Wells Fargo Championship + Myrtle Beach Classic 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 305 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship + Myrtle Beach Classic.

#wellsfargochampionship #myrtlebeachclassic #QuailHollow #PGATOUR #DFS #Golf​ #FantasyGolf #fantasygolfpicks #PGA​ #OneAndDone ​#draftkings #pgatourpicks

Wells Fargo Championship + Myrtle Beach Classic 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:30 Intro
01:35 Rob from Oregon Listener Review
03:17 Last Week
11:56 Myrtle Beach Classic Start
39:16 Wells Fargo Championship Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/wells-fargo-championship-tips-2024/

Wells Fargo Championship Strokes Gained Rankings: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/wells-sg-analysis-2024/

Wells Fargo Championship Form Table:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/wells-combi-stats-2024/

Paul’s Myrtle Beach Classic Betting Preview:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/myrtle-beach-classic-tips-2024/

Myrtle Beach Classic Form Table: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/myrtle-form-stats-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf
Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting
Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V
Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
Podcast Addict: https://podcastaddict.com/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/2197395
Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651
Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

if you li betting on golf but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf betting system podcast it’s episode 305 this is our 2024 Wells Fargo Championship and Myrtle Beach Classic bets pod Barry Ohan rahan and Paul Williams join me Steve banford to discuss our selection for this week’s PGA Tour action good morning jents good morning guys morning guys visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have in-depth betting previews for both events we’ve got Strokes gained rankings for the Wells Fargo player form stats plus of course uh Wells Fargo and Myrtle Beach predictor models all of that content is available across both events completely free of charge with no payall on X follow Barry at a good talk golf Paul is at golf betting I am at Bamford golf please subscribe to the Steve bford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available along with my weekly golf betting show that’s available the golf betting show we’re approaching 4 and a half th000 subscribers on the channel so please subscribe if you are listening to this on the YouTube channel please press that like button now you guys as listeners power this podcast so we need your five star reviews on Apple podcast as ever for those of you who leave a review or will read them out at the start of a future show leave your name and where you are in in the review those reviews are so important for our chart rankings so basically if you write a review it helps other people find our podcast so if you could do that it’d be most appreciated here we go this is from Rob and Rob is in Bend in Oregon the United States of America a perfect pairing for Tuesday hikes with the dog is the title five stars my first episode of the show was number 200 and I’ve been an avid listener ever since each week is is a welcomed blend of humor analysis and insight from three great guys with varied interests and opinions it is a shame live has robbed us of Steve’s Mastery of Chilean dialects can I get a wacky what fun is golf if you can’t be self depreciating in the process of either playing or wagering all three of you are spot on with your Marge Simpson S groans as you recap those each way near misses I appreciate your tireless work to find Diamonds in the Rough for us to jump on each week whoever would have thought that the Mexico open would be my most successful week of betting ever thank you and keep up the great work Rob in Oregon thank you rob that’s awesome stuff Rob really good that’s made me smile Rob thank you I think after last week we need cheing up um yeah God mate Byron Nelson CJ cup I had what the best there there’s one of those GRS I had Adam shank and I had uh mini and they they kept getting kind of involved and then they would rather than like keep going they’d go like oh let’s throw a bogy in or he just can’t do that something like that and I also had McKenzie Hughes who shot two 64s and the you know the rest was dross so uh it just didn’t happen for me t pendrith blasted his way around he he played like seiano ballos around the greens or Paddy Harrington chipping in numerous times and got his first ever pj2 a victory in president’s cupia another Canadian pj2 a Victor there has been a lot of late over the past few years isn’t there Canada they’re going really well yep on the up whenever I had Pat pendrith backed on a Sunday he’d absolutely collapse so um he showed some he showed some guts showed some guts have you got any takes from that event or should we move on it’s just one of those isn’t it yeah as you say your players were in the vicinity at various points but he’s just got got to find those birdies and Eagles or no Bogies when you need to do it and it just wasn’t coming we move on I thought Min wo would dig deep because he uh NOS fat said to me on Twitter that he needed a top four to get into the top 30 with which would then unlock signature level events like this week yep uh yeah just didn’t did nothing great off the absolutely he’s Stellar off the tea that’s the thing with this actually well Hollow would suit him really down to a ground so yeah fantastic of the T it’s just from that point on he’s a funny funny player minw I think he’s the one you just have to keep an eye on there are certain courses certain events I when you look at his winning CV he does t to like 20 under test to win on but then he’ll turn up at something like a US Open and finish top five yeah yeah it’s difficult to really assess I me in my mind I’ve always had him down as more SU Ed to open Coastal kind of areas and tracks um it can can obviously keep the ball very low can’t he with his uh with the Stinger that he plays um but he seems to adapting himself to a number of different tests over as you say he’s popped up in some majors and um he’s he’s off the te games um certainly been an asset of late so perhaps he’s developing into a more rounded player so piding holding him probably isn’t the uh isn’t the game anymore I did say the Koreans in that CJ cup have a terrible record and as ever I mean you get Ben AR and Sh Kim once they know they can’t win the event they play absolutely fantastic Golf and get a good each way place for their backers sh Kim 196 shots over the last 54 holes that was one better than Taya pendrith so he was the best