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what is up everybody Welcome to better golf podcast I’m your host Spencer agar and I am excited to be joined for the third major of the Year by my partner Nick brwi who you can find on Twitter at sticks piix but before we get started on the show today and give you our favorite Fades plays and top options to consider for any of the markets that we’re you want to talk about here or that we will discuss I want to very quickly talk about Underdog fantasy the proud sponsor of this podcast Underdog is now offering their new pick eight special where you can add eight selections to your pick entry and win up to 325 times your money code bgp gets you an additional firsttime deposit offer up to $250 in bonus cash that you can pair with a special bet so if you aren’t doing so already now is the perfect time to sign up over at Underdog fantasy Nick it’s good to have you back man how are you doing I’m good I’m excited for the US Open I have already narrowed down my player pool which I I feel like has given I’m trying to tweet this damn link here we go we’re good Link’s tweeted all right um player pool is settled I think there’s maybe some people you could change my mind on but other than that we’re locked in I have pretty much like 45 players so a little heavy of a player pool for my liking but um you’ll kind of get the the gist of it one I’ll start I’m fading Scotty um for the record I do have hand builds with him I think like Monday morning right when the player pool comes out think I probably put him in like 10 lineups just because at that point I was like all right he can’t lose it’s impossible but then you know as I go on uh I think you have a great breakdown on not necessarily supporting fading Scotty or advising maybe is a better word but why he can potentially be beat but other than that I’m excited you and Byron crushed it last week it was pretty fun to listen to that on my way home as I was out of the office but um appreciate him hopping on and and filling in for me there and you guys did a great job and God damn we are so close with col aawa but Scotty had to ruin golf again I did like seeing him actually have a fist pump when he made that pump on uh that putt on 18 showing a little bit of emotion I I feel like I’m not anti- Scotty but like come on let’s get a little fired up out there that’s the kind of stuff that happens when you go to jail you get hardened up it’s true yeah he did hard time all right uh where do you want to start you want to go through your bets real quick I know that I love your outright card um now that you mentioned it I I did end up taking zelot tus at 100 to one which is terrible but he’s getting his distance back a little bit so I don’t know maybe he’s just iron play away from everything clicking but I don’t like that ticket but I do love your outright card so what do you got I went very heavy at the top and you can hear you can hear a full breakdown of that at on the links and locks podcast at Action Network that is I it’s going to be out in a couple hours I don’t know exactly when at what time we just filmed it a little bit ago but I took this approach and and you can kind of get more of that of what Nick is discussing with my Scotty sheffler fate in that area where I think there are some golfers at the very top of this slate where golf is right now being viewed as a big one and I tend to think that even if one player is the one that’s winning all the events from a statistical Outlook it’s actually more of a big three where yes one of them has separated from the rest of the pack but the other two are putting together finishes where if you could just give them each an additional Victory I think this would be looked at a lot closer so some of these numbers have moved I got this early on Monday I took Xander schle at 13 to1 that was at bet 365 inside their enhanced Market bet Rory maroy at 14 to1 that was over at bet online Hideki Matsuyama 55 to one that was a bet 365 number also and then I closed my card with Min wo Le 85 to1 you can still readily for the most part find 80 to1 aail Nick you mentioned that you have a player pool this week the last I had talked to you I don’t know if Min wo was going to be a part of that if he’s not what are the chances that I can convince you to actually putting him in the player pool he is in my outright card dude I’m seeing like 14% ownership I’m in wo Le I I think I’m principal I gotta be out it’s a great price like don’t get me wrong okay let me ask you this here go ahead go ahead I was just very quickly you don’t have to give me all the places I mean not that it matters it doesn’t do anything for for anything we’re talking about but where is the majority of that ownership coming from from where you’re pulling data golf stochastic and rotor Grinders is a lot less let me pull up where minmo is there I got to refresh too no minmo is at 14% on rotor Grinders so on 7300 like it’s a great price data golf where is one of the ones that I use the majority of my pulling from and I have not updated this for the record in oh they’re at nine yeah I have 9.85 was the last update on my end so here’s my dilemma I would rather go all the way the [ __ ] in on Sam Burns and potentially even Tom Kim and here’s another thing is I kind of do like Cameron young to where I want to like I feel like he’s going to fall under the 5% range in this range because everybody’s going to go to minwu or Tom Kim probably maybe Sam Burns I I just don’t understand why Sam Burns would be sub 10% when he’s a great driver of the golf ball good short game great putter obviously like all that good stuff and his iron is game is in good shape I don’t know I don’t really have a reason to fade minm Le like Roberto if it’s 13 I’m out but Roberto talked about it like his driving accuracy is on the come up like significantly to where like he was in 2023 and 2022 the guy maybe never hit a fairway yeah short game’s awesome that’s the thing though his short game has not been awesome this year it it has not been that is one of the weaknesses in my model be before we move further into this could that be that he’s hitting way more greens of Regulation which is why you love him I mean he’s hitting more the iron proximity has improve or is very good from 175 plus yards a lot of the stuff from within that still has massive red flags inside of my model I I guess I mean naturally based off of that answer he’s gonna be better I I want to very quickly Nick before we move on I I saw Scotty in the chat say that Rory’s getting back with his wife is that factual news I I have not seen this yet hi Miss Scotty uh I have no idea he would know more than me is that true I’ll go to news oh divorce off as couples resolve difference damn it we should fade he was what’s going on what do you have like a two weer with uh Amanda Bell and he’s like you know what this this isn’t this isn’t working I don’t get it I I’m less bullish on him than I was before thank you for bringing that to our attention Scotty that is what really matters here I I don’t know know I mean I still think that he’s a fantastic play I think you’ve said it best with Xander and Rory like those guys can get extremely hot with a Putter and that’s how you can beat Scotty shuffler but I don’t know I don’t have strokes gain divorced and then you know what Amanda was not as good as I thought I I don’t know I don’t want to dog on her either she’s she’s a nice girl I’ve never met her but Amanda if you’re listening I’m sorry I mean all this with the utmost respect but I’m so fad and Scotty I’m not paying 13,000 but would not advise you guys to do that like he is the best course fit by a million I I guess I mean I I’ll let you talk about some of your betting card um before we officially move on but let me just ask you this as we’re on the topic right now and then once you give me your card we can move into this $110,000 range but what what ownership do you see on Scotty and what is the difference between Scotty to the rest of that pack which I mean I guess is going to be Des Shambo Rory Xander for most I guess kku I guess my Aggregates have Scotty at 37% I’ll take the over I don’t see how many people would have the balls or the lack of brains potentially in my case to fade him uh Rory at 17 Xander at 22 and who else John Ron withdrew so no one else in that conversation um probably I don’t think I’ve updated what Gen R I’m withdrawing but what was he going to get 5 to 8% Max so I don’t think it changes a ton I had him at 5% um I’m probably too low based off of my numbers compared to yours I definitely trust your ownership more than mine I have Scotty at 4.28% I I would lean towards that probably being more accurate on the other end though was Xander I only had him at 16 and a half percent I do tend to think that you’re probably right that he gets into that 20% or higher range yeah what do you have let’s get into some questions yeah if you guys got questions fire him up um morawa is not in that conversation of pricing so we’ll get to him but uh my betting card is min mle also you did talk me into that so I’m I get it I think the upside is completely there I if he’s dude I I think everybody’s going to steam him up I do think he’s going to close around the 12 to 15% ownership range and if he misses a cut I think that’s a land mine I could avoid by some other guys that I do trust a little bit more in that price range mainly Tom cim Sam Burns probably even sunre I think that we both convince ourselves that he’s back yeah uh Rory at 12 to1 Tommy Fleetwood at 44 which I stand by that pick I like that one I do too and I did it again Tony feno 75 to one so cira and Circa has Tony fenos 75 to1 and Tommy Fleetwood 44 to1 Tommy or Tony feno’s probably never going to make enough butts to win but it’s coming to life a little bit just a little bit I I do let let me take a couple of these question questions that have been asked um I think there’s been some good ones so Jacob said what’s a reason to not put the house on Hideki the answer is always withraw always injury and putter those those are the two things that come into play for him he’s gonna be a statistical darling when you build a model he inside of the top six for me in any way that I ran it do think the outright number is nice um I have that ticket myself Zack Jeffers can we get back to CZ this week I I have a head-to-head bet you can still find it at bet 365 um Baden Hal minus 125 over Adam hadwin I got it at minus 120 that number ballooned up at the book that we took it at into the minus 140s that minus 125 price is still doable I do you look at that as you are backing CZ or just fading hadin completely both so I’m not I’m not high on either okay was Bez is like what do you have his ownership at 12 we’re just going way off the ownership is the ownership is massive inside of my model so it it makes sense why it would be he a $6,200 golfer who has been it’s almost the the sep straa argument of this where those are going to be the two chalk plays in the $6,000 range just with the results that we’ve seen but I am fading straa I think with Baden Hal it comes down to an ownership game more than anything else but I I yeah he’s I think he’s which is a weird answer to give and this doesn’t mean he’s making the cut but I do tend to think for as volatile of a tournament as this is and for a golfer that is absolutely horrendous off the tea in all metrics whether that is distance accuracy anywhere you want to look he is very robust in all the other areas best finish in the major T30 in 2021 but his ball striking is the best it’s ever been so he’s a different player now very true all right um a local ringer at greater then 1% I will go with Scotty sheffler easy question thank you Casey stick around that’s easy I like that um all right let’s go the top of my board here 10K and above here are the four players that are in Brooks Bryson Xander Rory again disclaimer I do have like 10 hand builds Monday morning with Scotty sheffler so if the Masters thing happens again which I would love that to happen again um that would be why Brooks I having a hard time reading I feel like his ownership’s going to creep below 15% everybody was kind of on him at the PGA and the Masters and I feel like now that Love’s lost and he’s just not a really a sexy item this week I think he’s a perennial driver of the golf ball hits the ball very high I think he’ll be have no issue stopping it on these greens Bryson I truly did want to fade uh Xander I can’t say anything wrong about him he’s my favorite player in golf um for some reason I bet Tony feno more than I bet Xander um but Rory maroy as well same thing um the divorce thing though I I like Scotty we should take a stand just get him out and start at Xander but I think Rory has a ton of win equity in this tournament I do too to me there’s I said the the big three more so than the big on so um I I do like Scotty like I still think he’s playable he’s playable and absolutely yeah I’m not going to go as far as like I don’t want that to be lost to where I know you’re not saying this side either Nick it’s this is you being aggressive with your builds it’s not a testament against what Scotty Sheffer is or isn’t going to do here but I I guess when I look at my board and and I wish even at 5% ownership like I would have eaten up a little bit of of ownership there with ROM I don’t know where that’s going to necessarily move at this moment it’s probably going to go because Xander is the easiest to get to and maybe that’s where my increase or my lack of increase that I have right now on Xander is not showing up for popularity but Scotty Rory Xander that’s kind of where the majority of the win Equity is I am much much much lower than consensus on Bryson Des Shambo you could sell me