2024 Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets, Odds, Placement Markets | Majors Exemptions, Ludvig Hurt

Pat Mayo, Ben Rasa & Byron Lindeque give their 2024 Wells Fargo Championship picks with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.

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INDEX

00:00 Intro
3:02 Course Preview
8:30 Gold
14:35 Ludvig Hurt/Injury Reporting
18:06 Silver
31:33 Bronze
46:01 Recap
47:17 Outright Picks
54:20 PGA Championship Exemptions

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do you see what’s going on here it I look like I’m in those like Iraqi hostage videosat experienceat experienceat [Music] experienceat experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now and get yourself some special offers or if you just wait till the night when is the nth the 9th is in 2 days from now you wait till Thursday and then you can get a potential deposit bonus of up to $250 if you’re someone who really wants to go in and you know make a real deposit on Underdog fantasy using Code May will unlock that $250 bonus and you’ll get a for new customers you’re going to get a free Square for the PGA Championship as well so you probably want to utilize that all right smash like sub to the channel while you’re here if you missed the research show shame on you it’s already out as is the pick show in recap that I did with Jeff but we’re talking Best Bets for the Byron not the Byron Nelson the Wells Fargo Championship the final year of the Wells Fargo Championship it’ll be like the Quail Hollow classic presented by cognizant something like that next year we we’ll see what the title sponsor ends up going to and the Myrtle Beach Classic which has no sponsor unless Myrtle Beach is the sponsor Ben and Byron on the line with me to do the gold the silver and the bronze Ben you’re having a rough time this morning it looks like do you see what’s going on here it I look like I’m in those like Iraqi hostage videos uh and I honestly kind of feel like that because I have been jettison from my apartment I’m at a buddy’s house appreciate that uh they put a hole through my roof fixing hole through my ceiling fixing the roof and now I’m here in in the dark uh gonna mention Alex norin it it’s just not good it’s not a good scene here I’m excited to see you both but I’m I’m I’m very salty I’m not going to lie salty Ben salty Ben with a big win wi picks yeah salty Ben with the with the winning picks that’s that’s what we’re gonna have to do we’re gonna have to Rally there’s no way around it well you’re going to need to win some money this week we lost at the Derby so we’ll win money this week and then you can afford to fix the hole in your roof that’s yeah now it gets serious so we’re playing for more than just street cred uh we’re we’re we’re playing for a roof roof over my head Byron from rotoballer.com and co-host of the fantasy golf degenerates you guys dropped your show on Monday evening you guys been cleaning up on the pick them for Underdog by the way oh yeah and Kenny has just been cleaning up in general I mean he’s basically running harder than the hostages that are holding razza over there are we going to need a newspaper from you Ben just to make sure everything’s okay but um feel for you bud it’s been it’s been fun with Kenny it’s been a blast as you can see I’ve upgraded the camera got some new lighting going on now unfortunately Ben took a hit on his side of things there but you know happy to be here yeah it’s a it’s a zero some game for everything that Ben loses you gain I think I got Shang sung yeah you took you took my soul and apparently my camera so uh I I I respect that though at least someone is ready to roll today just off the Hop I wanted to ask you about Myrtle Beach Byron do you have any sense of how this course is going to play um no idea Pat I just feel like Daniel Burger should stand a pretty good chance out there I feel like I’ve heard a lot of surrounds kind of like I want to say I started with no idea and then I want to say Liberty National or PJ National um just that’s the kind of Vibes I’m getting what what do you think I I have no idea because the first time I just don’t think that they’re going to gear it up to be a super difficult test because it’s an alternate field event Ben yeah I think that’s fair I mean I I still think there’s some qualities that that are going to kind of translate through uh but there’s also an unknown and I like that because if you have a narrative or you have a kind of an angle you can press that angle and if it’s not baked in now you’ve created a lot of value for yourself so this is something that I want to talk about with the alternate field events from what we’ve seen this year and it’s it’s popped up from time to time as well that you know Bryce Garnett wins one Billy horel wins one guys that have previously won on tour but guys that you would consider veterans on the PGA tour who have been there they’ve closed out tournaments they’ve been in big spots obviously Billy horsa on a much different level than Bryce Garnett but it’s weird to see a player of the caliber of Billy horel in one of those fields even if he wasn’t a downturn in his career he’s two years removed from winning a WGC match play he won at Wentworth the guy’s a fantastic golfer he has probably close to I he must be bordering on 10 PGA Tour wins at this point then he goes into Puerto Rico and knocks that one out so the way that I’m thinking about it here that you have all these guys at the top I guess Burger is a proven winner I just don’t want to bet Burger as the the co-favorite in the field we’ve seen EVR win but if it’s going to be these older type Grinders that nothing really phases them too much I was thinking someone like Ryan Moore this week Ben I mean if there was ever a week uh to take some shots on some of those guys these are the events that they get it done I mean I think you go either way like I’m assuming people will go to like Royo or SMY or some of these guys that you know you you want to bet but you’re not sure what type of event they fit into so I’m I’m All About embracing some of those type of guys in these type of fields what do you make of it do do you think there’s any Merit to my very small sample judgment Byron of what happens in these alternate events well yeah I feel like you can show up as that old guy and just feel like an alpha that you’ve never been for a while and just really take advantage of the situations where a lot of these guys like Ben Kohl’s might find themselves in situations where they completely out of their depth and just you know rattled to balls deep so I would not be shocked if someone impressive wins this thing again it’s kind of it’s also not like that complete alternate event that we typically get I feel like they’re a bit stronger than normal since the signature event started I would tend to agree because like my eyes go to like I bet on low to win this tournament at 45 to1 and then I’m was thinking yeah like I like Kevin Yu I bet on Kevin Yu last week I bet on Andrew Novak last week should I just keep riding these guys and I might end up doing that but even someone like Matt Wallace comes in at 2 to1 you know Hustler’s also 32 to1 Ben Griffin’s 27 we’ve seen Matt Wallace both compete really well in Weak field tournaments he won one of these alternate events last year two years ago whenever the hell it was he’s won like midling Euro events in the past maybe even like and thirsty Lawrence is in this field too he’s having a terrible season uh Jorge or yeah Jorge CIO is in the field too another guy who’s won some like middling Euro events that my eyes kind of go towards those guys over guys that I think is going to are going to break out in the future even someone like thorbjorn olison at 50 like do I think that he’s I mean I know he’s a better player than Ben