2024 PGA Championship Picks, Research, Course Preview, Audience Giveaways | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 PGA Championship Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:36 Quick Notes/Giveaways
3:20 Course Flyover/Notes
13:10 Course Stats
18:28 2014/Event History
28:45 Field/Stat Model
42:38 Key Stats
36:28 Guess The Odds
43:39 Nicklaus Courses
47:01 Long Courses
53:48 Bentgrass
55:58 PGA/US OPEN
1:04:20 Mixed Condition Model Results

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of mayo experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy the year’s second major PGA Championship from VA Halla Golf Club will’ll be taking a look at the field the rules in terms of the cut rules top 70 and ties this week don’t forget that the stats that matter a course preview and everything that you need to know to get yourself prepped Byron and I have already done the player-by-player breakdown that is out on Mayo media Network right now for the video if you want to see both of us chatting about it with all the fancy Graphics you just want to listen to the podcast easy it’s on the audio podcast feed for the pat Mayo experience but I’m giving away some gifts this week to you good people out here so smash the like that will always help us share the show around that will always help and sub to Mayo media network but if you want to get your hands on some giveaway prizes of $500 cash that’s one of the prizes there are two annual memberships to Fantasy national.com and a one-month membership to shipet nation.com as generously donated by Tambo who will appear on this show on Wednesday breaking down the DraftKings picks and all of the final bets weather and what you need to know know at the very last second about the PGA Championship but in order to get into the draw for these things a lot of the stuff you’ve already done and that means you’re still in the draw for it before but if you’re new or you haven’t done it this is how you can help us out you can follow Mayo media Network on Instagram that will get you five ballots in the draw ditto for Tik Tok ditto for the free newsletter which will have additional information coming at you for free all week long you can subscribe rate and review the pat Mayo experience audio podcast on Apple or Spotify that will get you five ballots a piece shockingly enough all this information is actually down in the description as well with all the handy 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nation one which is 100 bucks for the month so easy ways to do that they all support the show so we can continue to bring all the stuff for free the big one is is if you want more content especially when we’re going to President’s Cup this year code Mayo at Underdog fantasy that is the biggest thing you can do to help out both Mayo media Network the fantasy golf degenerates the P Mayo experience and if you’re a fan of free and more content that is what you need to do all right help us out over here code Mayo at Underdog fantasy let’s get talking about the course Valhalla Golf Club playing as a par 71 for this PGA Championship 769 yards 1 bent grass green the average green size a mere 5,000 square ft the number of sand bunkers 62 7 holes with water in play and this was a Jack Nicholas design in 1986 big year for Jack one of the Masters as an old man in designing a course which would go on to host now its fourth PGA Championship has hosted a Ryder Cup and it’s been at the Forefront really o over the past three decades or so as a major venue in the American Golf Scene they re rebuilt all the greens in 2011 you saw these at the 2014 PGA Championship so it’s nothing new and they resurfaced the te’s in Fairways changing them from bent grass to zoa grass in 2021 and honestly there’s maybe nothing funnier than a golf club espousing the virtues and sustainability of the environment because they took the Bold stance of changing grass types frankly to save money on water but they won’t tell you that part they can B bury horo with themselves on the back all day long for saving the planet as long as the Price Is Right if anyone was ever wondering how you get people to turn to alternative ways of thinking if solar power was super cheap everything would run off solar power I know this is not breaking news but it’s just hilarious when you see these country club guys be we’re trying to save the environment with a better strain of grass for our Golf Club yeah you don’t have to water as much pal figure it out well well sorry we did figure it out the project consisted of changing the Fairway Turf anti tops from bent to Zeon zoa that’s a total of 30 acres and they were installed in 3month increments and this is a warm seasoned grass with a more narrow blade than the traditional zoa grass which closely mimics the look of bent grass but tolerates much shorter mowing Heights than the traditional zoa it was changed for Myriad reasons Bentgrass is difficult to Turf manage and what’s known as quote the transition season that’s the area between mild conditions where the cool season grass thrives and the not hot humid conditions where the warm season grass thrives Zeon zoa Fairways also allow for firm and fast playing conditions all season long as opposed to the seasonality of bent grass again that Zeon zoa not Zion zoa so if you were thinking about going to protest the course this probably wouldn’t be ideal for the turf management mind you if you started walking around the course I don’t know how the uh Zeon zoa holds up for that but don’t expect protesters to be outside especially listen the Valhalla Big Wigs who were saving the money on the grass to begin with they are not going to subsidize the protesters demands for new Apple watches and a bunch of vegan meals so don’t expect that in Kentucky this week there are new te’s at 1 12 14 and 18 plus there were aesthetic changes made to a few of the holes a lot of that had to do with the Limestone outcropping around it which you will notice on TV but really doesn’t have that much change to the actual play of the course you can get now expect exposed large Limestone shelves that support a water fall around the green on 13 it’s going to look very nice i’ I’ve seen pictures of it it looks fantastic going to look even better on TV and whole 18 they changed the T box completely to create better sight lines and the water feature around the green has been enhanced for a more dramatic look when you see it from the te one of the biggest things you need to realize about the PGA Championship now versus when we saw it a decade ago in 2014 when Rory won is just the difficulty of the PGA Championship versus what it was then so when you take a look back back at 2010 Martin kimer wins at Whistling Straits over Dustin Johnson in the playoff everyone remembers that’s the one where Dustin grounded his club and what would not Lo no longer be it it’s now like a waste bunker you can ground your Club anyway he missed the playoff because of that he won at minus 11 after that minus 8 -3 – 10 – 16 for Rory when he won here in 2014 minus 20 for Jason day at Whistling Straits Jimmy Walker wins at minus 14 the year after and it did seem after that that there was a concerted effort after mean this in 2017 it was still contested in August and then it did end up switching to May which is one of the main reasons for the renovation at Valhalla this time around to deal with the more frigid conditions in May I mean frigid in Kentucky being very loose but versus what it is in August then yeah it’s much colder and much more difficult to maintain your turf management but as soon as qua Hollow in 2017 it’s like the PGA of America said you know what we’re going to make this more Us opening it’s going to be super long it’s going to be more penal rough and the winning scores are just frankly going to be higher we saw that with a single digigit winner in 2017 at Quail Hollow with Justin Thomas it got away from them a little bit with Brooks Kea in 2016 but I believe there was only four players that were double digits under par he wins at minus 16 then after that four the past five Champions have all been single digit some pretty high ones as well Brooks wins again at Beth Page that’s at minus 8 that’s by Two Strokes morawa wins 20 2020 no fans during Co at Harding Park at minus 13 that’s been the easiest of the PGA championships of the past 5 Years Phil wins at minus 6 by2 over Brooks and Louie at Kiwa Justin Thomas wins in a playoff over will zot torus at Southern Hills at minus5 and Brooks won a year ago at minus 9 by Two Strokes over Victor and Scotty Sheffer at oakill of course that wasn’t very long but very narrow Fairways very thick rough which made a major impact on the entire field and especially the scoring as we went along I I think one of the major changes that you’re going to see here with the zoa grass now being populated around the course especially around the green complexes that