On today’s show, Ryan looks at the opening lines for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and cautions picks for the team event. Also, he goes over LIV Golf Adelaide and looks back at last year for clues.
hi everybody Welcome to the Press welcome to the start of a new week it is a jam-packed week we’ve got this week today we are going to talk about the zerk classic of New Orleans for a little while and then we are going to talk about the live golf adelade event as well I’m Ryan baling thanks for being here hope you enjoyed last week’s tournament if you were brave enough to play the Exacta of Scotty sheffler winning and then Nelly Corda winning well actually reverse that Nelly won first then Scotty W on a Monday then you did pretty okay otherwise you probably get at best got what 4 to1 5 to1 payoff on Scotty Sheffer and a similar kind of number on Nelly Corda depending on when you bought it so if you did that congratulations hey cool you probably saw that coming you may not have entirely seen it coming though I mean you kind of figured there had to be some kind of mitigating circumstances for Sheffer right that he had just won the Masters was really tired had a lot of obligations probably not a lot of time to prepare and that he may not have been as ready to play as he turned out to be but he’s also one autopilot right now playing some of the best golf you’ve ever seen so how much worse can it be he also won the Masters without his best stuff so maybe that wasn’t that surprising on Nelly ctis side of things to me that kind of felt like that was the obvious outcome it’s a longer golf course she is a better driver of the golf ball she is a longer player she’s extremely confident no one on the LPGA is even sniffing her there’s no one that’s been consistently kind of hanging around her so that was for hers for the takings hopefully he took advantage of of that over the course of the weekend and if not maybe you thought the odds were too short hey that that’s okay too save some ammo we are going to talk about the zerk classic in New Orleans today but I’m going to caution you about about that this week I don’t like betting on this tournament I don’t like betting on it for a number of reasons one you have multiple formats to contend with you’ve got alternate shot and best ball to deal with those are two very different things and you have to then rely on two players it’s hard enough to rely on one player so I would strongly encourage you if you were going to bet on this bet light and take some long shots have some fun with it like like if something comes home cool you did great if it doesn’t come home that is also okay please don’t get yourself wrapped up in trying to bet this week you’ve got other opportunities to bet this week between live between the DP World Tour you’ve got the LPGA Tour in Los Angeles at a somewhat predictable venue you’ve got the champions tour if you feel so compelled and we’ll talk about the Champions Tour on Wednesday we’re going to talk about the LPGA tomorrow there will be no model this week I’m not modeling a a 160 person 80 team tournament that’s just not going to happen so I I would I would not not just not going to do that but I’m happy to show you on our cheat sheet for our members of golf newws net.com how those players those 60 players have done in the last five tournaments played uh even with the team component I don’t think it’s fair to try because some players switch teams some players get different partners some players have played all of them with the same crummy partner it yeah it just no and some of them are in this tournament for different reasons right so you’ve got the Hoards and the fitzpatricks both sets of brothers are playing this week Nicolai has great status the top 50 player in the world he’s only getting better Rasmus doesn’t have quite that status yet he’s a multi-time winner on the DP World Tour but he’s not quite there yet but if they were to win this week rasmith gets status all of a sudden same thing for Matt and Alex Alex Fitzpatrick Alex had a great summer last year got himself onto the DP World Tour and if they win this week Matt and Alex then Alex gets full PJ tour status that’s absolutely something worth playing for but the motivations are different versus Patrick hlay and xandre shley have won this event they have nothing to lose they’re just doing it cuz they like hanging out with one another and that that’s kind of it you know that that’s it so it’s a chance for them to hang out you’ve got Kum morawa who plays this event because he he seems to like it but I don’t know I just I’m not he had Max hom last year and that was cool now he’s with kurk kyama so in trying to analyze who did what in a one game scenario iio of them playing together then do you assign him a value and C kyama mystery value it’s really hard to do it’s really hard to assess this tor it so you can try it by feel you probably will fail I will probably fail but let’s talk about it a little bit and we’ll talk about it for just a few minutes here then we won’t talk about it anymore you can place your bets in whatever you want and you can move on with life so just keep that in mind when we’re thinking about this tournament this week so that all said let’s look at draft odds for this week it’s probably going to be a light betting week and you’re not going to see a lot of action so if you decide and you’re probably