The CJ Cup Byron Nelson + Volvo China Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 304 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson + Volvo China Open.

#VolvoChinaOpen #cjcupbyronnelson #tpccraigranch #PGATOUR #DFS #Golf​ #FantasyGolf #PGA​ #OneAndDone ​#RickRunGood​​ #draftkings

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson + Volvo China Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:30 Intro
01:35 Tyler from Phoenix Listener Review
03:27 Last Week
17:39 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Start
51:20 Volvo China Open Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/cj-cup-byron-nelson-tips-2024/

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Strokes Gained Rankings: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/byron-sg-analysis-2024/

CJ Cup Form Stats: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/byron-combi-stats-2024/

Paul’s Volvo China Open Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/volvo-china-open-tips-2024/

Volvo China Open Form Stats: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/china-combi-stats-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf
Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting
Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V
Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
Podcast Addict: https://podcastaddict.com/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/2197395
Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651
Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

if you li betting on golf but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf betting system podcast it’s episode 304 this is our 2024 CJ cup Byron Nelson and Volvo China open bets pod Barry o hanran and Paul Williams join me Steve bford to discuss our selection for this week’s PGA and DP World T action good morning Jens good morning guys morning guys visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have in-depth betting previews for both events Strokes gained rankings for the Byron Nelson player form stats plus of course Byron Nelson and China open predictor models all of that content is available across both events completely free of charge there is no payall on X follow Barry at a good talk golf Paul at golf betting I am at banford golf subscribe to the Steve banford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available along with my weekly golf betting show if you are listening or watching I I never really know what to say when uh if you are listening to this podcast on YouTube please please press that like button now you guys as listeners power this podcast so we need your five star reviews on Apple podcast please keep them coming as ever for those of you who leave a review I read them out at the star of future show leave your name and where you are in the review this one’s brilliant it’s entitled Tyler from Phoenix Arizona so well done for that Tyler we know where you are five stars here’s a five-star review from the states listen to the show constantly and use all the free tools for my betting and DFS lineups it is very difficult for me to get DP well to a stats an ability to model but with the golf betting system website I’ve been cleaning up at DraftKings DFS Stateside on the small single entry DP World Tour entries have a good one chaps thanks for the website and the show that’s Tyler Phoenix Arizona brilliant stuff well thanks Tyler and well done on your DFS um performance of late that that sounds really positive that you’re getting some uh some success out of the DP world I do I do play the DP world runs myself but um yeah clearly not having as much success as you which uh tells a story you’re going to have to get some tips from Tyler on how to use your your tools Paul yeah it I just keep throwing these mad long shots in there that Mr cart and torpedo the team that doesn’t really help I I can I can identify with throwing the Mad long shots into things uh keep those reviews coming very very important helps with our rankings in podcast charts so if you could spare five uh or five wait be five minutes 2 minutes just to write a review give us five stars that’ be much appreciated and don’t forget the five Subs five star button on Spotify right Barry I’m going to come to you first talking through last week we got two challenging I’d say tournaments this week to go through but let’s quickly talk about last week I’m going to come to you in terms of the victory the 25th victory for Rory maroy on the PJ tour and the third victory for Shane Larry in the team event at New Orleans can you just take us through for a couple of minutes what you saw on Sunday I I thought it was I thought thought Sunday was brilliant to watch the forsome element of this um of the zero classic was just fascinating watching that extra element of pressure on the pros heads um with their partner and play or you know playing with a partner and knowing the consequences of shots and forsome so I I really enjoyed watching the tournament I didn’t have a single bet on it and uh got the outcome that we you know that I wanted to see was Larry mroy winning um it was it was the T it was the win for Shane that we’ve been feeling that was coming but maybe not in the tournament we thought it would um we kind of thought his form was good enough to go grab a win turns out you just needed to pair up at one of the best golfers of this generation to do so yeah exactly which is a pretty good strategy on his part but you know same for Rory because you know you’re not going to get to that total of scoring uh without playing well together and uh they did it it it was so weird on Sunday I was I was tempted to have a bet and I went no just leave it you know just enjoy watching it um I didn’t even look at what Larry and mroy would have been I’m sure shortish but whatever it felt like they would get it done but it looked at so many stages during the day or during the evening that they wouldn’t so it kind of made it extra intriguing um had loads of twists and turns and I loved it and would be totally fine with if there was another team event on the calendar like this just just just to change the the status quo of stroke play every week I always have TP Louisiana I know clearly it’s not in Florida but I I always have it um when I actually take these results and put them into our metrics that Paul and I pull together I always um rate it as a Florida Golf Course and there you’ve got Shane Larry who’s got a fantastic Florida golf course record and Rory maroy that’s won at PJ National he’s one the players literally taking that out so it kind of follows that Trend lots of water everywhere Bermuda open so it kind of makes sense kind of makes sense that’s his 25th Victory on the p J T take away Tiger Woods in terms of regular PJ T performers he’s the most well he’s won the most PJ tour events of the current crop of players he now I think it’s now DJ has clearly gone to uh live DJ’s on 24 career victories Rory now on 25 I don’t care what anyone says that is some Milestone yeah good go clearly you tweet something out about that and within two minutes you get a reply yeah but he’d give them all back if he could get another major kind of comment but to win 25 times on the premier tour in the in the world you’ve got to be a very very very good player um do you classify that Barry because you know do you classify that as a win then for maroy and lar you we’ve had this discussion