Action Network’s Golf Betting expert Spencer Aguiar and Special Guest Pat Mayo join Brendan Glasheen to discuss their best bets for the PGA Tour’s 2nd Major of the year, The 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 on The Action Network Podcast presented by BetMGM. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
00:00 – Introduction
00:44 – Biggest Challenger to Scottie Scheffler
10:45 – Outright Picks
13:07 – Best Course Fits
17:23 – Head-to-Head Picks
24:57 – Longshots Picks
35:03 – Final Best Bets
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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #BlueWireVideo #AuthorBrendanGlasheen
welcome into the Action Network podcast we are presented by bet MGM we are here for the 2024 US Open Your US Open betting preview we’re joined today by Spencer agar who contributes at the Action Network and special guest Pat Mayo of the pat Mayo experience brenon glashen in the host chair we’ll make our way through the card favorites some long shots as well as some head-to heads and a course breakdown which Spencer did a great job sort of diving into this over on action network.com if you’re watching on the YouTube page please subscribe there as well we appreciate uh your visibility and also like And subscribe to the Action Network podcast jent we’ll start out with just kind of a an overarching look at this particular Field Spencer I’ll turn to you first uh third men’s championship of the year for the US Open some top-of-the-line notes that come to mind for you Scotty sheffler in his price I mean I think that has been the talking point from every single show that you’re listening to that this is the most similar to The Tiger Woods prices that we were getting in the prime of his career and you know he here’s the thing and here’s the discussion that I think at least needs to be had here and I’ll let Pat talk about this himself I I would assume he has a similar Viewpoint that I do I mean I don’t want to speak for him here but to me people have been more concerned at this tournament with saying that they’re going to hit the winner than actually making a long-term profit that does not mean sheffler is not going to win this event but there are real ramifications to your bank roll when you have to get down double triple you know quadruple the exposure as you normally would to try to back a number that has to me shifted into a territory of no return it’s one thing for people when they give out recommendations and they don’t track the outcome because it becomes this out of sight out of- mind situation it’s another when you have real money and real tracking of the bet if it doesn’t hit so I I’m trying to figure out a way of how do we take Scotty on in the most profitable sense of the word with that and the answer will always be other markets that are not outright bets but people like to hear outright bets so we’ll talk about some of those here well bet MGM has the without sheffler Market which is actually pretty fairly priced I did not expect it to be so fairly priced so if you’re really worried about Scotty sheffler you can just bet on Scotty chefer that that is something you’re allowed to do or you can go to that market however in the sheffler market itself so I guess the best way to think about it is what are your goals of what you want to win in a golf tournament now I if I’m betting outright winners I like to win somewhere between six and nine times whatever money I put in so if I put in 300 bucks I need to be winning around 2100 2500 coming back for myself so how do I do that with Scotty Sheffer well he’s what plus 333 he’s basically 3 to one so my entire bank roll this week in order for me to achieve that would have to go on Scotty Sheffer now I’m just not willing to do that now I can play with the without Scotty Market if I’m truly concerned about that the one thing that I found Spence is the numbers that we’re getting on some of these guys with Scotty in the field are really good compared to what we used to get them at they’re not quite as good as they should be but when you can start getting Brooks at 24 to1 or 20 to1 depending on what the market Bears some of these guys down the board are still very live win this tournament and don’t forget for as much as Scotty Sheffer is the new Tiger Woods Tiger Woods has 14 major Scotty sheffler has two and it’s not like this isn’t the only time that Scotty Sheffer has been playing Amazing golf going into a major that he didn’t win so let’s pump the brakes a little bit on Scotty sheffler until he gets to his six seven eight then I’ll say you know what I was wrong but I don’t think he should be this price and I think it’s helping out everyone else Xander chafl 11 to1 Rory maroy 12 to1 Spencer you discussed in your your up previewing the US open at Pinehurst Resort and country club that those three emerg to you so not just Sher but what do you make of the rest of the top of the board I seem to have this differing opinion than most people in the space when you look at this like yes Scotty Shefler is in his own League you can pull it from any statistical data that you want to find I’ll get into a little bit when we talk about the outright Market but like just in a nutshell of the situation there he’s gained 2.63 Strokes total in my two-year running Baseline that I have