Fantasy Football Risks! Players with the Lowest Floors for 2024 | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice

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Taking players in groups of three and debating who has the lowest floor. We start with Bijan Robinson/Jahmyr Gibbs/Jonathan Taylor (2:00). What do you need to know about their downside before you make your Round 1 selection? We also have some news and notes (9:02) as we discuss the new contract for Nico Collins … Most downside in these groups: C.J. Stroud/Kyler Murray/Anthony Richardson (12:45); Brock Purdy/Jayden Daniels/Justin Herbert (15:48); Garrett Wilson/Marvin Harrison Jr./Saquon Barkley (21:15); Nico Collins/Drake London/Josh Jacobs (26:20) … Finishing up with three more downside disputes: The Top 4 tight ends (31:35); Tank Dell/George Pickens/Calvin Ridley (36:15); DeVonta Smith/Tee Higgins/Cooper Kupp (41:02) … Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com

0:00 Intro

2:00 Bijan Robinson vs Jonathan Taylor vs Jahmyr Gibbs

9:02 News and Notes

12:45 CJ Stroud vs Kyler Murray vs Anthony Richardson

15:48 Brock Purdy vs Jayden Daniels vs Justin Herbert

21:15 Garrett Wilson vs Marvin Harrison Jr vs Saquon Barkley

26:20 Nico Collins vs Drake London vs Josh Jacobs

31:35 Sam LaPorta vs Travis Kelce vs Trey McBride vs Mark Andrews

36:15 Tank Dell vs George Pickens vs Calvin Ridley

41:02 DeVonta Smith vs Tee Higgins vs Cooper Kupp

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you are on the clock you’ve got a big decision to make you’ve narrowed it down to three players maybe at the same position maybe at different positions and you just don’t want a dud you don’t want one of those guys that’s that’s could be a total zero has a huge very low floor I guess I shouldn’t say a huge floor a low floor big downside we’re gonna do that today yesterday was upside today we’re going to look at three players and say who has the most downside with can you define downside please oh I love no thank you that wasn’t for you Heath that was for my other troll uh anyway uh we if I’m sorry guy if you need me to Define upside then what have you have you been paying attention over the last 10 years are you kidding yes all right anyway talking like a 75th percentile upside or a 90th percentile upside or you know what I forgot about I forgot about was the first guy one of the first guys we’re gonna talk about is beon Robinson forgot about one of the most disappointing fantasy performances of all time and that was 04 full PPR fantasy points negative half PPR and non PPR fantasy points for bejan Robinson in your fantasy playoffs week 15 against Carolina he had seven carries for 11 yards one catch for three yards and a fumble in this layup of a matchup talk about downside bej Robinson went out with a whimper in week 15 there and lost you your your fantasy playoff matchup which obviously didn’t happen for everybody but uh I forgot about that but let’s let’s start with our most downside you’re on the clock two running backs are off the board mcaffrey and Bree Hall and you’re going bejan jir Gibbs or Jonathan Taylor Dave who is the most downside in that group Bean jir Gibbs Jonathan Taylor I love all three of these guys I think all three of these guys are first round picks I’m I’m gonna say Taylor has the most downside of the three making the case for it simply because his quarterback runs could steal touchdowns away from him we don’t know what the passing offense will bring I don’t know if there’s necessarily uh enough there for more than one pass catcher to be good in Indianapolis but what if they do end up spreading the ball around and throwing more than we anticipate that would be bad for Jonathan Taylor who also kind of has an injury track record makes me a little nervous to rank him higher than I do but I I do feel like he’s got good upside as well I’m just trying to make the case for the downside yeah go ahead pick it up guys and and uh you know you know whoever wants to jump in there but yeah we’re gonna mostly do this and it’s fine if you want to qualify it but forget you know mostly non-injury to him and non- injury to other players on the team downside that’s more of an upside argument the other players on the team but but just assuming pretty much everyone stays healthy who has the most downside Heath you’re up um I’ll go with jir Gibbs just because I think it’s easiest to see him with the lowest touch total of this group and if the Lions go back to what they did with Jamal Williams or with Montgomery at the beginning of the year and it’s all one guy at the goal line because I don’t know Gibbs has like two or three times where he gets stuffed in a row and so we see Montgomery score all the touchdowns and still maintain his role in the rushing game and Gibbs is just kind of an okay rb2 all right Jamie what do you think who has the lowest floor bejon Gibbs or Taylor I agree with Dave that it’s Taylor but I’ll make the case for bejon Um Zack Robinson kept Arthur Smith’s Playbook and decides that Tyler Alger deserves more touches and wants to bench K cousins for uh not Michael penx Jr but Taylor Hani okay well I’ll make I mean I don’t really think it’s bejan either but the Rams now he’s got you know coming from the Rams system the Rams the last five seasons they’ve been 29th or lower in running back targets and beon had 50 he had how many catches did he have last year I don’t know 60-ish get a lot who you asking for beon beon catches I’ll tell you right now and then Taylor what if what if Taylor is the best trapback in the NFL what if he catches like 30 passes because Richardson’s not going to throw to his running backs and what if he loses a bunch of goal line touchdowns to Anthony Richardson is that I mean is that a spooky thought that’s actually realistic that Taylor just like doesn’t get enough high value touches I think 30 receptions is probably what you should expect you know I don’t I don’t think you should go on expecting him to be a 50 catch guy you know 40 would probably be where I’d bookmark it I don’t know what you have it at