Griffin and he’s Twice The Yards any that’s where my mind he playing way worse than Griffin though that’s the thing it’s these DP World Tour guys Pat that come over here and they’re Immaculate golfers and then just suck it up I need to we need to have a word with them they need to tell us if they’re going to suck or not because it’s it’s been driving me nuts with Ryan Fox on my fantasy team and and multiple other areas too yeah Ryan fox has been destroying me like valami has shown up a few times we haven’t really seen much from Bobby Mack or Thor Bjorn but like hoard has popped a whole bunch of times Vic Perez not Vic Perez uh Matthew paval comes out and gets a win at Tory Pines it’s never the guys that you think Ben from the Euro tour that come over and do well it seems yeah it’s always a mystery and and there’s always that balance of like you want a guy who’s been in the thick of it on Sundays over there has experienced doing that or do you want someone who’s who’s been over here but making cuts and grinding and I tend to agree that I like guys when they’ve been in contention uh they kind of know what to do it’s just at times really difficult to nail down who that could be from the Euros yeah so so maybe the the goal this week is we’ll bet Ryan Moore Shez reevy and your guy who snuck into this tournament on the number Ben Bill hos who was like kind of he was kind of like in it at Puerto Rico of course when he shows up uh you know he’s ready to play so got a back Bill house anyway that’s my spiel about Myrtle Beach let’s get into the Best Bets the gold selections for me I’m going to the top 20 Market to start off with and someone who either Nails this I mean I should probably go to the top 10 Market with it to be perfectly honest but it’s even money right now plus 100 for a top 2 for siah theala who I I think you can make a PR I haven’t finalized my betting card yet but I think the best number that I’m seeing on them right now is 25 to1 maybe you can eek out at 28 which seems low compared to some of actually got a 30 on them right now I might actually end up going to bet that but this has been a spot for you know younger players breakthrough players throughout the year and I think that he just kind of fits everything that you’d want he can go full send with the driver it’s not like people hit Fairways here anyway like that is one very specific path for shorter hitters to have success at Quail Hollow is just hit every single Fairway and you know Masher long iron sort of the Molinari Joel Damon Denny McCarthy and morawa at the very highest end way to get you know some birdies at this course and compete Abe aner was another one who came second to Rory one year who would have that strategy it’ be the Cory Connor strategy this week but that’s a very difficult strategy when you have guys that can hit it anywhere on the course that they want and the rough Isn’t So penal that it’s really going to cost them anything like I think that Windam Clark ended up hitting 41% of his Fairways last year it really made no difference to him and he was able to get to minus 19 for a winning score and end up winning by three if you just go full send off the tea with theala this week and just let the rest of his game do the work you know the irons can be spotty from time to time that’s okay Immaculate short game he’s been a fantastic putter these are not that challenging of greens they’re huge so you might three putt from time to time but we’ve seen a lot of very poor Putters do well here and imagine what a great putter can do here so the gala is on my short list for outright win but is a top 20 even money Ben uh this is the range that he’s just kind of been in for whole season I get it yeah I mean he’s been churning it out you mentioned the skill set and what you want at Quil Hollow we know what this course does uh it’s hard to push back on that I actually thought the top 20 Market was I don’t want to say loaded but there was a handful of names that I had on the list that I was pretty comfortable with what do are one of them your gold pick it is my gold pick it’s Alex noren in the top 20 Market uh at plus 130 like I said once you’ve can’t get any worse for me so I feel a lot more comfortable saying this now uh I’m freed up to just back him he’s been a top 20 machine I think we’ve seen it the game is come along uh had a chance there a small one but could have snuck in last week and was not able to get it done but he still played fantastic gained across the board I don’t think quill how’s the perfect fit but I also think at plus 130 in this field norren is going to keep churning him out and he’s crafty around the green off the te’s been better I’m getting plus money I feel good about it I’m really just going to with norin and hope that he keeps paying dividends even if he’s not obviously cashing outright tickets you always do this and I think Xander is sort of the biggest example of it Byron about the players that people bet on every single week to win outright but then you start to look at their top 10 markets and where they’re such profitable players in the top 10 market yet not at all in the outright Market is there a better example of that from like the mid- tier of player than Alex noren I was going to say I’m not sure who’s got a worse ceiling is it Alex norin or Ben razza because I bet bet Alex Nar in top 20 all day I would never touch an outright slip with him at all so yes I think he’s won $8 over the last 12 months in the top 10 market and 165 in the T20 market so that’s where to go with Alex naren love love love it you mentioned Xander shafley T10 plus money even money at bet 365 he’s doing it 50% of the time we’re going to Quail Hollow I mean it’s his hollowed ground essentially and it’s just a no it to me I I got it at plus 115 when it came out so i’ would still go back at plus 100 ties ping full at Bed 365 and um to just loop back on your si the gala take there Pat 40 to1 over at B 365 if you bet it each way three places siah’s had two second place finishes this year already so I’m in on that by the way and I’m a big fan of siah this week yeah I was looking at that the the problem that I have with it is that you know now I have to double my bet in order to get that top three to go along with him I mean I don’t mind it but at the same time if I could just bet him outright at 30 to1 I’m feeling pretty good about that too I I don’t even know like what would the metrics tell you about that in terms of like an EV type bet well so far I’ve bet this bet and I’ve had higo and fox finished fourth and then I had Benny an finished fourth last week so it’s working out wonderfully so far I’ll get back to you maybe this week and see hopefully siah can win it and just take care of business for us in general but um I’ve enjoyed it because I mean if you take a look at sayah he’s 25 to1 in some spots if you can get him 40 to1 it’s almost double your outright stake anyway and you can get that T3 insurance I don’t know I feel like it’s a really good idea I I’m still gonna figure it out but yeah I think the more we’ve talked about this that I’m gonna end up betting theala this week because I with the rest of the losers that I have on my card I have no one lower than 30 to1 the the market has really shifted cuz I we should probably talk about it that ludvig ended up wding from this event do you worry about him for next week Byron or is this sort of a preventative measure I I that’s how I kind of saw because I bet zalot torus at 55 when it opened because you know he withdrew last week with a back injury but was it like a real back injury or did he just not want to play three weeks in a row yeah and it would have been six weeks on the Trot had he finished the PJ championship for w zot Taurus so that scheduling conflict I don’t know who did he schedule I don’t think the back’s as bad as we think so love that Pat fori um who’s the other guy with the knee it’s it’s ludvig I don’t know I I the thing about golf betting is like it needs to get to the NFL level at some point right where we can really get a good feel for this it’s just like oh my back flared up so but my actually my my schedule flared up the worst so I’m going to have a back flare up instead and you know kind of skip this tournament so I think these guys take precautionary measures before these big events you know I think majors are just their number one priority so I think he’s just being careful hopefully that’s what I would think of it too but Ben it’d be very difficult to get to the point and I’ve made mention of this over the years that when you have someone like Hideki and hideki’s hurt just every single week and then we Panic about it and then sometimes it’s a problem sometimes it’s not when you have to have self-reporting how can we ever really know and like remember Scotty’s neck at the Players like the the guy had Knight the rockberry syndrome was going to quit the tour and then he didn’t make a bogey for like 45 holes or something like that it doesn’t seem to matter sometimes it’s so hard to to know what’s what’s real and what’s not and even when guys withdraw sometimes they say like you know I’ve been battling a knee injury for three months it’s like wait what uh I’ve been betting this guy like it’s it’s really tough to know I tend to think around Majors the slightest bump in the road these guys say Let me let me just optimize for the major and if my knee is not 100% I’ll make it 100% that that’s just kind of The Stance I take and I don’t know how you really do it any differently to be honest do we know if we’re getting strok basically yeah are we getting Strokes gain data Byron do you know for Myrtle Beach because I’m gonna guess that we don’t oh please I mean what we had nothing for the Zurich Pat so like literally worse than Ben’s situation for the Zur and it’s just now an alternate event I mean but did we get any for B one I feel like I don’t know hopefully I I’m not setting my expectations either I I was just trying to figure out that if I could try to find a bet where I I don’t have to bet on lonto Griffin to come inside the top 40 or the top 30 I could just bet him to have more than two and a half Strokes on approach and he’ll he’ll do that and then maybe like parlay that with I don’t know negative five or more Strokes putting and I feel like I would be a big winner in that market when it came down to it but I’m trying to look at heigo here right now was not good it’s been a while where’s that Market at is that Underdog no that’s not a real Market is that just like imaginary Market I was going to say that’s some sick stuff I would love that stuff yeah who wouldn’t love that that would be per I I think that would be too optimal for us they don’t want to introduce that to the market no it would that would be so much fun betting Strokes gained metrics that would be like next level genery man that would be so much fun I would I would be I’d be down the rabbit all day well the move would be when you get to Bay Hill or PGA National just take whoever the best players are in the field and bet them like massively under like off the tea or something like that like Scotty puts one in the water all of a sudden his metrics are thrown off for the entire round and you end up being a big winner although he never does that you’ve you’ve you’ve cored the market of R8 and it hasn’t even come out so I doubt you know I doubt it’s coming so yeah thanks for that one if someone as stupid as me can try to figure out the optimal strategy within 10 seconds of creating a market likely not going to ever see the light of day I think yeah yeah facts silver picks for the week Byron you want to lead us off sure I’m going to go ahead and throw out a Tom hogi wherever you can find him I’m thinking right now he’s plus 140 over at bet 365 you can get him at plus 190 it’s it’s pretty much a tossup between the dead Heats at at DK and and 365 paying ties in full you can go either route there um with the plus money side I’d probably lean towards the ties paining full a bit more if you’re looking for Xander side you know the closer to plus money the the less you know you need those dead Heats in your life so I don’t mind Tom hogi he’s shown that he’s been just top 20 Beast the last little while it’s been really really impressive to see him play some good golf and it’s it’s shown like he showed up at the cognizant where he’s never played well and finished inside the cut there you know he he makes these appearances at these venues nowadays where he’s not necessarily played the best golf but he’s playing so well right now it’s just no brainer to go to him in this top 20 Market he’s he’s been gaining $370 last 12 months and that wasn’t profitable entering the year it’s all come from this year it’s been really impressive from Tom hugi he lost oh listen to my voice here he lost four and a half Strokes putting last week which has been sort of an outlier for him It’s usually the chipping that ends up being the big Tom hogi problem but it was nice to see him get back it’s funny that he has a t41 in a week when everyone bet him to win myself excluded I jumped off the hogi train I’m just circling Colonial for him and go get your win at Colonial we’ll go on our way we we’ll shake hands at the end it might be 20 to1 I don’t care I’m going to be in at Tom hogi once we get to the Charles Schwab challenge which is in I don’t know three weeks or something like that maybe knowing my luck he’s not even going to play and that’s stupid tournament because he’s too good now but two and a half Strokes off the te four strokes on approach lost four and a half on the greens I I can’t remember at time Ben where a player that I like had a very poor result but I was super encouraged by what he did yeah you get that occasionally I’d say it’s the exception to the rule where it’s just like you’re more confident it’s an outlier you know it’s not up something flared up it’s just like that is not what we’ve seen and I think that that could in some ways help us in the long run you know it could suppress a number it could set us up for an opening and it is a macro game with some of these guys you don’t have to be right every week you can maximize uh where you are right so I get that with hogi um and he certainly played some really quality golf throughout the year do you have a silver pick I do uh and this may be bad etiquette but I I’m going to have to say I had three things written down Xander top 10 at straight even money Byron nail that I love that pick consistent off the tea obviously you know I know he’s got to start winning majors and whatnot but the results have been there you know he’s eighth at the Masters second at the Players fifth at valpar uh you know he puted his way into the top 20 at Heritage but Heritage is such a you know that’s such such a weird course that’s nothing like Quail Hollow this is primed for Xander he’s sub1 to one in the outright market and I think he should be uh I know Rory is Rory but still uh I love everything about Xander here I wanted exposure to him and to get you know straight double your money here you know plus 100 I love that spot so I I’m right in line with that that is one of my favorite plays the whole week yeah how popular do you think he’s going to be on DraftKings pretty popular um because it’s well we don’t have the 5,000 guys anymore I guess that helps a little bit I’d say Winden will be way more popular than Xander just because of the Thousand difference okay well yeah there’s a$1 thousand difference so sure but let’s say it’s Xander versus Rory who are within $300 of each other as the two favorites in this tournament do you think it ends up being Rory or Xander most popular Xander for sure yeah even Rory coming off a win what a happy a Happy Meal win with Shane Lowry at the Zurich yeah sure um please let’s let’s throw that all the way up in the ownership rankings there well you got Rory he gets a half win for the Zurich he won in Dubai earlier this year so how many real wins does that count for one and a half yeah one and a half yeah I thought the tournament in Dubai was actually quite good yeah it’s just yeah anyway so Xander top 10 where do I want to go with my pick here do I want to go a little bit off the board because I mentioned Ryan Moore I’m actually going to go back to a guy where is he he’s T he’s 240 for that what’s he for the other one I probably don’t want to play him at 55 to one where’s the top oh they’re not even offering me my top 40 market right now so it’s going to be top 20 I guess they’re not going to go top 40 in a 60 man field or whatever the hell it is I’m gonna take Jake knp top 20 at plus 240 we saw this a little bit earlier in the air and this is actually what gave me some encouragement he had a very very very poor performance on Sunday going in with the co-lead or the outright leader at Byron Nelson and it was very reminiscent of what we saw in Mexico where he had this fourstroke lead and it immediately evaporated because he was hitting double crosses all over the place and then people got scared off of him at Honda and he performed great at Honda he kept the ball striking going he kept the going he kept the chipping going the one thing I noticed with nap throughout the course of the week at Byron Nelson was you think that he would dominate the there was two really short power fors and one of them he actually did pretty well on uh the one on the back night number 14 I think but number six was also a really short one and he would have been better off hitting seven iron seven iron into that hole because he would hit it to like 43 yards flub the chip to like 20 feet and not make the putt it’s like guy this isn’t your strong we see this with ludvig all the time too sometimes he gets to courses where he just hits it too close to the hole for whatever reason and he just like Yanks his wedges left and ends up in the rough whereas if he was like one 85 away he would just hit something to the center of the green it’s really bizarre with some some of these guys and one thing I like about nap is that he’s probably very unlikely to be the 54 hole leader at Quail Hollow so that pressure of leading an event on Sunday is probably not going to get to him but I mentioned full send off the tea with seah every course that we’ve seen so far with Jake knap where you can go driver kind of spray the ball around I mean it’s weird that he did so well at Honda but he just drove the ball very effectively that week in general and avoided the water but you know Tory Pines Mexico last week I would say that Quail Hollow I mean it’s not similar to Mexico or last week but it is somewhat similar to Tory Pines where you don’t have to hit the Fairway just avoid the water if he can do that this week I think the rest of his game is clicking enough where he’s actually a really nice fit for this cor byon yeah I mean if you think think about all these long Lin that they going to be hitting in here he’s Ultra powerful out the rough I mean that’s what you’re looking for you know the rough’s not the longest out year but it’s still penal because you’re coming in from so far away so for him hitting a six onon it’s going to be easy peasy for him so I love imp Pat I’m just a little worried about his ability to like really shine in his big boy events so far I think if you take a look at his track record he’s really Shun in you know when the when the lights aren’t the brightest um but you know he’s he’s finding himself in these positions and he’s got a really interesting and Powerful swing that doesn’t look it and I’m just waiting for him to get that under control on Sundays because he’s so fun to watch it’s effortless it’s beautiful it’s Majestic I want to see him on my TV on Sundays way more than like Matt Wallace or somebody like that you know I think it’s all all nap time and it’s it’s I love it so let’s go yeah he has had a very poor start to the Signature Events he was 57th at the at Bay Hill he was 45th at the Players he was 55th at the Masters was 62nd at the RBC Heritage I would not expect the Heritage or the players realistically been to be a good course for him and what H his Bay Hill was really weird because it was like three hole I think it was number six every single day he just like kept putting it into the water on that hole but out like if you just took out his like one blow up hole each of the days he actually played kind of well and you get that you know you talked about your your madeup market like he’s that type of guy where he could lose an insane amount off the tea unravel but you know those are somewhat outliers and yeah he kind of reminds me of ferelli a little bit where he it’s always something um but he has it all at the same time and it when it syns up he can win uh and when it doesn’t you’re just like wow he’s ate over through two holes and you get some of that with nap but I think we’re starting to see he’s more comfortable in this and yes the farmers data point is definitely one of the strongest that we have for him yeah what would be do you think the data points to look at here if you were trying to do some comp courses with this buyer and like I think Riv sticks out like a sore thumb and then it would be Tory Pines like just those two and when I start to think about those two weirdly Mexico is kind of next on the list for that like middle to lower tier player that finds himself in this field yeah the other two are all Madden settings and then Mexico is like novice you know you just throw that in there it’s basically the same layout just way easier setting so I’m on board and those are literally the only two courses I have as my two Cal courses this week is Quail I mean Riv and Tory South so um you nailed it there Pat so I mean na was able to do it is NI is Nikolai not playing this week or did I just miss him he’s not where where the hell is Nikolai hoard and Keith Mitchell also not playing this week by the way um yeah nikolai’s just not been playing well enough on his exemptions he’s just not not brought the heat yet I think he he got he’s never played he played nice at Tori and then made it into the master signature because of his second right yeah yeah then world ranking I’d imagine yeah he finished like close to top 10 at the Masters didn’t he did he come 11th I don’t know I remember he was winning for a while and then he just kind of went away the moment he started winning I I guess you’re kind of a perfect guy to talk to about this about like the actual player mentality because we’ve seen this a few times now throughout the past the course of the past few weeks and I think Jake knap is kind of a perfect example of what we saw a guy going in with the lead and it kind of crushed his entire round and it’s happened to him twice now on tour he was able to Rally back because no one besides wacky valami provided much of a challenge for him in Mexico and he was able to have a c minus round and still pull out a victory that was not the case this time last week at the Byron Nelson but we saw pendrith the moment he got into the lead know he started playing pretty crappy and then he got out of the lead and started playing much better Ben Kohl’s was you know lightning in a bottle until he took the lead and then the pressure hit him we saw it with Zack Blair and that other guy Morpheus that he played with at the Zurich just the moment that they got into the lead when you’re playing from behind and two down you can go just fire at pins it’s easy peasy who cares if you miss it you know you’re you’re playing to win the moment you have to protect that lead