Why is the manager transfer market so weird right now?

Welcome to The Athletic FC’s YouTube channel, where best-in-class journalism meets video.

This season we’ve seen a historic low of managers being sacked from the Premier League and also Bayern Munich’s extraordinary (and still ongoing) manager search. Why aren’t managers being fired mid-season anymore? And why is it so hard to find a manager for an elite club?

Joe Devine, JJ Bull and Jon Mackenzie are joined by Seb Stafford-Bloor to find out why the manager transfer market is so weird right now.

This is The Athletic’s Week in Football.

#manchesterunited #premierleague #bayern

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Chaptes:
00:00 Intro
00:21 What’s “weird” about the manager market?
03:03 Why is the manager market weird?
04:22 PL Relegation Candidates
07:11 Rising Manager Quality in the PL
09:22 How the PL affects the European market
10:20 Bayern Munich’s Manager Search
12:16 What are Bayern looking for?
14:58 What about Roberto De Zerbi?
17:50 Brighton’s problems this season
21:09 Why De Zerbi is a good fit for United
22:43 Next Steps for Manchester United
25:38 Is this an outlier season?

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Music sourced from Epidemic Sound
Additional footage sourced from AP Newsroom

have you noticed that the football manager Market is a little bit weird right now Bayern Munich can’t seem to find a manager Manchester United don’t seem to know what to do with ten hard and nobody’s really getting fired so what’s going on well I’m joined by John Mackenzie and JJ bull to find out so what what do we mean by weird when we talk about the manager Market well I think if we take a snapshot of the premier league right now it’s quite obvious that there’s something going on that’s a bit outlier so you can see from this graphic here which is mid-season sackings over the last 10 seasons this season 23 24 is an alltime low over that time period now if we go back to 2021 which as you remember is co season that’s the next lowest season but from that point onwards we can see that those manager sackings midseason were trending upwards to the point where there was a huge amount of manager sacked last season so clearly something is going on here the big question is why managers being sacked less frequently and so I think the best way to start answering that question is to look at certain flash points on the Premier League table where you might expect managers to be to be sacked so one of them is the is the Champions League Line so top six teams that don’t get into the Champions League probably spent a lot of money trying to get into the Champions League places so they may be thinking about sacking their coaches we’ve got I think four teams here just outside of the top four where there’s been interesting things happening this season so Tottenham hsur if it wasn’t and just’s first season and if Spurs weren’t giving the impression that they’re doing more of a process approach to to management right now there’s an argument to be made that he might be sacked at this point of the season and then there’s other teams below them where I think maybe money comes into it a little bit more so Newcastle United doing all right now but earlier on in the season there was a point of which people were asking should Eddie how go but part of the problem we have here is PSR issues so if you get rid of a manager you bring in a new manager you can actually end up outlaying quite a lot of money those are profit and sustainability premier league rules right that’s right yeah so you will think twice I think about getting rid of coaches uh because it it will start impacting the players that you can bring in and I think a lot of clubs realize that you know you’re only as good as the players you have in your squad Chelsea a pretty perfect example of that yeah because they still have managers on their books who don’t work for them anymore so they’re paying out money for for them so a lot of money can be laid out in these situations so it feels as though both Newcastle and Chelsea have have just gambled on keeping their managers and you know it’s clearly worked out because both of those teams have had Optics in terms of their form more recently what about Manchester United what possible explanation is there for this yeah I me Manchester United have had a generationally bad season um they are eighth in the table and in many respects they’re lucky to be I think if you look at the underlying numbers they’re you know projected to be lower down the table which is really quite bad um I don’t think there any manager at Manchester United previously who would have been able to have such a bad season and still be in the job and yet he’s still here and you know there’s even the outside chance he could still be there next season certainly a nonzero chance that he could be there next season they’ve got the FA Cup Final who knows if they manage to win that it seems incredible to say it right now but there’s a possibility that he could still be in the job at the end of the beginning of next season so something weird is going on in the market I think JJ why is this happening well a lot of clubs in the Premier League are now quite smart in fact throughout all of football and if you look at the Premier League and how the ownership of clubs have changed over the last 10 20 years it’s very very different because now I would argue that they aren’t so much football clubs as they are multi-billion pound or dollar Investments because whereas like in 2000 every single Club was domestically owned now every single one basically I think uh is either partly owned or massively owned by uh private Equity firms I like partly own massive [Laughter] well yes in