Will Arsenal Continue to Cruise Towards Premier League Title After 5-0 Win? EPL Picks | Wondergoal

Action Network soccer experts Michael Leboff, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo preview this weeks slate of English Premier League and games around the rest of Europe. They also give out their best bets and a longshot, underdog parlay, only on Wondergoal presented by bet365! Click here for more soccer betting picks: https://bit.ly/SoccerAction

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00:00 – Introduction
00:45 – Arsenal at Tottenham Picks
8:51 – Liverpool at West Ham Picks
12:21 – Manchester City at Nottingham Forest Picks
16:30 – Crystal Palace at Fulham Picks
20:32 – Burnely at Manchester United Picks
24:52 – Sheffield United at Newcastle Picks
26:07 – Luton Town at Wolves Picks
29:00 – Brentford at Everton Picks
34:22 – Chelsea at Aston Villa Picks
35:42 – Brighton at Bournemouth Picks
38:50 – Bundesliga Best Bets
40:46 – Serie A Best Bets
43:09 – La Liga Best Bets
45:05 – Ligue 1 Best Bets
46:08 – Underdog Parlay
49:03 – EPL Best Bets

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#AuthorAnthonyDabbundo #AuthorBradCunningham #AuthorMichaelLeboff #BlueWireVideo

hello everyone and welcome back to wonder go the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network presented to you by bet 365 my name is Miche leof and joining me for this episode are my friends and co-hosts BJ Cunningham and Anthony dundo together the three of us are going to go over the upcoming 10 match slate in the Premier League this weekend we’ll touch on the rest of the European leagues give out a three- leg Underdog parlay 1571 excruciatingly close to to being very live um with uh today’s action but oh well we’ll just have to hit this one instead and then we’ll talk about our favorite bets for the Premier League coming up um there was of course a shakeup in the midweek in terms of the title race we’ll get into all that um but we’ll have and we’ll start there too um with with Arsenal who as we record we are recording Wednesday night um so City hasn’t played yet Arsenal are top of the league um with uh cities yet with two games in hand um Arsenal has a four point gap on on City who play Brighton they’re big favorite on Thursday uh but it’s a huge huge match another one for for Arsenal on Sunday this one will be played at Tottenham uh and Spurs are three to one underdogs to uh Arsenal traveling as a odds on minus 125 favorite the draw here pays out 3 to1 BJ this is an Anthony versus BJ Derby this is a massive game now that Anthony’s Liverpool have been eliminated from the title race he can become a Spurs fan again yeah uh so which is you know makes his life a little bit easier uh but you like Arsenal here huh BJ and it’s not just is it just your heart be honest it’s both it’s it’s everything right my heart my head my everything um I Arsenal looked amazing against Chelsea on Tuesday in a really bad spot and I think there were a couple things to take away from that match that really made Arsenal look a lot better and the main one is Thomas party being in Ed back into the lineup you know if you go last season he was Arsenal’s most important player for the first half and then he kind of fell off towards the second half him being in the lineup allows Dean rice to push forward more and you saw the effects of that with the very first goal right rice is able to float find Space got the ball dribbled right at the defense and got the assist for trossard so having party not only being an elite ball stopper but Tomy AO being able to invert as well it just gives Arsenal so much more tactical flexibility and also when Arsenal does lose the ball in the opponent’s final third rice has pushed up so far on them that he have one of your best counter pressors there ready to win the ball so there’s so many good things about Thomas party being insert in lineup that make Arsenal so much better and if we go back to the first meeting I know in end a two2 draw and Tottenham is one of the few teams that have created over one expect a goal against Arsenal this season the first half Tottenham could not string two or three passes together or get the ball out of their own end and Arsenal suffocated them 11 High turnovers for the match a seven passes per defensive action Arsenal’s coming off match against Chelsea where they it was Game State dependent like no not without a doubt because they scored in the fourth minute but they handed the ball to Chelsea they conceded possession they said we don’t think you’re good enough to break us down and we’re good enough out of possession to control this match so here you go have the ball and what Arsenal do they forced 14 High turnovers and six of those led to shots Tottenham or Tottenham is going to build out of the back they’re not going to send the ball along so without udogie now which is a huge loss for Tottenham because he would be the one that would be defending Saka another thing Arsenal’s been doing Ben White’s been overlapping quite a bit with Saka which creates a lot of problems for opposing defenses who getting those One V ones versus Saka so I think there’s a light a lot to like about Arsenal here yes AR Tottenham does have the rest Advantage yes they are at home but again not having UD DOI which now creates a little bit of a problem of what Spurs are able to actually do in buildup um I think ARS going be able to control this match out of possession I think that they’re going to be very live on set pieces as they always are and they’re going to be able to force High turnovers and create those easy transition moments so um projected Arsenal north of minus 130 so you know the Market’s kind of gone up a little bit here on totam like you said Michael it’s at minus 1225 so um that’s a little that’s like minus 120 is probably the breaking point for me so if you can find a minus 120 or better I think that’s good enough for Arsenal here on the road I think the fullbacks are the big key and the thing that I’m concerned about for Spurs here you mentioned udogie being out aoro is also listed as questionable here 5050 to go you know tottenham’s fullbacks are so important in buildup and how they like to use them um and I think they’re going to be a huge key in trying to play through pressure you can even go back to you know the United match way back in the beginning of the season and even that Arsenal match way back in the beginning of the Season where UD DOI poro like their their ability to uh you know be in possession uh to get forward to invert really enable them