not going to see a lot of lines either it’s not like you’re going to see like top 10 top 20 top five lines I mean they might come out with those but right now the market is just teams outright which means you don’t really get a whole you don’t even get much props here um I I don’t even know if you’re going to get matchups there’s not a lot to work with here which is why we’re again we’re not spending a whole lot of time with this but top of the table 9-2 can’t shle at 71 is Rory mroy and Shane Lowry I think it’s an interesting team worthwhile to potentially bet if you’re going to bet somebody I would go down to Will zures and sah theala at 10 to one I do kind of like Kum morawa and Kurt kyama at 16 to1 both of those guys are kind of the arc type of player that has won here when this was an individual event really good ball Strikers that maybe aren’t necessarily the best Putters and you don’t have to be all that long of a player think like Brian Stewart Jason Duff er um Bubble Watson to a degree even though he was long th those guys really like this place Steve Stricker really liked this place but he was an incredible Putter and he’s playing this week so 16 to1 I think is worth it if you believe in the notion of proper motivation to play this week the Hoy guards are right in there they’re they’re your first team 22 to1 Tom hogi and Maverick mcney MAV shown some close calls in the last couple months had a great run at the Players Tom hogi had a really rough finish to his RBC Heritage I think he made a nine at the final hole made a mess of the 18th hole so maybe he’s got something to play for but he has been playing well overall so 25 to1 is worth a look fitzpatricks are at 25 to1 two teams Canada this week the first is Taylor pendrith and Cory Connor at 28 to1 I am intrigued by that because pendrith just hits the hell out of the ball had a good finish last week in pu takana in the Dominican Republic and Corey Connors is just a great ball Striker neither of them though are very good Putters and you need some someone to make some putts in alternate shot I am not convinced either of them can do that so that’s why I think 28 to one’s a little high but if if you were so compelled by team Canada that would be it uh you’re 40 to1 you have a bunch of 40 to ones Taylor Montgomery and Ben Griffin that’s I mean if you’re thinking about anything there that’s the opposite of pendrith Connor you’ve got a great putter in Taylor Montgomery who doesn’t do a whole lot of else Ben Griffin’s got a good short game and a pretty good ball Striker so you’re kind of the opposite realm of of that sep straa and Bryce Garnett I don’t even know how that team got together I mean I assume they’re friends obviously they just get paired up randomly but I I would not trust that at 40 to1 the other team Canada is Nick Taylor and Adam hadwin they are 40 to1 Keith Mitchell and Joel Damon at 40 to1 conceptually I would like but I don’t love because Keith Mitchell just lost his caddy to aay Bia Joel Damon’s kind of in this state of flux I would rather go down the board if you’re going to go trust somebody 45 to one interestingly enough DraftKings has straa Garnett at 40 to1 and Garnett draa at 40 to1 so you might want to pull that off the board it looks silly Tom dietry and Bob McIntyre 45 to1 kind of like that but I’m not not in love with that Doug gim and Chan Kim 45 to1 I do kind of like that Team Chan Kim and is playing really good golf I think at the moment Doug is extremely streaky but does seem to like the tpcs could work in their favor Davis Thompson and Andrew Novak are 45 to1 Victor Perez and Daniel Burger which does feel like a pretty random team 45 to1 Kevin Yu and CT pan are 50 to1 I do like this Duo Billy horel and Tyson Alexander 50 to1 Billy Ho just won in Putin Tana good for him Tyson Alexander has been playing better golf I can get behind that a 50 to1 and then we’ll start digging down a little bit bit more torbar olison and Matt Wallace at 65 to1 I think is worth a consideration Maybe Taylor Moore and Matt neith n Smith has done pretty well in this event before Taylor Moore has been playing good golf 65 to one I can go with Ryan Fox and Garrick higo or 65 to1 which I think is a really interesting team because they are just going to get out there and hit the hell out of it and see if it works and that could work very well in the better ball format I’m not sure how well they’ll coexist in the alternate shot but they are kind of the same guy Ryan Fox is much more refined but I think they’re a similar guy so that might kind of work then I did mention Steve Stricker is playing he’s playing with Matt coocher 80 to1 I don’t think they’re going to get there if you could have a top five bet i’ consider that but I I would I would not pick them to win and then you start to kind of get these teams where there’s clear abilities clear issues the era of Ryan Palmer getting like the best player available because he asks first are over he’s with Zack Johnson they’re 100 to1 absolutely not Alex SMY and Matty Schmid are kind of interesting because I like Matty Schmid 100 to1 could be worth it here’s one that if you really want to take a random chance I think it’s worth a look at least Tristan Lawrence and aldri poger they’re South African guys um aldri has already won on the corn fairy tour this year he’s in great shape to get to the PGA Tour Tristan Lawrence doesn’t really have much going for him but maybe having a partner here could be a great opportunity for him I do kind of like that team just just you never know what four rounds can do just think about last year having Davis Riley um you know be a winner here and go and do it with Nick Hardy and those guys were having a horrible year and all of a sudden they’re winners on the PGA tour so keep that in mind then you could have you could have that result I’m trying to think of some a little bit deeper teams that might be worth a look maybe maybe Zach Blair and Patrick Fishburn fishburn’s playing really well on the corn fairy tour maybe Jimmy Stanger and Adrien Deonte chart Dante chassard is playing better against weaker competition and Jimmy Stanger is making really good use of his opportunities to play the PGA Tour I can I could sort of get behind that a little bit I don’t want you to bet on this but one of my favorite teams in the field is Alejandro toy and Ted Potter Jr they seem like two PS in a perfect pod together and I think it could be really fun to just watch them play golf I I love watching Alejandro toasty play golf he is just he’s so entertaining it’s not from a betting perspective just I like watching him play golf so again the odds are really stacked against like a 200 300 to one team winning it’s just they’re it’s different when you have to rely on another golfer an alternate shot kind of takes some of the unlikeliness out of it but if you’re going to do it you might as well have some fun with it I mean take like oneth unit bets if that maybe 12th unit bets if it makes you feel comfortable and just have a sweat and at worse you lose $10 or $50 depending on the size of your unit whatever that is and you go from there but please do not bet a lot of money on this this is just not worth your time I would rather you go look at PGA Championship odds which we can do for a couple of seconds and put some money there put some money to work there because we are you know a month away from that tournament I would much rather you do that if you’re looking at PGA Championship on Scotty sheffler is 7 to2 right now to win which implies a 22.22% chance of winning with a theoretical hold of something like six 6 to 7% that feels a lot more likely now would you bet him to win if this is the tournament he comes back to we don’t know if he’s coming back here or if he’s coming back Wells Fargo the week prior would Wells Fargo be a warm-up tournament to get ready for this one at Valhalla also worth noting the last two times they played the PGA Championship at Valhalla the world number one W once it was Rory mroy going back to back back in majors in 2014 time before that was Tiger Woods taken down Bob man so if you think that trend line will continue and there’s no reason to believe it’s even a trend line that matters then you would pick sheffler but three and a half to one just doesn’t feel right mroy 9 to1 ROMs 10 to1 kka 16 to1 I can get behind kka because it feels like the PGA setup just jibes with his game very well but I would go straight to ludig Oar at 18 to1 and that would be my first first play it’s a longer golf course I like wendam Clark he had a weird weekend but had some good results in there so 25 to1 I think is worth a look for him Bryson at 25 to1 I think it’s worth a look played well in the PJ championship last year in a tougher setup play well in the Masters to start the year this year I do like that play Max hom 30 to1 is starting to figure this thing out in the majors all of a sudden goes from no top 10s to a top 10 and getting real close to the Masters I like that play quite a bit uh maybe TL Hatton is he is I I liked what I saw from him at times at the Masters maybe you want to see what he does at live golf event this week maybe Cameron young at 40 to1 it’s hard to bet him to win right Mimi at 50 to1 is worth a a look I think maybe aah thala at 8 to1 I think is long enough to consider that that’s probably where I would stop it for now if you want to look super down the board at someone that just kind of Po pops out at you I do like Ryan Fox’s game a lot 130 to1 if you want to put $10 on that an unlikely result of things kind of deal after that no there’s nothing it’s like oh yeah you you have may I mean maybe a Denny McCarthy it Valhalla is a Nicholas he plays Nicholas uh at home he he could he could do very well on that golf course it’s not as tight it’s kind of like the Valero Texas open where his driving is not a huge penalty that could be intriguing to me but I would be very interested in looking at Billy horel at 200 to one he’s the last shot on the board there and now that he’s in for sure and we we know all that good stuff 200 to one I think is it’s worth like five bucks and it might just blow up in your face right away but he’s playing some very very good golf all right let’s talk live golf Adelaide they’re playing the gra Golf Club once again this is a Full Slate offering this was by far Liv’s most popular tournament last year I mean it’s not it wasn’t even close best attended most noisy most notable I think Chase Kea had the hole in one on like the beer hole and that scene was crazy it was of all the tournaments they opponent by far the best one I I don’t even think it was all that close so I think they’re trying to recreate that Spirit here this week if you look at the outright market for this tournament you get the sense that the odds makers