UFC Vegas 91 Betting Card Predictions and DraftKings Picks

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UFC Vegas 91 Betting Card Predictions and DraftKings Picks!

Fight by fight betting analysis and Draftkings breakdown for MMA DFS players and sports bettors. This is your go to spot for UFC Vegas 91 betting advice.

This week, Jon Kelly talks through every fight matchup and favorite bets for UFC Vegas 91. With DraftKings having monster prize pools each week, this is the place you need to be to hear all of Jon’s top DFS picks for UFC Vegas 91 and DraftKings advice.

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UFC Vegas 91 betting and draftking show we have 13 fights this Saturday I’m John Kelly let’s he the picks and we’re going to kick things off in the lightweight division as machete is a minus 198 favorite The Comeback on Gabriel bonitz is plus 164 and this was actually my first bet of the card and it’s not going to feel great but I’m actually backing the underdog the veteran here in Mugi bonitz I backed him at plus 180 for a unit I just think he’s going to have multiple advantages in this spot despite the durability concerns because that is a clear red flag with bonitz he’s been hurt multiple times he’s lost three of his last four fights his only win in that span came against Charlie onos who we know is is no good and doesn’t belong in the UFC and has since been cut but I still think that bonitz is going to be throwing more volume on the feet he’s a better technical Striker we know he’s going to stay active with the L kicks which is something that gave chete issues against uh Slava Claus in his last fight where he got brutally knocked out but prior to that knockout and he got dropped twice before getting knocked out in that fight but prior to that he was getting his legs beat up by just about everything that Slava Claus landed with the leg kicks and we know bonitz even at this stage in his career still one of the better leg kickers in the game bonitz also has sneaky submission grappling upside got a tight Guillotine choke I still have concerns with machete’s defensive grappling we just really haven’t seen it detested all that much and he’s just a guy who yes he carries power he’s young I expect him to be making improvements but he’s generally just a low volume guy and and doesn’t really have any skills that blow you off the page so like unless he’s able to hurt bonitz at a really high clip here I just don’t see him winning rounds and I think bonitz is better in the clinch I already mentioned the leg kicks I think he’s the better submission Grappler as well he just needs to avoid getting hurt by the power of Mah shete I know it seems bad he looked bad against Jim Miller here his last fight but even at this stage in his career a declining bonitz I think could still have some potential to look like a live dog in this spot so I’m back in the underdog and bonitz at plus 180 and he’s going to be the pick I think bonitz gets it done this weekend next fight up in the women’s flyweight division we have Ivana Petrovic a minus 500 favorite The Comeback on nalang is plus 380 and this is one that’s very clear to me and in terms of DraftKings you want to get exposure to nalang despite her being 0 and3 in the UFC she’s been finished in all three of those fights but I’ve compared her to like a Daniel D Silva type of fighter a Daniel lerta fighter where even though they’re losing they’re having pockets of success those early burst in a lot of those fights and we saw it in our UFC debut against Ariana carosi where she dropped her instantly um she’s also a very aggressive Grappler she’s going to look to land takedown we saw that against JJ aldri she landed three takedowns before being finished in the second round but just like a Daniel lerta a Derek Min those type of Fighters they have significant round one upside but if that doesn’t happen they just can’t fight for 15 minutes they fall off a cliff in terms of the cardio and that’s why you see her getting finished in just about all of her losses and all of them at the UFC level is because she just doesn’t have the cardio to push that pace for 15 minutes so this is one where I think she has clear round one upside but she also has clear I’m going to get finished type of downside even against Ivana Petrovic who we know just isn’t really as good as she was hyped up to be in her UFC debut I actually bet Luana kolina in that spot I think it was plus 185 and karolina got the better of her you know she forced her to work hard for the takedowns when she got the takedowns she wasn’t really doing a lot and Petrovic is a very low volume Striker on the feet so even though I think leang has more round one upside has clear grappling upside as well I I think the cardio is going to favor petravic even though she’s not a high paac type a fighter I just think the drop off is very significant so if leang doesn’t find that round one finish I think petravic probably takes over in terms of the grappling and she does have some pretty solid ground and pound I I think more times than not she ends up getting the Finish but for DraftKings I think it’s one that you clearly want exposure to both sides and personally I’m going to be heavier on the underdog here but the official pick is going to be Petrovic by submission and next fight up in the lightweight division we have James Lop a minus 350 favorite The Comeback on Chris