UFC St. Louis Full Card Predictions and Breakdown

👊 UFC Fight Night Lewis vs Nascimento Full Card Breakdown 💥

Hey fight fans, welcome back to my channel! This Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento at St. Louis is gearing up to be an interesting showdown and I’m here to break it all down for you. From the prelims to the main event, I’ll give you a comprehensive analysis of each fighter, their stats, recent fight history, and my prediction based on a combination of data science models and fight analysis. Whether you’re here to confirm your picks, avoid betting mistakes, or just for the thrill of the fight, I’ve got you covered!

📊 What I’ve Got for You:

– Statistical Analysis: I’ll break down the numbers, offering a side-by-side comparison of striking, grappling, and overall fight IQ.
– Fight History Review: Understanding where they’ve been helps us predict where they’re going. I’ll look into recent performances that could influence the outcome.
– Data Science Predictions: I’ve crunched the numbers through 7 different prediction models, providing a weighted forecast that’s more than just a gut feeling.
– Personal Picks: Combining hard data with the nuances of fighter styles and recent performances, I’ll offer my own predictions for each fight. I combine qualitative and quantitative data to make highly accurate predictions, around 70% accurate on average!

This card is packed with potential, and whether you’re here to fine-tune your bets, get a new perspective, or just ramp up your excitement for the event, I’ve got something for you.

Patreon link for support: https://www.patreon.com/MMADataGuy

Matchups:

1. Veronica Hardy vs JJ Aldrich 1:19
2. Kevin Jousset vs Jared Gooden 7:08
3. Jake Hadley vs Charles Johnson 12:16
4. Trey Waters vs Billy Goff 16:56
5. Tabitha Ricci vs Tecia Pennington 21:55
6. Esteban Ribovics vs Terrance McKinney 26:20
7. Viacheslav Borshchev vs Chase Hooper 31:13
8. Nursulton Ruziboev vs Joaquin Buckley 36:07
9. Mateusz Rebecki vs Diego Ferreira 41:57
10. Robelis Despaigne vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta 47:16
11. Sean Woodson vs Alex Caceres 51:21
12. Carlos Ulberg vs Alonzo Menifield 56:35
13. Rodrigo Nascimento vs Derrick Lewis 61:34

If you find my content valuable, please consider hitting that like button and subscribing. Please also check out the patreon (link above) if you would like to contribute to my efforts. Your support is what fuels my late nights of data analysis, model adjustments, and content creation. It’s been an incredible journey growing this community of passionate MMA fans, and every like, comment, and subscribe means the world to me.

#UFCstlouis #ufc #UFCpicks #UFCpicks #ufcbets #ufcpredictions #ufcdataanalysis #ufcanalysis #ufc #ufcpicks #ufcpredictions #ufcbets #ufcanalysis #ufcfightpicks #UFCFightNight #MMAAnalysis #FightPredictions #MMACommunity #ufcfightnight #ufcpredictions #ufc #mma #ufcpicks #fightanalysis #datascience #ufcbets #ufc #ufcfightnight #ufcpredictions #ufcbets #fightanalysis #mma #datascience #fightpredictions #DerrickLewis #RodrigoNascimento #AlonzoMenifield #CarlosUlberg #AlexCaceres #SeanWoodson #WaldoCortesAcosta #RobelisDespaigne #DiegoFerreira #MateuszRebecki #JoaquinBuckley #NursultonRuziboev #ChaseHooper #ViacheslavBorshchev #TerranceMcKinney #EstebanRibovics #BillyGoff #TreyWaters #CharlesJohnson #JakeHadley #JaredGooden #KevinJousset #JJAldrich #VeronicaHardy

UFC Fight Night Lewis versus nasimo is this Saturday and for each fight including the prelims I’m going to compare stats review recent fight history analyze the results of each of my seven data science prediction models give a combined weighted prediction of those models and then give a final prediction which considers both quantitative and more importantly qualitative information combined later this week I’ll also upload a video covering promising underdogs and inexpensive favorites to highlight some opportunities for you all hopefully you can use these predictions and data to confirm your picks avoid mistakes and find some value bets or for entertainment and information purposes to prepare for this upcoming event please go ahead and like And subscribe if you find this interesting informative or helpful as it’ll help keep me motivated in creating these videos for you all I’ve also added my patreon information in the description if you want to support me through that for5 or $10 a month definitely not required but it would be very much appreciated running this data and Analysis each of the prediction models the fight simulations the charts and graphs and updating the website takes hours every single day and week so I’d really appreciate the support and thank you all for the recent support that you have shown I can’t believe I’m over 700 subscribers now it truly means the world to me that we can all continue to share this passion for MMA together and build our community so let’s go ahead and Jump Right In For the first fight we have JJ Aldridge versus Veronica Hardy let’s go ahead and review their stats JJ Aldridge is 5′ 5 in tall with the reach of 67 in and she’s 31 years old on the other hand Veronica Hardy is 5′ 4 in tall with a reach of 64 in and is 28 years old now when it comes to striking JJ Aldridge lands 4.05 strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy Veronica Hardy on the other hand lands 3.27 strikes per minute at a 45% accuracy as far as grappling goes JJ Aldridge lands 71 takedowns on average at a low 25% accuracy While Veronica Hardy on the other hand lands a higher 1.27 takedowns on average with a higher 41% accuracy and lastly when it comes to defense JJ aldrid absorbs 4.53 strikes per minute with a 60% striking defense and a 66% takedown defense whereas Veronica Hardy absorbs 4.1 strikes per minute with a 46% striking defense and a 57% takedown defense now let’s check out JJ aldrich’s recent fight history recently she’s coming off of a win against Montana de la R Roa via unanimous decision which was back in October 7 2023 some of the notable opponents that she’s defeated include Leon na Jillian Robertson Vanessa demopoulos and Courtney Casey some of the opponents that she’s lost to include Ariana D Silva Aaron blanchfield and Macy Barber her total record is 13 wins and six losses and out of those 13 wins three were ko/ tko’s 10 were decision victories and she has no submissions which gives her a low 23% finish rate out of her six losses one was a ko/ TKO two were submissions and three were decision losses Aldridge also has two first round finishes recently she’s won three out of her last five fights and she’s currently on a two-fight win streak her most recent win was again back in October 2023 and her most recent loss was back in March of 2023 she’s also fought a few fights in Invicta FC and she’s won a majority of them now let’s check out Veronica Hardy’s recent fight history recently Hardy’s coming off of a win against Jamie lorth via Split Decision which was back in December 2nd 2023 some of the notable opponents that she’s defeated include Jam Lyn horth Juliana Miller and paulana Vienna and some of the notable opponents that she’s lost to include B Miki Andrea Lee and Ashley Evans Smith her total record is eight wins and four losses and out of her eight wins one was a ko/ TKO two were submissions and five were decision victories which also gives her a low but slightly higher 38% finishing rate out of her four losses one was a ko/ TKO one was a submission and two or decision losses she also has two first round finishes she’s recently won three out of her last five fights and she’s currently on a two-fight win streak her most recent win was back in December of 2023 and her most recent loss was all the way back in March 2020 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average and my final pick that takes that and adds other non-stat based research and fight film study observations so first let’s talk about the stats one out of seven of my prediction models lean towards J J Aldrich and six lean towards Veronica Hardy when we weigh the prediction models together we get about a 61% probability for Veronica Hardy now for my final prediction I knocked that down a little bit and I give her a 60% probability of Victory and the reason I knocked it down just a little bit is because JJ Aldridge has a height advantage of an inch she also has a reach advantage of 3 in she lands a little bit more strikes per minute she has a slightly better striking accuracy almost non-existent of a difference but still she has a 14% higher striking defense and a 10% higher takedown defense so the reason I’m picking Veronica Hardy at least statistically speaking is due to the fact that Veronica Hardy is 3 years younger she absorbs less strikes per minute she lands more takedowns on average and with a better accuracy but let me do you guys a favor let’s step away from the stats for a bit I know everyone says I focus on stats a lot and some of the people that are new to the channel they don’t really think that I do research or look outside the statistics so what I’m going to start doing is is is stepping away from the stats after giving you guys the statistical predictions and giveing you guys more support for my reasoning so Veronica Hardy has pulled off upsets in her previous fights and her fighting style is very aggressive she’s also more comfortable on the ground compared to Aldrich and proficient in her submissions Aldrich also has a striking oriented style so hardy should aim to leverage her grappling here where she does have an advantage Hardy is also resilient and mentally tough she’s she she’s gotten over a few concussions and things like that throughout her career plus her recent performances indicate that she’s improved her strategy and her execution Under Pressure she’s also shown some improvements in her defensive maneuvering which is very crucial against a fighter like Aldridge now ALR has a background in Taekwondo and it’s no surprise that her primary weapon will be striking and she’ll look to try to keep the fight standing Aldrich will keep a high pace and pressure which might prevent Hardy from setting up takedown and controlling the pace plus if aldrige sharpen or take down defense then this will not be an easy win for Hardy just Playing devil’s advocate for a second here however Aldridge has shown inconsistencies in her fights and Hardy can capitalize onor weaknesses here Hardy is coming off of two wins and her performances such as the one against Juliana Miller suggest that she’s definitely evolved as a fighter I don’t see her finishing Aldridge in this fight but I do see her using her grappling skill and controlling the fight this one will likely go to the judges for a unanimous decision and Hardy will likely get her hands raised moving on to the next fight we have Jared Gooden versus Kevin Jay let’s go ahead and review their stats Jared Gooden is 6 feet tall with a reach of 77 in and is 30 years old and on the other hand we have Kevin Jay who is 6′ 2 in tall with a reach of 75 in which is 2 in shorter and at 31 years old now when it comes to striking Jerry Gooden lands 5.08 strikes per minute at a 49% accuracy and Kevin juet on the other hand lands 8.23 strikes per minute at a slightly higher accuracy of 55% as far as grappling goes Jerry Gooden lands 67 takedowns at a pretty decent accuracy while Kevin jet on the other hand lands 1.51 takedowns on average with a 66% accuracy and lastly when it comes to defense Jerry Gooden absorbs 6.68 strikes per minute with a 48% striking defense and a 65% takedown defense whereas Kevin J absorbs 5.1 strikes per minute with a 53% striking defense and a decent takedown defense let’s talk about Jerry Gooden’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Wellington Turman which was via submission back in December 2nd 2023 and some of the notable opponents that he’s defeated include Demarcus Jackson Doug Usher which was actually a title fight Curtis Miller and Aaron Hiba and some of the notable opponents that he’s lost to include carlston Harris Randy Brown and Abu bakar norago medov his total record is 23 wins and nine losses and out of his 23 wins 11 were k/ tkoos seven were submissions and five were decision victories which gives him a pretty good 78% finishing rate and out of his nine losses two of them were ko/ tkoos and the other seven were all decision losses Gooden also has four first round finishes and recently he’s won three out of his last five fights and he’s currently coming off off of a win into this fight now let’s talk about Kevin J’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against song kinan via unanimous decision which was back in December 9 2023 he has a total record of 10 wins and only two losses and out of his 10 wins five of them were ko/ tkoos one was a submission and four were decision victories which gives him a 60% finishing rate out of his two losses one of them was a ko/ TKO and the other was a decision loss he also has four first round finishes and he’s recently winning all five of his last five fights and he’s also on a five fight win streak his most recent win was back in December of 2023 and his most recent loss was in July of 2022 now let’s take a look at what the prediction models predicted their weighted average in my final picks that take that and add other non- statistics based research and fight film studying observations as well none of the prediction models lean towards Jerry Gooden in all seven lean towards Kevin Jay when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 72% % probability for Kevin now for my final prediction I give him a slightly less confident 70% probability that’s due to the fact that Jerry Gooden is a year younger he has a reach advantage of 2 in he has a 34% higher takedown accuracy just a couple statistical things that made me knock that down a little bit now the reason I’m picking Kevin is due to the fact that Kevin has a height advantage of 2 in he lands more strikes per minute at about 3.15 he has a 7% higher striking accuracy he absorbs 1.58 less strikes per minute he has a 5% higher striking defense he lands 84 more takedowns on average and he has a 35% higher takedown defense and lands a little bit more submissions on average as well but let’s step away from the stats for just a second he’s better with his striking his takedowns and his counter punching as well Jay will use a size advantage to manage the distance in land strikes while staying out of Gooden’s range and more importantly J has a background in Judah and his experience in many MMA organizations has given him a very versatile skill set his Judo will be advantageous in managing good and’s aggressive striking by potentially taking the fight to the ground where he can control the pace and positioning he’s also been on a winning streak and his fights such as the unanimous decision against s kinan show that he’s able to compete effectively over the distance of a fight which he’ll need to use against a hard hitter such as Gooden Jay also has trained at City kickboxing which has a strong reputation of training intelligent and strategic Fighters such as your guys like Israel adna Alexander volovski Kai Cara France Dan hooker Tyson Pedro just to name a few Kevin has also won 83% of his total fights 50% of which he finished via ko/ TKO he’s currently on that five-fight win streak and he’s won both of his UFC fights and he’s never lost backtack fights in his professional fighting career there’s a slim chance that he finishes good in but most likely this will go to the judges for a unanimous decision Victory after he tires good and out he controls him and he uses his elusiveness to avoid those powerful shots I honestly think that Kevin has the potential to be a threat in this Division and with a win this weekend he’ll likely continue that run for the next fight we have Charles Johnson versus Jake Hadley let’s go ahead and review their stats Charles Johnson is 5′ 8 in tall with a reach of 70 in and is 33 years old on the other hand Jake Hadley is 5′ 6 in tall with a reach of 70 in and is 27 years old when it comes to striking Charles Johnson lands 4.45 strikes per minute at a 55% accuracy Jake Hatley on the other hand lands 3.42 strikes per minute at a lower 44% accuracy as far as grappling goes Charles Johnson lands 0 48 takedowns at a low 23% accuracy while Jake Hadley on the other hand lands 32 takedowns at a 25% accuracy so they’re pretty similar when it comes to the grappling stats lastly when it comes to defense Johnson absorbs 3.15 strikes per minute with a 59% striking defense and a 63% takedown defense whereas Jake Hadley absorbs 3.2 strikes per minute with a 60% striking defense and a lower 35% takedown defense now let’s check out Charles Johnson’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Azad mum via unanimous decision back in February 3rd 2024 he’s defeated guys like Jimmy flick Carlos Moda which was a title fight and jao camoo which was also a title fight and he’s also lost to guys such as Rafael estom Cody Duran OD Osborne and mohamd MV also Brandon royval almost forgot about that one so his total record is 14 wins and six losses which is not the best total record to have and out of his 14 wins six of them were Kos tko’s three of them were submissions and five of them were decision victories which gives them a pretty average 64.3% finishing rate nothing too spectacular out of his six losses none of them were KO tkoos or submissions all six of them were decision losses and he also has four first round finishes recently he’s only won two out of his last five fights but he is coming off of a win into this fight his most recent win was again back in February of this year his most recent loss goes back to November of 2023 now let’s check out Jake Hadley’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a loss against Cody Duren via unanimous decision which was back in August 5th 2023 some of the notable opponents that he’s faced include Malcolm Gordon Carlos candelario Mitch raposo and Luke Shanks which was a title fight and so his total record is 10 wins in two losses and out of his 10 wins three of them were ko/ tkoos five of them were submissions and two have been decision victories which gives him a pretty decent 80% finishing rate out of his two losses both of them were decision losses he also has five first round finishes recently he’s won three out of his last five fights but he is coming off of a loss into this fight his most recent win was back back in March 18 2023 and his most recent loss was back in August 5th 2023 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average and my final pick that takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film studying as well three out of seven of my prediction models lean towards Charles Johnson and four lean towards Jake Hadley when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 52% probability for Charles Johnson however I’m actually going to go opposite of the prediction models here after doing all my research and I’m going to give Jake Hadley a 53 3.9% probability of Victory as due to the fact that Jake Hadley is 6 years younger he has a little bit of a better striking defense he has a slightly better takedown accuracy and he tends to land more submissions on average but let’s step away from the stats for just a little bit if you watch a few fights that Jake Hadley is in you’ll realize that he has noteworthy technical skills and good fight IQ he’s great at adapting a strategy based on his opponent’s weaknesses which is absolutely crucial against a fighter that has a dynamic fighting style such as Charles Johnson Hadley’s ground game and submission skills are also solid which will likely be advantageous against Johnson who hasn’t really been exposed to High Caliber submission artists previously I also wanted to point out to you all how Hadley has been focusing on enhancing a striking to complement his ground game which will develop him into a well-rounded fighter who may have the upper hand in both the standup and ground exchanges coming into this fight his recent performances have had key improvements and he’s carrying some confidence coming into to this fight which is pretty good for his mental strength and his resilience some last few things that I wanted to mention for you all is that he has won 83% of his total fights 50% of which was via submission and he’s finished 80% of his total wins his technical skill and strategic preparation will likely get the job done in this fight and there’s a good chance that he may get a submission but I’m kind of leaning more towards this going to the judges and Johnson just being outclassed by Hadley in the next fight we have Billy G versus Trey Waters let’s go ahead and review their stats bilof is 5′ 9 in tall with a reach of 72 in and is 25 years old and on the other hand Trey Waters is 6′ 5 in tall with reach of 77 in and is 29 years old when it comes to striking Billy goof lands 10.22 strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy Trey waters on the other hand lands 6.45 strikes per minute at a 45% accuracy as far as grappling goes Billy golf lands 4.04 takedowns on average at a 40% accuracy while Trey waters on the other hand lands 7 eight takedowns on average at a 50% accuracy and lastly when it comes to defense Billy goof absorbs 4.3 strikes per minute with a 64% striking defense and a pretty decent takedown defense as well whereas Trey Waters absorbs 3.95 strikes per minute with a 61% striking defense and a 77% takedown defense now let’s check out Billy golf’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against yuku koshida via KO TKO back in August 26 2023 his total record is 9 n wins and only two losses and out of his nine wins seven of them were k/ tkoos and two were decision victories which gives him a pretty decent 78% finishing rate out of his two losses one was a ko/ TKO and one was a decision loss he also has four first round finishes recently he’s won all five of his last five fights and he’s currently on a win streak of seven wins in a row Billy off’s most recent win was back in August 2023 his most recent loss was like 5 years ago back in September 2019 now let’s check out Trey waters’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Josh quinland via unanimous decision which was back in April 2023 and some of the notable opponents that he’s faced include Jaylen feler which was a championship fight Ben Bennett and Elias Ramirez and some of the notable opponents that he’s lost to include Gabriel bonfim So Trey Waters has a total record of eight wins and only one loss and out of his eight wins three of them were k/ tkos three of them were submissions and two or decision victories which gives him a pretty respectable 75% finishing rate now out of his one loss it was a submission loss he also has two first round finishes recently he’s won four out of his last five fights and he’s coming off of two wins in a row into this fight his most recent win was again back in April of 23 and his most recent loss was back in September of 2022 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted they’re weighted average and my final pick that takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film study observations into mind as well so four out of seven of my prediction models lean towards Billy gof and three lean towards Trey Waters and when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 52.5% probability for Billy go to win for my final prediction I give him a slightly less confident 51% probability of Victory as due to the fact that Trey Waters has a height advantage of 7 in into this fight he also has a reach advantage of 5 in and you got to think that that plays a little bit of a role in how the exchanges will go he also absorbs a little bit less strikes per minute and he has a better takedown accuracy but the reason I’m picking Billy Goff at least statistically speaking is due to the fact that Billy goof is four years younger he lands about four more strikes per minute a little bit less than that he has a slightly higher striking accuracy and a better striking defense and he lands more takedowns on average I think it’s about three more takedowns on average and he has better takedown defense as well I think it’s about 23% better but let’s go ahead and step away from the stats for a little bit Goff is a versatile fighter who not only has a strong emphasis on striking but has crazy knockout power as well he’s ended fights early on multiple occasions and his ability to switch stances effectively allows him to adapt his striking angles and kind of confuse his opponents but he’s able to maintain this interesting type of offense unpredictability Billy will need to close the disc distance and apply aggressive forward pressure and use those faints to create openings to get to the inside he will also need to attack those long legs that water has to slow him down and disrupt his rhythm doing this will reduce some of the advantages that Waters has coming into this fight gof will also have to use his ability to fight from Orthodox and Southpaw to create some striking angles which he’s fully capable of doing and he has done before and that’s going to create some unique angles that Waters will inevitably find very difficult to defend against I could see G piecing him up brawling when he needs to while being technical when he needs to as well a few last things I want to mention is that Billy has won 82% of his total fights of which he’s finished 78% of like we said and he’s on a seven fight winning streak and he hasn’t lost since 2019 for all those reasons and everything I’ve discussed Goff is going to get the KO TKO in this one for the next fight we have Tabitha Richie versus Tisha Pennington and if that name sounds sounds a little bit unfamiliar it’s because she used to be Tisha Torres before she got married to Raquel Pennington anyways let’s go ahead and review their stats Tabitha Richie is 5′ 1 in tall with a reach of 61 in and is 29 years old and on the other hand tsha Pennington is 5′ 1 in tall as well with a reach of 60 in just one in shorter and is 5 years older at 34 years old now when it comes to striking Tabatha Richie lands 4.41 strikes per minute and is landing at a 37% accuracy and tia Pennington on the other hand lands 4.74 strikes per minute at a higher 48% accuracy as far as grappling goes tapi the Richie lands 3.39 takedowns on average at a 41% accuracy while Tisha Pennington on the other hand lands 66 takedowns on average at a much less 14% accuracy lastly when it comes to defense tap of the ratio absorbs 4.86 strikes per minute with a 59% striking defense and a 71% takedown defense while Tia Pennington absorbs 3.59 strikes per minute with a 61% striking defense and a 61% takedown defense as well now let’s take a look at tapi the Richie’s recent fight history recently she’s coming off of a loss against lupy godinez via Split Decision back in November 11 2023 and some of the notable opponents that she’s defeated include Gillian Robertson Jessica pen paulan vien Maria Oliva and Shauna Ormsby her total professional record is nine wins and only two losses and out of her nine wins one of them was a ko/ TKO three of them were submissions and five were decision victories which gives her a mediocre 44.5% finishing rate now out of her two losses one was a ko/ TKO and the other was a decision loss she also has two first round finishes recently she’s won four out of her last five fights but she is coming off of a loss into this fight her most recent win was in June 2023 and her most recent loss was again in November 2023 now going on the other side let’s check out out Tisha bennington’s recent fight history recently she’s coming off of a loss against McKenzie D via Split Decision back in April 2022 some of the notable opponents that she’s defeated include Angela Hill Sam Hues Banna fortino Michelle Waton Gomez and Juliana Lima and some of the opponents that she’s lost to include McKenzie D Marina Rodriguez jien way Lee and Yana J her total record is pretty mediocre it’s 13 wins and six losses and out of her 13 wins only one was a chaos TKO only one was a submission and the other 11 went to the decision for her victories which gives her a very low 15.4% finishing rate all six of her losses were decision losses she also has only one first round finish she’s recently winning three out of her last five fights which is pretty good but she is coming off of a loss into this one I was having some trouble because of the last name when it comes to the data and running the prediction models so I couldn’t really run these two through my prediction models because of that however the odd probabilities are giving Tabitha Richie a small 53.5% probability of Victory that’s very narrow but I do generally agree with that because she is the younger fighter she has a small reach Advantage she lands more takedowns on average and with a higher takedown accuracy and she has better takedown defense and lands a little bit more submissions as well but those are all statistical reasons let me now step away from the stats and talk about this fight Tabitha Richie has a black belt in Judo which contributes sign significantly to her grappling and her Ground Control capabilities as we’ve seen in her previous fights she has the ability to control her opponents which could be Troublesome against a striker like Pennington she’s secured multiple wins through decisions and submissions and she’s carrying some momentum coming into this fight she also trains at Paragon BJJ and her grappling and ground fighting training and preparation of this fight were likely tailored to exploit Pennington’s weaknesses a few last things that I wanted to mention are that she’s won 82% of her total fights most of which were via decision and submission and although she’s coming off of a split decision loss she’s won four fights in a row prior to that she has respectable defensive capabilities as well and when you pair that with her Superior takedown skills you can see how she’s positioned to likely dominate this fight I think she gets the decision here or even a late submission if you want to take a little bit of risk in the next fight we have Terence mckin versus eson rovic let’s go ahead and review their stats Terence mckin is 5′ 9 in tall with a reach of 73 in and his 29 years old and on the other hand eston ribovich is also 5’9 in tall but he has a 4 in smaller reach at 69 in and is one year younger at 28 years old when it comes to striking Terence mckin lands 4.46 strikes per minute at a 52% accuracy and eston ribovich on the other hand lands 6.16 strikes per minute at also a 52% accuracy as far as grappling goes Terence mckin lands 3.52 takedowns on average with a low 36% accuracy and estabon rovic on the other hand lands only. N5 takedowns on average but at a better 66% accuracy and lastly when it comes to defense Terence mcky absorbs 2.5 strikes per minute with a 44% striking defense and an 85% takedown defense whereas eston rovic absorbs 3.4 strikes per minute with a 52% striking defense and a lower 60% takedown defense now let’s take a look at Terence McKenna’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of WI against Brandon morote via ko/ TKO back in October 14 2023 some of the notable opponents that he’s defeated include Mike Breeden Eric Gonzalez and Matt fola and some of the notable opponents that he’s lost to include is bonam Drew Dober and Derek Miner Terence McKenna’s total record is 15 wins and six losses and out of those 15 wins seven of them were Kos tkoos and eight of them were submissions so he’s finished 100% of his fights out of 15 fights and out of his six losses four of them were chos koos which you could attribute to his aggressive style and two of them were submissions so he’s had no decision losses he’s also had 14 first round finishes recently he’s won three out of his last five fights and he is coming off of a two-fight win streak his most recent win was in October 2023 his most recent loss was in July 2023 now let’s check out eson reich’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of win against CA Kirk via unanimous decision back in July 2023 and some of the notable opponents that he’s defeated include Thomas Paul Franco Aranda which was a title fight and Javier basurto which was also a title fight his total record is 12 wins and only one loss and that one loss was against Lo gabov now out of those 12 wins six of them were Kos tkoos five of them were submissions and only one was a decision Victory which also gives them a very high finishing rate of 91% and that loss was a decision loss he also has six first round finishes recently he’s winning four out of his last five fights and he’s coming off of a win into this fight his most recent win was back in July 2023 his most recent loss was a few months before then in March 2023 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average and my final pick that takes that and adds other non-stat based research and five film study observation as well six out of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards teren mckenny and only one is leaning towards eson rovic and when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 9% probability for Terence McKenna however I’m actually going to go opposite of the prediction models here and I’m going to give estban ribovich a very narrow 50.4% probability of Victory and there’s several reasons for that but statistically speaking he’s one year younger he lands 1.7 more strikes per minute he has a 8% higher striking defense and a 30% higher takedown accuracy but stepping away from the stats rovic has demonstrated significant striking power in his previous fights with multiple Knockouts he has the ability to deliver powerful and precise strikes which is a critical advantage against mcken who we know has been vulnerable to Knockouts in the past rovic has shown resilience in his fights and he has overcome early setbacks to secure victories later on in his fights the durability he has is an absolute asset to his fight game especially if this fight goes past the first round he’s also carrying momentum on his side plus again McKenna has struggled with knockouts on mult multiple occasions he’s an inconsistent fighter and even though he does have his own impressive set of capabilities his performance variability could be something that rovic will capitalize on rovic also has the ability to adapt and he’s won 92% of his total fights 50% of which was via KO TKO and he’s finished 91% of his fights he’s a dangerous finisher and he’s coming off of a win he started his career off with 11 wins in a row before finally losing to Lo ROV which even that was a unanimous decision he did not get finished and that was back in UFC 285 I believe I know this is a very unpopular opinion and some people won’t agree with me here but I’m leaning towards rovic in this fight after doing all my research and my analysis in the next fight we have Chase Hooper versus vlv borchev let’s go ahead and review their stats Chase Hooper is 6′ 1 in tall with a reach of 74 in and is 24 years old and all the other hand vishav is 6 feet tall with a reach of 69 in which is 5 in shorter and he’s 3 2 years old so he’s 8 years older when it comes to striking Chase super lands 4.86 strikes per minute at a 51% accuracy vlv on the other hand lands 5.82 strikes per minute with a higher accuracy of 58% as far as grappling goes Chase Hooper lands 1.42 takedowns on average with a low 22% accuracy while vlv doesn’t really have takedown stats recorded and lastly when it comes to defense Chase Hooper absorbs 3.59 strikes per minute with a 36% striking defense and a 55% takedown defense whereas viev absorbs 4.07 strikes per minute with a 56% striking defense and a 36% takedown defense now let’s check out Chase Hooper’s recent fight history recently Chase Hooper’s coming off of a win against Jordan L it via submission back in November 2023 Chase Hooper has a total record of 13 wins and three losses and out of his 13 wins four of them were Kos tkoos six of them were submissions and three were decision victories which is a 77% finishing rate out of his three losses one of them was a Kos TKO and two of them were decision losses he has not been submitted before Chase Hooper also has six first round finishes recently he’s won three out of his last five fights and he’s coming off of back-to-back wins into this fight his most recent win was back in November 2023 his most recent loss was in October 2022 now let’s check out Vish Bev’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a draw against nazim toov which was back in November 11 2023 some of the notable opponents he’s defeated include mahash shet Dakota Bush Chris Duncan and Cory duany and some of the notable opponents that he’s lost to include Mike Davis Mark diase and will Starks his total record is seven wins and three losses not the best record and out of his seven wins six of them were Kos tkoos and one of them was a decision Victory which does give him a pretty decent 86% finishing rate out of his three losses all three of them were decision losses he’s also had three first round finishes recently he’s only won two out of his last five fights and he’s coming off of that draw that I talked about earlier now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average and my final pick that takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film studying observations as well six out of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards Chase Hooper and only one is leaning towards vishv borchev when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 57 .4% probability for Chase Hooper however I’m actually going to go opposite of the prediction models here and give vev borchev a 50.6% probability of Victory and there’s several reasons for that but first statistically speaking he lands about one more strike per minute he has a 7% higher striking accuracy and a 20% higher striking defense but let’s step away from the stats for just a second borchev not only has impressive striking skills but he has insane power behind his hands he’s delivered IED several Knockouts throughout his career and against a fighter like Hooper who has shown vulnerabilities against Strikers that’s very critical he’s also bounc back from his losses he’s been in some pressure fights he’s resilient and he can make the most even out of some rough situations in the Octagon he trains out of Team Alpha Male so he has some well-known coaches and sparring partners and he has experience and is focused if you’re wondering who else has fought at Team Alpha Male they’ve had guys like Uriah Faber TJ Dillashaw Cody gar Davidson figuro and Clay Guida and all of those guys have been former Champions whether it’s in the UFC or in klay’s case in Strike Force besides the drama from Team Alpha Male they’ve raised and trained some very respectable Talent also Hooper doesn’t really have the best striking defense especially against pressure Fighters that are very powerful and you’d best believe that borchev knows this coming into this fight Hooper is also a very predictable fighter no disrespect to him but his game plan is always very predict able he relies on his grappling often and as long as borchev has done the most basic level of due diligence and studying he’ll likely pick up on that and train to keep this fight standing and leverage those striking advantages that he has now a few other things that I wanted to mention are that although borchev has only won 64% of his total fights he’s finished 86% of his wins via ko/ TKO and he has the power to get the job done I personally think that borchev gets the ko/ TKO in this fight but it really depends on how prepared he is to handle Hooper’s grappling but I want to hear what you guys have to think about this fight so let me know in the comments Below in the next fight we have waim Buckley versus nulton Roso let’s go ahead and review their stats waim Buckley is 5 8 in tall I know I have the wrong number up there but he’s 5′ 8 in tall he has a reach of 76 in and he’s 30 years old and on the other hand we have nulton rbo who is 6′ 5 in tall yes that is correct 6′ 5 in tall with reach of 76 in and is 30 years old when it comes to striking wem Buckley lands 4.06 strikes per minute at a 34% accuracy and rosbo have on the other hand lands 3.93 strikes per minute at a higher 43% accuracy as far as grappling goes waim Buckley lands 1.4 takedowns on average at a 36% accuracy while rosev on the other hand lands 3.27 takedowns at a pretty decent accuracy and lastly when it comes to defense wae Buckley absorbs 3.26 strikes per minute with a 58% striking defense and a 69% takedown defense whereas rosev absorbs 87 strikes per minute with a 80% striking defense and no takedown defense recorded now let’s check out wae Buckley’s recent fight history recently wae Buckley is coming off of a win against vente luk via KO TKO back in March 2024 some of the opponents that wae Buckley has defeated include Alex morono Andre fialo Albert durv and Abdul razak alhassan and some of the opponents that he’s lost to include Kevin Holland Chris Curtis and nerine imav his total record is 18 wins in six losses not the greatest record but out of his 18 wins 13 of them were k/ tkoos which is kind of impressive and the other five were decision victories which gives him a 72.3% finishing rate out of his six losses four of them were k/ tkoos which is likely due of his aggressive fighting style and two of them were decision losses W Buckley also has four first round finish fines and he’s recently won three out of his last five fights and he’s coming off of a three-fight win streak into this fight his most recent win was just a few months ago in March 30th 2024 his most recent loss was all the way back in December of 2022 he’s also had several fights in Bellator and he’s won a majority of them now on the other hand let’s check out nuron razo’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against sedric Dumas via KO TKO which was back in March 30th 2024 now his total record is 34 wins and eight losses and out of his 34 wins 12 of them were Kos tkoos 20 of them were submissions and two were decision victories which gives him an insane 94.2% finish rate which out of 34 fights that’s very impressive out of his eight losses one of them was ko/ TKO one of them was a submission and the remaining six were decision losses he also has 25 first round finishes recently he’s won all five of his last five fights he’s current currently on a 10-fight win streak now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average and my final pick that takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film studying as well three out of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards walking Buckley and four of them are leaning towards n suon or rbo when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 54 1.5% probability for resbo f however I’m actually going to go opposite of the prediction models here and I’m going to give waim Buckley a 52.7% probability of Victory and there’s several reasons for that but statistically he tends to land more strikes per minute but stepping away from the stats for just a little bit if you’ve seen Buckley fight you know he’s a fighter that’s known for his grit and his striking skill even though he doesn’t have the height Advantage coming into fights or the reach Advantage none of that he is a gritty fighter he gets it done he delivers powerful and precise strikes and he doesn’t just get the job done here he produces some of the most impressive and scary Knockouts in UFC history and if you don’t believe me please go look up the spinning back kick knockout against impa also in case you guys didn’t know this card is taking place in St Louis which is actually Buckley’s Hometown so you already know he’s going to have all sorts of crowd support behind his back that’s going to undoubtedly give him some level of confidence coming into this fight he’s also done really well since moving back down to welterweight and his adaption to this Division and his recent performances suggests that he’s well suited to compete at 170 lbs plus here’s the thing rosbo is moving down from middleweight to welterweight for this fight and I don’t think that this is getting talked about enough even though he’s saying that the weight cut is easy for him if you’ve been watching MMA for a bit you know what that does to a fighter bouncing around weight classes like that is absolutely no joke and you might be wondering well what’s the deal MMA data guy it’s only 15 lbs I could lose that by crash dieting listen guys he’s already lean and that does a number to your body not only does it impact your strength and endurance but research has shown that it affects your recovery your brain health and your adaptation as a fighter just isn’t as effective when you do that also rosev has some vulnerability against Knockouts which has an opportunity for Buckley written all over it a few other quick things he’s coming off of three wins he’s won eight out of 12 of his UFC fights his last loss was back in late 2022 he’s recently coming off of a win just this past March he’s also won 75% of his total fights and he’s finished 72% of his wins which were via KO TKO and I know that this probably isn’t a popular opinion either I know a lot of people are going for the other guy here but if you haven’t been able to tell by my reasoning by my support research