Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:26 – bet365 Promo
01:21 – Patrick Cantlay
02:38 – Sahith Theegala
04:50 – Justin Thomas
07:08 – Tony Finau
08:29 – Max Homa
09:35 – Viktor Hovland
10:48 – Akshay Bhatia
11:50 – Sam Burns
13:10 – Adam Scott
13:56 – Corey Conners
15:01 – Chris Kirk
15:48 – Stephan Jaeger
17:00 – Rory McIlroy
19:21 – Matt Fitzpatrick
20:14 – Matthieu Pavon
21:32 – bet365 Promo
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welcome to links and locks action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy lack and I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sor for these Best Bets episodes Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the Welles Fargo championship before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boo specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply okay Tony we’re on the first te here for our Wills Fargo Best Bets get us started all right so I’m gonna head to the outright winners market right away and go after Patrick hlay at 20 to1 um full disclaimer every odds I put out say was all taken before ludvig’s withdrawal it is what it is I would still probably play all these guys at whatever the adjusted odds are going to be but anyways I got him at 20 to1 and I just think that number is too long in a 69 man field that does not include Scotty Sheffer and now it does not include ludvig either despite not winning recently Klay is still proving his ability to maneuver around highlevel golf courses he has now gained true total Strokes in 12 of his past 13 events of which shotlink datato is available can L both four top five finishes over that stretch including a recent top or third place finish at the RBC Heritage so and we know we know qualla right it’s a big hitters course which benefits Klay as he has gained distance off the te against the field in 32 of his past 33 tournaments where a shotlink data is available the ball striking is there the distance is there finished 21st here last year so the at least some solid course experiences there again it’s just it’s kind of a Buy Low in my opinion on like in a in a chef in a chef lless field can’t lay at 20 to1 seems like a really good number at Target I like that one a lot I’m going to stick in the outright market and go with sahit the gala 28 to1 enhance that is still widely available I believe post ludvig withdrawal and I just feel like this is the natural next progression in seah the gala’s career is to win a signature event he has developed into one of the better long iron players in this entire field he has turned his driver from a weakness into a strength and Quail Hollow is a golf course with a very low Miss Fairway penalty that has been kind to longer drivers of the ball such as Rory maroy Jason day Justin Thomas wendam Clark that are a lot more long than they are accurate sahit theala his biggest weakness at times has been his inaccuracy off the te I think you can get away with that a little bit here at Quail Hollow with the negligible Bermuda rough I’m going to roll with sahit theala 28 to1 enhan on bet 365 to pick up his second career PGA Tour Victory I have a feeling this is gonna happen a lot or happen often in this podcast because usually you and I are kind of on the same page in handicapping and qua Hollow is a it’s been the same handicap there for the past 20 years so I’m also on SE theala um just in the first round leader Market though at 35 to1 at just 26 years old dalala continues to prove he’s one of the next generation you know Superstars he boasts five top 10 finishes over his 11 individual tournaments this year gaining total true Strokes in nine of those 11 he’s gained distance over the field in 10 of those 11 and like you said he can hit it long and he’s going to uh get away with inaccuracy at Quail Hollow um but he can also scramble when needed given that he ranks 47th on tour in scrambling percentage so even if he’s in tough situations I trust his ability to get up and down um he made his tournament uh debut here last season and he finished 56 which I think is why his numbers in the Betty Market a little long but that was his first appearance here course history has usually been a pretty good indicator of success here and now that he’s got four rounds under his belt I think he can improve upon that especially with his recent form so like you I like the gal this week I’m targeting him in the first round leader Market at 35 to1 I’m gonna stay in the outright Market in that same tier of the outright market and go with just Thomas 30 to1 enhanced on bet 365 we bought low on him a couple weeks ago at the Heritage and he delivered a top five finish for us where he gained Strokes in all four major categories what was most encouraging about JT’s performance at the heritage is that the putter came back uh we saw his Strokes gain putting improve in all four rounds and at the end of the week he finished gaining over a stroke putting actually one of his best putting performances of the entire season we also know that this is a golf course that Justin Thomas has a lot of strong history at he won the PGA Championship here in 2017 he also has another top 15 at the Wells Fargo as well as another top 10 the top 15 came last year when he was not at even in as strong form as he’s starting to come into right now so coming off the The Heritage performance where he gained Strokes in all four major categories particularly seeing that improvement with the putter uh