Padilla is plus 285 now this fight was put together on short notice because Lop was originally scheduled to face Gabe green who pulled out of this fight so now they signed this this guy who I’ve never heard of prior to this announcement Chris Padilla from the regional scene he’s a 13- six fighter he was scheduled to fight in Uriah Faber’s Regional promotion prior to this prior to getting that UFC call now he’s going to face James Lop who came off the contender series last season and Lop is not somebody that I think is this great Prospect by any stretch now he is still young you can expect improvements he’s currently on a 12 fight win streak including that Contender series fight but even coming into that fight against Malik Lewis I didn’t really you know laop didn’t really blow me away in terms of the tape like I think he’s an a solid fighter wherever the fight goes but he’s not really overwhelming guys in any area he does have legitimate knockout power he seems to be pretty tough he’s never been knocked out but if you watch multiple of his fights he is getting hurt and he is getting rocked in some of those fights that Contender series fight got a little bit sweaty at times the fight prior to Contender series he actually got dropped in that fight as well so this guy is not like this this super Prospect by any stretch but I don’t think it’s going to matter in this matchup because Chris Padilla I just don’t think is UFC level I think the only reason he’s getting the call here is to keep Lop on the card for whatever reason but Padilla doesn’t belong here in my opinion anytime he’s faced a step up in competition in terms of guys that you would actually recognize he he loses like outside of the Justin James fight which ironically is his last fight and James was also knocked out previously by my guy Gabriel Benitez who we talked about in the first fight on this card but we know Justin James is chinny and Pia was able to hurt him in round one ended up getting the Finish there but any other time where he’s facing someone that you’ve actually heard of he’s losing and I think he’s also somebody that struggles in terms of the defensive grappling and I know laop isn’t like an aggressive type of Grappler but he is going to be the better submission Grappler here the better wrestler as well i’ I’d expect him to have success in the clinch as well so it’s one where I’m not in love with Lop but I think this is his fight to lose we’re going Lop by decision that’s the official pick which brings us to our next matchup and the theme of this card is low-level and a lot of former Contender series Fighters making their follow up their sequel performance to their UFC debut and a lot of these Fighters lost their UFC debut so certainly some questions to be answered with a lot of these young prospects and one of them being Katlin sza she’s not a former Contender series fighter but she did face Karen Silva who is a contender series fighter previously who is also fighting on the main card of this Saturday but but sza ended up going to the ground against Silva which we know is probably a mistake at this point um Silva’s very dangerous down there and it was one of the nastier submissions last year where she basically just took sza’s knee and just popped it sideways it looked disgusting a lot of people were you know freaking out about it on Twitter thought maybe it was like a career Ender I actually don’t know what the official diagnosis was on that I didn’t see any type of surgery on her Instagram I’m sure there was some sort of rehab there obviously with how nasty that that knee injury was but she’s back in the Octagon this weekend she’s a big favorite here and I think she’s the rightful favorite because marmahon is somebody that I was very harsh on in her UFC debut I did not think she should have got the call and it was another short notice one where they just needed somebody to keep the fight alive and so they brought in marmahon she lost about every minute of that fight but ended up making it the full 15 minutes against Josephine nson and that’s really man’s biggest asset to me is she’s just really tough she’s tough to get out of there I know she was knocked out on Contender Series against Bruno Brazil a couple years ago but I think for the most part man’s durable and she’s just going to be somebody that hangs around even if they’re not winning minutes and so I think the bigger question here is whether or not you think sza can pay off her price on DraftKings I’m leaning towards a fade just because I think man is tough enough to hang around for 15 minutes but I do think s is the better fighter pretty much wherever the fight goes I think she gets her hand raised we’re going soza by decision that’s the official pick and next fight up we have Kai Machado a minus 125 favorite The Comeback on Dantel Mae is plus 105 and man I don’t I don’t know what to do with this fight I’ll be completely honest I know there’s people on both sides Machado ended up getting steamed from the open and now there seems to be a little bit buyback on maze now that he’s plus money and I just think this is one that I’m going to stay away from in terms of a betting standpoint because I’ve never been right about Dantel ma anytime I want to trust him anytime he seems like he’s just a layup like that HDI fight like it’s just brutal trying to trust Dantel May to do anything right and I think that’s the biggest concern with him is it’s not the skill set he does have power he’s super long he’s shown that he can wrestle when he wants to that Josh perisian fight was basically the only fight where he did it but I think trusting him to to fight with the right game plan to really have the fight IQ once he’s inside the Octagon I just personally can’t do it I’m done trusting the guy and on the flip side Kai Machado is not somebody that I want to trust either you know he fought on Contender series he fought Kevin sfari who threw like five punches the entire fight and Machado didn’t really get tested on the regional scene he was the bfl champ the Canadian Regional promotion very low level of competition and he looked okay in his last fight against Mick Parkin but we know that he can be taken down he doesn’t work back to to his feet very well I don’t really trust his cardio either even though I do expect him to push a better Pace than Dantel May so this is one where it’s like maziz could look like a clear favorite to me if he comes in and tries to wrestle uses his power but I just don’t trust him whatsoever but I do trust that Machado is actually going to fight like he wants to win more um and I think he can throw more volume over 15 minutes if the fight gets extended so I’m going to take Machado here Machado by decision as the official pick but again I’m never right about Dantel May so now that I’m picking against him I’m sure he’s going to wrestle and look like a big favorite in terms of DraftKings I’m going to have exposure to both sides because they’re priced affordably in the mid-range but the official pick is going to be Machado Machado by decision next fight up we have Michael figl A minus 155 favorite The Comeback on Austin hubard is plus 130 and this is another one where I like the dog here and I think this could be a potentially heavy dog card where you can make a case for a lot of them and I think mult underdogs come barking on Saturday and I think Austin hubard makes a good case to be one of them because for starters I think we’re getting a bu low spot because of how poor he looked against Kurt halah and I had an over in that fight so that was absolutely brutal um to see him get finished in the second round a guy that’s usually pretty tough and pretty durable hard to take down hard to Grapple and he just ends up getting subit in the second round now I think Michael figl here I have some serious concerns with him coming in as minus 155 for starters coming into his UFC debut against FIS ZM you know he was like this wrestling guy over over in cage Warriors and you know having success on the feed and all that he was getting hurt on the feed against ZM he couldn’t wrestle against ZM he just looked like he was outclassed in multiple areas in that fight and I just have a hard time seeing him cover this price tag against Austin hubard who historically his takedown defense is not that great it’s like 63% but look at the Grapplers and the wrestlers that he’s been facing that’s why it’s so low especially early on in the UFC where his takedown defense really wasn’t that great but he has made improvements along those fights and he’s been matched up against really good Grapplers much of that time so I I think it doesn’t really tell the whole story I think he is going to be tough to take down if figl tries to go that route a guy who I don’t really respect his wrestling to begin with and I actually think Hub could have some wrestling success of his own we’ve seen fig laac not look too good being taken down fighting off his back trying to throw up subs and that’s not going to work against Austin hubard who trains that elevation we know he has good cardio and he’s relied on his wrestling over his last couple fights even that hola fight he landed takedowns in that fight prior to that landed four takedowns in a in a fight like this guy is getting better I know he looked bad in his last fight but he is the better wrestler in my opinion and I think he’s got better cardio and I think the leg kicks could be a real issue because that’s one of hub’s biggest strengths and we know figl didn’t Faire too well against the L kicks of ZM I think this is one where hubard has multiple advantages it’s going to be a close fight I expect it to go 15 minutes I’m going to side with the dog here we’re going hubard by decision that’s the official pick next fight up we have Victor Henry a minus 470 favorite with Ronnie Yaya on the comeback at plus 360 and I’m not going to spend a ton of time on this one because it’s very clear that Yaya at this stage in his career 40 years old he’s got one one path to Victory and that’s an early submission and he’s very dangerous if you’re going to tangle with him on the mat but he doesn’t have good wrestling and he doesn’t have good cardio so if you can avoid grappling with this guy early then I think you’re going to win this fight nine times out of 10 for the most part if you’re a pretty solid fighter and I do think Victor Henry is a pretty solid fighter and I just expect him to keep distance play it safe early before Yaya has a chance to try to Grapple him and then Henry’s going to pour on the volume he’s going to have a massive striking Advantage here he’s got solid cardio he can push a pace for 15 minutes I think that’s going to play out over time to where Henry ends up getting the finish in rounds two or round three we’re going Henry by TKO that’s the official pick and next fight up we have Euros medic a minus 310 favorite The Comeback on Tim Dirty Bird means is plus 250 and I think this is another one you want to Target on DraftKings because medic we know historically does not fight to decision he’s actually never been the distance once in his entire career and we know what he’s going to bring to the table he fights out of the Southpaw stce he’s a very powerful Striker he’ll try some spinning back elbows some powerful legay kicks as well but if he doesn’t hurt you early he tends to fade and we know his defensive grappling still needs work he’s been submitted in both of his professional losses including his last fight against MC debeck oral by where he got submitted in the second round and I just think this is one where yes he can hurt means early certainly has the power to do that and we know means durability is just not the same he recently turned 40 himself and he’s been hurt over the course of his career but especially lately we’ve seen him getting hurt across multiple fights but I also think means is also a pretty good boxer pretty good cardio historically pretty good Grappler as well like there is a case to be made again where yes I expect medic to be the favorite to look like the favorite have the potential to finish early but if means could stay alive and not get hurt he is going to be alive dog here so for that reason I am going to have exposure to both sides on DraftKings but the official pick is going to be medit by TKO which brings us to our next fight as Jonathan Pierce comes in as a minus 180 favorite The Comeback on David onama is plus 150 and we’ll start on the Pierce side we know what he’s going to bring to the table the game plan with Pierce is to push a heavy grappling Pace he averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes and he has great cardio as well we know he can keep up that grappling pace for 15 minutes if he needs to the concern with Pierce has always been that he’s extremely hitable on the feet and he’s been rocked many many times even in fights where he’s winning it’s like you do not want to see this guy fight at space because he’s getting stung he’s getting hurt and now he’s facing somebody in David onama who we know has that freakish type of athleticism and power where he can certainly hurt him if you’re going to try to strike with him now the reason I’m still siding with Jonathan Pierce is because he’s going to have that massive grapple Advantage we know onama struggles to defend takedowns he defends takedowns at under 50% in the UFC so I think Pierce needs to wrestle early and often and I expect him to do that I’m going to have exposure to both sides on DraftKings because of the clear knockout upside for onama but more times than not I think Pierce just grinds on him and stays glued to him enough to get his hand raised here we’re going Pierce by decision that’s the official pick which brings us to our next match up in the heavyweight division as hanato Denise is a minus 245 currently the comeback on Austin Lane is plus 200 now Austin Lane’s coming off a first round knockout to Justin TAA in his last fight and I think that’s the concern here because Lane has clear durability issues he’s been knocked out four times in his career I think all of them were inside the first round or at least three of them were inside the first round so we know he has the propensity to get hurt early and he’s facing somebody that has clear round one knockout power this guy Denise 6-0 all six of his wins first round knockout he’s a former glory kickboxer we know he has some okay striking for the division but the power is for real now we still don’t know what his cardio is going to look like I’d suspect it to look bad if the fight gets extended we don’t really know what his grappling chops looks like either again I’d expect that to be pretty bad but I just don’t think it matters in this type of matchup where these guys are going to swing I expect Lane to get clipped early Denise probably High Rolls another finish here and then maybe we’re able to fade him in the future against a better Prospect we’re going Denise by round one knockout that’s the official pick which brings us to our next fight in the women’s flyweight division a fun match up between Karen Silva who’s now A minus 155 favorite and the comeback on Ariana lipsky is plus 130 and this is one where I think it’s very clear in terms of the dynamic what to expect here because Karen Silva we know is a very dangerous finisher in the first round one of the better finishers in the division in my opinion she’s 3 and0 in the UFC all three wins have come by first round submission and we know that’s kind of hero is she has a big right hand she’s powerful on the feet and she’s very aggressive with the grappling she’s got a couple good chokes as well we saw that in her last fight against Marina marose who she submitted with one second left in the round we also saw it against katyn sza the fight I referenced earlier where she just completely just popped her knee out effortlessly so the finishing prowess is certainly there Silva is very dangerous early I have concerns with Silva because the few times where we have seen her get extended and most recently in that Contender series fight in round two she looked like a standing corpse in my opinion like if that happens here against lipsky I think lipsky has clear upside to take over if