private Equity firms yeah hedge funds all big words or Gulf States Gulf States that’s correct not golf no so in order to um make your asset an investment to make it grow you need to run it very efficiently and like a business so rather running like a club run like a business which means you put in people to make sure that there is uh cohesion to your strategies you bring in directors of football technical directors you start basing things on analytics and data you bring in uh whole depart depart to make sure this whole business functions as it should horribly efficient basically as long as the club isn’t massively underperforming they tend to be absolutely fine but even now when underperforming because there’s now PSR things in there there is fewer reasons to get rid of them because you have to take all of this into context as part of your strategic decisions MH and then if you look at the relegation teams at the moment here no one’s really underperforming yeah that’s also that’s really interesting also John isn’t it because uh I assume around the relegation zone is the other hot spot for sackings yeah that’s the flash point right clubs are in danger of going down and I think there’s been a few outlier situations this season one of which is the three teams that came up have largely been pipped for relegation the whole season Luton give or take have flirted with getting out but the other thing that’s interesting is we’ve had Everton and forest with PSR points deductions which has meant that for example Everton have had a relatively okay season um but the points deduction makes them look much closer to the relegation line than they maybe have been um and so you know Everton haven’t really considered daon you got brenford just below Everton who are the next team close to to relegation they’ve never really been that close and there was a few weeks where it was like looking a bit sketchy but they pulled a few wins off and you’re never you’re never getting rid of th yeah exactly brenford are a process driven Club so they they’re going to be more careful about it not quick quick silent Round of Applause for Shawn D I would say by the way I don’t know if that’s agreeable but um full volume for Shawn D well done well done to Shawn D come on continue even just breaking down I think the the bottom three teams is quite interesting because Sheffield United moved on Paul he botom and brought in Chris Wilder um and it you know it hasn’t visibly moved the needle for them but Burnley and Luton have interesting approaches to their coaches so you’ve got Vincent company at Burnley who had a a really good points total in the championship like last season Luton toown another process-driven team who I think would consider promotion last season to be ahead of schedule for their um their long-term plan and so they’re just treating this as an excuse to get some experience of the Premier League um and keep the the coach in post so that if they do go down they they’ll be confident of yo-yoing back up um and so I think what we’re see now is even teams coming in at the bottom of the table much harder to jump the Gap into becoming a solid Premier League side but also having I think a lot more of a long-term view that actually what we need to do is have one or two seasons moving between the divisions to become a solid Premier League side as well so all of which means that we’ve not seen as many sackings um here as we might expect to and I think if we go back to that graphic at the beginning you can see that most of the teams who move their managers on are teams who who are below 15th 15th or below um and all of them I think yeah I think that because the there’s almost been a squeezing down of the clubs who are in danger of relegation it’s just meant that there’s been fewer sackings as well I love that appro that new approach to getting promoted and staying up just doing it three times in a row and then eventually you know you pick your year this is the one Lads we’ll go for it here yeah stick with a good manager who got you up then it means you’re more uh sustainable as a business really because you’re not constantly changing and all these assets are managed by a different person I remember Uncle Daman Norwich fan telling me once when Norwich went down with Daniel farer I think it was as the coach he was so happy that the club stuck with Daniel farer because he was sick of having a sacka manager he liked every time they got relegated from the Premier League which was every time they came up that’s right yeah well if you look at all the teams now that are in the Premier League all of them have I mean hindsights a wonderful thing but every single one of these managers is pretty good it’s wild isn’t it yeah look at that brenford Frank Thomas Frank you’ve got glasner Crystal Palace sha D there Marco Silva at Fulham all of these are linked with big uh bigger clubs you know Roberto derer andon in very well at Bournemouth um so this is kind of what you’re looking at here and compare this we talked about sorry we talked about Chris Wilder as well I as an example of okay BR Bron coach hasn’t really worked with Sheffield United but he’s hardly like a fuddy duddy old school manager he had in you know he was playing inverted center backs a couple of years ago right inverted center backs and overlapping ones as well yes oh yeah they did both didn’t they yeah upside down center backs that’s what he was playing but you compare this managers here and again this is where hindsight is very useful you compare to who got fired last year when they all got killed and that’s when you had Scott Parker um Bruno LJ Steven Gerard Frank Lampard Jesse Marsh managers like this who we don’t think of as being incredible like process managers they were