really one way or another on Brooks capka I tend to think though that this $10,000 range has so much more win Equity than what we have in the $9,000 territory so yes I I like the big three there I’m gonna play the big three and I could make a pretty sound argument to get rid of everybody else I love it all right so in terms of cash games we talked about a lot of the ownership there Scotty sheffler I think’s a lock and cash right I mean he’s literally a walking top five um High ownership I was surprised that great question I think mini is going to come in a lot higher than what most projection places will say uh Christian Baden how’ I get he’s a clear Mis price sep straa I saw like close to 15% at 6500 and then Benny on up there pretty high too what are your thoughts on that I like Ben on [ __ ] you want to talk about Apex and players that fit this course he hits the piss out of the ball yeah as we’re moving across this I see Trevor’s question about what Adam Scott’s upside look like looks like for me I know you’re very high on him Nick and we can have this discussion as we move forward but I think he’s a borderline top 30 sort of an upside play which I guess is an it’s a value at that price it’s a value based off of where we’re at right now so um I I worry about what the actual upside ends up being he’s he’s a model breaker every single week and I never quite seem to get the results That I Want from him but a good spot for for Adam Scott I know he’s a golfer that didn’t think he was gonna be playing this tournament yeah that’s true so it’s you would lean Bryson over Brooks in that upper tier no I would lean Brooks over Bryson I want to get Bryson out of there all right 9k I absolutely love Victor havland I think everybody probably loves Victor havin I love L aberer oberg morawa what can you say wrong about him I think in cash games I probably gotta play him too so I have Scotty sheffler Bez morawa and Sam Burns currently would you fade more Kawa again I’m making my mme for mil maker so it’s like shooting for the moon type of [ __ ] so I should probably I don’t know I can’t get rid of morawa he’s got significant top five upside in he’s 9,400 seems like a Mis price I would rather if I’m being honest just get fully rid of Des Shambo and you can sell me one way or another on kka I feel like I just don’t want to miss Brooks going off when not many people play him that’s fair I I don’t have a problem with him being in the pool he’s a value um across the board and he’s neutral when it comes to leverage for me so I don’t have anything wrong to say about him dambo and ROM before ROM ROM withdrew were the two worst values that I had in that upper tier section and then for the most part the rest of the $9,000 range you either have no ownership with options like Klay and Clark or I don’t want to to say Nick that I’m out on Victor havin he is fine I have no issues with him I would just rather get up once again and put those funds towards if I can get up to Xander and just reconstruct lineups that way or play over okay you do like you like oberg more in havland yeah okay nice seems like projection systems do too so I had to like manually pump hin because I do like him a ton and he’s a great P di player is he let he GRS fine across my model um it’s one of those things that I and I mentioned this yesterday Donald Ross sorry not P TI my bad I I mentioned this yesterday on the Roto baller show but you take Victor hin specifically we are one major championship away removed from nobody wanting to play him on DFS he was a 50 to1 option we aggressively backed him in that tournament because I think we thought that that had moved too far in the other direction but now you’ve shift this into this spot where he’s 9,800 he’s sub 20 to1 he is fine I would rather take the upside on oberg or my general safety that I have on morawa that’s fair okay I have one other guy in the 9k range that is in my player pool that means I faded Windam Clark which I don’t think is a ballsy move at all I just think he’s broken I’m gonna keep that going I don’t mind Patrick hlay as much as if Windam Clark’s broken Patrick hle is broken too but what are your thought I mean he hasn’t hit a fairway since Augusta which everybody hits Fairways there do you hate Patrick hlay I know the market does the ball striking like they didn’t show many shots I watched I think the the actual like his stream on PJ Tour live on ESPN plus last week and I thought he would hit it okay his Strokes game putting was miserable I I like kley and I like Windam you like Windom what’ you like in Windom in terms of Leverage I get both of those guys are solid plays windham’s driving the ball well obviously he always does but accuracy’s good Memorial how do he hit the ball iron wise let’s pull that up pretty good Miss A C I didn’t not I full faded winom last week I I thought he was the Trap of all traps I talked about this on the show with Byron that I I wanted nothing to do with him in DFS I I took Tony fow in a match up against him those are two golfers to where more so with Windam it’s a little bit with Patrick also but you get a price tag here where it they are going to be so overpriced in the eyes of the public that nobody is going to play them and this is where we’re talking about leverage and where we can get into any of those answers but what I always like to see if I’m willing to go again against what the consensus is in either direction and specifically here when we’re talking gpp contest I want to see a positive trajectory into my model for upside if you can deliver a positive trajectory for upside I am so much more likely to ignore some of the recent form and shoot for that when we have sub five six per in those areas there’s going to be a ton of volatility that’s going to come into play with both of those options cannot make an argument that either one of them should be price where they are and if they were $8,000 golfers well the price tag would be more relevant to where they should be all of a sudden the ownership would be higher so it’s a given a take in that spot I am willing to take a gamble I I I’ve said this a million times and this is not one of those spots where I I like to call my model the Windam Clark Whisper had him last year at the US Open had him at Pebble Beach there’s been a lot of spots where it’s been right on him correctly faded him last tournament I wouldn’t say that this is some aggressive approach is a negative value for me but Nik does jump inside of the top 15 for Pure upside here so that’s where I am intrigued to at least want to bite the bullet and I’m not going to full fat him he will make lineups and he will find a way to get fit in with different players all right first in pod Edition I’ll get some Windam Clark do you hate can’t or like if you had to choose one or the other I like both of them I I think I think they’re very close to one another um so