weren’t we having it last week about um is this a real Victory on the PJ sir why not like I don’t want to stand here and make I don’t but there’s I just don’t see the point in standing here and arguing that it isn’t CU it is yeah I exactly go to the rules you could you could argue that like a week where the field is much weakened versus a a like a deeper field you know does that win have any less value yeah true so I think it’s just about if you want to look at it from a different perspective it’s like The Prestige of the event that you win some will be more memorable than others so let’s say winning a Quail Hollow would be a more prestigious win than winning at the zero classic in a team event so and I think that’s the the debate you could have but I mean if it’s a win or not no it’s a win like just and let’s get on with it you don’t take the Premier League table at the end of the season do you go well actually you beat Burnley you beat ship they don’t really count so we’re going to take those points off you yeah yeah I get you there was an interesting tweet from somebody got on about Tiger’s win total of 82 not something like not counting team events and Sam Sam sneeds counting or it was it was all over the place but just yeah I it is what it is it’s a win and can you tell me that like Rory and Shane aren’t going to celebrate it like it was it is a win yeah they will will they take the confidence from it as if it was a solo win yeah they will so if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s probably a duck y it’s that confidence Point Barry I think they both can take that forward and uh if that helps them to progress over the rest of this season then um it served that purpose from a mental perspective two points for two points to just take out uh what price Rory at Quil Hollow next week haven’t heard anything about Scotty sheffer’s baby either so it’s is Scotty going to be in the field who knows it’s all up in the air so what price Rory at qu Hollow next week after that Victory and just on that Quail Hollow angle uh you’ve got these Aon next 10 and Aon swing five tables that run in the background at the moment the Aon swing five sees Billy hell he’s going to be playing Chad Ray me Wesley Bryan Martin trainer after last week and Kevin TW those are the five that they’re going to add to that field uh Mark hubard Ryan brem in sixth and seventh positions with Nikia so some of those players will be in the Quail Hollow event next week if the Aon swing 10 and swing five are such a key part of what they’re trying to push on the PGA tour why do I have to scroll to the very bottom of their homepage to see them at all there’s no mention of them until you get to the very bottom indeed and it’s not really explained very well because if you’re in that Aon next 10 and you’ve already won a tournament my understanding is that you probably play anyway cuz I just take Nick Dunlap he’s played in all of them which would suggest that Winners Get to the field as well so does that mean that Thomas dietry I think you have to be in the 10 so there even though that you’ve got winners in there like nap and axe Bara I think Thomas dietry in 12th wouldn’t qualify because he hasn’t managed to get into the top 10 you following me yeah Theus the 10 can get chewed up throughout the season yeah it’s all very confusing and then of course on Monday around about 5:00 in the afternoon you get the tweet that says oh we’ve had sponsors exemptions for all of these players that we want to throw in that haven’t managed to [Music] qualify messy it is messy good idea in theory poorly executed yeah or poor poorly poorly uh explained and put out there and yeah if you’re going to put these things in place they need to be explained in detail and they also need to be updated on time in real time I would suggest y talking about Messi Paul sorry about this as a segue he was a bit of a messy Sunday for you at uh the isps Handa Championship last week where you had I hate when this happens absolutely breaks you don’t it You’ got two players in the last two groups and you end up with absolutely nothing from an eway perspective let alone the win unlucky very unlucky two players in the last group St yeah I’m not sure is probably the polite way to describe it isn’t it um yeah I Yanik Paul was the the big hope really because you know he was the shorter price of the the pair that I had in the mix and um he was up there right from the very start he led after the first and the second round second going into Sunday after Casey Jarvis put himself into pole position but then howong Lee 100 to one he got into the mix as well shot 64 on Saturday got him into the final group yeah some really high hopes going into Sunday but NE neither of them made a bird e for the entire Sunday they they both went birdie free on Sunday combined 80 apart and neither of them even placed they wen’t even close to placing in the end which from a position where you’re thinking well I’ve got two of the three here that are most likely to win I’ve got the favorite heading into Sunday um you know let’s let’s have a let’s have a su Monday and yeah didn’t happen so yeah we uh we move on we push it to one side and uh we hope that the next Sunday where there’s a player or two in the mix the uh the golfing gods are a little kinder to our bets I hate having if I’ve got two bets in the running on Sunday I really dislike having the two of them playing together yeah I get that it feels like it always goes wrong because the of them both just like going on a run are a lot lower than them both yeah just crumbling you you can get a negative vibe in a pairing or a three ball can’t you and there was a massive negative vibe in that entire three ball cuz Casey Jarvis who was leading um you know collapsed as well there there was absolutely nothing from the three of them it was really really poor and uh yeah UT suawa came through with a 60 three to win at 125 to1 so if you managed to pluck him out before the event then uh well done to you throwing you under the bus pole what does that mean for him does he get DP world to a status now is he part of the race to Dubai is it is it a leg up the the co-sanctioned events um will get a status for the rest of that season and the season after as I understand it so excellent yeah he he he’ll have a he’ll have a category that will entitle him to play DP tour events should he choose to do it and I’m sure you know players that have aspirations to to move on up through the world system we we’ll take that opportunity and and and run with it why not why wouldn’t you we’ve got to say the Japanese tour as a as a whole has taken the DP World T seriously as a route into bigger and better things to cross then over to the PJ T so it’s it’s a route that they use and it’s a route that they’re using very well you got to say there’s a great there’s a great crop of Japanese players isn’t it Talent yeah yeah it’s they’re coming through they’re winning these these events with some regularity now and uh yeah it’s the frustration is you don’t often know and particular with a player like Kat surwa you don’t know enough about his game to really try and match him up if you if you managed to pluck him out it’ have been on a little bit of current current form or Japanese form in the past and um you know keep your fingers crossed and yeah sometimes it happens sometimes they just uh disappear and miss the cut Without a Trace but um yeah I I saw a few you