and Analysis I’m leaning towards a ko/ TKO from Buckley regardless of what you think or if you disagree with me that’s totally fine but one thing we can all agree on is that this is going to be a fun fight in the next fight we have Diego Ferrera versus matus recki let’s go ahead and review their stats Diego Ferrera is 5′ 8 in tall with reach of 74 in and is 39 years old on the other hand matus rebecky is 5′ 6 in tall with a reach of 66 in and is 31 years old which is 8 years of a difference and is huge in MMA from 31 to 39 anyways when it comes to striking Diego ferera lands 4.66 strikes per minute at a 37% accuracy and matus rebecky on the other end lands 5.31 strikes per minute at a higher 53% accuracy as far as grappling goes Diego Ferrera lands 71 takedowns on average at a 22% accuracy while matus rebecky on the other hand lands 4.16 takedowns on average at a higher 72% accuracy which is very impressive and lastly when it comes to defense Diego Ferrero absorbs 3.42 strikes per minute with a 56% striking defense and a 63% takedown defense whereas matus recki absorbs two strikes per minute with the 63% striking defense and a 66% takedown defense now let’s check out Diego ferrero’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Michael Johnson via K TKO which was back in May 2023 his total record is 18 wins and only five losses and out of his 18 wins four of them were k/ tkoos seven of them were submissions and seven of them were decision victories which gives them a pretty modest 61.2% finishing rate out of his five losses three of them were via ko/ TKO and two of them were decision losses he also has four first round finishes recently he’s only won two out of his last five fights but he is coming off of a win into this fight his most recent win was back in May 2023 and his most recent loss was back in December 2021 now let’s check out matus rebeck’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Roosevelt Roberts via submission back in November 2023 rebeck’s total record is 19 wins and only one loss and out of his 19 wins nine of them were Kos tkoos seven of them were submissions and only three decision victories which gives him an impressive 84.3% finishing rate out of his one loss it was a ko/ TKO loss he has 10 first round finishes recently he’s won all five of his last five fights in fact he’s on a 16 fight win streak his most recent win was back in November 2023 his most recent loss was all the way back in 2014 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average and my final picks that take that and add other non- statistics based resear and fight filmm study observation as well only one out of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards Diego Ferrera and the other six are leaning towards matus recki when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 68% probability for matus rebecky to win and from my final prediction I give him a slightly less confident 66% probability of Victory there’s a couple reasons for that but statistically speaking Diego Ferrera has high advantage of 2 in and he has a reach advantage of 8 in but the reason I’m choosing matus recki is due to the fact that he’s 8 years younger he lands 65 more strikes per minute he has a 16% higher striking accuracy he absorbs 1.41 less strikes per minute he has a 7% higher striking defense and he lands 3.45 more takedowns on average with a higher takedown accuracy and better takedown defense as well he also lands about one more submission on average but stepping away from the stats for a little bit rebecky is known for his BJJ and for his background in Muay Thai and kickboxing which in case you didn’t know he started training at the age of 17 years old he also has a very strong ground game which you can tell from his fights where he’s won via submission including that armbar Victory against Roosevelt Roberts and he even has several wins via knockout as well his approach recently has been a great blend of aggressive striking and tactical grappling he’s effective with his wrestling and controls opponents when needed now I know you might be concerned about his pacing and his cardio if you’ve observed him but he’s proven himself to be able to manage high-intensity fights over multiple rounds given forer’s weakness to Knockouts rebecky will most likely apply pressure early on in the fight which might exploit ferrera’s defensive gaps while also using faints and some varying attack angles to keep Ferrera off balance and after looking through their fights I’d say rebecky has a slight Advantage when it comes to grappling and his ground game as well he’s won 95% of his total fights while finishing 84% of his wins and again he’s on that crazy 16 fight win streak and I know that past performances might not be indicative of future outcomes but you still have to understand how good you have to be to be on a 16 fight win streak in MMA he’s also won all three of his UFC fights and his most recent loss was all the way back in 2014 I know that year feels like it was just yesterday but that was 10 years ago now look I’ll be honest in order for rebecky to win this fight he seriously needs to Pace himself and efficiently utilize his stamina because if he does doesn’t it will be Troublesome for him but I do see him using a striking to manage his range and maintain a high but controlled aggression eventually I could see him finding an opening and an opportunity and Landing a powerful damaging shot or several shots to get him the KO TKO in this fight in the next fight we have Waldo Cortez aosta versus robell despain let’s go ahead and review their stats Waldo cortis aosta is 6′ 4 in tall with a reach of 78 in and is 32 years old and on the other hand rebell is dispan is 6′ 6 in tall with the reach of 84 in and is 35 years old now before we get into their fighting stats I want to let you guys know that rebellis dispan Stats come from only one fight so when it comes to striking Waldo Cortez aosta LS 6.13 strikes per minute at a 47% accuracy robella dispan on the other hand lands 23.33% accuracy lastly when it comes to defense Waldo Cortez aosta absorbs 4.02 strikes per minute with a a 52% striking defense and a 60% takedown defense whereas rebellis to Spain absorbs 6.67 strikes per minute with a 60% striking defense and no recorded takedown defense now let’s check out Waldo Cortez a Costa’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Andre rovski via unanimous decision which was back in January of 2024 some notable opponents that he’s defeated include Lucas brki Chase Sherman Jared vendera and Danilo suzar his total record is 11 wins in only one loss and out of his 11 wins five of them were k/ tkoos one was a submission and five were decision victories which gives him a modest 55% finishing rate and his one loss was a decision loss he didn’t get finished it wasn’t a submission nor did he get knocked out or anything wo corz aosta also has three first round finishes and recently he’s been doing pretty well he’s won four out of his last five fights and he’s currently on a winning streak of two wins back to back his most recent win was in January of 2024 and his most recent loss was in April of 2023 now let’s check out rebellis dis Spain’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Josh perisian via KO TKO which was back in March of 2024 his total record is five wins and no loss and all five of his wins were ko/ tko’s which means that not only does he have a 100% finishing rate but all five of those finishes came within the first round which is insane now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted they’re weighted average and my final pick that that takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film studying as well only one out of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards Waldo cus aosta and the other six are leaning towards reell to Spain and when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 60% probability for rebellis to Spain to win now for my final prediction I give him a slightly less confident 58% probability of Victory and there’s a couple reasons for that but statistically speaking Waldo Cortez aosta is 3 years younger and he absorbs 2.65 less strikes per minute but the reason that I’m picking Rebels to Spain at least statistically is due to the fact that he has an he has a height advantage of 3 in he has a reach advantage of 6 in he lands 17 more strikes per minute and has a 30% higher striking accuracy and 8% higher striking defense but again that’s all based on one fight so let’s step away from the stats for just a little bit despain is an Olympic Taekwondo bronze medalist I don’t know if you all knew that but I wanted to bring that to light he’s brought those unique skills over to MMA his Taekwondo background gives him an edge when it comes to his striking especially with his sharp kicks in his distance maintenance he has insane power as well as all of his previous fights again were finished via ko/ TKO and they were all within the first round after looking into both of these Fighters past performances i’ say despain has a bit of a speed Advantage as well he’s really good at executing these rapid and Powerful strikes which often overwhelm his opponent opponents now again he’s never lost he’s coming off of a five fight win streak and he just won this past March he’s finished all five of those fights and again it’s all in the first round based on that and based on the weaknesses of Waldo Cortez a Costa I think he’s going to get another KO such TKO in this fight he has some serious Talent some serious power and he has a lot of potential in the next fight we have Alex SARS versus Shawn Woodson let’s go ahead and review their stats Alex is 5′ 9 in tall with a reach of 73 in and is 35 years old and on the other hand Shawn Woodson is 6’2 in tall with a reach of 78 in and is 31 years old when it comes to striking Alex assar is Lands 4.16 strikes per minute at a 50% accuracy and shod Woodson on the other hand lands 5.4 strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy as far as grappling goes Alex sarz lands .56 takedowns on average at a 68% accuracy while sha Woodson on the other hand lands slightly higher at 76 takedowns on average with a slightly lower accuracy of 62% and lastly when it comes to defense alexar absorbs 2.93 strikes per minute with a 63% striking defense and a 64% takedown defense whereas Shawn Woodson absorbs four strikes per minute with a 58% striking defense and a much higher 84% takedown defense now let’s check out Alex’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a loss against Giga chazi via unanimous decision which was back in August of 2023 some of the notable opponents that he’s defeated include Danielle paneda Julian Arosa song Wu Choy Kevin kro and Austin Springer and some of the notable opponents that he’s lost to include sadique yusf Kon Gracie Wayne Guan and Jason Knight his total record is 21 wins and 14 losses and out of those 21 wins four of them were ko/ tkoos seven of them were submissions and 10 were decision victories which gives them a modest 52.4% finishing rate and out of his 14 losses one was a ko/ TKO and seven were submission losses and the other six were decision losses now Alex assar also has four first round finishes recently he’s won three out of his last five fights but he’s coming off of a loss into this fight his most recent win was back in June of 2023 and the most recent loss he had was back in August of 2023 now let’s check out Shawn Woodson’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Charles jordain via split decis back in January of 2024 some of the notable opponents that he’s defeated include Dennis pucha Colin England Yousef zal and Kyle bachnak and some of the notable opponents that he’s lost to include Julian Osa his total record is 11 wins with only one loss to Julian and out of all 11 of his wins three of them were ko/ tkoos one was a submission and seven were decision victories which gives him a pretty low 36.4% finishing rate and his one loss was a submission loss he’s also had three first round finishes recently he’s done really well he’s won four out of his last five fights and he’s currently coming off of a two-fight win streak his most recent win was in January of 2024 and his most recent loss was actually quite a while ago it was in June of 2020 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average my final pick as well which takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film study observations as well only one of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards Alex and the other six are leaning towards Shawn when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 64.2% probability for Shawn Woodson now from my final prediction I give him a slightly less confident 62% probability that’s due to the fact that Alex has a 4% higher striking accuracy he absorbs 1.07 less strikes per minute he has a 5% higher striking defense and a 7% higher takedown accuracy he also lands a little bit more submissions on average but the reason I’m picking Shawn Woodson at least statistically speaking is due to the fact that he has a height advantage of 4 in he’s also four years younger he has a reach advantage of 5 in he lands 1.24 more strikes per minute he lands a little bit more takedowns on average and he also has a 20% higher takedown defense but let’s step away from the stats for just a second not only does Shawn Woodson have the height Advantage but he’s able to use that Advantage effectively in his fights to maintain distance he makes it very difficult for his opponents to close in without taking a large risk and cesarz would like struggle to bridge that Gap without being exposed to some nasty counter strikes Woodson also has great boxing skills he has sharp and stiff Jabs and Straits all while maintaining a safe distance from his enemies he’s great at controlling the pace and dynamics of a fight with his striking which was easy to notice in fights such as against Dennis pucha he also has great momentum coming into this fight he handles pressure really well and he performs well even against aggressive opponents he has a tactical approach when it comes to his fight game he’s kind of patient when he needs to and then capitalizes on his opponent’s mistakes from what I’ve observed and noticed I’d give him a pretty decent fight IQ rating if I’m being honest and I think he deserves it a few other things that I wanted to mention he’s won 85% of his total fights he’s coming off of two wins into this fight and he’s won a majority of his fights in the UFC and his last loss was all the way back in 2020 now he’s not a big-time finisher he’s more about using his technical skills to control the fight so I believe given all of that research and five film starting on him I think this one’s going to go to the judges and that Woodson will win via unanimous decision for the next fight we have Alonzo menifield versus Carlos ulberg let’s review their stats Alonzo Mani is 6 feet tall with a reach of 76 in and is 36 years old on the other hand Carlos iberg is 6’4 in tall with a reach of 77 in and is 33 years old now when it comes to striking Alonzo Manfield lands 3.92 strikes per minute at a 57% accuracy Carlos ulberg on the other end lands 7.29 strikes per minute at a 59% accuracy and as far as grappling goes Alonzo mfield lands 67 takedowns at a low 33% accuracy while ulberg on the other hand lands a slightly higher 0.95 takedowns on average with a much higher 75% accuracy and lastly when it comes to defense Alonzo absorbs 3.51 strikes per minute with a 49% striking defense and a 75% takedown defense whereas ulberg absorbs 3 .59 strikes per minute with a 52% striking defense and a 75% takedown defense as well now let’s check out Alonzo manfields recent fight history recently is coming off of a win against Dustin Jacobi via unanimous decision back in December 2023 and some of the notable opponents that he’s defeated include Jimmy crud Mesa kirkov ascar mzero and Ed Herman and some of the notable opponents that he’s lost to include William Knight oven St prw and Devin Clark now his total record is 15 wins and only those three losses and out of his 15 wins a majority of them were k/ tko’s 10 to be exact three were submissions and only two were decision victories which gives him an 86.7% finishing rate and out of his three losses one was a Kos TKO and the other two were decision losses he has 10 first round finishes recently he’s done well he’s won four out of his last five fights and he’s currently on a win streak of two coming into this one his most recent win was in December of 2023 and his most recent loss loss was in December of 2021 now let’s check out Carlos holberg’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against D Wun Jung Pia submission back in September of 2023 his total record is 10 wins and only one loss and out of those 10 wins six of them were k/ tkoos two were submissions and two were decision victories which gives him an 80% finishing rate and his only loss was a ko/ TKO loss he also has five first round finishes and recently has won all five of his last five fights and he’s currently on a winning streak of five wins in a row his most recent win was back in September of 2023 and the most recent time that he lost was back in March of 2021 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average in my final pick that takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film studying as well only one out of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards Alonzo Manfield and the other six are leaning towards Carlos ulberg and when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 67.4% probability of victory for Carlos ulberg now for my final prediction I give him a slightly less confidence 64% probability Victory but the reason that I’m going for him here is because statistically speaking he has a height advantage of 4 in he’s three years younger he has a reach advantage of an inch he lands 3.37 more strikes per minute he has a 2% higher striking accuracy a 3% higher striking defense and he lands more takedowns on average as well with a higher accuracy but let’s step away from the stats for just a second ulberg has a strong background in kickbox boxing where he found his success and his kickboxing skill gives him a great set of striking skills that are no joke he delivers these powerful and precise strikes which will cause significant damage against Manfield who is also a striker but he does not match ulberg technical proficiency ulberg is also good at controlling the distance and Landing several strikes while staying out of the range of return fire and you might be wondering why part of it has to do with him being an orthodox fighter and having a great reach that he actually let aages and another part of it is his conditioning but MMA data guy he seemed pretty exhausted in that debut fight I know but studying his fights after that you can clearly see how he’s improved his conditioning a bit and he can carry a high Pace while delivering powerful strikes now he also trains out of City kickboxing who we talked about a little earlier in this video and you already know the kind of Fighters that they produce and in case you forgot already it is Adisa volkanovski Kai car France Dan hooker Shane young and Tyson Pedro who are all very talented so he has the technical striking he has the physical advantages he has good training and good momentum coming into this fight which all positions him to likely win against menifield and if you still don’t believe me he’s won 91% of his total fights and he’s finished 80% of his wins 60% of which were via ko/ TKO he’s also coming off that five-fight win streak and he’s won five out of six of his UFC fights I believe Uber will get the win in this fight and I also think that he’s going to get a ko/ TKO finish as he continues to climb to the top in the next fight we have our main event Derrick Lewis versus Rodrigo naso let’s go ahead and review their stats Derrick Lewis is 6′ Feet 3 in tall with a reach of 79 in and is 39 years old and on the other hand Rodrigo naso is 6’2 in tall with a reach of 80 in and is 31 years old now when it comes to striking Derrick Lewis lands 2.43 strikes per minute at a 50% accuracy and Rodrigo naso on the other hand lands more strikes per minute at 4.31 but at a similar accuracy of 48% as far as grappling goes Derrick Lewis lands only 0.53 takedowns on average at a very low 26% accuracy while Rodrigo nasy Mento on the other hand he lands a much higher 1.2 takedowns on average with a slightly better accuracy of 33% and lastly when it comes to defense Derrick Lewis absorbs 2.48 strikes per minute with a 40% striking defense and a 53% takedown defense whereas Rodrigo naso absorbs 4.76 strikes per minute with a 43% striking defense and a 77% takedown defense now let’s check out Derrick Lewis’s recent fight history now recently he’s coming off of a loss against jelatin all made of a unanimous decision which was back in November of 2023 he’s defeated some good talent such as Marcos rero Del Lima and Chris dacas even Curtis blades and he’s lost to guys like Sergey spag Sergey pavlovich taiu iasa and serl gone which was actually a championship fight his total record is 27 wins and 12 losses which is not too too good and out of his 27 wins 22 were ko/ tko’s only one was a submission and four were decision victories which gives him at 85.2% finishing rate and if you’ve watched any of his fights you know he has heavy hands out of his 12 losses seven of them were Kos tkoos which you could attribute to his really aggressive style two of them were submissions and three were decision losses he also has nine first round finishes recently he’s only won one out of his last five fights which is not good at all and he’s currently coming off of a loss into this fight now switching over to the other side let’s check out Rodrigo naso’s recent fight history recently he’s coming off of a win against Dantel May via unanimous decision which was also back in November of 2023 and some of the notable opponents that he’s defeated include Tanner Bozer Dante ma twice and Michael Martin his only loss was the Finish loss from Chris dais his total record his 11 wins and that one loss and out of his 11 wins two of them were ko/ tkoos six of them were submissions and three were decision victories which gives him a 73% finishing rate he also has six first round finishes and recently he’s done decent he’s won three out of his last five fights but he is on a three-fight win streak coming into this one his most recent win was in November of 2023 and his most recent loss was back in October of 2020 now let’s take a look at what my prediction models predicted their weighted average in my final pick that takes that and adds other non- statistics based research and fight film study observations as well three out of seven of my prediction models are leaning towards Derrick Lewis here and four are leaning towards Rodrigo naso when we weigh the prediction models together we get a 58.3% probability of victory for Rodrigo naso now for my final prediction I give naso a slightly less confident 51% probability of Victory as due to the fact that Derek Lewis is an unpredictable fighter you never know what kind of fighter he’s going going to get with him and sometimes he just lands these powerful shots within the first round that just completely takes the fight over knocks the guy out and it’s a done deal but also statistically Derrick Lewis is the slightly taller fighter he’s a little bit more accurate with his shots and he absorbs less strikes per minute but the reason I’m choosing nasimo is due to the fact that nasimo is8 years younger than him he also has a reach advantage of an inch he lands 1.88 more strikes per minute he has a 3% higher striking defense he lands a little bit more takedowns on average than him he has a 7% higher takedown accuracy and he has a 24% higher takedown defense but let’s step away from the stats for just a second in this analysis look I know Derrick Lewis is a powerful Striker and a fan favorite he’s really fun to watch and he’s hilarious on the mic and when he lands he drops guys like there’s no tomorrow but there are several reasons why not ento will likely beat him this Saturday and I know it’s another unpopular opinion as well but you guys know I do my research I work hard to study all fighters I watch their fights I put in the hours I study their advantages and their disadvantages their training their backgrounds their skills and stats all of that naso is a purple belt BJJ with a high degree of submission skill I think that that grappling Advantage will be crucial against Lewis who has historically shown vulnerabilities against Fighters that have a solid ground game nasimo has the ability to control opponents on the ground now I know what you’re thinking Derrick Lewis has the most knockouts he holds the record he’s strong but that’s the thing he’s Limited in his approach to mixed martial arts he struggles against opponents that can take him down and control him on the ground he just kind of lays there on his back his stamina is almost non-existent to some extent although he has been improving on that recently compared to a few fights ago it’s no surprise that his approach is generally less technical which might set him up for a failure against a technical guy like nasimo not only that but naso is effective even in the later rounds of fights he has better conditioning and a clear strategy Advantage coming into this fight also one thing that doesn’t really get talked about enough is the lack of defense that Derrick Lewis has and his questionable fight IQ at times here are the facts naso has won 11 fights and only lost twice he finished 73% of his fights of which 55% have been submissions 25% were decisions and 18% were ko/ tko’s so he has a pretty good balance between striking grappling and overall fight control he’s coming off of a three-fight win streak he’s won four out of his six UFC fights and his last loss was all the way back in 2020 don’t call me crazy but nasimo will get the decision or submission victory in this fight respect to Lewis and the energy that he brings in and out of the octagon and the power that he has behind those hands but still there’s levels to this game and I have to go with what my research analysis fight film studying and of course what the stats are pointing towards all of those things combined are leading to a nento win and with that said those are all of the fights for UFC finite Lewis versus nasimo I hope you all enjoyed and that your bets hit thank you guys so much for watching please like And subscribe do all that nice stuff it would really mean a lot to me and it’ll help keep me motivated in creating these videos for you all and continuing to do all my research running this data in analysis the prediction models the charts and graphs and watching all those hours of fight history all of that takes hours every single day in week so I always appreciate all of the support that you guys show me and please check out that patreon if you would like to support me through there there’s a $5 $10 monthly option if you would like to throw a little bit help my way thank you guys so much once again and see you all in the next one