the fight gets extended now why I’m still picking Silva is because the worry with lipsky is she’s hit a bow she’s been knocked out four times in her career so we know the chin isn’t super great and I could just see Silva hurting her early High rolling another finish here I think that’s the more likely outcome but I am going to be interested in the live markets using our tools at fight numbers.com the the odd screen that we have which updates in real time for live betting if we see Karen Silva really look like a favorite early like I expect but lipsky somehow survives to the Bell then certainly I’m going to be refreshing that odd screen trying to get the best live price on Ariana lipsky because I think if she does make it to round two she starts to look like a favorite my concern is she just doesn’t actually make it to round two so for DraftKings I think Silva clearly has more upside so she’s my preferred play on DraftKings we’re going Silva by submission that’s the official pick and next fight up we have the co-main event Ryan span a minus 205 favorite The Comeback on Bogden gusov is plus 170 and you guys know me man I’m not a Ryan span guy I think I picked against this guy in almost every single one of his UFC fights and he’s burned me many times because he’s the type of a fighter who has clear finishing upside like a Karen Silva that I just mentioned that early submission upside and he has power on the feet the problem with span is that I don’t think his cardio is very good and he’s got clear durability issues he’s only been knocked out three times in his career but we know he’s been hurt many many times because even in those fights where he’s winning he’s usually getting rocked at some point in those fights so this is one where even though I don’t think gusov is very good many people have labeled him as a fraud and he might be but he does have clear power and he is going to go out there and swing Heavies and I just expect these guys to just you know TR trade blows early on in this fight and if that’s the case I think I trust gav’s durability more so in a fight that I expect to be more of a coin flip I don’t mind leaning into the variant and just going heavier on the underdog here and gusov we’re going to go with gusov by TKO that’s the official pick next fight up we have our main event it’s Matas Nicola minus 192 The Comeback on Alex Perez is plus 160 Perez stepping in on short notice here to replace Manel cop who was originally scheduled for the rematch against Matas Nicola and had to pull out of the fight again due to injury so Perez is here on short notice but I actually think this is a decent spot for Alex Perez because clearly the market doesn’t trust him and I get why the dude misses weight he pulls out of fights blah blah blah that fight against Muhammad makave is last time out I actually thought we saw some pretty good things from Perez not only did he make weight not only did he not pull out but he actually looked good to me at times in that fight the problem with Perez was that I mean the fight was there for the taking certainly it was a very close fight but he just spent so much time defensively like he was just fending off takedowns you you can’t score points if you’re only defending takedowns and doing no no sort of damage that looks great sure and maybe the op were in his favor at times but if you’re not actually Landing damage or doing basically anything you can’t win the fight even though you’re you know preventing your opponent from from scoring points and not doing much offensively you’re still not scoring yourself and I think that was the biggest thing for Perez is like he just had to be a little bit more assertive there I think he certainly could have won that fight and if he did win that fight the odds would look a lot different here despite him being here on short notice I think Matas Nicola is a solid fighter he’s very well-rounded technical on the feet not the biggest high volume guy he’s a black belt and BJJ mixes in a taked down you know averages over one takedown per 15 minutes not a super aggressive Grappler either and I just don’t think he’s he’s the style of fighter to cover these pretty big price tags here because he’s not aggressive doesn’t push a big Pace doesn’t take a lot of risk and he’s chinny as well he’s been knocked out multiple times including his last fight against Brandon Royal and he’s facing somebody in Perez who’s a good wrestler who pushes a pace on the feet who’s got good leg kicks and he’s a pretty solid boxer as well the main concern with Perez here is he just always sticks his neck out there begging to be submitted he’s been submitted a bunch of times in his career but again I don’t think Nicola is this like aggressive submission Grappler so I think Perez has some significant upside here I’m going to side with Perez he’s going to round out a card that I think could be full of dogs and I think he’s one of them we’re going to go Perez by decision that’s the official pick and as always guys fight numbers.com will have my DraftKings player rankings it’ll have my ownership projections as well we have the picks by Evan O and pepe we have the odd screen as well couple other tools definitely check it out fight numbers.com now through Saturday you can use promo code Giga gig for 25% off now through Saturday be sure to check it out let me know what you guys think best of luck and we’ll see you next time