over the last three rounds shq yeah uh what are you doing round one yeah this is this is the thing and Ben AR’s another I could I could get involved with benan this week at qu Hollow but as you know he’s on the Post-it note of Doom so a two what I did take in a lot of this weekend and that was one Brooks kka who dominated live Singapore now there will be some Strokes gain stats coming out later in the week which I will capture for all of my analysis um but just looking at and I’m quickly bringing them up on my screen just looking at his raw traditional numbers for that Victory they were typically what I would be looking for for a PGA Champion next week fourth for driving accuracy this is Brooks kker we’re talking about fourth for driving accuracy fifth for Greens in regulation he was 12th for total driving first for total accuracy and fifth for ball striking he does like a PJ Championship do he what you think happens PJ Championship do you think he got like hypnotized into um thinking it was a major week last week no his words pre live Singapore were the Masters kicked me in the butt and has got me back into the grind and since he got back into the grind he’s been uh he was first for Greens in regulation in Adelaide couldn’t make a putt on those really firm and fast fiery greens at Adelaide and then last week still he was fifth for Greens in regulation and the putter all the UN clicked he wins was it by one from cam Smith and C I think this was cam something like six behind starting the day Brooks just kind of had it under control and just made a couple of big putts coming down the stretch just to keep them at arms length it was a typical Brooks keper Victory all of a sudden though I’m just going to Qui quickly click on the PJ Championship odds and I know you guys will saying oh yes clearly these are these are anti post they will change but I don’t think they’re going to be offering you they’re not going to be doubling the price on Brooks Kea 7 to two Scotty 12 to1 Rory 14 to1 Ram 16 to1 Brooks kka ludvig a oberg almost and then of course sander you’re getting a bit of 20 to one on Xander oh 20’s juicy 20s and you know he’ll be backed in he’ll be 14 to one before that PJ championship starts Mega snap up that 20s for Xander value get all the Thrills and none of the wins and where do you think the other twin is where do you think Klay is have a guess on his price 22 there’s a smidgin of 25s out there but yes in the main 22s it’s just a copy and paste job is but they’re predictable I’ve got my eye on a couple further down the odds that I really do like for um the PGA I’m looking for forward to it anyway we’ll talk about that our next pod listeners is our PJ Championship research podcast which we are recording I believe tell me if I’m wrong chaps it’s this Thursday yep yep y so that’ll be out on Thursday afternoon UK time Thursday morning over in the states is it too early to ask is it too early to ask Santa for a Christmas present of uh kka versus she sheffler next week with Rory just lurking around for for fun quite possible oh mate it’ just be brilliant wouldn’t it I just want to watch St downers Scotty Sheffer yeah who’s literally hexed everybody on the PGA T and Brooks kka The Ultimate Live versus PGA battle good versus evil Jesus I can’t this is going to be brilliant Brooks Capco with the halo around him and Scotty with the dev horn is that it I would be it would be really great to see something like that and let wait eastern time in the states so prime time over here in the UK and Ireland it’s going to be absolutely fantastic and like you said if you could have a Rory hanging about or an oberg you know a bit of bit of interest in there Xander getting his backo top 10 major it’s cracking stuff mate I’m looking forward to it right should we talk golf this week two good events I tell you what I’m going to do Paul I’m going to throw Barry under the bus I go first every single week I want to I’m going to put you po Paul has done the decent thing this week uh he’s basically saved me from the wolves and he has covered PJ T action he has covered the Myrtle Beach Classic which is the first time we’ve ever seen this tournament on the p GA T it’s an opposite event decent enough field so let’s run through this quickly let’s let’s cover this in sort of 10 15 minutes and then we we’ll move on to the worlds Fargo so Paul over to you the Myrtle Beach Classic yes a very rare for into the PGA tour for me Isn’t it and but yeah with the DP well tour taking a scheduled break it does make sense for me to have a little go look at this and actually it’s been quite an interesting uh exercise to try and I love the look of the course yeah yeah it does look good it’s um yeah I’ll go into it in a second but yeah Robert Trent Jones original that’s had a few different facelifts from ree Jones over the years but yeah um in terms of the basics of the event it is an alternate event so we know that we’ve got the 70 uh well 69 now that lud oberg has uh pulled out of the qu Quail Hollow event um so that yeah those guys all playing over at Quail it’s left a very um second tier but very open looking betting Market I must say uh Ben Griffin is the marginal favorite at the moment 28 to1 Eric Van royan 28 to1 Bo hosler first round leader Barry 33 to one he’s not in Texas though Paul sorry he’s not now does that mean that you carry on though Barry do you carry on with the Bo hosler in Carolina he might just I think I might just post a note him just I’m not I’m not going to linger on this one just I think I just dust them off he’s gone big line yeah one time failure gone see you so Bosa 33s Daniel berer 33s Matt Wallace played well last week 35 to1 Victor Perez Rio huni Andrew Novak Kevin Yu or 40 to1 45 to1 by those players so we got 28 on the field this week which shows you or tells you a story about how open this betting Market is justes give us a bit of scope for picking players um in that kind of mid-range I think if you dig through the book is as ever boil Sports have gone eight places each way a fifth of the Yards you’ve got each way options um eight places and above for both um bet 365 and bet Fred this week do shop about there’s lots of disparity particular particularly at the the top of the market as to who’s the favorite so he might find some quite strong variations from bookie to bookie so do take a good look before he plays your bets now the venue um as Steve mentioned uh it does look good it’s been described as the coastal austa National by ree Jones who has had a hand three times as I say in renovating this over the years and it is a Robert Trent Jones original back from the 1940s 7,347 yards par 71 now it is positioned alongside the Atlantic Coastline but for the most part the holes are Parkland in style it’s a typical Carolina Affair in that respect and uh I know