it just seems like everyone tight not everyone these guys just all tighten up in these circumstances am I reading too much into this because it’s just what I’ve seen in the past few weeks or do you actually think that’s a real thing well we’ve got so many people that are responsible for being in those positions way more often than normal that are no longer here so we seeing these these guys find themselves a lot more randomly just vying for the lead and it feels like a horse race to me almost you just got to catch a guy lucky and if he’s in the second to last group I’m almost more excited about that than the guy being in the final group because of the nerves you know just the feeling of being in that final group is some people thrive off it some people die off it you know like in you know nap does not like being in that final group I had a nap ladder top five top 10 top 20 last week and if he goes off in that second to last group that top five cashes every single week you know like I just don’t see him sucking as bad as he did in that final group Pat so you’re right I think we’ve seen a lot of guys I mean that Call’s choke was it was um on the moon man it was brutal we I always mention this to it’s funny because he ended up winning the Masters but we always kind of speculated Ben that if Sergio was ever going to win a major that was going to play in like the fourth the last group because every time that he ended up in the final group he just was absolutely abysmal I can’t remember if him and Rose were the final group or not I think that they were that year but there was four of them that were tied for the lead going into the final day of Augusta and I thought he was dead on 13 when he hit it over over the creek into the woods and somehow grinded for par out of there to completely changed the round yeah there obviously I always think if my man Tommy uh ever grabs one he’s going to post at like 8 in the morning on Sunday and then just a hurricane comes in and he just ends up winning there there’s something to that it’s just at at some point it’s hard to know because as Byron said there are other guys that are fueled by that they they want that on them and we’ve seen kind of like Windam Clark comes to mind and turns out he’s really good but he did not shy away from that so it is a mixed bag I tend to think you know if you can not have the spotlight on you to that magnitude it’s probably a good thing if you’re just getting started I can see it bronze selections for both Myrtle Beach and Wells Fargo Ben do do you have a Myrtle Beach or you just sticking with Wells Fargo this week uh I’m gonna just stick with with Wells Fargo here um I’m gonna go to the matchup Market again is that fair game can I do that the rules anyway if you want to make an outright one of your best you can do that so most definitely a head to-head is fair I’m just going to short spe I’m going with Benny on minus 120 over Jordan Speed uh I wanted to get some exposure to to Benny he’s kind of in the norn bucket of the outrights have been returning negative 100% but uh he he still has a lot of lot of markets where he’s succeeded he was great last week and I think we’ve seen with spe you know he can turn it on but he’s not at the height of his powers so at this spot uh if you want to take a Riv comp an was was really good at Riv this year you know hit that top 20 I thought that type of mentality can translate here if he puts up something like that I’ll live with it if spe me down at minus 120 so I like benan particularly in this matchup with speed who I’m not super confident in this week I don’t understand how spe continues to be priced at these levels Byron it’s name value literally and I love what Ben’s doing here because he’s playing like he’s got 17 kids but it’s only two right now I think and it’s it’s not good and his game’s just gone off the deep end man like it’s and it’s weird it he’ll show some form and then out of nowhere just he just forgets what he’s doing and just just implodes it’s so match up against Jordan Speed is literally the perfect market and love that um almost as much as the Xander pick you know so um loving the volatility you getting there so what’s weird about spe and you would not think this at all like his approach play and his chipping have been abysmal for about two months now he’s actually driving the ball really well for him that’s what you get when you’re a dad like it’s that Dad strength it’s just like you just bomb bomb te- balls and suck the the way that’s literally how I play golf it’s it’s not like but it’s not like he’s played this tournament a ton either obviously he played it in the 2017 PGA Championship he came t32 in 2013 when he played here and then he hadn’t played it in 10 years and came and missed the cut last year and I think Ben you’re on to something that he just never played this event until forced to play it because it’s just it’s not he played pretty well at the at the President’s Cup two years ago at Quail Hollow I suppose but this course just doesn’t feel like it’s set up for him especially with like because there is a big difference I think between setup I remember talking to Moose about this I went down I played Hazel team with him he’s the member there and he was telling me like just the difference between how the setup was for the Ryder Cup versus when they had the PGA Championship there and like the rough was like that long for the PGA Championship or when the women’s US Open was there it was a super long rough he’s like they don’t basically even have rough at the Ryder Cup because they wanted to benefit the Americans and so they can hit it as far as possible and just make outrageous shots from the rough and go score they want to be a more exciting tournament rather than a USGA type setup that not that this is a USGA type setup but as Byron mentioned that even though he’s gaining Strokes off the te right now you know a lot of that is with accuracy the distance is Plus at the moment but it’s not an elite tier that he’s going to have some longer irons coming into this we know he’s not the most powerful guy with a five iron in his hand versus a Rory or a Windam Clark type player that this could go for him very like South very quickly we’ve seen the big blowup numbers over and over and over this feels like the perfect course to make an eight absolutely and and I just think you know in general there’s normally a reason why why a guy doesn’t play an event a pretty solid event for that long and I think it’s because it it doesn’t fit kind of his his skill set and he’s almost forced into it here I’m not super confident in the recent form so you know we know speed can concealing it but in a matchup I don’t really care about that I’m talking about you know median outcomes and I think often than not he’s going to hit some of those blowups and we’re going to have a good chance to cash this ticket fun fact about benan which I did not realize second in driving distance gained in this field over the past 50 rounds he’s been moving it those Korean pharmacies they are they work wonders man I’ll tell you bronze pick for you Byron I just want to make confirm Pat what is the highest bet that’s been cashed so far because I’m eyeing that that’s like my my Golden Goose you know trying to hunt this unicorn down and I I think it was this was it the 600 that um cam did for Scotty no that was that that was plus 450 he had Scotty top American at Bay Hill at plus 450 turns out he could have just bet him outright and hit that one as well I’m trying to think what the best one was yeah can we can figure it out but my my tailor Mo top 20 at the Masters was not that high that was like four to one or something like that so yeah I think we’re looking at plus 450 has been the highest hit so far Ricky Fowler top five plus 900 off the top rope let’s go um going back to Quail this guy loves his golf course and we seeing a sprinkling of Ricky Fowler form returning back to this planet going back to a place that he loves I think I’ll take a chance on on Ricky at plus 900 I think we starting to see some stuff I think taking a look at these like granular Strokes gained approach numbers they’re starting to Trend really nicely over like the last six rounds so it’s looking good for the big Rick and um plus 900 is a very Hefty number for a top five at a golf course he’s had a lot of success had in the past did anyone come and teach him how to drive the golf ball because he has forgotten how to do that he the last time that he gained more than a stroke off the tea was when he won at Rocket mortgage last year I don’t care it’s Quail Hollow he’s he’s going to feel comfortable you know like this is the thing like you go to these places and you play well at these courses he’s also plus 900 it’s all good all right is that with ties or without ties that’s at bet 365 so that’s got ties so you could probably find without TI in the in the four digigit numbers then all right I’m going to go to Myrtle Beach for my pick so some of the ones that just missed for me I was actually looking at Taylor Moore again here for a top 20 in this market that would be plus 210 looked at heo top 20 at Myrtle Beach for plus 230 Ryan Moore plus 275 for top 20 lonto plus 190 for a top 30 but I’m just going to go with the guy who’s been playing some good golf has played well in these altfield events uh obviously this course is going to be a little bit different as it’s not in the Caribbean but at Myrtle Beach I bet him to win so I might as well bet him top 20 as well for the best bet show Justin low plus 190 to come inside the top 20 he’s just I he’s even played well in like he played well at Bay Hill just he just hits a ton and greens of Regulation he can kind of putt that that’s kind of good enough for some of these alt events yeah he’s playing really well now and it’s it’s interesting to see him come so far right he was the guy that we saw at at the Windom Miss A Part and just hold his head in his hands because he was the Bubble Boy to make the top 125 and then I think someone left to live and then he made it but like that’s how far he’s come right like this guy’s literally now we betting him to win tournaments after he was literally just trying to keep a tour card so um very proud of what he come come to be and love that bed pet he’s he’s just playing good golf in general yeah to kind of do a bit of a deeper dive on him in terms of the stats uh in terms of my Strokes game model he comes out number six overall he’s top 10 in putting he’s top 25 in approach he hits enough Fairways that hopefully he can keep himself out of the water but you know top he was top 25 last week he was top five at corales he was top 25 at Valero he’s been right around that maybe top 30 should have been the bet because he’s come top 30 in four straight events maybe I’ll have to amend that but he’s been gaining at least two strokes on the green at least two strokes on approach he’s chipping it well and he’s breaking even off the tea which sometimes that’s good enough for this quality of event Ben you’re not going to find a ton of guys where it’s like they’re doing you know if they’re doing everything spectacular they’d be playing at Wells Fargo probably uh and so you have to live with some of that and I like guys that you know again I I hate to get into mindset but guys like that they seem like they are focused hungry uh you know these events they don’t gloss over them and when when the game is clicking I tend to buy even on on you know as it’s incrementally on the upswing rather than with with better players a lot I I try to you know catch him in a depression in a low point and buy low but with some of guys like that I say just kind of keep going because it seems like the game is just only expanding there were two guys in the Myrtle Beach Field that I and it’s funny cuz Paul brought him up before the show and he rates out number one in the numbers that I’m looking at should we just be blindly backing Kelly craft at 80 to1 Ben I mean I’m not I I am not uh able to talk about Kelly craft that guy’s cost me a lot of money over the years didn’t even know he’s appearing so him and Sun Kang uh are appearing in tournaments on Saturday they’re just not in the field and then on Saturday they’re inserted in like seven and I no one seems to have a problem with that so I I shout out to Kelly craft but maybe uh what a world that Kelly craft is just is just grinding and getting in the hunt never thought that in a million years I bet him somewhere during the swing season because he was doing this it was hey like he can’t really drive but he’s making a ton of putts and when his approach game gets good Byron it gets really good like he’s sneakily like one of the better approach plays yeah I bet him at uh the one that EVR won in Mexico because Sanderson Farms he gained 6.3 Strokes on approach the following week in Vegas at Summerland he gained seven and a half Strokes on approach like f how could he ever stop doing this and then he just kind of disappeared for a while then he plays the Zurich with Kevin TW plays really well and then gains 6.4 Strokes on approach last week so maybe he can keep it going didn’t make a putt last week at all he lost three Strokes on the green so maybe he is someone to look at here or even Kevin TW who just appeared from I don’t know what he ended up finishing last week but he was in my best lineup I it’s would never think of Kelly craft as a really good iron player you know but if you you can spike a few like that and he’s typically hot on the greens and that’s what you need to win tournament so I mean this is an alternate field event again you know like literally anyone can win this thing if it’s not like going to follow the narrative we spoke about earlier someone’s got to win it so why not Kelly I guess so I’m just trying now I’m trying to look at Kevin TW is back toback top 10 he’s playing good yeah Kevin TW uh last week I got to a little as well and he’s he’s just back back in business just for five years but he’s back and he’s in the Wells Fargo field right that’s unfortunate I think that he is yeah he is in the he is in the Wells Fargo field wow he’s $6,200 on DraftKings I think I like that maybe first round leader for Kevin tway what does that pay that should be that maybe I’ll make cross out low and end up making Kevin gold gold pick Kevin dway 500 to one titanium pick let’s see where where is first round leader here do they have that Mark open did you guys look at the weather at all yet thundery on Thursday afternoon as far as I remember what what is it on Thursday afternoon Thunder thunderstorms from what I’ve gathered great fantastic times I I did see that there was going to be a tornado just outside of Charlotte on Wednesday evening Ben they probably won’t play in that but they’re not playing on Wednesday anyway so who cares no yeah that’s not that’s not the ticket so we’ll see hopefully they can get one round one time through on one single day uh lofty goals I know that’s that’s tough I I don’t know if they can do that there’s only 70 guys in the field too but they’ll somehow they’ll find a way not to get any of the rounds in I don’t know how this happens for them can we get rid of the 70 man no cut events These suck I hate these the pach can the is anyone less out of their way than the PGA Tour like it’s literally it’s Johnny F zeles stuff what they’re doing right now it’s like theyve not read The Playbook they’ve not figured out what to do to give the fans what they need they’re not giving the players what they need they are but only some of them it’s just come on I mean what what are we doing let’s I like just cut 10 people it makes it fun like literally just cut 10 guys don’t give them the money like you can’t just sharp you for a freaking Silver Spoon in your mouth like it’s it’s the PJ to it’s a competitive event it’s not the freaking Pro Bowl man you know like this isn’t what we’re trying to do yeah and there was all the discussion about live and like but and part of the reason why I feel like Liv doesn’t connect Ben is because it’s the same guys every week and this is what the PGA Tour is becoming and I get you want to showcase your stars but if they’re just you know playing against each other every single time like that’s not fun either like yeah it’s fun to watch you know all year to see if we can get the Knicks and Celtics in a seven game series in the Eastern Conference Finals that’s what you play towards it would be less fun if they played every week yeah I and I just there is now no not even just for DFS but I can’t stress how much different I treat a tournament when it’s even like the Master’s cut you know where it’s like okay you know 70% of The Field’s getting through but somebody you know you have to pay attention on Thursday and Friday now it’s just like whatever you know I really really think they should just cut something have some type of Distinction to give people an incentive to grind and an incentive to tune in on Friday like I love a cut sweat and we just don’t get that anymore it’s really unfortunate I mean it’s not even really about the cut sweat I just think adding a more diverse field to everything would just inherently make this a more watchable product like let’s just take the top 30 guys that are in Myrtle Beach right now make it a 100 man field or make it a 90 man field and cut down to top 50 and cut 40 guys from the field and maybe you do lose Xander maybe you lose Rory well did anyone really want to see them play all that much playing with [ __ ] anyway no just add Bill hwon honestly you just need to add one guy and that would fix the whole thing all right well that will do it to recap the picks this week because I always forget to do this and then I forget to post them so here they are maybe I’ll start adding them to the description maybe that would be very helpful for people let’s find out I have seah even money top 20 as my gold Jake nap top 20 plus 240 and then at Myrtle Beach for my bronze Justin low plus 190 to finish inside the top 20 Ben goes noren plus 130 top 20 Xander top 10 even money Ben Anne over Jordan spe minus 120 Byron has Xander top 10 that’s the pick of the week apparently at even money Tom hogi top 20 at plus 180 Ricky Fowler top five nine to one you you really want to get that big one don’t you hunting that whale baby my Moi dick it’s going to be Ricky Fouad Quail let’s go do you guys have any outrights in yet because I I mentioned I have La at Myrtle Beach and I got Hideki at 30 cam young at 35 zalatoris at 55 and I might add on the gala at 30 now that he’s dropped to 30 Ben have you bet anyone out right noran and benan bet yeah I bet benan and I bet decky um I might add one or two more honestly I I don’t do this a lot I’m considering betting Xander I really just love everything about Xander here and I know it’s a short short number and I’m not sure I will ultimately do it but man do I like Xander this week better bet Byron Rory to win at wherever the hell he’s at plus 750 or Rory first round leader 16 to1 16 to1 first round leader I mean especially on a wet golf course if it’s going to be raining right yeah that might be the bet bet him and Kevin TW and you have both ends covered who are spectrum and just folded in off baby I’ve got Windam Clark as well with say I’ve got a bit more space to add I might do a Max home edition I’ll see I’m I’m struggling to pull the trigger this week the board is interesting and I don’t know where to go so I’ve got to wind and see situation going on right now one name that hasn’t come up on any of the shows that I’ve done be at the research show talking with Jeff I actually listened to Joe and Jeff uh on the preferred lines last night I’ll be listening to you and Kenny a little bit later on and Ben I don’t know if it’s come up for you but has anyone uttered the name Russell Henley yet this week I’m GNA take that as a no is he’s 50 to one he’s just he’s the same number as Shane Lowry it’s not a good course for the Sex Panther though and he’s not even Sex Panther anymore because he’s not inside the top 20 60% of the time like it’s not even happening every time so he’s his game’s gone to [ __ ] it’s like that’s that’s not that’s not true though because he’s has like he’s had some nice results this year he’s fourth at Sony fourth at bahill Fourth at Valero he was T12 the last time that we saw him at Heritage and like yes Heritage and Sony make a lot of sense they’re part of like the Russell Henley circuit but like Bill he he’s played the Masters pretty well some he plays the US Open pretty well sometimes he plays these long hard courses really well I don’t know if I want to bet him to win I was more thinking maybe I’ll bring this up with Tambo on the draftking shows that it just feels like no one wants a piece of him this week he’s been pretty good but he hasn’t played well yet right so he’s been terrible here but yeah you know it’s uh I honestly didn’t even he’s someone I would have been complaining that they inserted into the tournament so now I’m glad that you brought him up because I I glossed right over him yeah in the short term he’s top five T green it’s and to look at his struggles at this course in the past they’ve mainly been putting which has come back a bit right so that’s I mean who knows what happens yeah but Don’t Force It Pat I’m I’m not going to bet him outright I was just trying to think about because the odds aren’t good they’re 50 to one and you just it’s funny maybe top five yeah top five top 10 something like that maybe maybe just a like a solid piece of like a draftking single entry lineup in yeah he could have some utility in some different forms where now I’m struggling to find where do you know where he is pricewise on DraftKings oh here he is 8 83 yeah he’s he’s he’s like he’s $100 less than Jordan spe but you would bet a head-to-head Henley over spe no problem wouldn’t you oh definitely and he’s he’s in a sweet spot because noren and benan who are both ahead of him in odds are $100 and $200 less than him on DraftKings and they’re going to soak up all that ownership and you’re going to get like a 5% wrestle Henley who’s probably a better player than both these guys definitely leverage in that form uh because there’s no doubt and you got like JT and those guys right above him so he could get lost in the shuffle there uh interesting it just he was a name that I just kept coming across because you’d think that he would be de when I went to go look for him I started to looking like the Cory Connor and a bit lower than that range like where Sun Jay’s at but he’s not he’s just solidly 50 to one we didn’t mention Shane Lowry either coming off a win you mean a a 72 hole piggyback ride half a win half a win but the allall striking continues to be good can’t I I was stunned he made that two- foot putt to clinch the playoff birth for them like I was just he’s going to miss this this what he does but now here he is he like he’s had some disastrous putting performance recently the Masters was really bad Heritage was somehow even worse like the moment you think it can’t get worse on the greens for Shane Lowry it does but again this is a course byon where we’ve seen bad Putters do well right and that’s this is it like this is the T kind of venue for a Shane like just pound Fairways pound greens and just two put your way to Victory if you can you know um I just don’t believe Shane Larry is capable of winning a tournament without someone holding his hand you know um so on on us soil at least yeah so I guess spoiler for uh the draftking