we didn’t see a ton of runoff just for whatever reason with the conditions that they had maybe it was the bent grass but a lot of balls were sticking up instead of going to the massive roll out areas off the greens of Valhalla in 2014 but I don’t think that’s going to be the case now maybe in the forecast it does look very rainy with thunderstorm so maybe we get a very damp PGA Championship which would make the rough very very penal you might want to get some more accuracy guys on your card after that but I’m guessing that they can dry it out enough to get those firm and fast conditions that they were looking for firmer and faster than they were in 2014 obviously you can’t do anything about the weather that might make an impact but these rollout areas from around the green instead of the ball staying up and maybe even going down like Midway on some of these Hills and stopping they’re just going to go full roll out a lot like we saw at Southern Hills two years ago when Justin Thomas won in Oklahoma so keep that in mind that you’re going to have to rely little bit more on around the green play or the most precise iron play which just no one in the world has at this point to be perfect on every single hole and maybe you’re going to be able to putt from some of the off the Green in some of these it’s something we’re going to see a lot at Pinehurst in a month’s time at the US Open a lot of putting from off the green onto those upside down Bowl greens that they have at Pinehurst but that’s how Martin kimer really did I mean he had a ton of greens and regulation that year don’t get me wrong and just played fantastic golf that’s why he won by eight strokes but he was able to utilize the Texas wedge from off the green because he is a horrendous short game player but he’s one of the players and he’s one at Pinehurst two places where you can putt pretty easily from off the greens if you choose to let’s take a look at Valhalla in thre this is the third longest course to date that the PGA tour players have played this year behind Tory Pine South and corales it is the third smallest green complexes they’re going to see at 5,000 square ft behind Pebble Beach in harbort toown and it’s only the third Bentgrass greens that these players will have encountered so far this year a lot of the B grass and Bermuda got changed to POA trivial so classified under POA this time around so the only actually classified bent grass greens by the ground screw of the courses of America are Augusta National and TPC Craig Ranch at Byron Nelson which we saw two weeks ago which weirdly although that is a very easy scoring course it’s very long and over 50% of the approach shots come from over 175 yards the 30% come from Beyond 200 yards which is exactly what we’re going to see this time around each of the three past winners of the PGA Championship at Valhalla were inside the top five after round one two of the three were winning after round two and Mark Brooks was in third going or sorry following the conclusion of the second round of the 1996 PGA Championship that year Mark Brooks beat Kenny Perry in a playoff at 11 under 2000 probably the most remembered PGA Championship whenever tiger is involved and it’s a historic Tiger Tiger moment we remember it tiger birdied 17 and 18 to force a draw with Bob may but then we remember the first playoff hole when he walks in the big putt points at it drops down the the dark red shirt almost very reminiscent to the shade that I’m wearing right now in this video it will just be etched in our memories over time that one drop it’s almost it’s not quite as famous as the drop of the Nike ball at the Masters to beat Chris De Marco on 16 but the point is up there in alltime Tiger Woods moments Ryder Cup in 2008 the US wins 2014 as I mentioned Rory beat Phil hitting into them into the Darkness playing with burn whis I will still remember burn weisberger melting down in the final group playing with Rory Phil and Ricky were just ahead of them and darkness was coming it was it was here at that point and Rory and burn basically hit into Ricky and Phil onto the 72nd hole to finish off on the Sunday over everything else 2008 the boys Junior PGA Championship was there your winner OA batia back-to-back winner of the boys Jr PGA Championship defending his title from 2017 again if you want to do the Deep dive on the research yourself fantasy national.com Mayo will get you 20% off all membership levels and you get the exclusive member app for Android and iOS it is the only way you’ll ever follow golf again it’s amazing I would highly recommend I I would pay 250 bucks just to get that app I mean I spent more than that because you know I put my money into this company but uh it’s amazing I’m so glad with how it has turned out so far everyone agrees it’s been an amazing app but you get that along with all of the other tools that come with the PGA Championship 156 players in the field as mentioned top 70 in ties are going to make the cut so let’s take a look at the course itself for Valhalla GC so we’ll take a look at this and what happened in 2014 to get a better sense of everything now the course is going to be a little bit different we talked about the different grass types and it it has been lengthened a lot over the time by about a 100 yards or so uh if you see this is kind of fun that number 18 is the easiest hole on the course it’s a power five know 50% birdie rate 4% Eagle rate there are some other ones that have a pretty decent Eagle rate as well number four the power 4 372 yards had almost a 2% Eagle rate a 32% birdie rate it’s not often at major championships do you see a I mean it’s not it’s I guess it could be drivable on the right day but just such an easy power four uh I think that will end up playing tougher this time around yeah 32% birdie rate the second easiest hole on the course other than that you have the other two power fives number seven and number 10 uh playing as the third and fourth easiest holes on the course then you have number nine the 415 yd power four which actually plays under par we’re thinking about the hardest holes number two number six all long par fours one is 500 yards one is 495 and then you have this closing stretch very reminiscent of Quail Hollow in a way but then you have this outlier at number 18 so almost like Tory Pines not in the way that it’s situated but on the scorecard how the difficulty ends up playing itself out the third fifth and sixth most difficult holes on the course are 14 15 and 16 with number 17 being a hole that the field Bogies almost 20% of the time with only a for 18% birdie rate before you get this gimme on 18 it’s not the easiest I mean it’s the easiest hole on the course but I wouldn’t say it’s like the easiest hole in the world very high Eagle rate very high birdie rate at almost 50% there’re still an 8% bogey rate you can get it going badly on this hole but the doubles are worse are almost non-existence where going through 14 15 and 16 a long power three a shortish power four which is just very hard and then the longest power four on the course at 508 yards number 16 I’ll have double or wor rates of 3 6 and 6% with bogy rates all over 20% with number 16 pushing up around 30% so that’s what we see from the scorecard itself we take a look at what happened in 2014 by round approach and putting was the main Cog but approach wasn’t even double what off the te was and around the green did play a huge Factor if we shrink that down a little bit more to just the top five and we see approach was actually the lowest I’ve never actually seen that before and that’s what a one-year sample can give you uh of everyone who was on putting meant the most I mean putting is going to mean the most but that’s not the most predictive thing going but just a balanced T to Green game was so necessary at this course and it will I probably would guess it will be very much the same thing this time around and it was you beat up on the per fives that’s what you had to do if you didn’t beat up on the per fivs you were cooked at this course the par 3es didn’t even really make that big of a difference versus the overall scoring they’re all just kind of hard no one was making up ground the ground was made up on those par fives taking a look the holes it’s pretty balanced but it’s the average shot distribution which frankly sticks out a ton I know I said over uh 50% of the shots come from 175 plus and they do it’s just 34% of them come from 200 plus you don’t usually see that big of a spike it’s fairly flat actually outside of that 175 to 200 18% 177% from 150 to 175 12% from 125 to 150 then you have your shots from around the green and layups that sort of thing the cut line 2014 was plus two uh probably be back around there as well the average driving distance was a little bit lower at this course although if it doesn’t get the sogginess and the rain that maybe we’re expecting then maybe that will roll out a