know enough batting slips flying about with with him on there to suggest that a number of people have taken a chance on him so as I say Well done great winning trophy they have to put it on their head unbelievable so good what a what a trophy do do you get like a um like a a statue or a a body cast from like one of your favorite movies or something and then put the trophy on that like in your house or you like a stor Storm Trooper or something I don’t know um such a unique trophy there are some odd ones was it the trophy and where they used to give you a knife that was amazing as well yeah that’s mainly our players in contention on Sunday yeah sadly uh just want to get out there this weekend after the golf completes on Sunday is the cut off for the PGA Championship top 100 so might be worth having a little look at Players sub 100 or around that 100 Mark in terms of a motivation perspective so that’s just an angle we have two events of course they are as I said at the top of the show um tricky events the first one is the newly entitled well I mean we got used to this for well I think ever since we did um golf betting pool 15 years it was sponsored by AT&T it was yeah Jordan spe’s uh sponsorship deal mhm uh they are now focusing solely on the money the additional money they have to raise to hold a signature event at Pebble Beach which shows you the jump that must have been required and CJ have come in now we’ve clearly the CJ cup has been part of the PJ 2 and half for quite a while I’m trying to think what 2018 something like that 2018 2019 so yeah it was just pre-co wasn’t it exactly um played at nine Bridges then they had to play in California for a couple of years with covid so they’re still being active in golf sponsorship they’re a logistics company sponsor most of the South Korean players Direct I think all of them bar Tom Kim who now has Nike sponsorship rather than CJ they are now sponsoring so the CJ cup Byron Nelson very C very catchy as ever on the PJ tour it’s played at TPC Craig Ranch in mckin Dallas Texas and the field includes of course homeboy Jordan SPI who as I always say at this tournament each and every year absolutely focused and dedicated on winning a Byron Nelson so he can do the uh the Texas Grand Slam he’s already won the Valero Texas open he’s won the event at Colonial this would be another leg in that grand slam that would leave him with Houston only you got zalatoris Tom K of course and all the the good South Koreans with defending Champion Jason day in the event as well now in terms of best book maker for this CJ cup Byron Nelson we’re highlighting William Hill who’ve gone eight places each way at F50 odds of the place on their Nelson default Market Great Value if you want to maximize your opportunity of a return William Hill as we record this podcast our extended Market best odds on Jordan SP he standout 16 to1 with William Hill eight places each way Jason day Wills alores Adam Scotts Jim Tom Kim and how about Jake nap 100 to one with William Hill eight places each way he’s 70 to one with Paddy Power eight places each way if you’re 18 plus and do not have a William Hill account you can find details of their current bet10 get30 in fre bets new customer promotion plus a link through to that very offer with T’s and C’s in this podcast description I managed to get a few away on William Hill once they decided to come out on Monday they were quite late to the party but they had a couple of decent prices that I really did like eight places each way right this golf course Craig granch Parkland I categorize it as Resort level scoring the reason being that it’s the it was it’s been so far the fifth the fourth and the sixth easiest courses on the PGA t uh it’s got a Texas vibe to it clearly which means lots of um crazy weather and that looks the case this week I’m classicizing it also as medium length golf course so you will find that on our predictor model it’s the medium length um variable it’s a par 71 length 7,414 yards water in play on 13 of the 18 holes Agronomy we’ve actually got a change chaps a change in Agronomy can you believe it there’s no PO trivialist overseed this week we’ve got Cavalier zoa grass on the fairways we’ve got Bermuda grass rough which they’ve actually grown out an extra quart of an inch this year around 2 and 3/4 in in length the greens are 6,778 sare ft that is a very anal average number they feature bent grass putting surfaces so only the second bent grass tournament on the pga2 so far in 2024 May throw up some different players if you’re looking for that Zer grass angle and I don’t suggest it’s a bad one courses with Zia need to bear this in mind potentially with the PJ championship in a couple of weeks as well East Lake the Tour Championship narino Country Club where they play the zoo in Japan that is of course uh zoa and Bentgrass together so that’s a good angle you’ve also got TPC Southwind where they play the St Jude champ Championship these days East Lake and Southwind of course Bermuda grass greens the only the real Clarity there is narino where they do play zoa grass Fairways and bent grass greens even though it’s in Japan it’s just I find this tournament when you’ve got KH Lee winning twice and then Jason day popping in it’s difficult to kind of find narratives that hold true yeah get that um what what I got to was a situation with this golf course where if you look at how all three of those guys won this tournament it’s a very very even Strokes game split not kind of what you tend to see a lot of on the PJ tour so decent off the te but not not bombers so I’ll give you an example Jason day gr gained 0.9 of a stroke off the te each round and KH Lee gained 6 and4 on both of his wins so you’ve got to be gaining off the T neutrality off the t is no good and you can’t be losing off the T um approach play is absolutely critical uh that ranks out across the three Champions as fourth in of those that made the cut so your your iron play has got to be crisp amazingly enough all three of well the three previous winners even though it’s two players none of them showed absolutely anything leading into the tournament with their approach play so that even adds more Intrigue into it you can’t even say oh but actually it was the top five of my rolling it was nothing there was nothing in there at all around the green is something to look at as well this week um it’s more prominent than it usually is I think it’s the kind of course where you get chip-ins and the like so Strokes going around the green average rank of 22 of those that made the cut Tia green three putting 17 so you’ve got to have a half decent patter as well see what I mean it’s a very all round if you actually look at the real numbers I’ll use Heritage in example where they played the harbort town a few weeks ago uh Scotty Sheffer as we know won that with a neutral putter didn’t gain anything on the on the greens and that kind of followed what we saw statistically where 80% of The Strokes gained witha green only 20 on the greens this one it’s 74% teer green 26% on the green so you’ve got to have a decent week on the pting surfaces just to throw that into context Jason day gained s of a stroke with a putter will um KH Lee the second time gained almost a stroke with the Putter and the first time he won he won with gaining 1.12 Strokes per round with the putter so just throwing this out there that to me suggests that someone like a will zuris can’t win this because