you tend to categorize a lot of Carolina courses in the same bracket Steve and I think it falls into the into the same kind of uh Carolina category as I saw lots of pine straw I saw lots of those hanging trees you know just hang down yeah and very thin Fairways for the length of the course 20 to 25 yards on the landing areas they are they are really tight yeah 20 to 25 yards is the official I mean if you look through the individual holes there’s there is some variation from hole to hole but uh in general it is that um is that kind of style there’s there’s water significantly in in play on six the holes as well um Champion Bermuda greens so um it’s going to appeal to a certain type of player but yeah it’s it does look like a decent uh course and a decent it should be a decent test I think for the players in terms of the weather um we’ve got a breezy day on Thursday uh 15 to 20 mph gusting 25 maybe 30 then there’s a bit of wet weather working through uh Thursday night into Friday afternoon again with some Gusty winds and then it’s a little bit cooler little bit calmer over the weekend too Sunshine temperatures in the mid 70s Fahrenheit over the weekend it will be a bit warmer than that Thursday Friday but yeah I’d expect um the first couple of days to present a little bit of a challenge particularly if it is gusting 25 to30 which looks to be the case now this is the first time that the PJ tour has visited this course so we’ve got no stats to work with um from this week the seniors just played here back in 1996 through 98 so three events they all won at between 9 and 16 under um four rounds for those guys back in the day and that played as a par 72 so now we’ve got a par 71 nowadays I wonder if it’s going to be a similar kind of range that’s how I’ve pitched it this week anyway I I’m I’m kind of um guessing it will be mid uh teens under par maybe 14 15 something like that would be a competitive total this week interesting because these alternate opposite events literally you look at corales and Puerto Rico it’s normally like 22 you see typical pga2 Affair the only thing I thought with this was that if they water the hell out of the course and as we know with the pga2 they don’t mind doing that but when you’ve got a lot of win for the opening two rounds it did feel to me like this is going to be a midore gol tourament yeah I don’t think this is going to be a a HP CJ cup Byron Nelson 24 par job no last week no I think the only um caveat with that is they are expecting quite a bit of rain overnight on Frid or over afternoon and evening on Friday and if that really does soften the course you might find the the weekend is quite a bit easier so yeah could be a bit so maybe High Teens yeah yeah 17s 16 17s 18s is that what we’re probably looking at yeah I think so I think if you’re if you’re shooting straight 67s I think you’re going to give yourself a a chance on Sunday to be in the mix and right okay see where it takes you from there um we got no stats as I say I have looked at three different angles from this and we’ve got Rees Jones designs and Rees ree Jones redesigns as well um there’s a long list of examples in my preview which I’ve handily stolen from one of your previous previews Steve so yeah it did look familiar if you if you weren’t working for golf betting system I think I’d send the uh the email from the solicitors across yeah there there was a little copying and past in there but um the you it’s holy relevant in that respect um some of the more regular visits or or courses that we go to um with ree Jones input are East Lake course for the Tour Championship uh Golf Club of H Houston for the um Houston open Tory Pines um Arona mink in the not so distant pass he’s had his hand in a fair few major venues as well so there’s there’s quite a bit to get your teeth into in terms of re Jones um input um Carolina courses again um I’ve listed a few on the preview qu Hollow which um you know we we we’ll touch on when uh you go through your um piece in a few minutes time Steve for this week’s um other event pin Pinehurst number two Harbor Town has got clear um correlations with this sedgfield coner potentially as well which um played the 2021 palto championship and then the CJ cup it was the year after that’s right that’s Kevin Kisner’s home course yeah yeah some differences there in terms of the style of course a lot more sand at Conger but again in terms of a Carolina course I think you can get some correlation with that so they’re all worth of look as well and I use those to to kind of get a feel as to the type of player may go well here and then we got Champion Bermuda pting surfaces as well um qua Hollow again at Sedgefield again so there’s a couple of um direct correlations with those two courses um sedville where they play the Windam Championship ID TPC Southwind where the St Jude events take place uh Country Club of Jackson serson Farms as well which we see in the fall series each year and then going back a couple of year or a few years back at the barbar so we had the Robert Trent Jones Golf trial Grand National course there um which was Champion Bermuda as well again there’s a few other courses dotted about here and there which uh use that surface so um I’ve thrown all those into my uh analysis this week to try and see which names um correlated best with those um one name that I came up with and I was really Keen just to throw a few quid h y on was Jim Herman um who’s who pops up you laugh Barry can you believe it I I knew it Lord s you know I’ve got a soft you need to get out of this R mate yeah next You’ be me mentioning Ted Potter junr yeah I’ve been Sav because Jim’s not quite in the field yet um oh wow it probably has saved me because I would have undoubtedly have backed him yesterday um what would have been sub of scene but I think I’d have got 500 to one with Jim Herman yesterday in Trump reelection year M I can see Herman popping up and winning big absolutely I spent far too much time yesterday trying to find out if Jim had played a practice round with uh Donald Trump in the in the recent past which has been the uh precursor to a few of his wins over the years and but I thought you went quiet for a couple of hours you were you literally on X I I was searching through yeah every possible combination of Herman and Trump but there was there was no no pictures no evidence wow um but yeah he’s he’s the third alternate at the moment I suspect he gets in the field um because we know how these alter events work and how they tend to um yeah put players dropping like flies in terms of uh their attendance um so should he be offered up at a sensible Sensible should he be offered up at an obscene price um by Thursday I probably that’s guaranteed yeah I probably will have a few quid but sadly he wasn’t in in time for my preview so that’s left me with just four selections this week so I’ve kept it quite tight I think with new courses new events you it’s not one you should really go gungho on but I have packed four and first one that caught my eye was Daniel Burger 33 to one now I must say I was expecting Daniel burer to be favorite this week so when he was first chalked up he was something like eighth or 10th in the betti and um I was surprised at that so yeah snap snap that up and 33 to1 I wouldn’t be surprised if he does get closer and closer to the top of the betting 28 to1 maybe where he goes off but I think there’s still some juice in that at four-time PGA Tour winner former world number 12 I mean he is a Class Act in this alternate field in my view two of those winds came at TPC South Wind uh which I mentioned a moment ago with the champion Bermuda greens the other two were colonial um which is nice and tight off the te uh a bit like this and Pebble Beach which of course is Coastal so maybe a bit of relevance in all four of the wins that he’s got over the years now the reason he’s playing here and not playing at qu Hollow is that he lost a full 19 months of play with that back issue U through the second half of 2022 all of 2023 didn’t play a single tournament last calendar year um dropped from 25th in the world all the way down to 600 so um he’s got to fight his way back now to get into some of these top events but he’s played event so far this season in 2024 and seems to be heading in the right direction best result was last week uh TPC Craig Ranch 13th last week four solid rounds 67 67 67 66 and some good metrics coming out of his game he’s he’s been hitting the ball Prett pretty straight all year actually 12th for aury last year or last week uh third for Gins in regulation first for scrambling now the putter was a little bit cold last week at Craig Ranch but perhaps that will perk up a little bit now that he’s coming back to the champion Bermuda this week so 33 to1 was really quite happy to put him up top um a couple of points each way on Daniel burer for me little bit further down also back Justin lower 40 to one um with the eight Place options out there um 35 years old now so no one on his CV journeyman um category I guess guess you could start to put him into but there have been signs that you might get might might just get that win he’s getting closer I think and that elusive win could be just around the corner third at the Mexico open back in February 4th at the corales championship last month as well so he seems to be quite competitive at these low levels and lots of Sparky rounds this year um just doesn’t tend to put all four rounds together 24th last week at Craig granch four rounds in the 60s and got a little bit of South Carolina form as well he was runner up to Mito Pereira at the thornblade club mitoo back in 20121 so he has got a little bit of local experience and local um form to fall back on as well so 40 to1 for for him um similar price also backed Alex SMY he was 45 to1 with the extra places now small is a North Carolina resident um but he has caught the eye statistically when I dug through his uh performances over the last couple of uh solo outings that he’s had he had seven straight Mis Cuts actually from the Genesis all the way through to the Texas open but seems to have sorted himself out a little bit and much better at the corales uh tied for sixth 82% of fa Fairways and 75% of greens that week so much stronger from uh from ta to Green um and he’s got some previous there as well he kind of takes these alternate events pretty seriously by the look he finished runner up to Chad Ry in the corales back in 2022 so a couple of alternate event bits of form there 13th last week of Craig Ranch um first for Greens in regulation caught the eye top nine for both Strokes gain off the T and strokes g t to Green so the long game’s looking good and um he’s got top 20s in a few of those events that I was looking at qua Hollow Sedgefield Jackson um he’s he’s got top 20s in all of those events and again I think Alex SMY could go well here this week at 45s and finally um bit of a longer price Henrik norlander I backed 100 to one each way eight places that was with uh bet Fred’s eight Place Market that one and uh yeah norlander the swed he popped up a few times in my analysis this week twice a corn Ferry winner H twice a playoff loser at PGA at all level actually um I think he’s got a win in him and potentially quite uh quite soon if he carries on the way that he’s playing most recently um the most recent playoff um was last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship now you remember that one that was when Luke Liss made that uh absolute bomb in the playoff that 45 footer to win the title and uh yeah Ben Griffin was in that Ben Griffin had led the whole way and then he he he didn’t Birdie the last hole and there was a fiveman playoff yeah o Berg was in there as well um oh God norlander it’s crazy is it you look back Berg was in that player indeed um yeah and then L made that absolute bomb to win it in the playoff which you can’t account for that but yeah he’s got a decent record at the uh Country Club of Jackson in general so that’s second place alongside a couple of fourth place finishes as well so fourth fourth second from his last four visits there again that’s Champion Bermuda putting surfaces he was fourth for strokes game putting on those surfaces last year so he likes that particular type of grass by the looks of it um Sunday at Craig Ranch didn’t quite work out but he had shot three straight 68s after prior to that so yeah some decent enough form third into Sunday alongside the aforementioned Luke list at the Zu classic um before they fell away on Sunday so there’s some form there alongside his uh his nemesis from the uh from the Sanders and Farms I think there’s enough to like um at lower level lower levels lower grade events over over this year to to give Henrik norlander a go here particularly with a three figure quote so so yeah here’s my final one aside from of course Jim Herman should he find his way into the field but that may be a late Wednesday afternoon job that one four me yeah could be no just on the Herman thing I noticed you have him in the um the form St section just waiting the field find I’m preempting it he’s he’s he’s going to be in but uh yeah we we’ll keep keep a close eye on that and then watch for the inevitable Miss cut when he does find his way in anyway the four for me Henrik norlander Alex SMY Justin lower Daniel Berger small alternate events buried do interest you there’s a couple of prices kind of caught my eye just for out of Interest so first question is have you fallen out of love with Matt Wallace does he do it two weeks on the tro Barry that’s the thing okay that’s okay that’s asked and answered moving swiftly on can I chip in yeah when he won the corales an alternate event last year he’d finished seventh the outing before at copad Carolina type Golf Course y so he can carry form over Matt Wallace and he was absolutely beasting it off the tea last week which tends to be his go time cuz you as we know his his driving I’m only I’m playing devil’s advocate here by the way his driving can be a huge weakness Matt Wallace you know this Paul you followed the guy for years on the on the European tour so I’m just desperately bringing up his number he was something incredible off the two last week in terms of his driving yeah he was so yeah so top 20 for driving eighth for approach he was first for Te to Green at that Byron Nelson last week could make a p no well and if you look through his pting stats um over a prolonged period of time yeah there’s been a few Sparky weeks here and there but nothing um nothing really really striking or no consistency which um again going back to his DP World Tour days the um you know well I’ve backed him I’ve backed him in these one a fair few times to me over the years um but he’s generally been when he’s putting well um and I don’t know as to how how much pting is going to be important this week it’s a tight C of the te perhaps that’s going to be the more important pertinent Factor than putting who knows but yeah I managed to leave him alone Barry so that’s probably the green light for you to get involved not not not that interested no um just curious if you’ve if Steve’s now picking up the Wallace baton and he’s uh he’s just on a fast track to the posted not of Doom if that’s the case quite possibly I’m tempted yeah he’s temp there we go poor Matt Wallace he’s he’s in trouble um couple I’m going to think I’ll go have a go on um just going to go with form from last week uh tiger semia Kawa yeah so I just need to find what mix of uh ODS and places to catch them but somewhere around 45 40 45 to one y and then did you did Nicholas etaria come across did you come across him in your yeah analysis he was kind of the in in the next tier of players that I um I seriously considered um yeah’s he’s got that win from last year at similar kind of level hasn’t he and uh it’s just been the odd spark of form over the last few weeks to suggest he could go well couldn’t quite get there with him but yeah I wouldn’t put you off that that’s the thing that’s kind of caught me is trying to find or looking into stats a little bit on them they’re kind of Tainted by some poor performances earlier in the year but his last um last few weeks have been some played some nice golf so that was kind of that’s why I popped on my on my radar yeah no certainly wouldn’t put you off and um yeah if I’d have been putting six or seven up I think he would have been part of that uh that team this week that would have been very degenerate six for seven well this is the thing isn’t it you know you could get carried away with this event and um I just s this for about 10 but um yeah do do you really go that deep on an event where there are so many unknowns um probably probably not the most prudent of strategies I don’t think but yes but this is where I’m at Billy hallw won the last one of these alternate events 20 to1 I did mention at the time eight of the last 17 of these have been top 14 in my Strokes gain total rankings now I haven’t got Strokes going total rankings because I haven’t done the piece of work on it because I’ve been flat out on the Byron on the Wells Fargo but I can guarantee you that Daniel burer would be in that top four team so I am backing burer uh 12:1 33:1 20 to1 20 to1 401 25:1 33:1 20:1 those winning prices of eight of the last 17 so I think Daniel berer at 33 to1 is an amazingly good bet should have been favorite I think and yes I can see that on pure class terms he is the favorite but clearly throwing where we’re in in reality lack of form coming back from an injury JY you’ve got Ben Griffin the favorite well I’d take Daniel berer over Ben Griffin 10 out of 10 times y um I think there’s a lot of Merit for Matt Wallace if if we’re going down this route of sub 40 to1 winners I think Wallace and SMY make a lot of sense a te it’s amazing Barry mentioned him I’m also going to tip up Niko ET of area because his numbers have been so so good over the recent weeks um is also a winner of one of these events in Puerto Rico so clearly makes them takes them seriously I am seeing uh some 70 to1 out there in The Ether in fact 80 to one with boil Sports eight places each way I’m trying to log into me account right now the other one I like and we do get a hell of a lot of winners so I think placing some one at triple digits or bigger is really a decent move in these alternate events Bryce garet being a prime example in PTO Rico 150 to1 a few months ago I can go to niiko eia at 150 to1 Trey mullinex 150 to1 Hudson Swafford Brian Gay in 2020 corales and Bermuda a player that you can make logical sense to to say well they’ve done well in wherever you know that kind of tournament in the past and they’re they’re a big price they haven’t really done a lot recently I was surprised to see 125 to1 about Wesley Bryan yeah RBC Heritage winner mhm Carolina guy and was second a few weeks ago in corales was that right y yeah y so I’m going to take Wesley Bryan as well I thought I thought Barry might pick up on Wesley bran cuz I know you’ve got a bit of soft spot for Wesley I yeah I mean at this stage it might just be considered an auto bet he could be he could be my Jim Herman I’d be surprised if you don’t follow me in on Wesley cuz he just from you would never find any stats to back it up but that’s why he’s 125 to1 but the fact that he just came from nowhere the other week to almost win the corales then he of course missed the cut last week at the CJ cup great 125 to1 this week that’s the kind of player that would win this and he’d go oh my God it was so obvious and he’s 125 to1 it so obvious and how non obvious it was yeah yes exactly so yeah exactly right 125 to1 then I’m having Wesley Bryan I’ve got Nico etaria at 80 to1 with Bo Sports and I’m going to take you uh your view on Daniel burer as well Paul I think this course is perfect don’t forget his two first two wins on tour were TPC South Wind absolutely yeah Champion Bermuda grass he can play the surface yeah yeah yeah I know these are overseeded but that’s not an issue he tends to do well on shorter to medium golf courses that aren’t par 72s oh T ticks a lot of boxes yeah nice spark of form last week yeah should we talk about the world’s Fargo Championship let do it so should we I’ll rephrase that should we talk about the Rory maoy championship three-time winner hitter coming off a win with his best mate Shane Lowry 7 to one xand if this is a signature level event I believe Paul quote me if I’m wrong there’s now 69 players after ludvig oberg’s withdrawal is that right that’s the right number yep thank you to the PJ T Rob Bolton etal for actually giving us the information way up front this week so we knew what the field was that was fantastic not like the previous hog has that we had at the can’t remember it was oh was RBC Heritage wasn’t it after the Masters y so a quality field uh it’s a shame that oberg isn’t in the field because I had tipped him up so if you look at my bre breting preview he’s grayed out I think the the golf course was perfect for ludvig obber but he’s got a ankle problem is it or knee problem knee issue yeah yeah doctor says no which clearly isn’t great considering we’ve got a PJ Championship next week uh Rory maroy 7 to1 favorite is a smidgen of 15-2 if you’re keen and want to get him one at Uni Xander 9 to1 that’ll be turning you on Barry Windam Clark at 16 to1 the defending Champion Patrick cantlay at 18 to one and then we are out 22 to1 Max Homer 25 to1 K morawa 28 to1 Cameron young Tommy Fleetwood Victor hovland Justin Thomas 30 to1 bar Quail Hollow golf course it’s a absolute Beauty 167 17 18 the The Green Mile to f finish it’s a beast of a course in terms of its length they’ve extended it again for this year they’ve added another 20 yards just for a bit of punishment 7,558 yards they play uh water hazards in play on seven of the 18 holes this is the number that gets me Acres of Fairway 26 Now 26 Acres of Fairway on a 7 and a half half th000 um go length golf course is not that much and sure enough you look at the numbers it’s 31 yards in terms of Fairway width at 300 yards carry now the thing I will say about this this kind of I mean again another Carolina golf course but this one’s clearly on steroids 75,000 um low hanging trees tree line dog leg City uh lots of ele ation changes so you could draw a lot of comparisons with Augusta it has to be said although the greens here aren’t as anywhere near as difficult and that comes through in a stat that I’m going to come to in a minute Agronomy Bermuda grass overseeded with perennial R for the fairways and the rough we’ve got in fact very very I mean this is these are the same greens that you’ve been dealing with Paul they are champion muta grass overseeded with po trivialist so exactly the same pting Services as at Myrtle the mytle Beach Classic green 6 half th000 Square ft on average which isn’t that large when you’ve got a 7,558 yard golf course and I haven’t even mentioned the best bit it isn’t a par 72 it’s a par 71 so only three par fives it’s the kind of golf course in the past where I actually have tipped up Daniel Berger yeah and that’s purely on an Agronomy basis because this Agronomy is literally as you would get it somewhere like a south wind it’s a very Southeast feel this week a very southeast United States Agronomy temperatures Golf Course the full the full nine yards um high quality field the stats I want to bring you are the really important ones in my view if you look at The Strokes gained numbers of the last four winners here bearing in mind you’ve got a let me try to remember this we’ve got a Max Homer win at TPC pomac which clearly doesn’t get counted and they have they’ve moved this around a few times didn’t they play one Brian Harman one at um uh Eagle Point was it Eagle Point yes but if we take Windam Clark Rory marroy 2021 Max Homer 2019 and Jason Day 2018 Strokes gained off the T 19th Strokes G on approach these are the averages for the winners Strokes G on approach 18th around the green 31st TI green eth Strokes game pting wait for it so Strokes g t green eighth Strokes game pting second so Jason D was second for strokes game putting Max Homer first Rory maroy third Windam Clark first that’s crazy the real number that grabbed me on this was actually when you look at the actual numbers themselves the raw Strokes gain numbers and those splits this reminds me very much of what we saw at memor Memorial Park a few weeks ago for the Houston open where Scotty Sheffer couldn’t get the job done and he was beaten by Stephan Jer because Strokes g t to Green for The Strokes g t to Green Master mastering that wasn’t enough you needed a warm putter to win and he got beat this is exactly the same 2.17 Strokes gain T to Green over the last four years for the winners per round 1.88 on the greens if you want the percentage splits that’s 54% te to green and 46% of Strokes gained were with the pter that is a very very rare statistic on the PGA tour other thing here we want guys with bundles and Oodles of driving distance driving distance all uh drives and distance to Apex HIgh hanging bfly it’s no you know you look at all of this and you see Rory maroy three-time winner here one his first ever PJ to a title here in 2010 it it’s it’s just like the perfect golf course for Rory and because there’s no rough of any length it’s 2 in it’s nothing you can be as flagrant as you want off the tea and just hit it as far as you want to just make sure you miss a couple of um the little water courses that run down a couple of the fairways it is Rory mroy Phil that clearly gives us a because in my mind there’s there were four five players I like the look of this week they were Rory mroy wait for it Barry Xander chaule ludvic oberg Windam Clark and Cameron young and I picked ludig oberg Windam Clark and Cameron young so at the moment as we sit here I’ve only got two t this week I have got Windam Clark the defending champion at 16 to1 uh I think I had him with bet 365 from memory yeah I did on that eight way uh that eight places Market can I say some of the hway terms this week are pretty poor I mean six places and a fifth not great is it not great um so I am going 16 to1 on Windam Clark full eight places each way I’ve got three three points each way if you if I said to you guys if you look at 2024 as a whole who was the second best player on the PJ tour after Scott after Scotty Sheffer who would you answer yeah yeah I think it’s got to be Winden Clark isn’t it meic rise up the world rankings Barry flip a coin I don’t know flip a coin it’s probably Clark yeah one at Pebble Beach second to Scotty Sheffer at Bay Hill second to Scotty Sheffer at the players and was the only real Challenger to Scotty Sheffer and I’m saying that in know there was no one challenging Scotty Sheffer really at the RBC Heritage but at least Clark made a run got within one and I know he’s about nine or 10 holes ahead he knew he knew that he’d literally had to birdie everything on the way home and of course gets the double bogey but everyone else was covered by Sheffer no one was getting close to him Windam was the only one that made a run at it so I just thought when you looked at that betting Market I thought he was fourth or fifth favorite I thought that wasn’t too bad for Windam Clark who is now up to number three