there’s only one other golfer that’s over two shots now I think here’s the interesting thing about if you’re trying to take him on his ball striking is so immaculate and Elite you’re not going to beat him in a ball striking battle you need to find the golfer who can be the closest with their ball striking and that you hope that their putter gives them the ability to go nuclear with that portion of their game where Scotty ends up faltering and there are negative trajectory marks inside of my model for him on Fast ber muta green complexes and you know the putters turned around this season and it’s become closer to what we had gotten from him when he went on the run previously and that’s why you’re getting all these victories when you’re over a stroke better Strokes gting TAA green than the next best player in the tournament and the putter is oh now it’s actually good or decent you’re gonna win a lot of events but I’m trying to find the players that had the biggest ceiling outputs inside of my model in different areas and then where was I able to find that Spike potential the putter being one of those ways that I’m going to go in that direction I also think you can figure out a way to get an advantage if you are really good with your long iron proximity from 175 plus yards you’re going to get a disproportionate amount of Strokes that are coming in that area into these really fiery fast screens so high Apex ball flights are going to be able to hold the surface a lot better than a lot of these low ball flight players and that’s one of the things in my model where give me that sort of a blueprint that recipe of a golfer and those are the names that I ended up circling trying to oppose Scotty sheffler on the outright board yeah Pat I I heard you mention you’re looking a little further down the board but at the top when you go right after Scotty to a Xander chafl or a Rory mroy are those golfers that you’re willing to possibly back no not at that price like that’s the price where I would feel comfortable betting Scotty Sheffer not these two jabronies okay want to further explain I mean yes Xander just won Xander you really think Xander is gonna win two majors in a row there a guy that took like three years to win a tournament he’s gonna win two majors in a row no thanks it’s been a decade for Rory at a course that completely works against what his major skill sets are he can’t just sit there and bombit 380 y maybe he can he HS the ball straight every single time but I just don’t see it with those two like they are so much closer to the pack of five players behind them than they are to Scotty sheffler at the moment so I would just take the guys with the better odds I Pat I will say one thing to that I do think there’s a realistic chance that the floodgates could open for Xander oh come on you look at the statistical data I mean that’s great I mean he should have won what 17 times over the last three years and he won once look at what he’s done in his personal life who has been the biggest problem in my opinion opion to holding him back it was his father his father was a very overbearing presence in a lot of these situations where was his father when he won the PGA Championship his father’s in Hawaii nowhere near the facility so if the statistical outputs are putting him closer to Scotty sheffler in this field I made this argument on a show yesterday give him a victory any Victory this year and I understand your argument he did not have victories outside of the PJ Championship but give him any Victory he’s eight or nine to one to win this tournament and if you make it one of the headline of The Players Championship I really think it’s seven or8 to one this disparity difference between Sheffer and Schley in my eyes is not H as Stark of a difference here as the general public is leading people to believe I’ve always been under this mentality that I wrote this in an action Network article the night that the night before Xander one but you are labeled as a golfer who C who cannot get the job done until you actually get across the finish line who are the players historically who have been the closest in these spots it’s the fleetwoods it’s the fenals it’s the xanders these are the names that aren’t getting across the finish line and it becomes a stink that gets put on them in the eyes of the general public and like I’m always going to run things from a data- driven perspective and if there’s a golfer that’s going to be pumping out the statistics the way that I want them to be in it Xander fitting the entire bill of what I want there I I understand your sentiment that like you’re buying into a price now that might seem gross on the surface but I don’t know Pat I I really like Xander this week who was the last guy to win back toback Majors I mean I would assume it’s tiger spe in 2015 Chambers Bay and uh the master so it’s been a decade I just don’t see Xander being that guy to it backtack Majors like there’s a especially at this price now you want to make him 25 to one sure I’ll line up and bet Xander with you I do think he has a good chance of winning does he have a 10% chance of winning this field that is I guess he’s 11 to one so does he have a nine % chance of winning in this field I don’t think so because I think there’s a lot of Randomness that goes on at this course as well