all right JT is in my player pool JT out for wiam Clark in I that’s how I would lean I’m not gonna hold it against you very long we’ll we’ll be sure to get this player pull up to about 70 five players yeah that always happens all right I’m putting Windam Clark in some stuff then Windam we got room for you in this line there we go all right AK range who did I fade let me pull that up Cameron Smith will zelot tus even though I bet will zelot tus outright I’m okay with that I think that was a stupid Ticket No Going Back probably gonna fade JT now I don’t know about maxom I think it’s a great price I’m surprised more people aren’t on him I think he’s just safe and I don’t want to miss like I look at these guys like who could finish inside the top eight to 10 and not surprise me I want to post the lock button on Tommy fleetw just because I don’t think anybody else will because I know the whole narrative if he can’t win but that is fine at 8,500 have a lot of Matt Fitzpatrick a good bit of feno and Hideki I want to fade so bad but like you said he is a stats darling and every single model is gonna love him yeah I I would say for me I’m out on JT out on cam Smith I there are some numbers for cam Smith when it just comes to the his safety and the way that he approaches some of these venues I don’t know if it matters if you don’t ever find a fairway and you run into uh some struggles there so I’m out on cam Smith at the ownership that we currently have if this was going to be a spot where there was no ownership around him I would have been more inclined to take a shot in that direction H I think is fine great leverage to consider like Tommy Fleetwood probably Fleetwood Fitz and Hideki would be the three best values in this section without looking at ownership probably gonna be out on Tony feno I’m out on zalatoris what do you not like about feno besides history with us I have them outside for upside of the top 25 for me um you could maybe sell me a little bit differently on this if you could give me an ownership percentage that’s lower than what I have but I don’t really want to get caught on any of these names when I’m probably going to already take the route of playing the chalk with Fleetwood and Hideki I don’t want to and maybe even Fitzpatrick in that like I would rather lose all that dead weight of the 10 to 12% guys like the Thomases Smiths fenals there are players I would rather have than them okay that’s cool matuyama just push it I’m going to unfortunately bite the bullet with Hideki and probably regret doing it afterwards this is a different spot though and we’ve talked about this quite a few times Nick when you look at Hideki and he is a popular choice at 10 ,000 that is a much different route that we are considering than Hideki who’s 8,000 I I’m much more inclined to just say we are getting a good value here I will eat the chalk in this position Fair all right 7900 I’m keeping Jordan spe in the field something has to give what is going on how is he hitting the ball so so well off the te and the iron game is terrible yeah when you left uh links and locks Roberto asked me my take on Jordan spe and lock button I don’t know if I go that far but I tend to agree with you that he is very playable at as a guy that like I keep talking about this if you’re if it’s his wrist like Ed I get it but if it’s his wrist why is he hitting the driver I I know like there’s no impact to the ground obviously that’s a big differentiation like my wrist has never really hurt in golf but I could feel the you know the reverberation from the ground when you’re taking a div and hitting down on the ball with an iron as opposed to hitting up on driver but even when he’s clubbing down he’s mashing it too so I don’t know he hasn’t missed a Fairway in a long time Strokes SC off the te is by far the best of his career I feel like he’s going to close at like 5% and I’m okay I’m a fanboy so like I could make peace with doing it but like would it really surprise you if 7900 Jordan spe and a course that doesn’t require like birdie making for the most part to finish inside the top 15 it’s the same answer in a lot of ways just for cheaper that I talked about with Windam Clark and Patrick Klay it’s there’s no ownership with upside in my model and safety numbers that are going to just be horrible and the safety numbers are what’s going to push everybody off of him yep okay I’m glad you’re on that then uh terl Hatton staying in my player pool you you hate him uh another guy where I’ve never got him right the upside better than the safety I I’m fine with him Shane Lowry blew up my total driving can’t make a put I’m out on Shan where to me the value is and you texted me asking about that range from 74 down 74 and down like outside of I’m not really that high on Cory coners um I am personally out on Cameron young if you move it up $100 more but everybody else in that range would be the players that I am trying to figure out a way to get to it’s Ben on sun Jay minwoo Tom Kim I like Dustin Johnson faded Jason day last week like Jason day this week yeah that one interest me I uh I did fade Ben on I see 133% with Ben on in my Aggregates yeah I’m okay fading him he’s been trending up just because I think that’s a data golf thing where this started and I don’t necessarily love him as much in the outright Market um as data golf seem to but when I ran my numbers initially top 20 player for projected win equity which is going to obviously put him as a value when he was over 100 to one to start this inside of the top 20 for me for safety and overall rank I I have a hard time getting off of benon even if you look last week and I had a head-to-head on Saturday of Ben on over zalatoris entering the fourth round Ben on should have been if you just took his Baseline short game and his Baseline putting is never a good thing which means he’s even worse than that he should have been inside the top 10 of that leaderboard and when you usually get these these positions where a player is striking the ball really well and you only can get up to a 22nd Place finish there’s more potential that’s there that I don’t think he produced and it’s unfortunate because data somewhat ruined this game by saying he’s the best value on the board which I unfortunately agree with them as him being one of the best values it’s just value is value when you’re looking at a 7100 price I could make a really strong argument for almost any of those guys that we talked about Tom Kim included where they should be $8,000 or higher and in a major championship you get a suppression of of a price in a lot of these spots and it’s why you get soft pricing and it’s why it makes it very easy to get to a name like Scotty sheffler because you have options and I I’ve seen Russell Henley’s name pop up a million times in the chat already he’s gonna be he’s gonna be very popular but that’s why and and that’s fine to Fat him I don’t love the lack of upside and the safety numbers when like that to me that’s not what I I don’t want cash game plays even for the price there but that’s why it’s so easy to play the options like Scotty because you have Baden Hal you have Henley you have all these options that are inside of a model they should be 7,500 or greater but somebody had to get pushed down y okay that’s where you have to differentiate Nick like it’s gonna be such a common build of Sheffer Baden Hal Henley like we’re we’re just gonna see that over and over again and Ben On’s probably going to be one of the popular Clicks in that space just due to form I liked Ben on a ton he was like my sleeper for Augusta and the top 20 bet there too to me I rather play a meta course where missing Fairways is not nearly as penal as what pineer is likely going to be Ben on regardless of the ownership I I can’t get off of him and and I think really the reason for that more than anything is so as everybody knows I run my model over a two-year running perspective with it but one of the things I like to add through some of these events is I like to take a much shorter term Outlook of players in specific categories that are are geared towards the venue so driving distance for Ben on inside the top five for me driving accuracy outside of the top 75 but when you throw them specifically at courses that are going to be similar so Strokes gain off the tea at hard scoring Strokes gain off the tea when Fairways present the penalty Strokes gain off the te when you have these hazardous conditions that come into play he’s 15th in hardcoring 20th where it becomes a little bit more like imperative that you find it and then ninth when you throw in this really Hazard hazardous uh return to it that put him 14th overall in my model so I think if you just ran this from expected driving accuracy on any course it’s going to look terrible when you gear it specifically for venues like this and then you add the Apex that he brings to the table I kind of feel like Ben on is gonna top 10 this tournament and and actually be around I just can’t get off of him at the ownership this is to me where I keep saying at least data golf is the ones that pushed it I I guess like they’re better than some people that could have been pushing this narrative but they are correct in this all right I’ll play some of them up to up to 52 we’re working our way up Nick yeah all right I love it all right uh s theala what are your thoughts about theala to me I’d rather just pay for theala yeah I I like the gala nice okay there’s a lot of players that like are like Cameron young Lowry like give me the go and I’m fine with the ownership there like just because somebody’s owned it doesn’t mean like we can’t remove every single player that’s popular you got to pick and choose your spots of where you’re going to play some of the popular names for me I guess the highest own player that I’m playing obviously outside the top of the board would be fala and Tom Kim yeah so I like them we’ll go lower in the 7K range here Sam Burns I already spoke enough about him Tom Kim you all in I I like Tom I like Tom Kim um I don’t see a massive difference if I’m being honest between Kim minwu Lee sjm Ben on um it’s the hardest decision I had to make was that was what’s left in my single entry build that’s what I sent you as what was left yeah if you’re building out and you have 150 builds like all of those players will be in when you’re trying to condense it down and that is a positive by the way like I I’ve given all the reasons on every show and article this week of why I love Min wo Lee across the board no matter how I’m trying to play this so if I’m throwing guys like Ben on and Sun Jay and Tom Kim into the mix there and Jason day like I’ll include Jason day and I know the market hates Jason day but if those names are making that sort of a a section with m W where it’s not becoming this just Auto pick of minwoo It kind of just shows how valuable I think this section is in general right no doubt okay which I think is going to be I mean like you said it fits Scotty a ton I have Justin Rose in the player pool just for the low owned upside I did like his ball striking over the past like 60 days so I I don’t think there’s a ton of upside with that but just on the ownership side of things I think he if it’s a course that’s not requiring a ton of birdies I think he could be fine in the boook avoid inside of things I I prefer him to like a Ricky Fowler if we’re trying to directly and if you look at what Justin Rose my model liked Justin Rose last week and he imploded on Thursday he he got it together on Friday but it was too little too late I would throw that Thursday round out the window a little bit um can’t say that I necessarily love where Justin Rose is but from a leverage answer see I’m so on Min wo that I still think he’s leveraged no matter where we’re getting here just because my model thinks he should have been a $9,000 price golfer and we’re never going to get that here so it’s going to end up being leveraged but outside of minwoo and and I guess technically Dustin Johnson you like DJ right I I I like DJ a lot this is a a position I have him I have him in currently what ownership do you see on Dustin I I assume it’s low yeah I I have them at five and I gave this answer at the PGA Championship and Dustin was disappointing there but if you really look he should have missed the cut and yeah he back doored his way to what ended up becoming a top 50 finish and you could argue for what that reason is at the end of the day of we haven’t gotten results from him I I you move to live you take a bunch of money a guy like Dustin Johnson needs the Reps we’ve seen that historically a US Open it if any major if there’s any major out there where he consistently throughout his career at any point no matter where he’s at no matter what’s going on in his personal life where he has continuously gone back to and found success it’s US Open he had a run there from I mean you want to look at like Chambers Bay where he should have won that and then he won it the next year and a little bit before that and a little bit after that he was a top five machine over and over again so really nice course fit for him where people aren’t going want to play him it’s almost Nick where like the PGA Championship was the last time anybody was willing to bite the bullet and he didn’t achieve a result that anybody felt super great about I’m willing to go back another time here and and if we don’t get the result that we want we might need to have a discussion moving forward of of what we actually need to do with Dustin but sub five percent like look at his price tech there there was a time this guy would have been put him with what’s happening on the p tour right now four years ago he’s he’s like Xander aurori in this field like that’s what the price tag would have been yeah and he’s a great driver of the golf while that’s still there I’m in I I think like again for him like of course that’s not a birdie Fest is a perfect fit like the PJ Championship probably wasn’t like a great fit for his game and kind of who he is right now and like Jeff just said like J Johnson like he’s he’s gone these days and there’s no ownership it would be one thing if he was $9,000 golfer that had 15 20% ownership the fact that nobody wants to play him it’s hard to find somebody and and maybe yes you are hoping that he turns back the clock a little bit but that’s something that I’m willing to do when some of the recent data even specifically at these Majors with how I ran it I don’t know if the results are as bad as the perception is yep I’m with you 100% I’m glad you said that uh 6K range let me see who I faded I faded sep I faded the [ __ ] whole thing it looks like which is kind of why I’m not playing Scotty 2 because I don’t want to fall into all these guys that are 8 to 12% in this range that I don’t think are very good leverage in a million maker competition did fade Russ that breaks my heart but I’m sure he’s going to close around 12 to 15% he does every time burter I’m seeing High ownership on Dean berer are you seeing the same thing um yeah he’s he’s definitely trending up up I’m out uh Harris English I tried to talk myself into couldn’t get it don’t like the just mixed range of ball striking that we’re getting Denny McCarthy hard pass Thomas dietre checks the a Apex box I took him out at the last minute dle iron play Austin ekro I’m worried about his around the green I think that you know he actually kind of held his water a little bit at mirfield Village I thought that would beat him up a lot more than it did great driver the golf ball I’m not going to say much bad about him Burger we don’t need to talk about Billy horel is chalk that I faded probably a really good course fit and his game starting to turn back into form but I see like seven to eight% on Billy horel I’ll just take my chances with other guys in that area sea I’m a hard pass on that um other than that like ownership wise Adam hadwin was kind of up there that I took out Baden Hout I’m just playing on principal if he’s going to be over 10% at 6200 I don’t think he’s a part of the million maker lineup so I’m just going to fade but a great cash play guys that I was heavy on uh was Adam Scott I’ve seeing him at 3% I think that he kind of not necessarily going to fill it up but I was safe enough to play very well here I do like his driver I like the increase in putting that we’re seeing keikan Bradley in great form seuk Kim dude I guess I always go overweight on seu Kim but team no putut are you worried about seu at this course everything else is fantastic there were 15 golfers that graded inside of the top 50 of my model in every single category that I looked at um every single I they’re pretty much all the favorites there was one option that was outside or below the $7,000 range that made it that was seuk Kim yes let’s go all right see who’s in I think a lineup with seu and DJ can get me Dustin ironically whether you want to count these stats because like what are we actually getting from him where is he actually at with his game that’s a different argument to be had but Dustin was one of those 15 also it was like SEI Wu sunjay Ben on minwoo Dustin that was kind of that $7,000 I don’t know what Tom Kim missed out on I know he was very close and they missed out because of the iron play uh he was just a oneoff in that category or else he would have made it fair okay I don’t get the day thing but if you had to choose one hat and Lowry theala go theala all right I’m worried about his Fairway ability um other guys I was high on in the low six is what are your thoughts on o back in North Carolina obviously has the the personal ties to Grayson Murray and everything like that like it’d be awesome awesome story and I like o I think he’s a really good player and this you know once that around the green short game game comes around I feel like he’s going to be a force to reckon with because he is a fantastic driver of the golf ball iron plays there long iron plays there I kind of like him if no one else does I was very surprised that he did that well at mirfield I know it’s not like that well in that field with only 70 players or whatever it was but his expected stats for me going into that tournament were way way below what he actually did I think Ed kind of said it best like the $66,000 range is way too popular with a lot of these options and I like bad andal that’s probably where I get different from you Nick where I I regardless of where the ownership is I’m going to play him pretty much every other option that we have talked about that is going to be popular I am willing to remove them from my player pool so like really what the question becomes is where is the contrarian nature of these builds who can you play that isn’t going to be as popular than all these other names that that are just going to be over and over again put into build I kind of thought dietry was intriguing OE would technically be probably from an upside answer one of the best plays that to be considering in that section um you like Power Sergio Sergio I kept Sergio in my player pool for what it’s worth just for the total driving probably not like Howard that I am I I would probably rather play like if we can get into that low $6,000 section we’re talking about some of those names um I like pendrith I I like joerger my modeler dude I do I don’t mind Jager my model actually did like web Simpson I have web Simpson in my player pool yeah I almost lean’s hitting the ball well he is what about Victor Perez and Davis Thompson we can’t quit on Davis Thompson yet Davis Thompson is one of the best values for me Perez I’m dude scoring I’m probably out on him just because I still think he’s going to be it’s not going to be like a massive number but I still tend to think he’s going to be a little bit too popular he started wearing a glove which means a lot to me I didn’t like the the no glove thing that weirds me weirds me out Lucas Glover too out of the player pools for that what about Cam Davis did we talk about him no I was going to ask you about him he’s a positive um value in my model both against draft pricing and against leverage and he has upside in my model so that’s typically what I’m looking for if you can check those three boxes as a long shot bet down the board or DFS play down the board you typically can get my Intrigue and we know that he has certain skill sets that he can pop and really work his way up the leaderboard so I I almost would say Nick that the players that are sub 6,500 I guess let’s say would more so be the options that I want and the names that are 66 to 69 maybe outside of Keegan and see wo and maybe dri like I’m almost fine getting rid of everybody else okay I’m pretty much there I just have Adam Scott as well I did keep Harmon which is disgusting I’m a douchebag I’m fine with Haron no I’m I’m more so like if I’m trying to find the players that I’m completely out on E root y I know we have been a norin show historically I’m going to say I am out on norin this week really yeah okay I did not see that coming I’m gonna get more DJ yeah and I could get off some norin I’m going to keep norin in a couple just because we already went this far but I don’t mind it okay yeah dude I don’t know I feel like he’s just played a ton of golf too which worries me he consist Tom hogi any love for Tom hogi I can never get that guy right I think he has no upside but he’s probably a perennial cut maker here and Adrian Moran thoughts on Adrien my model my model doesn’t have enough data to ever feel comfortable with Moran I think markets seem to like Moran a little bit from what I’ve seen so they do maybe you could sell me on that um hogy kind of the answer that you gave better safety numbers than upside numbers if you’re going to move in the wrong direction for upside and also be a negative value against leverage and DK price I’ll I’ll be out all right I don’t mind fading Tom hogi I’m cool with that what about Tom McKibbon he was a guy who kept in just due the ridiculous placement that he’s having in the DP World Tour know nothing about him usually that works in my favor so I I I don’t to be honest with you I don’t have a take like I don’t have enough data to feel comfortable with it so he’s gonna show negative but I don’t have it take one way or another okay D Tre I feel like we talked about everybody and no one’s don’t do it with Harmon I appreciate it Ed it needs to stop let me let me ask you like o i I do like o o Taylor what about Nick Taylor his ball striking I think is somewhat the rise and he’s going to be 1% I’d probably rather play in Poston probably rather play Cameron Davis than Nick Taylor I’d probably rather play let me give you an option which there’s a little bit more ownership and I assume you’re going to be out because of this reason McKenzie Hughes out you know what’s funny Nick and I’m not going as far as to say that he’s in my player pool but as right as I’ve been about Windam Clark I feel like my take on Kenzie Hughes when I have on him he always it works every time and every single time I fade him I he misses the cut um I don’t have a strong take one way or another I just thought the price was interesting but he really does deliver another one of those very similar answers that we’ve talked about with a lot of these guys where better safety numbers the upside moves in the wrong direction and the popularity while not necessarily High I’ve consistently seen this moving upwards over the last 12 hours or so okay so you like him as of right now if you made me pick a side I would say I’m in on him I this isn’t a strong take one way or another though but enough so where he was a positive value for me okay good to know good to know I by the way I don’t know what to do with kittama like I guess I’m just out yeah here are the 5K guys that I’m playing takumi Kaya just because I’ve always kind of played this guy and his long irons lack of data but grade really well for me so take that for an absolute grain of a grain of sand Adam senson just cuz I can’t quit him I’ve never got him right the opposite of Spencer and mck Hughes is me with Fenson MC Meisner I I still believe this dude’s just an awesome player I kept Nick DP in and then my top 40 Hammer kid Richard Manzel our boy Dicky money Manzel that’s right money Manzel I’m going to play a decent bit of him he is in way too many hand Builds on Monday morning which I decided like that’s going to be my DP World Tour guy that I believe in with his sand save ability short game great driving of the golf ball ball striking everything’s there besides a putter but the three put avoidance over the past three years has gotten insanely better for him in the DP World Tour or so I just think he’s a misprice for the talent that He is there are what is this six you mix Links golf with like Midwest Tree Line Fairway stuff and so I don’t know maybe there’s a little bit of Home in North Carolina for him these are the four five six seven these are the seven players that against their D and this is not taking ownership into account but these are the seven players for me that I had the most value on when we’re trying to Dart throw down the board here Christian Baden Hout was number one he was the most mispriced player I think there’s a reason why the ownership has trended in that direction ma Meisner was number two hey all right step joerger was three Taylor pendrith was four Lucas Glover was five and I know Lucas Glover burned the entire industry of anybody who listened to me on Glover last week but I’m done with him I think the whole world is but you can sell me back on him um no Gordon sergeant and web Simpson I looked at Gordon I do like web I looked at Gordon for a little bit I I had a hard time figuring it out so I just went with the no I have no data on them looked at the M tore it up but sometimes about Hub any thought on hubs my model like he if you want to go down like a couple more names and yeah what else you got he’s a he’s oh I’m just saying like he would be a positive value based off of that list of seven I was giving like he’s not too dissimilar to a lot of those options like Russell Henley would have been next um Min wo Lee Davis Thompson and I guess the name that I actually will throw out there if we’re looking for somebody that kind of fits into that Hub range for me Adam shank dude he is so bad right now that’s the problem he has been horrible since Augusta I think is when I may have played him then just because of benr greens he has been well he finished t13 at Byron Nelson which is pretty good finish at that tournament that’s a tough spot terrible sense in you know Nick when we look at this and we go back throughout time I’ve given up on my fantasy team in the league with you but I off want to thank you for that I I offered you a trade for Adam shank that will go down as one of the worst declines that anybody’s ever made in the history of Life who did you offer again well I mean I I I have my fingers crossed that I will get myself on well I was no I was I hope I get myself kicked out of the league for this like by giving this answer so if Tommy’s listening please remove me that’s all I’m asking for right now but I think I offered Ryan Fox um it was like a four or five player package plus $20 in the side money yeah in the side money that hopefully will get me kicked out of the league uh Rio shank if you want him now I I I probably need him I offered Rio I think it was Rio Fox because I didn’t have like this isn’t because I believed in him necessarily I don’t have enough players for these elevated events and every single week I find myself picking up brt snaker and the minwoo Lee pick has not worked out and the Nikolai hoard pick has really not worked out so um maybe minwoo works out for this tournament but that’s the reason why I don’t have enough player for these elevated events ever and you had a good roster this week this week I’m better it’s funny I’m better in major championships and I’m better in your run-ofthe-mill events these elevated events I’m dead every single week I work myself up the leaderboard in every other tournament and then I implode once we get to an elevated event I during the Genesis I forget what the kid’s name was and he made the cut which credit to him I had to play some random guy in that tournament that was like the sponsor exemption into it um that’s what these weeks have been for me every single time to the kid who’s the kid oh Chase Johnson Chase Johnson that’s exactly who it was I had to pick up Chase Johnson and I I’m just scrambling for players it’s not a good luck last guy sh Kim I don’t like the iron play is a short game Guru so I can’t I won’t talk to outfit if you guys are in I’m indifferent I do think options like him and Justin low are probably values from where they’re priced you could do a lot worse than names like that I’m also not necessarily super aggressively trying to back any of them respect all right that’s all I got you want to give me the winner for this tournament is it is it Scotty is it somebody else Tommy Fleetwood gets it done my numbers love him yeah my numbers love them also I I gave a very as a person who didn’t have a Tommy Fleetwood ticket this week I feel like I gave a very impassioned speech for why everybody should consider Tommy Fleetwood I did appreciate that I I tend to think he’s one of the best values on the board which is a weird answer to give for a golfer that I don’t have on my card and has never won on the PGA tour so take all of that for what it’s worth I will say I don’t love the news that Scotty broke on us here of Rory maroy I almost want to now say Xander ends up winning this and after not winning a major goes back to back in these things but that’d be awesome I’d be very excited if he did I I’ll go I’ll go Xander I guess based off of just to be a little bit different because I feel like Rory is such a consensus answer at this point where it’s the right people that are on that because I do have the outright ticket myself and I know you do also Nick I think it makes a lot of sense but I have heard nobody give Xander and kind of a spot to get different love it all right I think people still don’t respect him I I would agree it’s one of those things where the value if you add one or two more give him give him the PLAYERS Championship give him the players championship and then give him the PGA Championship and I bet you this number would have opened at eight or nine yep I agree 100% he’s the second favorite in my numbers yeah yeah him and Rory are very close but that’s kind of where the Gap is them and then everybody else beneath oh we haven’t really talked much um I just want to at least have this conversation I know you mentioned him for a second I know both of us were very intrigued on ludvig oberg neither one of us got to him inside of the outright Market I was very close at 22 I was very close at 22 but when I did Rory and who oh when I had it was either Rory and Fleetwood or Rory and I can’t get feno if I do this um so I lose the feno ticket if I play Rory and uh mudig I I priced myself out by going Rory and Xander up top the two players that were the closest to my card that I removed would be Fleetwood and oberg so um with you on the oberg answer of him being like the nearest Miss I had and then Fleetwood if you’re correct on it at least I can stomach that fact that one of the two of us will have the ticket because I I do legitimately believe regardless of whatever he ends up doing this week I I I tend to believe he is a legitimate top 12 win Equity candidate in this tournament then the public isn’t going to believe that with the lack of upside we’ve seen so um anywhere in that 40 to plus range makes a lot of sense and I don’t know if you have access to like bet online or bada or any of those books Nick but I got uh I I I don’t know if he still is but oberg this morning was 2 five to one there oh okay let me hold on pull that up as we are on still then I’m still like kind of breaking my yeah 25 to one on bada and that online yeah so I I think it’s a good number it’s I think cira had him at 20 flat too which I appreciate like I I like to see who they’re relatively like the risk is on and I would assume if they’re lowering his number already then they’re taking some respected action on him yeah that and and I like to see where bookmaker usually has let me see where bookmaker has him out of curiosity 19.5 so there you go I I had proper at around 22 that injury concern I guess and just with me going aggressively towards the top there’s no world I can take all three of those but oberg is a very intriguing play I’m with it I thought I just had the uh Millie maker ticket but I don’t [ __ ] this is tough DJ like playing DJ just gets you so out of the comfort zone and I think that’s a great a great thing but is tough to stomach because then this leaves me this lineup leaves me to 6,800 oh seu probably just lock it in I’d rather leave money on the table though but all right see we’ll go get them all right have a great night appreciate you hopping on let me let me just say one thing to that when you leave a lot of money on the table and I don’t think you’re leaving enough money to really give this answer here but like the way to play Baden help for me kind of where I’m trying to go when I fit him into builds is if you leave a lot of extra money on the table you naturally make yourself different just based off of that answer so uh do not be afraid to leave extra funds on the board this week that is going to be how you can differentiate a lot of these builds that are going to be maybe a little bit chalkier in spots that you would normally want to be so just a parting little thought for everybody out there that just because you’re playing chalk doesn’t mean that you can’t get away from it in a different direction but you can find Nick on Twitter stick piix I’m at tof sports as we always talk about if you ever have any questions from any perspective DFS betting anything like that please feel free to reach out to us and then use the code bgp to get a $250 match bonus over on Underdog the site is buzzing with everything that you want with all of those increased contests that they have with the pick eight and all of that so you’re not doing so already sign up with the code bgp we would greatly appreciate that thanks again for all the support support everyone shows us out there and we will see you guys back here next week for another elevated event