showing the door sure they’re out of there they were they’re gone but now you’ve got all good ones I mean I we say this a lot but like if you look at the list I don’t think we’ve got it but if you look at the list of Managers from 10 years ago in the Premier League it’s shockingly bad in comparison I we didn’t know we didn’t know then but now we know yeah and it again it comes back to to money right like the finances of the Premier League are able to pull coaches across from around Europe now and so we’re seeing you know coaches like Oliver glasner um coming into the Premier League we we we saw um hula OPI being linked with West Ham and and potentially you know turning down other bigger clubs in order to get into the Premier League as well so this is all part of you know the the the PSR reality that we live in clubs have to be more financially sustainable as as Windows your for next what we’re more willing to try especially in the bottom half of the table to try and get upside from bringing in smart upand cominging managers taking the risk that maybe it won’t work but as we’re seeing actually getting the benefit derer Irola glasma Marco Silva this is this is starting to become a reality well uh that that Financial pull is also is presumably one of the symptoms for similar problems happening across Europe John yeah and I think Barcelona the really interesting example here because they’ve got Javy Hernandez as their coach right now he was stepping down at the end of the season seems to have reversed his decision in recent weeks when the club have started doing a little bit better and like Premier League Sid as well they have Financial issues to contend with ffp like problems the cost controls that La Liga have in place means that they can’t just get rid of managers bring new managers in because those things cost money and so they’re being more careful from a financial point of view and I think by D to that fact what we’re starting to see then is like the pool of clubs that can hire Elite managers has been slightly narrowed but also that set of managers who could potentially take that kind of job as narrowed as well because julan nlman has stayed in the international game where he had the option of maybe moving back into the domestic football leagues um and so again you’re getting reduction of the amount of clubs that maybe are looking for these Elite managers but also a reduction of the of the managers who are available in that situation well I mean that that bring brings us all the way around to Bayern munion Johan who uh are uh there in this conversation yeah I mean there another flash point right because what we’ve seen from Bayern is an inability to get maybe the manager that they would ideally want to get this situation and so they’ve been working their way through various managers some of whom have turned them down and others of whom haven’t been available well let’s hear about that process right now from the Athletics very own Sebastian Stafford bla who’s here to give us the timeline of manager search that’s I was trying to think of a more tramatic term but there isn’t one really is though it’s just a manager search but here’s all the people they looked at and seb’s going to tell us who Bay Munich have had a really really strange 2024 so back in the winter they announced that Thomas tuul been leaving the club in the summer and that’s set forth a chain of events which is still going now first of all Javi Alonzo said nine to the Bayern Munich job he is going to stay at lusen and defend their Bundesliga title lead the club into into the Champions League Hulen nman did the same he’s staying with the dfb he wants to manage Germany for the foreseeable future uni Emy he’s a no to he’s very very happy at Aston Villa have Roberto derer he’s staying at Brighton he doesn’t want to manage Bayern Munich Ralph ranik that was a really really strange one he’s decided at 65 that he would rather continue to manage the Austrian national team coaching not every few days but every few months that was unexpected Eric ten hog no no no he’s not going to Germany he would have been going back to Bayern Munich because he used to work in the Youth Academy there so where are we don’t really know it’s looking like maybe hansy flick but nobody in Germany is really really sure who Bay are going to turn to next thank you Seb very long search isn’t it it’s taking I yeah it’s taking a long time and I think we we’ve heard all the reasons why that might be the case but in their specific case JJ they are an elite team aren’t they and so they have particular issues here too what what are they what are they what are they looking for particular issues well Bayern Munich would be looking for the best manager yeah so that’s clearly what they want to get and we can divide what all the managers in the world are into little buckets and we can do that in a second but like with Bayern Munich what they really want is like the absolute best manager who’s going to take them to the next level or just win things um they also tend to like someone who’s got something to do with Bayern Munich whether they’ve played for the club or they’re from Bavaria Bavaria like friends with them or something to speak German as well yep very very important these things all help so if you’re B munic you want the very best and the very best are in a bucket I’ve called unavailable brackets right now and that includes managers like Pep Guardiola who’s actually linked with him yuran klopp Javi Alonzo M Etta Sir Alex Ferguson Sir Alex Ferguson unavailable right now and next to that I have another bucket I’ve called this bucket realistic potentially available managers with experience of managing a giant Club okay because what you want to by Munich ideally