to play through United’s press when it was not as bad as it is now and Arsenal’s press which is you know maybe the best in the league so their ability to to do that without them becomes a little bit more shaky uh and also their attack is worse you know they they got they get so much production from Udi and poro getting into the box getting shots because at the end of the day you know Ron’s list is questionable too when Ron’s not in and the fullbacks are out son is giving them decent production Madison’s been okay and like they get they they get there but the attack is not you know relying on one or two three guys they rely on having all these numbers to to produce and when you start you know kneecapping the secondary guys and say you’re not going to play you’re out this guy’s out uh it is important and you saw the market take a ton of Arsenal money on the I think the odogy news but the thing is it is a really still like the fact that the fact that Arsenal has played three matches since spurs’ last match is a huge difference in terms of uh you know fatigue potential here you know it was just on the Pod like four days ago we were all like oh man Arsenal looks so tired they look so gassed they had one great performance you know against Chelsea uh a Chelsea team that we don’t really think much of defensively and now we’re just going to go back to like they free flying again I I can’t quite get there um the total on this match I have right around 3.1 now three and a half is Juiced under minus 150 if that got down to minus 140 I would take the under so I’m G to wait and see on this one get a little closer to game time I am concerned about tottenham’s fullbacks not even just defensively but in in going forward um and you know I still have the same you know I’m not going to overreact to one match where they created a bunch of chances largely in transition against Chelsea um you know they should be able to do that again here I’m curious who has more of the ball I think that’ll be more interesting you know if while it’s z00 which team do we think has more of possession I think is an interesting way of thinking about this match because Tottenham have controlled matches against almost everybody they’ve played this year but again like they played Liverpool when they had nine men um and they played you know Arsenal at Arsenal that was the one match where they maybe didn’t control it but they had a good amount of possession so who has majority of the possession will be really interesting here because uh you know Arsenal’s away from home they could come out and look to play on the break again I think that’s a very viable strategy for them yeah uh I I would tend I think I’m going to end up betting uh Spurs here on Sunday morning um it just goes into the to the fatigue Factor we I mean we saw it with Liverpool and Everton today and maybe a little apples oranges a little bit um given how those teams want to play Arsenal compared to Liverpool but it’s it’s a factor here like it’s it’s not we we can’t just like like you said like just forget that we were saying oh what a terrible spot against Chelsea um uh on on the Sunday episode now that it’s a couple days later and they they throttle Chelsea who by the way can that can happen to them so I I like I like Spurs here it’s cliche to say but in a in a match like this where you’re um trying to cause your Eternal rival to win to lose the title it’s I’m expecting a uh a thriller here so I think that actually helps Spurs a little bit if it gets a little hectic like that’s that’s what they want to be in right like they want to be in a in a cauldron where um you got you know people banging for blood and such yeah I have Arsenal minus 110 so I’m like pretty much in line with the market uh on this one so no real no real side opinion U well thank you for adding that um let’s go on to um we’ll go Liverpool and West Ham and first we got to say that Liverpool lost the league at goodison Park they lost the league at goodison Park um and now they have to go to to West Ham boy you want to talk about a flat spot man this is tough um the the lines already come down a bit on on West Ham and we we’ve got very little like enthusiasm to bet this hammers team but unless you’re just betting into Liverpool winning one for the Gipper here and and just trying to and and like look they’re they’re going to try to to stay in who knows maybe City drops points to Brighton um but you know it’s really hard to find it’s I would be hard pressed to find anyone who’d be confident laying minus 180 with Liverpool on the road uh considering once again the schedule spot right like this is still a ton of soccer piling up on on these guys they looked pretty Gass today the mosala looks way out of sorts um so the the the backline too was really had having issues with um set pieces and hey David Moyes loves himself a set piece so uh Ariel DS yeah exactly it’s uh I’m not saying the same game’s going to play out again but if there were two two opponents that could do it back Tob back it would be these two so I would lean towards West Ham here in pretty I’d be much more emphatic about betting West Ham than than uh Liverpool who lost the league uh today goodison Park BJ your thoughts here West Ham and Liverpool yeah you know if the same game plays out which it probably will where West tries to play very passively and just takes on a bunch of shots they are significantly worse in their defensive block than Everton is so that’s a worry here if you’re G to back West Ham right like they can definitely hit Liverpool on the break they have the guys to do it they have the ball carriers they have the pace to be able to hit them but I just I’m just envisioning Darwin nun taking like 10 shots in this match and six of them being hilarious missing but also scoring twice yeah exactly but yeah I mean West Ham I mean you might want to look at Liverpool shot over props um it might be a little bit gam State dependent but yeah it’s I mean West Ham they just don’t defend anymore they’re going to sit passively they’re goingon to allow Liverpool in their final third um and Liverpool is not really a team that and you saw that against Everton today that really really works hard hard hard to get the best quality chance it’s kind of just like once it opens up boom shot and that’s why a lot of shots got blocked today so I’m passing I’m right in line with the market I have Liverpool at minus 166 total at 3.6 so there’s really just no value for me here so I’m passing I’m going to hope they rotate because like I think they if they do rotate