little bit longer so be playing from the rough is something that you’re going to see a little bit more three putts for round per round were a little bit lower but a lot of that has to do that these are such small greens versus your average PGA Tour event that they were just inherently going to be lower like you see at Pebble and harbort toown it’s it’s hard to three put when the green greens are super small driving accuracy was up versus a Tour event greens regulations were down so very difficult greens to hit probably harder if it’s firmer this year but players were finding the Fairway more often than not and we take a look back at the leaderboard from that year you’re going to see an Eclectic mix of players guys who gain Strokes off the te by enlarge but do it in vastly different ways so if we just go take a look at one of Rory’s 25 PGA TOUR Championship wins we take a look back at 2014 again you can access all of this on fantasy national.com uh you can go get the 20% off right now at Fantasy national.com mayo or get yourself into those giveaway draws all the giveaways are mentioned with links down in the description of the podcast and video right now they’ll also be reiterated into the newsletter at the very top uh when the new newsletter comes out on Monday morning but if you just want to make quick work of it and try to get into the draw for a free annual membership to Fantasy National you can go do that using Code Mayo Underdog Fantasy by getting that $250 deposit bonus plus a free Square for the PGA Championship with code Mayo it’s probably something you’re going to want to do you can win money off that anyway and you might get extras thrown in on top of it Rory beats Phil Stenson and Ricky were tied for third Ryan pmer and Jim furick both tied for fifth Ernie Stricker Mayhan moiko alonein and vict du and Jimmy Walker round up the top 10 even after that like this couldn’t be a weirder mix of guys off poor poor bur I thought it’s funny that I thought he shot 80 in the final round he only shot 74 in the final round but just to see him drop so so gracefully I suppose I guess it wasn’t all that graceful off the very top of the leaderboard uh playing in the final group to come T15 is kind of crazy we have like Chapel Snedigar Brooks came 15th day and Graham delette all 15th so you have these guys that are massive ball Strikers like someone like Graham delet grem dlet was like sort of like the homeless man’s Brooks Kea he was Brooks Kea if Brooks couldn’t chip or Putt and a bad back that was grie duet’s profile so it’s not a shocker that you see long straight Brooks with a good short game up there but at the top like Rory just went and mashed he sent full driver and the rest of his game is good enough to make up for it philed the same way we know that he’s not the most accurate player on Earth but he can bombit even back then and His short game and putting I mean his putting is always hit or miss but the short game is Untouchable versus the history of the PGA Tour he’s one of the best short game players of all time Stenson not so great around the greens but what does he do differently than a lot of these guys on this list well he has minus Distance by and large but he’s very accurate same with Jim furick Steve Stricker another one just relying on accuracy to get themselves up and let’s see if that translated through in the actual stats of the 2004 PGA Championship you see Rory so Phil missed the fairways Rory gained on the field so did Stenson and Ricky Fowler in terms of Fairways gain you see furick gained a ton against the field funny that Stricker didn’t do that he must have gained 110 billion Strokes putting then and that’s the outlier why he’s ended up being there that would be my guess we can take a look at that in a second but driving distance gain Stenson was slightly below field average furick was way below field average but gained with all that accuracy Stricker was way below and was slightly Below in terms of Fairways and everyone else like sniger lost with distance but gained a bunch on Fairways and then you see the guys that you know really missed it and were like way below Jimmy Walker was way below the field in terms of Fairways gain but he gained I mean what’s 45 on the field that is top 10 in the field in terms of distance so Bubba LED all players in terms of driving distance JB Holmes Kentucky guy also way up there but everyone else did really well on the leaderboard so you have Rory you have Brooks were third second and third first and 15th on the leaderboard then it was day and Scott 15th 15th Fowler and Ryan Palmer third and fifth Graham deette there he is comes in ninth someone named jamy brce very brce he must be a PGA tour pro professional but he actually bombs it apparently so Palmer and dlet were Fifth and 15th you go to Chris Wood came 46 so a bad week all around for him outside of the driving distance but after that you have Louie Jimmy Walker and charl up next 15th 7th and 15th anyone that tells you driving distance doesn’t matter at PGA championships these days or us opens is crazy don’t listen to them it is the number one thing that we need to be targeting off the te we’ll splice driving distance when we modeled this out along with Strokes gained off the tea we don’t want to overlook Fairways gained at all it is important we can see the different paths to be able to do this but driving distance sticks out amongst almost everything else uh Fairways gained you know these guys you have one guy inside the top 10 of Fairways who finished inside the top 10 that was Jim furick he had Chapel who came 13th they were third and fourth Rory crazy enough was 15th in accuracy for the week but everyone else is just kind of down there it kind of shows you all these you see all these minuses in terms of driving distance on the screen with a very high Fairways gained didn’t matter these guys all finished outside the top 20 byy and large or miss the cut so you really need to put that emphasis all things being equal just lean on distance over accuracy this week good drives gained and this is it’s funny that this isn’t more telling because good drives gained if you hit your green and regulation you’re going to be good didn’t really translate all that much left avoidance uh that you see no nothing really doing there right avoidance nothing really doing there greens and regulation gained you think that guys hitting a bunch of on small greens especially gaining greens and regul against the field it was helpful but it wasn’t like everyone was populated near the top of the leaderboard just cuz they hit Greens in regulation no it was driving distance again that’s what we’ve seen versus all of these other stats that we’re looking at it’s driving distance leading the pack maybe sand saves sand saves were actually up there Stenson du bason were number one and two third and seventh on the leader board you had Brian Norman and Jordan SM the next two they both missed the cut Chapel did very well there it’s funny that Chapel must have lost 80 Strokes putting if he had these he was the only guy on this board with positives across the board and still only came in 13th Ryan Palmer very good out of the sand Westwood and Willet were really good that year but it wasn’t imperative I mean better a better way to go about it is just don’t put the ball in the bunker then you’re going to be fine Strokes gained from 2014 we have we see off the tea Rory boom mashes was he number one number one by a stroke over du or by 0. one of a stroke over duol and then a full stroke over Rose and Grace and chapel and DEET oh yeah there we go there’s I mean it’s it’s crazy that I guess the approach play for Chapel he was hitting a lot of grein and regulation but he wasn’t actually putting it all that close to the hole that’s where greens and regulation Strokes gained approach not that Strokes gained approach is the end all Beall of anything but that is probably why uh you see his number down he’s just leaving a lot of lag putting and two putting for par and not generating enough birdie chances to contend with the very top of the leaderboard but by and large Strokes gained off the tea was very predictive only one guy you see Ross Fisher gained three and a half Strokes off the T and he ended up missing the cut but that’s where you see a lot of them up there let’s see Strokes gained approach Louie Jimmy Watney Stricker oh there’s yeah so here’s Stricker Stricker lost three Strokes off the t two strokes around the green 7.6 on approach nine on the greens that is not a way that you really want to attack this I mean if you can do that then yes attack the course that way sort of an outlier I would guess get a nine Strokes has to be there 9.2 for Stenson so Stenson was all putting so was Steve Stricker so again the two two of the three players that I pointed out as not great with distance more Fairway type guys minus distance versus the plus distance had to do