show tomorrow is that Henley and Lowry so 8 83 and 7600 are going to be two of my favorite plays I think that’s not great anyway that will do it on the P Mayo experience Byron you are going to be joining me for the PGA Championship player by player breakdown I’m excited for that see see what you got to we we always try to mix and match people on this one it’s going to be me and you we’re going to argue about each of the players try to set like a time limit a minute on each player try to bang through as many as possible I’m excited for this have you started a lot of Valhalla research yet yes I was doing it in my my bathroom right here with the fart fan with my dog last night while be trying to survive a tornado watch and no Pat I’ve done nothing so I’m going to show show up even more tired than I was this morning but I’m going to bring the heat baby I’m so excited for this I can’t wait to just this is what I do my Sunday night research stream on on Sunday nights I do this stuff so we’re going to do expedited version of it it’s going to be a blast I can’t wait yeah and I’ll have my research show out on Sunday morning and I think that show will drop either Friday afternoon or Saturday morning Ben I wanted to extend to you an invite to this show next week for the PGA Championship on Tuesday morning if you have the time to do it and if you’re ceiling hasn’t killed you I’ll be back uh God willing I will be in a normal accommodation and I’m looking forward to it so uh yeah can’t this is good because this is what I did I set the tone the bar is very low right now and then for the major oh it looks like I improved my setup but I actually just went back to what it normally looks like so I couldn’t be more excited uh to check out your guys the player by player I will be watching can’t wait for that I just can’t wait for for that week one of my favorites of the the year yeah the PGA Championship has really elevated itself to be not that it was always a major but it was always like the eh major now it’s like hey this is like a real test we got going on one of the better Fields as well were you guys surprised that they that they let gu and who the hell was the other guy David I could see letting David P in but were you surprised that those were the two that got the invitations to the PGA Championship Byron and not like Louis and burmaster yeah the guc invitation needed to happen last year when he was doing the stuff that guc was doing the year before that you know like he was on form like well he’s done nothing apart from being a complete dumbass you know the last little while so you know I guess maybe they want people to watch so it’s it’s always going to be like this when they pcking OB subjectively you know well it’s funny because kust was all about it because you know you know how much he loves live Ben he was like well he’s won three times in the past year it’s like that is not true he has not won three times in the past year you’re thinking about this time last year when that was the case he’s won once and it was just just snuck it in below the I think he won at the end of June or something like that it’s been a while since gu was like the the new hot thing on live he’s been kind of not mediocre he’s been better than average but he has not been nearly as good as Louis’s been or burmaster no no I mean as truly every time I I see him on the old Twitter feed or anything else it’s not for uh doing things on the course it’s just for comments um so yeah I mean obviously come on I think we know they should oh they should get Louie uh before anyone but certainly interesting choices and we’ll see we’ll see how it shakes out but overall couldn’t be more excited for this specific PGI yeah and like David P makes a ton of sense to get in like he would I if he was on the PGA tour I don’t know if he’d be treating him like ludvig but he would have been in that Prospect type tier coming up and he went and he won an Asian Tour event and that’s that’s what I found really weird about it that they let Neiman in because obviously he was playing really well live but he also went to the Australia Open and won that and he’s been playing different Asian tour events to try to get to qualify and get world world official World Golf Ranking points where you can’t get them on live gu has done nothing of the sorts to try to do that but again Lou and berter I mean between them they have three DP World Tour wins in the past six months or Sunshine tour whatever the hell they’re calling those events that happen in South Africa but they went and they’re playing in these other events to try to qualify I thought that if you if there were exemptions to be had by that it would have been given to the guys that actually tried to qualify for these things not someone who was just sitting at home crying on Twitter absolutely it’s it’s so sad to see that you know like we’re trying to just do this stuff where the guys that need to try and make it are trying to do this due diligence and they’re not being rewarded for it and then you know gu just shows up and gets the A on the team project after just tweeting you know pretty much the whole night away so is this is this it for him though like if he has a bad PGA Championship this time around he’s never really played played all that well in Majors then is like no more exemptions for him like he’s going to be like like he kind of has to play well here to save his reputation yeah I think he’s used up his kind of free free squares or passes so uh and hey and that that’s the point to make like I I totally respect guys that are like okay I’m gonna I’m gonna showcase myself in the situation I’m gonna go to and do these extra things to kind of prove that I belong he’s done literally the opposite of that in in every way and that to me kind of volumes yeah and if we only ever get to see him on live it’s sort of I mean we know that Brooks is good like if it was me and and maybe just they want to reward him because there was such you know fervor around it but I don’t think Patrick Reed’s in this event I don’t think that Sergio is in this event like I would have given it to those guys Abe answer like I I and maybe that’s just my bias thinking like when I used to compare them when they all played together on the PGA tour gu has been way better than all those guys since they’ve went to live but if I was thinking about like the quality of player that goes into it I just and if you’re the PGA Championship and you want to quote unquote get eyeballs or get names like those guys are bigger names than Taylor gu is that doesn’t even have a y in his name just an L it’s real weird real weird to spell don’t like it and his best finish he’s got a 14th and a 20th in 2022 Masters like that’s it like it’s been bad every other major it’s it’s like we need to see something buddy or you’re going to just get kicked out the restaurant it’s it’s go time all right that’ll do it on the pat Mayo experience rate and review the podcast while you’re here smash like and sub to the channel we got a bunch of new shorts that are coming out you can follow us on Instagram for that or check out the shorts on YouTube our Tik Tok account is now flourishing uh with just the best of from these shows whether it’s me whether it’s Paul Cody Jeff Byron and Kenny are popping up on there as well we got it all covered for you so please go subscribe to those social channels as well fantasy national.com Mayo will not only get you 20% off if you get the weekly membership on Wednesday you get three tournaments for the price of one including the PGA Championship so if you’re ever on the fence go do that now and along with all the tools you get the best leaderboard app in the game which you will only use to track golf from this point forward all right I’m Pat Mayo thank you for watching I’ll see you next time experience experience