the times that will gains over a stroke putting on the greens are rare and they tend to be at Majors or on tournaments where it isn’t a birdie Fest it’s where like eight under WIS yeah so we need players that can compile scores and patwell through a mix of the whole gamut from te to green and with the putter so team no put won’t get the job done this week you’ve got to have someone that’s gaining approaching a stroke per round with a putter so yeah it’s a tricky tricky test to find the winner I think um I’m trying to think of other angles um worthy of note Australians do play well in Texas we know that you’ve just got to look at Adam Scott’s record you’ve got to look at Jason day’s record um I’m trying to think of the other guy who’s the other Australian that won twice oh Ste is it Steven broit broad Brown B yeah balich he won twice in Texas Steven balich so they do Australians do have a good record when it gets wacky down here cuz also you got Brent GR screens in the main well you have at this tournament and at Colonial which we know that Australians do well with those bent grass conditions now just to put out there I can see a draw by us unfortunately I’m looking at wind finder out now and this weather has been changing since I started looking at it on Sunday um I’ll start with Thursday I’m seeing 70% chance of rain from 2 a.m. and that doesn’t decrease to anything sub 70% until 11 a.m. and that whole period includes electrical activity so I think you know you might have a situation where Thursday morning is a wash out and Thursday starters go out from lunchtime or early afternoon On th Thursday so you may find a situation I’m pres this is all based on the weather forecast that I’m seeing in the UK um you might get a situation here where the PM starters don’t actually hit the course until Friday morning and that concerns me because the wind on Thursday is gusting over 20 mes hour all day with the rain and then Friday morning it appears to have disappeared pretty much completely and you’re getting single digit wind gusts and if they’re playing all day which they could be of course because they’re going to be the PM will be paying AM and PM that Friday is looking very very quiet and it’s going to be a very soft golf course so there could potentially be a very significant PM a. bias on the waves this week just bear that in mind keep looking at the weather forecast that in mind if you haven’t placed any bets bear that in mind if you’re building DK teams wouldn’t be a bad week to have some dedicated wave splits that doesn’t necessarily mean it all has to be PM you might find it all goes you we’ve seen this before as well at the players and stuff all of a sudden the weather twists so just get get teams that might you might put teams in both P p.m. and am just to cover that off weather is going to have a factor this week undoubtedly yeah this has potential for a Monday finish or a 54 hole finish serious there’s weather going on here yeah I think there’s even some rain in the forecast for Friday morning but it’s very early so that’ll give that course an extra dousing for the guys going out on a quiet weather day on Friday but yeah there there’s there’s rain potentially across all four days and you know being in Texas um it does tend to have thunderstorm properties attached to it yeah that’ be interesting wouldn’t it Paul if it goes to a Monday finish and they’re still sorting out these a on 10 a on five and we’re going to throw a few additional sponsors exemptions in there as well I’m not sure that um interesting is the word that I use Steve but yeah it could turn to a complete [ __ ] show yeah let’s hope not let’s hope not let’s hope not I’ve selected five for this week so my a my UMO on this was drivers that hit the ball good from off the tea but aren’t necessarily bombers so I want a level of accuracy in there and I also when I’ve looked at my Strokes gain stats of previous winners if you’ve got a guy there that’s actually had a very strong putting performance recently that did um that did go across minw Le second Victory and Jason day’s Victory last year or just someone that’s actually striping the ball really well and you think that this lowc scoring event is going to suit them cuz even when it’s Gust in 20 mph here they’re they’re throwing in 64s and 65s this isn’t Like An Open Championship where the wind’s up and they’re struggling to make par I think 14 under was leading let’s just before I throw that out there uh 14 under was leading after 36 holes last year and it was gusting up to 30 m miles and out on both days that’s pretty incredible so they clearly set the course up in a very scoring friendly way I have got at the top end 25 to1 and two 45 to1 selections where are you guys just chipping in just to set my expectations um I’ve got a couple 40 to one and then I’ve got a shared one with you and Barry I think so um I’ll let you take take that away a bit further on yeah hire Bob def in in something that feels like tricky to uh thin down the field for piics uh I like to yeah I don’t like going short I never like that really in general but yeah even more so when it’s harder to kind of narrow down the field yeah I mean as we saw a few ye weeks ago it wasn’t a birdie Fest that was far from the truth but even Scotty Sheffer got taken down by Stephan Jagger at the Houston open so it does happen yeah um I just look at the CJ cup now I’m pretty certain just look reading stuff you will not find any reference to this on the PGA T website any reference to this on the internet that I can find but I think the South Koreans and some of the Chinese players use this as a training base which would make sense when clearly KH Le’s won here twice sewo k had a top three finish last year although it was a bit backo and I think last year from nowhere Sun Yul no shot something crazy like 12 underpar to lead round one at 150 to one these are all guys that are based in Dallas so it clearly shows that they play this golf course a lot out of competition but conversely now Tom Kim fits that because Tom Kim does live in Dallas conversely though you look at South korean’s finishes in the CJ cup they tend to be pretty damn poor they tend I I haven’t seen a keran win this CJ cup event sponsored event and when you actually look at I think Ben AR had a top five see would they weren’t really In the Heat of battle they tend to be backdoor finishes so whether that’s a mental thing a media thing or whatever that is the one I did Fancy from the Asian subcontinent and has Korean Heritage but is Australian is minwu Lee now one thing about minwoo is he hits the ball a long way I’ll get you that but he’s also Arrow straight and that works everywhere his driving this season is fantastic and then you just look at minw Le’s record four professional wins and these are the winning scores 19 under 18 under 30 under maau 20 under and I think that 20 under Mark won’t be a million miles away this week also you look at his record there’s a lot of good performances on bent grass greens and I also referenced looking into his history a Junior Amateur victory in Tennessee on a golf course that featured zoa grass Fairways and B grass greens so I think Min W Lee this week who’s his numbers at um Augusta last time out were pretty crazy fourth for strokes g off the tea he was second for total driving 12th for Greens in regulation first for ball striking first for bow striking at the Masters minwu the one thing that he hasn’t