it with nine Strokes putting and 9.2 strokes and 8.9 Strokes putting that’s how they found themselves there so again you probably don’t want to rely just because you see those names pop up that doesn’t tell you the story of why they ended up where they did in third and Seventh Place it was because they ran such a nuclear putter for example like Rory had a great weak putting he gained 4.4 Strokes Ricky had a great weak putting he gained 4.3 Strokes those guys gained more than double what Rory and Ricky did on the greens by themselves you got to make your puto because there’s Phil let’s try to see where are some weird outliers here so Stricker’s the weird outlier losing off the te and around the greens other than that like Phil was very balanced T to Green if we just sort by T to Green duas Sal was the best day was second best day drops Strokes putting how about that and then Rory was third Rose only wasn’t up there because he lost three Strokes putting I mean weirdly to take a look at this this was duay solence tournament to lose if he had just broke even with the field he probably gets himself into that playoff or even just middles out what Rory did he doesn’t need to gain 4.4 instead of turning two minus two into plus two which isn’t even a lot at this tournament based on where the leaders were at he’s either wins or he’s in that playoff funny to see like when you retroactively go back and re [ __ ] everything and try to reconstruct how players got to where they were and why they were such let Downs so in terms of T to Green it’s funny that only the three of the top four in t green actually lost R’s putting then you have no one until you get down to the juice lener yaos Lon from the Netherlands he end up coming 26 uh it was very good T green most of that on approach some of it chipping but if you’re just looking for the balance across delet was very good balance-wise so was Adam Scott so was Phil Mickelson Brooks was very good in that regard just didn’t make enough putts to set sear himself from the pack I’m betting Brooks kept go to win by the way 16 to1 is the best number I can find right now I don’t think it’s going to get any worse by Monday if you’re watching this on Monday I’ve already bet Brooks because the betting show is probably already out he just seems perfectly situated for this course and the way that PGA Championship setups are currently constructed so a full grasp of TAA green is something that you’re going to need you’re just not going to hit enough greens and regulation to say you know what my chipping doesn’t matter that’s what I worry about for someone like Victor hland we try to take a of a different look at some of the different players we broke this down on the player by player show but it Victor I want to Victor havland just Strokes gained around the green over the past 24 rounds 139th in the field and taking a look at that a little bit more deeply fortunately putts really well on bu grass that is in his back pocket we saw him play well at the ma I he didn’t play well at the master he played well at the Masters the year before that but just The Strokes game to around the green have been abysmal like it’s it’s frightening how bad they are when you lose seven at the Players I mean just throw that one out it would still be bad if you threw that one out I don’t know how you can and he’s chipped better at major championships than he has done in your standard PGA Tour events I will give Victor that but I just don’t know how you can go that route uh with the amount of greens and regulation that are likely to be hit this week let’s build a rudimentary model and then maybe we’ll try to do some Nicholas course type stuff and build a mixed condition model to give us a different type of view of how this course is actually going to play itself out so we want to into new model mode on fantasy national.com slma to get yourself Val Hala the Rainbow Bridge to Valhalla do we want Strokes Gain totle No we’re going to throw that out we’re going to add a stat driving distance it’s the the first thing that really leapt out leaped out to me off the screen We’ll add that and we’ll just throw in just your Strokes gain T to Green who is a very balanced player on the board that doesn’t mean that we don’t want to see individually the others off the tea approach but where we have them waited twice they don’t need to be as significant in the waiting as maybe they would be at different times I don’t want to say that putting is irrelevant because it’s not uh you’re going to have to make some nice par saves from 10 to 15 feet so by and large I try to go 5 to 10 10 to 15 but this is a major championship so we’ll do 10 to 15 and 15 to 20 feet we’ve seen 10 to 15 feet be relatively sticky over time but when we throw it into the mixed condition model we’ll get bent grass putting uh bent grass putting and major championship putting in there as well well so we’ll go 10 to 15 15 to 20 and we’ll take a look at proximity from Beyond 200 yards instead of just the par three range of 200 to 225 so where are we at here with proximity proximity 200 plus we’ll also put in Eagles gained which kind of coincide with everything but we did see that there are two to three holes especially number 18 where you can make Eagles you make an eagle in a major championship it’s going to be you’re going to be having a good time on the leaderboard especially if you’re playing on Underdog or DraftKings or any daily fantasy where there are bonuses associated with that as well so beyond outright betting these are avenues that you can take to try to enhance some players from lower positions because they end up scoring more fantasy points than anything else what else should we throw on to here I don’t know why why I just did that I threw on 225 par three did not mean to let’s do the longer par fours we’ll go par fours 400 you know we’ll say it’s 500 plus cuz some of these play uphill a little bit that they probably actually measure more around 500 yards anything else so how do we do this there is no one simple solution to which stat should be in a model or which waiting that you should give anything but we saw driving distance matters let’s wait that pretty highly T to Green mattered let’s wait that just around the same so we’ll go lower for off the T approach and around the green since we saw those were relatively flat again a one-year sample if I had a longer sample I could almost guarantee you that approach would be more than that we’ll go 15 and 20 about the same so these wedings are coming all in 10 9% doesn’t really matter to me I just use use the slider to give myself a visual of what I want to be more important and that is driving distance and T to Green which are now currently weighted at 26 and 25% by the time we add in the proximity Eagles and Par Four’s gain that’ll be around 20 I’m guessing so we’ll go 20% these will be the next tier down of waiting so we have that t tier one of waiting distance and T to Green coming at 22 and 21% then you have off the te approach and around the green the components of T to green and the putting 10 to 15 15 to 20 all at 8 and 9% then proximity 200 plus Eagles gained and 500 plus power fours at 5 and 4% so it just gives you a tiered system of the waiting that I want to use we shall update the model and see what the results will tell us oh shocker Scotty’s number one over the past 24 rounds who’s the worst the real deal Shawn mckel John Daly Michael block and Alexander Bal are your bottom four best players in the field Scotty sheffler wam Clark Rory Tony feno and John ROM the Liv stats and stats for players on the Asian tour or European tour are just not going to be as good as the PGA Tour stats because Liv Liv can barely get a Leaderboard on their website that works let alone calculating Strokes gain data so it’s all just taken from past Majors so rah’s performance at past majors and he still does have his past 24 events but some of the guys that left very early like let’s say Dustin Johnson for example I put in Josh Johnson and we take a look at their past 24 rounds they might all major championships or are they yeah going back to the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson would be the one before that before he ended up just playing in PGA Championship so and Masters and leaving for live so keep that in mind uh when you’re trying to do that that’s why the stats aren’t going to be the end all Beall of a lot of things uh Dustin ranks up number 12 in the model by the way he does have a win on the Liv tour so far this year after the big five you have Xander Hideki Keith Mitchell benan and minoo Lee when you wait driving distance as high as I did minwoo is going to pop out I believe he had a really nice PGA Championship a year ago and I do think that there is some stickiness now year-over-year with consistent setup despite the courses all being a little bit different yeah he was 18th at last year’s PGA