can he navigate that sure he’s been great at us opens to come inside the top 10 and not necessarily win maybe you’re right in the floodgates have open he becomes that guy but I would find it kind of crazy that he finally gets over the hump and then all of a sudden he’s just a prolific major winner could he get another yes could it be the at TR sure but this soon seems like a stretch to me the randomness of the course is the exact reason why the shler price is a problem too correct and that’s why I like these 20 plus 40 plus 60 plus similarly talented because I did the same thing that you did when I looked at some of my bets this week here what is the one skill that these guys have that they could actually beat everyone else in the field at and would that be enough to actually win this week and I do think you can find a lot of guys down the board who do that okay let’s let’s get into it then so you’re not into you mentioned your how you would use your bankroll if it was to back Scotty sheffler Pat Mayo guys in your eyes that do have the appropriate price points to take a stab at Brooks number one it’s a it’s a US Open there’s a number two in front of the Brooks kepka number he’s coming off Hey listen he just shot a seven under Sunday on Liv tour just because you didn’t know that happened doesn’t mean it actually didn’t happen it happened and this is the best US Open player of Our Generation better than Tiger Woods even on a on an upside level in these events this one’s a little bit different in terms of the layup but Brooks was fourth here a decade ago before he was Brooks kepka he’s going to drive it straight he’s goingon to hit his irons High and the biggest thing at this tournament is but Brooks the the distance control for Scotty is one thing it’s very tiger esque where he can just hit the ball whole High every single time what you see Brooks do at these difficult both us opens and PGA championships is monitor his ball flight and never get sucked into hitting it at the pin there’s so many guys in this field who need to have it seven feet from the cup in order to make a birdie Brooks does it when you w go back and watch Brooks majors at difficult courses he just hits the ball to 20 feet he just makes three of those putts around because he’s an excellent putter he can get the ball up and down no problem he has the most complete game for a US Open and if there’s anyone at the top of this board who if in contention will keep it together be stoic and not make that stupid mistake I think it’s Brooks Pat can I ask you a question of the live golfers you what no of the live golfers are is there anybody else that you like outside of Brooks I like cam I bet on cam I to me I think there is a difference between Brooks and everybody else Brooks was the most elite name in this field for all the reasons that you’ve talked about um we’ll leave it at that I think Brooks is a very intriguing play as that price continues to drift in the market I think Bryson’s interesting because I think Bryson’s engag I just don’t know he delted as seven irons I don’t know why he’s doing that when you really want to hit the ball higher and he’ll still hit the ball higher than most people even with a Del lofted Club because he’ll be hitting a seven iron 220 yards while other guys are hitting five iron so naturally it’s G to be fine for Bryson I just worry that he’s gonna come in with a strategy and he’s going to stick to it and that’s worked out really well for him sometimes and it’s worked out really poorly for him sometimes I could see this one being one that doesn’t work out so great Spencer when you use the uh your course breakdown how does that factor into some of the guys towards the top of the board because you you were you’re very particular about how that might fit your model yeah if we look at some of the statistical data here it’s this a Donald Ross course Ross is always known for these really challenging and unique around the green complexes a lot of times that veers away from the standard expectations of what we see on the PGA tour weekly I that’s going to be no different here you have these turtle shell greens that have the propensity to repel shots entirely off the surface that can be up to 30 yards away from the hole it can moving the traps these tight lies all of that adds a headache to the construction all of that would be challenging on its own to try introverse because of the complexity of the Trap but or the track here but what we end up getting and this is how I built my model into this very heavy weight over and over again even if I did decrease it ever so slightly in Strokes gain approaches I keep talking about these excessive number of shots from 175 plus yards into these fiery fast screens I wanted High Apex ball flights and and I wanted golfers and Pat talked about this a little bit when he was talking about the volatility and the unpredictability of the course you have a really fast and firm condition of when you do have a driver in hand and it’s going to move shots into Sandy areas into what they call wire grass and gorse bushes I do think that means accuracy off the te will be a little bit more important than distance I would say that this is a very standard US Open test yearly we probably didn’t get quite as much of that last year at LACC but when I’m looking at