I want to bet them at the at the reduced price or straight road match too right that’s the thing fourth traight Road match in 10 days they get the early kickoff Saturday morning after the Wednesday have anything to say about brutal travel all the way back from Everton too right factor that in um but yeah I I think that you know if Liverpool rotates some guys in here and we get some fresh legs and they still get to go at this terrible West Ham defense and I’m going to get like minus 150 instead of minus 180 uh because Salah sits a cooked version of Salah then uh I’m happy to take Liverpool at a discount but right now at the current price with not knowing anything about the lineups I’m gonna pass all right uh let’s go now to city and Forest uh with Forest is a big Underdog at home they are Plus uh 650 between plus 550 and 650 depending where you’re looking um cityus 250 the draw is plus 450 I think all of us are going to be on the same page here with Force being a pretty tricky team for this uh for the city to unlock like yeah City’s Lightyear is better than them but uh we know how Forest is going to want to play we know what nuno’s going to want them to do and they’re still in the thick of this relegation battle so they’re going to want any any bit of uh the three points available here whether it’s one or or three um between them and city they’re one point clear of luten toown right now only three points clear of Burnley they have the points deduction to contend with so that’s all um playing into this too but I just think you know this is going to be a a park the bus special even at home for for Forest BJ and it could help Forest have at least a platform to cover the spreads which is where you guys I’m sure are going to be looking yeah I do like Forest uh plus one and a half here um you know chelse we’re obviously like you said we’re recording this for the Brighton match so we don’t know what happens there but the match that we’ve least seen is the FA Cup match against Chelsea where City really struggled to figure out Chelsea’s low block and what Chelsea did so they played kind of a unique low block and they tried it against Arsenal it didn’t work but they played a 424 low block and the reason why they did that is because when City tries to build up and you know usually it’s a back three and then it varies when in the second and third faces of buildup but if they’re going with a back three if Chelsea is able to be aggressive out of that which they were they were trying to press out of that low block if they’re press and able to win the ball they have a 43 situation you saw that work a couple times you know better again nicoo Jackson could have put a couple away like they had chances for sure so you could see Nottingham Forest really replicate the exact same game plan like yes it’ll be a park the bus special they’ll play uh a little bit deeper but I think you’ll see them be a little bit aggressive out of their low block trying to press City trying to win the ball they’ve been a little bit more aggressive with their pressing under Nuno like it’s not like a huge jump like they were the most passive team in the league under Steve Cooper pass per defensive action 18.8 under Nuno they’re about 15.2 so there’s been some like onus to actually press and like you know not just sit back and they have the pace and the guys that can give City problems in transition with Morgan Gibbs white Hudson andoy elanga Raina Etc they have the pace to be able to do it and you know the previous match uh Roger got a red card at halftime when city was already up to nothing but even up to that point like City hadn’t really like dominated the match or created a bunch of high quality chances like they were still struggling against Forest slow block so this also Forest who’s played much better at home uh the entire season around a plus three expect a goal differential been much better offensively under Nuno averaging close to you a little over 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes so uh I think Forest who is well drilled and used to playing a low block can give City some problems who the last couple matches have kind of struggled trying to figure out Low Blocks so I like Forest plus one and a half here only projected City a little north of minus 150 so I like the trees at home yeah earling Holland out for Thursday questionable for Sunday too so that’s important to note obviously uh the drop off between him to Alvarez it’s like half a goal of expected goals per 90 minutes they’re getting from Holland versus Alvarez even you take out penalties so I know Holland hasn’t been quote unquote as good as last year in finishing issues but it’s still a big big big golf yeah ah you know what now we’re we’ talking about it I actually don’t hate the draw here at all um I don’t either yeah I think that this could end up one1 so plus 450 on the draw I think I’m going to uh be there bet against these title teams a lot in the last three weeks you can pretty much Bank on that yeah exactly exactly um all right how about Crystal Palace just an absolute uh Juggernaut under glasher who were like what is this guy doing is he done is he is he started at to to they look the same basically and uh well he’s got them rocking and rolling a bit here uh coming off of their third straight win they’ve beaten Liverpool uh West Ham and then Newcastle United by a aggregate score of 8-2 uh the most recent being a win uh against Newcastle at home thorough two two-nil win and we’re going to be right back on him all three of us uh on palace here I like the money line you guys are going with the spread Anthony uh you can get it started here as they take on fham I’ll tell you what every time you kept reading I felt less and less like I like palace here just like oh look at this you know new manager I mean it feels squ but three in a row the most trendy dog on the face of the Earth this weekend feels that way about them but I mean look I mean uh I watched every minute of the Newcastle match today they were the only team in it dominated a Newcastle team that had been trending up uh the E you know they they even satad ois for the first halfish of the match and uh mateta might get to 10 League goals this year and and he’s been on a bit of a of a heater but yeah Golden Boot Darkhorse next season no he scor you know what 25 more goals Cole Palmer wasn’t even he only needs like you know 12 or 13 more goals we’re we’re okay it’s true yeah Palmer season come on that guy’s cooked yeah yeah he caught a cold uh the uh you know but there’s not a ton of