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so hopefully we’re back now I apologize
having some some technical difficulties
I know I’m supposed to have some weather
coming in here soon I don’t think it’s
here yet but boy my uh my streaming
software is is really acting up here
more average than fast
sure but um you know it it it’s pretty
difficult to narrow down a speed
so we’re just going to be looking at
both of them as I don’t know whether
these are going to play fast or whether
these are going to play average in terms
of speed give me a second here as I
hopefully am having uh these issues
resolved so we’re going to look at bent
greens that are average or fast in speed
the past two years our top Putters on
average or fast bent
greens have been MAV mcney saying you’ll
know Taylor Montgomery Justin low Richie
rinsky Harry Hall chest and Hadley Mark
hubard David skins and sunj those are
your top Putters on average and fast
bent greens the past couple of
years all right with that we looked at
some off the te we looked at the
approach we’re going to going to clear
these filters and get set for
driving and greens and Fairways and
whatnot we’ll take a look at last year’s
leaderboard you see distance played a
decent little Factor only two players
negative in terms of distance Fairways
not so
much um you know the highest here I see
is like a 7.9 6.9 but even here at the
very top of the leaderboard Jason day
only slightly gained in Fairways seeu
Kim was you fairly you know pretty good
but nothing extraordinary same with
Terell
Hatton if we sort on this look at the
distance top 15 top 15 top 10 top 20 top
10 top 25 pretty darn good here for
distance a couple of miscuts sure but
fairly solid Fairways not so much you
have a miscut pretty darn High a couple
of you know top or you know middling to
maybe even poor finishes depending on
your definition a really bad finish from
Lucas Glover Fairways aren’t it these
Fairways are extremely wide they’re
forgiving let’s take a look at Greens
Greens could be something because these
greens even though they are easy to hit
they are pretty big so instead of maybe
greens it might be proximity but there
was something to be gained for these
greens a top 20 a top 15 a top five a
top 10 top five our winner was somewhat
high in the greens so I’m looking at
maybe distance maybe greens but not a
lot in either of them or not a lot in
the greens per se maybe a little bit in
the distance maybe a little bit if we
look at
2022 and look at the fairways and the
greens now KH Lee is never he’s not long
by any means he’s about field average
and he was the year or the second year
that he won little a lot less in terms
of distance in 2022 if we look at the
top 16 you know about half were negative
in distance if we
sort not a lot of correlation at all it
was pretty darn strong last year but not
two years ago if we look at greens
you got some cut making and some decent
correlation but nothing Elite third top
or top 20 top 15 top 20 top five F
surrounded by some poor and middling
finishes so I I don’t know I I would
think distance might play a small factor
greens might play a small
factor I’m not confident in either one
of those but it would be these two
metrics in this this page view so if
we’re going to look at distance again
we’re going to look at scoring easy
relative to par when a course is
easy who uh just hits it the furthest
who bombs it uh gives themselves the
best chance uh or or gets themselves
closest to the hole off the tea so in
the past two years when rounds have been
easy relative to par our top driving
distance players have been cam champ
Peter Quest Ben on Chris gup vit Norman
grick higo C Taran Ryan brim MJ Duffy
and Paul
barjon we can look at greens when it’s
easy we’ll take a look at greens and
long on Long courses as well so win
rounds are easy relative to par our top
greens gained players Alex noren Russell
Knox Kevin TW
Adam shank Peter Quest Aaron Ry Bo
Hustler Bryce Garnett Joel Damon and
Taylor pendri take a quick snapshot of
these 10 and we’ll move
to the long course and see if anyone
overlaps but again I don’t see a whole
lot of emphasis in here maybe a 5% in
the final mixed condition model if I had
to guess but even then I’m not terribly
confident in that so on Long courses our
top greens gained players come on
fantasy
National it’s trying top greens game
players on Long courses Joseph Bramlett