someone who’s a an elite coach but someone who has managed a big Club because Bayern Munich is more than just managing players on the pitch yeah it’s a huge B off of the thing and it’s very hard to there’s a lot to deal with here it’s unwieldy yeah you’ve got a lot of pressure you need to be able to deal with that and manage massive egos it’s very complicated thing to do and in that list I’ve got managers like lisis Enrique simonan zagi hany flick Mar poino un Emory did shps remember him mhm so the people like this are all there then you go to Jose Mourinho no it’s not going to be him not Antonio con it’s not going to be zenine zadan it’s not going to be Stefano pii what about un who SE did mention yeah mean he’s there at the Premier League but the Premier League is like the league to go to right now and he’s just at the start of this um you know uh process that he’s in now and he might want to stay with Aston Villa to take it to wherever it might go but does Arsenal count as big Club experience like given that it didn’t didn’t go very well well he also managed Paris San gerain oh so he did yeah and won Thea well the Europa League with Sevilla a few times as well yeah well they’re not super Club but you know what I mean anyway if you go down that list we get to players like well managers like Ronald keman no it’s not going to be him and then you start working your way down to uh clubs like in England Manchester United then you start going all G Sola maybe not David Moyes maybe not Eric ten Haag these are all play managers who have managed at this this high level and so then if it’s not in that group of managers you see all the pros and cons to all of these you go into an upand Comer so who are the next managers on the list that are going to take you to the next level you bank on them early then you get managers like um Seb herness it’s sart who just in a new deal so he’s not going to buy now it’s why he’s unavailable uh Chago M maybe but does it scale is it does it really work elsewhere Ruben amarim done very well in Portugal and then end on this list with Roberto derer who everyone’s really hot and very very recently but all of a sudden isn’t the Talk of the Town yeah it’s interesting that isn’t it what is it what is that with Roberto derer because as JJ says I feel like last calendar year we were all tipping him for the next big job we were saying oh look if Pep Guardiola leaves Manchester City or he’s definitely going to to Bayern Munich he doesn’t seem to be going anywhere what’s happening yeah and what we’re talking about here I think is risk because there’s certain things that Roberto deserie does that has attracted Elite clubs because he’s doing something with I guess mid-table Squad to make them look like they can compete at the highest level in certain areas the big question is whe whether or not you can scale that up but in order to explore what those ideas are it’s probably best for us to break down what it is that Bayern Bayern Munich do Brighton do Brighton John it’s Brighton it is Brighton yes well I think the thing that has attracted Elite clubs to Des Derby is the fact that he is able to do the sorts of things that Elite teams want particularly in possession of the ball but he does it in a slightly interesting way that I think maybe adds upside to certain teams we can go on to talk about some of the teams that this might work with later but when we’re talking about Elite teams in possession what we’ve seen from teams like Arsenal Man City what they want to do is possess the ball more than their opponents and they want to do that by squeezing their opponents into their basically into their own Penalty Box into their own third that does a couple of things one it makes it more likely for you to have the ball in an area where you can score but also it keeps the opposition away from your own goal so the theory is with elite players if you are going to be able to have the ball in those kind of areas eventually you are going to be able to score goals now the Zerby doesn’t have that available to him because he has a lower ceiling in terms of t talent and Technical quality in his Squad and so what he does is he actually flips this Logic on its head and it’s and he says well if we aren’t going to be able to break down Low Blocks why create Low Blocks in the way that Man City and Arsenal do why not just avoid that completely and let’s try and possess the ball deeper in the pitch further away from the goal because this gives us a few advantages one of them is that it’s easier to possess the ball away from the opponent in your own half because it’s just more space available to you so if you have less technical players you are able to you know you should be able to possess the ball better in these sorts of situations um but the other thing that this does is it has this capacity then if you’re going to bait the opposition forward into pressing you because you’re holding the ball deep in your half you’re actually doing the opposite of what clubs like Man City and Arsenal are doing because you’re creating then space that you can attack and and the whole idea behind what derer is doing is that he’s creating these um these scenarios where they know how to build up the ball through the lines of pressure and eventually they’re going to be able to hit the hit these passes into um wide players coming out to in runs and and there should be a lot of space for them to attack so they have players like Marsh and and mtima who are able to you know attack in these artificial transition moments he’s stacking the deck I don’t know if you’ve noticed but he’s stacking the deck for his uh prediction recommendation later JJ viewers at home just have a think about who Jon’s going to recommend deserve he goes