been doing so far on the PJ tour is putting well but I think this move to B grass can only be positive for him I think he’s more of a b grass player than he is a Bermuda grass player so I’m on Mino Lee I took the full 10 places available with coral 25 to one two places each way on minwoo Lee now did I hear you say Paul you had a 40 to1 chance yeah well it was 40 to1 yesterday when I backed him yeah good him um you mentioned him two or three times actually which is quite encouraging in the context of this tournament um Tom Kim I thought 40 to1 yesterday about Tom Kim when I’m seeing a number of players who I’m not sure I’d even put him in the same category as Tom Kim in terms of potential at far shorter prices and it’s not as if he’s playing badly 30th at the Masters um he closed with a round of 66 that was the round of the day on the Sunday 18th at the Heritage last time out fifth for strokes game putting was the number at the Heritage that got me and and given what you’ve just described in the um the Preamble there someone who’s got a good recent putting performance isn’t a bad place to start and and that’s that’s sitting there staring in the face from Tom Kim couple of five I think for Patti oh yeah fifth for strikes game p yeah yeah yeah uh couple of attempts there 17th and 34 um both of them after slow starts last time out last year he closed with 66 69 65 so it seems to me that he’s getting his head around this Craig Ranch course and he’s got a couple of wins on B Rass and uh you know as you said we’re moving to B grass greens now that could be the Catalyst for another Victory it’s been nibbled in I’m I’m not surprised because 40 to1 wasn’t well it was just too for my in my view but 30 to1 still out there and I think in you know given the relative weakness of this overall field I think that’s a that’s a decent priz I put him up last year 20 to1 eight places each way with William Hill I think that’s you know whether whether she be 20s this week or not is debatable but I I think he should certainly be in that kind of 25 to1 bracket in that kind of that kind of number there so even even the 30’s got a little bit of juice in it I think um two 45 to1 for me one might surprise people in fact both might Adam shank I think shank’s progressing towards the PJ to a victory I’ve thought that now for 12 months hasn’t come yet he’s bent grass green positive he’s played every Byron Nelson held at TPC Craig Ranch he was 15th heading into Sunday in 2021 I think he’s far far better now in the world’s top f 50 19th at the Players fifth at the Valero Texas open 12th at the Masters the last time he’s played in The Lone Star State he’s finished in the top five of both events and I’ve always had shank down he was always like a first round leader punt wasn’t he you throw him in there bit like a you always back Bo hosler first round leader in Texas don’t you Barry you mean you you say this every time we we we’ve got a PJ Tour event in Texas and you always ignore bar when he comes up with something like that he ad Adam was always one of those first round leader punts cuz you he would start well and then disappear he doesn’t do that anymore I mean to finish 12 at the Masters and we now know of course you finish top 12 he’s playing there next year yeah he’s competing now at very strong tournaments all that’s missing with shank is a win and I think just the Agronomy I think the level of scoring and the way that he’s playing at the moment he is putting very he’s he’s basically across all of my Strokes gain categories and you that’s what we were saying an allrounder good off the tea good on approaches putting nicely Shanks ticking every single box so I managed to get on shank with bet 365 each way extra eight places each way at 45 to one I’m also on this might be the one that surprises McKenzie Hughes most you know McKenzie Hughes he’s basically a poor man’s Jordan spe yeah amazing around the greens and an alicious putter the thing I like about Hughes though this year he’s making massive gains with his te green game so already this season he’s gained 40 places off the tea and he’s gained 50 places year on year tea to Green I mean those are substantial jumps but he’s still just as great around the greens and even though the putter was spotty all of a sudden two of the last three has been in the top 10 for strokes game pting he was also second DE after 36 holes last year so he’s got previous and I still think with Hughes in President’s Cup year just you know just in general with the clearly um with South Africans Australians Canadians the like they are super super motivated and I do keep thinking with McKenzie you look at um you look at the courses in the near future not many of them actually suit him at all this one kind of does so he has to make the most of the chances he gets and we know with him he can win on the tour uh 2016 Sea Island 2022 Country Club of Jackson so can go low good win player can play on soft golf courses McKenzie Hughes so Hughes shank and minu Le for me uh up to 45 to one now Barry do you want to take us through your first selection please I’ve got a feeling we’re all on board I mean I’m not going to I can’t steal your thunder ple please go in and I’ll I’ll add a few little bits and pieces to it Steve but yeah uh 9th 17th and 19th here across three TPC kraiger Ranch appearances if you look at Paul’s fantastic Strokes gained numbers which I do put in the podcast description for you guys to use listeners of those that have played this tournament more than once he sits fourth in this field for strokes gained total you won’t be surprised to hear that Jordan SP tops that number he’s actually higher than KH Le um Sheamus power I thought 60 to one I managed to get with eight places each way with William Hill was a particularly good price on Sheamus power last couple of outings I can remember I can remember him being in the Sunday last group of death with cashmir Keith Mitchell I mean we were talking earlier about bad vibes in a final Sunday group and that Keith Keith really got Sheamus power going that day um but last time out he was 12th at the Heritage and he was there or thereabouts throughout the whole tournament there you go I’ll hand it over to you Baron he digging into uh little bit of other stats his approach game is is excellent he’s in the top 40 in the field for strokes gain approach in recent rounds where is it for in last 6 months uh I’m on our uh friend’s website here bsbs golf do some nice filters of things and then he for benr pudding he is 30th so he’s 38th in approach and the last 6 months and 30th in Pudding so there’s just two two really good things that are kind of connecting there for me um he Irish as well so he’s going to get that his his off the tea game is not great at the moment Steve a little bit messy it’s kind of hurting him yeah he does need to improve the he does need to impr improve the driving slightly but I don’t think he’s I don’t think he’s driving here is too bad no and it’s built into the price of bit there um there’s the intangibles in dealing with if they to deal with any play in Rain uh it looks unlikely this week because any rain seems to be coming in with electrical activity so they’ll probably be off the course but you know that wind being there he’s just got that uh just got that life lifetime of experience playing the wind yeah and uh then riding the the wave of the Irish Victory last week yep when 12 months ago 12 months ago