Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) and Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) are once again joined by Keith Stewart, PGA (@KJStewart to break down BETS and DFS options for the 2024 US OPEN!
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Top 10 Golfers To Watch @ Pinehurst (by Joe Idone): https://www.rotoballer.com/2024-u-s-open-championship-power-rankings-top-10-golfers-to-watch-at-pinehurst/1380277
Check out Keith’s Golf Digest Rankings: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/us-open-2024-power-rankings-field-pinehurst
it’s the RO balla PGA show and it is the third major of the year it is the US Open and we brought in the heavy hitter that was with us the last major Mr Keith Stewart sir how are you and thank you for coming back on the show after a disgusting ending last time um you know what I I’ve uh I’ve chosen to not remember that Byron so I’m back um with vengeance the rankings are done and I couldn’t be more excited to be with you and Spencer uh that was my favorite show of the week at the pg8 Valhalla um I mean things kind of got sideways at the end of the week there but I didn’t get arrested so uh I’m here in Pinehurst and um let’s do it let’s do it it’s going to be Father’s Day on Sunday it’s going to be a fun time around we got the pain Stewart Legacy that’s kind of living through this kind of location which had me in tears last night while I was watching that Rerun of 1999 and and all that kind of stuff now that I’m in my older age and Spencer talk to me about what you feeling for this week it’s a fun US Open man yeah the US open’s my favorite major of all them um I I I know everybody’s going to say austa it’s where you you get the same venue every single year there but there’s just something about a US Open with the way that these courses are always set up that I love um I’m excited to be back with you this week Byron I missed the show last week celebrating my girlfriend’s birthday so uh good to be back here doing this it’s going to be a very fun tourn tournament and I’m interested to see how all of our rankings compare together because one of the differences is I don’t know what everybody’s rankings are in comparison to mine I know Byron you have to put the show together with a lot of these things but uh we’re gonna have some good discussions yeah we are going to have some great discussions and it’s the US Open and typically what I try to do when it comes to Majors is use especially now that love has fragmented itself off and the lack of reliable stats coming from that tour and the lack of reliable enthusiasm coming from that tour so to say you know um we’ve seen some really mediocre performances from some Superstars once they’ve headed over there and what I like to do is use major Strokes gained as my Benchmark and my Baseline for my model and that’s what I’ve done again so I’ve got the same data for everybody I’m not worrying about guys doing random things however you’ve played in a major that’s how you’re going to show up in my model yes I’ve done a few Maniac things because I shave my face not only for Mrs Maniac but for Mr Smith and when the shirts and the stash and the hair and the wigs and the Caps all come out it is time to party and this is the week where it’s kind of a different situation folks because cam Smith hasn’t really had a chance to really find himself on a golf course that he can Thrive at this venue is completely different so Keith please tell us I know you’ve already chatted about Pat mayor and how amazing your appearance on there was I feel like your knowledge of com courses Mr Stewart is very impressive uh well so you guys enjoyed that yeah that was a good little Rapport that Pat and I put together the other night I’m getting thumbs up oh my god um the thing is I was almost going to call you old again but the the knowledge in your pip about all these different courses and and the different design is they were hanging out with each other and how their nuances overflowed into Pinehurst is is fascinating so from a high level situation Keith give us give us your take on on this week well you know down here right away the first thing you’re going to notice is that it is crispy as heck um you know I I know everyone’s talking about Windam Clark coming in and saying you know right away that he thought the greens were borderline or whatever um I think at this point we’ve learned to take some of what Windam Clark says you know with a grain of salt I mean he only kind of opens up his mouth to change feet so at the same time having walked around and looked and everything um the place is firm and fast and I mean these are the Sand Hills even if it has rained in the last couple weeks um the water filters very quickly so um what we expect this to be is exactly what we’re getting ourselves into early in the week and uh I know we’ll get into a lot of different points uh about the players and everything so if I just stick to the golf course uh you know one of the big things that everyone keeps talking about is came out of the the one podcast I forget who said it but they’ve done a lot more plantings around the landing areas of wire grass weed grass all sorts of grass I mean I guess grass is legal down here in North Carolina I don’t know they have it everywhere but like the point being is that um you’re gonna have to be a total driver of the golf ball and even though the fairways are 35 to 40 yards wide they’re doing that on purpose because they can’t stop the ball from rolling if it’s moving side to side as well as it’s moving forward so you’re definitely going to want to incorporate something like that certainly approach play with a long iron is is really something you know we talked a lot about many of these things going into Valhalla there wasn’t much they could do at Valhalla everyone was very critical of that and I actually thought it was a great Championship it was super wet out there I mean it was the ground was so soft underf fooot and it was soft everywhere whether it was in the long grass to Short Grass the greens and everything so I mean they’re not dealing with the same type of soil out there so I I think they had a good Championship but this one’s definitely going to be defended by par there’s no doubt about that and I and I think a lot of it is going to be on edge and um you know as much as Spencer with all due respect who he knows I love him right A lot of times us opens aren’t my favorite you know when it comes down to um a major championship test because I don’t always feel like the best golfer wins you know the one that was playing the best that week the three of us if we walked away from Valhalla I’m sure we would have all agreed that the three guys that were at the top of the leaderboard were the guys that were playing the best that week right would we all agree to that right Bryson Victor and and obviously Xander you know that those guys were really really good that week um I I feel there’s just going to be too much luck involved with what happens this week I’ll go back a couple weeks to Lancaster Country Club look what happened with the women’s US Open right the USGA is notorious for putting things on edge because they try to determine the championship by score rather than by letting the field just do their thing so hopefully Mike Juan and there and that leadership isn’t like Mike Davis was so many years ago when they fought for even part to be the winning score or maybe on the plus side I mean in my in my estimation like the cut at a at a professional event shouldn’t be plus eight I mean this is why the guys hated this event for so many years so hopefully they keep things under control this week and there’s no doubt that you’re going to need a tremendous amount of around the green skill I know Pat and I got into that the other night and we we got Deep In The Weeds on that but um to me I think that that’s the that’s really you know the magic pixie dust that you’re going to have to go with this week you’re going to have to be able to score from in and around these green complexes and you’re going to be able to do it with all with need to do with all sorts of crazy good shots you know you’re going to be chipping all the time from below the surface so the only way you get the ball to stop is with spin which means you have to be very confident where your low point is at the bottom and you got to hit those like little skitters in there those like one two you know those shots and those are hard to do and like on the other side there’s like a treacherous bunker or something so I I really look forward to that so I love that about what the venue is going to do this week I just hope that we keep it all under control I think we’ll be okay I hope so and if not you know what Carnage is fun Keith so Spencer how have you managed your model to kind of adapt with the Carnage and you know deal with the golf course that’s not necessarily a typical Us open venue I mean I guess the one thing that I would agree with with what Keith just said is that we have had over the course of time and not every single year but there have been unfair iterations of the US Open where greens have become severely baked out where there’s become an advantage for players that are going off at a certain time and that’s what I would like to avoid here when you look at a Donald Ross venue that you’re going to get for the US Open Ross is always known for these diabolically unique around the green complexes it’s going to be very different than the standard expectation that you’re going to get on the PGA tour weekly it’s going to be no different you have these turtle shell greens they have the propensity to repel shots entirely off the surface Keith was talking about this like it can roll 30 yards away from the hole it can roll into traps it can roll into these tight lies all of that add adds this headache of the construction and I think when you add that to where the approach shots are going to come from because we do have an increased expectation that’s going to just happen over and over again from 175 plus yards you get a very challenging course here because balls are going to have have a hard time holding the surface on the second shot and it’s going to force players into these really unique outlooks we’ve already heard it mentioned by golfers throughout this week there are players that are way off the surface that are trying to Chip and Putt with their three Woods to get back on to the greens like there’s a very unique skill set that comes into play for venues like this so a lot of that puts me into this direction and maybe this is where I got a little bit different than most people is I weigh Strokes gained approach less than usual that doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s this massive discrepancy that’s going to come into play really more so it’s a couple percent less and then it’s going to add this massive increase in all of these critical areas where I’m looking at so I want to see how somebody performs from 175 plus yards I want to see how that merges with somebody’s around the green game I think it’s important potentially for green complexes like this look at Apex how high as a player flying it into these green complexes all of those things had a lot more to do with my Approach metrics than normal it’s not some rudimentary simplified outlook here it really took three or four things it merged them all together over and over again and it tried to figure out who were the best players that were going to perform from those areas and then when you look at the total driving because it’s so fast and firm there are so many different areas where you can get into problems like Keith talked about you can go into the wire grass there’s these gorse bushes yeah combination of accuracy and distance are going to be very important here and a US Open for me and I think this is what makes me love a US Open it’s I always feel like the player and whether this is fair or not fair in a lot of these answers it’s the player who hits it the longest and the straightest off the te is usually the one for the week that finds the most Advantage anytime I run or relooked at my model from a lot of these us opens so it’s going to take a complete allaround test here I don’t think it’s simplified into any one specific nature of your game but all of those things accentuated together does make this you know every single part of your game is going to have to work or there’s big numbers out there to be found and there are golfers that are going to implode there are and I’ll let you jump in here shortly Keith because the hard part about this week and the model like Yan is asking in the chat here is we this is a really I know we try to keep it quick but now this is so fascinating to me because Ian’s asking about knocking it to 35t ke we know that guys have hit wedges six feet by and it just rolls a trickles off we’ve seen Martin kimer um Michael Campbell and old pay they’ve puted their balls off the putting green and won this tournament so winners have puted their ball off the green and still won so you have to have mental fortitude to shout out Paul ainger and then also make sure that you can really keep your short game under control this is the most I’ve ever waited short game I’m at 45% and then when it comes to approach play I’m looking for good shot percentage I’m looking for guys that can hit it to a very short Circle small circle because we have certain areas on these turtle shell greens that you have to hit if you miss them you screwed but at the same time there’s certain greens that have very safe areas kind of like that par three we saw last week where Scotty kind of laid up and got up and down but Keith what what do you think from an approach standpoint are you looking for aggression are you looking for passiveness is it a mixture of both is that what makes us so fun this week I honestly if I was creating you know a model and we could put any stat that you wanted in there real or imaginative game you know Strokes Strokes gained game plan would be the number one and this is why Scotty has such a huge Advantage it’s just that you know he he wins at a gusta because he starts like with you know with a five shot lead I mean he’s just so cerebral about way he goes around the golf course and then he’s actually able to pull off how how smart his plan is which is interesting I mean the genius of Ross like people are they they’ll watch it this week and they still won’t get it you have to play it a bunch to really understand it I spent 23 years as a as a club professional at different clubs up and down the Eastern Seaboard and almost half of those were spent at Donald Ross golf courses so I spent 11 years at two different Donald Ross golf courses so like the genius of him is that he is able to preserve par and what I mean by that is that it makes it really hard to make birdie but he makes it really easy to make Bogey and you’re gonna see a ton of that this week and some of those will be so much on edge that those Bogies might turn into double Bogies because those guys will force the issue but to really answer your question Byron you cannot be aggressive when you’re going after some of these locations because the people on the grounds there will know exactly where to put the pins you know one of the characteristic things you’re going to hear all these crazy like um you know buzzwords you know like we’re all playing like US Open Bingo and everything like last year it was baranka you know and we’ve already said Wire Grass a bunch of times but another one is switchbacks you know we’ve got 10 fader shots off the te for a right-handed player and then we’ve got four you know right to left shots or Draw favored type t- shots right well almost all the time when you hit a fade t- shot Ross is going to ask you to bring the ball back the other way on approach that’s the way he’s going to sit the green on the angle and then he’s also going to only leave you whole locations that are going to feature that again so at the end of the day like you have to be so good with your with the control of how you’re going to attack everything I mean yeah because like Bryson chips with a six iron like I think that that’s a problem here like it is an Augusta National for him but I also think it’s a problem that like he tends to not stick to game plans you know like any guy that’s like that like a Victor somebody that’s like super aggressive that that just Fires at pins all the time they’re gonna need to know where the ebre is and I and I don’t feel like those guys do and and you know I think that having that guy and I’m not going to call them a plotter or anything but like Martin kimer is the archetype for this you know like he was like totally this like detail oriented like OCD I’m gonna put it there I’m gonna put it there like chess like player just like Scotty Scotty just does it more of in a modern sense with more power so you really have to be practical about how you approach all this thing the the old adage holds true right Spencer you can’t win it on Thursday but you could lose this thing on Thursday I I want to add one thing very quickly before we move on and I’ll I’ll pose a question to both of you because it’s it’s an interesting conversation that we’re having here and it’s something that I ran in my model so when I took Baseline projections of every single player and I took their Baseline approach metrics when you would throw them on any course and then when you specifically just looked for venues where you needed to be a little bit more conservative so this is what Keith is talking about is not attacking every single Green in every single pin here and knowing where you can miss above anything else when you do end up hitting a bad shot I don’t want to go through all these names we’ll be here all day having this conversation but I have the top five here of my model when I ran that would either of you two like to guess the names the top couple that landed in this section so this would be players this would be players that increase their Baseline projection when given a course where they need to be more conservative Scotty these yeah Scotty zotus I’ll say zalatoris zalatoris is fifth yeah Victor uh Victor is up there also the top couple I’ll give you them number one is Cameron Smith and these are not necessarily players that I I am betting or love this week I just think this is an interesting return above anything else number two was Xander Schley the the problem with Scotty that comes into play is Scotty is so good every Every Which Way with it that he doesn’t necessarily increase his Baseline that he’s just kind of flat across the board but very good production number one in my model when looking in that area just not necessarily going to get that massive increase there uh theola zalatoris H that would what rounds out the top five of my model there I like that it makes a lot of sense you know and I think I think a lot of those guys as well outside of zal are very good scramblers you think maybe you know being able to get having confidence in your ability to kind of potentially feel like you can try and hit the shot that the the course is demanding from you knowing that if you don’t put it off you can still get up and down regardless which I think is going to play a big role this week so wait a second they’re not all good scramblers they’re all good Putters H thala Smith they’re all really good Putters so they know they could hit conservative shots into greens and give themselves 30f Footers and that they’re that at worst they’re always going to tput right they don’t force the issue because they’re worried about what they’re going to do with the putter right dalal’s been notorious this year as a bad Scrambler right I mean obviously cam Smith’s world class at everything but I think it’s more along the lines of they can allow themselves to be conservative hitting into greens because they make so many putts like in the 20 to 30 foot rage yeah it’s the conversation Byron that you and I have had on this show with Xander Schley specifically when you give him these green complexes where he cannot attack and and and he can use some of that overall safety that comes into his mix there these are the courses where he seems to find his best success so I know there’s a lot of people in this space that have differing opinions on Xander this week I really like Xander for this tournament like I don’t see this hangover that’s going to come into play that I I know that’s been out there in the space quite frequently we’ll chat about that just shortly because I have a top 10 and a top 20 in all four majors for Xander that I’m really curious to chat about to you guys so we’ll get there shortly but Keith As We dive into our rankings over here for the US Open just tell the people that we we’ve got the Golf Digest rankings out there for every single golfer in the field some might be grouped together some as we get closer to the top of the board kind of finding their own own write up but just touch to people about what’s going on in the golf digs aticle there for us so for each major I’m tasked with the opportunity to rank everyone from 1 to 156 so full disclosure at the time that I create the rankings the USGA in full USGA Splendor um only had 151 people included well I assumed Robert McIntyre gets one of those six spots but then as the weekend broke down like Adam Scott and everything but really it was the top 150 that were in at that time that I put in my rankings but I you know none of those guys were going to break the top 10 that were getting in as the last six they were published this morning at 7: a.m you just type in US Open Power Rankings and that’s the first thing that’s going to pop up on Google that’s the beauty of Golf Digest so um you have a PGA professional that is ranking the players based upon basically the architecture the Donald rosess of this place the Agronomy the changes to that um and everything else that you could consider even down to the fact that you know I know I’m going to have a conversation with you guys and I actually took that into consideration um and what we might develop as part of you know this whole show this evening because I knew we were going to go over it again I didn’t know that last time but this time I came prepared well Keith let us know why is one of the most impessive major athletes of our era ranked number 10 for you I think that uh Brooks Kea could have been a lot higher except for his performances this year so that gave me pause and that you know as we’ll go through this um I don’t even have a guy like John ROM in the top 10 anymore but you know Brooks he was what 45th there at at Augusta then he came back and he apologized to his team and he said he was going to come back stronger and better and and you know maybe a lot of people argue that Valhalla wasn’t a good fit for Brooks but at the end of the day I mean the PGA Championship should be Brooks’s wheelhouse every year no matter where they put the golf course um a very underrated game player obviously he’s shown that he can play Pinehurst uh very well he’s won a US Open at a place like shinok he is good at other comp courses um whether that be concession if you want to use that as a comp just because you’re thinking about Agronomy if you want to think about the Agronomy where they have the hude St Jude strike that you know I love the Hey Jude um and you know so I I gave him the tenth spot because basically this should be in his wheelhouse and um he hasn’t really proved that he should be there so it’s it’s it’s it’s a bit belief and uh you know as it comes with Liv you know hey it’s great that he shot Seven under on Sunday in Houston but we do need a little bit more and um tenth is the best I could do for it I I I can see that Keith you know there’s it’s going to be difficult to rank Brooks this week because of he’s got such a wide range of outcomes right so Spencer you’ve got Tommy Fleetwood matched up with the odds board at number 10 I I think this is one of those discussions that we have almost every week when it comes to Tommy Fleetwood and I guess it plays a little bit differently from a DFS perspective than anything this belief of his lack of win Equity hurts him so much in a lot of these positions and it’s interesting because look at the odds board here like he’s the 10th player he’s 10th in my model he actually climbs to eighth overall for upside I didn’t end up punching the outright ticket on Tommy Fleetwood because I feel like I’ve been down this path one too many times with him and I decide to take a very aggressive approach at the top like it’s about as aggressive as I’ve ever gotten on a card where I don’t have Scotty Sheffer which is the interesting answer to that but I do have two players that are going to be sub20 to one that I’m building the majority of my card around but if I wasn’t so heavy with that route that I took I really like Tommy Fleetwood here from a statistical perspective if we want to talk talk about players that increase their Baseline with their approach when you need to be safer Tommy is that next name that would have fit that bill he was sixth overall for me so uh inside of the top 30 and pretty much any value that I was trying to put a critical weight to this week I am curious to see where the ownership lands because we’ve gotten into a spot with him it feels like in back-to-back tournaments where the first week he was very highly owned and I think the general public thought he dis appointed there still a fine finish and then last week we got into a position where everybody thought he was overpriced he was one of my favorite plays I don’t know if he necessarily warranted the price tag that we got with the finish that he ended up providing with the 20th it was a very neutral finish for him but you know this lack of perceived win Equity or upside from the general public is putting us in an interesting position I’m curious to see where the ownership lands I think at 8500 we don’t necessarily need all that owners ship this time which is one of the reasons why I think Fleetwood is probably one of these best values you can find on the board and at 8,500 here if we’re talking specifically for DraftKings I’m gonna have a lot of exposure for him in DFS he’s been crushing at Spence he’s in this field he’s the third best guy in top 10 return for your bets there so I think that’s why you seeing this outright number so short for or 35 to1 for Tommy seems relatively short in a field that has Scotty shef and Brooks so the the fact that he’s such a consistently um Regular finisher in the top of the board but not like really contending it’s a it’s a situation that’s really just difficult to bet the guy because the outright number sucks but they’ve respected his placement Market because of of his consistency so yeah we are Tommy fatwood top 10 guy flirting with top 10 pretty much perennially you know in his career so I have for myself a certain somebody I just completely shut down yeah go ahead real quick Byron Spencer I have one question for you if I told you that 15 of the last 19 US Open winners was a first-time major winner you’d feel pretty comfortable going with Tommy Fleetwood wouldn’t you you would probably be one of the top guys on the list and and I do think that like you look at us oin and you’re talking about that with the firsttime winners that have seemed to crack through and you know look at one of his compatriots in Matthew Fitzpatrick like yeah there there’s been so many golfers over the course of time that are thought of as players who cannot win look at Xander at the PGA Championship I know Xander had more success on the PGA tour but he didn’t have that high-end success of actually winning some of these major championships I said this after Xander one you’re viewed as a golfer who cannot win until you change the narrative and once you get that one Victory the floodgates can open so um this is a really nice spot for would like this is about as good of an opportunity in quite a long time according to my model that he actually has to win one of these tournaments agreed I could not agree with you more Spencer this is a very unique opportunity for a lot of guys that are looking to get a US Open on their resume to get it because when you go to Whistling Straits when you go to all of these courses oakill like when you just have to pound driver a 310 in the air and gou a 79 out that eliminates a large chunk on the field this week I’m so excited because anyone can show up it’s going to be hard for anyone to show up but the possibility is there this golf course brings the field together which is kind of why I’m not super scared about Scotty this week although this golf course is super super tailored to his skill set and I know that’s a thing you never want to say on the internet and life is life but I had to pop in cam Smith for my number 10 I just I haven’t bet him hardly this year I think I bet him at like 70 to1 at the PJ just because of the number but I’m a cam Smith Homer and he’s been my guy that I’ve I’ve I’ve hit every single cam Smith win on the PJ T’s B like when he’s won I’ve had him and maybe it’s because I bet him a lot but also the best part about cam Smith is you can get him at 40 to1 so he’s not even your lead guy on your card and this guy’s a US I mean a an Open championship winner and he can make putts and chip when I was watching like Kevin NW and and Michael Campbell you know Michael Campbell’s from New Zealand but that’s also pretty much the same continent called australasia you know and that’s where Cam Smith is from you know so we’re going to see a sandbell correlation here Keith right we got a bit of sand belty stuff and big time Big Time and if you are looking for somebody cams driver obviously G to be a massive issue but if you’re looking for someone that can miraculously chip and put their way to another another major he’s a major winner and this guy can do it so I’m I’m so excited to see how he handles this golf course this week so um yeah let’s start into number number nine for the odds board is John Ram which is interesting I’m not entirely sure how I feel about that but Keith you’ve got L for your number nine guy can can I ask one question before we move on Keith where did you have John Ramen your model I have him at 11th now full disclosure um I had to do the rankings before he pulled out of Liv so um he would still be in the my top 20 to be honest to be completely transparent but um I I have him at 11th because basically he just hasn’t shown up this year but he’s still John Rob and um you have to be worried about that it’s the same reason he’s 2800 um is that the liability that if you threw John Rah at a number like 40 the amount of people that would just smash that with with just Absol like with obnoxious amounts of money just because it’s John Rah I mean I’m sure he people hammered it at Valhalla when he got the 20 right I mean a year before that he was the betting favorite at the PGA so like they have to play that liability game that that we don’t have to play so that’s why that number is always a little bit lower but I had him at 11 yeah and Spence to kind of answer your question there I had to I had to jack a maniac override big time he’s his major track record and pedigree is incredible like if I just left the model the way it is he’s sitting inside the top five because this guy’s been a a major Menace you know like he’s got two on his card already and this guy’s got the power and the long iron ability and the short game touch to take take care of any golf course so he’s injured he’s hurt he’s not playing Great Golf there’s a lot going on his wife’s pregnant with a third kid there’s just it’s just his life is chaos you know he’s his Saturn is missing its ring and it’s just spinning I kicked a tent today in my garage and a whole bunch of Like Moths and you know those like like crawly things came flying out of the tent in my garage that’s like what John Ram is to me at this point you know like is this awesome tent that can provide you the shelter of Bing top 10 and an amazing consistency Mages but now when when it’s folded up on live we’ve got insects and all sorts of crap hiding in the midst there and and this is why he’s 28 to1 at a US Open so tough scenes F ROM this week so Keith talk to us about LV at number nine he looked really good at Memorial you can say what you want about a partially torn meniscus but he looked really good at Memorial and you can’t say that the whole thing I mean look what he did at Augusta obviously he can game plan the heck out of somewhere um he’s nine and not lower because the short game’s not better that’s basically what it comes down to but ultimate driving long iron play um jez I mean there was so many great little chip shots and scoring shots that he hit on driveable par fours or the par fives there at um C Island that were yeah they they were nice tight lies and he just hit them so well um very creative player for somebody that kind of hits it like a robot so I thought he looked great this weekend um he was ninth just because there’s this health issue but otherwise I mean it’s full steam ahead with him yeah we’ve got two guys with health issues right at the top of the board yes Spencer I’m going into your number nine ranking hit me with Victor havland it’s an interesting case with Victor hland here if we look at Valhalla this was a 50 to1 golfer who I had an out ticket on who overachieved from what he had been producing leading up to that tournament and now all of a sudden you get a $9,800 price tag you get a golfer that is sub6 to one pretty much everywhere that you’re looking at this week I guess my concerns would be and and this is for me having a golfer in the top 10 so it’s not to say that I don’t like Victor hin I guess my biggest concern would come down to the price tag for DraftKings and the price in the outright mark Market are really not conducive anymore for the amount of popularity that he’s going to probably still bring for DFS contest he’s 134th for me in Strokes gain around the green when you put him on these fast green complexes you know we can maybe talk about his ability to putt from off the surface and some of that three putt percentages actually will make him a little bit better in those spots but to me this is one of those golfers to where he’s ninth he has negative leverage for upside and I tend to think that unfortunately in some of these situations you get priced out of the market it’s kind of what Keith was talking about with ROM where if you make ROM 40 to one everybody wants to go punch that ticket and if you make Victor hin 40 to1 here he’s going to be the most bet player on the board Sports books are masking against that potential or possibility coming into play and a lot of times when a market overc cors itself which is where I kind of think we are right now that player is taken out of the player pool from me from actually having realistic potential to back them in any Market unless you gave me a matchup against him against somebody but even if you look at his matchups early in the week he’s against morawa he’s against Ober he’s against all these players that are gonna also be in the top 10 on my model and I lean towards the answer that he’s probably my least preferred of the group even though a lot of those names and you’re going to see them all pop up for me in the next little bit they’re all very close to one another yeah these guys are all very close and this is the fun part about doing this ranking part of the show is is you you’re splitting hairs you know and and trying to find an edge here and there based off of of a Nuance you know like RAR at the end of the day it’s it’s all Nuance based and I was listening to Jeff Olie about his breakdown about um Pinehurst number two and he mentioned that on the PJ T professionals can really just they they’re almost not scared to shorts side themselves when the rough is thick in these kind of major territories because it’s easier to get up and down when you’ve you’ve shortsighted yourself close to the flag out of thick Ruff versus having to chip super super far right because a lot of the time your ball will just be one or two feet over the green and you’re just hacking it out the cabbage and just letting it trickle down to the green this week it’s totally different and although Victor havin Spencer has gained the 28th most Strokes around the Green in Majors it does make me feel like it’s because of the thick grass that he’s really thrived in those environments and then you think about the Open Championship where he almost you know kind of carried BR down with him in that final grouping there you know at a venue that’s in my mind I’ve been thinking about St Andrews and I know you mentioned this on on the show with Pat Keith and it was quite funny because I I purposely waited to watch it because I wanted to generate my own like opinion about this venue and I thought man St Andrews is a very similar kind of a test by having to get up and down for birdie versus bogy or par right because these guys were driving greens and and hitting par fives in two and and just really really kind of having to rely on that short game to make birdies versus Parts you know like so it’s an interesting concept just think of it like I put you anywhere on the golf course get it in in the least amount of Strokes right so you know pars are relevant and you know him finishing fourth there um you know the the vict thing is is interesting because he it’s it’s almost for me um and he he’s my next go around so I’ll just add to that real quickly and then when we get to we get to him but like it it’s with Victor it’s like it’s like A Tale of Two Cities you know I I was talking about it last week when I was talking about Jordan and an on the Range but you know little Charles Dickens it’s the best of times it was the worst of times well the Masters he missed the cut shoot 81 and the next thing you know he’s contending at Valhalla and and that’s typical Victor you know he’s got wonderful comps and a third at the players and he’s got a fourth at St Andrews but then you know we’re all a little worried about what can happen this week when he’s you know just given this short grass all week and he’s gonna be super aggressive firing at these Turtle Back greens yep and but the thing is I’m I’m almost willing to so in DFS I’ll be going to him because I think he’s gonna I think people will be like we’ve we’ve had had this we had Max in the in the chat just say you know the overblowing popularity of him like sucking it up last week tough scenes and then the short grass like sweet spot says I think I think the ownership on Victor could potentially see a dip we also seeing it reflected in his price you know I was interested in him this week but at 16 at 18 you know like I’d rather go to some other guys that we can chat about here shortly so yeah yeah that was that was tough sell for me on on Vic at that price but I’m still kind of bullish on his ability um Bryson kind of jumps in at nine for me I’m not overly thrilled about this I just feel like he is a major Contender I don’t think this is the ideal venue for him when I think about Bryson winning golf tournaments I think about Dick Ruff and then and I think he’s his Edge is lost when there’s less grass so that’s basically my quick summary on Bryson so quick take there let’s dive into the number eight here for ludvig you already mentioned Victor hland as your number eight guy there Keith Spence has got ludvig we’ve I never really did I get your opinion on Spence on l no and I I’ll keep it very short because I think Keith what he said is kind of where I would double down with it if he was healthy and maybe we had a little bit more on the around the green game this was an enticing price the the problem that we run into though is there’s an injury that’s coming into play I’m speaking specifically outright betting here but there’s an injury that’s coming into play and you’re not getting a baked up number that’s allowing that injury to like take a chance with it so he’s priced out in the outright Market but this is a nice spot for him he looked very good last week oh I can see sorry go ahead Keith I mean I was there and I know what looks good and it looked good it looked good and and the most frustrating thing about ludvig is he’s a really good putter you know like he can make long putts and His short game sucks but he’s going to be making those pass saves like crazy this week and I think I think we’re going to see it and if these greens are rolling as true as they do like at s Grass at at Waste Management you know I think we’re going to really see tons and tons of putts get hold this week and it’s going to be it’s going to add variability to the whole situation because the more putts that get made you know the less predictable golf can be right so situations like that make it betting difficult just to touch on that real quick Byron that was like one of two two points that I thought caught Pat’s attention the most when when he just kept rapid firing like really thoughtful questions for me about the golf course and it’s like everyone looks at those turtleback greens and they’re 6,500 square feet on average and like a third of those things they’re basically unusable because they just fall off on the sides it’s like a dolly clock painting you know they’re just like melting right and then but you can’t make the center of those things that crazy because then there would be no place for the cup right they would be uncup right so the greens themselves you can actually putt those things go look at those leaderboards they’re they are littered with great Putters you can make putts if you get it on the green and and that’s the key here and that’s why some of the guys in my list I’ve featured because like I want some good Putters on this on my squad for you know for to try to win this thing because I think you can make putts he can and we know that you need to make putts right ask Martin kimer about it all so Spencer we’ve got some fun stuff going on yeah I’m going to Rattle off one more guy here real quick Willie Z in my opinion I just have to play this guy in a major and and he was second or third in my model before I to jump in backwards he’s carrying a lot of the the prior distance before the surgery along with him there so I’ve I’ve kind of understood this but I was bullish on him going into the PJ championship and as Spencer mentioned to me it’s not a great situation like the way the scoring unfolded there didn’t work out if you got Willie Z trying to win a tournament at maybe minus five this week that’s when I want him and I’m not betting him to win this thing but I’ll be playing him in DFS potentially if if some numbers go Rogue on a top five I’ll I’ll pounce on that this guy is a major guy I feel like a venue like this maybe suits his new game a little bit better than the old one we had and I know neither of you had Willie Z in your top 10 and don’t really have too much more to say about him he has Brookie sitting number seven at 22 to1 we’ll go to ke’s number seven guy and it’s Cameron Smith so touch us up on cam Smith and then get us to Spencer there ke I am very high on cam Smith this week so much so that I’ve been growing my hair out in the back I mean this guy is the perfect fit for this place all right players champ of course St Andrews um when it comes to getting the ball up and down and and showing short game Savvy just like getting the ball on the least number of of shots that is Cam Smith and that’s what you’re going to have to do this week and and everyone’s gonna talk about oh you know Keith off the tea there’s gonna be Pro everyone’s gonna have problems right but the the one guy that you have the most faith in on any list anywhere is this guy to solve problems when they come up especially in a major championship I mean this guy’s a big game hunter he I mean we could talk about all these different parallels but he grew up on the sand belt I mean this is the same sort of texture the guy can obviously play on this type of Bermuda grass so it it’s just for me I think that this is one of those guys I wrote about him this morning when the odds dropped he was at plus 4500 I thought that there was great value there um he’s a guy that I’m definitely going to bet outright and uh I’m gonna enjoy every minute of those 72 holes that he plays because at the end of the day someone’s gonna need to stare down the man and this guy can stare people down he is not afraid and we need to know that right godamn Keith you got me ramped up man I’m I love it he does not hesitate like that back nine at the open was scintillating the this year in 2024 the top 25 Strokes gained there’s three guys that find themselves on that list twice hii manui and sorry Strokes gained around the green which is very important this week um the top 25 guys this year hii mini and cam Smith cam Smith has only got eight rounds of golf and he finds himself gaining three Strokes twice in those eight rounds in the two majors so you know like that’s ludicrous in my opinion so tons and tons of fans um with Cam Smith there and bear in mind he lost five Strokes off the teer at the players and still won that tournament so fun stuff there he’s a unicorn Spencer Kari think about when he think about when he won that players that was the crazy with all the weather and all the delays and all the wild stuff that was going on and he still got it done right think about you want to talk about patience or being able to see a golf course and understand how to score how about on the 71st hole when he won the Open Championship how he he went around the bunker and then made the 10-footer right you know what kind of patience it takes to do that what kind of resolve what kind of self-belief you have to have in your putter in order to make that play with the tournament on the line I mean this guy is he’s got serious serious stones and you need that against Scotty man it’s tough I love because we just this show is going to go long I’m not going to even try and speed it up that much more when when cam was going toe-to-toe with John Ram when cam was going toe-to-toe with with Rory at the open you know like this guy does not back down he’s so much fun to watch so you know that’s my favorite part about these Mages you know what I have in both of those two tournaments that you’re talking about whether it’s the open championship of the players where Cam Smith won is I had the entire leaderboard around cam Smith but did not have Cam Smith as a ticket so I I don’t have these glowing reviews like you guys do with it uh I have not had this success at the end of the day but uh I certainly understand why both of you guys like him this week but Spencer he’s not a model darling no at the end of the day you know no no no but Spencer Spencer did bring him up earlier when he talked about conservative approach players yeah did I hear that correctly who was number one on that list exactly all right and don’t for again for people that weren’t listening the other night to Pat right why is TPC Saw Grass such a huge comp course or or Heritage for that matter Harbor toown why are they both huge comp courses for what we’re going to see this week and how these guys are going to game plan their way around Piner number two Pete Dy served at Fort Bragg in North Carolina in the 40s and he used to take his commanding supervising officer down there and they used to go play golf and he studied that place when it was in its Heyday right before anyone had touched it when it was still like it is now the way that they were they renewed it to right back there in 2010 there’s so many influences yes Pete Dy does it with bulkheads and all sorts of weird different things right but it is the same thing that you’re looking at this week right the way that he puts you on edge in the way that you’re you’re constantly Hitting off uneven lies the switchbacks and all of these different actors that Ross was such a genius at doing D copied all that so did Corin kencha so did Gil Hans I mean that’s why all these comps come from all these guys dope you know I mean like all these guys they they all were influenced by what Ross did he did over 400 different courses and none of them are the same you mean to tell me that like Oak Hill is is a comp for Piner number two and you’re going to hear that this week but they’re not but they’re the same guy he was so good at using the land and then making it work for what it is and this was just so close to when he came over from dorno that the influences from over there in Scotland you have to see them in the ground game this is not aerial architecture this is you get the ball on the ground and who’s better at doing that some of these guys that we’re listing yeah and Spence Kari cow short game and and putting and chipping now it used to be very good in majors and now it’s good in non- majes too so hit me with your Colin marawa and why he’s number seven I think me and Keith will be coming up with our guy shortly I I I think you can make a real big argument that I am a little bit too low on Colin morawa with this ranking and the reason why he got pushed lower in my sheet just stemm from this price reduction that we’ve seen from him of where you know he is now the fourth or the fifth favorite at pretty much every single book that you’re looking at I tend to think that he’s probably the safest golfer on the board in the 10 if you remove the players from $10,000 and up I would say moraca is probably the safest name beneath that if I am looking for a made cut and a potential top 20 finish some of the upside numbers pushed me in a different direction just because I thought this price got overly reduced from what we did last week but um really really nice course fit for him where there’s it’s challenging to say anything bad about him outside of what his outright number is and why he’s so intriguing though on DraftKings is we got a price tag that does not correlate directly with that outright number like this is more of the true number of where it opened up before morawa ended up almost winning the memorial last week so really like him for DFS I think he’s going to be very popular he’s goingon to be a staple of any single cash game lineup that I make I have more concerns in the outright price just because I think that we have lost a lot of the value from where this numberers moved all right I’mma knock my guy out you as well while we talking about him I’ve bet Mari cow 20 to1 at B 365 with ties each way three places because I think Colin’s going to finish second in this tournament again you know like so if if he finishes second I’ll get my eway but if he if he doesn’t and somehow wins this thing because there’s hardly going to ever be another major where accuracy of the te can really help him gain that distance that he lacks and then the same time just leaning into that short game around the green like this is one of the like this is ausa esque ausa austa when it comes to short game like capabilities and I think you know he’s just showing it so much right now so if Scotty stumbles I think Colin can do something this week I’m G take a gamble on the guy hit me with your guy there Spence what’s what’s his situation I just I just wanted to say very quickly with Colin that the 20 to one number that you talked about is a lot different than the 14s and the 16s that we have in the space right now at 20 this is a different conversation to be had it’s it’s much closer to what I think is actually accurate for that price and a lot of that movement that we’ve seen would make me believe that that is not just Square money that’s hitting there’s some sharp money that’s hitting that too big favorite in every single matchup I guess I’m more so speaking of this movement that’s been pushed into the 14 to one range now not necessarily the 20s that you’re talking about yeah and and like I said that 20 is only available because they had me locked in for the top three you know so I’m only getting like 41 on the top three really but Colin’s been doing this stuff man so at that price I was called to go because why cam Smith gives me some space on the rest of the card right so it’s a really exciting you know that’s my favorite part about cam is the fact that he’s hardly ever your number one ace you know so it’s it’s really fascinating to see how how your card can unfold with that I’m curious to see if Colin can win a major in a in a non-co environment too because those two Mages not a lot of people kind of weighing down on him right he um I mean I’m high on Colin for all the reasons you guys said and and a whole lot more the one thing we could be critical or we used to be critical of Colin for over his last five starts he’s gained two and a half on average around the green and 2.1 with the Potter I mean like those are the two things he couldn’t do and he was winning majors and you know um every year when we go to the players he is you know at the top of the conversation board is someone that should win there I mean it just his game suits this so um I mean you could pop him up on the board where I have him but uh it’s it’s for me he is the he is the one guy I mean I’ll just close with this third nth 16th fourth fourth second he is the only player that has finished in the top five in both Majors this year and that includes Scotty and that includes Xander he is a third and a fourth Colin morow he’s incredibly Majors he’s a major Savage and I’m just waiting for that upside to pull through so we’ll have to see what he can do it’s going to be fascinating but um I popped up Colin for you there Keith and it’s not even you it’s the odds board but um I’ll find him here shortly this is the fun part about making it all white because I don’t even know where it is either so let’s talk about your sixth guy in the meantime and move along from the uh this is going to be everyone’s model darling because he’s such a good around the green player is hideki’s rate is is he enough under the radar to show up like he did at Riviera or is he too chalky because if he’s too chalky you won’t get any good Hideki but if he’s not if he’s able to walk in and just do his thing then Hideki he could be legit this week I’m along with you there I’ve got a Dey on my outride card as well if you’re looking at approach play at venues so Sam Burns I was looking at his vpar putting splits with 20 rounds minimum I was looking what Strokes G category in the other areas is anyone better than Sam Burns putting at valpar the only person to have better Strokes gained than in Sam Burns pting at bpar is a Dei Matsuyama on Approach at us opens getting 1.8 Strokes on approach per round with 20 rounds minimum Sam Burns gaining 1.7 on the putting surfaces there at vbar so this is this is a deim matsuyama’s gravy train the around the green play is going to be so emphasized he’s incredible around the greens right now Keith incredible if I mean if we want to say if he’s too chalky or not and this is not meant as a shot Byron I don’t think you’re on chalky people every single week but I know you’re not on Hideki Matsuyama ever so if you are on hii matuyama this week he’s going to be chalky and you see that with the early ownership right now like I will run this again on Tuesday we will get a better indication for DFS he looks like outside of Scotty maybe Colin like those are going to be the top three owned guys most likely yeah yeah yeah because he’s he’s a he’s a model darling this week great he’s he’s fifth in my model as Byron just brought up so I’m even a spot ahead of you Keith yeah yeah and if he gets super chalky I’m okay kind of leaving alone the reason I like him is because he’s got this Boomer bus potential this guy could easily lose more Strokes putting than he gains on approach this week you know like that’s easily hadim matsuyama’s blueprint so hopefully he can just chip in a million chips and and kind of keep himself safe there Spencer it’s chat mini this was this was was the rogue agent when I saw this I was like woo this is an interesting name that you’re showing up in the top 10 at number six even that’s one of the things that I talk about with my model is if you compare where my model ranks are compared to the odds board you more or less have everybody within a spot or two of where they should be maybe a couple spots outside of that in one direction or the other minwoo was the one who broke my model this week and you think about him on tight lies he checks all the boxes there he’s fifth for me in Long iron play plus around the green performance any of the weighted proximity numbers from 175 plus yards he’s third and oh yeah if you want to look at the weighted total driving of what my model viewed him as he’s also the number three golfer there so you’re going to need a little bit more from him with his Putter and His short game than we’ve gotten in some of these situations recently but um if you want to look at any of the fast around the green stuff the hard scoring around the green stuff that pushed them from outside of the top 50 for me from a two-year Baseline around the green to 23rd overall and then if you want to look specifically at the Bermuda putting totals he also saw an increase there going from 65th in my model inside of the top 50 so really the two areas of his game that had the biggest red flags for me inside of my sheet had reasons to be optimistic for his coraly Trends on tracks that are similar so I’m going to G to have minwoo in so many different iterations of the market I bet him outright I have a head-to-head bet that I released over at R ball with him he’s going to be a placement bet for me I’m GNA try to take this advantage and be way over consensus on him when it comes to any of those things including here for DraftKings and DFS fifth at La I’ve got a yeah la exactly and this is the thing he’s chipping he’s he shows up on that that top end around the green number twice in the top 25 of the of the three guys that do it Spencer so I’m right there with you I’ve got a bet against Kenny Kim um mini versus Sam Burns and I feel very confident about that because now that you got your guy up here now that Sam Burns is going to another major s burs just does not have it in Majors just by the way he’s not in the rankings right now but he just doesn’t have it in Majors so I will be targeting him in a match up again along with Kenny’s match so um we’ll we’ll we might be eating butterfish before the show on the show who the heck knows I don’t know if you guys have heard that story go watch that episode somewhere else but Spencer quickly very quickly before we move on uh I would be curious where both of you guys have Sam Burns in your model just to add that point to it so I have Sam Burns 50th I have Sam Burns missing the cut no I’m just kidding he’s missed the cut Masters he’s one of a few guys that’s missed the who’s a name that missed a cut at the first two majors of the year yeah right that’s not a surprise though it’s a tough look it’s a tough look he’s got five PGA T wins not a single top 10 in a major yeah I got to scroll a while yeah that’s the thing it’s like I can’t even tell you Spencer Way’s rank because I don’t want to use up all my bandwidth on on the scrolling there so I mean it seems like we all have them outside the top 40 probably based off of this answer in all honesty 60th there but yeah it’s it’s not good and 60th is where the cut is this week surprise surprise there Mr Stuart so yeah um very very bullish onu there for you Spencer yeah to answer Max either yeah I know to answer Maxwell’s question I’ll let you answer it for your end Byron I brought up Keith’s article so I could help with this so minwoo is 59th for Keith and then I’ll let you tell everybody where minwoo is for you Byron yeah minwoo for me is going to be ranked 29th you know like the iron play is is just it’s always bad it’s not and it’s it’s always bad but that’s what you’re going to get with him but you’re always going to potentially have that seven strokes gained short game somehow you know like that’s just he’s a cam Smith Light you know basically so the thing is though where does he Excel he excels from 175 plus yards if he is going to find any success with the irons and he’s incredible on these like positional venues so he could be hitting like think about TPC s grass you know hit those sting a two three irons and just roast a two iron 280 290 yards around this venue you know I think I can seem potentially doing that I’m just my only question is does he ever hit approach shots from over 175 yards with what a good driver he is I don’t think he ever does the stats are off that’s fair stats are off I I think it’s a great grab he was fifth at Lac which is a good comp certainly for tight lies you know he shows up at Mages and us in PJ championships if you betting this guy top 30 he cashed out for me I think last week or last major again this guy just repeatedly finding himself inside the top 30 as well Sam Burns is watching him do that from the couch over the weekend Bryson Des Shambo he’s also right next to Victor 21 he’s he’s the fifth ranked guy on the odds board Keith you’ve got your fifth ranked guy as Bryson Des Shambo he’s the first time he’s showing up for us outside of mine you know if if not for his what sixth at the August National Golf Club I I would probably have him much higher or at least outside the top 10 but he showed me something there and um goly he was really impressive at Valhalla and I understand these are two totally different tests but you’re talking about a guy that’s done something that only a couple people have done in the history of golf and that’s when a US am when a US Open and when the individual NCA title right so like this guy’s got some serious Swagger when it comes to big events so you can make Arguments for him either way um I get really concerned in these types of situations where you have Bryson chipping with a six iron um but then again you know we see videos of tiger chipping with a four iron today right now it’s a six iron length with a sand wedge Loft for Bryon which is a lot different but still um I’m comfortable with Bryson there I’ll just I’ll leave it at that yeah I don’t I don’t know Spencer how do you feel about Bryson I think he’s interesting contrarian wise for DFS contests I’m probably not going to get to him anywhere else cuz I do worry about some of the short game stuff with him and his inability to chip as Keith was talking about but yeah I can’t imagine there’s going to be any ownership and at some point like if I look from a safety portion of my model he’s inside the top 10 he falls in the wrong direction elsewhere with it which is I guess where my concerns would be but it’s an interesting viewpoint because the odds board have him fifth he has really no ownership from what I can see early on and sometimes you get these positions where because he is perceived to be overpriced in the eyes of people maybe this changes over the next 24 hours like he could end up being very popular and that’s what happened a major ago with it where all of a sudden all the late money and all the late ownership came in on him and maybe that’s what goes down again but like the early numbers I see which really means nothing on the very first day I see him sub 10% right now yeah I’ll take him at that because I think he’s Boomer bust I think his spectrum is the widest of them all and I think that’s why we all so tentative with him if we went upside maybe maybe Bryson’s inside the top four top three you know like but overall you know he’s gonna get ding there I mean he’s he’s an incredible he’s he could go full kimer and just putt all week because he’s an incredible lag putter I mean he he is you know as many weaknesses as he has around the green if he could putt everywhere I you could see him just getting up and down all day because he is that good of a lag putter um you know eth at eighth at St Andrews a couple years ago and that’s what he did and people say oh you know they’ll get into the whole par argum well he drove all those greens and everything but still he he finished eighth that’s how he gets done yeah so Rory you like Rory you know like he drove the G exactly exactly love where we going there you know atus 10 at 10% less ownership I think you know you can you can take a gamble there I think that’s totally fine all right Rory maroy is number five for me I just think his life is in shambled right now the other four guys that are ahead of him seem to have it a bit more together and that’s saying something about Scotty Sheffer who just had a new kid and been arrested in the last six weeks so like you know tough scenes yeah so Rory at a venue that you have to be disciplined and and all of this we’re going to see Rory throwing three Woods at cameraman again this week so that’s that’s pretty much my Spiel I mean you got to respect him but Keith take on Rory um I mean it’s not a CBS week so you know anyway he’s got the long left Miss with the irons right now he he is Uber talented so he has to be in the top five because he is that generational style player but I have I have huge concerns if you start to go into these classically designed golf courses you don’t want to hit it short right don’t to hit it long left because that was the way that the game was played back then so Ross is going to have that tendency you start going long left with your long irons here like he’s been doing lately like he he did it Memorial right I mean those other places where he won those were very very comfortable situations for Rory as soon as things got uncomfortable right you know and I mean Us open TMZ could be there so watch out yeah he’s he’s got a lot of stuff going on like we said and and um trust me he’s got a lot of stuff going on spend so much I know Keith do you want to take another sip or do you want to say what’s on your mind no I got I’m going here go ahead Spen I know you’re gonna have a bit more of a glowing review of Rory than we both will I do but I I would like to ask Keith this question and I asked this uh when he came on the last time what do you think the winning score is going to be for this tournament o I’m gonna say like four to six range something in there um this is the problem with Rory if we’re trying if I am trying to personally poke holes into the profile here he has never won a golf tournament that’s been a single digit winning score that has been something that I have named a million times on these podcasts and it’s kind of an unbelievable stat and and I think one of the reasons for that if I want to give him the benefit of the doubt with that answer sir there have been a lot of tournaments where he’s won at like 12 underpar where the next closest person was three underpar if we look 10 years ago so yeah he’s one of those positions kind of like the Scotty thing of what he’s doing now that he had the potential to just go nuclear at any point I worry a little bit about the blowup potential I don’t think he’s good with course management we can talk about the the the lack of ability of him and his caddy to actually like I I I honestly think I would be better on his bag to give him pointers of if he would listen to me at least to not do certain things because Rory has the propensity to just do things that he shouldn’t be doing in moments and hitting shots to places that you cannot do at this course if you missed to the wrong place you are going to be dead and that’s I guess my concern that even if this looks good and I bet Rory to win this tournament and maybe this is just where I I have you know Byron I I can admit when I have problems like I might just have a problem with Rory that I can’t stop doing this every single major championship but if you make a mistake at any point it’s going to bite you and that would be my one concern is that even if this looks good for three days Rory on Sunday makes a mistake that he shouldn’t be making Spencer I have a question for you real quick right if we all agree that whoever this person is that we picked to win we know in our heart that they have to be able to beat Scotty right that Scotty is GNA be a part of this equation come Sunday afternoon correct yeah he’s he’s over for nine this year again Scotty I mean even when Scotty hasn’t won he hasn’t beat him 0 for nine so that gives me a lot of Paws now a Winter Market without if if Rory gets going like Rory could get going um like he went nuclear there at Quail Hollow which was very comfortable for him you know good CBS interview afterwards it was all good here would be my one hope to that Keith I guess that would be able to maybe different iate the spot from him from what we’ve seen recently so yes 0 for9 this season hasn’t beaten him in a tournament there are some negative marks and and I don’t expect Scotty to not be in contention he is number one in my model he should be number one in everybody’s model he is a legitimate person that if you want to say he’s three to one four to one anywhere in that range that price is not as far off as what you think it is like that’s a a realistic price for him he is over a stroke better than any person in this tournament in TAA green production in my two-year running model per round that’s an outlandish number my only thing that I could Point towards that I would have hoped for is that Rory’s putting and I think you can make that same answer for a couple of these guys near the top Scotty has a downturn on similar Bermuda green complexes historically that he moves in the wrong direction and and if we get one of those weeks from Scotty to where he doesn’t have to be terrible let’s just say he loses Two Strokes putting and it takes him out from winning the tournament Rory’s going to need to gain four five six Strokes with his putter but I do think that’s within the range of outcomes for him to potentially do here so uh I’m going to a metric that I never want to overly grade because I do think putting is such a boomer bust statistic at the end of the day but like outside of Xander and if you want to say Brooks at his very best when we saw him in some of these Majors there were not very many players at least on the highend variety that were better Putters for me inside of my model for this course than Rory would be so I guess the hope is is that Rory beats Scotty with the putter by five six seven strokes and that’s enough to overcome the deficit with the TAA green that Scotty’s gonna have on the entire field I think behind Bryson Rory is the next in Spectrum he can win this thing at any given moment but at the same time he’s going to be watching with with his boou on the couch maybe as well you know you never freaking know with him it’s always a lottery so it’s going to be a fascinating fascinating week Spencer you’ve got Brookie all the way down here in number four it’s slightly better than what significantly better than what Keith had him and slightly worse than what I have him but hit me with your Brooks take quick you know what’s funny Byron is I never played or liked Brooks when he was on the PGA tour and now all of a sudden since he’s left for live I find reasons to back him every weekend and maybe that just comes down to this bias that’s coming to play where all of these live golfers are not as highly owned as they used to be and that was one of the reasons why I never bought this big game narrative that came into play even after Brooks did it time and time again and would demolish some of these really good builds that I’d put together because I’d full fade him in these spots where he’d win the tournament we’re finally now starting to get reduced ownership with Brooks and any of the major championship stuff when we look at Strokes gain toal that you’re running Byron will love him I have 10% in my model for that so it’s not zero that did boost him a little bit but pretty much across the board inside of the top 20 of almost every single main category that I looked at and then some of those really highend marks are what pushed him here at a fource so he was fourth overall he was fourth for upside he was fourth for safety I like Brooks for DFS I’m probably not going to get there from an outright number probably more of that reason that Keith has Ted talked about just that we haven’t seen it so far this year and that worries me ever so slightly but I I I think the ownership is low enough for DFS that I can take a chance on him there the ownership’s low the price is delightful I have bet Brooks at 25 to1 I I think at that price I’m just if Scotty wins he wins you know I’ve bet Scotty top 10 so if you finish in inside the top 10 I’m getting half my outright stake back anyway so it’s basically like play that market without Scotty in a weird way but Brookie I don’t mind putting him toe-to-toe like if there’s cam Smith Brooks oh yeah you know I think those are definitely two guys i’ would feel very comfortable with going down the stretch with Scotty we’ve always you know anything could happen but that’s why I I wanted that and the fact that this guy is just you know when you when you have that brain stem light up at a venue that’s difficult I think that’s what we’re looking for yeah because the p same thing as will zores the the more easy a golf course is yes Brooks has won a major and a very easy Golf Course too but he’s he’s best when he’s really challenged you know I think that’s that’s Brooks’s style so Keith Keith talked about it also just with the scar tissue if you want to call it that of every single player this season that can’t seem to beat Scotty Sheffer in a golf tournament I know Brooks would be 0 for two based off of that answer but you can’t convince me that Brooks in his mind doesn’t think that he is the best player player in the world anytime he tees it up whether he’s right or wrong on that assessment we can have a different discussion based off of that but Brooks goes to these events with the mentality and I’ve heard him say it before x amount of players can’t win because of one reason X percent of players will get into contention and can’t win you limit the field to what’s 20 or 30 players at the end of the day and I know Brooks has that mentality that at any moment he should be the guy that’s going to win one of these contests so I’m sure just the the mentality that he has he’s sick of hearing this Scotty schler answer it doesn’t mean that he wins this golf tournament and he can overcome that but um I I think 25 to1 is a very fair price I if we had had him on the PGA tour or we had any semblance of success from him where he had posted a top 10 finish we’re probably looking at like 15 16 14 somewhere in that range to one yeah this guy’s r five Mages yeah so okay wait okay all right hang on hang on hang on right to Spencer’s Point ow and2 versus Scotty is better than Owen ow and N right 100% if you’re gonna use the rationale that that Brooks has five majors and we should be betting him then I can use the rationale that Rory has four majors and we should be betting him right is that what we’re saying B has got five majes in the span that Rory doesn’t have any all right Rory’s last four majors were like 11 years ago Brookie just won last year you know like we’ve seen it more recently than him you know I think we also know what I just I think he was like he lost tons and tons of putting at at the PGA well Byron I can tell you why like if I answer the question for you I guess that Keith was posing here’s what I would say when you look at a guy like roran and I fell for the Trap this week even with the lack of major success that he’s had the past 10 years all of that’s still baked into the number of what Rory can be and what Rory is at moments of time I think the one difference here and I did not bet Brooks which is a funny argument to be making here but you know at 25 to one that is a much different price to where I think you can kind of take some of that major success that he’s had and almost put it into play a little bit more at that number I I don’t I didn’t get there because I couldn’t buy into that theory myself Keith at the end of the day but I think from a number grab it does make somewhat of sense going that route but I I think in general as a general rule of thumb any time that an answer is given to where a golfer has done this in the past it’s usually already baked into that price and you have no value in that moment so uh we could make an argument based off of that that maybe the sports books think that Brooks should actually be 40 to1 and this is not a fair number to begin with or you can make an argument that because he hasn’t succeeded to the extent that most people wanted early in the season that this number got boosted I guess it’s just you have to figure out where you land with that answer for how much you want to play Brooks in any iteration of the market I think there’s been a very interesting theme that’s been building this year that we’re all having a very difficult time with myself included so I’ll raise my hand and just say it’s very everyone’s having a tough time letting go I mean how much speed conversation has there been all year this guy’s won twice in seven years right I mean we can’t let go of Rory we can’t let go of Brooks like it it’s tough for us to like to I guess to to admit that our heroes you know what I mean have fallen a bit from Grace people can’t let go of Rah I I couldn’t let go of Rah in the first two majors right I’m like this guy’s so good he he is so good in Majors like Brooks is so good in Majors but guess what uh for every Brooks that came up in 2014 and finished fourth year Pinehurst there’s a ludvig that’s coming around the corner or there’s a Colin or there’s a Victor right it’s been a very interesting year for letting go of a Patrick kley you know when when Victor was 50 to one at the at Valhalla and and good on you Spencer for still betting him but like he’s 50 to one for a reason like everyone’s like oh now there’s Super Value there and I look at that as a golf professional and I go that’s there’s there’s a super problem there you know like and it’s just very interesting to me how we keep having these discussions that we keep going back to the same people and trying to convince ourselves to go down that road when there’s when there’s obviously people in better form that are right in front of us it’s just interesting that’s all I mean Keith I’ve played this game for 10 years with Jason day I’ve tried to break up for 10 years and he pulls me back in over and over again I like Jason day this week I I want that to be noted on the show I faded Jason day at the memorial I actually think day and we can have an argument about where he should L land I think he’s a top 30 player in this tournament we’ll just leave it at that so for the price in DFS he’s very playable yeah and if that pter this is the thing this is what this week is making like such uncertainty for is anyone’s putter can get hot and then we’ve got um who who was the big Hefty fellas that the boys were all playing with a while like in in 2005 Keith I think there was was coke or [ __ ] or um it was it was some really big we starting to approach the part in the show where my mind leaves my body and my mouth just starts running away with things go to the next go to the next person go to the next person I’ll just click number three and tell you that Rory maroy is 12 to1 we’ve spoken about that already Spencer Xander shafley he’s sitting number three for you we’ve already chatted about Colin and Xander is number three let’s chat about him so I I saw you tweet TW this Byron that you had some trepidation with the tickets that you had for him to come top 20 and you were considering betting out of that um there is this public sentiment that’s come into play right now that I don’t really agree with it and I mean you can tell me why you would think that Byron if you still believe that but Xander from a statistical perspective is probably the second best player in the world right now and I still don’t know if we necessarily as a betting Community whether that’s outright betting head-to-head betting I think the head-to-head Market we kind of see where that Trends every week with him being a favorite so we’ll exclude that for a second but DFS I always feel like he’s the one option that nobody wants to actually play at the numbers that we’re at I really like Xander I almost want to go on here and say that I think Xander after not winning a major is going to go back to back in majors and win the US Open here as of right now that would be my pick to win this tournament I know he’s third Rory’s ahead of him my concerns with Rory and um it’s it’s the lack of he’s gonna blow up I’m afraid at some point I I’ve already stressed that a million times like Xander I trust his ability to be able to produce and I have now seen it happen in action so I like Xander quite a bit for this tournament and I don’t know where the ownership’s going to go for DFS think that’s going to be the interesting Mark there but uh like when he was 13 to one and I know that sounds like an outrageous price when he was on bet 365 earlier today thought that was value on the number and that might be a crazy thing to say he’s he’s a fascinating case study because everyone’s speaking about him being the flood gates are going to open I and the water’s going just leave the dam I think the air is going to get let out the balloon after the wi you know like this is and and from from a statistical perspective Spencer I don’t think he’s the second best player in the world he is the second best player in the world like there’s no doubt about it and this is what makes my my concern so weird is because I said this to you right after you won I was like God damn it now my my top 10 top 20 all four majors is like in kind of Jeopardy because I feel like that that angst that that drive to continually Chase all of this is now kind of gone you know I feel like he’s he could potentially have some sort of like um he’s just too chilled you know like just too cocky I I don’t know it’s just it’s it’s not statistically based at all it’s just a feeling I have in my bones I’m going to let it ride out but you know I’m I’m so in intrigued to see where his career goes now after this because the ball striking was ass at Memorial and that’s not good good for him he’s been so so solid in that department there are seven players in my model that over a two-year running perspective have gained over 1.3 Strokes per round in Strokes gain total Sheffer would be 2.63 Xander would be 2.05 the the only two that are over two Rory is 1.87 Rah is 1.68 that is surprisingly tied with Terell Hatton we can have a hat in discussion at some point I do think there’s intriguing upside for him at this tournament oberg would be 1.34 and then moraa would be 1.30 and then everybody else is going to be less than 1.15 in my model so you know Xander is not as far off in my opinion from Scotty like you’re looking at essentially two and a half Strokes Giver take or Strokes game total per Tournament away from Scotty which is a lot like that’s how much better Scotty is than everybody but he is the one person that is actually in the range where he’s not getting completely lapped that we’re looking at like a three stroke difference here that’s just the thing is he’s just so solid he’s so solid he’s so solid Keith what you doing with Xander um quick Xander story from last week at Memorial there’s a new Xander in town and I’m happy for that because um I never really enjoyed Xander before I thought he was a little tooo tight to the the best and um so I asked him a question um we’re in the pr we’re in his press or in the media center were this press conference and I and I said Xander I said uh you know your game is like super well suited to major championship venues your record there is really really good why do you think you’ve never had a top 10 here at mirfield Village which I thought was a very relevant question I think both of you guys would have loved to hear have heard the answer to that to which he retorted he said I’ve never had a top 10 here at which I didn’t say anything and he was like you sure now it’s just he and I there’s like 25 people in the room but he’s just he and I and he go you sure and I still didn’t say anything and I was like why do you think that is right because I mean I knew what his record was right so he kind of like looks at the guy who’s the moderator from PGA Tour coms and he’s like looking at him so he gets on his phone or whatever and he says well he goes this is just a really hard golf course and I don’t know that I’ve ever given it and he came through up this very thoughtful answer and everything and then he turned to the guy and the guy said the best you ever did was t11 so then he he came out to me and he said he said hey I’m sorry you were right I don’t know that zaner would have done that a year ago let alone five years ago I think that the leadership decisions he’s made in his life have transformed him not just as a player but as a person for him to step away from his dad and I don’t know if I’ve ever said this to you guys before but there were three guys on tour that I thought were severely handicapped by their their sonf father relationship every son wants to make their dad proud right and there’s still two more that are out there that are under the shadow of that umbrella and I I and I think that they’ll never reach their potential as long as that person is still like firmly entrenched in the camp the fact that Stefon who was such a big influence on what Xander was doing was in Hawaii when he won his first major was a really astronomically good thing for Xander right and and I think that that’s kind of neat when it comes to the US Open lot of people forget where Xander started back at Aaron Hills he qualified to get in that tournament and finished fifth yeah okay he just didn’t like show up like tiger with like flowing robes and everything you know what I mean and like doves were flying right like that guy qualified to get in the event at Aaron Hills and he finished fifth and since then he’s finished better than 14th in every single of seven us opens he’s ever been in so like I was never the biggest Xander fan but over the last you know like couple of months forget the forget the major but like being out there on tour he’s really opened up and he’s really become a man in making decisions as a leader you know like the best thing you could say about leaders is whether they’re right or wrong they make decisions they’re decisive right why is everyone so critical of Jay or different people in this whole live situation right is it that no one’s telling anybody anything no one’s stand up and saying this is what you need to do well Xander did that with his life I give him all the credit in the world and I think that that’s why it’s taking his game to another level I do not think he’ll win backtack Majors but that’s why I have him number two preach baby preach that was really nice Keith um who are the other two guys by the way the other two guys the other two guys with their Dads um you can’t figure that out well I know one’s with two letters the other one I’m not entirely sure about uh the other one is his full-time Coach and he’s got seven Runner UPS most recently bowar I got okay okay okay that makes a lot of then all right um but he’s still he’s still young behind the ears there for a second so um I think that his first would also be a major but we can chat about him when we get out of this ranking tier yeah we got Scotty Sheffer folks I mean I’m just going to drag it down pop it all up we’ve got Scotty across the board do we just not talk about like let’s just not talk about him like what what are we what are we doing here you know like outside of just betting this guy top five top 10 for me this is the only way I think I can go about it I I don’t know how are you guys handling Scotty Sheffer Keith you go first oh um I’ve got a pretty uh controversial take here so I’ll let Spencer go first all right Spence I think my biggest issue or my biggest issue with Scotty is just the price tag above anything else here so I am not somebody that’s ever going to find myself we’ll call it plus 333 as the number that I I see a lot of people posting in the space I’m not going to find myself even as aggressive as my card ended up being this week I am never going to have two units of exposure on the line when I’m betting to win seven units you have to be very exact and I’m not saying that the price isn’t even necessarily right or wrong I’ve talked a lot about numbers getting baked into the totals and there’s no argument that the price is being baked into the the fact here I mean he’s won five times on tour this season he is it took it go back to the Genesis that’s the worst tournament he’s had since the PGA Championship and you had to throw him behind jail in the PGA Championship to have that sort of a finish or he probably you know I’m very happy for Xander that he won I’m not so sure Xander wins that tournament if Scotty has Ted Scott on the bag on Saturday and he wasn’t in jail the day before so everything went wrong for Scotty in that moment unfortunately and it benefited uh Xander in that particular situation from a statistical perspective and I don’t even want to talk about this for DFS because there’s really no reason to say not to play him in my mall and I’m curious to hear what Keith is going to say the two points that at least at least would push me in some sort of a direction and I mentioned the Bermuda putting we have seen an increase from him this season with his putter from his long-term Bermuda putting he falls outside the top 100 so if you want to say that he’s become a better putter recently once again I understand that argument but you add that to some of the weighted bogey avoidance totals that I did have in my like he’s only 20th for me in weighted bogy avoidance which I thought was really surprising that stem from an 81st Place grade from Sand safe percentage he was 30th for three putt percentage those are all fine numbers but it’s one thing if I’m giving out all those totals then he’s whatever number you want to throw out there to win it’s another answer where I actually am finding red flags that are entering the mix somewhat on a golfer that’s 3.33 to1 so um that’s a long-winded answer to say that I am priced out beyond anything else I’m not going to get two units of exposure on him but like we’d have to be in the six or seven to one range for me to start considering this and that’s not the days that we’re in anytime soon at this moment Spencer would you put two units on him to win uh one from a top five or a top 10 sorry let’s go with a top 10 see here’s the thing that’s not my market of where I would like to EXP but I think that is so much better going that route than any of the other examples I I would rather aggressively attack them where I actually can figure out where my long-term Edge is I don’t have to worry about volatility that’s going to come into play this is a challenging venue you’re going to have runouts to where if you land in this wired grass or if you land in in any of these areas you can very quickly get taken out of this tournament and that worries me when we’re paying such a premium price on Scotty so as much as we can make this safe and and maybe for me I don’t know who the opponent would be it’s almost like if I could find the right opponent I’d rather lay a lot of juice in that direction maybe beyond anything else and find one person to beat if you want to go to the top 10 round and I know you’ve had a lot of success with that Byron that’s certainly a route to consider but just too much volatility for me at this course to pay some of those premium totals I mean he made triple bogey at mirfield and still won the tournament you know like that’s what we’re doing though I mean like so to me I think the top five top 10 Market allows you for one of those and he’s still going to be there you know and I think that’s why I prefer that versus the outright side of things and and taking on that juice it’s been profitable for me this whole week so Keith I’m I’m I’m excited what is what is going on in your brain over there ah just um full disclosure I I’m not going to bet Scotty this week if I was going to do it at that number I should have done it last week and I missed that opportunity right everything going into the memorial told us that he was going to gain 13 on approach again and he went and did it and he was trending much better with the putter so he wasn’t going to lose whatever it was 19 Strokes or something to Denny McCarthy like he did the year before right so uh I started this way if you put the usgaa in charge of this event and it’s already crispy there’s going to be more luck involved than Spencer and I are going to be comfortable with betting somebody at 3 to one I am not going to bet somebody in an event where they just showed me a month ago that they took the best player in the world and allowed her to make a 10 and somebody would say well like oh maybe she’s not that good she’s second on the tour in short game all right she’s second in Nelly’s second in the LPGA in short game around the green Strokes game around the green okay you take the top 10 women in the world in the Rolex world rankings and they averag five and a half over par in round one the top 10 women in the world Spencer describe for me a world where the top 10 men in the world play any tournament in one round and they all average five and a half overp par is that even possible like is it you’re the model Maniac Byron it could it could in the maniac ecosystem could that ever happen right is it a good Professional Event when the cut is plus eight in my opinion as a professional I don’t want to play in tournaments like that because that tells me that I can’t I can’t predict luck right and there’s going to be a fair amount of luck that’s going to take place in the tournament this week so either if I was going to go Scotty in an event like this I would go Scotty so heavy everywhere I would take him everywhere I could I would take him as an outright I would take him um top five I would take him low American I would take him everywhere because when he wins he wins everything right I would take him head-to-head and NY head-to-head matchup that was like under three to one I would just I would just Bank it all and then I would go single bullet for the winner right like but I look at the US Open and this is not the week to do it the week to do it was last week next week is probably not the week to do it because it’s a wedge Fest and and guys can go can go super nuclear with the Putter and then Scotty can’t really differentiate so these two weeks in a row are super difficult but with so much luck involved I’m just not going to go down that road at three to one I just can’t I can’t justify it I can come up with better reasons why I think Colin or cam or whoever else I go with on my outright card has a chance to take him down right so that’s that’s where I stand on the on what I’m going to do with Scotty but what I wanted to tell you guys is that we’re getting to the part in the show where Byron’s gonna call me old right so I remember the days like 2008 Masters Tiger goes in he’s plus 180 outright okay Spence he’s plus 180 outright he’s won 10 of his last 12 tournaments and he’s going to a place where he already has four Green Jackets we are now in rarified air and I’m not comparing the two of them I’m just comparing the decision that everyone has to make see everyone in in in golf betting Twitter has only bet since 2018 when it was legal so we’ve never we’ve never come across this before right so no one’s ever had to make this decision and I love watching and listening to all these different podcasts where people are like they don’t know what to do with scy and I’ve heard for years it’s like yeah I got to win one and seven the units have to be spread here and then everyone this week’s like I’m taking Scotty right like well wait a second like and I’m not saying that’s hypocritical they’re just trying to win and I understand that right but I could remember going back to those tiger days and betting Al it wasn’t legal at the time but and betting and having that decision to make do you take the field the best guys you can in the field or do you take the one guy at two to one in a major championship right and it takes serious serious stones to make a decision and I was super proud of the way I I brought up how I thought Zander handled his life you know what I mean and I’m and I’m very entertained by how everyone is handling this week because I mean it was basically all shoved in our face last week by Scotty right like as hard as that Golf Course was he still got it done with a triple bogey so everyone is so fearful this week of not winning and missing the Scotty bus but there really is no bus there it’s like the backseat of a Volkswagen it’s three to one there’s there’s nothing there for you right like the it it just becomes like a it’s so difficult but like having everyone come up with a way to deal with this internal like anguish is really entertaining to me so i’ I’m enjoying this week immensely and I’ll leave it at that there are ramifications for placing that wager from a bankroll perspective and and I think he said it best people are more concerned with saying that they hit the winner than actually making a long-term profit and that’s the unfortunate stage that we have reached at this moment right now in golf betting and um you are correct Keith there’s a lot of people that for very long and you know I I will Pat myself on the back I feel like when I entered the space in 2018 and I started releasing my outright cards and as somebody who’s lived in Vegas and has been around the gambling scene for a long time now I I did it to win eight units originally that was what one unit or less to win eight and over the course of time I have diminish those totals ever so slightly to now win seven this week I have over a unit of exposure I have 1.2 units of exposure that’s as heavy as you’ll ever see me get on an outright card and you know it’s one of those things that I will Express and the reason why I’m doing that is I am trying to figure out a way to take on Scotty with a couple of golfers in my sheet that I had a long-term Edge on it doesn’t doesn’t mean I end up being correct it doesn’t mean I picked the right names it doesn’t mean that Scotty Sheffer doesn’t win all of those things have a real potential to come into play Scotty can win this golf tournament and nobody is going to bat an ey when that happens and we will not be shocked and we are not an anti Scotty shuffler show we just all showed our models and our rankings of why he is the number one player for us value at the end of the day is the only thing that matters in betting and if you do not have value in the number of where you are placing your ticket you’re going to lose money long term and that is the unfortunate truth that people out there don’t always take into account when they place a wager yeah I mean it’s just you don’t get to flip the screen like Tik Tock you know like it’s just this is what we’re doing and it’s hard it’s hard when it gets like this it’s really hard to make that decision but that it’s the hard that makes it good right Tom Hanks right A League of Their Own it’s like this is what really really is fun about doing this you know at the end of the day it’s this is what a real Sunday sweat is it means it starts on Monday and you’re gon and you’re GNA go all week and you’re G to grind this thing out like me walking that golf course in the heat with the bugs right and the humidity and the sand coming up right and then those guys are out there for five and a half hour rounds and just battling you know the elements and everything knowing that Scotty’s hanging over their head the whole time at every decision they make I mean this is the beauty of it this is what makes it great this is what you know like all those years with tiger fighting those those bets I mean um and I love all the creativity and I’m not trying to be hypercritical of people or calling anyone a hypocrite I just think it’s interesting no one’s ever faced this before but we have people Spencer you know that you know from back in those days we have faced this before right this is not new this is this is not the Mayflower right and um it’s it’s kind of neat that we’re back here it won’t last forever so thankfully you know cuz golf that way but it’s it’s it’s pretty cool that we’re back there and it’s such a historic place it is and I just want to like kind of wrap up this conversation about Scotty for the US Open by saying that if you’re tuning in for the first time watching the US Open and you are not a person trying to make a long-term profit off of Bing maybe Scotty Sheffer is the guy to go to this week because your your entry fee to the tournament is going to be you’re not going to get kicked out you’re going to be the last person to be kicked out essentially and I think Scotty’s going to give you the most bang for your buck from an entertainment perspective and that’s basically what we’re trying to do if you’re just tuning in for the first time now but if you’re looking to make money long-term betting then you likely don’t want to put Scotty sheff on your card so my father-in-law my Keith’s my St you know like all of those people you guys you throw your money on there and have a good one and um those that are trying to make money long-term follow Spencer and I and Keith situation there and kind of just go through that so um that was fun how do we do on time how to be long did the top 10 guys up and cray CS along the way yeah some guys that we haven’t chatted about Windom Clark and Patrick Cy in the 92 Range pretty much everyone else we’ve already discussed those are two fascinating subjects they both struggling mightly one has a US Open win but both horrific major track records essentially based off of their current skill level um relative so Spencer if you were to pick between Patrick kley and Xander I mean and wendam Clark which Avenue would you go down I I told you Byron I full- faded Windom Clark last week and I feel like my model has been very accurate I I had him last year at the US Open I had him at Pebble Beach at 100 to one this is one of those golfers that my model has been accurate on over the course of time I like Windam for this tournament I think that the buzz has died off of him I have him as a top 15 win Equity projected player in my sheet it’s a boomer bust play with him I I certainly understand that the form we have gotten recently has massive concerns in the profile but when you get a price and and I didn’t get there in the outright Market but boost the number out to 75 to one or higher talk about a golfer that at least in public perception wise is going to be overpriced because nobody’s going to want to play him at this number that we’re getting right now after the results that we’ve gotten I think he’s a good DFS play yes he can or Clark I would go kley I just think it’s really ironic that Windam won the event last year whatever 80 to1 and he’s back to 80 to1 yeah with a signature win in between so it’s that’s but simply I’d go kley yeah and it’s crazy to think that Windam has had such a good track record and we only like four starts away from a third place finish and yet yeah we are like that’s just how crazy his game has gone South so fascinating stuff there I think we were chatting about we haven’t really spoken about Max you know his major track record has been atrocious but that T3 came right after the T10 at the open last year so I think it’s really important to have some major pedigree and I think he’s starting to kind of roll that through if I were to tell you between Max and Matthew Fitzpatrick Keith which would you lean into there Matthew Fitzpatrick is currently $8,200 and Max H is $8600 on the DFS slate Matthew Fitzpatrick pedigree in the US Open TCC or the Country Club’s a great comp for this um and uh it I mean he was pretty impressive on Sunday one of the few players I forget what the total number of player was that shot under par but he was one of them um yeah three okay so he’s one of he Colin and then one of the guy um I can’t remember off the top of my head but um I think it was Bey maybe oh yeah he he jumped big time too so um yeah I would go Fitzy okay I like it I mean and that’s the thing but you you’re getting so much volatility from Fitz whereas I think with Mai getting a bit more safety but Fitz can go on these runs man where on a difficult golf course he can still fire so right there with you I think I prefer his his track record in majes over over Max anyway but I think Max will likely be the least owned option spins oh sure Fitz was the first player if we’re talking about our top 10 here that didn’t make my list he was 11th overall for me one of the Intriguing things that I and I’ve talked about this quite frequently recently on this show which is certain players that anytime they receive a an a projected increase in their weighted proximity versus what their Baseline is so that’s just throw them on a specific venue where does their upside land compared to where it normally would be Fitz is one of those golfers that when he has positive trajectory in that area we usually get good results saw it last week you look here he’s inside the top 40 for me from weighted proximity when you place that extra emphasis on Long iron play he’s 72nd for me from a two-year perspective on any other uh type of a course out there so I think the iron play is going to be inging he’s 17th for me in weighted scoring and if you want to look at the top 10 grades for me in this sheet seventh for weighted Strokes gain total eighth for strokes gain total at hard scoring courses and then Byron your stat of the week he’s 10th for me and strokes gain total at Majors there we go dude and that’s the thing it makes a big deal and one thing I do want to mention though at the open and austa 80% of winners at those two venues have either had a second or a win in their prior major track record if you want to take that 80% and transfer it to the US Open you can move your number to 10 so instead of a second place finish or better it’s a top 10 so that just makes this event so much more vol like the US opening General is just a volatile the cut being smaller just everything just makes it volatile so I think that’s kind of why I’ve shot at these like longer odds but it’s an interesting tournament to take long shots on so just thought I’d throw that out there as we scooting on down Tony fenal or Jordan spe go ahead jez I I was just gonna say that just goes back to the Scotty argument at three to one in this in this particular tournament 15 of the last 19 have been firsttime major winners yeah you know um yeah I would go I would go feno I bet feno at Memorial um I think feno is very good off Short Grass um as far as a short game goes uh I’m not as worried about the putter here um and the ball striking is obviously very very good so I would go F now and uh who was the other guy spe who just gained the most Strokes off the tea at Memorial and missed the cut wait who who I got spins Keith’s getting sassy with me now I’m gonna call you all soon sir you just did no I’m just joking I don’t know if you’ve noticed this Keith maybe we’ also got some lag on the internet side of things we making awkward too whose internet is it that’s is it your Internet Byron I think so my wife just came home and things have gone South so yeah probably I think that’s a sign that the show has gone on too long where I see your lips moving but nothing’s coming out and I I don’t know when to actually chime in and talk but um I’ll say Jordan’s we’re talking about to actually win this tournament correct I’ll say Jordan spe based off of that answer I don’t necessarily want to go down either one of these two routes but I I I I think spe has more of a potential to actually hit like the boom part of it than fenal does I I have bet Tony fow so many times this year including last week and he’s really not been close outside of Houston if you want to say I mean he gained a million Strokes ball striking there and couldn’t make a putt and in a major championship I I would have concerns of fal’s ability to actually make putts down the stretch awesome so can you guys hear me yet am I back okay I was about to just type to you guys to just kind of rattle off a few more names out of you on your own while I just sit you in a stagnant staring mode but back one yeah yeah all right I got one for you two guys who would you take Harris English or Keegan Bradley I’m instantly say Keegan because I have a Keegan outright I think he’s driving the ball far too well right now to leave him off a card Keegan would also be my answer I was trying to figure out a way to get exposure to him of some kind um the problem is is I think he’s a better bet inside of like the outright Market or any of these high-end placement bets there are some head-to-head Wagers out there that I am highly intrigued of actually punching the ticket on Keegan I I worry a little bit about his volatility but Keegan was a top 25 player in every iteration of how I built my model this week and that’s not to say that Harris English also didn’t produce he was inside of the top 33 in every way that I built it but you know when we’re having to parse through the data and actually make a decision I’ll ever so slightly lean towards Keegan here ever so slightly because those are two very nice options I would say so that was a great question there Keith which one would you lean to Keegan I just uh um and it’s a slight Edge but um and maybe even course history lean you know gives him the tiebreaker T4 in 2014 um and it it extremely extremely for for everybody that knows that Hideki is great around the green that’s how many people don’t know how good Keegan is around the green and he is extraordinarily good around the green player and Scrambler just awesome very good at at lag putting as well you know so I think and he won his only only major on Champion Bermuda just you know maybe that matters in his first appearance of a major as well which was quite fascinating as we scooting on down here sah the Gala or no what I’m gonna change this just for Spencer Cameron young or Jason day 75 74 you know what’s so funny Byron is I was saying let me ask a question here and you ended up chiming in before I could I was going to say let me ask you guys Jason day versus Cameron young so great mind think alike there I have an answer I’ve kind of alluded to it previously and um I’ll let Keith talk about it first because I know throughout the show you have mention something about Cameron young so far so uh if you want to give me your take on Jason day versus Cameron young we’ll start with you sure it’s funny you said uh great minds think alike I thought it was fools seldom differ neither here nor there I would go Jason day as well um for um course history uh also the way that he plays sand belt Australia um the short game is is such a huge Factor here I mean that’s not splitting hairs when you start to talk about the difference between their two short games it it’s not the difference between what we’re saying about Harris and um Keegan Bradley I mean we’re talking these two are Lighty years apart and the ball striking is it seems as if all almost some of his struggles for Cameron have have kind of um permeated into other parts of his game so he just seems a little bit off um also the US open’s been his worst of four majors as far as performances go so I I would be much more on Jason day he just makes much more sense and he’s he’s a nice highball hitter a good putter great Scrambler and and he’s been he’s been in relatively good form this year good enough that I I think he would win that head-to-head match up for sure yeah I think I would probably imagine Cameron Young comes in less owned than Jason day I don’t know about how much and I think that will be the the decision I’d have to make on if I want to go to Cameron young because I still think Cameron young is going to have his first win in a major this is going to happen and he’s he’s he’s been so close so often and and just shows up so it’s going to be I won’t play him if he’s anywhere near call a 10% you know like I’m going to need serious leverage on Cameron young to to get him in my lineups but if not so be it you know I’m not too not too scared there I assume you will I I sorry I I assume you will get that leverage like we talked about it on better our golf last week Byron it when your nickname in the space becomes scam young and you continue to disappoint every single week it’s people are not going to want to go back there and and I can talk about my model not necessarily loving him he has better upside than he does his floor and and that’s why for large field gppp contest there’s consideration to be had but any of the safety markets like we’re talking specifically a head-to-head bet I I would kind of like to fade Cameron young in any of those spots well Camy young won me my Sam Burns matchup last week because he made the cut only you know that’s all I needed from him but you know that’s that’s the situation we’re living in yeah Tom Kim or mini Keith two very different individuals but one Tom Kim has got he’s got some major pedigree in his bones Tom Kim I’m taking the Tank Engine for sure yeah I I just I I listen to the minm ARG earlier and I thought it was fantastic but I just don’t see the approach game being there um and I get the comp last year from LACC but Tom kin has been really impressive in majors and if there was gonna be a setup of a golf course that favored him because of his lack of length I mean this is a perfect spot he’s an unbelievable Scrambler so um I would go Tom Kip and think about how much he’s puted well when he’s won these tournaments right like I can see him making putt off to putt off to putt at this kind of a venue because he’s just that kind of guy Spencer Tom Kim or mini I’m I’m going to go minwu because that’s actually the ticket that I punched but I do want to say I think if we’re looking for DFS here and if you want to start at I mean I mentioned Hatton earlier so we can go like to the upper part of the sevens and work our way down Hatton theala Jason day Tom Kim Min woi Ben on sunj IM I think all of those players have ability in different iterations of the market so it’s more so for me an answer of how much I like minwoo than anything for any other reason Tom Kim could win that matchup very easily it’s a 52 48% sort of difference for me there um I think there’s a lot of really intriguing options though of a lot of those guys I just mentioned in that $7,000 range that have playability in this tournament yes I it’s it’s the range that makes me think Scotty Sheffer is going to be very popular again because I think someone asked you about how you want to play Scotty Sheffer in in the different contests I’ve been going on about this the whole time Scotty was in the optimal in a in a 800 person contest with me you know like it’s it’s just happening now and it’s it’s unfortunate so I think I’m locking Scotty in this week I’m just locking him in I’m going to play everyone around him I’m trying to find the five best guys around Scotty because I think he’s going to be the optimal um for the last 4 minutes let’s go yes or no answers only or just the the one name of the two I’m gonna go Keith then Spencer let’s go sanj M or Benny an M Spence I’ll go sunj yeah I like them both we’ll see what happens Justin Rose or Brian Harman Rose Harmon Austin ekro Denny McCarthy ecro I’ll go McCarthy okay Spencer tell us why well I mean I’m going specifically based off of where my model has the do like if I look at this from a safety number and I and I do think that we can play whatever the best rank is when you’re talking about a golfer that’s going to be in the $6,000 range I have a value on McCarthy even with his overall rank I have him 36 overall he gets worse for upside which would make sense at a tournament like this but the safety number put him inside of the top 20 for me so a lot of that’s going to be because of the back-to-back top 20 finishes that he’s had at us opens I his short game can be really good if he’s one of those golfers like there’s been such a talk in the space so far and and I did it at the beginning of the show where the longest and the straightest player is going to win and and I well I realize that’s not the recipe of the long end of it for Denny McCarthy there are players that if you can take one of those two areas and find the high-end success from those metrics I think you can produce a top 10 or 20 finish so McCarthy’s sort of grading as one of those golfers that is landing right in that range for me he’s fascinating because he’s got that short game you know that’s the that’s the Wild Thing all right 15% or 20% SE ster what’s his ownership at $6,500 Keith at 65 15 spins here’s the answer I’m gonna give and this is maybe where I this is the contrarian answer sep straa is one of my biggest fade candidates that I have on the board this week so whatever the number is of either one of those two totals I will have head-to-head matchups against him I I will not be playing him in DFS I have concerns with the profile specifically for this tournament to where last week he was one of my favorite values that I had on the board this week it’s gone in the exact opposite direction 53rd overall for me 79th for upside the safety numbers are sure fine but um it’s a lot of that around the green game and the negative returns there and for as much as he’s been ball striking it and he has been ball striking it the last couple tournaments he moves in the wrong direction for a tournament like this like he was 60th for me in way to proximity when I added in those extra long irons and even the we to Total driving only put him 53rd just because of the 107th Place grade that I had in Strokes gain off the T for him when you took hard coures into play so I I have my concerns with strep uh sep Stu yeah um Keith hit me with that and then let’s almost get out of you I think we’ve we’ve been holding these people for far too long my I’m seeing myself blurry that’s the first time that’s ever happened to me so what what are your favorite plays in the 5K range for the both of you starting with oh the 5K range the 5K range is gross oh man yes um can’t say Harry higs I was just gonna say that um why he’s not he’s not the 2024 version of Jason Gore um that’s who I was trying to think of oh man all right Spencer you go ahead first let Keith we’re gonna let him um knock his stuff out there let me I mean if I’m being honest I really don’t want to get down in this section if I can avoid it um yeah ma Meer graded well for me Justin low graded as like a fringe person that could make or miss the cut Shanks venson coocher but the there’s really no name and that’s the very top end of the range we talking about to begin with these are borderline made cut candidates that I would rather move into the $6,000 section and there’s a lot other like I’d rather Play Taylor pen at that 6,100 or an option like that sure okay so basically leave the fives alone go into the Sixers and try and figure out it from there Keith I’m assuming you You’ sharing a similar sentiment yeah I mean like I just see guys that are hanging right around those low sixes like a Steven jger who drives the ball great and has an incredible short game that has like I mean just figure it out up I mean there there were so many options up top where you could go off by $300 or $400 right you know so I just um it’s 68 guys qualified to get in this and I know I earlier I did a little Soliloquy on Xander but I don’t see Xander down there right from 2017 so like just throw it out there you have an on like you have a plethora of players in the $66,000 section that are going to be inside of the top 35 of my model Keith mentioned two of them in Keegan Bradley and Harris English he just talked about Stephen joerger um yeah Russell Henley like there there’s a million names that we can go to if you want to look at I mean we live in a world where Taylor Morris one of the few guys that finished top five and two majors this year right yeah like Rory didn’t do that just saying Taylor Moore Rory’s busy doing other things folks just like my internet but that was fun we had a blast it’s the US Open you know what if we not a lot of people can speak about golf for two hours on a show and we just did that and we could probably keep on going for another two if we really wanted to but we have to send old man Keith off to bed and it’s now two hours so now I’m just sending dig after dig after dig and we’re all just doing it tongue and cheek so Keith thank you so much for coming on the show again we’ve we love you on the show over here and it’s it’s so much fun getting to hear what your thoughts are about the gulf and it’s it’s just I’m so excited for this week so tell the people everything that’s going on in your life this week you’re in the area and it’s just exciting so um well the most exciting thing where I love when I come on here and I get Spencer’s Revelations like when he kind of talks out to the screen about his own issues with what he’s doing um earlier he talked about how he now bets Brooks more because he’s with Liv than he was when he was on the PGA tour I thought that was a great Spencer Revelation and then the second one was when he went deep on the whole betting Rory and not being able to let him go as if it was like you know I don’t know like a woman that he thought of like in high school or something like that on TV or whatever you know like a crush that he had or something it was it’s very interesting so I I I enjoyed that immensely but no um to answer your question um the good fun that we have here is like totally backed up with like really thoughtful and accurate information which is what I find most inspiring so um if you’re into stuff like that then go check me out at read the line I mean I think at this point after two hours most people know where I’m coming from um I had some fun with Pat Mayo this week we did a like a really in-depth Porsche preview um there’s nobody better at asking thanful thoughtful questions and I’m pretty good at talking so um we had a fun show there I spent some time with um kind of some fundamental media with um Gary Williams you remember him from the Golf Channel um he’s has a media a golf media company out there that he started called five clubs Johnson Wagner’s on there um Gil Hans is on there whatever so he wanted to talk about golf betting we did a US Open golf betting preview show you could check that out and of course you’ll see me on if I’m allowed to say rootwire um run you can say whatever you want all right so you’ll see me this week on rootwire um run pure Sports and of course Sports grid a couple times over the next couple days reporting live from Pinehurst so all of this is is down here this is uh the media hotel and um obviously you can always go to readthe line.com that’s where all the where all the links are to the content and uh go subscribe come on you know you want to make sure you read that line folks spena take us out of you well once again Keith we appreciate you coming on like there’s you and Jason soble and there’s a handful of other people that I do shows with uh here and there but I I always enjoy I name you wh soble like you guys the Insight that you bring to the table um from just understanding being there at the tournament actually talking to the players being able to give an answer about Xander that you personally talk to him we we can all come on we can run the data and give all these answers but you know there are certain things like Rory being the last person to show up for Augusta where there’s no way that you can put that into a model and actually get an answer based off of that so it’s an absolute pleasure having you on this show you know I will blame Byron for this for keeping you for two hours but it was a lot of fun when I’m giving up on a two hour show I I wouldn’t stay for two hours if respect wasn’t a 2A street boys that’s all for sure thank you Keith um what is not two-way is my Wi-Fi once more time but you know what what’s oneway street is hitting that like button because that’s easy to do hit the subscribe on the way out please check out all our stuff at rab.com please use code Maniac or t off for yourself over there to get yourself a little 10% discount and we really really appreciate you guys for showing up I had a blast I know you guys did too I’m assuming the chat the two they kind of popping off now we’re getting out of here we really appreciate all of you guys showing up you guys were were bringing the Heat tonight so really appreciate that so it’s the US Open let’s enjoy every minute of it and let’s win some goddamn money this week fol
3 Comments
That diarrheas' fish challenge is just legendary >>>>>> any shoey challenge IMO.
Sleepers Harris English, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger
I am on Bryson & JT. Just need Scottie to get arrested once or twice AND/or finish outside the top 8
Power house panel! Love this show
Tom Kim brings home the hardware this week!