particularly now traveling to a golf course where he has such good memories at uh I think it’s time to get for Justin Thomas to uh to get off the the schneide in terms of uh the PGA Tour uh getting his next PGA Tour uh tour Victory after what’s been a I believe a two-year layoff since it’s last yeah it has been and I called my shot because my next play was also Justin Thomas outright winner um you mentioned pretty much mosa is goingon to hit uh he won a PJ Championship here in 2017 that’s that’s going to make his confidence so high entering this week um yeah we’re going to see a similar or a high ranked field um like we do in Majors this week but again no skotty sheffler so that just might makes me like JT even more um like you said the putters bounce back sorry I’m just trying not to reiterate everything you just said he boasts eight top 12 finishes over his past 12 tournaments so he’s in that’s a pretty dominant Trend like he’s he’s there he just hasn’t you know gotten over the hump we’ve been I know both of us been on JT a lot since we started doing this together and I truly think he will get over that hump and get back to the winner circle and again with him winning the 20 2017 PGA Championship here this could definitely be a venue where he gets it done I’m going to stick uh in the outright Market as well one final outright pick and I’m going to go with Tony fow 35 to one I just love this golf course for Tony F now he has actually had a very quietly strong ball striking season um he’s put together some really strong ball striking performances this year he’s driving the ball great his long iron play has been spectacular acular um and if you look at the golf courses where fenal has had his best success this season Tory Pines Memorial Park those are two golf courses that are very driver heavy um particularly in the case of Memorial Park features uh very similar Agronomy uh and a very low missed Fairway penalty some very negligible Bermuda rough just like we are going to see this week at Quail Hall I think you want to Target Tony fow on these longer golf courses with a low Miss way penalty where he can go bombs away off the te and rely in the strength of his long irons um which has always been the best part of his game so I’m going to go with Tony Fen now 35 to1 to win the Wells Fargo I think it’s just a tremendous Golf Course fit um and we’ve seen him play a lot better this season than I think his results would suggest absolutely I would agree with that and I’m going to stick in the outright as well and go back up in the shorter odds for a second and after Max home at 25 to1 I I’m looked I think a lot of people are going to be on him this week he won here in 2019 he’s a big hitter he’s gained distance on over the field in 23 of his past 24 tournaments at the same time he’s a tremendous ball Striker who can scramble when needed ranking 27th on tour in scrambling percentage so there’s just so many ways he can get away with a bad shot and he doesn’t hit many of them to begin with so and so it makes sense he profile so well for this course uh for housekeeping purposes he did win this tournament in 2022 as as well but that was uh I believe it was in Maryland that year because the President’s Cup was being held at uh Quail Hollow so I I just know it wasn’t at Quail Hall that year I’m pretty sure is that in Maryland and then so I mean he just profiles well for this course he’s W here before so he’s going to come in with confidence and at 25 to1 again no Sheffer no l viig so I like H at that number I love that one as well always a big fan of H on golf courses like this he’s all he’s obviously proved his success at Quail Hall in the past uh I’m going to take us into the top 10 market and take a little flyer on a by low candidate in Victor hland uh I’m playing Victor hland plus 260 to finish top 10 I don’t know if I trust him to win this golf tournament coming off a prolonged absence we have not seen him since he missed the cut at the Players this is purely a by low spot on a guy that we were talking about as the best player in the world just a couple of months ago if I was building a golf course for Victor hin skill set when he’s on it would look a lot like qua Hollow he is a great driver of the ball he’s a great long iron player he also has a third uh previously at Quail Hall in the past um I think he’s G I think he’s revving up and ready to go for Valhalla next week which is another incredible course fit for him I think we start to see some serious Signs of Life for havland um like I said I don’t really know if I love him in the outright Market but I think that this is a a very solid bounceback performance for havin before uh before we get all excited about him for the pgga absolutely yeah that it’s so funny because like if that if this tournament was four months ago that number would be nowhere near what you’re getting at this week um but I’m gonna go back to the outright winners Market one last time and I’m gonna go after axe batia who can be found at 50 to one he’s just this is one of my favorite young players on tour he now boasts two wins at just 22 years old uh just heing won at the Valero Texas open last month um he’s now made the weekend in five consecutive tournaments including that win but three other top 18 finishes as well the only question I have about him and his course fit this week is his distance off the te he’s shown it but he’s not consistently you know been a big I mean he’s obviously not a