On Today’s episode of the PrizePicks Prop Show, FTN’s Alex Blickle (@AlexBlickle1) highlights the best MLB PrizePicks Picks of the day and Underdog Picks of the day, and how to use the new Pick ‘Em Tool to combine them into the best possible plays.
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what’s going on everybody Welcome in to this Thursday edition of the prize picks pick show we’ve got baseball today we’ve got NBA games but I’m not sure I’ve got any NBA picks we’ll take a look through the tools see if we can find anything we like there’s one that I’m looking for that I’m hoping they’ll add so we can take a look at that for sure but plenty of baseball to talk about here so as is always the case now if you’ve got questions please please please ask away in this live YouTube chat particularly interested in in seeing some questions like hey maybe you you really like the correlation in theory behind two guys and you want to know exactly how well it correlates we can we can look at that kind of thing if you just want to hear about a specific play maybe you have questions about some PGA plays that are available today whatever you want to ask about please go ahead drop into the YouTube chat it really helps out the show that being said let’s jump right into to today and we’re going to start with Paddock more than 25 and a half fantasy points you can see this is at the very top of the board here in our tool and man he’s just throwing the ball pretty well basketball’s working the change up really really working fairly decent match match up with Kansas City but this is really just all about the actual line itself 25 a half really really low I think 27 a half is probably where this line should be uh anywhere between 27 and a half and 29 and a half we talk about these like really important numbers 24 27 30 those are the key numbers because they land on full Innings pitched it’s it’s much more likely that a guy is taken out after five complete Innings or six complete Innings than five in a third five and 2/3 Etc things of that nature so we’ve got this at 64.3% not a whole lot to add to this just think it’s a strong play and the exact same thing can be said for Zach gallon more than 31 and a half fantasy points in fact with gallon I would say this is probably an underestimate the Mets are an absolute mess gallon is somebody that I think we have a tendency to under project because so much of what we’re doing is we’re looking at velocity spin rate things of that nature and the one thing that might be undervalued is an extreme ability to locate Zach gallon has outstanding command so much of command by the way is picked up in some of the other stats that we use like call strike plus whiff rate so it’s not like we’re ignoring location ability and command it’s just when a pitcher is Elite in that regard Zach Gallen Aaron Nola George Kirby those are the guys that we might underestimate on a fairly routine basis and it’s only a small underestimation but it could mean that the 63.7% is more like 66 or 67% so I really like gallon here then there’s also a it’s almost impossible to model team Vibes and right now the Mets Vibes are atrocious I don’t know if you saw the Jorge Lopez uh highlights from last night but if you haven’t I recommend doing so uh there was a they’re down like 83 late or 93 something like that Lopez throws a slider down guy checks his swing looks like he actually checked his swing the third base up says he checked his swing Jorge Lopez yells at the UMP gets himself tossed as he’s walking off he throws his glove up over the net into the stands ends up getting demoted to Triple A the Mets are an absolute mess it is hilarious to watch in any case z gallon 31 and a half fantasy points more than 31 and a half fantasy points I should say also I believe to be a fantastic play here and then we’re going to go to another one the tool absolutely loves Logan Gilbert less than five and a half strikeouts let’s go ahead to the K department and let’s take a look at this one he’s at five and a half we have him projected for 4.78 Gilbert has fantastic stuff there’s a really hard fast ball but he loves that fast ball because he loves this fastball so much he tends to be a guy who succeeds based on the quality of contact that he allows more so than getting swings and misses think that nature so he’s already not a great strikeout pitcher at least not as good as you would expect given how good his stuff is but then he’s also facing Houston who’s dead last in the majors in strikeout rate so 67% here on this less than five and a half strikeout prop again I don’t have a ton to add to it I just think it’s really solid I think it’s a solid projection and we’re looking at a plus 60% win likelihood fantastic stuff there and then then we’re going to start to get into the the picks that I find the most fun on prize fix here because we can correlate so much so Jameson tyion less than 17 and a half outs let’s go to the outs department and we’re gonna find tyion here oh he actually came up a little bit in our projection so this is going to be interesting to see if this is still really solid oh actually what happened is he already dropped we already got in on this at 17 and a half outs we less than 17 and a half outs now