the outright board and trying to figure out a way to build my card and you know I did go to the very top with Xander we’ve had that discussion I thought a really nice middling point if you’re trying to find one of those middle tiered players was Hideki Matsuyama when he opened at 55 to1 that’s a statistical darling if you’re going to run a model and then if I’m trying to find a long shot and this is what I did I think the last time we did a show together Brendan was at the US Open last year where I had Windam Clark at 100 to one you’re trying to find a specific skill set of why does this player overachieve their Baseline projection on the given track that’s being used and that is how you end up Landing in these positions where you can get players that overachieve based off of their Baseline projection Windam did that last year top 10 of my model for weighted Strokes game total expected scoring firm conditions projected scoring on Fast tracks like all of those things hit for him I think I gave this exact answer and Matt Mitchell even commented on it after the fact on it but I gave something along the lines of like you’re asking for him to do something that he’s never done in his career to get the Victory and Windam was able to do that there is a golfer for me in this field and I know he doesn’t necessarily have that pedigree because at least Windam had that victory at the Wells Fargo Championship but I really like Min wo Le in the same vein of why I liked Windam Clark last year there were a few extremely robust returns for me here at Pinehurst that resembled what I saw from Clark he graded fifth in this field wi combining long iron proximity plus around the green production those are the two stats I keep going back to third for expected total driving and then fifth for weighted Strokes gain total that last stat of Landing fifth for weighted Strokes gain total is the fun one that that starts to mimic Clark’s Seventh Place grade in 2023 I keep talking about overachieving your Baseline Clark was 20 spots above his Baseline last year minwu Lee is 34 spots above his here specifically at Pinehurst so you know there are options this is not and this is where Pat’s correct this is not just the forone conclusion Scotty sheffler is going to guarantee to win this event it’s still hard to win a golf tournament it’s hard to win a 156 man field and it’s hard to win a course that’s going to have volatility where one or two bad shots can change the complete complexion of this event so there are opportunities down this board to take a few shots okay yeah weather looks picture perfect for the weekend too uh at Pinehurst so that’s uh something to think about too an extremely dried out course could be the case this weekend down in North Carolina let’s go to head-to-head uh markets and then we’ll work our way to Long Shots Pat Mayo anything uh emerg to you from a head-to-head standpoint yeah I’m taking the guy that is finished inside the top four in each of his past three starts has finished inside the top five of each of the majors so far the season a guy I bet on to win this tournament and he’s against Zander shafley and he’s an underdog Xander despite his great run that he’s currently on including a major championship has lost to Colin morawa in four of his past six starts so you can find Colin morawa over Xander shafley at plus 110 right now across the market so that’s where I would be going well this this the Xander slamming continues I mean he just doesn’t beat morawa it’s a good percentage four out of six two out of three 66 67% winner and you’re getting Juiced up odds 100 pay is 110 bucks on that not even just your money back in terms of the bet that you wager you have to and they ju so badly to the other side because people are in love with Xander that it’s minus 140 and these guys are so close right now because all of a sudden and I mean what Spencer said is true because sometimes it depends on what you look at with people do data modeling there’s different ways to do that so Spencer is using a two-year running average and that should probably actually make morawa a little bit better than if you would use let’s say the past six months or so because his iron play had been so bad however over the past three starts from morawa the former best iron player in the world has not quite rediscovered everything that he’s done with his irons in terms of gaining eight Strokes a tournament nine Strokes a tournament however he’s back to gaining four five per tournament which is fine because he learned how to Chip and Putt he doesn’t actively Chip and Putt himself out of tournaments anymore and that is exactly what you need to win a US Open he has been my favorite guy this week I think his odds are 15 to one right now but almost any site that you use will give you a profit boost this week and there is no better place to use a profit boost than on a golf winner especially someone somewhat near the top so earlier in the week you were able to take him I was able to take him up from 17 to1 to 26 to1 you can probably get him at least up to 24 4 23 to1 with Boo at any place where you want to play so I I would be going back to morawa outright and if I’m going to bet him outright I’m gonna bet him over Xandra shafley Spencer head-to-head Market that you’re uh interested in there were two for me