to carry on John yes I can’t work it out there’s a couple of problems that have happened this season so play had a few setbacks in a certain few key areas one of which is the wide forwards that they’ve been using M March um have both been injured for big spells of this season so they’re playing a system which is reliant on creating space for these two players they’ve not been available so obviously that makes things a little bit more difficult but the other aspect of this is interesting is that because Brighton is so devastating in these transitional moments is that teams are like well it takes two to tango here so we have to press high in order for there to be space so what if we just refuse the space right and the problem then is as we said before if Brighton don’t have the players who can break down those Low Blocks have the the technical ability in their world to do that then they are going to struggle but there comes another problem here too and that is that that they are now able to easily possess the ball in these higher areas but they’ve got the opposite problem that exactly the problem they’re trying to provoke in other teams which is they are now quite vulnerable to the space in behind and this season they’ve got gross and Gilmore in that double pivot in the buildup that’s great because they’re two of the best technical buildup players in in the Premier League outside of the top six but from a defensive point of view much weaker than Moises kaedo and Alexis mallister who last summer went to Elite clubs last summer and now they’re much more vulnerable in defensive transition so you now have these two problems one of which is Breaking Down Low Blocks the other of which is defending in transition which is the problems that you know Man City and um and Arsenal have to face all the time so this is why clubs are interested in derer because he’s able to create these conditions and maybe Brighton have just been worked out a little bit Yeah there’s there are questions about how youed whether or not these are bigger issues in terms of scalability then so can we solve these problems by moving him to a more Elite club now both of these issues that we’re talking about here can be solved by being able to buy better players right you if you have better players you can you know you can bring in those players who going to be good in transition but also good in tight spaces so you can break down Low Blocks you’re also going to be able to bring in your rodri your Declan Rices in order to sit in the Midfield and and cover those defensive transition moments so scalability in that sense isn’t really an issue because you would think at a better Club you can solve some of these problems but another problem that we could talk about here is that deserie is quite a scripted Co so a lot of the you know the buildup to get through lines of pressure when they’re sitting deep uh they’re based on just really clear ideas about which pass you should play who should move where automatons yeah automatons and so and that that becomes a question right does he have the flexibility then when he is at an elite club to be able to change things up every season the reason why Pep Guardiola is the greatest manager of all time from a tactical point of view is because he has the ability every year to change his tactics up to push back against the way that teams find find them out so I think there’s legitimate question there about whether or not deserie is the coach who who is able to be that flexible or if he’s too idealistic as well and then look we’re only talking about you know what’s happening on the field here this is a purely tactical point of view and managers don’t simply have to manage on the field they have to manage off the field as well and I think there’s there’s questions about I think derer is quite prickly character in in press conferences I think he’s probably quite hard to work with because he’s so idealistic as well and so maybe working in an elite environment those could be raised as questions as well but I do think that when it comes to scalability it is worth a club trying him out and seeing whether or not it works because a lot of the in this respect like you can only really test the cake by eating it well and there there’s one uh club that you think should scoff the cake isn’t there yeah well I think that you know the way that he plays football would really suit a club like Manchester United because as we talked about a lot of this is about points for those who guess that at home by the way as we were talking about before this is all about generating transitional moments and ericon hog this season has said he wants to make Manchester United the best transitional team in the world in part that’s because of the players that he has so to bring someone like derer in um you would be you would be playing transitional football but I think an elite form of that because it’s about ball possession it’s not about what you usually have to do when you play transitional football which is allow the opposition to have the ball win it back and then transition this is about generating as we’ve called artificial transition so with possession of the ball and then finding that space um but also I think one of the things that is really good about derer is that he’s a really good technical coach so he he takes players he wouldn’t think would be able to perform in tight spaces and and in build up environments and do Progressive passes lewiis dun’s a great example of that no one thought of him as being you know part of a a really intricate build-up team and he’s able to coach the details with them make them make them better than they were before and I think you know we’ve seen tenaga struggle to get his team to build up well