think John ROM is weak he’s 7 1 12 to1 15 to2 plus 750 whatever way you want to read it but Bryson is right there at 8 to1 and this will be the first time we’ve seen Bryson since the Masters and kind of Fallen by the wayside steadily throughout the course of the weekend but he did have a good week at the Masters and I think this golf course does suit his game extremely well I wonder if Taylor G is proper ly motivated and I believe that he is to win here again he was winning in a he won in a route last year he’s 11 to1 here to repeat for as much as is easy easy to make fun of him for you talking about him need to be in the majors and putting an asteris going to Master title blah blah blah blah blah which no one actually believes I’m not even sure Taylor believes that but he may have internalized the sense that hey I got screwed not being in this tournament I believe I should be in the Masters next year and I’m going to do everything I can to prove it that starts now this is his first opportunity but a place he really clearly likes 11 to1 worth it Dean berm is 16 to1 and I think this should tell you the difference between the PGA Tour and live Dean burm has really done something with himself on this tour it’s it’s very interesting to watch and to then win the the Dural event you know you know take down Sergio Garcia Sergio is 28 to1 I think is worth a bet Dean berm has really done something with himself on this tour to suddenly be one of the he is the seventh favorite on the board for the week that’s insane like if he were playing the RBC Heritage he’d be like 70 to1 and that’s not to say because one tour so much deeper than the other I mean there are differences but the way he has found a game here on this tour and then let it carry over back to the DP World Tour has been impressive if you look at the results from last year burer played well here t7 Taylor G won by three in the end because he shot 73 in the final round after 262s honor Bon leiri was he got better every round finished in second Patrick Reed was T3 here I think he is worth a look Peter Uline I believe is also worth a look so Reed is 25 to1 uh Peter Uline is 45 to one just played pretty well on the Asian tour in the Saudi Open John Catlin is kicking ass on that tour and he won in a Runway but Peter Uline did play well in that event 45 to1 I think is worth look David pu puj is 50 to one he’s been playing pretty well also in these Asian tour events I think is worth a consideration leir’s 65 to1 I know he just kind of pops up out of nowhere but I do like his game and I think it will probably match this venue pretty well I talked about Bryson Bryson was not playing well last year he opens 73 then 6569 finished t26 it’s kind of hard to draw from playing one venue one time but that is worth noting I suppose cam Smith maybe because he he is probably pretty motivated to play this week he has not played particularly well this year so maybe there’s something to that uh I think that probably is it that that would probably be the the most comfortable I would be betting those kind of guys I mean I think at some point John ROM’s got to win in this league he just plays too well not to so maybe he just comes out here and destroys everybody and then Dustin Johnson was embarrassingly bad at the Masters I mean seemed underprepared just didn’t have it after he said he was recommitting himself to his game this year so maybe that embarrassment will properly motivate him to play this week and a 22 to1 I think is worth a at least a a look for the week all right that’s going to do it for us today on the show thanks so much for spending some time with me tomorrow like I said we’ll go over the lpj event which is the JM Eagle La championship at Willshire Country Club one of my favorite courses any tour plays all year it’s one of the class you know the big five clubs in Los Angeles it’s one of the ones I most would like to play someday so we’ll talk about that a little bit and we’ll see if we get all the market for the other events of the week whether we get a market for the veritex bank Championship on the Corin fairy tour whether we get something for the Mitsubishi Electric classic in Georgia on the Champions one way or another if we don’t get those then we’ll we’ll do DP World Tour which they’re in Japan this week the isps hand a dash champ ionship which is very strange name for a tournament but there you go so there’s that um we will get through all the events this week as best we can like I said without a model we’ll just have proper amount of time to talk about each and no more than that we we’re not going to just drag it out if you are interested in joining golf Newsnet join me for $40 a year at golfnet.com go to the join button click on that go through the process easy to sign up you can sign up for $10 for the first week and that’s $30 after that uh for the remainder of the payment after the 7 Days actually had somebody sign up for literally the week of the Masters and then cancel which I was kind of surprised someone actually did that but hey here we are I would not advise you to do that but up to you we’ll be back tomorrow with another show thanks for listening get a hold of me Ryan atth golfnet.com Twitter threadx Instagram Blue Sky Ryan baly Facebook YouTube at Ryan baly Golf and golf news Nets on every one of those services at the handle golf newset we will talk to you tomorrow on the Press