difference between these two teams for me right now in fact Palace is a little better with everybody healthy than Fulham I think so you know you’re getting plus a half at minus 120ish I think it’s good nothing too crazy here I think it’s Square I think you know maybe we’re catching Palace toward the top of the market on them but you know they’re the they’re the team that that looks like they’re sprinting into the finish and actually wants to be out there and they’re playing good stuff well the good news is we’re going to be betting them again uh the following week match week two they play Liverpool at at SAR don’t they no they play Manchester United oh even better even we’ll be we’ll be Ling minus two and a halfs and minus three and a halfs with Palace I think I think they might be like a pick them in that game I hav the lines but that’s just that’s a guess BJ yeah uh so under glasner they’re really just starting to build out of the back more control more possession you know Anthony mentioned they playing ois and E both centrally well they’re also dropping them deep when they try to build up and they’re forcing center backs and defensive midfielders out of position and spaces they don’t really want to go combining with mateta you saw that a lot today against Newcastle this guy Adam Wharton came over from Blackburn I mean he’s incredible like uh I mean pal I mean you should shouldn’t be a surprise because Palace historically just don’t miss on guys from the uh the championship because obviously they hit on Elis and and a and many other guys but him with a double pivot with Will Hughes has been working really well so far um and even when Palace is out of possession they’re they’re pressing really well and they’re falling back into a 5-32 like they’re they’re a really well- drilled defensive team we know that from Ry Hansson but you know the thing is is once I mean it goes without saying but with E and Alis on the pitch together they’re averaging 1.7 expected goals per 90 minutes under glasner they’ve now played five matches against teams in the bottom half of the table and they have a plus 4.7 expected goal differential that gets those five teams so just much better with their best two players much better with a manager that uh has tactics that cater to his best players so I agree with Anthony like these two teams are like bang on even since clner took over so Palace plus a half okay uh let’s talk about Manchester United next amazing great win right amazing win man was actually performance All Things Considered yeah Harry McGuire um sticking it into his Boyhood Club he still goes to Sheffield United matches which is I love that um so he’s he’s he gets uh United e even and then uh Bruno scores twice in a 3-2 Thriller against uh Sheffield United um now they take on another uh relegation threatened team and uh they’re minus 210 at home and Burnley is 5 to one on the road and the draw is 4 to one and do we even need to go into it like I mean if if you’re struggling um to get results against Sheffield United and that what it wasn’t an aberration or a blip on the radar uh you just your past two matches have been absolute slobber knockers against Coventry City Sheffield United and before that you know you Dre Bourne myth so it’s not good so why not take a shot with Burnley here it does look like the numbers you know they come down a bit but because nobody believes in United but still I’ll I’ll take a five to one shot with a A Team fighting relegation against this mess in at Old Trafford uh BJ yeah absolutely um and I think it’s interesting how United conceded the first goal so before the match it came out um that the new I think it’s the new president or the new owners uh want to play a specific Styles so they’re forcing ten hog to play a more possession based style which he did play at aax he just can’t right now because they have nobody healthy and they try to build out the back and they just concede a really easy goal off of uh a b pass from the goalkeeper right into the back of the net um burnley’s a team that likes to press they haven’t done it much because you know they get beat in transitioned to so many times but given the way that Sheffield United who had been one of the more passive teams we’ve seen all season long was able to cause problems for United trying to build out of the back like of course they can cause cause some problems here Force some high turnovers and get some easy transition opportunities I mean United played Mayu and Erikson in the Midfield today like that’s zero to little ball-winning like Mayu is great but he’s not an elite ball stopper yet so they just have nothing nobody’s healthy like the United attack is still good and everything but this is going to be another basketball match and United can’t really out I mean they yes they got a cut like Bruno scored a penalty and then from outside the box and then holand got one when the match got stretched but I like Burnley plus one and a half here you get still a minus one40 out there um they have underperformed lately like they’ve been okay like they’re not as bad as Sheffield they’re not as bad as Luton so they definitely can give United some problems here so I like them plus one and a half yeah so I got Burnley at 1.2 goals which puts them right around 33 is% to score twice so like plus 180 is not like a great value bet plus 185 but you know that’s been the BET we’ve been doing on this show just about uh every other week with you know team total over one and a half against man united we had Bournemouth and Coventry and you know I I think at the end of the year here I’m going to have some money on Burnley team total for the similar reasons that this is just one of the worst defenses I’ve ever seen from a big six team they’ve now conceded the most shots in the Premier League which is remarkable that was before today so maybe Sheffield probably got ped again but it’s pretty remarkable that they’re that far down the table in that metric given their name and brand um but you mentioned it BJ I mean Shaw and Martinez are important to build up not having either is killing them and it’s never been a strength of Maguire’s so you know Onana gets pressed and uh there’s so little respect from these teams I mean Sheffield comes and just gives it a go and you know goes up 2-1 in the second half they ultimately fold because they’re Sheffield but uh yeah I think burnley’s live here to score a couple times again and we’re go back to the back to the well as we like to do on this show yep yeah and probably our favorite well uh for this season um not too much from any of us uh Newcastle and Sheffield United Newcastle right now is sitting at -450 they are the uh biggest favorite on the board for this week and Sheffield United’s traveling to St James uh at 10 to one uh draw here six to1 of course Sheffield United is relegated got nothing here uh any anything from you guys no I just looked at ishack uh anytime goal scor is like minus 150 so no thank you um kind of tells you everything you need to know yeah I have 3.6 an easy easy passam score is still like like minus 180 something so like I don’t really have any interest in any of the anything here I think there’s a funny story to this which is uh I I bet the under three at like even money in the first meeting this was way back in September and I remember it was like 2.8 goals I had or 2.85 and now I project 3.6 goals so it just shows you how much the goal environment’s changed how much these teams have changed um just you know the bottom falling out for Sheffield and newcastle’s defense just crazy how much can change in six months but uh here’s where we are and I have no B here all right then we can move on uh Luton Town and wolves up next obviously massive game for Luton as they continue there uh battle to stay in the Premier League wolves as a uh oddson slightly odds on favorite minus 106 at home uh Luton traveling plus 260 the draw is plus 280 uh you guys both like wolver Hampton I’m going to pass here Anthony uh tell us about wolves me I think luton’s going to be a popular pick here you’re going to hear the punditry that’s going to say oh you know wolves are in poor form they’re on the beach they’re looking toward next season uh they got all these injuries all of which is probably true uh luten town they need the win they’re only one point behind forest in the relegation picture have four matches left uh this is one of their better chances to get a result I know I think they have brenford and Everton left they have Everton left so maybe that’s their best one but uh tough stretch for them to close and you’re going to say oh you know Lon you know they’re going to get the result they need but I you know the number is overcompensating for that the market is saying that Luton is just a smidge worse than wolves I mean there’s almost a half goal between them HomeField Advantage you know throws throws in there as well I know wolves are playing like half of a change team but at even money I think they’re cheap so I’m gonna not a huge play for me you know I don’t like to like overstake these favorites with no motivation but it’s definitely a small Play Just the number being so much lower than it should be at this point in the season yeah I mean the injury situation actually isn’t that bad for wolves as I think people are making it out to be because coona was on the bench he came off the bench against bourman today uh who knows if he plays obviously but at least he’s healthy and available to play um really the only guys that are out are Dawson Bard and NATO other than that everybody’s available you know two best midfielders lamina and Gomez are available uh kilman’s available the whole back lines available so yeah like Anthony said like this is a very suppressed price on a wolves team that yeah has overperformed quite a bit but I think what will be interesting here is how good wolves is trying to build out and how aggressive Luton is out of possession with their pressing because L wolves has had you know they they played all right against Arsenal like they exposed some flaws in Arsenal’s press but they really struggled against barma today they turned it over a ton in their own Final in their own final third luden is is not even anywhere close to as good of a pressing team as as those two teams are so if they try to go manto man and Luton is still missing a ton of center backs here like it’s not like it’s gotten any better um yeah it’s a it’s a good spot for wolves who have played much better at home this season and they don’t have to travel like they just played at home against Bournemouth they’re gonna be at home here again so yeah a lot of must-win taxs here uh for Luton Town so I mean I projected wolves around minus 140 so minus 151 yeah so I like him even money all right let’s uh mooving on Team of the Year Everton uh they are taking on brenford uh 12:30 p.m. eastern time kickoff at goodison Park uh Everton plus 140 brenford plus 190 the draw here pays out plus uh 250 uh of course just a just a massive massive win for Everton on on just just about every level um today against Liverpool they’ve won two and a row uh they are free and clear uh it seems so on uh on 33 points brenford free and clear too little bit of a uh we’re we’re not on the beach just yet but we’re we’re getting there b um I would say brenford would probably be the right side here I’m going to pass though I got nothing here Anthony yeah short rest quick turnaround is tough such a physical emotional match uh you know kind of their Super Bowl really at this point now they’ve basically secured you know safety and uh they had the short rest spot it’s funny because something interesting else happened today I went back and looked Everton’s preseason point total when we back way back when we did the Wonder go draft we did uh back in August with Alan Shapiro and he came on and we did you know we we each picked all 20 teams over or under uh and we’ll release the results when know more about the teams and who won this year but uh Everton was 40 and a half so the win today the win today put them at 33 now uh I we have to debate I think we should grade it like there wasn’t a points seduction In fairness to Alan uh who bet the over in in the show uh he had over 40 and a half which cashed today so all the hand ringing we’ve done about Everton this year we’ve probably talked about them more than any team on the Pod not named Aral they went over their preseason point total with four matches to spare based on the the way we’ve bet them this year the Heartbreak they’ve caused us you would have thought they were like the worst team that has ever lived um and it’s just kind of the reality that like yes they can’t score from open play they have their flaws they the market always thought they were pretty solid they’ve they’ve surpassed preseason Market expectations maybe they haven’t met in Season Market expectations but you know all this hand ringing about how horrible Everton is um that has gone on I think in the public and because they were in this relegation battle because of Point deductions not how good they actually are uh was funny to to kind of look back on now uh so congrats to a along and getting that win uh over 40 and a half uh and I’m gonna hope I get my four points back for my Nottingham Forest over too because I have I have them in the pool well I I I wanted to ask you are you going to be able to watch this match how many set pieces there going to be it’s going to be horrendous what time is the kick 12:30 Eastern alone Island game no you know look I don’t hate set pieces I just I don’t I they don’t excite me I I you know what got exciting today um first of all I was dreading set pieces because I knew Everton had a huge Edge and and it was like every time the ball went in the Box it felt like they were going to score and you know I had the under but the the crowd Roar when they win a corner is amazing that that that is worth it yeah it’s the best yeah it was wonderful atmosphere DCL bodying up uh Van djk van Disney all day yeah that was great I’m on you know people you know you were texting me in our group chat uh making fun of me because you know Liverpool went down look I’m I’m out I’m on to Arie you know we the Nord are coming to anfield next year Arie slot the uh manager of finor now the favorite to take the Liverpool job kind of uh poor man he’s like a Walmart CL in a way so you know what we’ll take it yeah um the names linked to to Liverpool are not going to stop it’s hilarious um so Gary O’Neal which I thought would be hilarious you know fired from Bor myth does a pretty good job with Wolves massive step up to Liverpool um former makes too much sense also it’s it truly is an impossible job yeah no I think it’s almost it’s almost you want to hire someone who you’re totally comfortable with firing in three months hire Mourinho they just should do it they can’t do it but off I can’t I can’t I can’t hate an the squad is well honestly if they went for an I don’t think he would leave but like if he did I would respect it okay that was his club right yeah but I would be furious um well yeah because you want to root for an and you want to root for against Liverpool but no I think Arie is a perfect Tire I think you know going in that mold uh now the last bald man to come out of the Dutch League yeah everyone said was perfect tier I I like ten hog yeah I thought he’d do better than this but but also Liverpool’s a much better run Club than man united so it’s a very very different situation that he be dropping into you just watch F play Atletico Madrid and roma and all their great European nights they’ve had you become an Ary Ary fan Villa and Chelsea up next uh this one 300 P p.m. eastern time on Saturday after afternoon uh Villa plus 120 at home Chelsea traveling at 2 to1 plus 280 this looks right to me I got nothing uh to go into um in fact Anthony you’re the only one with a bet here so these two teams met twice in the cup and it was pretty funny because the first meeting nothing happened and then the second meeting it all happened and I kind of think this is a match where uh you know it has two wide range outcomes but I think the total is a little low at over three and a half plus 115 so given how little defending we’ve seen from Chelsea in transition and how little defending we’ve seen from Villa in transition the fact that Chelsea should have Cole Palmer back so you figure they’ll get about a penalty and a half with him in the lineup uh there’s going to be constant spacing behind there’s going to be time on the ball for Chelsea you know Chelsea have struggled most with Arsenal Liverpool’s high pressure turning them over and creating all kinds of chances vill does not really pressed there’s going to be time and space for them to pick out those Runners on the wings get the crosses into Jackson hopefully Jackson scores one or two because he’s been killing killing Chelsea betters the last couple weeks but uh this total is a little low for me should be a flat three and a half so plus money is good okay uh let’s move on to the last Premier League match we’ll talk about that’s uh B Bournemouth and Brighton uh once again Anthony you’re the only one with a play here uh it’s a 9:00 a.m. kickoff on Sunday I have a feeling most people will be watching Spurs and Arsenal uh but nonetheless Bournemouth plus 130 at home Brighton traveling at plus 200 to tie here would pay out plus 260 Brighton hasn’t played City so take it away Tony yeah I mean I hate to sound like a broken record because I do this every episode but Ferguson ruled out for the season now uh gonna get ready for next year kind of ready to buy the post hype breakout of Evan Ferguson next fall but either way uh their attack is running out of guys here and and like FTI is back but he you know he’s played sparingly this year and then ciso is back but he’s played so little like so many of the guys that they now have healthy have played so few minutes that I just don’t know what we’re going to get from them uh and as a result I’m waiting to see how Thursday looks you know maybe the market moves off of that but there’s a 325 at minus 115 I have this total right at three so I I would like the under there at that number yeah I’m I’m a little bit interested in Bournemouth here I want to see how Thursday goes with City cuz I do have Bournemouth at you know plus 111 and the matchup here with their hybrid press with Brighton wanting to build out of the back I mean I know wolves is not a very good build out of the back team but I was incredibly impressed by Bartman today and the way they’re able to win the ball in the middle of the pitch so um yeah with Brighton running out of guys not having Billy Billy Gilmore who was incredibly crucial to their buildup um and finding those pockets of space in the middle like the the range of outcomes here is I think far worse for Brighton than it is good and they’re obviously in a situation where they’re in the middle of the table their manager leaving so you know especially coming off a one less day of rest I don’t hate a look at Bournemouth here um you know they’re sitting at plus 130 right now so again gonna see how Thursday goes with Brighton maybe we’ll get a better price on Bournemouth but kind of like the cherries all right that wraps up the Premier League uh we will Circle back at the end of the show with our favorite bets but uh before we get into the Bundesliga and the rest of Europe a reminder that wonder goal is proudly presented by bet 365 and bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 you must be 21 or older in present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia and now North Carolina or 18 and older