Mark Hub Kevin Yu Martin L hrk norlander
Bryce Garnett Ricky Rico Hoy lonto
Griffin Nick Hardy Matty Schmidt and Sam
Stevens so I don’t recognize any of
those 10 names from greens when it’s
easy overlapping with the greens when it
is uh on Long courses so not not
entirely sure that is the way I want to
go about
it um all right let’s remove all these
filters we’re going to go to scoring
next and pretty easy pretty simple uh
for scoring at TBC Craig Ranch you got
to go low uh Jason day his win last year
was the lowest or worst winning score at
minus 23 KH Lee got to 26 and 25 his
first two years he just got to go low
got to go low to contend here a few
Eagles around as well you see CT pan
they’re not
mandatory you see day sewu Austin necro
they didn’t uh get a lot of eagles
throughout the week but still you know
won and finished t uh T second it’s just
a lot of
birdies lot of
birdies J day Austin ER Marty do Adam
Scott look at look at this Elite
correlation here all the way down to
Sheamus power first second fifth 8th
11th e8th top 20 second top 20 just lots
and lots and lots of birdies bogey
avoidance is something too but
not to the level of the birdies game you
just you’ve got to be able to go low
here same for
2022 few Eagles from KH
Lee but 2 8th 15th 12th 3rd Fifth Fifth
17th first fifth just a lot of birdies
lots and lots of birdies you can see the
Bogies fairly strong but you have a 51st
in here couple of 51st a 32nd 38th not
nearly as correl
not nearly as
correlating so let me get this set for
the proximity very very simple very
simple we’re going to look at two
different things here we’re going to
look at opportunities gained we’re going
to look at birdies or better gained both
with this easy relative to power filter
so in the past two years in rounds that
have been easy relative to power our top
opportunities gained players have been
Alex SMY Tom hogy Joel Damon Carson
young Sun Jay Kevin U Ryan Palmer Ben on
Daniel Burger Tyson Alexander and Adam
shank definitely want to put a star next
to
sunjay and Adam shank as they are top 10
in both opportunities and birdies are
better gained when rounds have been
easy uh honorable mention to Tom hogi
second an opportunities 14th in birdies
or better but if we look at strictly
just birdies or better
gained Peter Quest Garrick higo Chan Kim
Adam shank Jordan spe sunj Taylor
Montgomery Luke list Michael Kim and
Scott piery there’s your top 10 in terms
of birdies or better gain so everything
in the
scoring um page view at Fantasy National
is going to revolve around the e
relative to power filter it’s going to
be about birdies are better going to be
about
opportunities you can you can afford a
bogey or two around here cuz there a few
of them will crop up but you’ve got to
be able to take advantage especially of
the par fives you know half a shot under
par half a shot under par almost a half
a shot under parar and the very short
par
fours you know 410 under par 310 under
par you just got to take advantage of
those
holes so we’re going to move now to
proximity so let me get that set remove
all the filters and just look at 2024
now last night we saw in the course
breakdown how
35% of the approach shots at TBC Craig
Ranch come from 200 plus this is a
combination of all of the par FS being
attackable and two plus the Bevy of long
par fours that are here at TVC Craig
Ranch so
35% of the approach shots come here from
200 plus so let’s see how much it
actually led to Upper leaderboard
success we look at last year and Jason
day pretty solid from 200 plus to be
honest pretty darn solid jday was good
SEIU Austin necro was Elite that week in
that range total procs looks like it
could be something as well but you know
really only
about three two to three players that
are really bad from 200 plus that were
up there uh in terms of an upper
leaderboard finish Terrell hat in a
minus
4.3 across four rounds that’s
essentially fielded average just
slightly
under um Sun Kang a minus 9.3 much the
same if we sort sort on the 200 plus got
some cut making nothing in terms of of
elite correlation you know middling from
Tom cim a top 25 Eric colen decki top 15
top 25 second fourth 11th but mainly
it’s the fact that the players that were
up here at the top of the leaderboard
were performing at least well maybe not
Elite some were Elite like Kevin TW and
Ryan Palmer but they were at least
performing well in
2022 KH Le’s second win look at 200 plus
