Alex Blickle and Justin Bates are back to breakdown the betting slate for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at Craig Ranch. They have long-shot PGA Picks, Best Bets, DFS picks, sleepers and more…Check out all their CJ CUP picks on this episode of Pro vs Pro.
#cjcup #byronnelson #craigranch #golfbets #golfdfs #FantasyGolf #pgatour #zalatoris #jasonday #spieth
Timecodes
0:00 CJ Cup Preview
5:05 Best Bets
14:25 Course Fits
20:29 One and Done
PGA Betting Model: https://ftnfantasy.com/pga-betting-model
PGA Ownership: https://ftnfantasy.com/dfs/pga/ownership-projections/
PGA Bet Tracker: https://ftnfantasy.com/bets/pga/bet-tracker
Course Fit: https://ftnfantasy.com/pga/course-fit-model
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what’s going on everybody welcome back to propro last week we just talked major championship Futures this week we’ve got an actual golf tournament to talk about again really fun week ahead this was our best week of the entire season a year ago hopefully we can duplicate that success Justin do you have a a this year’s Austin ecro pick ready to go this week uh I hope so I got a couple in mind that I like that are probably a little bit more long shot than ekro was last year even though he kind of came off out of nowhere just so everybody knows this is I’ve probably played this course a hundred times at least uh it’s where I practiced a lot when I had Canadian tour status uh because back then it was still a TPC course so we got to practice for free out there so I definitely know it well um I hate it I think it’s the like a bottom five course in DFW uh I don’t know why they play it but um I get it I understand I think that’s what it was built for but yeah it should be a a funish week if you like watching a lot of rain delays and and and wide openen golf course that like it all it matters is how far you hit your ball in the air because that’s what it is and there’s guys there’s guys that I bet somebody doesn’t make a bogey this week interesting yeah I it’s it’s cool that from your own experience you can kind of predict what the course fit model is going to say you mentioned it’s all about how far you can hit the ball in the air well driving distance happens to have a 40 40% emphasis greater than usual this week so 40% boost on driving distance 60% boost around the green so maybe you can tell us a little bit about why you think the challenge around the green maybe it’s just of course uh management type signal but something here is is letting stroke G around the green have a a much larger emphasis than usual and maybe that’s even like you mentioned maybe not the most difficult course so maybe it’s about you have to get up and down to make Bur and some of the shorter par fours some of the par fives yeah so I mean all the par fives though I would imagine be able to hit it around the green and two or on the green and then we’re going to get you get very soft bent grass greens um with all the rain they’re just not going to be able to do anything about that also there’s a lot so here is a ton of runoff areas or um I want to say tightly moan areas around the greens right but don’t think Florida tightly mode this is like zoa te it up like the easiest lies you can get the chip off of so if you’re not a good chipper and you can’t hit good chip shots off these lies then you’re not going to be able to get it up and down therefore all the guys that are really good their lies are so good that they can literally chip it in the leather every time so I think that’s where you see it because a guy like Jason day who is so good anyway but then he gets to have a perfect lie every time whereas there’s other guys that that have the ability to chunk it from a good lie or a bad lie right so I just think that that’s why you see this huge signal um the greens are are always generally pretty good um I mean obviously B gr this a good bent grass time of year here in Texas we haven’t really warmed up yet I mean we have two warm days yesterday and today but then it’s rain the rest of the week so um Footprints later in the day that’s going to be a place you want to play in the morning uh there’s a lot of stuff like that we have had they’ve had the corn fairy TOUR Championship a couple of times I mean we’re looking at a 25 to 30 under winner if it doesn’t if the wind doesn’t blow definitely possible with these conditions and on this golf course it’s one of the most interesting things that I have noticed from the projection so far is we have very little separation at the top and part of that is just the field we don’t have a Scotty Sheffer at the top of this field but I mentioned it to you backstage nine guys in this field are between 011 in the expected Strokes gained for the lead so from 1.1 to 1.21 nine guys there that should make for a pretty exciting leaderboard hopefully on Sunday yeah and and really the field is pretty good I mean we have good zator be all with the local ties um you know SEI wo local local ties Tom Kim local I we have a lot of a lot of guys that that are very local to this area and that’s where that a lot of them play at and practice at um at least a little bit maybe most of them I don’t know if any of any of them call it home right I don’t know if it’s anybody’s home course just because nobody wants to play it every day but I do think everybody has plenty of time out there yeah do you think it’s easier or harder to find outrights that you like in a in a week like this where there is no super clear favorite and you’ve got a bunch of guys bunched at the top in the projections um I I think it’s a great week to gamble um I mean look at our some of the winners not just at this golf course but just this event as well because of the Ever Changing conditions in in north Texas you know we can we literally had two weeks last year or last week two days two separate days where it blew over 40 constant I mean then we’re talking about like all of a sudden that Golf Course is a little bit harder and that chipping around the green stuff really comes into play and then you get if it gets if we get no wind and rain and soft and playing the ball up in the Fairway you’re all of the sudden going to go to a favorite like xotur because he can literally make a birdie on every hole so you know there’s a big variance yeah I I definitely agree with that I think the the thing that stands out to me when I look at the simulation results is I do think we have some guys that are showing value the problem is it’s in a Range that I typically don’t like to go to so for example we’ve got Adam Scott with a 5% chance to win he’s available at 25 to1 there’s value there Ben on we’ve got it 4.2% to win he’s available at 28 to one there’s value there but it’s not a lot and if you’re trying to get you know three four different outrights and you’re betting them all in the 20s that gets pretty tough the the next best guy that I see McKenzie Hughes we’ve got it 2.7% to win he’s available at 45 to one so any of those names stand after to you is sharp bets uh I mean I I think that I mean I love Adam Scotty hits it through the moon if we get a week where there’s not much wind and it and it does play out where we’re just sending it every hole um the Adam Scott all of a sudden becomes very very high on my list same with zator like if if we get those days of of not wind and wet where it’s just the chance to ball strike out ball strike everybody um man I I’m going to look and it kind of stinks because I don’t have the I don’t have the access that you have to some of these but I’m gonna look for somebody to contend that’s at huge odds um a Parker cooy uh a Paul barjon who’s made one cut who who played better last week with a partner um a Chad Ry a guy like a guys that we know can make birdies and bunches and um you know when we get these soft conditions I’m I’m sure these guys are going to be you know two three 400 to one type of guys does Johnny Vegas at 150 to one fit that bill for you man I so we talk about this some and we laugh about it a little bit and and some people understand and some don’t he’s on my don’t even look at him list like I don’t I I like I pretend he doesn’t exist and it’s just it’s because I’ve such a past of getting him wrong every time I I really like him one week and he plays terrible I can’t stand him the next week and he you know top fives out of nowhere like I just can’t figure him out so he’s on that list of like yeah I just like I’m just going to everything DFS like all of it kind of pretend he doesn’t exist it’s such a good call because I’m I’m not sure I’ve lost more money on a single player or at least like a worse Roi on a single player than Johnny bigs in main slates and yet he might have one of the highest rois for me on Showdown slates just the perfect Showdown player so maybe we just want to continue that and maybe it makes him like a good first- round leader bet something like that but but yeah I I think I’m with you he’d have to probably be 200 before I I made that bet but he does show up with 6% chance to win and we know he’s got the distance off the te I think the the surprise though is with so much around the green signal this week despite the fact that it should be a birdie Fest that’s a big big no no for for Vegas’s short game almost as bad as his putting yeah like I said he he’s he’s in that do not entertain list so I just try to look right over it and move on to somebody else I there’s just I kind of want to talk about this this is a good spot to say it but we can talk about we had the same winner back-to-back years right two years in a row Lee one and he was at 250 to1 and then 200 to1 so you how often do you get a defending champion at 200 to one and then he comes back and wins again and obviously he’s not in form this year but do you I mean I don’t even know what he is but he’s probably 100 or 80 to one where is he this year I I don’t even know but um let me see it’s not loading for me we’ll come back to it but yeah but you get my point like how do you how do you how do you come back to how do you win and then come back and offer super high odds again you know the following year I I just don’t he’s 45 to one on this site that I have so I bet on yours he’s probably 50 to 55 yeah um I don’t know it’s just weird to me do yeah I I I see I see your point um I do think this is one of those golf courses that despite the fact that the the course fit model isn’t super extreme in any way it does potentially lead to some pretty strong course fits because we only have two of the five that are even positive like uh accuracy off the tea iron plate and putting are all slightly negative and then you’ve got a 40% boost on driving distance and a 60% boost done around the green so if you can find players who either really fit those two skill sets or really don’t you can end up with some pretty extreme differences between Baseline expected Strokes gain and course fit expected Strokes gain which brings me to the player that I think is probably the hardest to project this