Barry gained half a stroke off the T he gained over full stroke on approach and he gained point six of a stroke around the green that is what we need this week the trouble he had last year was he was negative with the putter if he’d have been positive with the putter he’d been right in the mix he was 19th so he clearly likes the course clearly gets on well here question you know the way we jump on this nationality winning and then extrapolate that into oh somebody from the same country will probably win the next week I don’t remember one of these uh situations converting for quite some time do you guys Maybe not immediately afterwards but the Australians are usually a good example of that happening and um I I can I can understand the logic with it the kind of the positivity in the camp and the camaraderie the you know the the the the messages between players when they W you know These Guys these guys are friends um you know more than anything and you know that that can just give you that little bit of inspiration don’t know we’ll see I’m on Sheamus as well I think you guys have nailed it I think there’s there’s a lot of good reasons to to go with him this week the only thing I’ll add to to how you’ve described it so far guys is um I remember you also being on in Barry at the WGC match play year before last which was in Texas as well and he made it all the way through to the to the quarterfinals Zone he does play well in Texas he does play well in Texas he’s actually based in Las Vegas but he plays well in Texas yeah and it’s often windy as Barry said and that that’s um that’s going to be something that does play to get to the last group at the valpar and to be right in the mix at a signature event last time out he’s got to be playing some decent golf and and his game is definitely on the rise and he’s always those two victories he’s had on the pj2 21 under and 19 under I mean that’s ballpark stuff right there he tends for me to go better on Lower scoring tracks and in events that are weaker he just seems to pop up so he’s the perfect mix for this week in my opinion I’ve got one more another guy that for me you might be interested in this one Paul because I know that you’ve you’ve you’ve been tipping up this individual for quite a period of time especially in the last last year Matty Schmid the German you look at his record DP World Tour every top 10 finish is on bent grass or bent power yeah you look at his record in the states he does tend to pop up on the lowest scoring events and this golf course does feature wide a fairway so I think he’s 120 for driving accuracy um he’s kind of long ER than standard off the T he’s aggressive off the te gives it a good whack that can work on these wider Fairways I got 100 to one with eight places each way with William Hill Matty Schmid who I think is the sore I mean this form at the moment is decent 10th 26th 17th 21 691 making all those cuts he was 26th at the Players 17th at the V bar now I would have Matty Schmid down as neither of those golf courses and he’s had top 11 finishes at both the Puerto Rico open and corales Championship so he’s in good Nick is also a very very good Putter and I’ve got him top six Strokes gained current form over the last eight weeks so you know look at that he’s the sixth best player over the last eight weeks on the PGA tour and I’m getting him 100 to one I thought that was a no-brainer bet so Matty Schmid is my final bet at 100 to one yeah I could see him see him threatening the place whether he’s got enough about him to to go and win one of these tournaments yeah I’m not not sure but yeah certainly uh certainly could give you a run for your each way place money particularly with eight places yeah I think so a good each way punt there so Schmid power Hughes shank and minw Lee for me Paul you’ve got you I know well you both have Paul you go through some of those those bigger prices you’ve got no that’s just the two for me so I’ve just gone just gone power and Tom Kim this week what about you Baron I’ve I’ve one long uh long monster Callum Taran mhm darlington’s favorite s just seeing enough in um putting little bit of approach play it’s just a little bit of a punt he can go three months and Miss every cut and then he finds his game and all of a sudden he’s literally every time you go to the leaderboard Friday afternoon Callum taran’s there or thereabouts in the top 10 and he hangs around and gets a half decent finish and once he finds the drive I mean he’s a driver isn’t he he’s a great driver of the golf ball what when the driver disappears he completely folds but once he finds confidence with the driver over the rest of the game comes back so yeah Taran I did notice him the few he’s becoming his numbers are improving so I get that right are we done in Texas Jabs yes I believe so we we’re taking a a long waited trip back to China we haven’t been over here I mean it was like the Formula 1 guys a few weeks ago they they they hadn’t raced there since 2019 so uh we’re going back for the Volvo China open this week on the DP well tour over to you po yeah as you say back on the back on the schedule after dropping off over the over the pandemic it has taken place this event um the last couple of years but that’s just been for the locals uh this year we’re back to a fully fledged co-sanctioned status event with a full field of 156 so yeah good to say it back on the schedule as you say uh 16 to1 Sebastian Soderberg last week’s runner up he’s the favorite for this week Tom McKibben actually he’s been nibbled in um he’s currently heading heading towards the same kind of price 16 to1 a little bit of 18s out there but generally 16s Jordan Smith 18 to one burnt vurger 22s Janik Paul 22s howong lead 25 to1 antoan rosna 30 Xander lombar 35 to1 40 to one bar those players so as you can tell from the uh from the top of the market there it’s heavily weighted towards the DP World Tour players even though we have um an awful lot of local players in the field this week around about half of the field is uh is made up by uh by Chinese players and and those who play over in the tour the tours over there in terms of bookmakers lab Brooks Coral both seven each way as standard a fifth of the odds on this event this week bet 365 bet Fred both have their e place each we options available as well so do shop about some good prices and good combinations out there this week on this event now we’re playing at Hidden Grace Golf Club over in China importantly for your research this was known as genzon Golf Club until a couple of years ago and uh that event has hosted number of events which form part of our data this week couple of China opens in the past Plus in the pre-co days we also had the shenzen international held here so um if it looks un feels familiar even if the name doesn’t and that’s because we have seen it here before it’s a 7000 so good buba Watson used to fly over every year to play this golf course he must have loved it either that or he was getting uh getting a few few sponge in the back pocket yeah a little little bit of appearance money yeah it’s we did used to get a get a few players pop over for this over the years and I can see why it’s a it’s it’s a it looks like a nice course to play it’s a good scorable course 7,147 yard pass 72 it is a resort course first and foremost there’s water in play in a number of the holes but the fairways are pretty generous the par FS are all getable it’s three sub 380 yard par fours