that I liked um Christian Baden Hal minus 120 over Adam hadwin that’s a wager that’s the epitome of the conversation I have frequently on links and locks about how Market overcorrections are one of the most significant laks you can still take advantage of weekly when trying to find Value on the board that’s going to include and we’ll talk about this throughout the week as I write articles for action but the in tournament Wagers where options move way too heavily away from their pre-event numbers it’s one of the reasons my matchups H have hit at over 60% over the last 500 plays on the Thursday Friday and Saturday plays as I said you can be sure to check those out Brendan I’m not above a Shameless plug there but uh many of those sentiments also become highly relevant in these full tournament matchups since you can get these price shifts away from the long-term projections that lead to the same Outlook disparity that sometimes generates these skewed prices between golfers my model graded hadwin 108th in anticipated Strokes gain off the te compared to the field he also fell to 67 from his 45th Place Baseline when looking into around the green projections a lot of this boost of what we’re getting here is his third place result at the memorial um I thought that was a very enticing price that has been on the Move in the market Market you’re going to have to shop around there I wrote this over at Roto baller on Monday on one of the sites we moved the number 30 points and uh that 120 is still available if you shop around but the other one is minwu Lee minus 114 over sep straa straa was a golfer that I backed at the memorial last week because of this recent t top 10 upside but that disproportionate number of shots from outside of 175 plus yards that I keep talking about hurt his profile most than more than most names in this field my model ranked straa 89th win combining long iron proximity plus around the green 75th for weighted bogy avoidance 88th for weighted scoring and then 74th for expected Strokes gain total at Pinehurst number two um I if we want to have a DFS discussion he’s going to be the chalk of all chalk there I tend to think that the price tag is kind of fair which is going to be I am much lower than consensus for that reason and I’m trying to find different ways to fade them I wrote a round one article that you can find on action and this is going back to the well with the Windom Clark thing that everybody wants no part of Windam this week I took Windom in round one over straa like I think there’s a lot of different ways that we can consider opposing him and that’s one of those situations where I don’t think he’s the market over correction answer that hadwin would be because straa does have a profile that’s been trending positively in my model but this is one of those situations where where because he has the safety built into the profile of what he’s done recently a lot of this is being being overblown on the odds board here at a course that I don’t necessarily think fits his game perfectly funny you mentioned Seb straa I wouldn’t play that minwoo against him only because Min wo doesn’t rate out very well for me either uh it’s starting to get a little bit better but his horrendous start to the season and where he was so smoking mirrors towards the earlier part of last year when he was having so much success B primarily off his chipping and his putting and then the irons just never really came around they do seem like they’re coming around a little bit right now he just hasn’t been able to hit that upside elsewhere maybe baked out sand infused courses that’s where you’d want to go but my short-term modeling and I think about power rankings for this week SE rocker comes in at fifth this is what happens when you have four top 10 in your past five starts his only miscut PGA Championship the last major that we had however in the course fit rankings that I do he is 103d in this field so my numbers are telling me exactly the same things that Spencers are and I think the way that you want to play this if you can shop around for the best number plus 163 I think is the best number on the market right now let me confirm that for you glash I will see to make the cut to miss the cut if we can wager on Seb straa to miss the cut we will get where are you at here Seb straa yeah plus 167 at betmgm is the best number on the market right now I think that’s the way that you want to try to take advant vage of this this is the hardest cut in golf to make one of the hardest courses to play the hardest tournaments to play period um let’s go to Long Shots p uh Pat Mayo why don’t you get us started please I mean my long shot is the fact that you have developed this like crazy announcers voice over the past five years it is unbelievable you don’t sound like the same person glash well I’ve grown up a little bit Pat I you’re not the same age as me no but I’ve grown up a bit that’s all you like you sound like I mean you do the play byplay for all of these teams so I would expect to tune into a game and hear someone like you talking with that voice but it just it’s it’s shocking to me to hear it at this point what what happened to loose fun guy now you’re like super serious voice mad I’m not mad I’m just trying to keep the Train on the tracks so oh yeah you invited me how is that ever