in the world is he or something like that yeah and we have seen going way back to well not even way back November 2021 which in go betting terms is isn’t that far back we’ve had players that go winwin when defending holand at 12 to1 Burns at 25 to1 Rory at 11 to1 Klay at 16 to1 Homer at 16 to1 Sheffer at 14 to1 Tom Kim at 14 to1 and this year Players Championship Scotty Sheffer 11 to2 the first man to ever defend the players Windam Clark the way that he is the way that he’s now WI the way that his psychology works his I think him coming out here and defending his first ever PJ to a title would be something that’s really at the Forefront of his mind so I’m on three points each way 16 to1 bet 365 each way extra eight places each way on Windam Clark the other one I managed to snare and I got him at 30 to1 again with bet 365 eight places each way each way extra cam Young if you want a player who who fits the mold of a guy that makes his Maiden pj2 a victory at Quail Hollow and follows the likes of Anthony Kim Rory mroy Ricky Fowler Max Homer I think cam young ticks every single box this week and went to Wake Forest uni just 90 minutes Drive Northeast up the old Interstate 85 so he’s got that North Carolina vibe to him studied here knows knows the state Inside Out played well here when the uh when he played for the President’s Cup team here when they beat the Internationals in 2022 and actually for a terrible and I mean he was absolutely dire with the putter at the players that was the if I look at my eight weeks Trends the players is the very oldest number he would be sitting in the top 25 for strokes game putting over the last eight weeks heading into this tournament across my trackers uh he played really nicely at the Masters um he was gaining three quarters of a stroke per round on The Greens at Augusta National when fitting you know finishing the top 10 a few weeks ago so yeah 30 to1 cam Young and 16 to1 Windom Clark we were talking about this off Mike because Paul said is you know who who would you logically want to add to that Steve and I’m struggling I’m genuinely struggling I mean I’m I’m actually almost weighing up going with Benny AR and you know he’s on the Post-it note of Doom I can’t say I mean you look at Tony fenale for example Tony Fen now’s numbers from te to Green fit this golf course really nicely but he hasn’t puted positively pretty much all season and you’re now asking him to scrap all that and start gaining almost two strokes on the greens each day to win this I just can’t see it anyway that’s me I’m done so I’m going to listen with real interest to you two guys who who you fancy this week Paul yeah well is a it’s a it’s a tough one is it I I I looked through the deeper part of the market and I really struggled to find someone that I was excited about excited enough to back and rather boringly I’ve put literally all of this week’s shekels on Rory mroy um got him at 8 to1 yesterday and I you know I I’ll go back to the same equation that I’ve talked about a number of times 8 to one how many how many times does Rory play this and and win in the state of his game right now and when I say state of the game or state of his game I’m talking how positive how happy um he looked playing alongside Shane lar at the the Zurich Classic and how much of a an injection of confidence and positivity that will give his game moving forwards um working with Butch potentially that’s paying off now um no Scotty this week which I think in terms of a mental positive kind of again injection of positivity and confidence has got to be it’s got to be positive for him um he’s won three times here as we know and if you look at how he performs before major championships yeah he I think he’s he’s constantly striving to find what that right combination is should he go throttled down the week before should he go Pelt and try and get himself into Peak Rory mroy form um I think he’s he’s tried all sorts of stuff but if you go back historically um he can and does win before a uh major championship he won the Scottish before the open last year um he won the Canadian before the US Open the year before and in 2019 as well and then if you go back to valala which was in 2014 where we are next week he won the uh he won akan didn’t he the richstone invitation or the week before I think he won the open and didn’t he then win the WGC I think he won three straight yeah no that’s you’re absolutely right yeah went open um WGC Bridgestone and then one at Valhalla so that’s right yeah so there’s prestent there for him having done that and you know yeah I I get does lightning strike twice and all that but this this is a funny game we’ve been doing doing this and you know observing this for so many years now these kind of micro Trends and these occurrences often repeat themselves I think for me ultimately the the Zurich win could mean that the handbreak is off Rory now and I think we saw a slightly different um approach and um kind of yeah almost a slightly different Rory um emanating from that and if that follows through into this week then I don’t think there’s a better course for Rory to be approaching particularly without the world number one looming over everyone at the top of the leaderboard so yeah just back to make to one and I think that’ll be me I I I couldn’t find anything that I really wanted to back any player that I wanted to back further down the list where there was a juicy enough price when each way should Rory win so I’m sticking with that that’s me I don’t think it’s a bad Ploy I need some help when you when you got eight one on Rory can I just ask what price was Xander can you remember no but he would have been 10 11 Max wouldn’t he um yeah you know there take taking oberg out of the Market’s taken what eight8 10% out of prices in in some cases so you might have found he was a point longer there there was some smidgin of 11 but in the main he was 10 to1 so if you stack it up Rory maroy you got a 8 to1 a three time winner here and 10 to one was Xander yeah I mean where’s the value there yeah yeah yeah there’s only one choice for me in that respect these are all all the these are all the words of a man who has about to put Xander on the post note of Doom it’s it’s it’s going that way it has to um I need a little bit of help just trimming down I have a few players on my short list so look the the Rory stuff makes throw some out there the Rory stuffes let’s have let’s have a conversation over a p down the pub let’s chat this through um okay I’m not sure I don’t know what to think about Max this week like you know he’s shown some good stuff there recently things you know seem to be com coming around nicely 20 to1 maybe maybe not could be interested but the ones I have I’m kind of getting to so people like AE batia sahit tala kind of just group them together