very big guy but he’s still gained distance over the field in 12 his past 17 tournaments but the reason why I like him the most this week is even if his driver holds him back I trust his ability to scramble as he gets closer to the greens and he ranks 31st on ear season in scrambling percentage and we have seen guys here win um with scrambling despite you know not pounding the hell out of the golf ball so at 50 to1 I just like a guy who’s definely on the upswing still such a young golfer but super high ceiling with batia at 50 to one I’m gonna go with another bwell candidate a guy that has been a proven winner on the PGA tour one of the best players on the PGA tour when he’s on who hasn’t shown as much form as lately but I think that changes this week I’m going to go with Sam Burns plus 375 to finish in the top 10 I just think he’s too good of a player to stay down for this long I also for what it’s worth like the outright number on him a lot I believe he can be found as high as 50 to1 this week that is crazy to me anytime you see a player of Sam Burns’s caliber that has won so many times on the PGA tour has performed so well on Bermuda grass he’s won twice at the Sanderson Farms that’s another long golf course with Champion Bermuda grass greens right so uh where you can actually kind of spray it off the tea as well and you have to get really hot uh with the flat stick so you know I love the top 10 bat I even consider it a top five and an outright because the range of outcomes is so wide with Burns you know he doesn’t have that consistency as some of the other best players on the PGA tour but he does have the upside uh and it seems like you know he’s either going to finish bottom 10 in this field or top 10 in this field so at plus 37 in a 69 man field I’m going to buy on the talent and what I believe is a really good course fit in Sam Burns yeah I love that play a lot and then I’m gonna go into the top 10 market and go after Adam Scott who’s plus 450 Scott hasn’t been winning events but he’s been competing and is capable of scoring well him on this field he has gained true total Strokes in eight of his past nine tour events finishing inside the top 10 twice so he’s shown that he can do it Scott’s been bombing it off the te getting distance on the field in each of his his past seven tournaments with that said he can also scramble well when needed and given that he ranks above the T average in that category as well therefore it’s not surprising as Scott last year finished fifth he’s got multiple top 10 finishes at Quail Hollow so at plus 450 he just did it last year I think he’s in Better form now than he was when he entered this tournament last year so I think there are definitely worse plays to make than Scott top 10 at plus 450 I like that one a lot I’m going to go back to the top 20 market and uh roll with Cory Connor plus 150 uh Cory Connors has been a great top 20 top 30 Bad All Season I like him in the top 20 Market because this is a field of only 69 players I just look at the iron play with Connor and I think he is had has such a high floor which he’s shown this season uh making every single cut on the PGA tour this year that’s largely because of his driving and approach ability uh he’s played well at Quail Hollow here in the pass finishing top 15 in his last appearance um I just love the way that he’s striking the ball uh he’s played here at the president’s come before as well in 2022 uh and I don’t think it’s just I don’t think it’s a very big ask for a guy that is in this strong ball striking form so I’m going to go with Corey Connor’s top 20 plus 150 yeah I always love taking him in the finishing position Mark he kind of like like hogi this year or Kevin Yu last year just so good with that iron play so you kind of know at least what you’re going to get um I’m going to go to the top 10 Market one last time and go after Chris Kirk who is five to one Kirk is seemingly always a bit undervalued in the betting Market especially for a guy with seven wins on tour um but I mean this is a guy that just finished top 10 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago and a Sim similar result could be in store when you consider that he has gained distance off the te over the field in four of his past six tournaments he has also bought the tour average in scrambling percentage so there will be bailout opportunities if he starts to have some trouble with that length or with the length of the course excuse me and that just I mean five to one for a top 10 finish of a guy who has win pro or definitely case could be made from winning this tournament at 5 to1 to finish top 10 at 69 man field I really like Chris Kirk this week top 10 I’m going to take us back to the top 20 Market in the plus 150 Zone as well and roll with Stephan joerger a player that has been incredibly kind to me all season I mentioned the driver heavy Bermuda long iron nature of a golf course like Memorial Park obviously Stephan joerger was our winner this year at Memorial Park his other best finishes of the season have come on driver heavy golf courses Long iron golf courses like Tory Pines like Vidant viarta you just simply play Stephan jger on these longer driver heavy long iron intensive golf courses his skill set being one of the longest drivers of the the ball in the field being one of the best long iron players in the field anytime you get a golf course above 7,400 yards I’m telling you just blindly plug in Stephan jger you will