gonna happen should have known better when I knew you were coming on this podcast long shots so it depends on how long you want get leave it at that cam Smith and Hideki matama are two that I am going with from that what I would consider mid-tier I think that anyone who doesn’t bet on golf normally would consider 40 to1 and 55 to one to be pretty large bets but in golf it’s kind of in that middle range but the reason that I’m doing that is because I like to play a lot of Bets with placements which means that is two bets for those keeping track at home or who are interested in that meaning that if I bet $100 on let’s just call it make it something very very easy uh let’s yeah let’s use cam Smith as an example 40 to1 on cam Smith ey wager $100 50 of those dollars goes to his outright win at 40 to1 which would return $2,000 another $50 would go to whatever his placement is and there’s a myriad of different ways that you can make placement you can play a top three a top five a top eight a top 12 whatever it might be I took eight places so 50 of my dollars goes towards a top eight finish as well at 1 the odds so you do the quick math on that what’s that eight so you’d have eight to one for a top eight finish at 50 so you’re looking at what 400 bucks on that no do I have that right yeah so 400 bucks on that if he comes inside the top eight it’s a great way that if you really do that if you want to have that upside of a winning golfer now if they hit both you win 2400 bucks just keep that in mind but it’s a nice way to try to return some of your profits for your outright Stakes that Sheffer goes and beats the crap out of everyone this week so I did the same thing with Cami at the eight places I did the same thing with Hideki so an even larger payout he’s 11 11.25 to1 to come inside the top eight along with his 55 to1 there’s no better player at us opens in terms of Strokes gained approach over the past five years than Hideki he had only played twice the Masters in PGA Championship until last week over the past two and a half months and he looked good last week he looked like the Hideki who was the second best player in the world or at least on the PGA tour to Scotty sheffler earlier this season before he had his weird neck injury and just kind of disappeared back to Japan for a while now he’s back and ready to at least try to try to make us some money at the US Open now we can keep going down real long shots see Kim 100 to one eight places the Zaden how who Spencer mentioned already 110 to one with eight places so those would be the six I was going with and if you really want to get freaky you can take yourself some Taylor more 300 to one and you can play that with 12 places if you want to and all of these pay one5 in terms of the placement along with the outright win so I know it’s a bit complicated for people who don’t play golf normally but in tournaments like this it’s a great way to get your money because every single sports book out there is going to increase usually is a top five or a top six where you get your placement at major championships it’s eight places or 10 places for exactly the same price the way I would try to think about it is you can play a top eight right now we can use that cam Smith one uh again so you have to bet him to win out right at 40 to1 but you get 8 to one for a top eight finish to bet cam Smith at top 10 at the moment this is the way that I like to think about it and why I think that the placement bet is better that if we go to top finishes and we look at top 10 odds for cam Smith cam Smith’s top 10 odds are plus 375 so if I wager a $100 on Cameron Smith to come inside the top 10 I win $350 if I wager $100 50 on his win and 50 on his top eight I have the potential to win $2,400 however if he just just comes inside the top eight you give up two placement points but you win $400 on top of that so it’s a basically you give up two points for better odds on a top 10 with all of the upside of a player winning that would be the best way that I can try to simp did you get that Clash I don’t know if you’re into each way Bing or not does that make sense to you yeah I I wish I had a pen um but that’s why I’ll go back and listen and stop you know pause begin pause begin so people ask me all the time if you just Google each way betting golf it has like the Wikipedia description much more concise than what I just laid out but I want to give you the reason why I think especially during major Seasons Sports books will give you better odds on A lot of these things and finding little niches like this in the golf Market are where you want to go like it didn’t happen this time around but there are some weird head-to heads out there from like the Masters I think it was like Herman versus OE in a head-to-head but they were also facing each other in the top left-handed player market and the odds were just completely different so if you found the market that you liked better just by clicking through everything you got to spend a little bit of time searching around but sometimes you can find odds that are at odds with one another and if there’s one side that you really like you can get better odds on that because they just offer every sports book offers so many bets during major weeks that they just can’t keep track of them all excellent Pat and all kidding