week and to model this week which is a guy we’ve talked about a ton this year Jake oh yeah minwoo but like the thing with minwoo is we know who he is right he’s he’s really really good off the te now he’s almost as accurate off the te as he is long we’ve got 0 42 Strokes gain driving distance for minwu 39 for driving accuracy approach play still terrible around the green he’s still great still a really good putter so it’s it’s so much more to find with him where his nap we’ve seen nap employ some very different strategies off the te based on the golf course where for some weeks he’s just ripping driver gaining 25 30 yards on the field and then there are other events where like he he went to Bay Hill he went to the PLAYERS Championship at TBC Sawgrass and he mostly just hit that mini driver completely gave up his distance Advantage when we’ve seen him play really well the cognizant Mexico open especially even the Farmers Insurance open it’s typically been when we’ve had this big signal on driving distance and he feels like he can just unleash and lean fully into that speed advantage that he has do you think that this is one of those weeks where he can do that I I I can’t think of a whole yes I can I can think of one hole where you don’t hit a driver or like even for me like it I’m hitting like a hard 3-wood right I’m hitting something that’s flying 260 right so I there’s no spot that I mean he’ll be able to drive it on or around two par fours he’ll be able to reach all the par fives um and then all these par fours that like a guy like me I’m hitting I tell people all the time I love Craig Ranch every time I want to go hit a driver and a seven iron into every Par Four that’s where I go you know I mean you either literally can drive it on the green or every other par for as a driver in a seven iron or driver and a six iron like that’s just the way it is for me so he’s going to be hitting driver wedge to all these which is huge mhm this so this is really cool this is a little indication of why our Strokes gained driving accuracy metric is so powerful and so beneficial in the last event RBC Heritage he gained 15 yards on the field so actually that was a pretty good sign to to see him actually using driver a bunch on that golf course now maybe he also just gained because he still hits the mini driver pretty far but he hit 9% more Fairways than the field average and yet lost over half a stroke per off the T because when he missed he missed really badly they were very penalizing misses at Craig Ranch when he misses how penalized is he GNA be like do do you see the the offline drives causing him a stroke Two Strokes or can he get away with some of those bigger misses the way he could in Mexico it is so wide I don’t think that people can wrap their head around how wide this place is there’s and you want to talk about high leverage shots we have about three or four of those right so like par FES where you’re driving it up in a neck uh par fours that are drivable where it’s fairly narrow um man it’s funny because we talked about this for the Masters and I remember the same conversation like is it kind of a Nick Dunlap in a in a nap week like it’s kind of that same like same type of Palm Springs where we’re done lap one it’s a um yeah you know it fits the bill of just letting it go for these kids and and I think that’s a great call I think the more that these guys and I think that’s why SEI wo should play good because he loves the hit driver right he’s goingon to hit it a lot um you know all these guys that really want to hit driver all the time and love to hit driver off every hole they should have a lot of success here yeah it’s it’s actually a shame that uh that Dunlap didn’t play in Mexico because we we’d have that that extra piece of evidence for him but like he would finished t11 at Houston that was also a a distance Advantage golf course so yeah I I think nap has remain like even though he hasn’t played as well in the last month or so his irons have remained really really strong like the type of iron play that wins golf tournaments he’s gained over6 per round in each of the last three events he’s only lost Strokes with his iron once since the Farmers Insurance open it’s been one of the better iron players in the world the putter came back at the Heritage man if he’s unleashing driver I I really really like him at 100 to one even though our model doesn’t now maybe I need to go back into the model and kind of manually adjust some of these inputs for the expectation that he comes out and rips driver a little bit more than he has of late but what what what’s your take on the 100 to1 100 to1 is way that’s way too big of a number that a guy so we talk about this all the time but a guy that we know if he has his aame he can win this golf tournament right so his aame I mean I don’t know who the favorite is I’m guessing zalot torus or day I don’t I don’t really know but zotus is probably the favorite here if Will zorus and and Jake nap have their aame on this golf course is zot Torus is his aame that much better than than NS I don’t think so like I think they’re probably pretty close I’m with you there uh for sure so I I like that uh I also kind of like let me let me double check where is Nick Dunlap this week he’s 6,900 in DraftKings because I was scrolling I was like whoa yeah there’s a couple of other guys down there too Sam Stevens is intriguing to me uh Davis Thompson’s intriguing to me as as well he’s right about the same as J nap um yeah there’s a