Championship we can look at some of the best players who’ve done that uh as I talked through with Byron on the player by player that putting together the PGA Championship and the US Open into one bucket might be a better way to go about things since they’ve all played pretty similarly over time so some of the names that you would guess would be up there Brook Scotty Victor last year Bryson of course I like Bryson this week as well if people need to know uh I’m betting Brooks at 16 I’m waiting to see if there’s going to be a better number on Monday morning if it’s not it’s going to be 16 I bet siah Gala at 66 to1 however as of this recording he is 90 to one on FanDuel if you want to get in the game for that and I had bet Windam Clark at 66 to1 to win the PGA Championship in February I’m still pretty good with that number since he’s going to be he’s currently 30 to1 35 to1 to win here so again you kind of see it driving distance Above All Else Brooks Bryson Victor Scotty Cam Davis kittama even straa no slouch off the tea then Rory then you get to some of your shorter hitters I mean Cameron Smith is actively bad off the tea he just has to do everything else well if he can just somehow break even for the week off the tea the rest of his game is good enough to win I don’t love him at a long course like this to win to come T9 T4 whatever it might be absolutely just it always does feel like Augusta National and open championships are going to be the venues for cam Smith versus some of the other guys like I mean we’ve seen it with Brooks he’s only won US opens and PGA championships Bryson was in the mix at the Masters I’ll give him that he was in the mix kind of at St Andrews which is sort of an outlier amongst the open Roa but his game plan is going to be us opens and PGA championships and we’ve seen the results coincide with that Connor is another one although he’s been very good at the Masters some of the time good at PGA championships as well champ Lowry another one US opens and PGA championships just with the type of game that they have old Michael block there he is good for him Xander is another one that you would want at PGA championships at us opens morawa has played really well both at PGA championships and US opens pendrith was top 30 in this field a year ago coming off a win two weeks ago at the Byron Nelson which has very similar approach shot buckets I don’t necessarily think that’s going to be the most predictive course cuz that’s a scoring course and obviously this is not but nice to see that he finished very high up in a PGA championship before going through anything else if you want more information on some of the different players and previous results that go into translating to major championships Byron lindu who I did that show with at the model Maniac on X has already tweeted out a thread of just waiting past championships mainly PGA and US opens and giving them a scoring throughout that will zot torus very good ludvig in his one major championship very good has never played a GA or a US Open and did WD this week with a knee injury I would expect him to be fine however overall past 24 rounds driving distance-wise let’s let’s extend this a little bit you got D Dean burer uh who’s been playing on Liv playing really well on Liv one in South Africa the Alfred Dunhill in December one at deral another bombers core so keep burm Easter on your radar for this week rank 16th in the modeling third in driving distance the top 10 in driving distance overall no shocker Bryson number one Ben Anne number two burmaster Rory Windam Clark round out the top five minwoo ROM tusty Gary Woodland Vince Norman Dustin Johnson are next on the list then you have Keith Mitchell Taylor pendrith Fen out Justin Thomas and Jordan SMI Ryan Fox Tim Wilden Mr corn fairy Tor himself Andy ogl tree who plays on live Lucas C Bear also plays on live or Lucas Herbert as the English like to call him which he is so that’s probably his name it’s not like he is from France and and smoking the long cigarette if he did he’d be look at he tried to win the championship like his main man who should have won in 2013 the with a great aircut in theer and the long cigarette you know Stephen Jagger also up there Kitty Yama another name that we saw last year inside the top five on the leaderboard Neiman theala Burns then you’re into your Brooks Jake knap Patrick Rogers Xander morona Don the [ __ ] Rolla cam young up there cam Young’s major I mean I want to emphasizes again because we lose money betting this loser every week when he doesn’t win however major championships are have been amazing to cam young in his very short career so let’s take a look at cam young and take a look at some of these let’s see second at the Open Championship third at the PGA Championship in 2022 seventh at the Masters this year eighth at the Open Championship sorry eight seventh at the Masters a year ago Ninth at the Masters this year eight at the Open Championship year ago that’s five top 10 in majors in how many major championship appearances oh yeah eight zotus and Cameron Young have the biggest discrepancy between Strokes gain total at major championships versus their Baseline on the PGA tour so keep that in mind with those two guys they should be locks in your DraftKings lineups this week I I don’t care how they finish up at the Wells Fargo Championship irrelevant erroneous information you want to be playing both of those two guys got it good we can keep that that rolling then so that’s what we’re looking at for the model rank so one of the other things that we can do that’s very cool as a part very cool very hip like it was a German Sage or a German nightclub but I don’t know why that ended up going French at the end but we can do the rolling report for this so we can take the rolling report and we can wait this pretty easily we can edit the rolling model and we can put our waiting in for whatever we want to do just wait them all the same to see how people go from the last four rounds to the last 12 rounds ideally you probably want to rate 12 24 8 12 and 24 higher than 50 then 100 then four coming in but to see if it’s any sort of difference uh if you just wait it over time you do get slightly different results than just the past 24 rounds as obvious by when we’re looking at it you can see this is what we looked at right here for the past 24 this is what we’re looking at for the past eight turns out Scotty shefford is very very good but when we look at the model overall Scotty Windam Clark Rory benan Tony feno then Hideki Bryson Keith Mitchell troll Hatton Dustin Johnson that is the overall top 10 then you got Xander Thomas ROM Brooks minwoo Jagger the gala Adam Scott toasty pendrith that’s the top 20 and outside of that some of your bigger names baa is number 23 cam Smith number 22 Luke list and Jordan Smith 27 and 28 I have no idea what Jordan Smith has been up to on the DP World Tour so far this year should probably turn to the DP World Tour picks and bet shows Monday evening with Tom Jacobs and Skyler hul on the Mayo media Network as they will be previewing most of the players players from both the Asian tour and the DP World Tour who are in this field to find you values kittama he’s up there as well and actually has some very good ball striking coming into this week shank is up there too but kittama to take a look at him look at this ball striking the TD green has been awesome all year long just overall TD green pretty good and then before that it was just ball striking couldn’t chip then he lost a bunch on his putting you’re probably not going to bet him to win this tournament but at the same time it’s not the craziest thing right I do want to wait to the parameters that I set so I want to make four and 100 the same and I want to make eight a little bit lower than 12 and 24 which I’ll have the highest and I’ll wait that the same as 50 almost build like a little mini pyramid here for all the waiting because I do want to throw this into my mixed condition model and we’ll see if this does give us any sort of different results on the matter and it doesn’t seem like it has even with those waiting we got any new names jump up Sheffer Clark Rory benan feno top five still Hideki Mitchell Hatton Xander Bryson are the top 10 I’m probably goingon to end up betting Bryson this week I I just think that he’s playing very well at the moment he gears himself up for the PGA Championship and the US Open and all the majors and this is the right style of course for him I would wish his around the green game was a little bit better I’m guessing that’s why he’s getting hampered a little bit but people really underrate how good Bryson is putting wise and I think that’s going to play a major factor here Brooks is after that minwu so no real new names you see a bump up for baa a bump up for Jagger a bump up for Dustin Johnson Dustin rating higher than ROM is not something that I would have expected