I think that you would get a big upside from someone like Derby being able to increase the technical capacity of his players with the system as well um so yeah it’s just a big question about whether or not the the more negative aspects that we talked about would would actually lead to his undoing but if he could get more out of the squad they could start winning more a lot of that stuff I think goes away anyway so yeah this is why it’s a risk it’s um this is why he’s not in an elite club right now and but this is why an elite club should maybe take a gamble on him sticking with man united specifically though it’s I mean it’s tough a tough environment for them as well if if it’s not deserie what where are they looking let’s let’s go back to the buckets well they’d have to look in the buckets and they’ll find themselves in exactly the same position as Bayern Munich they want someone who can manage a massive huge B moth club and so your unavailable ones are still unavailable then you start looking at the ones who have managed the big Club but um have experience of it and they’re still good coaches but maybe not just quite there and that’s when you start looking at managers like Eric tan Haag they’ve already got him yeah solar he’s gone you know what are you going to do then look at the up andc comers maybe they’re the answer but they don’t have the experience of managing a huge Club so how about you look at someone who’s managed at a very high level maybe doesn’t have the Tactical excitement of other coaches but would bring like a safe head in there might bble to manage some of the the uh difficult scenarios within the dressing room and in the club and then you start looking at managers like Gareth Southgate maybe he’s the answer gram Potter maybe he’s the answer so if you’re man united maybe you look and to replicate what you did back in 1986 when you hire someone who is outperforming way above his station like Sir Alex Ferguson was when he’s winning European Cup with there’s Cup Final against Real Madrid 21 with Aberdine yeah laughably above his station yeah so like Aber Mass overachieved it’s unbelievable what they did he broke a duopoly turned them into a big club uh still are somehow now uh what you have there is a manager obviously overperforming who’s like that now there’s no one really around you could say like back in 2003 or whatever it was Josie Mourinho was the sort of similar massively overperforming with Porto there’s no one really around now at that level who’s available Javi Alonzo would be an example of someone who’s doing that right now but not available so then you look at um someone closer to home who’s who’s overperforming in very close to where Manchester is MHM and you start looking at Kieran McKenna IP switch but you look at what Kieran McKenna is doing of course he was managing well assistant managing at man united before back to my very early point about how well-run clubs are now ipswitch were bought by uh Game Changer put in loads of money so they’re a good squad in League one they have this clear strategy and vision and they’re building players and a team around the coach who’s obviously very good at what he’s doing and so that has worked the structure of the business is successful and works well and so they keep moving up and up and so McKenna is now benefiting from having that structure around which makes them look really really good there could be loads of managers who might benefit from having that structure around them that we just don’t know about and that’s part of the risk of who you hire who you fire so where do you want to get risk of a manager he might actually be really good but the structure is not quite there it’s one I always think this with Hollywood actors JJ where are they excellent actors or are they just excellent at picking film do you have any examples no he does yeah I mean it’s the Manchester United one is really really interesting I think it be just slightly Beyond Bayern Munich it’s the best example of why 10 H is still I think in the job because I think if you were running Manchester United right now what do you it really is a hard question to answer what do you do John is this a a general shift is this an outlier season is this something we’re going to continue to see do you think because some some of the some of the examples we’ve heard are things that maybe will change permanently as opposed to just uh temporarily well we talked about last season a ton of managers being fired um and then this season not many being being fired at all and I think the big question is whether or not that just the one season where because there were so many managers turned over last season reset their cycle and everyone’s relatively happy whether or not that means we start trending back up again I don’t know but part of me does think that as we’ve been talking about the financial concerns that clubs now have to deal with it feels like you know this is the season where teams have started getting points deductions for it this is the the the season where teams are being made aware of the fact that from a financial point you have to be long- termist and you have to be sustainable I think that maybe that will result in fewer managers stackings going forward but again it could just be a one-off um and we’ll have to wait and see to find out what do you think yes there we go if you like this video please consider subscribing to the channel the athletic is home to some of the world’s best sports journalists including David onstein Amy Lawrence and Rafa honstein with the latest transfer news and insights on every Premier League story that matters the athletic.com puts you inside football and you can try it for free now for 30 days see the link in the description