he’s down to 16 and a half so we talked about this right this is going to happen more and more now when we post plays in the Discord I posted three six pick plays around 10: a.m. I want to say something like that this one has already gone down by a full out so we only have this at 48.3% but the thing that I still think is Worth showing is let’s go to this game and let’s go to these Brewers hitters and you’ll see yellow is here at fantasy points you’ll see William conteras is here fantasy points and then Yelich also available with the one and a half hits plus runs plus RBI we’re going to go ahead and put all of these in and let’s just take a look so right away we see all right yich is only at 49% with fantasy points contrerus at 55% so I definitely don’t want the Y fantasy points but I might want his hits plus runs plus RBI so we’re going to take a look at this 55.1% versus 54.9% look at this huge plus 5.8 percentage Point correlation bonus so basically what that’s saying is this is combined 20.4% likely to hit with this Trio without correlation if you just had three independent picks 48% 55 and 55% instead of being 20.4 it’d be 5.8 percentage points less than that that’s an enormous enormous difference with that said let’s figure out which pairing we want because again everything that we do remember is trying to figure out what the best payout that we can get on Price viix is if you go to a trio like this they start to really penalize correlation if you only go with a pairing they’re not penalizing correlation yet so this combo tyion and contras 30.7% you still get that 4.1 percentage Point correlation bonus If instead of contras fantasy points we went to Yelich we’d be once again 31.7% when we now get 5.2 percentage points of correlation so uh really really strong here my preference this morning was Yelich uh I think he’s still my preference in fact what was it 30.7 or 31.7 with contr okay it was 30.7 so yeah yellow it’s still showing as the better one but do we want to do this now at uh 16 and a half outs for tyion Maybe not maybe not because again that dropped a ton it was like I want to say he was 59% at 177 A5 now 48% at 16 a half that’s an enormous difference but because of the correlation this is still fairly strong at 31.7 so for example like if we were to go to some independent plays let’s just go let’s find uh oh you know what I have a good one SOA and judge not an independent plays highly correlated place so 56% 55% and we get 1.7 percentage points of correlation 32 2.2% so this seems strong right 32.2 it’s not bad it’s pretty solid you wouldn’t expect to have something anywhere near as good with a 48% and a 55% because that out and hips plus run plus RBI pairing is so incredibly correlated that stto judge pairing and the now tyone and Yelich pairing with tyone down at 16 and a half are pretty equivalent pretty cool to see uh let’s see anything else that we got got here so again if you guys have questions please please please drop them into the chat anything that you can think of PGA MLB NBA in the meantime uh before we get any questions I’m going to head over to the NBA side of things I will say one final thing here we also gave out another pairing was part of that six pick play but as I talked about when I was on stream on Tuesday it’s taking advantage of a type of correlation that price fix hasn’t yet recognized is anywhere near as correlated as it actually is so I’m not going to show that here on the show if you want access to that I can tell you the the combined uh win probability of it was like 42% with a different pairing so it’s pretty spectacular you’re going to want it the only place you can get it is in the ftn fantasy Discord again $250 for the entire year of a DFS subscription or you can get it for $40 a month either way it’s so well worth it you will make your money back so quickly on that subscription based on what we’re doing here on price fix with that said let’s go over to the NBA price fix tool and the very first thing that stood out to me was if we go to the blocks Department we’ve got Derrik Jones Jr 1.15 kind of crazy he doesn’t have a block this series he had a block in every single game of the LA series I I think that this projection is pretty solid at 64.3% man he’s just such a good good shop blocker so incredibly athletic for whatever reason he doesn’t have one in the series but there’s nothing about Minnesota that says that that should continue what I would like even more than this is if he shows up with a one and a half line for blocks plus Steels if we see that one I’m definitely playing it if he stays just with this 0 five blocks I will play it if I need another one off right now I might just be content with the three that I got this morning especially now that that tyone number Dr not going to find a pairing as good as that tyone and yish that we had this morning so I might not add any more but if I do want to add more and I need a one-off this is definitely one that I would be comfortable going to and as far as the rest like Gafford looks pretty good but man we don’t yet know what Lively situation is going to be it’s also the the Clea uh element of it so I I don’t feel super super good about anything else on the NBA side but again if you’ve got questions about any NBA stuff just let me know fantastic thank you so much for letting me know this detective gillis’s $80 uniform pants Hugo uh fantastic is always with your username and great patch here DJJ one and a half stocks on Underdog definitely worth playing over there Peta and gallon fantasy points on Underdog to high uh let’s see what are they at over on underdog there there is a slight difference in the Fantasy Point calculations over on Underdog so 28 and a half for pavetta uh the only difference for pitchers is that on price picks a win is worth six a quality start is worth four both of those are worth five points on on Underdog so the it really doesn’t change the the math behind the fantasy points props there hitters is actually much different where you should see a higher line on Underdog because the scoring it’s just going to mean more points like uh I I think for one thing um well let’s let’s just go look at it so singles are worth three doubles are worth six doubles are worth five on priz picks triples are worth eight home runs are worth 10 those are the same walks are worth three hit by pitch are worth three on Underdog only two each on price picks RBI and run are both worth four and then a stolen base only four on Underdog worth five on price fix so slightly higher uh numbers are what we should see on Underdog so anytime you see like you know maybe a hitter’s eight and a half on price fix and he’s eight and a half on Underdog it’s a better play on Underdog see anything else anything else let’s take a look at some golf stuff looking at birdies or better on Underdog right now Underdog’s so much better on the PGA side of things if if you want to play PGA pick them I can’t recommend the underdog product enough use code ftn when you sign up 100% deposit match up to $100 they just give so much more more players oftentimes they have better lines they give more alternate stuff so like you can you can take OA batia for example three and a half birdies are better it’s only at [Music] 0.9x or you can take the lower at 1.1x so you get that sort of thing they’ll also do things where they just you know maybe they’ll have OA at 3.0 birdies for the normal or you can take three and a half for 1.2x something like that and then they also just give more options of of types of bets to do so again can’t can’t recommend Underdog enough if you’re interested in playing PGA taking a look through here um in fact let me do this let me see the scoring right now is a little bit tougher than I expected but it also started out as a really cold day so we might end up seeing a difference in scoring from the morning to the afternoon where it’s actually more favorable to play in the afternoon it doesn’t look like wind it’s going to pick up very much again it was cold to start the day in the 40s at the beginning beginning of the round for a lot of these guys low 50s it’s going to be in the 60s and perfectly Sunny by the end of the day so the ball’s going to be carrying a lot of these holes are going to play a little bit shorter we’ve got a couple very birdal holes the par fives are playing easy there are a couple almost drivable par fours so I do think I like some of these birdie numbers on the afternoon guys the only problem is you can’t go ahead and just try to stack everything so like if you went AE more birdies McKenzie Hughes more birdies Adam hadwin more birdies number one you’re getting a lot of these guys at just 0.9x now it looks like Underdog is thinking the way we are where they’re making the the more inside uh slightly discounted but then you also get severely penalized for correlation so that three ordinarily three pick play is worth 6X you get a couple 0.9 x’s and you get a a correlation penalty and all of a sudden that combination of three would only be 3.7 8X so we don’t want to do that sort of thing but we might want to mix in some one-offs on these guys there so stay tuned throughout the day AE Strokes at 69 that’s a good question let’s see um so scoring right now the average score to par is plus 1.06 this is what a par this is a par 70 so it’s pling as 70 point or playing to 71.6 right now is he going to gain Two Strokes on the field I would say probably not I I lean towards the over but if it’s exactly at 69 I think it’s it’s too likely that it ties and it’s just there’s not there’s not value on either side of that yeah man PGA PGA pick them is so fun when the offerings are there I still so upset with priz fixs this year that they they kind of Tanked that product the way they have but it just means we go play on Underdog perfectly fine uh any other questions on PGA MLB NBA anything for the day or should we just get on out of here today Keith Mitchell by the way three under par tied for fifth started bogey bogy’s been battling back for us so Signs of Life from our DraftKings team so far Troy Merritt the guy that 5800 so the value play I’m I’m really relying on so far even par through 16 t21 not bad Adam Scott just made a nice birdie finally finally got himself on the board actually made a long putt after a pretty poor Chip Shot on on one of the driveable par fours so he’s back to one over in contention not well he’s not necessarily In Contention but he’s he’s back in play maybe he can make a run but certainly In Contention to make the cut so decent start for us there should be a pretty fun week and uh yeah we we def we definitely want to look more at Underdog these days um and one thing that I’ve noticed too is there there are a lot more times than there used to be where Underdog lines and prize pick lines are different it used to be like it seemed like they had the exact same provider and so all the lines were the same we’re starting to find some advantages so before we hit out of here let’s do exactly that let’s go ahead let’s go back to the price fix tool I’ve talked about this before the thing that I like looking at the most is I’m going to go to the strikeout department and I’m looking for guys that we show value on who are on an even number basically all of these guys so I don’t really want to take a side on any of these players but what I want to do is I want to check for Underdog to see if they’re at five and a half four and a half with the demon something like that so tyion arti pavetta Scott sandal Trevor Williams got we’ve got potential for all these guys let’s start tyion arti and pavetta let’s go over to Underdog and let’s see what we got I’m Gonna Leave the the price picks pick them tool up because I want to be able to quickly reference those probabilities if we’ve got anything so Peta strikeout numbers let’s let’s see 5 and a half is 0.9x and less than P less than five and a half is 1.1x so let’s go ahead let’s type in five and a half here not 55 five and a half we’re still on the less than side 52.4% for 1.1x not bad not great let’s check the other guys all right where are you at again 5 and a half for retti more is 0.9x less is 1.1x so we’re going to do the exact same thing type in five and a half again I typed 55 because I’m a [ __ ] and we get 54% okay 54% for 1.1x now we’re talking so I like that as an option less than five and a half strikeout for arti at 1.1x available on Underdog I like that so much more than the less than six uh at just the standard where it could tie it could slash your odds we don’t want that so let’s find tyone tyone hopefully we get a similar option there also with tyone interesting note Underdog will penalize those outs and hit plus run plus RBI pairings or any pitcher hitter pairing immediately they don’t wait for a second correlated pairing the way price fixed does so you can’t play that kind of thing sorry on on Underdog but here we have higher on four and a half strikeouts for tyone is 0.9x lower is 1.5x okay not quite as good as I was hoping for I was hoping for that 1.1 but four and a half let’s see what we got 54.6 percent 1.5x that’s probably good too I think arti is gonna be my favorite here don’t mind both of them though and you could certainly combine them what would that combination be in fact and if we went to tyion you’re never going to want to do two pick plays you’re especially if you’re going to these multipliers you probably want the three pick plays but let’s see what what kind of payout we could get here so lower than four and a half strikeouts for tyon lower than five and a half for arti come on so that com combination goes from 3x to 3.4x the three- pick play the standard is 6X we want to see what that can go to oh we said Derek Jones Jr was available at one and a half uh stocks so let’s find that one Derek Jones Jr one and a half blocks plus Steals and it’s 1.1x love that so there’s a three- pick play on Underdog tyone less than four and a half strikeouts arti less than five and a half strikeouts Derrick Jones Jr more than one and a half flocks plus steals 7.62x from 6X which is already a good payout for a three pick play up to 7.62 I like this one a lot there’s our three pick play over on Underdog strike out Mariners they do strike out a lot but we’ve been talking so much about arti at ftn this year because even at the start of the year we were really high on him when he was struggling the thing with arti is you never know what his command is going to be like when his command is there he’s a great pitcher but man he just doesn’t have the command so often and so when that happens doesn’t really matter who the opponent is doesn’t matter how much they strike out if he can’t put his pitches where he wants them he’s gonna walk guys he’s gonna struggle it’s going to be hard for him to get those strikeouts I think the matchup by the way is why you see the number inflated around the industry around uh on these uh pick them sites so and you look you can look at it and say you know what the Marin strike out a ton I’m really hesitant to go on an under but also recognize the match up might be why there is value here so sometimes you don’t want to double count those things it’s not like our model doesn’t know that Seattle strikes out a lot it still likes the under uh for his KS especially at a 1.1x multiplier that’ll do it for today’s show thanks everybody for tuning in I I really like thank I want to say a quick shout out to Hugo detective gillis’s 80 uniform pants uh for that Underdog inspiration we should do more of that we will do more of that especially when we get to NFL season man NFL season is going to be so much fun with all this pick them success that we’ve been having thanks for tuning in we’ll catch you next time