Adam Scott rates out very well too kittama still up there there’s Connors uh K Nakajima burter comes in at number 30 cam young is there at number 28 spe SEIU hogi they’re all inside the top 50 along with Neeman and McNeely Harris English I like Russell Henley for this event these are just the types of courses that he has played very well but the main reason to do this was to throw this into the mix condition model where we’re going to see if we can find a way to not Scotty number one uh and rolling model mixed condition model yes we want the rolling model total result into this and we’re going to I the last time I built one of these was at the Masters so let’s get rid of everything that was in the mixed condition model to date except for the Valhalla rolling report of the custom stat model so these are going to equal themselves out now and as we change this in real time you’ll see your mixed condition model ranking change so I want to completely wipe the Slate again and now we’re going to go back to try to build some different things into the systems we’re going to go to my Strokes gain model which if you ever want to see it I just have a bunch of different stuff up where it’s mainly weighted total off the te approach weighted a little bit more around the green and putting T to Green marginally as well just is a an amalgamation of those three things but you know ball striking short game I have weighted at zero because they are combinations of the other one I just like them up on the screen when I go and look at it so the first thing that we’re going to do is take a look at Jack Nicholas courses architect Jack Nicholas there we go and who do we see here average round we have passed 24 rounds in right now that might be too many if you’re looking at the courses ever when one of these filters is Click just look here on the left-and side Glenn Abbey former host of the Canadian open mirfield Village for both the workday and Memorial Tournament the Nicholas tournament course the American Express PGA National Champion for the what was once known as the Honda Classic now the cognizant classic PJ West is a Nicholas design along with Pete Dy and the concession Golf Club where Mora cow Wen and Valhalla GC are all the courses that are included into this so some guys samples are going to be way off so let’s just take a look at the average and see who gains the most Strokes Nick Dunlap that actually shouldn’t be super shocking since he dominated at the American Express earlier this year to get his tour card as an amiter so it’s Dunlap and bur Easter in one round outside of that no with 18 rounds Point 2.76 average Strokes gain per round K Mora is by far the best player in the field with 18 rounds at Nicholas courses he has been amazing at these layouts oh my God Sheffer is number three oh that’s tough so morawa morawa toasty only has the one round we’re going to throw out all the low round guys we’re going to say 10 Rounds or more at these courses you have morawa Eric Cole Scotty Sheffer Patrick hlay John ROM Shane Lowry Rory see Kim Russell Henley Max Homa Victor havland will zures phenow spe Denny McCarthy is up there as well Chris Kirk and Xander are also very high up at Jack Nicholas courses anyone who’s like really actively bad at this Jake nappen one round with a lot of rounds let’s see Chad Ramy and eight rounds at Nicholas courses has been piss poor malady Grayson and vas have been bad Blair and hogi have been really bad at Nicholas designs over the course of their career as have John Daly I guess that doesn’t really matter Alex SMY has the gim Reaper who was the last man into the field so far cam Smith has played very poorly at Nicholas designs let’s take a look at that more in depth which ones has he played Memorial he was always really bad WGC Mexico at the concession he was okay but nothing great at the same time he’s just been really bad at Memorial over the years is frankly what it comes down to guys that have been really good at Memorial Bryson has a win there Ben Anna’s lost in a player there playoff there morawa has won and lost in a playoff Patrick Klay has won twice obviously Rah has won tiger won it Myriad times so maybe a nice look for John ROM who has very consistent yet no upside on the Liv tour so far this season uh just based on his memorial play if that’s something you wanted to look at someone like M Hughes has played really well at PGA National Tommy Fleetwood Alex noren Shane Lowry or others um who have done very well at that venue over time but those are the ones at Nicholas course we’re not we’re not going to wait Nicholas course a lot but we’re going to go Strokes gain total at Jack courses and we’re going to throw that in we’re going to wait it you know pretty pretty down there it’ll be at 9% for the moment but that’s just you know it’s going to be lower than that once we get around to it now let’s take a look at long courses cuz this is playing 7600 yards as I mentioned before it is the second large or sorry the third largest in terms of length so far this season let’s clear all our filters and reset everything once again you can always do that very handily at the top to see which filters are actually on in case something is there that you don’t necessarily remember so a there’s a lot of filters down this side you can go all the majors you can go just PJ championship in US Open you can go by the state of Kentucky if you really want to uh but we’re going to go to over 7,400 yard courses and we’re going to change that to average and difficult scoring relative to par because we know this isn’t going to play easy so we’ll just exclude corales and the easy rounds that it plays or TPC Bunny Ranch because we don’t really want to talk about those too much we’ll do this past 24 rounds again uh Sheffer just more than double the next best player who is Xander sheffler Xander OE H Rasmus hoard in only six rounds but he gets himself up there as well I bet you the Masters in terms of Strokes game total would be one for him no the Masters I guess it wasn’t meeting that criteria see yeah scoring average to difficult over 74 because I think it came in under just by like a shade uh for some of the rounds this time Lashley Nate Lashley really cam Smith so cam Smith bad on Nicholas courses good on Long courses in general sunjay who’s having a a career revitalization at the Wells Fargo Championship and doesn’t look like complete disaster did win in Korea three weeks ago Windam Clark Rory ludvig there’s Jordan Smith again will zaurus Brenan Todd Russell Henley so Todd and Henley are first appearance of Todd another appearance of Henley let’s put a star next to his name Raman Brooks there’s matu pavon in only 15 rounds Reed Connor another mention of Connors that pops up Hideki has been populating these a lot so was morawa theala Lowry you see canle is still up there a little bit so we’re going to throw in and we’re just going to sort by TD green now and see what that tells us any sort of a different story yes is actually the answer to that Dustin Connors Sheffer matama H are the best te to Green in this sense whereas Connors loses Strokes putting and so does Brooks who is next on the list Jordan Smith sorry Brooks slightly positive with putting Jordan Smith loses a bunch because that’s what he does he Sor he loses Strokes around the green Brooks is the one who lost marginally around putting but Jordan Smith historically very bad on the greens then you have feno zot Taurus and cam young also very good te to Green in the sense this would be the one that I’d really be honing in on the one I’ll add to the mixed condition model over anything shocking to see duson up there TI green however on courses of this length other guys you have up there Rory Xander oet again I mean o is going to be popular I hope he comes dead last at Wells fergo so not everyone is going to be on board Rio first appearance of him we saw seu and there’s Henley again gu Woodland Chris Kirk morawa kley Rio hun is up there as well so is Fleetwood hogi despite the bad Nicholas form is better on these longer courses as is the glove the Glover lover then you have Windam Clark who drops huge from I believe third on this list in total mainly because he was gaining over6 Strokes per round on the greens was bad around the greens and just like okay off the ton approach when we take a look back at the some of these longer courses over time I wonder mind you if this is going to be something that we see Wells Fargo if we just you know take a look by date where does this go back to so some of his rounds go back to 2021 when I would argue that he’s really a different player overall so if we take a look at his te de green since basically let’s say last year in general so he was bad at the farmers and he was good at the Arnold Palmer and he’s been great ever since so since he won and since last year’s Bay Hill tournament he has been excellent on course of this length so if you