aside that’s uh that’s good stuff and good advice I think for folks that might be tuning in and just are interested in these major championships to get involved in Spencer uh long shots for you that you’re eyeing I mean it’s probably the two that I’ve talked about so far I agree with everything of what Pat said with Hadi Matsuyama you look at what he’s done with his approach play at the US Open he is consistently gaining five plus Strokes to the field with that area of his game you add that to being one of the best around the green players in the world this course plays very well for him he had an increase in projected production in off the tea it wasn’t a massive total but it was enough to really move him into of value I talked about minwu Lee already and then um I always run my model to just try to figure out what players in the field grade inside a certain percentage so for me this week what players graded inside of the top 50 of every single category that I ran and there were four of the 15 players that ended up doing that that if you search around on the odds board um some of these I like more than others and we’ve seen some movement around some of these prices but there were four of them that are 80 or above on the odd slate so that was Ben on Ben on on has been a very sharp mover this week sunj IM minwu Le hatat talked about sewo Kim I always can get behind a little sewo Kim action do do you think that might just be that a lot of these sharp headers are in South Korea I mean it it sounds like that I guess at least a lot it might be a lot of the big money bets that are coming and maybe it’s not even sharp based off of that it’s like the big whales that are just coming in and you see it in the local bakar rock games in Las Vegas you go there and you just have millions of dollars on the table it’s funny like I mean I bet on sewo but SEIU and minwu have suffered from very similar Fates this year that they I mean SEIU especially cannot putt which is a real problem but I bet on him anyway just in case this the one week he does putt because the rest of his game if you just took putting out of the equation Spencer how highly up do you think that seiw would rate top 10 top five even adding putting to the equation for me he is right around the top 20 when you ran this from a statistical perspective he’s a top 15 win Equity candidate that’s including a pretty decent amount of putting in my model so the ball striking would put him inside of the top 10 100% and think about glash you know this because I know you know so much about C woo Kim but played Donald Ross courses very well throughout the course of his career played Pete D courses very well throughout the course of his career the only place where he has won in his five TNS that actually has rough built up around the green was at a Donald Ros course at the Windam Championship everywhere else where he’s played his best golf has all of these runoff areas just like you have at Pinehurst so I would expect his around the green to be very good this week so if he can just chip it closer than everyone else then hell maybe he can make a four- foot putt I wouldn’t I mean I am betting on the fact that he could make a four- foot putt but it might not be a great bet we’ll see I I have a weighted TAA green Outlook in my model that’s geared specific ly towards Pinehurst so that would be removing putting from the equation and it’s only taking off the tea approaching around the green there it’s not taking all the other categories that would matter but number one Scotty number two Hideki number three SE SEIU Kim so that kind of shows where seiu’s at if he could just ever make a putt so I I ran a very similar type of thing just for just for Pinehurst specifically and while it doesn’t have putting isolated in it it does have stats that include putting just at different styles of courses you know firm and fast difficult to hold greens super fast greens like all of that’s going to come into play even when you do scrambling percentage or Strokes gain total putting is going to be a factor in that so it did hurt sewu a little bit but he ended up raing out seventh of every player in this field with Scotty Xander Fleetwood Hideki Rory being the top five and then Dustin Johnson my model like Dustin Johnson also and maybe that’s some of the fantasy National stuff that I pulled so shout out to fantasy National there but um Dustin graded well on my model and you think of where Dustin has always found success it’s at these prototypical US Open type venues I don’t know where his game is specifically at right now compared to some of those other iterations but the math did like him on my end too it’s really strange because he I mean he missed he was ter I think that the Masters just really sticks out in people’s mind that he had a bad Open Championship sure but he was especially bad at the Masters like he play okay at the p PGA Championship he was top 10 at the US Open last year so I think in the short term it looks really bad obviously he’s a prolific US Open player over the years you know the amount of top 10 the win that he had I guess he was in 2017 now 2016 yeah 2016 because he he lost he came in second two spe at Chambers Bay and then won the next year outlasting Shane Lowry in 2016 at Oakmont but I I just worry that he retired from golf a