not be disappointed he cashed a top 20 for us last week at the Byron Nelson um I think top 20 plus odds a player of this caliber on this strong of a course fit is one of my favorite plays on the board absolutely and I’m going to I know I talked about theala in the first round leader Market earlier but I’m going to go back to that market as always I’m waiting to actually lock in these first round leader plays till tea times are announced so keep an eye out for my first round leader article here this week at the Action Network but with that say as long as these guys like aren’t on the last groups out these are likely the three I’m going to be taking I already started with theala now I’m going to go with Rory maoy at 16 to1 obviously the chalki play you can make but this is it’s not his quote unquote home course but the way he’s performed here it might as well should be um this is a way to movies to full ter number from 7 to1 to 16 to1 yes there’s more volatility in the first round which is why the numbers increased like that but he can win any round here and I like this number at 16 to1 Rory’s a three-time winner of this event this domination at qua Hollow makes sense giving that it is a bombers course and Rory is the best driver of the golf ball on tour any concerns of Roy’s recent form is now at least partly nullified with his recent win at the zge classic of New Orleans yes team event but he’s also gained true total Strokes in each of his past seven solo tournaments with shot link data um so we should not be shocked if mroy carries he’s kind of got the monkey office back with the win yes it was a team event but it’s still a win on tour so I could absolutely see him carrying that momentum into Thursday at a venue that is very very familiar for the three-time winner love that play I did the exact same thing uh I had a feeling we’d like I said like you said earlier in the podcast be on some of the same ones and uh I just love betting Rory mroy first round later on golf courses that he loves uh if you just go back over the last 50 rounds Rory mroy has been the number one player in this entire field in Strokes gained in the first round uh he typically gets off to a very hot start particularly on golf courses like Quail Hall that he loves and he’ll usually fade sometimes over the weekend so I cannot understand for the life of me while his why his first round leader odds are always double his outright odds that feels almost backwards to me uh you mentioned it he’s one three times before at Quail Hollow he’s coming off a victory at the team classic I know that it was a team win but it was almost more impressive because he was putting Shane Lowry on his back for most of it uh so good for good to see Rory see the ball go through the hoop again I expect him to get off to an incredibly hot start as well at qua Hollow yeah I AB I obviously absolutely agree um I’m gonna stick in the first round leader Market one last time and I’m going to go after Matt Fitzpatrick who is 35 to1 via bet 365 he enters this week in good form he five straight weekend appearances boasting three top 11 finishes over that stretch four of the only four of those five tournaments have shot link data but he has gained true total Strokes in all four of those events and the one event where there wasn’t data he finished 11th so I imagine he also gained true Strokes at that event as well um he finished 35th here last year but that was his first career appearance in this tournament he’s now got four rounds under his belt and again so with the recent form and now he’s got experience I could see him coming out hot on Thursday especially at number at 35 to1 which just seems a little long on a golfer with Matt Fitzpatrick ceiling love that play I’m a I’m a huge fan of Fitzpatrick this week he actually just missed my betting card so I’m glad that you brought him up I’m gonna finish off us off with a bit of a longer shot top 20 play and go with Matthew Pavone plus 230 to finish in the top 20 uh we have seen Pavone perform at these longer golf courses very well I I’ve mentioned Tory Pines in terms of the similar nature of that Golf Course being so driver heavy and long iron heavy Pavone obviously won that event he also finished top 12 of the Masters uh which is another golf course with a a lower Miss Fairway penalty pretty wide open off the te where players will have to rely on the strength of their middle to Long irons and that’s what Pavone does best um Pavone has developed into one of the best overall approach players on the PGA tour this season that’s why he’s been able to top five and win two Signature Events finish top 12 as a debutant at the Masters I think plus 230 is a pretty juicy number for Pavone to just finish in the top 20 uh in a 70 man field I I I don’t think he is one of the worst players in this field like like he is priced and uh I’m actually expecting a strong performance out of him on what I believe to be a pretty solid horse fit and that will do it for our Best Bets episode for the Wells Fargo championship before we get out of here a final reminder that the winks and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our action experts Spencer agar and Nick Brett wish return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow for the Wells Fargo betting preview right here on the links and luck podcast so for Tony Sartor I’m your host Andy lack and we’ll see you back here next week on the links and lucks podcast presented by bet 365