did want to shrink down the sample maybe we can do that maybe that’s something that’s going to be a little bit more beneficial to what we’re looking at at the moment we’ll shrink the sample down to past 12 rounds to see if any new names come up because burying Windam Clark that low on courses where he’s played so well seems wrong so we’ll try to see if we can get it a bit more right in that sense so now that we do it Windam Clark ends up inside the top 10 which makes a lot more sense past 12 rounds we’re seeing Dustin Scotty Brooks Hideki baa wow number five here here Connor’s number six Glover number seven feno still up there as well so we’ll add Glover to that list cuz he continues to pop up I’m just looking for guys towards the middle to back end of the field that we should be going with an and Jagger are two others in that mid tier that continuously pop their heads up Hatton as well uh it’s not the first time that we’ve seen Hatton on any of these lists funny that tiger is still up there at these long courses and Henley hubard putam G duffner duffner really sewo gets a more elevated ranking as does yeah Jordan Smith continues to be up there I got to throw on I I think it’s Jordan Smith has appeared on enough of these lists now that I feel confident that we should probably look him up to see how he has been doing so far this year currently the world’s number 97th ranked golfer doing what he does actually the results haven’t been so bad uh in the Giannis workware open he was T2 in South Africa then you have t21 in Germany 37th in India 24th at the isps in Japan 3 weeks ago t23 in China so it’s not been bad he open the year I believe the Dubai Invitational was the one that Rory won he was T4 to start the year so only two miscuts on the year again these are against weaker fields on the DP World Tour the DP World Tour has been as weak as it has ever been at the moment they’re take stopping and starting going to different parts of the world but it is nice to see his consistency has been there sorry this is one where fleetw beat Tommy and thirsty Lawrence and then you had Molinari Jordan Smith thorbjorn olison who ended up getting a win later on the morona donon before he left for live a guido our guy Rasmus Hoy guard up there as well howong another guy who was once a 36hole leader at a PGA Championship that was in 2020 at TBC Harding Park then he grinded all night under the lights and cus proclaimed that of course he was going to win look at him grinding on the course with the lights coming in and then he just imploded on the weekends we’re going to add T to Green past 12 rounds uh into the mixed condition model we’ll speed this up a little bit now to try to figure this all out for us uh we can see in the mixed condition model the mixed condition model does appear opposite doesn’t matter what filters are on for the Mixed condition model they will give us the same results of just what we’re looking at because they apply filters to themselves anyway bent grass green putting is going to be the next on our list so we can look at this one of two ways I’m going to do bent grass putting to begin with and we’ll look take a look at the past now 24 or so on bent and we have a long sample of bent although the recategorization a lot of these has been you know iffy to say the least but we’re going to take a look at your average and we’re going to take a look at putting your best Putters right now David P who has been a sensation he ended up winning on the Asian tour joined Liv he’s a fantastic young player who many who only follow the PGA Tour may not be very familiar with a Spanish player you know could be the new ROM who knows but he’s still very young nekima in 11 rounds has putted very well at the Bentgrass green complexes so far on the PGA tour Denny kimer Hatton Poston don’t use Poston Poston only plays well in crappy events does not play well in strong field events Fitzpatrick havin Lucas Herbert mcney there’s cam Smith again okay there’s Harris English I like Harris English for this event so I’m just going to Star him anyway Max H another one Keegan Bradley we’ve seen Keegan Bradley’s name pop up a few times uh it’s not been a great go for Keegan Bradley recently Windam Clark Sith toala Xander Burns Vic Perez olison who we just mentioned Taylor Montgomery there’s Brenan Todd again not shocking to see him up there so I wonder if there’s any like exceptionally bad Putters toasty horrible in two rounds small sample in large samples bork bad Woodland Bobby Mack zuris bad on bent but when we do the major championships that might smooth itself out too baa there’s his big detraction although his putting has drastically improved since he went to the long Putter and that’s just a fact at this point you see his putting result has not lost in any tournament since the PLAYERS Championship in March had two Spike putting rounds earlier than that but when he first came on to tour it was bad like last summer was bad for him on the greens a lot of those bent grass greens now we haven’t seen a lot of bent grass so far on tour this year so maybe he is still negatively impacted by that and can’t figure out the right speeds the right distances whatever it might be no touch on those greens or he has actually improved his putting game because he has improved every other part of his game that’s the one thing when you look back at some of these historic stats is that well is he the same player as he was two years ago is he better is he worse who knows I mean that’s what makes a lot of this difficult right so Strokes game putting on bent grass we will throw that into the mix condition model we’ll wait it you know just we’ll work on the waiting afterwards so let’s clear that out and I am going to stick with putting but what I’m going to do is use the PGA Championship and US Open only we don’t have strokes gained metrics for the Masters or the open champion maybe we do for the Open Championship I can never remember I’m going to throw those in I know that we do not for Masters because that is proprietary to the Masters I mean people can scrape them but we do not do that because we have an official contract with shot link and the PJ and we do not want our license taken away so past 24 major championship average putting let’s see here now we’re just talking I guess we have Congressional in there Congressional blue Hazel te oakill oakill Country Club Oak okay so we do have everything in here for all of those Andy ogal Tree in two rounds Cameo Vagas P hrew spda someone’s got a case of the spove do rose I wonder what I think it might just be taking PGA Championship data though if we look at it for strokes gain putting oh no we do have US Open putting as well so it’s just the US Open and but not US Open from every year US Open from select years that’s always fun great thanks thanks for the help USGA on this front but over the past 24 rounds let’s go past 12 of these to see if there’s anyone who sticks out this might not be the right Avenue I might not even add this in when it goes down to it because there just might not be enough data to tell us anything cam Smith Hatton there’s haros English Again Sam Burns Brooks no shocker there minwoo is puted very well so is Mac Hughes in major championships all right let’s just kind of throw all these out let’s not look at the putting for those we’ll stick with just bent grass putting and maybe regular putting overall but I will just isolate PGA Championship and US Open to get a sense and we’ll go past 24 rounds to see who has been the best overall at these tournaments because I really do think that means a ton in the sense we’ll go to average Strokes gain total sheffler Rory zot torus Xander Bryson are your top five Brooks Ram morawa Fitz minwu Lee are next on that list any weird outliers ekro only has six rounds but he’s been good Harris English Ricky fower Lucas Glover Shane Lowry Patrick Reed are up there I skipped over kley hii hin you know that they’re good players and they’ve played well at Majors trying to find those outliers Jordan Smith and only 14 rounds has done very well Denny has done really well Hatton Windam Clark pendrith so we’re going to add this one in and we’ll go Strokes gain total over that time and the final thing that we’re going to throw in here as we update it again as Chef War continues just to be number one in all of the stuff uh to clear it out we’re going to go to difficult courses we’ll go difficult to average and average to long rough length to really try to get the specifics of this on the go and we can go over 400 yeah we already kind of looked at the over 7400 design we don’t need to go major championships don’t really know about the firmness of anything so we’re just going to throw these four into a bucket so scoring needs to be average to hard versus the field versus your average of and the rough length needs to be long to average so get rid of the really easy courses who plays difficult