the top five players here or at least
those for tie for fifth only one was
negative so it looks like to be a pretty
a a pretty big deal it does looks like a
pretty big
deal so our top
performers this calendar
year from 200
plus Bobby Mack Andrew Novak Patrick
Fishburn Tom hogy thorbjorn olison Kevin
U Keith Mitchell Patton gazy Sammy vaki
Kevin dhy and Aaron
Ry okay we’ll get this set for the part
3es I’m going to be honest with you I
don’t think there’s a lot here for the
part 3es there wasn’t uh much in terms
of the course
breakdown uh and even for the players
who have played TBC Craig Ranch well in
the three years didn’t appear to be a
lot in the par 3es Jason day a 2.1 I see
a 4.1 from Carson
young yeah I mean you got three miscuts
pretty darn high up here in terms of par
three
performance um no I mean our winner was
pretty far down you had to scroll for
him I don’t see a whole lot here in the
part 3es I just don’t so I think if we
look at 2020 two let’s take a look at
that just really quickly KH Lee par 3s
yeah just a
1.2 not a whole lot here Mis cut fairly
high cut fairly High I don’t see much
here so instead let’s take a look at par
fours we’re going to skip the par 3s
they might not be in the mixed condition
model to be honest with you these par
fours are going to contribute some 9 11
10 11 a little bit further from Stephan
joerger last year
G to have to play them well second 11th
second first eth Fifth Fifth top 15 top
20s G to have to play them well if we
look at a particular
range there’s the top 18 yeah it is the
450 to 500 I mean look there you had two
players that were it’s getting rounded
to zero but they were slightly negative
the the only other one was minus two
from weiny everybody else was positive
in that range
and it looks like it’s going to have the
highest yeah
six four
two 5 and A2 maybe even the 400 to 450
but it’s it’s only mostly in here in
these 450 to 500 par
fours looking again here cley didn’t
play the par fours nearly as well he
plays the par fivs well Muno played them
well but again it looks like it’s
majority in this
455 5th 5th 8th 12th top 25 a miscut
from Sam
Burns fairly high
but yeah a lot in that 450 to5
so on par
fors from 450 to 500 yards this calendar
year your top performers Carl Yulan Tom
hogi Max graser Eric Barnes MAV mcney
Adam shank Jordan spe chz Revy Rafael
compos Stephan
joerger we move to par fives now all
three par fives fall between 550 and
600 however I did go through some
research today and they play them as as
as short as less than 500 yards you can
see there’s data in there so it’s it
doesn’t appear that we need to put all
of our eggs in this basket like we did
last night that might have been an error
on my part 3.2
3.4 probably not looking at this range
solo but it looks like we’re just
looking at par fivs in general cuz they
do move the t’s and pins around enough
that they change lengths quite a
bit um of course you got to you got to
score well in this part five like KH Lee
last year was good at them he wasn’t
great at them 50th but eighth fourth
eighth 11th Fifth Fifth 11th our winner
a little bit lower in here if we look at
2022 KH Lee really plays the par FES
well 7.2 6.2 he played them well in the
first year that he won just first 2nd
25th 5ifth e8th I mean a lot in here now
two years ago it was the f 50 to
6 but I I’m thinking it’s more just the
par FS because there’s still data in all
of these
buckets so our top par five performers
in the field this week this calendar
year Nick Dunlap Bronson beron minu Lee
Wills aloris Doug gim McKenzie Hughes
Thor Bjorn olison B hosler Kevin TW and
Mark
Hub so there’s a look
at some of the data that looks like it’s
going to be pretty critical based on
prior
leaderboards I’ll bring us back to The
Strokes game let’s move to Microsoft
Excel and let’s really dig into TPC
Craig Ranch let’s get a feel for some
numerical values here around TBC Craig
Ranch we’re going to start with Prett
usual The Strokes gained the four major
shot types in golf you see off the te
has gained importance fairly
significantly year-over-year
here pretty darn solid especially last
year more than doubled the around the
green the approach has been very very
steady so again contributing to this
ball
striking uh Narrative of a course that
we’re looking at the round the green
number is is slightly high but I I’m
more focused on the ball Strikers this
week especially off the te and then the