Heath from a projection standpoint but I mean yes he’s not going to see a lot of receptions if Anthony Richardson plays like we expect him to but I also think you trust that you know Shane Stein’s offense is going to be very good I think for a lot of people he’s a great play caller and I don’t think that Richardson’s necessarily going to steal every rushing touchdown from from Taylor uh or or majority of rushing touchdowns from Taylor to be honest with you I think that’s going to be Taylor’s role I’ve got him an exact way 30 he had 19 catches in 10 games last year yeah this that good which is like a pace yeah for just just about 30 uh a few unrelated notes really quickly we should probably address the elephant in the room uh some comments about Heath’s camera appears I like it yeah his good camera may have died right before the show started so he’s using his laptop camera which looks a lot better if you saw my laptop camera it’s much worse show I just I got a new laptop it is I’d done some shows if I’d been prepared for I would had some books underneath the laptop and it would be up at the higher level it’s okay just laugh at me it’s adding a little entertainment to your YouTube show today you want to see my the other camera yeah okay we have to see my my camera’s off to the side so we go back to the good one here um anyway yeah so we’re getting through that appreciate uh Heath hopping on with the camera issue uh two other unrelated notes the timber Wes are going to win the Western Conference Finals just want everyone to know that no NBA history that’ be interesting I was going to call it before game for but like they’ve been in every game with Carl Anthony towns being so bad they can absolutely can win they’re going to win they’re gonna be the first to ever do it just go just take it to seven games and then I I don’t care yeah exactly Che definitely cheering cheering for them in the next two I mean look whoever plays the Celtics obviously their star player is going to get hurt it’s just just so tired of this nonsense the Celtics play the entire playoffs without their second best player and we’re gonna talk about everybody else’s injuries the entire playoffs without porzingis what they play two games with him you say he their second best player yeah come on no no even I know that that’s not true I thought he played the whole Heat series maybe not I guess I thought he got hurt against caps uh anyway um oh uh the other thing is that the Panthers Rangers series is unbelievable has been incredible and I am now at the point where I am watching hockey over basketball sorry basketball even if it’s not a team I’m rooting for just you should be watching hockey over basketball you’re a Panthers fan you should well but but I was watching Edmonton Dallas over I guess I think that was on the same night as Boston Indiana so no chance you were watching hockey over the Knicks no God no no no certainly not the hockey the hockey is a better product than the basketball that’s what I would say I think I’ve said this for a few years now you mean two three series are not entertaining or three three series and or a sweep and a 31 series like what the pa I hate the Pacers thank you for whooping the Pacers I actually was rooting for Boston that’s how much I hate halberton all right uh a couple things here watch CBS Sports HQ you can follow all of these great sporting events all the developments around all the leagues and a lot of soccer too golf those types of things that you’re not going to hear me talking about uh check it out on CBS Sports HQ you can watch that on the CBS sports app um you watch it check it out on your smart TV all those things and if you are if your name is Jacob Cormier or Cormier or and your name is or your name is Kelsey I don’t know your last name well you are two of the four people who tied in the NFL draft podcast League contest we’ve been trying to reach out to you you’ve got maybe like another week and then we’re passing you by we’re trying to break the tie so Jacob Kelsey respond to the emails that Thomas and I have sent you and let’s make this happen we’ll be right back with now let’s do news and notes real quick Houston signed Nico Collins to a three-year deal 72 almost $73 million it’s an extension and 52 million guaranteed Dave says wow Nico Collins gets a new deal he was great last year but it’s his only year of playing well they just added saan digs did they need to extend him like what what happened here digs is a one-year rental that much money right now yeah Diggs is a one-year rental because contract he is he defin a one rental they’re not paying him now who Diggs no it would be after this year but I’m not ready to say that he’s one and done in Houston it’s not a lot of produ that’s why they restructured his deal well it’s not a lot of could keep them after this year they could resign them they certainly can but I don’t think that’s what they did to do it that’s why they did it I think they tried to motivate him so he’s not a distraction okay for Nico though to be making about $24 million a year with one good season it’s pretty eye- openening extension yeah does it tell you I obviously it tells you how they feel about him doesn’t change anything from your it change change his dynasty value yeah yeah you know that he’s locked in with CJ strout for the next three years and you know between him and tank Dell it’s a pretty damn good situation for CJ strout was there doubt about that about Nico yeah I mean was a free AG after next year okay 24 million a year is equal to DK meaf it’s a million behind Devonte Smith it’s top 10 in the NFL I mean it certainly wants uh you know if you’re T Higgins and Jamar Chase and CD lamb and all these guys Justin Jefferson you’re like where where’s my deal right no kid yeah and if you’re T Higgins and Jamar Chaser where’s my where’s my OTAs they’re not there they have not shown up uh also two offseason additions for the Bengals defense tackle Sheldon rankins offensive tackle Trent Brown they are not there these are voluntary OTAs but they’re missing some key players and buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady said that they are gonna be running Josh Allen’s offense so duh yeah he’s got making it clear it’s still gonna run through Josh Allen yeah he’s gotta take the ball from the center and give it to the running back okay most downside CJ strad Kyler Murray Anthony Richardson we will get to that after a short break right now on fantasy football today my primary function is to create balance and avoid a war there’s some new players in town and they brought the plague why are you back cuz I missed you when I act I do so with purpose you got my attention you don’t want that what Happ to Kingston holy moly of all the YouTube ads that we have aired that’s the most exciting one I didn’t know we were getting a new season of Mayor of kingtown on Paramount plus that that show was amazing it is amazing I thought I’d seen that ad like six times but yes I’m very excited about it I I had no idea that is terrific news Okay so three quarterbacks uh we talked about a couple them yesterday on the upside episode but who’s got the most downside CJ strad Kyler Murray or Anthony Richardson Richardson Jamie I’m gonna let you start CJ strad Kyler Murray or Anthony Richardson who has the most downside I mean I think it’s obviously Richardson just based on the small sample size that we have that he’s going to let people down because he doesn’t play at that level that we saw in the you know two healthy games but even the games where he was just out there he was amazing and looks the part of being a great fantasy quarterback but you have the injury concern I know you don’t want to talk injuries but you know he’s he’s clearly got to be mentioned along with Kyler you know for what they suffered last or the last over the last two seasons but um if Richardson does not take a step forward as a passer and we’re only relying on his rushing then I don’t think he’s going to become a potential top five quarterback he could still be a top 10 guy but I think that’s where the let down will come if he doesn’t continue to you know improve as a passer based on what he showed during his collegiate career so for me it’s Richardson but I think he also has the most upside of this group as well we talked about that on the upside show and it makes perfect sense and that’s why I’ve got him ranked High I think maybe one or both of you have him ranked higher than I do um and he’ll get drafted ahead of other players who I do have ranked ahead of Richardson so I get the upside case for him but it’s based on projection and I think that we could say that Kyler Murray’s ranking is also based on projection the fact that he’s got Marvin Harrison to throw to well what if Marvin Harrison isn’t amazing what if he’s just good does that mean that Kyler Murray is going to be what he’s been on on an average the past two seasons which is under 21 fantasy points per game I would say if we throw out injury or massive regression and throwing for Richardson than uh then Murray is the one that’s got the lowest upside the most downside but I still think he can be good as a starter for Fantasy even with that downside baked in I don’t have that much else to say I think it’s clearly Richardson okay Jamie made the richson case well I can’t make the case for stad um so it’s it’s riches does strad have the most downside in a four-point per passing touchdown League I don’t think so nope Richardson but I would say he does I mean you know you saw last year and again you know injuries played a big part in that with tank Dell getting hurt and then shroud getting banged up toward the end of the season but I mean what if Diggs still stinks you know like he’s not this you know significant addition and they have I I know we can sit here and say the the flaws of Joe Mixon what if the Run game is better you know and they decide that they want to run the ball a little bit more this is still you know a defensive head coach and so while Bobby slowick is is certainly in charge of the offense if they decide they want to reign in CJ strad a little bit because some of the receivers are are not producing we could see that in strad having a down second year in that format you know where it’s four points for passing touchdowns and minus two for interceptions he was he was pretty Flawless for the majority of the season in terms of turnovers but if he to get a little bit more turnover PR because one of his receivers digs is chirping then you know we could see some some flaws there okay all right most downside quarterbacks you might be taking later in the draft Brock pie Jaden Daniels Justin Herbert who has the most downside Brock pie Jaden Daniels or Justin Herbert Herbert Herbert Daniels oh go ahead Jamie Daniels has more downside than Justin Herbert and Brock pie we don’t really Brock P seems pretty safe at this point you could say uh but why do you think Daniels has more downside than Herbert well I mean just because of the unknown you know I mean you’re still talking about a rookie quarterback that while we hope he’s going to run at a very high level and should run at a very high level and I think is the most upside of this group as well I mean if he struggles and gets turnover prone and you know doesn’t have the the production with his legs then he could be awful here’s what’s known about Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman when they’ve either coached together or separately and what their offenses are as far as passing goes there’s 10 years a date on this once in 10 years has a quarterback had 30 or more touchdowns when one of them has been coaching in the case of Roman calling plays twice in those 10 years has a quarterback had over 25 touchdowns in it it just it without rushing which Justin Herbert doesn’t have comparatively to other quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson or even Colin Kaepernick I I think he’s going to need to have one of the most efficient years passing and still figure out a way to average two passing touchdowns per game in order to come through and what’s gonna happen when they get near the goal line in La this year is it GNA be Justin Herbert throwing to the tight ends or to the receivers I I think it’s G to be runs and they they talked about how adding Joe alt is an offensive weapon and that he is a huge part of what they want to do and they love their offensive line they’re going to lean on that and it’s not going to be just at the goal line it’s going to be all over the field I Justin Herbert as a talent when I talked to him it’s now two years ago and I asked him about you know why should people take you as the number one quarterback in fantasy he said honestly I I don’t think they should because stats don’t matter to me wins are what matters to me and I I think he’s gonna back that up this year the quarterbacks under this coaching staff have backed that up they win a lot they don’t get a lot of fantasy points even with the unknown with jayen Daniels I’m gonna say Herbert has a lower four who who are the quarterbacks that were in those 10 years it’s Alex Smith for a year it’s Colin Kaepernick for three years in Buffalo I think it was trod Taylor out to double check and Lamar in Baltimore so it’s never been uh throwing Talent like this it’s never been a throwing Talent on the level of Justin Herbert I will give you that that’s the interesting thing though is like I feel pretty strongly that if we take away seven pass attempts per game from Herbert like I think they’re going to his efficiency should go up but there’s a a risk that he throws 32 pass as a game and has the same efficiency because I do think he’s really talented but a lot of his counting stats have just been been because he throws 700 passes he averages seven seven and a half yards per attempt he’s got a four and a half% touchdown rate if he does that with 30 32 pass attempts he’s Derek Carr for Fantasy yikes um and he might make everybody who passes on him look like an idiot just based on the early season schedule Las Vegas to open the year at Carolina those are his first two games and then he’s got some matchups where down the line high scoring you know Kansas City twice Arizona’s on the schedule a lot of offenses with a lot of Firepower he might have to throw in those games but I still worry about just the play calling being conservative Herbert 32 pass attempts per game I don’t know what he was averaging exactly uh under prior offensive coordinators but 39 to 4 higher than 32 per game yeah a lot higher 39 to 40 if he doesn’t get get two touchdowns in a game think about what he has to put up otherwise it’s got to be like 350 yards he can’t have any turnovers maybe he runs for 10 or 20 yards or something like that but I he makes me nervous as far as the upside case goes and that means that there’s a lot of downside okay does he does he have a do they have a good running game though I mean they’re not gonna have a good running game from their quarterback really that like they have with with all the other guys that you mentioned except for Alex Smith and yeah I mean they they might I just look at this Chargers roster I don’t even know where the talent is you know it’s the it’s not it’s not the pass catchers it’s Justin Herbert I mean he’s their best player by far for sure that’s why I don’t think that you guys think they’re making the playoffs if I recall I think I brought this up I don’t remember who was on the show I think they’re I think they’re bad on paper I think they have a bad roster I think I mean um a lot to be desired but they do have Herbert and they’ve got like hopefully a couple studs on defense and they have hard ball should keep them afloat around 500 I’m kind of veering into another conversation here but I mean you know it’s not hard to be the second best team in that division because you know the Raiders have quarterback issues and and and still some you know unknowns with their coaching staff obviously the Broncos are in rebuild mode and so while the Chiefs are the class of the AFC West you know the the Chargers don’t have far to go to be second and to be second in that division could put them in the Wild Card race so yeah they’re they’ll be in it the Wild Card race all right Garrett Wilson so now we’re up we’re uh maybe into round two late round one Garrett Wilson’s on the board Marvin Harrison is on the board and saquan Barkley is on the board who has the most downside most I guess I would say Bust potential here most downside between Garrett Wilson Marvin Harrison and saquan Barkley Harris kind of easy to take the rookie here no yeah the case for Barkley I mean I I feel like for me everyone that has the most downside also has the most upside like J Danel has the most upside of the previous Trio but also the most down sure sure I I’ll say like Barkley could just like catch 40 or 45 passes and Jaylen Herz could rush for 15 touchdowns again and Barkley could be a a bust at his current ADP I I just I have a hard time believing Marvin Harrison’s not going to catch a 100 passes unless he gets hurt yeah I I kind of agree I thought it would it would be Barkley here uh you know I’m I would take Harrison over Barkley wouldn’t you guys take Harrison over Barkley or would it depend on your first pick yes I would take Harris no Barkley but I also think again we’re we’re asking a rookie wide receiver to come in and be dominant right away and it hasn’t always been the first receiver draft at that’s been the best we’re also asking Kyler Murray to you know support a receiver to this level which he really hasn’t done consistently over the course of his career and he’s only really had one so you can you know make the case that you know what he did with Hopkins the One season was was pretty special but um McBride is gonna steal targets and be a big part of this offense and I think the other pieces are gonna you know still be involved it’s not like really right I mean he he’s walking into a pretty damn good situation he’s walking into a great situation but I mean there’s still there’s still the potential for failure you know and and and by failure doesn’t necessarily mean complete bust but it might be you know just not being this dominant force that we’re expect him to be I mean again I’m taking him first uh I’m taking Wilson ahead of Harrison yeah but yes I’m taking Harrison ahead of saquan right yeah I’m not there yet I I I recognize that Harrison was dominant in college and I also recognize that he’s got a shot at eight to nine targets per game just Kyler Murray’s track record with the number one receiver is he gonna will he be as explosive against NFL level competition as he was in college that’s the question for Harrison because the NIT picks on Harrison and these are small is that he just didn’t have top end speed he didn’t have speed like Malik neighbors he didn’t have physicality like other receivers in the draft class the volume is going to be what carries him but if it’s a 100 catches and somehow it’s only 12 yards per catch and he only gets six or seven touchdowns it’s it’s a good year does that mean he’s going to be top five good I’m not sure where that would rank compared to other wide receivers it’s going to be up there for sure but Barkley still has upside because what if Barkley’s there to take the tush push and and simmer it down and now he’s scoring more touchdowns or the Eagles are able to change it up at the goal line Barkley can still catch pass philadel so there there’s a potential for the running back to still score double digits touchdowns there I and I think look for Garrett Wilson you know I know we’re not again factoring in injuries but his quarterback is coming off an injury you know with at 40 years old so you know we’re we’re we’re counting on um Mr modest Aaron Rogers to you know be great once again and what if he’s not you know and they have a pretty good running back that could be the focal point of the offense and they added some pieces in the receiving Corp and so you know it might not be the Garrett Wilson show that we’re hoping for how many targets per game Heath you can answer this one if you’ve got it available how many targets per game are we expecting from Garrett Wilson this year this year I am expecting 10 wow he was at 9.9 last year which was yeah I’m just under I got 165 or something so so that’s like that’s right there basically the same yeah that’s great 10 wow he was at 9.9 last year no I’m just saying I I wasn’t expecting Heath’s projection to be as high because they’ve got you know because they ran the ball well last year and maybe they want to take a little bit of pressure off of Rogers and maybe that means that they’re not throwing it 40 times a game yeah well I feel like Rogers is not typically a high pass attempt guy but yeah he throws the ball 32 times a game and 10 of them go to Devonte Adams or 10 of them go to Garrett Wilson yeah well I mean in in Damonte Adams last season in Green Bay he had 169 Targets in only 16 games okay let’s uh let’s move on to our next one I’m going to give you two wide receivers and one running back who has the most downside the lowest floor Nico Collins Drake London Josh Jacobs Nico Collins Drake London Josh Jacobs I’ll say Dr Drake lendon because I think if he could just do what he’s done that would be a lower floor than the other two guys yeah I just I doesn’t take a step forward I don’t love that argument because even if he’s averaging seven targets per game which is where he was basically at the first years of his career you’ve got to figure that the throws are going to be better and maybe even more downfield with cousins compared to the other quarterbacks that he was going with I I kind of feel I I love Jacobs and I think he’s in a great spot and I’ve talked him up as a guy who I think can average 50 PPR points per game but I think he’s got some downside too I’m a little I can’t say I’m nervous about him but I could recognize that that Green Bay could be a team that leans more on love and there will be games where love just takes control of the offense and he’s been successful with it so are you’re voting for Jacobs here I’ll vote for Jacobs is the one with the most downside all right Nico London Jacobs we have a vote for London we have a vote for Jacobs Jamie what do you got I mean you can make a strong case for all three of these guys you know and and I’ll make the case for London just because I think they’ve done a good job of the other two for me Jacobs has the most downside uh but Collins clearly I mean you know you’re asking him to you know do what he did again last year with a healthy tankel back who was you know really starting to come on before the leg injury and now the addition of Stefan digs and Dalton Schultz is still there and and you know again a better running back in my opinion and Joe Mixon so you know if if Collins does not perform at the level that most people are expecting him to and he’s going to be the first Texans receiver drafted then you could be clearly disappointed so um of these three I draft them London Collins Jacobs but uh London to me is is the one you know most upside but probably the most downside as as Heath said in terms of you know not having done this before but you know I I’ll I’ll take uh I’ll take London first yeah and Collins last year in the seven games that both tank Dale and Nico Collins played more than 50% of the snaps Collins averaged 7.4 targets per game so throw Stefon Diggs in the mix now that’s that’s a big downside argument you know Jamie just talked about I just wanted to give that number there because dve unless Stefon digs is just Noah Brown you know which he could be yeah but that like that 7.4 is still more than than we’ve seen Drake Glendon receive right but now that was without dicks that was just Nico and Dell so I just wanted to because 7.4 was Dave said London was around seven per game so yeah I thought it was relevant to bring that up there did you know that Collins targets per game went down down without Dell there were five games without Dell and with CJ Str and it was at 7.0 oh W that’s the number I would use for Nico this year yeah Nico did a lot of things that are not repeatable in ter just he just had an unbelievable season yards per Target yak all that stuff and targets could be hard to come by some weeks uh so what exactly is the downside for Josh Jacobs Dave the downside is that Green Bay’s offense will have more games than not where they don’t lean on him why because they’ve got Jordan love and they make him the focal point I don’t think J I don’t think there is necessarily a focal point of the Packers offense I think they can beat you with the run or the pass but I think push comes to shove I think they like what they’ve got and Jordan love and I would imagine that as long as as long as he plays like he did to end last season no reason in the world to believe that they wouldn’t lean on him in competitive games in the second half of competitive games this year yeah I don’t worry about that at all when it comes to Jacobs I worry about Marshon Lloyd and him being better that’s another Factor sure better than AJ Dylan and and a better compliment to what they’ve had the last couple of years because you know Jacobs is going to be the leading rusher and this is going to be an offense that scores a lot of points and so he’s still going to be a very good fantasy option I don’t think he’s going to be as involved in the passing game which I think is gonna hurt him so um you’re GNA rely on him as a runner and a touchdown producer he’ll he’ll he’ll do enough in the passing game but just not I think where we’ve seen him at his best which was in the Josh McDaniels tenure um but I do think that Lloyd is going to be a factor and Dylan from whatever reason unfortunately still going to be a factor as well so I think it’s more of a crowded backfield than people should anticipate okay but I I don’t think Jordan loves Ascension and the passing game improving is going to hurt Josh Jacobs I think they’re going to be very good at moving the football and that will help Jacobs I think that could take attempts away from Josh Jacobs yeah I disagree okay let’s take a break here when we’ll come back we’ll talk about the top four tight ends who’s got the most downside the lowest among the top four tight ends then we’ll have a couple more wide receiver ones and then we’ll send you on your Merry way to enjoy your Wednesday we’ll be right back on fantasy football today women have power use it you need to send a message I never should have sent a boy to do a woman’s job the shy new episode now streaming visit Paramount plus.com theey to get 50% off Jamie made headlines yesterday blew me away when he said that Sam leaport has more upside than Travis Kelce I couldn’t believe it well now we can talk about who has more downside leaport Kelce who’s gonna be 35 in October McBride and Andrews who has the most downside four top four tight ends Le pora Kelce McBride and Andrews Dave Richard I’m gonna let you start who has the most downside I will reluctantly say Trey McBride okay I would also say Trey McBride if Marvin Harrison comes in and earns 10 plus targets a game and McBride doesn’t see his efficiency Spike from last year then he could be like a poor man Zan Ingram Jamie I agree it’s MCB not really he didn’t win the upside argument yesterday and he’s losing the downside argument I’m not really seeing a lot of reason for me to draft Trey McBride right now guys well well I mean you’re comparing him to three pretty good players it’s like yeah you know yeah it it’s a small sample size of what he did when Zack Herz was gone and part of that was with Kyler Murray back but he was you know in the range of of what the top tier guys was at over 14 PPR points per game during that time but now you’re adding Harrison you know again you’re you’re bringing in Z Jones for what that’s worth uh hopefully a better Michael Wilson Greg dorch is still gonna be there you know James Conor Trey Benson the Run game should be you know successful and obviously Kyler’s going to run uh as well so you know Andrews prior to his injury you know you you can AER stat the the um Bengals game when he got hurt he was on Pace for over 14 PPR points per game you know what Kelsey was even a down year still very good and leapa is ascending in his second season based on what he showed as a rookie so McBride just makes the most sense I I guess I should say I’m not seeing a lot of reason to draft him higher than fourth he’s fourth for me I think he loses the downside argument against cancade no I don’t agree with that at all uh yeah like I said for me he’s he’s closer to con than he is to the top three right and so if if you had to say which one has more upside full PPR I I would lean toward Kim Kade because he’s got a shot to be the number one guy in Josh Allen’s offense and bu yes I see what you’re saying there there is a better case to be made for concade than there is for mcre eth do you see it differently uh yeah well I don’t have concade as my fifth tight end I think like we’re we’re again this is another one of those situations where Dalton con Kade could have a breakout season and improve on everything he did last year and be a bust um because we’ve really pumped him up based on where he was like the downside for Dalton cancade is that he’s still seeing a similar share of the targets and Dawson Knox is handling a lot of the taking away a lot of the Red Zone work from him like I think dton con kad’s downside is tight end 14 well Dave I think when you said you were making the case for concade against McBride it felt like you were making more of an upside case yeah but this is a downside with the downside theme who has more downside in your opinion TG a game for King Kade yeah King well who has the lower floor K Kade or McBride King Kade I guess we saw it last year there were seven games with Joe Brady canade averaged 5.7 targets per game and eight PPR points per game even I if if Trey McBride were getting 5.7 targets per game which I I don’t think that’ll even be the number even if Marvin Harrison’s a rocket ship and McBride is second fiddle there I think I think McBride can be a little bit better than eight PPR points per game so you know what I see Heath’s point maybe there is a little bit more downside with King Kade than there is with McBride but they would both be low-end top 15ish type of fantasy tight ends if that were to happen the the thing I think that’s interesting is what the target share is for McBride and what the projection would be with Harrison if that’s fair way to present it versus what conc kad’s Target shair was whens right Knox when Knox and Gabe Davis were out well I gotta I I’m coming off too negative on McBride I I like McBride he may not have that huge upside he may have some more downside compared to Kelsey leaport and Andrews but that could be more of just a statement about Kelsey leapor and Andrews than a knock on McBride so I I don’t want to leave it I don’t want to leave that a nowh where it sounds like I’m trashing Trey McBride the guy’s really good and should definitely be top two on his team and targets and who knows maybe maybe we’re overrating Harrison and mcbrides got more upside than we think Pickins and Calvin Ridley who has the lowest floor here tank Dell George Pickins or Calvin Ridley for me it’s Ridley I think think it’s probably Ridley um because he like you can parse last year from him in different ways but I think he looked better later in the year than he did earlier in the year and some of that stuff with the touchdown seemed like rust and bad luck but if he’s really just slightly above average as a wide receiver and will Levis is terrible then like the the whole offense could just be awful he could end up averaging below 12 PPR points per game which which would be pretty gross for Calvin Ridley he was at 13.5 last year with Trevor and that was a bad year for Ridley you know he had a lot of targets he had a ton of opportunities he should have had better numbers I I worry I love tank dell man and I love that he and CJ strad seem to be on the same page their timing was great when they played last year but I I feel like the target crunch is going to hit him the most in the nine games that he played with stad and niik he was averaging almost s targets per game it was 6.8 I got a hard time believing that tankel is gonna have that type of Target volume from week to week with Diggs now there so I I I just I don’t like Ridley’s situation and so maybe I’ll lean a step in that direction compared to tank Dell but I I could see the case for tank Dell as well put me down for Ridley very close between him and tankel all right yeah I mean Ridley may not be the best receiver on his team you know I know DeAndre Hopkins seemingly lost a step but he’s got a rapport established with Will Lis already Tyler Boyd is going to be I think more of a factor than we anticipate he’s got a rapport with Brian Callahan coming in from Cincinnati so he’s going to know the offense a little bit better than his teammates at least what Callahan wants to do and you know a proven guy and Ridley’s the oldest of this Trio by a significant margin you know and so was last year the start of him starting to slip maybe you know so it’s it’s a crowded receiving core so I don’t really think that matters when you’re comparing him to tank Dell and again I I I just think the upside favors the other two guys by a significant margin right but the it’s the downside that but that’s the part of it though is that he’s got the most downside of that right do you think that maybe Ridley is the least big play dependent in this group and Pickins and Pickins is a guy that in two seasons in his career he has 14 Red Zone Targets in two seasons seven green zone targets 11 Endzone targets he has two touchdowns in his career that are from inside of 22 yards and he has only nine touchdowns in his career George Pickins so I mean I’m pretty you excited about Pickins but that part I don’t love about him he’s not so far has not been a Red Zone guy I don’t think his team has had a lot of Red Zone targets either though like they 29 touchdown passes or something the last two years it’s true but that I mean that’s is really really low uh and most of his touchdowns are big plays I mean seven of his nine touchdowns are 22 or more yards and then it’s you know even 40 or more yards got a bunch of those so I don’t I’m a little scarred by Jaylen waddle I guess uh who was pretty big play dependent a big play machine in his set no you gotta you gotta get J you gotta get Jaylen wle AER sted like quickly I’ve oh I I’ve AER sted the heck out of Jaylen Wat he was the same guy last year he just left a bunch of games injured 15.2 fantasy points per game to 15.6 fantasy points per game in games that he was healthy I mean pins was a big play threat guy with with two quarterbacks now that will make big plays and what he did without Deontay Johnson last year was a pretty telling situation you’re not AER you’re not AER you’re not correctly AER stating Jaylen W because he was even better than that the year before because remember Tua missed a lot of games and he was horrible without Tua and that hurt him he was not nearly as good as he was last year the big plays were just not there that was the thing he just he didn’t make nearly as many Splash plays and you have I don’t think he was 100% all year he wasn’t but you do have to be I think a little bit nervous about guys that are so reliant on big plays and that is George Pickins it has been Pickins I don’t think it will be the same case moving forward good meither all right Devonte Smith T Higgins Cooper cup is our last one Devonte Smith T Higgins and Cooper Cup who has the most downside I do want to give a stat about Cooper cup he comes uh he comes off of well he misses the first four games his first two games he has 118 and 148 yards and then his last 11 games including the playoffs Cooper cup averaged 45.3 yards per game and six yards per Target yuck uh so Devonte Smith T Higgins Cooper cup Heath I’ll let you start who has the most before before Heath answers I know we’re not ing injury are we assuming T Higgins is playing week one yeah let’s just put him on the Bengals everything’s peachy keen okay oh I didn’t answer I answered T Higgins because I didn’t know which imaginary universe that we were in but I don’t think everything’s pichy keing and this is a guy that when he’s been okay with his contract he comes out of like 40% of the games that he plays he see it seems like so I I have real I think there’s it’s fair if we get to July with both of these situations still hanging overhead to start having some questions just about if things are going to be okay in Cincinnati this year but I’ve got I’ve got real worries about Higgins because the Bengals seem much more likely to just take care of Chase and leave Higgins where he’s at okay that’s fair why don’t you give me two answers then let’s do the T Higgins got a contract extension before the season and that probably say Devonte Smith okay I mean we also make the argument that t Higgins is going to be focused on putting up the best numbers of his career because he knows he’s in a contract year and he’s going to be a free agent he wants to be paid like Nico Collins plus you could you just did it was a good argument I think I think if everybody’s situation is perfect where there’s no injuries uh to them their teammates Etc I’m I’m going to say Smith has the most downside and we’ve seen it for Smith over the last two seasons when AJ Brown and Goddard are healthy he’s averaging around 12 PPR points per game when they’re out it’s like 20 especially Godard he’s been the key when goddard’s been out man Devonte Smith’s been amazing but I I think that if everybody’s healthy I think T Higgins can beat that I think he can beat 12 PPR points per game I’m gonna use the same argument that Dave gave for Smith for cup because we saw last year with somebody that was maybe better than him and his numbers cratered to what Adam gave us you know how healthy was he we don’t know but when there was finally somebody of significant competition and I don’t think Robert Woods at the end of his Rams tenure was as good as puka last year I think that goes without saying fair so you know the the upgrade over the number one receiver I think is there and so you know has has puka surpassed cup as the go-to guy for Matthew Stafford I think that’s the case we’ll find out if that’s proven or not but if that is the case then while Smith might third and you make case Smith might be fourth now with the addition of Barkley there you know so Brown gard and and Barkley might be in better standing than than Smith is from a touch standpoint when you factor in everything including Barkley’s rle in the passing game that even cup in the second role on this Rams offense or even the third role you know with what they do at their running backs then it could be worse for him so I’ll take cup at his age as the as the one with the most downside assuming Higgins is right so that we basically got got a vote for each of them and then sort of an amended Devonte Smith vote for Heath on the other on the T Higgins contract extension scenario it is really amazing how much of an impact Dallas Godard has had on Devonte Smith’s targets uh it’s just surprising almost three games Dave alluded to it I mean three games he played Without Dallas GD he faced the Chiefs the bills and the ners wasn’t exactly the easiest competition and Devonte Smith had eight or more targets 96 or more yards in all three games he scored two touchdowns and with Gard weeks one through nine and 14 through 17 he was on Pace for 111 targets it’s not going to get it done if Barkley is close to Peak Barkley how do you defend the Eagles out try to outscore them probably a lot of Zone uh Barkley yeah I mean Barkley we didn’t talk about I didn’t bring this stat up I’ve said it before but is he Peak Barkley can he can he still be Peak Barkley he had seven carries of 40 or more yards as a rookie he has six in the last five seasons since then he hasn’t been Peak Barkley since his rookie year yeah I mean he’s going to have you know maybe not 40 yard runs but he’s going to have a lot of just wide holes open for him with that offensive line that he hasn’t had in years maybe ever oh yeah much better they’re they’re scary and they’ll win the division is the Dallas obviously not going to win the division no team ever wins it back toback it’s been 20 years since teams won in consecutive years something like that so Eagles in the playoffs all right guys thank you very much League neighbors has a lot of appeal for the Giants I think the commanders are a sneaky very sneaky team they agreed much scarier than the Giants for sure well both those teams added some good veterans but Washington seemed to add more of them that makes me feel a little bit better about their overall defense I think you could put those two teams together and they wouldn’t be a threat to the Eagles you know I’ve already rehearsed in my head the here’s why the Giants might be good conversation I’m not gonna have it now but I’m ready to have it so you know I assume that’s how you go to sleep each night it is surprising for you that you think the Giants will be good it could sleep I don’t think they will I don’t think they will but they could I’ll just say this they could have three pro bowlers on their defensive line and you when you have that you you could surprise people and a Pro Bowl quarterback Drew luck yeah and a Pro Bowl wide receiver all okay everybody you see the Jets having a running back oh that they needed that uh who is there new running back uh Tariq Cohen is now a jet oh you agree with this comment imagine if Adam was a Cowboys fan the show would be unbearable I mean is it any worse than the Giants love Yeah Cowboys fans are just brutal come on we all know that Giants they have something positive like sometimes their team is good with you it’s just like we everybody just laughs about it but it’d be unbearable imagine if like one of us was a fan of a really good team and just smug about it sometimes the Giants win the Super Bowl the cowboy most of the Cowboys fans listening to this podcast don’t even know what that experience is like all right we’re out of here we’ll talk to you tomorrow with regression candidates in 2024 and sorry Cowboys fans please don’t listen to other podcasts I love you we’ll talk to you like I’m all go rooting for the stars go Stars see you