courses really well uh over the past 24 rounds we can probably take a look at the rolling model of this as well if we really want to but we’ll take a look at the average and it’s going to be oh Scotty Sheffer big shocker Sheffer Xander norin matama Billy horel who just did recently win on the PGA tour albe it in an alternate field event but still it’s good to see the plays hard coures well Clark baa cam Smith Reed and sewo Kim would be next on that list melroy shank Bryson the gala ma Hughes it’s the second sighting of M Hughes as a deeper player and I like him at Nicholas courses as well Brooks Henley again McNeely Vic Perez Ben Griffin Jord Jordan Smith is the king of these Harris English zot tus Tom hogi Keith Mitchell so let’s throw in Strokes gain total to this as well we want to select Strokes gain total throw that in for the different parameters that we just set and maybe we’ll take a look at we we did PJ championship in US Open that’s probably good enough instead of including all the majors if you really do want to know you can just click on all the majors and see who are the best players over the past two years you can always sort it by years as well as we see on the left hand side Now quickly you can take a look at the mix condition model rankings uh they will just populate on your main screen or you can go to the top and see all the tools this is a tool that really like this is the over under tool this will be for the PGA Championship this is what I use for Underdog you type in the player’s name so you say hey I want Brooks Brooks capka and I want to say this calculates his probability now these are all amendable by whatever comes up that day on Underdog you’re looking for your over under of Strokes Bogies or Worse Fairways greens and regulation so over under 12 and a half Greens in regulation uh the over of that only hits at around a 30% clip and you can expect this detail to see his recent results player on the course results his historic player versus course results everything like that to try to get a sense of how he has been playing on courses that are similar to these and how those numbers line up on Underdog once again code Mayo on Underdog fantasy to get a deposit bonus of up to $250 and a free Square for the PGA Championship and nothing will do more to help out this show than you using Code Mayo at Underdog fantasy all right thanks for the help mixed condition model is right next to it on the screen so we can see all the waiting that we got so Valhalla rolling report we’re going to put this down around 30% Strokes gain total on Jack courses we saw that wasn’t really the most important thing going so we’ll do that you know what we’re going to throw one more thing into here before I forget I know it’s a part of the mixed condition model but what I want to go to is Fairways and greens if driving distance is really going to be that that important well it is a part of the Rolling model that we did put in I do think that we want to go to average long average difficult and this is where we will throw in the 7400 yards as well so longer courses that we have to go to uh so long courses I probably need to reup this a little bit reset the page if anything ever just kind of stalls out on you because too many filters are clicked all you got to do is just reset everything and it will make things very easy on you so we will go to 7400 yards and we want to go with where’s difficult uh we wanted rough length long and average and we will apply those filters and go to driving distance once this loads for us so it’s loaded and we will go to we can go to Total adjusted driving which is a model that I made for myself we just easily go to Fairways and greens and see what that populates we got the filters doing a lot of heavy lifting here past 24 rounds on courses that meet these and you can see balst bahill Beth pagee black and in it for some people so benan I would say is your typical run-of-the-mill PGA Tour player where he plays a lot so you got Valero Arnold Palmer Wells Fargo from last year Valero Farmers um yeah so you got a lot of those he didn’t play in a lot of the majors so they’re not going to be accredited to him we take a look at the average average driving distance Rory Dustin Bryson Rasmus hoard cam Young crazy Carol Juan minwu Lee John Daly the bista Mista lady morona Don and Andy ogul Tre ludvig so that’s a better example I think of guys who are using their distance to their advantage on courses like this overall so I want to add that to the mixed condition model as well I want to put driving distance in there to make sure that is weighted because that is what we saw uh pop it rear its ugly head or positive head I suppose so the rolling model will drop down to there driving distance will bump up to around 19 Strokes gain total last 24 that’s an yeah just that’s just overall so let’s put that up there as well because we do want to see recent form gauge that coming in last 24 PGA Championship US Open yeah I think that should be just below recent form coming in the putting on bent will rank up there as well TD green um we’ll put just below driving distance and then the Jack one will rate pretty low so 26 17 16 different waiting for all these things now we’ll update our mix condition model and we’ll jump back over to it at the very top of the screen to see what our results are going to be and we have everything waited in so let’s see we have Scotty so these are the official power rankings for the 2024 PGA Championship by the way it’s no lock that Scotty’s going to play I have no idea if his wife had the baby yet but it’s way more of an issue this time around than it was last time around at the Masters Sheffer mroy Windam Clark Dustin Johnson Xander shafley the top five Bryson Brooks ROM Hatton Matsuyama the next to fill out the top 10 the next 10 feno havin Keith Mitchell Justin Thomas cam young kley the gala benan Adam Scott Wen Neeman Fitzpatrick noren btia Burns cam Smith Harris English zalatoris McCarthy shank hom Fleetwood Lowry and then you get your spattering of morawa minwoo Corey Connors Lucas Glover Steven Jagger Jordan Smith Keegan Bradley all guys that kept popping up around they’re all inside the top 50 this week for the PGA Championship and that’ll do it on the pat Mayo experience research show again fantasy national.com Mayo get you 20% you can dig in any way that you want we have Boku content coming for you I got my entire article coming out in the newsletter the weather report everything like that will be updated every single day it’s completely free to subscribe to and you get ballots in the draw for the $500 giveaway the two fantasy National memberships the shipet nation membership we might even add more giveaways maybe save them for the US Open who knows on that front the big one you can do code Mayo Underdog fantasy.com right now get a bonus deposit of potentially up to $250 and you get a free Square for the PGA Championship probably over under half a stroke for Justin Thomas or Scotty Chef I don’t know exactly what it’s going to be but it’s one that can’t lose so I would recommend that you do that if you a new customer and boom you help out the show immensely all those giveaways how you get your ballots are in the description right now um the Instagram account is a big one we’re trying to build that up we have a lot of short clips of the more condensed version of these shows are up there as well smash the like while you’re here the bets so far that are going to be in Brooks the gala Windam Clark Windham Clark at 66 to1 the at 66 to1 Brooks at 16 to1 still waiting on that one after doing this walkth through and doing the research it does seem like maybe taking a shot on Keegan Bradley isn’t the craziest thing in the world never thought I would say that in a million years but we also have Bryson maybe Dustin depending on what his number gets to morawa Russell Henley I’m not betting all of these guys but these guys are now on the short list for me Jordan Smith apparently is fantastic the bista Mista lady Dean berer needs to be considered up there as well and will zotus and cam young just based off their play at major championships overall I will be back on Monday morning with Jeff fineberg and Tim undust to make our bets pick our oneand duns and break down the field Tuesday I got the best bet show with Cam and RZA Wednesday me and Tambo he’ll be in studio breaking down all the final bets the weather and DraftKings plays lineups and ownership and then on let’s see here Thursday NFL release show with Jeff me and Tim that’s happening then Friday cutsweats live on the Mayo media Network where we will give you a better broadcast than anything that you are watching as a companion piece to the main feed on CBS this week thank you all for watching I’m fired up for the PGA Championship and I hope you are too all right I’m Pat Mayo thanks for watching I’ll see you next time P Mayo experience experience