year and a half ago and just didn’t tell anyone all right let’s wrap this up let’s do some outrights then we’ll get out of here Pat Mayo uh some outrights Best Bets final bets we’ll get out of here okay so the six I’m going with will call mayo6 and if you need to know more about this and you listen to this in time I’m Gonna Be Live on the Mayo media Network YouTube channel at 8:00 pm Eastern Time on YouTube you follow me at the pme on X formerly known as the twitters and you will find the direct link there but if you’re looking for it and you have questions you can come to me I’ll probably yell at you through the camera but that’s okay not I can’t I can’t physically hurt you as GL only emotionally hurt you you still yell at people that’s still your strategies if if people come on to my chat and they ask stupid questions they get launched immediately do you block people still on YouTube oh yeah you know what people love when they’re watching me yelling at not them it’s true if you’re not the one being yelled at it can be quite entertaining go don’t ask a stupid question don’t be afraid to ask a stupid question because it will create great entertainment for my show the six that I’m going with this week which all actually add up to be less than what I would have to wager on Scotty Sheffer to win the same amount of money which is crazy to think about Colin morawa you can bet him at 17 to1 I used a boost on him to get him up to 26 to1 but I would still bet him at 17 if that was the case I think that he’s going to win this week Brooks kka 25 to one still lingering out there 20 in most spots you can find a 25 love Brooks cam Smith 40 to1 with the eight places that I talked about Hideki Matsuyama 55 to1 with the eight places that I talked about ditto 8 places with see woo Kim at 100 to one and Christian Baden Hout at 110 to1 and I said if you want to get real crazy Taylor Moore is out there at 300 to1 you probably never heard of him and frankly at 300 to1 you probably never will but what if he wins 300 to1 Spencer wouldn’t that be great that’s the dream top 20 in both Majors so far uh my my outright card I am going to go to Xander I I think 11 to one is the very cutoff point of where I’m still willing to get to that number uh minwoo in the 80s is a great price you might be able to shop around and find a little bit better there with Pat on hii at 55 to one and if you want to get really aggressive with your card and this is still going to be less than a Scotty wager I also like Rory mroy um those are the two guys for me at at the very top of the board that can compete with him with some of their flat stick stuff and then the two head-to-head bets Fades of straa in general I like what Pat talked about of potentially betting him to miss the cut you know a minwoo Le ticket is one way to go but one of the things I always do in the head-to-head Market is I’m finding Players I Want to fade versus ones that I’m technically trying to back so there are a lot of options out there that are going to make sense for me of routes to fade sep straa and then I do like baz andout over hadwin at minus 120 all right gentlemen I think you both wran out of Shameless plugs you partly did my job because I was going to ask you Pat where you’d be 8 o’clock Eastern the night of June 12th is that right on Mayo media Network talking all things US Open and if you have tons of time on your hands and you really want to dig in check out the pat Mayo Experience Podcast you can go to Mayo media Network for the video or just type in the pme it’ll pop up or you can get the audio versions we’ve had five shows already this this week and everything that you want to know about a show player by player breaking down their stats and potential a course research show where we really dig in to both how it’s going to play with visuals and stats another show where we’re goofing around and making bets the Best Bets of the week plus all the updated info like John ROM not playing in this tournament which yeah no one really seems to care about yeah I’m glad you mentioned that with ROM that came out yesterday so he’s uh he’s out with some the injury concern um and Spencer thank you follow along for Spencer agar more content from Hit action network.com also links and locks podcast okay very good Pat thanks for being here this was fun thanks for having me on great times y I’m gonna work on that voice and get more fun for you next time great well I mean it’s so it’s so good now I wouldn’t change it for the world you’re saying it was bad before okay I’m saying it’s just so much different it’s us like we used to have like good time Party Time fun times here yucking it up you sound like a very you could be a news broadcaster now you could be I mean I I don’t want to say that could be Walter kronite but maybe you could with that if you started smoking like two packs a day you could be Walter kronite is what I’m saying all right well I’m gonna go buy a pack of marble Reds there go get them in you why do you think my voice sounds like this Pat Mayo of the pat Mayo experience thanks for stopping by Spencer agar of the Action Network Brendon glashen thanks for everyone tuning in to the Action Network podcast we are presented by B MGM best of luck enjoy the US Open for
1 Comment
If Mayo says to not bet Xander then you should bet Xander.