as well paspalum from Tea Green it’s birdies and Eagles the order of the day in normal conditions and looking at the forecast um I think the weather’s going to help the scoring as well too there’s rain expected on Wednesday um the course is already pretty soft but there’s pretty heavy rain expected on Wednesday so that’s going to soften and already soft course more showers possible throughout the tournament days as well um whether that’s going to impact whether there’s going to be some interruptions hopefully not um I really don’t want to see this spill over onto Monday and it’ be a shame if both events did that but um yeah there’s scope for there to be some uh some challenging conditions at various points a little bit of electrical activity outside of that um the light winds temperatures up to around 80 fahit should encourage some particularly good scoring I think so um yeah we’ll see how it pans out it’s certainly going to be soft I can’t see any other way that they’re going to turn up on Thursday um when they start playing again there could be some some delays first thing on Thursday but we’ll see but yeah I can’t see anything other than a soft course to present the players with this week now we’ve got eight events uh that are of Interest this week and they’re the ones that um are featured on this week’s stats Pages um and as I say these all they’ve all been played here at Hidden Grace or genzon as it was known at the time go back to 2014 the first event that we had that was at European tour level at the time and was the China open Alex Levy won that at 19 under the year after we had the shenzen international which was won by kedc afre Barr at 12 under suing Lee won the same event 16 under the year after burnt vburger 16 under in 2017 little bit of a break and then we had the China open again hell here moiko Konan won at 20 under so fairly consistent numbers in that kind of mid to high teams unless conditions are particularly challenging we do have three events held since then um all on the local tour that was 2020 hulin Zang won at 19 under 2021 Jin xang won at eight under and then last year saret suat won at 19 under so again some consistency there I think in a fairly typical renewal where it’s soft and calm 20 under is the kind of number you should be aiming for and I think looking at the forecast this week that’s exactly where we should be pitching our thoughts for this week’s event and like last week we do have some basic stats that’s all we have there’s no Strokes gain data no Strokes gain history for this event if you look at driving accuracy across the piece then Fairways seem to be pretty easy to find the driving ACC stats are pretty high across the whole Fields we’ve played here in the past the order of the day seems to be to maximize um wi and Regulation and find a way to putt well on these greens par five scoring as well um and I think that’s pretty much a given on a relatively short par 72 with four midlength par fives par five scoring is absolutely critical typically the winner needs to be double figures under paath for the 16 looks that they get at these long holes during the course of the four days and the only other thing to really grab from this is we have had eight eight different events here the course form seems to be pretty unimportant there’s nothing much to shout about whatsoever from the players who’ve done well here the first four winners that I read through all of them were making the debula um here when they played uh last year’s winner was making his debut 2021 winner Jin xang he came here having missed the cut on six consecutive attempts and then one so um you’d have done particularly well to have plucked him out based on anything logical there that particular week only Miko Konan um had any semblance of course form coming into that and even that was a bit patchy 39th 24th 39th from three attempts here prior to his victory back in back in 2019 so yeah I don’t get hung up on the course form um I think if you’re going to get to 20 under you need to be coming in with some fairly decent um weeks in recent times where you’ve U you’ve played well you’ve scored well in the par FES you’ve made plenty of birdies and that’s kind of where I’ve uh where I’ve put my team together this week how I’ve started to form it and at the top soderberg’s chance is pretty obvious he’s runner up last week he was runner up in uh India the time before so he’s coming in off the back of a couple of second place finishes bit lowest scoring this week I don’t think that necessarily suits him personally Tom mckibbin been popular in the market um puted better last week um and that does make um make him appeal a little bit for this week but for me he can blow hot and cold with a Putter and if he has a cold week with a putter he’s not going to win he’s got to keep that flat stick hot and that isn’t a given for Tom mckibbin Yanick Paul hon Lee both tempt him but they’re both on the naughty step for me this week I can’t I can’t go near them after after what they put me through on Sunday I suspect one of them wins if if you got any sense guys you you’ll back Yanik Paul or Hong Le or both and just uh just snare the Victory and the one I’ve backed at the top or near the top not right at the top is antoan Rosner at 30 to1 now if you look through rosner’s uh history he shot 25 under to win the golf in Dubai championship in late 2020 so we know he can go low he also won the katar Masters and macius open um in the next couple of years both of them Fe feing paspalum grass and I think this is the kind of course where I think he can go well on what will be his debut here he averages 306 off the T 13th for par five scoring which I think could be a critical stat as I’ve said this week eighth for strokes game approach 24th for strokes game putting I think antoan rosner’s got all of the raw ingredients to go well this week over in China also think Daniel hilia goes well this week I took 45 to1 yesterday and there’s a little bit of 50s out there if you’re happy to take the basic each way terms but I took 45s yesterday now Helia he’s got six wins at lower levels um and then eventually broke through to win last year’s British Masters he came into that um kind of telegraphed his win he came in with a fifth of the km km open a few weeks before and then was third in Germany the week in immediately prior to winning at the Belfy and I think this you know looking at looking at his history he may well be that kind of player who does progress to a win who does build up to him which which makes last week’s 11th Place finish quite interesting I think he had a pretty indifferent run of results up until that point but then 11th last week was um a vast Improvement and again statistically raw statistics for the season he fits nicely I think 11th for driving distance fifth for green in regulation seventh for strokes game putting last week found a bit of form with a Putter and I think that could be a an interesting and useful Point heading into this he also made the most birdies in the field last week in Japan he made 22 birdies and beating even those guys at the very top of the market I think Daniel hiler goes close to winning a [Music] second DP World Tour title this week similar price also back to Alexander Levy now it’s no surprise really that I was going to pick him you know one of my favorite players coming back to a course where he’s won before he opened at 60 to1 yesterday in some places now