in Kentucky if you or anyone you know has a gambling problem and wants some help please call 1 1800 Gambler or 1- 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right Bundesliga time um you you guys uh will take it from here BJ you can go first yeah I like RB leig minus 140 against Dortmund in a look Ahad spot with Dortmund having to play in the Champions League against PSG uh leig I I know Germany’s already secured the fifth spot and dormund has a pretty clear Gap uh over fryberg but life has been in really good form one four of their last five matches have a plus 8.8 expected goal differential even though they’re kind of on the beach per se I think they’re going to want to keep that good form going they also present a huge problem for Dortmund which we already know about is that dormund has zero to little ball winning in the middle of the pitch and they really struggle defending in transition Amir Shan is also suspended for this match so if leig is gonna attack transitionally through there 4222 like dortmund’s not gonna be able to stop it I mean leip’s averaging close to two expected goals this season and the other aspect is Dortmund is not a good buildup team they play much better in transition they’re indecisive in buildup they constantly turn the ball over their own end so with li leig pressing them relentlessly just presents a really bad situation here for Dortmund who don’t really need to win honestly um so I think they’re going to have one eye in the Champions League so I like leig minus 140 yeah I’m going to take verto Breman plus a half on the road at plus money against osberg faded osberg last week successfully I’m going back to the well if you take out red cards since the second half started they’re a bottom four defense uh and so is verto Breman so you know I’m not like going to Hype them up but I just think this defense is super overvalued and the team has run really good you know they’re they’re like almost a full half goal better than their expected numbers in the second half so I think there’s regression coming for this sburg team I said it last week we won I’m going back to the well as we like to do on this show and I’m taking verto Breman plus a half at plus 105 all right uh let’s move on to Syria ah and uh BJ started here too over over two and a half in leche and Monza uh mon is a really interesting team because they’re in the bottom half of the table and you know typically teams in Italy and around Europe honestly when you’re in the bottom half table play low block transitional type you know systems but Monza actually plays they’ve taken principles from derer Brighton and Thiago mates bologo where they want to build out of the back they want the opponent to press them and then they like to get the balls Outlets out wide create overloads wide wide areas there and then once they get to third phase of buildup they create an overload in the middle of the pitch which is what Diago mat essentially does at bolognia the problem with that is is that yes they’ve been okay doing that but when they play teams that are like halfway decent at pressing which nobody really presses in Syria anymore they tend to falter and they tend to turn the ball over a lot in their own final third leche is a unique team in the in in the bottom half of the table where they will press you they are top five in high turnovers they’re sixth in passes per defensive action so this is going to create one of two things either mon is going to be able ble to draw on their pressure and get through the first and second and they get to that third phase buildup with numbers or they’re going to turn it over and they’re going to allow a pretty easy transitional opportunity so I think total’s too low here projected 2.8 goals so over two and a half at plus 130 for me in Monza and leche which is 9:00 am on Saturday morning so yeah I mean I don’t love anything in Syrian nothing jumps off the page from a numbers perspective Ive I’m in line with the market on every game uh but if you wanted to take a shot and I’m going to later on Torino plays inter inter clinch the title The Season’s pretty much done and you know Torino’s still going to show up and defend with the best of them the thing is if inter’s at it defensively I only have Torino projected for 0 49 goals um so you know not the most exciting team to back but again if you get an inter team that sits off defensively and Torino gets up like are they going to really care are they partying on the streets of Milan you know that’s the question it’s uh it’s officially uh partying in the streets season for these some of these big time favorites that are out of the other cups and competitions all right uh Spain uh Anthony what do you got uh you know we haven’t faded Sevilla as a podcast in a while BJ what’s going on there oh I did on Monday and they lost or they beat May mayorca so okay so we’re we lost back we’re then in that case uh RI batist is plus 110 their numbers have quite fallen off a ton this year um they have not been a very good team but uh at home they’re still projected for me better than Sevilla and they’re only plus 110 so I like them in this spot seevilla you know did the thing where they flirted with relegation for the first half and they had like a good enough winning run to pull out of it but their numbers are still well below League average batis closer to just a slightly below average so Ray batis Plus one10 in Spain yeah and I like uh mayorca drao bet plus 118 on the road at kadiz uh kadiz this is a must-win situation for them they are six points behind both mayorca and saligo with h six matches left to play here in La Liga um but cadis is one of the the worst teams uh in Spain this season they’re horrible offensively they’re your just traditional 442 low block like just rely on a few transition opportunities and Crosses to create all of their chances mayca plays very similar where they do play a low block as well but they’ve played it more successfully this season they’re a better defensive team better offensive team and what I love about mayorca is they are the definition of setpiece merchants 11 of their 25 goals or non-penalty goals this season have come off of set pieces kadiz is one of the worst teams in terms of XG for set piece allowed so I mean like there’s a six7 go Gap in terms of underlying numbers here and we got kadiz as a little slight favorite here at home which I just don’t agree with it’s just must win tax because kadis needs this one so uh mayor could draw no bet plus 118 uh okay and BJ you’re the only one with anything uh in