the two young Lads um I really wanted if tala’s price was a little bit little bit longer I’d be extremely interested but I’m also trying to remember don’t be price proud just I think this is the kind of place that I could just be his next his next win you take a 501 winner baring I’d love a 50 to One winner on tala I don’t B batia Maybe can I just can I can I throw go the other way just as a as a as a way of throwing you off the scent on tagala potentially go for it incoming form of previous winners of this going all the way back to 20110 l l Lucas Glover miscut 10th 47th 11th 8th miscut 14th 34th miscut miscut 48th 24th igala was second last time out of the RPC Heritage so shortest the shortest Place we’ve had was Rory eighth and he’s also won the world match play and finished fourth Augusta when he won this that particular year I believe he was the nine to2 favorite can can we apart from that you haven’t got anyone apart from Ricky Fowler finishing top 10 the outing before winning this you but hang on a second Steve it looks like talo he um missed the course in the Zurich that that’s going to be devastating yeah oh man yeah okay I I hadn’t thought of that I like your Trend stuff but I also like to ignore them completely don’t blame you tala is not on the fact you’re trying to write him off no he’s not tala is not getting I’m kind of sweet on him this week so I think the price PR thing are going to stick with him there’s Hideki shouldn’t be this long in this field like this course should be a course that Hideki has won on and something doesn’t something just hasn’t worked for him here over the years and I’m curious if you guys have any theories what that is no I looked at his record as well is it’s decidedly indifferent isn’t it and has I think it’s the fact that you’ve got undulating Champion Bermuda grass greens okay and you needing to get close to two strokes gained putting every day to win it that’s not Hideki Matsu arm and you think that’s why he hasn’t played here the last three times either just because it doesn’t match yeah I think there’s something in if you look at these Signature Events there’s something in players that tend to win them are players that would have played the tournaments anyway you with me yeah yeah that makes sense no just I was curious like what you thought about you said that’s I mean that’s great I need a reason to strike him off the list because I can’t back everybody um so that’s gone okay next one how do help me with this one Shane Larry this this is like the Firestone Vibe the recent win like it’s just everything’s there saying yeah could definitely do do it and the pudding is the big question mark at the moment like he’s not a terrible putter he’s just not really good at the moment so um is that the is that the reason to strike him off the list ours record here is not great either best of 24th and five attempts yeah there’s also the same argument with Rory with him isn’t there is you know how much how much posit it does he take out of that that Zurich win possible possible we getting 60 to one there about 50s yeah with extended places yeah yeah 50s with the what extended yeah six places versus five which is hardly uh massive gener yeah so and then I guess I’m kind of tied between all those and then one long shot I’m just going to jump in on Jake knp just has that massive power off the te rough’s not cut that long so see see what happens feels like the kind of course that it could could work out from him odds are odds are nice and long let’s just give it a whirl yeah I can see that I think the other one up there at that price point and I’ve I’ve been mentioning him for a long long time all year in fact he Kurt kitama he’s long enough he’s aggressive enough he’s got a high enough ball fly the trouble with CT is in general Guy cannot P okay I have one last one because I’m still not fully settled but I might you know out matama in with Stefan joerger has new found massive distance knows he can conquer Scotty sheffler Scotty’s not even here this week so this should just be a free run to the win 20th last week as a as a as a sixth here two years ago 27th last year I nobody in his way this year bar you nailed that’s it like I mean they almost they well the other thing he won that tournament where it was the on the golf course where pting was equally as important as tea green at Memorial Park in Houston he won it so yeah 50 to one can I just I mean we got to sign off but can I just throw in there apart from Billy Hall and Scotty Sheffer we still in this weird world on the PJ tour I mean pendrith last week 90 to1 yeah we’ve still got this bizarre situation where nobody between 20 to1 and 50 to1 have won a PGA Tour event this year that’s crazy isn’t it really chefler scrub him off Larry and maoy with 15-2 Billy hell in that alternate event with 20 to1 and then everyone else has been you know 33 to1 40 to1 winners just don’t exist this year it’s 50 to1 and above so you think yourself well actually is Rory going to fill that Gap at 9 at 8 to1 PA manager to get I mean that fits the trend perfectly or you need someone at 50 to1 and above it may be even longer yeah it’s it’s completely the inverse of just logic but that’s what’s happening this year it’s crazy Taylor pendri 90 to1 we’ll same so where did you get to Barry so who are you having let’s just firm that up oh you’re gonna kill me here right now okay my short list is tala Larry baa Jagger and nap ra okay so I’ll have to figure out something between that because I can’t back all five then again I probably can and probably will send out a tweet to say where where you come who you come down on for the listen let’s just assume I’m backing all five because I’m going to struggle to kill knock one of them off the list now that they’re all in my head now bar that’s it I have a very rational and logical betting um system yeah yeah we’re done you wouldn’t want to say all five names would you and then yeah stick with one of them right we’ll be back on Thursday listeners for our PGA Championship Valhalla preview research podcast which we’re looking forward to greatly uh I wish you luck with your bet especially you Paul with the Daniel Burger who we’re sharing money on yeah thanks best of luck boys good luck Boys best of luck Barry are you just as are you actually going to go with Wesley Brian on at Po’s event just be nice to me I’m yeah I I think I will I think I yeah you put cup 50 50 cents each way on him yeah Wy briyan Jake Jake knock double and we’ll retire yeah retirement okay fantastic best of luck to listeners with your bets this week and your DK teams we will be back on Thursday for our PGA Championship research preview [Music] goodbye but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf betting system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast