2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson BEST BETS & PICKS! | The Early Wedge

Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for The 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch!

0:00 Intro
2:00 Storylines for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson
8:20 DFS Picks
14:30 First Round Leader Picks
16:30 Tournament Matchup Picks
22:30 Finishing Positions
32:20 Outright Winner Picks
36:30 Longshot Picks
40:30 LIV Golf Picks

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e
[Music]
welcome to the early wedge presented by
B MGM I am your host EC otherwise known
as Eric Cohen hey I’m back after a week
you know after Scotty Sheffer won for
the fourth time producer Jake said
you’re off I mean it’s what happens when
you put them on your no bet list at
under 10 to one how did that work out
for me we’ll talk about that no bet list
later in the show because I think I’m
gonna have some issues with something
that happened at the zerk classic we’ll
talk about that but let’s bring in the
stars of the show these are the two of
the smartest golf m in the business none
other than Patrick McDonald from CBS
Sports and the host of the early Edge
every weekday uh at at 10: am Eastern
easy for me to say one C in a Shad
gentlemen nice to be with you once again
I’m gonna start off with something since
I wasn’t here last week Patrick I’ll
start with you if you were to have your
own tournament on the PGA tour the
Patrick McDonald Invitational and it
wasn’t to be a traditional stroke play
72 hole format what would it look like
oh that’s a good question I I I like the
uh since it’s untraditional we’re going
to go team a little bit I don’t like the
four ball at the zurk classic I like the
alternate shot a like a lot more I think
the first two days we do stroke play and
then we cut it to the top 32 teams of
match play bracket style from there all
alternate shot at the C and aad
Invitational what format would you play
okay okay first of all I want to adopt
Patrick’s answer but but I don’t think I
understand the team portion of it once
you cut it down from stroke play so
advance that for me it’s all teams so
it’s uh it’s like Ridder cup four sus oh
I see what you’re saying I thought you
were saying they were individuals and
then they get teamed up after two rounds
I I like how Patrick’s doing it I like
the alternate shot component because
that really feels like a team component
and yeah I I think uh listen same answer
I think uh two days and then you pair it
down to the top 16 or whatever top top
eight if that’s how you want to play it
or top 12 with some wild card teams that
get a buy who knows but I think that’s a
that would be a really cool event all
right can I say guys that the PGA Tour
made a mistake this year because they
took away the best event of the entire
season that was a non- major to D match
play I love match I love individual
match play remember there’s there’s a me
and team so we’re we’re making this all
about you know I want everybody by
themselves I don’t want a team thing I
want a I want an individual winner I
want stroke play for the first two
rounds and then I want to take the top
16 and make it a bracket style single
elimination how hard is that what is the
PG we doing we don’t need this team
stuff all right we’re on to we’re back
to a stroke play event individual 156
player this week but then after this
week it gets fun we have the elevated
Wells Fargo next week the PGA
Championship after that and then June
has elevated uh Memorial Us open and
then Travelers after that so lot of big
money purses coming up here but this
week not so much and well Patrick you’re
saying your storyline is well I guess
this is kind of the last no fun week for
a little while right yeah I guess so I
guess you could put it that way and you
kind of hit the nail on the head with my
storyline where we’re about to get into
a really busy stretch for these top tier
guys where full field events aren’t
really too common you go to the Quail
Hollow next week and then the week
before the US Open I mean that
three-week stretch around the US Open is
memorial which is a signature event the
US Open and then The Travelers
Championship which is another signature
event so you know let’s just uh
celebrate these full field events a
little bit more because one the cut
sweat is always great on Friday the PJ
tour missed the boat in that aspect in
my opinion and two it’s always more fun
betting with 150 plus players in the
field all right but is it as fun betting
at a course that you might not know as
well seea in TPC C Ranch also one that
tends to give up a lot of birdies yeah
it should be a scoring Fest but what’s
so interesting about TPC CG ranch or any
course that you’ve only had three years
of data on is that we’re not really sure
because of a threeyear sample size like
what we need to emphasize yeah we can
look at the three years of data and come
to some conclusions but the question
becomes can you actually come to those
conclusions safely and that’s why in
this tournament I might be looking at
things or emphasizing things that other
people aren’t emphasizing I mean I know
like long iron play like everybody’s
kind kind of agree to the extent you you
like the proximity buckets everyone’s
going to agree that that there’s going
to be a lot more irons in you know in
your hand with 175 to 200 200 to 225 but
then there’s discrepancies in the market
in terms of or I should say in in in in
the shows that are happening like this
one hey is it just a second shot course
do do we need to emphasize off the T
play does driving distance matter can we
just lean on ball Strikers like Keith
Mitchell and Ben on and kind of ignore
the putter like there’s a lot around the
green being very much minimized but
maybe that comes into play because
there’s weather there’s a lot of
different narratives you can spin for
TPC Craig Ranch and frankly some of them
are going to be very right and some of
them probably going to be very wrong so
I think this is a very interesting
tournament all right the one thing about
this tournament that is also interesting
to me is Jordan Speed is it make or
break time for him he’s the best player
in the field the highest ranked uh
golfer in the world in the field I think
he’s number 20 right now and I I don’t
think we’re going to see another
tournament for a long time where Jordan
Speed is the number one oddsmakers
choice heading into the tournament so
Jordan you can’t win this week is it
time to add you to my don’t bet list
just I’m just saying I I I think I don’t
think he’s going to to spoiler alert
he’s not going to be uh on my on my list
but at some point when you’re the best
player in the field really by far will
zator has pulled out today so outside of
Jordan I mean sew Kim is there anybody
on paper that can match Jordan spe’s
career accomplishments in this field the
answer is probably not so I I don’t know
that that’s the maker break for me
whether Taylor brings up a good point
whether this week should be a factor as
well uh Patrick do you have any insight
on that Thursday I guess some some rain
and th I don’t do you know see you
Patrick anybody got anything on on
weather this week yeah I mean I’ll step
in here I mean first of all it’s ever
changing so I mean there’s no definitive
statements we can make right now but it
looks like a lot of rain is coming
Thursday morning before they even start
Play and going into like Thursday
morning when you’re supposed to start
play so I don’t know the extent of the
rain in terms of whether it’s actually
going to delay play or not but it very
well could and by the way there’s going
to be a lot of windy conditions and
gusts basically throughout the four days
and rain so what’s really interesting
and it’s part of the reason that in the
first round leader Market I’m only
putting out two names right now and I’ll
tweet out probably two more and I’ll put
them in my article but my article comes
out pretty soon so I might end up
tweeting out two or three more names in
the first round leader Market there’s an
interesting potential scenario where
they don’t finish Thursday like and I’m
not calling my shot here but I’m just
saying like if it does get delayed then
some of those guys that are going
Thursday afternoon and I’m speaking
about this in the DFS kind of world and
in the first round leader World some of
those guys Thursday afternoon might be
going Friday morning and then we got to
look at the conditions Friday morning
are they getting the best of it versus
what would have been happening Thursday
afternoon I think the answer to that by
the way is yes but again it’s just this
is tricky this is one of those
tournaments where in DFS for example you
may want to play both waves you may want
to play both sides of it because we’re
just not sure where the weather is going
to land in terms of when it’s going to
be difficult and when it’s not going to
be difficult all right let’s move on to
DFS as you just mentioned it and it’s
funny you know just kind of looking
ahead well I mean there’s a surprise
well not really a surprise looking at
Patrick’s list we’ll talk about that in
a second but CA we’ll start with you uh
both of you are fading the defending
champion of this event Jason day why I
mean Australians generally play well in
in Texas why are we going against Jay
day here well first of all to the extent
you think it’s a second Shot Golf Course
I mean anybody looked at Jason day’s
metrics when it comes to approach lately
he has been on fire with the putter like
that’s great and by the way I’m
emphasizing that a little bit more this
week because it is a birdie Fest because
it should be a scoring frenzy you want a
guy that’s not just going to get hot
with the putter one day you want a guy
that’s somewhat consistent with the
putter that doesn’t mean we have to rule
out guys like Keith Mitchell or Ben on
who have kind of struggled in that
department but it is certainly something
to consider so when I look at Jason day
he’s got that box checked but when I
look at DFS and like I’m looking looking
at his ownership right now it’s not
prohibitively high by any means guys
like Jordan Speed sewo Kim are going to
be higher than Jason day even with that
said though I just don’t really
appreciate the approach game and at
10,400 listen if you want to play the
game theory thing on Jason day I kind of
get that but I’m already doing that with
my picks right you see minm Lee here
nobody’s playing minm Lee at 9,400 he’s
G to be probably in that seven to 10
percent range Which is far lower than
Jason day so again do I love minm Le do
I think he’s got a safe floor the answer
is no he doesn’t have a safe floor but
he does have a ton of upside in my
opinion and because nobody’s playing him
and because DFS is a game which is
predicated on ownership I’m gonna dive
in on minwoo Lee and not really regret
it even if he completely blows up so I’m
going minwoo I’m going Thomas dietry
when I looked at the when I took an
initial assessment and I kind of threw
out around the green a little bit which
might be a mistake we’ll see what the
weather uh has in play here and I looked
at you know ball striking and and length
off the te and ability to get hot with
the Putter and consistency in that
regard Thomas dietry kind of jumped off
the page and for the record I don’t
think he’s like going to be super
Popular by any means i’ I’d be shocked
if he is so I also think he’s a guy
that’s not going to be very chalky if
you want to pair him with mmu Lee or
just have him in a different lineup the
last guy is Nate Lashley uh I never play
Nate Lashley but I do have to lean on
what I’m seeing with the metrics and
what I’m seeing with the course history
there’s a lot of people out there
that’ll say hey course history doesn’t
really matter that much and that might
be true but it’s still circumstantial
evidence at the very least as to how
Nate Lashley might play or his fit or
how comfortable he is at TPC Craig Ranch
so Nate Lashley at 7300 I think is
pretty sneaky not necessarily because
he’s going to be super low owned but I
think he’s a guy that could really be in
the top 20 potentially on Sunday and
really doing some damage uh in a good
way with your DFS lineups that’s an A+
pick in my book because you know where
Nate Lashley went to college seea
University of Arizona you are correct
that’s right bear down we’re learning
right here there you go other way
Patrick other way all right so if you
watch this show on a weekly basis you
know that one Patrick McDonald is the
president of the Grayson Sig fan club
and so yet again in the DFS section on
early wedge Grayson Sig happens to make
an appearance but y why this week at TPC
Craig Ranch do you like Mr Sig ever
heard of backto back top 10 finishes for
Grayson sigs inside come on E he’s
Catching Fire right now the iron play
has been great he played great in
corales he played great alongside
Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket chess and
Hadley at the Zurich Classic which
generally I’m not putting a ton of stock
into that event um but look it’s a nice
little added bonus for him and so I’m
Gonna Keep on riding the wave with Sig
because it looks like he’s he’s turning
a corner with with a couple of these
finishes so I like him at
7400 uh David skins I was in on last
week as well with Radford Legend Callum
Taran uh I’m going back to the Wy
veteran the 42-year-old second-year PGA
Tour player uh at 6600 he’s kind of
popped up on leaderboards super randomly
uh final group final round there at PGA
National final group final round there
at the Houston open alongside joerger
and Scotty Sheffer and the one time he
played this event a couple years back he
was 13 under at the halfway point Right
In Contention touched the top of the
leaderboard completely crumbled with a
Saturday 74 new experience under his
belt he’s playing decent enough I’m
going to take a chance on him as well M
Kenzie Hughes
8600 um I’m kind of like Allin on Matt
Hughes this week which is pretty scary
to say I know I know see it’s uh it
doesn’t feel good but we’re here uh I
know the around the green game the first
three years at this course isn’t really
too relevant but M Hughes is really good
which you wouldn’t really think about
with his distance he’s really good at
easy par fives he is one of the best
scorers on par fives at average around
4.6 something like that and TPC Craig
Ranch has all of them so he’s gonna take
advantage of the par fives his short
game’s gon to keep him in it if it gets
a little hairy we know he can putt the
lights out of the golf ball which you
need to do so I will take a chance on
mat Hughes and likea I’m out on the Azie
I’m out on the defending Champion the
iron play leaves a lot to be desired
right now if you’re watching the show
and building a DFS lineup and don’t have
Grayson Sig or at least not considering
Grayson Sig for that lineup you’re
making a mistake just want to say that
Patrick’s I mean I’m starting to get on
board at one of these days I’m gonna
include Grayson Sig somewhere in my bets
on this program just just want to point
that out because you’re every week
you’re talking him up like Stephen
joerger I I didn’t know much about
Stephen last year C was talking about
joerger and then we see his Ascension
Mexico T3 he wins in Houston now you
never know the sky’s the limit for
joerger just saying okay now let’s move
on to ca’s frls what an awesome I gotta
admit I love both of these choices uh
all right so tell us why Alex noren is a
guy that might pop up later in this
program uh on somebody’s outright card
believe it or not why do you like him to
lead after the first round oh I I
believe it and first of all just like I
said I have two guys here I’m going to
add follow me on Twitter I’m sure most
of you that are watching do you follow
probably all three of us but I have two
for now I’ll add two or three we might
even have a weather graphic here and
that’s it kind of justifies why I’m only
putting out two right now but Alex noren
listen I don’t I’m not a guy that
usually picks Alex norn but he’s really
truly good at everything especially as
it relates to the the rest of the talent
in this field it’s not like we’re
talking about the Masters right but
honestly the ball striking the the short
game it’s all there and for the record
his history here is very good too and
and I do like to see that for a first
round leader potential winner somebody
who’s been on this course is clearly
comfortable on this course and frankly
when it comes to the short game as well
and we know this about Alex noren like
the weather conditions are not going to
get in the way of his game there are
people that it’s definitely going to
affect Alex noren is not one of them so
at 45 to1 really like him and Nate
Lashley I talked about listen another
guy who has good course history here
which again I think is a little bit more
relevant not completely relevant but a
little bit more relevant when you’re
talking about a first- round leader but
I I love what he’s done recently I love
his course history and the metrc really
speak to me as well he’s not like the
classic course fit nor is Alex noren in
terms of the the outright card that I
have I mean I’m looking for guys maybe
with a little bit more distance things
of that nature but Nate Lashley has
played really well here I’m down with 80
to one coming up next C has giv out a
good one there it during the matchup
section get ready you want some plus
money see is dishing it out after we
hear from one of our
[Music]
sponsors sale GP returns to the beaches
of
Bermuda on CBS Sports
Network in this section sometimes I will
take Patrick on as far as showdowns but
this week his card is A+ in my book I’m
go A+ All Right Patrick you actually
have one that is common that we’re
together on one of them all right so
explain tell tell us why you like let’s
talk we talked about Steph jger last
segment you’re fading Tom Kim and going
with jger why do you like it I love
stevenh yger this week uh I mean he just
won in this state a month ago are you
kidding me he’s the only guy to beat
Scotty Sheffer over the last couple
months he’s a killer an absolute killer
uh but he’s got that high floor and now
he’s got this high ceiling as well super
well-rounded has a great history here
played well at the Heritage after a uh a
debut appearance at the Masters which I
assume took a lot out of him emotionally
I like that he’s coming off in off week
as well he did that before the Houston
open after a long stretch of play so
love him and then Tom K generally I
always think he’s a bit uh bit mispriced
in the market he typically from week to
week he’s the one guy can never really
get behind so I’m GNA take on joerger
here at minus 118 on at bet MGM and then
I’m going MC Hughes all in baby with the
Canadian minus 110 oh over Keith
Mitchell EC’s favorite golfer the ball
striking is obviously great for Keith
Mitchell he’s a bomber you think Wide
Open golf course big greens it should
suit his game I can’t get behind the
putter in a birdie Fest I like Keith
Mitchell where the winning score might
maybe touch 20 under at the lowest right
you want him kind of in the mid- teams I
think and meanwhile McKenzie Hughes has
proven he can take it deep and I I just
like his Putter and the way his iron
play is trending at the moment yeah that
one’s also on DraftKings as well that’s
where I found it at least all right see
you got an interesting little conundrum
here so we’re you’re you’re fading Tom
cam but then you’re playing Tom Kim can
you explain how this all works out here
so here’s how it works or doesn’t work
if Sun JM has a really good tournament
both of these likely lose so this is
really a fade of sun JM and and it’s the
only way I’m playing Ben on so I’ll
explain by the way uh Joe you ask is
this three ball on DK it is this is on
DraftKings again don’t forget there’s
tournament rch match up and there’s
already round one uh three balls so
don’t get confused make sure you click
on tournament matchups but both of these
are on DK I’ll start with Tom Kim over
Sun JM I agree with Patrick on Tom Kim I
do think he’s rounding into form a
little bit with the approach play and
with the putter uh I think he’s a pretty
good course fit maybe not as good as Sun
JM from a course fit standpoint but good
news Sun JM is just not playing very
well I mean he’s really not playing very
well so I think honestly think this
price should be like minus 135 or minus
140 I Sun JM still carries a little bit
better name recognition than Tom Kim
that’s why he’s only a slight dog but
really like Tom Kim minus 120 again if
if either of these two games are
trending into form it’s definitely Tom
Kim’s without a question but here’s the
thing Tom Patrick’s right Tom Kim is not
exactly playing lights out and with that
said I wanted to play Ben on in the
outright Market but I just couldn’t get
behind the idea of the putter being good
enough to win this tournament I if
somebody wants to take Ben on in the
outright Market I have no argument he
and Keith Mitchell were like the last
ones I was considering and I just just
ended up keeping them off my card but at
plus 170 over two guys that have been
relatively pedestrian which might even
be a compliment for them Tom Kim and Sun
JM I like Ben on at plus 170 there and
just keep in mind you don’t have to put
a full unit on this right you can put
like one third of a union unit and and
basically you know catch up to the full
unit here or a half unit however you
want to play it so this is one of those
where you’re kind of rooting for Tom Kim
and rooting against Tom Kim with these
two bets so for me I’m putting a full
unit on Tom Kim my 120 over Sun JM and
probably a half a unit on this Ben on
play all right I I now I understand
where you are going with that but we’re
just fading sunj it’s basically the the
the moral of the story here all right so
I agree 100% with Patrick who has eight
plus plays in this section uh this week
we’re fading Keith Mitchell whenever we
have a chance to fade that putter I mean
his his short game stinks uh his long
game pretty good as Patrick has said I
mean numbers uh are there but in his
last appearance here in 2022 he was t76
that’s not that’s not very good Kenzie
Hughes was T14 last year okay uh t-14 is
greater than t76 I’m good with that all
right this one’s a little risky bear
with me here Bo hustle over Ben Griffin
at even money on DraftKings so Griffin
missed the cut here last year that’s
fine but he’s kind of played pretty well
in his last four tournaments two top 20s
and the other two top 40s uh which were
in the two Texas tournaments now hosler
lives in Texas so we’re playing the the
home angle I guess home state angle here
uh he has struggled of late but he did
post a t17 here in 2022 and I wanted
something that had plus money even
though even money I guess kind of counts
so we’re gonna roll with that going with
hosle over Ben Griffin I mean this one
I’m gonna clench my teeth on but I think
Bo’s gonna show up this week uh so we’re
going to roll with it even money find
that on DraftKings all right on to the
finishing positions now I have a theme
to my finishing position bets now
Patrick do you know the sponsor of this
event is the CJ group do you know where
the CJ group is based out of of course I
mean it’s not every day that a South
Korean conglomerate is honoring one of
the legends of the game in Byron Nelson
what a match made in heaven this is so
this is the prime example of a
tournament that needed a sponsor and a
sponsor that needed a tournament and
though it doesn’t seemingly make a ton
of sense it makes a bunch of sense right
it doesn’t roll off the tongue though
I’m just saying it’s like it’s hard to
say like we need a we need a better flow
go so CJ want they were in the fall they
desperately wanted to get into the
regular season and then AT&T because
Pebble became a signature event they
pushed more money into that so they
dropped this one I think the biggest
Miss though is that CJ has like a plaque
as their trophy over the years right it
kind of looks like a uh a an ancient
scroll or something but it’s got to be a
cup right it’s got to be a cup what are
we doing here yeah yeah
and like nobody want to hang a plaque
like that’s this is why Patrick McDonald
is one of the smartest SC who knew that
they give out a plaque at the end of the
CJ cup I mean things you find out here
in early wedge all right now speaking of
things you find out see I actually
didn’t realize because I wasn’t up at 5:
am uh for the end of the RBC Heritage on
Monday what happened to Tom hogi on 18 I
just saw that he finished t19 and I
remembered that he was like flirting
with the top 10 and uh apparently
getting a
uh canle bogy on on 18 kind of hurts you
imagine if you had a top 10 BET is
anybody out there listening to the show
had have a top 10 BET on Tom hogi either
live or pre-tournament headed into the
uh RBC Heritage because if you do I I
honestly feel bad for you going back to
I was on a show with Pat Mayo earlier
this morning and he specifically
referenced that he had a top 10 ticket
on Tom hogi until the quintile buggy got
him to t18 I I’ll tell you what there
there are few things in life
that would get me to quit betting that’s
one of them I mean that Fairway is so
wide so like he he hit it out of B I
mean like he I went back and looked at
the shot tracker today and like he was
hitting shots that I would hit like he
had 200 yards in and he hit it 150 like
that’s something I would do so I mean if
I even got it that far so I I really
don’t understand how that happened but
nonetheless you’re going back to the
well with but you’re you’re being
conservative with a top 30 just in case
he gets a 10 on the last TPC Craig Ranch
right well yeah kind of maybe Tom maybe
Tom hogi needs to be uh investigated
like like jont Porter maybe he had the
over on his finishing position I
something to consider let’s see uh if
there was a if there was something big
in the market there against Tom hogi but
yeah I’m going Tom hogi T30 let’s see if
I you know listen we get to the outright
card maybe I’ve got Tom hogi there too
but I like this T30 I think it’s very
comfy if you will at minus 110 for the
record if you want to be a little bit
more risk Advanced T20 is like plus 140
plus 150 I think he’s okay there but
listen if I’m getting close to even
money on a T30 that’s the bet I’m gonna
take so I don’t think we like I’ll get
into Tom hogi a little bit later but I
think this is a really good number for a
guy that is been really good on approach
long iron well he’s been actually a
little shaky on approach lately but over
a longer period of time he’s been very
good on approach the long iron play
specifically is great and we know he can
get hot with the putter I just really
like the form he’s in in general even
though off the tea he’s not exactly
going to do a ton of damage Alex nor T20
at plus 130 again I think Alex norn is
one of those guys that’s probably going
to get some outright bets and I think
it’s deserved but I just don’t think I
see him winning this tournament I see
him potentially top tening top 15 maybe
but top 20 at plus 130 willing to
speculate there all right so my theme is
that I’m going with three South Koreans
for my finishing positions we’re GNA
start with benon who uh I believe CA
talked about in the last segment top 20
at plus 138 on bmgm the irons are
excellent but as I have in my notes the
putter has been Dreadful I mean like
really really bad uh he had a t-14 here
last year even losing Strokes while
putting as long if he could putt like
close to field average we got this I’m
just I mean the long game is fine like
Keith Mitchell like the long game is
fine it’s I don’t know how you can bet
Keith Mitchell or Ben on outright right
now with the way they’re they’re putting
they just can’t by the way KH Lee uh won
this event in 2021 and 2022 at TPC Craig
Ranch he has the best career history at
this course and I’m getting plus 200 at
bmgm for a top 20 that’s phenomenal sign
me up they don’t call him TPC Lee for a
reason and then sh Kim top 40 at plus
140 uh t13 and t36 in his last two
stroke play tournaments and he gained
nearly nine Strokes putting in San
Antonio hey I’m good with that maybe he
should teach Ben on a thing or two uh
and Keith Mitchell and then we would
have some more outrights to discuss wait
did I see the outrights correct that
somebody has Mitchell in in the next oh
we’ll we’ll talk about that uh if you
haven’t made your bets yet this week
which I I doubt that you have make sure
to do so at bmgm because new bmgm
customers can sign up today and get up
to $1,500 in bonus bets just place your
first wager of at least $10 and you will
receive up to
$1,500 instantly if your bet loses with
bonus code edge that’s Ed GE Edge coming
up next we find out who’s taken the
Keith Mitchell plunge is is there one oh
wait maybe not but we have some other
outrights to to get to here on the early
[Music]
wed the waer Europa League semi-finals
on CBS Sports Network and streaming live
on Paramount
plus so astutely in late February or
early March I put together a list of
players not to bet uh you cannot bet out
right well Keith Mitchell who I
mentioned is definitely on that list and
will remain on that list in definitely
Shane Lowry is also on this list and
wait what wait Jake Jake the Zurich
counts it’s a team event counts this guy
can’t this guy hasn’t won an individual
stroke play event in the United States
since like 2015 you cannot count Shane
Lowry and put a line through him the
rest of outside of Sheffer which is real
times four yeah that was that’s not good
outside of that it’s a great list but
Shane Lowry we got to discuss that I
mean guys do I deserve a break here that
a team event should not count Rory mroy
carried him to win to Victory I’ll say
I’ll say this I understand why people
say it counts but I think there’s Nuance
here like if I’m an attorney and I’m
arguing your case I’m saying because
Shane Lowry got carried because he
didn’t really earn that like Roy mroy
earned it I’m going to defer to him not
actually counting like the win here so
if he had played a little bit better
especially on Sunday I I I I’d be
against you on this EC but he did not
earn that win like listen I’m the
biggest wor hater ever like I fade him
every single week including last week by
the way I had a great DFS week in the
sense that the three teams I put out
there even added a fourth team they all
made the cut they all did pretty well
but I faded Rory and Shane Lowry and so
I paid for it but the the bottom line is
I don’t think you should get the uh
cross off here all right Patrick do you
agree or disagree with CA it counts got
a trophy got the winners check he didn’t
play great on Sunday but not all winners
play great on Sunday and look he hit one
of the most consequential shots as well
Rory dumped one in the Fairway bunker
off the te with an iron in hand on 16
Shane Lowry hit a pearl in there they
convert a birdie give them the leeway
where they’re able to Bogey the
difficult 17th and then Birdie the 18th
you got to give it to him you got to
give it to him I will say though I’m
very concerned for this list at Wells
Fargo for you now wind Clark and Rory at
the Wells Fargo there he goes I’m
spoiler alert I’m going with the history
no who are you concerned who are you
concerned about next week spoiler alert
I would say number three on that list is
going to win very soon the and I think
uh Klay could be coming into
something cam
so cam you can’t bet Camy young until he
at this point I’ve tried I’ve tried for
two years to bet Camy young I’m like
every time I try I did it the other week
it just didn’t work I just at some point
you just got to cut your losses when he
wins great then I can start betting him
that putter too bulky for me all right
time to give our favorite outrights
Patrick we’ll start with you you’ve got
a great Duo here starting with one
Stephen jger who’s see is the president
of the Stephen jger fan club but you’re
going with him this week yes he invited
me into the Oval Office I accept it
gladly and we’re going to go with the
German at 33 to1 he’s playing Great Golf
we just saw that he can win down the
stretch against the best player in the
world so I’m going to take him in this
field as well for all the reasons I laid
out in the matchup section McKenzie
Hughes as well I’m going all in so I got
to bet him out right at 45 to one uh T14
like you said here in in his appearance
last year uh can roll the rock really
well and I think that’s going to be very
much needed this week so those are my
two guys
all right respectable now CA you have an
interesting list we do share one as well
but Adam Scott at 25 to1 Adam Scott
hasn’t won in a while and you’re going
with him at 25 now I’m also picking a
guy that hasn’t won ever on the PGA tour
at low rods so I guess I’m not one to
talk why do you like Adam Scott this
week first of all I’m just seeing your
list for the first time and I can’t
believe anybody aside from myself is on
M mu Le so that’s actually kind of cool
that you’re you’re on that first of all
I don’t want to bet atam Scott I really
don’t like I don’t even really like this
card but I felt like I had to bet Adam
Scott by the way he’s 25 to1 at bet MGM
everywhere else he’s about 22 to1 go
ahead and take that if that’s the best
number you got but I just wanted to say
B MGM um tends to have the better
outright numbers and this one is is as
well plus 2500 listen Scott’s doing a
lot of things right like sometimes he’s
not mirroring the ball striking like
sometimes he’s great off the te and he’s
like not so great on approach and vice
versa but he’s pretty much crushing it
with the short game and and for the
record the the ball striking is pretty
good notwithstanding the fact sometimes
he has some bumps in the road the Texas
golf narrative if you want to play that
card really good his history here really
good the long iron play really good
birdy Fest birdie or better he rates out
really well there so listen I don’t ever
bet Adam Scott and I agree with the
sentiment that like Hey listen dude Adam
Scott just doesn’t win but then again
we’re looking at a field where the top
dog is Jordan spe who we’re not sure if
he’s gonna win again and see wo himim
like if there was ever a field for Adam
Scott to break through it would be this
field so I think at 25 to1 it’s a
reasonable number I’ll move on to minm
Lee give a shout out to I am thorb and
Jeff fineberg we were talking about this
earlier today nobody is on minm Lee and
I think this is one of those situations
where we might be reading the course
wrong a little bit like Min mle has some
trouble on approach sometimes but of to
see he’s a giant and for the record ball
striking he can be good he can marry the
approach with the off the te game and
the putter can get hot I think his
length is really going to benefit him
here he can do well at Birdy fests I
think 28 to1 is an interesting number I
kind of wish it was longer but to be
honest I think the market is keeping it
short I think there’s some sharp money
coming in on Min mu Lee he’s at 28 to1
at at bmgm but he’s 25 to1 everywhere
else and oh by the way Stephen joerger
this guy that we really love have you
seen the tournament matchup between Min
wle and Steph joerger on DraftKings let
me just let’s just do an exercise real
quick EC what do you think just knowing
what you know about the everybody liking
Stephen joerger and Min mui like play
the game with me with me what would you
think the matchup all four rounds
tournament matchup would be minmi versus
stevenh Jagger what’s how much is
Stephen Jagger favored by what’s the
price on him minus 130 you would think
just on in general yeah you would think
and maybe even like minus 135 because it
seems like he’s getting rightful steam
it’s minus 110 each way and it’s not
like that market just came out right
like that it’s been there so if there
was going to be this big money to attack
stevenh Jer because this is a bad line
we would have actually seen that
appreciate by now it’s still minus 110
so I think minu Lee is really sneaky not
just in DFS but in the outright Market
finally Tom hog we’ve talked about him
approach play long iron play putter all
good Thomas dietry is kind of my needle
and a Hast stack guy I got him at 45 to1
I tweeted that out Monday morning I just
think this is the type of course and oh
by the way we’ve seen him contend in
2024 twice he should probably have at
least one win under his belt so I don’t
think he’s afraid of the moment at all I
don’t think he’s afraid especially in
this field of a Sunday moment going
against who like Adam shank and Keith
Mitchell and you know Jordan Speed I
just don’t think he’s afraid of it and I
I just like what he can do at a birdie
Fest and off the tea specifically I
think and by the way you can get super
Super H the butter all right that’s a
solid list solid four pack there I’m
going with Alex noren this is a crazy
pick these odds are ridiculous uh then
again Jordan spe is like plus 1400 and
that’s ridiculous just one of those
weeks Alex noren plus 2500 consistent
finishes of late 14 straight made Cuts
okay is he the best player on the PGA
tour without a win Patrick yes or
no um no who would you put on at top of
that list off top of your head Tommy
Fleetwood
okay all right second best player that’s
a good one that’s that’s yeah that’s
fair okay second best player on on the
PGA tour without a win but why are the
odds so low what do the odds makers know
here that I that I mean everybody else
does it noren’s consistent but he only
has one top 10 all year what are we
doing here I’m still I’m buying this
guy’s gotta win at some point he’s too
talented not to mini is as C mentioned
been a lead off the te this season gain
Strokes with his driver in every event
Australian send to thrive on the bent
grass greens uh and he also in in his
four wins in his career has won birdie
Fest 19 under 18 under 30 under 20 under
we’re going to see another one in the
probably in the 20s unless the wind and
weather plays a factor over the weekend
and then of course the great Steven
joerger when he putts well he finishes
very high gain 4.3 Strokes on the greens
in Mexico T3 gained 6.4 in Houston beat
Scotty sheffler because sheffler missed
that five-footer to go to a playoff when
uh last year when he finished t11 here
gained more than four strokes with the
putter I think in Texas why not I mean
Stephen jger could this be another
breakout for him he’s a guy that you
know he and norin and mini I gotta I
gotta hit one of these it’s been a rough
year not cashed an outright on this
program Scotty Sheffer you can’t I mean
that doesn’t count uh so no I am I need
to hit something so that’s what we’re
going with I like our card this week
let’s hope it’s not one of those long
shot 200 to one weeks because then it’ll
be sick but if it is let’s find out who
the guys have with their long shot bets
all Patrick we’ll start with you what do
you got I went with
CT I know uh I know C is a big challenge
guy CT pan at a bucko five uh this guy
has not missed a cut since the beginning
of February the iron play is looking
very very good he finished T3 at a
wideopen large vant at the Mexico open
and he finished inside the top five last
year
as well so I’m going to take a flyer on
the Olympic bronze medalist wow now that
is a trivia question you could you could
give me a hundred golfers and I there’s
no way I would have guessed CT pan
winning the bronze when Xander shle who
finished second by the way I can’t even
remember Rory you will never guess it
yeah but the other Rory Rory oh Rory
satini yeah Yep by the way another U OFA
grad just want to point that out or Alum
yeah I did not know that okay UA guy
there you go all right seea speaking of
U OFA I mean the segue is right there
Nate Lashley here we go wild cats right
here uh Nate Lashley uh plus 9,000 I
mean is he gonna listen he’s probably
better in like a T20 T30 Market but I
will say he does have good history here
and the approach play has been really
good I I will say this at Zurich Classic
you know it was a partner event they to
finished 38th not great corales he got
cut but prior to that he was gaining
heavy on approach he was doing okay off
the te as well he’s not necessarily a
great putter but in these tournaments
that lack Scotty sheffler I do think
there is room especially with who we
have at the top for a Nate Lashley type
to just surprise everybody I think
there’s a lot of guys sort of in that 90
to one range I don’t really want to go
down there I want to be in the 25 to 50
to one range but I think 90 to1 I’d be
willing to speculate just a couple of
bucks this is a long shot play of long
shot plays even though it’s only 90 to
one let me just say real quick I met CT
for those of you that watch The
Challenge did he’s the best Challenger
of all time I mean it would be him and
Johnny Bananas I met him with his son I
was with my wife and we were um at
Legoland for our kids or something I
think it was Legoland in Florida and
this guy could not have been nicer like
he stopped talked to us took a picture
with us and you you know we were like
kind of like a little bit Star Struck if
I’m being honest like list listen I’ve
met a lot of celebrities I was more Star
Struck meeting C CT than Jamie Fox like
this is like a true thing and so he he
he saw it from us and he could not have
been nicer this guy is an absolute gem
uh side note for you challenge fans on
CAD Sports which is my sort of
motivational uh oriented podcast I just
did a show last month with kyland young
uh Challenge and uh Big Brother guy
alumni so uh check that out yeah I used
to be big into the CH yeah I used to be
big into of the challenge uh I haven’t
watched it actually in a few seasons but
CT is the greatest of all time
interesting that he was kind of a seemed
like he was kind of a mean guy really
mean guy back in the day so interesting
that you said how nice he is these days
good good Insight look what you find out
on the early wedge it’s not just about
golf so check out C’s podcast uh with
the latest Challenger and Big Brother
competitor who I actually don’t think I
know offand uh that I haven’t watched
the most recent Seasons so he’s new yeah
okay yeah fair fair enough all right now
look at these three that I’m giving out
here we got parlay’s Galore I’m feeling
really good about these I’m putting my
half unit whatever that Define that for
me is uh top 10 parlay look at this
norin and Min Le at plus, 1800 hello top
10 parlay Stephen Jagger KH Lee 2500 oh
this is beautiful this top 20 parlay
Adam Scott who was talked about Alex
norn McKenzie Hughes we combine all of
our picks and one at plus 1800 for top
20 and literally I put that in there and
had no idea that was how it was gonna
play out brilliant I’m telling you what
this is we’ve got a winner on this
screen I’m just of the might three for
three man you might go three for three
I’m tell I feel I like the first one I I
love these I mean I just got like the
first one as well okay all right there
you go plus 1800 let’s hammer it
Hammer yeah how about whatever yeah
whatever you want to do with that all
right time for Liv Liv is in Singapore
uh Patrick and I trying to pick a winner
again you came close last week what
happened with your boy
Louie ah man I’ll be honest I didn’t
watch it just because it was on
overnight in the morning yeah 10 10 p.m.
and I mean that’s late for me so uh now
just another runner up with Lou usas and
if he would have won I would have been
down only I don’t know like 10 grand
Lifetime on him so it would have been
nice but uh I digress we’re gonna go to
someone else this week which means maybe
you should bet Louis was Tason I’m going
with Bryson at 14 to1 I think you can
still get him at 12 to1 which I would
still play I didn’t play great last week
but let’s be honest Bryson to Shambo in
that environment is not not a good
combination he’s going to be much
quieter there in Singapore he played
well at this event last year not great
but well and he’s been playing good golf
over a long term so I think the price is
uh a little off so I’m gonna take a shot
on the big hitter okay fair enough I’m
going with Wen Neeman who by the way is
probably playing like a top five golfer
in the world right now in his last 11
events he has no lower than a T30 three
wins and nine top 10 in that span which
is wild last last year he had a T8 and
shot 66s in the last two rounds started
out with a 70 not so good and then went
6666 I think he gets his third win on
live uh this year and uh he is just he’s
killing it and he is will be a contender
in Majors for those of you who play one
and duns I think walk Neiman has to be a
consideration maybe coming up here uh in
in one of these Majors uh I just have to
see what he’s eligible for you you don’t
really know with the live guys I know
they are eight guys that are that are
going to be in the PGA Championship as
of now
um US Open who knows what that looks
like in the Open Championship so uh we
shall see all right before we go guys I
want to ask you about Jordan spe we
didn’t didn’t really talk about him he
is the he is the favorite um seea why
are you avoiding Jordan Speed is it is
he a fade is he just in a void or would
you maybe play him you know in round
let’s say in in
progress so listen I I think he’s going
to play pretty well in other words I
think he’s going to make the cut and
he’s he’s going to be a threat here and
there to like scare the top of the
leaderboard but I don’t care how good
you are in Texas or or on this course
the metrics are like pretty bad I mean
he’s not even really getting it going
with the putter the the around the green
play isn’t good at all actually uh the
approach game is pretty bad outside of
the Valero Texas open where he his ball
striking was amazing it’s just one of
those things where Jordan spe I like it
should never be 16 or 14 or even 18 to
one given the state of his game I mean
this dates back this isn’t just a few
tournaments this dates back a while now
where the approach play outside of one
or two exceptions has been like really
really bad and he’s messing up
everywhere else too it seems like I mean
the putter has been okay long term but
I’m I’m not impressed with this at all I
think he should be like 22 to one and
and at that point I’d be like ah the
experience the course history the lack
of talent in this field I’d at least
consider it but it’s a it’s a no in DFS
and it’s a no in the outright Department
all right Patrick do you disagree with
anything that CA said no not at all I
mean you look uh what is it I don’t have
it in front of me but his last seven
tournaments I think he has three miscuts
in a
disqualification and he doesn’t have a
top 10 since the Phoenix Open no he got
he got a I think he got a T10 valo
outside Val San yeah yeah um but I think
the wrist is much more concerning than
he let on originally he talked about it
at a National where it bothers him every
week and he has to play through it and
sometimes it gets better as the week
progresses but he was holding his wrist
at Augusta National at times he almost
withdrew from harbort toown because of
that wrist early in that tournament too
so I think it’s uh kind of tread lightly
you know don’t really get involved with
spe until he gets that figured out maybe
all right bar I actually didn’t realize
the injury was a concern but I’m staying
away regardless I mean these these
results lately are I tried in San
Antonio he had that three-week stretch
of courses that he excelled at San
Antonio Masters RBC Heritage and he’s
stunk uh wrist or no wrist pass just how
he’s the oddsmaker favorite uh don’t bet
him if he wins yeah I was gonna say for
the record in DFS it’s not like like
people are playing and he’s going to be
one of the top five most owned players
for sure and given that he’s also the
highest priced guy like what are we even
doing like it’s just that’s not how you
play DFS in my opinion doesn’t mean you
can’t play them if you really like
somebody that’s popular at the top of
the board but if you’re playing somebody
that has Jordan spe the state of his
game I’m not exactly sure what we’re
doing with that type of play fair enough
well it gets fun on the early wedge
coming up next week it’s the Wells Fargo
Championship and then the PGA
Championship and a bunch of other great
tournaments coming up uh in future weeks
so get ready the summer of golf is just
about to start and it’s going to be
awesome so please make sure to like this
video And subscribe to the Sportsline
page we have 82 and a half thousand
people can we get up to 100 here by the
end of the year even close even sooner
than that let’s do it so uh want to
thank producer Jake does a great job as
always for Patrick McDonald and cinga J
I am Eric Cohen as I always like to say
let’s hit it big good luck