League o uh yeah actually a pretty important match for European uh Europa League Europa conference League spots Marcel and lws like over two and a half at minus 110 you know laws is generally a defense that has overperformed a lot this season a lot of that came down to Bryce Samba just drastically overperforming his post shot XG but he’s kind of regressed a little bit he had about six matches ago he was at a plus 9.8 now he’s down to about a 7.5 so you’re seeing their aggression kind of more towards the mean Marseilles is a much better team when they’re playing in transition which the same thing with Lon so you could see a very back and forth type encounter and I know Marse has a uh Euro Europa League semi-final coming up on Thursday against Atlanta but they need to win to get into a European spot for next season so they could go on for the Europa League but um generally they’ve been playing these very up and down matches under gu a so um I like over two and a half minus 110 okay uh pretty exciting uh Underdog parlay for us this week it pays out 157 to1 Anthony uh you can get us started back toback one out of Threes for us but we hit a 5 to one BJ hit one Saturday and then Everton for us so Sheffield United was right there Sheffield had a chance Chelsea you know right around the corner corner just missed on them uh would they lose by five uh yeah so I’m going to go with Torino six to one uh you know not a numberers projected Edge for me but you know at the end of the season we get these high variance teams that don’t really care if they win or lose anymore necessarily and we’ve seen inter be pretty healthy with their rotation of their top Strikers at various points this season so if you get like a Sanchez and arnovich lineup all of a sudden this game becomes much more lower event Torino is a stout defensive team and and they’re going to be plenty interested in in spoiling you know they got a chance to say they beat the Champs uh so uh I think three and0 be up for it they always play hard under yourich and you know inter we’ve seen this with like Bayern when they clinched the league really early PSG last year dropped a couple games late you just don’t really care as much they lost a mines byon did last year so you get these kind of spots where uh you know they don’t they don’t quite get as up for it the mines game was two years ago but you get the point um all right I’ll go with Burnley and this is simple like let’s keep trying and keep poking this Manchester United Team with these big underdogs they just had a a real Rough and Tumble win a feel bad win uh as we we’re talking about last weekend against uh uh Sheffield United 20th Place and then right before that was the FA Cup semi-final where they needed penalties and an absolutely incredibly fortunate VAR decision to go their way to get by cry city of the championship not that uh complicated Burnley fighting for their lives I think that they give uh United quite Scare at the very least on uh over the weekend BJ what do you got Crystal Palace plus 275 on the road against Fulham uh for Crystal Palace they’ve had a real Resurgence under glasner and it really just come down to the fact that their best two players lisay and E are both healthy and glasner is using tactics that actually benefit those two players he’s dropping them deep in buildup he’s pulling Defenders out of position he’s combining with mateta and it’s really created a really fun Christal Palace team so far under glasner they’ve played five matches against teams in the bottom half of the table and they have a plus 4.7 expect goal differential against those teams which tells you all I need to know Fulham has just been kind of a bang on average team over here over the second half of the season they have been playing more aggressively they have been trying to press higher so if they try to do that at home when they’re a favorites which I think they might try to do Crystal Palace is going to have some opportunities here with their buildup so I like Chrystal Palace plus 275 yep like I said Alice Torino and Burnley that one pays off uh 157 to one if they all come through on to our favorite bets for the upcoming uh Premier League weekend I’ll go first because BJ you just talked about uh my favorite bet I like Crystal Palace on the money line against Fulham think these two teams is basically a coin flip when you put them on a neutral field so I like that the White Palace is trending towards the end of the season everything looks a okay under Oliver glasher uh Anthony what do you got I’m going to make it the square play of the weekend because I really struggled to have a best bet this year because I this weekend because I wanted to use wolves but BJ first took them and then also it’s you know they’re kind of a disaster so I’m going to be square play huby Lewis in the news I’m going with it’s hip to be square Crystal Palace plus a half at minus 120 at Fulham gonna ride this this e Elis train I keep watching them and being impressed so you know what screw it I’m going with them yeah and I like wolves even money at home against luten toown we’re just getting a lot of must must-win taxs here in luten toown who need all three points here to get out of the relegation Zone you know I think the market is overweighting wolves injuries right now well COA is back H hean hang is back really it’s just Pedro NATO is their main key loss right now otherwise they pretty much have their full Squad they’re playing at home against luden toown who’s been the worst offensive team in the Premier League worst defensive team in 2024 they have very little center backs healthy they’re going to have to play very aggressively out of possession wolves had showed against Arsenal that they have the ability to build out through good pressing teams especially through the middle of the pitch and now that they have coia available they have that outlet and that person in transition who can get on the end of those final third chances and I mean brenford was able to do that with great success scoring five goals against luten toown I think wolves gonna have a lot of success here offensively and they’re a fantastic low block and transition defending team so I like wolves even money all right that does it uh for this episode of wle presented by bet 365 for BJ and Anthony I’m Michael good luck with all your bets this weekend happy Anzac Day to all our Australian and and news listeners in New Zealand as well um hopefully you have a a nice holiday weekend um but until we reconvene over the weekend uh best of luck with all your bets