait for this major just I this is probably the most excited I’ve been about one this year just cuz for the golf course uh we don’t see Golf Course Paul we don’t see golf courses like this a ton on the PJ tour with the sandy soil the waste areas I’m excited to see the trouble that the guys get in and how they get themselves out tiger seems to think we’re going to watch some guys putt off the green I’m intrigued about that uh we could we could see guys embarrassing themselves which maybe not so fun for them it’s fun to watch for us and to analyze it’s going to be a stressful physical test it’s going to be super hot it’s going to be super mentally draining like the guy who wins is going to have survived a lot of stuff so I’m excited to see who could be put up to the test my sleeper by the way in case anyone wants to know that’s John swante I think he may be sleeping uh all week so that’s my sleeper uh for the week uh but John will come back next week uh and probably and rightfully hopefully gives me a little uh needling back so Rob thank you for letting me I guess take my normal spot now in the majors I seem to be doing this uh every every time we get to one of these big weeks thank you for your Insight and all your hard work I’m excited to see what you produce this week as well thanks Rob hey buddy thanks again I’ll catch you next time whenever that is see you