put
solid not great but solid so we’ll have
a little bit of putting in our mixed
condition model but we’re looking a lot
of off the tea I’m going to be
overweight off the tea I think against
other pundits uh if if I had to guess we
looking at approach plenty as well
moving into driving and greens like last
year distance mattered K Lee the second
year he won it didn’t matter at all so
very very volatile statistic here that’s
why I’m not terribly confident that I
want to look at distance probably just
more so looking at off the te if I am
going to look at distance it’ll be 5%
when rounds are
easy now the first
year the uh TBC Craig Ranch was seen
Fairways didn’t matter much at all past
couple of years they’ve gained an
importance
so maybe something to that I I don’t
feel fortable cuz again this is pretty
volatile like the driving distance so I
don’t feel comfortable thinking Fairways
are are much of a big deal and then
we’ve got a pretty big outlier in in one
of the years from the Byron Nelson on on
greens so again maybe
5% but I don’t want to I don’t think I
want to put a whole lot into
here so maybe 5% in distance but I’m
more so just looking at off the te in
general we move to scoring at TBC Craig
Ranch birdies birdies birdies 3.99 you
look at somewhere like Colonial the
Charles Schwab is a two only a 2.8 so
almost one more full shot more
important Memorial is more about the
bogey avoidance let’s let’s try try to
find another easy tournament here uh
Mexico fairly easy it’s only get a
2.8 um let’s see Puerto Rico
3.06 and again remember that Byron
Nelson’s at a
3.9 I mean essentially a four that’s
telling you just
how how important these birdies gained
are you look at John Deere another place
where it is very very easy it’s only a
3.4 we’re at a
4.0 here this week look at rocket
mortgage Detroit
3.85 in fact I think the 3 3.9 might
indeed be the highest number I have to
go to this and
see do we have a
four no
so the Byron Nelson is the course on the
PGA tour where Birdie’s gained matters
the most for our top
finishers and that’s why we’re going to
put a whole lot of emphasis into birdies
are better gained this week it’s just a
huge deal um give you a quick idea
Bird’s gained
32% more important than the average full
field
course um moving to par 3s look it’s
only a 1.13 this is a pretty low
number doesn’t appear to be a a
particular range that matters um the
most these two are pretty evenly split
so if I did anything with par 3s it
would just be total par 3s but I
actually don’t think I’m going to do too
much with
them because they are 20% less important
um less important than the average full
field course just don’t see much there
instead we’re going to go to the par
fours and the par fives looking at par
fours I don’t think we want to ignore
them because we do have one here and one
that falls into this range as well but
six of the 11 fall to this range so I
think we’re going to separate out this
range look at it by
itself and take a look at total power
fours as well and you see they’ve
increased in
importance over the years as well so
probably looking at something like again
just kind of spitballing numbers here
maybe 10% in the total power fours and
5% in this range cuz the 4450 do
contribute quite a bit here they do
contribute quite a bit and it’s been
pretty consistent whereas the 450 to5
has been has been pretty darn
volatile been pretty darn volatile so I
don’t want to over or overweight this it
would only be about
5% and then par
fives look we thought it was just about
the 550 to 600 last night look the 500
to 550 is just about as
important just about as
important so we’re just going to be
looking at total par five lives
especially since they have played less
than 500 yards the past couple of years
uh some so we’re just going to be
looking at all par fivs so there’s a
look at some very very detailed data
around TPC Craig
Ranch we’ll move to the mixed condition
model that I made last year see how well
it fared how predictive it was how good
it was in terms of of results based uh
mixed condition model I strive for about
four to five uh missed Cuts in the top
20 obviously you want zero but it is
golf strange things happen so last
year’s mixed condition model at least in
terms of results based I missed one two
three four players in my top 20 missed
the cut that’s acceptable I would I
would I would accept that this year
again my winner was in the top or the
winner was in the top 20 Jason day he
was fairly popular but um you know he
was still there in the top 20 so giving
myself a little bit of credit there SEIU
sub 10% SEIU runner up was also in my
top top 15
actually Tom Kim Scotty sheffler again I
was talking about Ryan Palmer quite a
bit last night he topped 10 last year at
10% I would have to think he’s going to
be probably fairly popular but again
somebody that I always Target when when
uh conditions are very very easy so at
least from a results-based mix mixed
condition model I would accept this it’s
pretty solid the winner was in the top
20 um only four miscuts in the top 20 I
would accept that I I would be pretty
happy with that so what did I look at
20% birdies are better gained when it’s
easy makes a whole lot of sense this is
just
a birdie Fest we just got through
looking at the detailed data around TBC
Craig Ranch and how Bird’s
gained is or this is the course that
birdies gained matters the most of the
PGA Tour we’re going to look at birdies
are better because Eagles do happen here
so it makes a lot of sense
20% I had 15% Strokes gain approach I’d
probably want to up that a little bit um
but 15% Strokes scan approach makes a
lot of sense 15% par fives look you just
got a score on these far fives so so far
we’re in agreement 10% opportunities
gained on Long courses okay um you could
always play with the filter maybe make
that easy maybe make it long courses but
opportunities gained good drives gained
I don’t think I agree with too much
we’ll see how predictive it
was last year but I looked good drives
gained I had 5% in putting and I didn’t
separate out a speed filter I just
looked at bent I think that’s incorrect
I think we need to look at average and
fast so that way we’re not pulling in
the lightning speed rounds I think
that’s probably the best way to go about
that I did look at 5% Greens on Long
courses okay 5% total procs okay I can
understand that with these greens being
so
large um total proximity would seem to
make a little bit of sense only 5% and
200 plus I think that’s probably a an
error I’d probably want to increase this
a little
bit 5% on par fours and 5% 450 500 so
okay as I was mentioning I was
spitballing numbers saying 10% par fours
and 5% here but very well could go 5% in
each um we we are separating out the 450
to 500 but only making it a a minor part
of all of the of all of the Power 4S one
very big glaring Omission that I see
from last year’s mixed condition model
is off the tea I didn’t look at off the
tea at all so we’re definitely going to
have to incorporate some off the tea in
here so how predictive were these not
the greatest and TPC Craig Ranch has not
been historically one of the more
predictive courses on on the PJ tour uh
the best looks to have been the par
fours and the par fivs birdies are
better gain not great approach
was middling the opportunities was
really bad you want the lower the number
the better opportunities was pretty bad
good drives gained was pretty bad so
don’t know how I feel about bringing in
both of these into the mixed condition
model for this year I’m definitely I
definitely don’t agree with good drives
gain this needs to probably just be a
Strokes gain off the te
I do like opportunities but I definitely
would not put it at
10% definitely need to look at 5% and
honestly I’d probably look at easy
relative to par instead of on Long
courses um putting not very predictive
so I think it’s safe to say we are only
going to look at 5% there greens was
okay total procs was
bad 200 plus procs wasn’t great par
fours were fine and for 50 to 500 hey
good evening C thanks for jumping in
chat apologies if you were trying to
watch a little earlier was having some
technical difficulties I don’t like ta
to Green per se um I understand that it
is a very very
useful uh metric but I’m more focused on
just the ball striking because I don’t I
don’t think around the green is going to
matter this week so I’m going to be
focused solely on off the T and approach
and that’s why I don’t look at te to
Green I don’t suppose it could hurt if
you if if you want to if you want to
look at that but I’m just not factoring
in any and I mean any around the Green
in any capacity this week and that’s why
I’m not incorporating te to
Green but thanks for jumping to chat
good to see you this
evening um two more things that we have
to show for you we’re going to go back
to this early look file that we looked
at last night but instead of filtering
out the players who only had played it
once now that we know or we have a
strong feeling of what metrics and what
skills play well at TBC Craig Ranch
let’s figure out who has done the best
at those metrics at TVC Craig Ranch in
the three years so first thing we’re
going to look at is off the te um a lot
of players who have only played it once
you see cam champ kind of his game is
off the te but he’s been very very good
off the tea here but typical cam champ
he is not putt worth the
damn um Ryan Palmer has been very good
off the tea here Johnny
Vegas two for two very good off the te
Matthew n Smith now Pearson Cy has been
horrendous at this tournament but he’s
been good off the tea he just hadn’t
done a damn thing else spe’s been good
norin KH Lee although he you see what
he’s done with the
irons bramlet Jagger
James Han who’s now in the field thanks
to a sponsor invite somebody to maybe
take a look at Adam Scott been pretty
decent off the tea so there’s a look at
your top off the te
players at TBC Craig
Ranch we look at approach definitely
want to look at who has hit their
approaches the best here no surprise
two-time Champion KH Lee th Taurus has
been pretty good there’s Jord spe very
good hubard hit his irons immaculately
here Justin low and Tom Kim Han kazy
look at sha O’Hare average finish of
45th it doesn’t sound standout I know
but he’s hit his irons pretty darn well
here um Love Low yeah I mean he’s he’s
played okay here just like Shan O’Hare
average finish of 45th he’s been he’s
been very good with his irons here he
will have to clean up some of this stuff
more so the off the tea I
think um but yeah I I I think it’s I
think it’s a worthy look uh in DFS don’t
know if I’d get there in one and done I
think there are some better options but
you know depending on what his odds are
for maybe like a top 10 or a top 20 I
definitely don’t hate
it uh I I don’t know how far I’d have to
go down to want to wager him though to
win uh and DFS Peter Peter Quest is
going to be pretty chalky I think but I
think it’s a good play he’s been Stellar
at these easy courses he’s been Stellar
here uh one time I think he finished
fifth or so um rounding out the rest of
this uh Strokes G approach Spa’s been
good with the irons here Coo’s been very
good with the irons here and he’s had
very good
success Nate Lashley I believe you asked
about last night he’s been okay
here gim and
Palmer Riley Vincent Norman finished
eighth lot of the ball
striking um thinking about one and done
yeah you asked me that last night like
I’m I still like Ryan
Palmer uh thinking he’s going to be more
unique than some of the other
names that people are thinking are going
to use so I like Ryan
Palmer um tell you what Adam shank
popped a lot to uh tonight
too uh in terms of like in the
wind um on Long courses So Adam shank
might be a name to think about as well
but I I really like Ryan Palmer Peter
Quest although I think he might be a
little bit more um chalky than you might
think but this is I think I think this
is a week where I’m going to be off the
beaten path I’m not using any zotus or
Ben on or mini or anything like that I’m
I’m going to be I’m going to try to to
find a unique one this week um looking
at
putting uh hearing that across the
community Texas he does well I don’t
which one are you referring to with that
Ryan Palmer uh if that’s if it’s Ryan
Palmer you’re referring to it’s because
he he’s from Texas no surprise there our
top Putters oh shank um shank’s from
Indiana but for whatever reason he is
he’s been pretty good I mean average
finish a 66 like he’s two for three here
but he
just with the metrics he lines It lines
up like he should play well here so
whether you want to put a big bigger
emphasis on like course
history or you know like the analytics
behind it our top our top
Putters um the three years at TBC Craig
Ranch you see everybody who’s done it
once like Adam Scott is putt great here
gosh dang it so definitely want to take
a notice of that and he’s averaged a
20th Place finish Alex norn is putt well
here uh Shamus Powers putt very well
here coocher bramlet bramlett’s not a
very good putter so
um
he’s somebody to perhaps think about
especially if he if he gets on a course
where he likes the putting there’s Adam
shank Hustler a little bit less in terms
of success Garnett three for three
here our defending Champion J Day always
going to be pretty high in the in the
putting
hubard um we’re going to
skip uh the driving in the greens let’s
just go to birdies gain because that is
as we talked about this is the course
where Bird’s gained matters the most on
the PGA tour yeah I don’t like Nick
Dunlap this week he’s been good with par
fives but ever since his win he’s been
he’s been in really really bad
form I just I don’t see it with Nick
Dunlap this week uh our top birdies
gained players look again Adam Scott
Jordan be there’s Peter Quest although
it’s only one time but um he’s played
well here Alex noren Ryan Palmer KH Lee
Stephan joerger bramlet these guys who
have
continuously played TPC Craig Ranch well
look at how well they’re performing in
these birdies gained and that’s why it’s
going to be if not the most uh heavily
weighted metric in the mixed condition
Model come Wednesday it’s going to be
one of them jday our defending Champion
even pretty high up here Vincent wayy
three for three for three SE was two for
three Shamus power three for Three B’s
game just big big facet big big facet
dlap yeah I mean maybe
but you will be different on that and if
he plays well you’ll beat me in that
regard I’m just not willing to I’m just
not willing to go there I think there
are better plays that I’m more confident
in uh skip the par 3es going to look at
Par Four
power fives and then the 200 PLS so our
top power four performers Adam Scott
again there a spe again Jagger and day
day’s done it more in the par
fours uh as you see he is even on the
par fives whereas two-time Champion KH
Lee has really taken advantage of the
par fives but he’s been okay at the
power fours as well coocher Sheamus
power and Joseph bramlet there’s your
top power four performance
par five and then 200 plus and then
we’ll go to the research to finish off
the show top par five performers Vincent
Norman it’s only one time but then look
your two-time Champion KH Lee spe who’s
played very well here Ryan Palmer who’s
played very well here just demolishing
these par fives Alex noren snaker and
lipsky a little bit less in terms of
success but they’ve been very good at
the par fives here Tom Kim Adam Scott
John Vegas two for two Sheamus power 3
for three so big deal there
lastly
for this section of the show 200 plus
who’s been the best at TPC Craig Ranch
from 200
plus Harrison indot one for one there Z
Taurus Cameron
Champ Hadley has been very good from 200
plus but you see the performance has
been very bad so there’s something not
lining up there Lashley has been okay
there’s Tom Kim again Scott day Jagger
so 200 plus is not contributed to the
elite success that say the par fivs the
par fours the birdies gained have but I
do think we’re going to want to look at
some 200 plus procs considering 35% of
the approach shots come from there all
right let’s Resort this on best average
finish I’m going to end off the show
showing you a little bit of the research
that we went into what I posted oh gosh
wrong I wanted smallest to largest went
into the research that I posted on
social
media we’ll do a couple of different
things first off let’s take a look at
what I call the winter Matrix which is
performance solely at TPC Craig Ranch
leading up to a player’s win so TBC
Craig Ranch originally seen in 2021 so
no one had had any performance there and
C Le backs it up with win Jason day at
least made the cut last year but he did
miss the cut the first time he played it
and then wins so not a whole lot of
history here maybe maybe if you wanted
to um you know put a uh put a qualifier
on somebody that they had to have made
the cut last year but I I’m not going to
put prior course performance very high
this week in in terms of my weight in
the mix condition model this has been a
pretty um volatile course and it’s only
been seen 3 years so I’m not I’m not
liking that but I figured I would show
you the winter Matrix but what I really
want to show you what I really want to
show you in terms of the research is
this winter form players these are the
tournaments that they had played leading
up to their win at the Byron
Nelson the color coding here I was
looking at long courses and I was
looking at easy courses so anything in
blue is a long course over 7,400 yards
well as Fargo Masters Arnold Palmer
Farmers see jday had generally really
really good form he had been playing
really really well last year anyway but
take a look at the form from KH Lee in
2022 he missed the cut at the Masters he
missed the cut at the Valero he was
fairly middling at the Arnold Palmer so
it wasn’t a whole lot in terms of the um
performance on Long courses much the
same same for him the first year 58th a
miscut and a miscut so it’s not long
courses that these guys have been
playing well leading into their win what
was it was when it’s easy and again I I
put this note on social media but uh to
me this is you know just by my
definition an easy tournament is a
tournament that has at least two rounds
that were classified as easy per fantasy
National
without a round that was difficult so
easy easy average average three rounds
easy four rounds of easy that is what I
classify as a as an easy tournament You
can disagree but I’m just telling you
what my definition is for why I’m
highlighting these tournaments I want
you to take a look at the form of the
winners on these easy tournaments Jason
day gr generally you know very good form
last year but he top 20 the only
tournament that was easy leading into
his win KH Lee he didn’t have a whole
lot of form but look at his two of his
better finishes in
2022 the century and the
Sony in his win in
2021 top 20 at the Sony a second at
Waste Management when it was really easy
that year so a lot of good for
form on easy tournaments or in Easy
tournaments leading into their win at
the Byron Nelson and not only that the
reason why I think I’m going to be using
the easy relative to par filter instead
of the long course filter for off the
tea look at the the Champions
Performance Off the te at these easy
tournaments they have all gained Strokes
off the tea at these easy
tournaments and that’s why I think it’s
going to be a pretty big deal this week
with the off the tea so I wasn’t able to
fit all of that in 140 characters so I
wanted to make sure I really brought
that to our attention this evening as
that has been a big Source or that was a
big source
of um who I you know eliminated and
narrowed down um in terms of players who
fit that category
or you know who fit the criteria this
week for your information there have
been several tournaments that have been
classified as easy this year so if you
want to take a quick note of this I’ll
try to type them up here as well going
in chronological order no surprise the
century was easy the Sony was
easy the American Express the AMX was
easy this year as well
um Pebble was actually classified as
easy it had two rounds of easy and one
round of average I know it was shortened
but uh based on what was played it was
considered easy so Pebble
Beach waste management was easy this
this season
Mexico Puerto Rico the RBC Heritage
which uh was a signature event so not a
whole lot of
players were there that are in the field
this week we but you can always take a
look in the coral those are the
tournaments that have been classified as
easy using that same definition at least
two rounds of easy and no round that’s
difficult those are the tournaments in
2024 that have been
easy so I’ll let you get a snapshot of
that but that’s why I really feel like
the
offat combined with the easy relative to
par filter is what I’m going to be using
considering they all did very well off
the tea at their easy tournaments
leading into the byon
Nelson but that is what I have for you
all this evening I apologize for the
technical difficulties uh early on in
the show uh hopefully that um didn’t
bother you all too much and I’ll make
sure I edit it edit that out on YouTube
but thanks to C for jumping in chat
thanks thanks to everybody else out
there who Tunes in watches listens
supports the channel by liking the
videos commenting and subscribing I
always appreciate it love what I do
taking in-depth look at sports
statistics trying to help us all win a
little bit of money in the process uh I
will be um live Wednesday night to
finalize our
lineups um for the DFS tactic show uh
take a look at the up to the second
forecast see if there is a
uh half of the draw that we want to uh
favor or Focus uh take a look at
ownership projections and all that and
of course my rankings for the Byron
Nelson so thanks again for all the
support for all the Wagers you’ve made
so far this week for the Bayern Nelson
for all the Wagers you’re thinking about
making this week for the Bayern Nelson
and until I see you Wednesday night for
the DFS tactics show may all your bets
be profitable