that for me was far far far too long 40 to1 best price now that’s bit more like what you’d expect 33 40 to1 that kind of number I think is where he should have been pitched from the outset so those 60 to1 quotes early doors were just playing wrong now Levy lost his card after 11 years uh have been on of having been on tour so he’s now having to play at a lower level which I don’t think is quite right for him he’s he’s far better than that and a fit healthy player who’s playing well I think this is a great chance for for Levy to regain his card five wins on tour two of them were China opens one of them was here at genzon as it was called at the time back in 2014 as I said earlier and also won a few years later at top win another China open now you also won the um weather affected uh Portugal Masters remember that one was cut down to two days because it was so so wet and so poor in terms of the weather also won in Germany in the three uh round Affair 54 hole Affair so he’s well of well attuned to uh to playing when the conditions are particularly soft he does love to to attack a soft course Alex Levy and uh he’s coming into this playing well I know it’s all been at a lower level but seventh and fourth in the Indian tour last month second in Abu Dhabi at the um on the challenge tour a couple of weeks back and then ninth last week in the Middle East again on the challenge tour made 14 under scored 14 under on the par FES last week on The Challenge tour so he’s finding some scoring prowess on those long holes right now and I think that sets him in great stead for this week and of course he should well we we know he loves it but um one that he can again come back with some positive vibes and and go well on I think last one um Ian cantero GES at 100 to one or Evan cantero on some of the bookies lists depending where you go and one of these upand cominging players Spaniard um really impressed of late this is his second attempt on tour he had to go back in 2019 did have a great deal of success back then um when he had his first stab at the tour making a better fist of it this time around in 2024 started poor lead for the season six straight Miss Cuts but then seems to had a bit of a step change since Kenya he finished 23rd there more recently sixth at the Johnson work wear open third last week in Japan and that was despite a slow start where he was sitting the wrong side of the cut line after the first round drives it long 10 10 on tour for driving distance first on tour for Eagles as well first for strokes g off the te last week back at that South African event where he finished sixth he was first for strokes game putting there’s a lot to like when you dig into the numbers of Ian cantero so 100 to one I’m quite happy to uh give him an each weight stab to see if he can uh continue his good recent form but that’s all I’ve gone for four for me this week Ian canero Alex Levy Daniel hilia and anine Rosner now Barry you going to back how Tong Le just to just to wind me up no no he’s as reliable as I am at the golf course so uh I I actually don’t have any bats at the moment kind of pass it over to Steve still doing a bit of research little bit lost hard to hard to figure out there’s a lot of unknowns in this field which does um does does make it a bit more of a challenge and yeah as I said um when I went through the market at the top the market is so heavily skewed towards the DP World Tour players and as it was to La last week B borrow a couple and then you still had a local come through and and win last week which was u a bit of a challenge one one I was sort of contemplating is Darius VRE M like wintering Kenya back in February it’s had a few weeks off I don’t know why but just that that like recent win and decent price seems to just pop yeah he’s he quickly drifted back out in terms of price following that wind didn’t he um yeah I don’t know it’s um yeah I can’t say it was one that I particularly um fancied for this but um NE never can quite tell particularly on courses where is not a great deal of course history for some of the players here just thought like his STS for the season 11th and greens in regulation just not a bad Baseline stat to work with yeah decent around the greens as well DVD what about you you think what do you think the key is this week Paul what’s the what’s the key stat what’s the key number that we need I power five scoring if I was to start start with just one number I think that’d be the one I think you’ve got to hit long enough to and and long enough and straight enough on the on the scoring holes to give yourself a chance so if you’re finding the fairways on the par fives 320 yards down I think you’re you’re going to give yourself a great opportunity to to compile a score interesting particularly when it’s soft it’s looking at the forecast it’s going to be it’s going to be spping wet and you know hence the reason I’ve gone down the Alex Levy route because that’s exactly his MO the one I the one I haven’t backed recently I might I might have to stick with uh my friend Co finished 11th last week in uh in Japan he played quite well yeah um I was looking forward to back backing a Affy Barra who was second for t to Green last week and hideously negative with the poter but um he’s clearly not in the field so I’m going to have a bit of jun won Co I am seeing 80 to one available the one also that interests me just look literally using our predictor model and looking at par five performance fifth place Casey Jarvis now clearly Casey played very very nicely last week apart from Sunday apart from Sunday but we’ve seen all this before he’s he’s a bit of a talented sort I know the South Africans have been talking about him for quite a while I could be brave and take 100 to one with uni bet six places each way um I’ll have think about that because there’s a massive jump down to the to the um to to the additional eway places on KY Jarvis yeah so yeah I might just throw that 100 to one uni bet six places each way Casey Jarvis a talented swort talking um Affy barrat he is the next next player in the field should there be any withdrawal withdrawals so um he has one on the course before so he were yeah if he were to find his way into the field between now and uh Wednesday night early Thursday morning when when the tournament starts then it could be one of these scenarios where he’s not even quoted and goes through and plays well which would be um a shame for the punters who might have wanted to have a dabble one him this one he he wasn’t a disaster for me last week I mean I had Co finished 11th uh KY Jarvis as you said had a disastrous Sunday finished 18th with howon uh and ay Barr he was always kind of floating around but he couldn’t make a part he was fifth for approach second for t to Green but he lost 1.3 Strokes with a potery drown yeah so if he could sneak into the field I think that’s an interesting bet yeah don’t don’t be surprised if he does it would just be whether we can actually get a price on him stars there is that us Champs is that us done for the week yeah we good I hope your bets go well gentlemen yeah best luck boys you too Boys best of luck to listeners we’ll be back next week for the Wells Fargo Championship a signature event the curtain Razer for the PJ Championship the week after see you [Music] then but everyone that you’re back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf bed system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast