Memorial Tournament Best Bets | Green on the Greens

Iain MacMillan and Cody Williams are back in action this golf season breaking down their best bets for the PGA Tour each week. This week, they’ll be breaking down their best bets for this week’s event, the Memorial Tournament

-Top 20
-Top 10
-Top 5
-Winner
-“Closest to the Win”

e hello everyone welcome to Green on the greens uh special episode Special timing of the of the episode this week we usually are Tuesdays at 400 p.m. uh I will not be here tomorrow so we decided to do it uh a day early um because uh we got to talk about this one because it’s a big week this week it is the Memorial tournament it’s the penultimate uh signature event it’s only this and then The Travelers Championship left in terms of Signature Events we got the US Open next week we’re right in the heart of the golf season uh so we had to do a show at some point Cody thanks for hopping on early what’s going on dude just ready for this week man the memorial is one of my favorite tournaments of the year year like in ter if we’re ranking Signature Events it’s this and Genesis I think is probably the top two like non- Majors that we’re looking at I mean the players you know always has a lot of fun to it but that’s like the you know major number 4.5 not necessarily a signature event yep uh shout out to Bobby Mack Lefty Bob uh Big Shot Bob last week winning the Canadian open obviously uh as a as a you know my my Heritage is Scottish if if a Canadian can’t win the Canadian open uh a Scott especially a lefty Scott I’m a lefty as well um is the next best thing so great to see alltime story with his dad on the bag real tearjerker there at the end uh we love Bobby Mack great to see it uh our Bets did not do great last week uh I called it and I I forget who was in the chat but myself and everyone in the world was on Alex norn and I even think think I said at the end of the show last week he’s gonna miss the cut and of course Alex norn missed the cut I did hit um Maverick McNeely did have a big Sunday to sneak into the top 10 there so that was our big winner last week three to one for Maverick mcney to get a top 10 um and that was the Canadian open what were your thoughts on the Canadian open it was a good test man and it was really like you said I think Bobby Mack coming out was the uh big story and I think he’s even part of the story coming into this week because he withdrew from the memorial he’s not playing he wasn’t lying when he said he’s gonna go to Scotland and party this week ahead of is that official now I didn’t see that earlier is that is that Now official he yeah he has officially withdrawn so um he is officially on his way back to Scotland to uh going a bender I would assume before going to the US Open that’s kind of I mean I it that is kind of funny but that’s also kind of crazy to me because it’s like you’re in great form like you like the memorial is I think one of the it’s well it is one of the bigger purses of the Season uh you kind of want to keep your form and keep going up until the major next week so like why like I feel like can you just hold off two weeks to party um but I guess not um no he’s a he’s a national open King I don’t know if you saw the list going around of all the national opens that he’s won but it’s absurd like I’m pretty sure like the Open Championship and the US Open are like the only two he hasn’t won like he’s won them all over the world it’s crazy well the Scottish open where he was you know was going to win last year and then Rory kind of stole it from him so yeah yeah that’s F I mean I wish I knew that he was you know the champion of open champions last week maybe I would have bet on him uh so yeah that was a fun EV I think Hamilton might be my favorite event on the uh the circuit for the Canadian open that was that that was that was a great Golf Course great challenge like it wasn’t too easy but it wasn’t crazy hard it was like kind of the perfect course for that kind kind of an event no absolutely I think it I think you said it perfectly like I think it would it could be had like your boy McNeely coming on on Sunday and like you could score you could put a low score on the board but at the same time if you weren’t sharp if you didn’t have your game you could also put some big numbers on the board as well so it was like that perfect mix of what I’m looking for from a non- major essentially which is I want you know I want bad shots to be penalized and I want good shots to be rewarded and that’s what we saw I think yes uh so now we are on to the memorial mirfield Village uh Jack’s Place of course uh I mean key things about this event you don’t really need to be driving the ball long you can kind of Target shorter hitters here uh you got to hit ball Strikers guys are going to hit greens and guys who are going to be able to get up and down uh if they miss greens that’s why I’ve never been betting on Victor hin at this event but then he won it last year um you know sometimes even if it doesn’t necessarily player strength sometimes it’s just a a good course for someone’s eye and they do well so uh do you have anything else to add about mirfield Village no I mean it’s just it’s ball Striker Anonymous man it is absolutely a ball Striker golf course which makes sense because it’s jat Nicholas who is historically one of the best ball Strikers we’ve ever seen so the fact that he’s rewarding that doesn’t shock anyone yeah uh and it has it has played tough at times too Victor won last year was it seven under or nine under that he won it last year I believe it was nine it wasn’t it in a playoff with Denny McCarthy or did he avoid the playoff with Denny no it was a playoff yeah yeah uh but we’ve we have seen I think uh it it get as low as 16 under so there’s been kind of a variety of different scores here uh over the years um I we don’t usually give prop bets out um but I will give one out of the top of the show here and that is for to go to a playoff at 3 to one because it’s gone to a playoff six of the past 10 years uh we’ve seen this event go to a playoff including two of the last three Victor hin playoff with Denny seven under he won it last year playoff with Denny McCarthy last year uh Patrick Hanley went two years ago against against uh colore Kawa in a playoff um and then from 2014 to 2016 three straight playoffs um and Bryson to Shambo also won in 2018 in the playoffs so for it to go to a playoff and it makes sense that of course it’s kind of this tough um three to one uh is probably my favorite Propet of the week yeah three to one that that feels uh that’s well worthwhile for sure yeah uh all right I think that’s it I think we can just jump right into our picks here um yeah let’s start with top 20 you kind of stole this one on me uh this is a guy I like as well I’m also going to bet him top 20 I’m also betting on him to win um so you like him as well uh so break down your top 20 pick yeah it’s Billy horel uh and we don’t have the bed MGM odds yet so this is uh you know Tai is not included in the odds you’re going to see today but uh it is plus 190 at DraftKings but Billy H’s form this year man it’s just been it’s been a real rebound from what we saw last year when he was really kind of lost in the wilderness his last two starts just to you know super recent form T8 at PGA Championship and then t24 at the Charles Schwab both of those events he gained more than three Strokes putting and then he gained more than seven at the Schwab he also gained on approach on both in both events but I think what we’ve really seen from Billy Ho is kind of just he’s playing professional golf in a really weird way like he is putting good rounds together even if one part of his game isn’t necessarily treating him properly and so I think that’s a really good sign especially For What Memorial demands like you can succeed here without ball striking if you’re putting the lights out which we’ve seen Billy horel do as of late so I think getting him at top 20 given that he has such a good history here three of his last five starts have been a top 15 finish including a win in 2022 obviously so I think you’re getting this kind of plus money for a top 20 with Billy hoe with how he’s played this year I think is a lot of value yeah that was a big reason why I like him is just because sometimes just got a bit of horse for the course and that is Billy horel at mirfield Village uh missed the cut here last year but I think we can forgive that because of just he was he was lost as you mentioned at this point of the season last year he’s found his game again he’s 11th in total Strokes game this season he’s a Scrambler he can get up and down from all over the greens um so yeah Billy horel um I bet on him to win as well but top 20 is probably the kind of way to bet Billy horel I think his experience of this course is good enough uh that he he knows his way around here and and he can get a top 20 so I got him 80 to one to win uh top 20 is is you know probably the way to go though yeah I I mean I I probably would go win I mean I’m not going to hate on the pick because obviously I like him this week I think he’s a great fit but I like if I were going to G to get aggressive I would probably look at a top 10 something like that but I think that I do think a top 20 is the safe play uh my top 20 it’s kind of a safe play here it’s kind of similar odds plus 180 and that’s for Jason day to finish in the top 20 um you will hear sometimes and I’ve bet on him at this event in the past too because this is technically his home course but he’s also gone in record saying he only plays it during tournament week so uh I think he lives like a five minute drive away I think he like he lives in mirfield Village but um don’t like go ahead and bet big on Jason today just because uh he lives around the corner because apparently only plays a third tournament week but his style of play does kind of fit up uh mirfield Village uh his strengths kind of fit the strengths of it especially his short game this season specifically has been very good uh he’s been a really good Scrambler this week uh I’m not getting too crazy with him I’m not going to bet on him to win or anything like that and he has had some solid finishes here as well um I think did he win this event back in the day too or no like a w like o that’s a great question I feel like he did I should have this in my notes but I don’t no he didn’t uh no he didn’t uh but uh he has had some solid finishes Here style of play does kind of fit this course well sticking with the top 20 bet uh Jason day plus 180 I’m not going to hate on it especially as a top 20 play like out like if you’re betting outright I might have a little bit of qualms with it but I don’t I with a top 20 it’s hard I mean and especially in a 70 player field like you you’re asking him to finish in the top third of the field Jason day is a top third of the top third in the field golfer on most weeks so yeah that’s that’s a good point about the how many people are in these Signature Events it does kind of take away from really like attractive odds when it comes to top 20 because even some guys further down the odds list who are you know long odds to win their top 20 odds aren’t super long just because there’s you know a third of the field almost is going to finish in the top 20 uh let’s move on to top 10 top 10 I’m going with another guy who I think you bet on earlier this season he’s not typically my guy but Keegan Bradley top 10 plus 450 on DraftKings uh his recent form is another one as he’s another guy who’s had tremendous recent form uh last three results are t21 at Wells Fargo t18 at the PGA Championship and then T2 at the Charles Schwab and the stats back up why he’s been able to do that uh he’s over the last 20 rounds he’s seven and Str skined approach he’s top 15 on approach from 175 to 200 yards and from 200 to 225 yards as well which are very key ranges had a not super long but relatively long golf course at Memorial it’s pretty standard in what looking at uh Sixth and par five scoring also over that span and even more the big key with Keegan I think it always is is he’s a gaining with the putter it’s a slight gain but he’s been gaining with the putter over that span as well uh his history at Memorial is the one thing that worries me I think his last two starts are a T30 and a t37 finish so that’s not ideal but I think he’s playing a lot better golf consistently this season than we’ve seen him play over the past couple years and so with his form with the way he’s been finishing I’m getting a little bit more aggressive than I probably normally would with Keegan Bradley but I think a top 10 is very much in play especially with how he’s striking the ball right now yeah I like it no yeah I did I think I did bet him top 20 or something maybe it might have even been close to the win pick but uh yeah all right Keegan Bradley top 10 plus 450 uh my top 10 pick I’m going to go Benny on plus 360 to finish in the top 10 uh oats out of the t43 at the PJ Championship pretty good form before that solo third at Wells Fargo T4 at the CJ cup uh he has had at least at times has had success at this course he finished uh back in 2018 he was a runner up here um at the memorial so and also I mean 11th in 2016 25th which is not bad in 2017 17th and in 2019 um and last year 24th so like he has had some pretty solid finish here we’re not asking him too much here to finish on the top 10 I’m not going to bet on him to win out right um and His short game at times has been pretty solid especially his putting uh especially at Wells Fargo gained a ton of Strokes putting so if he can kind of keep that putter hot then I think he he his name will at least be around the leaderboard heading into the weekend so uh plus 360 I like those odds and him to finish in the top 10 I love it as well I looked I worked really hard at B on uh didn’t find a place on my card for him but that doesn’t mean I don’t like the pick because I think if he’s on his game absolutely suits what you need at mfield Village yep all right moving on to top five which is uh the least surprising pick uh until I saw your pick to win as well so uh top five give it to me yeah we’re going with a you know guy I’ve never bet on once in my life before uh ludvig Oar um he’s back in the field after missing the cut at the PGA Championship and not playing since then obviously that’s due to the knee injury that he with Drew from the Wells Fargo with um yes I am worried about that yeah yes I do pick him a lot no I’m not going to change that because I think lud Vig is one of the best golfers in the world and I think a lot of courses on the PGA tour really suit his game uh his profile when I look at it it just it feels like a perfect fit for mirfield Village last 20 rounds this is what this is where he is statistically first in Strokes gained off the te six in Strokes gained approach first in Strokes gained putting on bent grass which is what we’re going to be putting on this week second on approach from 175 to 200 yards and second approaches from 200 to 225 yards 10th in par five scoring he literally checks the boxes of how you want to score at mirfield Village he also ranks pretty high on bogey avoidance the PGA Championship numbers kind of affect that a little bit but prior to the PGA Championship he was top 10 in that as well I think as long as the knee is not a problem which he’s taken three weeks off since the PGA Championship that would be the only concern I have I think he’s probably feeling a little bit better he is a younger guy so I’m hoping that helps him heal a little bit quicker if the knee’s not a problem he should absolutely be in the top five and at the top of the leaderboard at this tournament I I I’m I’m modow on him I mowed on him until he can prove that his knee is feeling the Mis cut of the PJ championship for a guy his talent level is concerning um the other thing I will say is his play around the greens has not been great losing Strokes in three of his last four starts around the greens which which would be a little bit concerning for me for mirfield Village as well I understand that I will tell you uh and this is a this is a little uh secret behind Cody’s handicapping I would say in 95% of golf tournaments I completely throw around the green out of the window I it just does not matter to me I mean it makes sense when you when you look at the the play the golfers who you bet on are all guys who stink around the greens so my the one thing and I think this has probably poisoned my brain to the point where I can’t like separate myself from it hardly ever but a lot of the thing one of the things I look at is you know if when you’re talking off the te when you’re talking approach when you’re talking putting those are three things you’re going to do on basically every single hole you play correct there’s a lot of times where you’re not going to see around the green play that is such a smaller sample size so the volatility and what those Strokes gain numbers means to me means a little bit less than it was what it does in those other categories now obviously like if you’re a huge loser in those categories yeah it’s probably not a great thing like you know you can make a double out of what should be an easy you know up and down par but I do think that there is something to that that it should not be weighed as heavily some of the other metrics all right fair enough um okay we’ll see um I’m G for my top five pick I’m betting on a guy who I mean and I think in golf betting generally what you kind of want to do a lot of the time is start betting on a guy when his odds are long but you’re seeing his form is kind of rounded uh into form a little bit and I think that’s what we’re getting with this guy this week so I’m gonna take a shot this is plus 850 to finish in the top five if I got the odds correct now that I’m saying that sounds long did I copy down the wrong odds no I no top yeah plus 850 Tom K I think now is a time I’ve been I’ve been not on Tom kame for a while I think now is a time to buy some stock in Tom Kim because when you look at five straight starts he’s improved t52 t47 t26 t24 and then T4 last week’s Canadian open uh all he gained Strokes in all four areas last week uh his approach game was starting to look to to look good I think now is the time to buy a little bit in on Tom Kim now maybe you don’t want to get as aggressive as I got with the top five finish and I also bet on him to win it like 70 to one um maybe just want to go top 10 or top 20 at a little bit shorter odds but I think in some form I think now is the right time I think we’re I think it’s a good time to buy low on Tom Kim is basically what I’m trying to say so that’s what I’m gonna do this week with the top five bet yeah you’re kind of stealing my thunder I kind of had him circled as a dark horse for next week Pinehurst uh because I think he’s a great fit there and I think the way his form is trending is setting up for a pretty good week at Pinehurst so I’m 100% with you on this yeah all right I I like that we agree uh you’re picked to win um yeah I argued with lud Vig um I’m not going to argue with this one so uh but it is just the most classic Cody betting card of all time for top five and pick to win yeah because your argument would be the exact same argument because he can’t his short game has been awful but uh it’s Victor havin the defending champion and uh I guess my uh my safety blanket I guess is probably like you know whenever I don’t know what to do just bet on Victor hlin and that’ll make everything good in the world uh obviously his start to the 2024 was just horrendous and a lot of that was attributed to him kind of doing some swing searching and he had split with his coach Joe mayo and everything looked like it was just falling apart for him well he got back together with Joe mayo and then he finished solo third at the PGA Championship gained more than 10.7 or 10.5 Strokes with his ball strike in seemed to find everything he had been missing and even when he was struggling his approach numbers from the key range of 175 to 225 still some of the best on the PGA tour that’s just where he thrives with his irons and that’s the range we’re going to see a lot this week obviously he knows how to have success in Memorial we saw it last year even though he had never necessarily had the success that his profile suggested he should have previously but I think we’re seeing him really I think he really found something to the PGA and he’s just had weeks a few weeks off now to work more with Jo mayo and really get back into those good swing Fields I think this is just going to be another week where Victor hlin is once again asserting himself as one of the best players in the PGA Tour and secret and kind of quietly he kind of needs this he is currently outside of the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings and so I think for him to kind of get this season back on track he needs a you know a strong summer and I think this is a great spot for him to start getting it going yeah one thing he has that you know lud Vic doesn’t have it is is kind of at least if you look at you know the most recent start is forums trending in the right direction where that’s kind of my my biggest issue with ludvig is just you know his performance the PJ championship in that knee so uh yeah defending champ you know game trending in the right direction for sure um as long as he can carry how he played from in the PJ Championship into this week then he’s he’s gonna be contention for sure yeah and he showed some positive signs that well Wells Fargo it wasn’t consistent finished t24 there but like he gained with the ball striking for the entire week and started to seem like he was trending a little bit and then it all came you know obviously came ahead at the PGA Championship yeah uh my pick to win um is a guy who I also bet on I tweeted this out I bet on him to win the US Open next week at 90 to1 which is still available at FanDuel by far the best odds so if you want to jump on that you can do it uh Corey Connor so I got him at 55 to1 this morning at DraftKings he’s down to 45 to1 I don’t know if there’s a 55 to1 still on the board uh but I got to take my fellow Canadian here in Corey Connor because his ball striking of late has been unbelievable uh three straight starts where he’s gaining significant Strokes ball striking where he’s like leading the field almost in ball striking but the big reason why I’m jumping on him now last week in the Canadian open when he finished solo six gained plus 1.73 true Strokes gain putting on the field and Cory Connor has always been that guy where you look at him and say hey if you could just sink a few putts you’d be winning almost every week last week he sunk a bunch of putts uh now maybe that’s an anomaly cuz you know with everyone kind of good putting weeks weeks just kind of happen randomly if it’s an anomaly then whatever but if that’s not an anomaly and he has figured something out on the greens he’s gonna win soon um might not be this week might not be next week um but he’s going to win soon because his ball striking numbers are out of this world last week he I mean he could have won but his uh his driving was strangely not great especially his accuracy he’s a little bit Wayward off the te which kind of ended up costing him that’s usually not an issue If he if he drove as well last week as he usually does I think he could have won um so I think everything is coming up Cory Connor uh in his style of play I think fits mirfield extremely well his play around the greens is a little bit sketchy at times uh which makes me a little bit nervous but he’s had some solid results at mirfield as well um I had that here somewhere yeah 13th here in 2022 uh which is a pretty solid finish so 55 to1 on a guy who not only is you know striking the ball uh at some of the best levels on the PJ tour but he might have found something with his putter as well so Cory Connor I mean it’s hard to argue with it especially like I see what you’re doing with like trying to capitalize on if he found something with that short game because his ball striking has never gone anywhere it’s never like the last tournament I just looked this up the last tournament that he lost Strokes ball striking was the Open Championship last year yeah it’s been almost a year since he lost ball uh Strokes ball striking and uh he only lost 0.12 in that tournament so like he’s not losing you know he wasn’t even losing a ton so if he finds something with that short game which has been abysmal for most of this year to be very clear but I do think that last week is a good sign hopefully it wasn’t just you know being home in Canada and being comfortable in the greens in Canada but at 55 to1 it’s really hard to argue with yeah uh yeah he has finished uh t13 or better now in three of his last four events uh t11 at zerich obviously that was a team event t13 Wells Fargo t26 PJ championship and then solo six last week so yeah um I don’t think that 55 to1 price is still available out there if it is jump on it but to be honest I don’t even really hate that 45 to1 no all right let’s move uh on and we’ll wrap up the show with this closest to the win uh where we each pick a golfer that’s at least 100 to one odds or longer to win uh and then uh the golfer between the two of ours that we picked that finishes further up the leaderboard or close to the win gets a point and at the end of the season uh the winner the loser has to pay for round a golf for the winner I’ve taken a commanding lead but last week got on the board uh so with Ryan Moore who did at least make the cut uh where where did he finish t60 baby t60 but all he had to do is make the cut because I was on David lipsky who did not make the cut so just by making the cut this was already decided by the weekend so you have closed the Gap 104 you still got a lot of work to do but uh 104 is better than 103 so you’ve taken one step uh in the right direction so your pick to win uh your close to the win pick this week is a guy who’s at 2 20 to1 that’s right it’s Lee Hodges I have no idea what is at 220 to one like yes he’s not a favorite by any stretch of the imagination but 220 to1 come on guys he finished T12 at the memorial last year his first time playing at this tournament and in his last three starts he has a pair of T12 finishes including a T12 at the PGA Championship and a t-24 at the Wells Fargo last 20 rounds he’s 17th in Strokes gain approach in this field and 12 and strokes gain putting putting over the last 16 rounds he doesn’t have the perfect profile he’s not the most accurate driver in the world but the way he’s playing on approach and the way he’s putting right now that’s obviously yielded some pretty good finishes and so I’m not really looking at the number I’m looking at the player and at 220 to one Lee hoders is I think mispriced and so I’m definitely gonna hop on that and especially for someone who finished in the top 15 last year all right um like I usually do with close to the win I’m not going to argue against it because it’s 220 to1 so um I like it I’m going to go with I picked a Canadian to win I’m going to go with for close to the one as well I’m going to go Adam hadwin who’s 150 to1 uh basically some pretty consistent results at mirfield Village is why I’m going to take him here t18 at this event in 2022 um but throw his history I mean he’s only missed the cut well three times but dating all the way back to 2015 uh t11 again in 2016 and Adam had one a lot like really a couple of the other Canadians it’s kind of hard to predict when he’s going to have a good event cuz he’ll randomly finish like in the top five and then you know do nothing for a month and then finish in the top five and then do nothing for a month so I guess I’m just going to hope that he’s going to you know have one of those uh blips where where he plays really well did not play well last week at the Canadian open uh but one of his biggest strengths is play around the greens uh which I think even though Cody you’re not a believer in Strokes gained around the greens I think it’s going to be big uh at mirfield Village this week and that seems to be his biggest strength at least uh this season but yes I mean T4 at the Genesis earlier this season which was a signature event T5 at the valpar um he he has T6 at the American Express I mean he randomly has like top five top 10 finishes so uh he’s gonna be my pick for close to the win no and I’m American Express you know that’s uh Tory Pines and uh Tory Pines has uh some pretty strong correlation to what we see at mfield Village so I I don’t hate it and like you said with Adam hadwin he is a he’s a tough guy to bet on because he is so you don’t see it coming he’s not a guy see it coming with whenever he has a strong finish yeah it’s not a guy where like he’s yeah his form just kind of gets good and then you kind of can kind of jump on at the right time it’s just randomly blips up out of nowhere it’ll finish in the top five so I’m hoping that’s one of these weeks so yeah 15 to1 close to the win out of pin yeah again hard to argue with especially at 150 to one yeah uh all right that is uh the Memorial tournament uh and then next week it’s the US open at Pinehurst uh EXC do you have any Futures locked in yet for for the US Open I have not locked anything in just yet I’m uh I want to I will probably put something down on Tom Kim if he plays well in the first round all I need is 18 more holes to see Tom Kim doing it but that’s someone who I have like you know a note jotted down beside right now I did have a Windham Clark future at one point but I cashed it out because he’s just noted him playing good at all um just abysmal at the PJ Championship so I I ended up just cashing that so now the only one is the one to place this morning which was at FanDuel 90 to1 which is at least the books I looked at by far the best price for Cory Connor’s uh next week I haven’t priced anything do you know what Bryson’s odds are because we’re talking about someone who now has two top six finishes in the first two majors of the year and can seemingly just attack any golf course he wants to yeah you probably missed out on that with him you know playing well at the PJ Championship 20 to1 seems to be the pretty consensus okay odds for him but I can stomach that it’s not know favorable but I can stomach that yeah um yeah interesting so that’s going to be next week uh just wonder what Tom Kim is at right now if he wanted to go that route a 55 to one I would have thought longer than that I definitely would have thought longer than that maybe I yeah uh oh well fand will have the best best prize for Cory Connors maybe they have the best priz for Tom Kim let me check that and then we’ll get over here 75 to one a FanDuel oh there we that we’re talking my language yeah that’s that’s what I want to see um all right that’s our show uh thank you all so much for watching subscribe to the bsid of YouTube channel um and we’ll be back uh for the US open at Pinehurst next week Cody do you have a final thought I can’t wait to go to Pinehurst you know that’s my uh my neck of the woods grew up in North Carolina so excited yeah excited to be back there I expect some winners next week then I don’t know if you know how this season has gone for me but uh that’s a that’s a tough ass all right all right goodbye everyone talk to y’all next week