it’s a it’s an interesting week where it’s hard for me because the way that I think right I think menw Lee is probably the best player in this field I think that he is the most talented player in this field that’s just my opinion over spe and zor I know a lot of people are going to disagree but that’s what I think about the his ability I just don’t think he’s gotten there yet so for his price on draftking for I mean what is he 28 or so to one and 30 to one like it’s just too high for the most talented guy on the golf course on a course that should fit him really well I I like this minwoo call by the way Dunlap 150 to one in the outright I was hoping that he was more like 200 don’t think that I will play the 150 I am going to play nap at 100 um I like this call on minwoo it is interesting the only reason why he’s not higher in the expected win probability he’s I think fourth in expected Strokes gain something like that we’ found just over 3% to win is because his event to event standard deviation is low and the reason why his event standard deviation is low is because historically he hasn’t had the spike weeks with the approach play that you need to be a higher variance player but in the last five events he’s gained over a stroke per round with his irons twice and he’s gained with his irons in three of five events one of the events that he didn’t he was attive -2.7 per round at the B bar so maybe we are starting to see a little bit of that volatility in his iron play that we need to see I I do like this in wuk call especially because with distance mattering so much like he should gain a ton off the te we know how good he is around the greens if the irons Spike man he’s got a good chance this week yeah like I said it’s just when you see what what the course does and knowing that you can get a guy that talented and the thing the thing that the thing about it is here where he goes for par fives they’re G it’s not like it’s super easy shots I mean he’s still going to be hitting long irons into these par fivs just because there’s no roll um and if he misses the green he still has a chance to get it up and down in almost all spots he’s not I I don’t think there’s any par fives I mean I guess to the right a nine but outside of that you’re when you’re going for the par 5 and 2 there’s not really like water in play right you can’t hit it out of bounds with your second shot you’re going to be able to hit it again unless you hit a really bad golf shot y so both Justin and I have us open qualifying this week so we’re trying to keep this show very short really struggled to even find a time to record this so I know we’re only about 20 minutes in but let’s jump into the oneandone conversation then get out of here and hopefully we can each qualify for US Open sectionals what are your thoughtss here on one and done I mean obviously I’ve brought him up so much you know I’m leaning to Mino um that that’s do we still have minwoo let me double check that pretty sure we do I know vaguely remember I know that either I used him or we used him let me figure out which one it is we may have actually um he’s the yeah we used him at the cognizant and he actually almost made that comeback for us I think he went into the final round oh yeah yeah yeah he finished second you’re right um we so we got we got a lot out of them anyway uh you know I don’t really I’m gonna struggle this week because I I don’t have anybody any so-called favorites that I love right like I don’t have anybody that I’m just like man this is the week for this guy um you know I’m gonna have to kind of look I mean Jason day makes a lot of sense but I just don’t don’t love the way he’s playing I think he’ll be you know super super chalky here um I don’t love this fit for spe what do you think of Benny I mean I he he’s in the conversation for me I mean I have we used Scott already Scott would be in the conversation have we used Adam Scott that’s a good question I was wondering the same thing we have we used him at the API so it would be it would be then for me I mean Ben on um you know do we get to see the old Tom Kim being a local guy I know he plays out here a lot of times he’s starting to play better um yeah I mean on honor I mean Jason dayve would I mean he hits it high he chips it really well he hits it far he would you know he would be in the number the only other like Stephen Jagger is intriguing to me because I know you know his MO is he can make a million birdies at once um he he’s intriguing I’m not going to get behind this hogy stuff that everybody’s talking about like I’m I’m not I’m not interested in him much I just don’t like the way he plays uh for this place I think an would probably being a shootout what matters here I think he would probably be where I’d lean after obviously men wo with us using men wo already um not a good enough Fit For A zot Taurus uh I mean I don’t know do you have any more thoughts on on anybody else maybe a little deeper in the board on is he’s third in our win odds so I I kind of feel like we just go there uh deeper Mitchell M Hughes did really well for us here a year ago so I wouldn’t I wouldn’t be opposed to that but beyond that yeah we Mitchell came to mind but we used him in like Mexico or something when he seven or whatever all right well I think that will do it wish us luck at usop locals and hopefully we come back next week with some really good news thanks for tuning in we’ll catch you guys next time
1 Comment
Good luck and hope you both go low and qualify!!