The draw for the 2024 world snooker championship has been made and I try to predict all 16 first round matches!

what is going on sneaker fans welcome
back to the channel and a very happy
crucial Eve to all of you we are just
one sleep away from the world
championship getting started in
Sheffield tomorrow morning 10:00 a.m.
when Luca brasell kicks off the
tournament with the beginning of his
title defense and look it’s going to be
a strange tournament for me on a
personal note as some of you that’s seen
the channel before will be aware I am a
huge Neil Robertson fan so this is going
to be the first year I’ve ever watched a
snooker World Championship where Neil
isn’t
involved um I suppose the silver lining
for me is I just get to enjoy the next
17 days purely as a neutral snooker fan
you know there’s not going to be any
stress there’s not going to be any
tension when it comes to you know hoping
and praying that that Neil wins a second
world title that’s out the
window and you know even though n
Robertson didn’t qualify we still have a
really strong bunch of qualif iers this
year and quite a few of them have a lot
of Crucible experience in between them
as well I made a video before the
qualifi started where I went through all
the 16 sections and I tried to predict
the 16 qualifiers and quite frankly I
had a bit of a shocker I only got five
out of 16 for correct qualifiers picked
and you know that either shows the
complete unpredictability of the world
championship qualifiers or perhaps it
shows my complete lack of sneaker
knowledge it’s a 50/50 I’ll let you
decide which one is more likely um but
yeah we have a really strong lineup as I
say you know we’ve got players in the
top 16 who are in great form and we’ve
got plenty of experience within the
qualifiers this year who could
potentially cause a few
upsets and so the full draw for the
first round has been made yesterday and
this video I’m going to look at all 16
first round matches I’m going to have a
look at the key statistics within each
match and ultimately try and predict the
correct score for all 16 matches as well
before doing so I did do a little bit of
research into the past few tournaments
just to see on average how many
qualifiers win a first round match at
the Cru bow um in 2021 two qualifiers
won in 2022 three qualifiers won and
then last year four qualifiers won so
ort of year on year is steadily getting
more and more um but I was actually
quite surprised cuz typically I remember
it being around sort of 5 six s um
qualifiers winning their first round
matches it can be a bit of a mindfield
particularly because the tops is coming
a little bit cold especially as the
qualifiers have just had to play at
least two best of 19s to get through to
the venue another slightly surprising
statistic this year is we’ve only got
one debutant that’s Jo o Conor in my
preview of the qualifiers um I was
saying that typically on average there’s
been three debutants for the past few
years so only one shows that this year
experience really was the order of the
day so going straight into the draw and
we begin right at the beginning with
defending Champion Luca brassel and he’s
up against one of the most dangerous
qualifiers in David Gilbert um as Luca
brasel will be very well aware he is not
only facing the daunting Prospect of
having to defend a world championship
he’s defending a first world
championship which means that chrisal
curse is going to be looming right over
his over his
head David Gilbert specifically said
after qualifying that he did not want to
play 10:00 a.m. Saturday or Sunday so of
course what would happen is he finds
himself playing first day 10:00 a.m.
against a defending
champion this will be the SI appearance
for Luca rasell at the Cru
versus 10 appearances for David Gilbert
at the sports biggest stage and talking
about Gilbert in a qualifiers I do think
in general he looked pretty strong um he
beat David Lily and xal gong making four
tons in the process and you know it has
been a long while coming to see him
return to this kind of scoring form and
this is going to be a real Stern test
for the Cru curse nerves of Luca brasell
when the draw was made um I couldn’t
think off the top of my head of any
matches that these guys have played and
when you look at the head-to-head
they’ve only ever played once before
which considering they’re two players
that have been near the top of the game
for the best part of the past decade
that is a little bit surprising um that
one previous meeting came all the way
back in 2015 at the Shanghai Masters and
Luca brasel won that 53 so in terms of
head-to-head there’s not much to go on
when trying to predict the winner of
this match and ultimately I’m just going
on a bit of a gut feeling and I think
this is going to go close and I think
it’s going to be really nervy um both
players can score both players can pot
and I’m just going to back Luke brassel
um I think it’s going to go you know
deep into Saturday evening um and the
only reason I’m backing brael is Dave
Gilbert hasn’t found himself in too many
high pressure matches sort of on the big
stage in in recent years and Luca brel
hopefully be able to draw from all the
confidence he got 12 months ago uh so
for me it’s going to finish 108 to LCA
brassell the second match features the
number 16 seed Robert milkins up against
Pang Jun Su now in my preview of the top
16 players I talked about how poor
milkin season has been um but you know
what pangu hasn’t had an awful lot to
shout about this season either he’s only
had one single run to the last 16 at any
tournament this season Pang of course
made his debut at the cruise bow last
year losing to O Sullivan in the first
round and you know once he got settled
in that match he did give a pretty good
account of himself it was just it took
him so long to settle that by the time
he did O Sullivan was too far cleared to
P it back um and you know the qualifiers
he had two tight wins over Oliver Brown
and Cha upup to qualify as well and you
know what this is arguably one of the
hardest matches to call of the lot
because not only are both players
completely out of form but they’ve also
never played each other outside of the
championship league so there isn’t even
like a head-to-head record to go on
either um so this therefore is just a
gut feeling and I think if pan can
settle into the match faster than he did
12 months ago I do think he can make
life difficult for milkins so I’m going
to go for my first qualifier to win and
predict a 106 win for Pang
jangu the third match in the draw is one
of the most eye-catching draws of the
entire first round we have two players
who between them have over 40 Crucible
appearances to their name Ali Carter of
course a two times finalist while Steven
Maguire well he’s been to two
semi-finals outside of the championship
league or the snooker shootout they’ve
played each other 14 times and you know
what actually I would have thought that
two players who have been at the top of
the game for so long might have had a
few more big meetings than they actually
have the head of ahead is 95 in Ali
Carter’s favor but the key match to
highlight is that semi-final in 2012
where Ali won
1712 I thought actually Steven Maguire
looked pretty good you know as good as
he has done all season to be honest at
the qualifiers and I was probably more
impressed with how levelheaded he seemed
you know particularly in his last
qualifier match against one Shin who
pushed him quite hard and there were
times where things weren’t going
Steven’s way but there was never any
sign of frustration he kept it very cool
um and you know it’s often said that
that is regularly Steven’s undoing but
you know he held it together very well
and got two bigger wins to
qualify and you know ultimately though
one of these men has had a much better
season than the other and with a better
head-to head also in his favor I do
think Ali will have a bit too much in
this battle of the veterans so my
prediction here is Ali Carter to win 107
up next we’ve got the 2005 Champion sha
Murphy and you know what on paper this
looks like a similar type of match up
for sha to last year where he faces a
dangerous young Chinese player who
whilst on paper he’ll be favored to beat
can also still have the potential to
cause the 2005 Champion a big headache L
Haan is coming back for his fourth
appearance at the Cru ball and will be
aiming to get back to the last 16 for
the first time since he did making his
debut back in in
2018 there’s only three previous
meetings between the pair and after Lou
won their first in China in
2018 Murphy has won their last two with
an aggregate score of 11
to1 I say this is another match that
screams banana skin but I do think sha
Murphy will be ultra motivated not to
lose in the first round again and I do
fancy him to come through with a little
bit to spare in this one so for me it’s
going to be Shawn Murphy to win 104
next up we’ve got Mark Selby and when it
comes to Crucible experience this is
probably the biggest mismatch of the lot
in the first round matches we have Selby
a four times world champion facing the
only debutant to make it to the Cru Bowl
this year I talked in my qualifiers
preview that this had been a pretty
quiet season for Joe but he pulled
together two huge wins first to beat
junior l cler 10-1 and then he had that
Marathon finale to his Judgment Day
match against Matthew selt to earn his
first ever appearance on the main
stage when we’re looking at the
head-to-heads the pair have played each
other four times sel’s won all four with
their last meeting coming at the 2022
English
open and you know as it is always the
case for every single debutant for Joe
it’ll be how quickly he can adapt to his
new surroundings some Davy ton look
right at home at a cruise bow you know
players like Jack Jones Jamie Jones
Anthony McGill all made quarterfinals on
their debut but it can also flip the
other way and be very easy for them to
be like rabbits in their headlights and
get swallowed by the venue now Selby’s
confidence as I said in one of my
preview videos is not as high this year
and you know if Joe can apply some early
pressure this could become a real test
for the four times world
champion but it’ll be a brave man to go
through the on here and for me I’m going
to have Selby to win again with a little
bit to spare so for me my prediction is
Mark Selby to win
105 up next we have one of the stories
of the qualifiers and that was
52-year-old Dominic Dale coming through
to The Crucible becoming the oldest
player since Steve Davis back in 2010 to
do so and you know it’s a huge story not
only his age but also Dominic Dale
talked very recently about retiring and
now here he is back at the cruise bow
for the 10th time in his career and the
first time for 10 years after he made it
to the quarterfinals there back in 2014
you know he also got to a quarterfinal
back in the year 2000 as well plenty of
experience and I perhaps wrote him off a
little bit too quickly in my preview I
didn’t really give him a second thought
and you know he’s completely proved me
wrong two fantastic wins to get to The
Venue playing Kiren though does feel
like a little bit of a step too far for
him and whilst it has been a quiet
season for Wilson I mentioned in my
preview video the fact that he has made
61 centuries this season and I’m not
convinced that Dom can match this level
of scoring and we all know that Kiron
can mix it tactically as well if he
needs to so you know both aspects of the
game Kiron is heavy favorite here the
head-to-head what out stands 62 in
Wilson’s favor with Dale’s last victory
coming in
2015 and this will be the first time
that they’ve ever faced each other in a
match longer than the best of
seven and you know look it’s it’s an
absolute fairy tale sort of story for
Dominic Dale and he’s not going to be
there to make up the numbers he’ll give
it a real good go uh but for me I do
think Wilson will just be far too strong
here so my prediction is Ken Wilson to
win
103 next we’ve got the next four-time
Cruise bow Champion versus is the man
who’s well quite frankly been haunting
my nightmares for the past couple of
nights but In fairness you know what a
performance it was from Jam to beat Neil
especially considering Neil had begun
the second session by storming into an
85 lead but you know Jaime’s nerve never
faulted and it was a performance that
really reminded me so much of like
Graham dot in his absolute prime you
know tenacious gritty and he gave
absolutely everything into every shot
that he played played you know it was a
fully deserved win um it wasn’t a match
that Neil threw away it was a match that
Jamie Jones took and won and absolutely
every credit to him and you know he’ll
need every bit of that again against one
of the Cru Bow’s best ever competitors
good news for Jamie is he has reached a
CR bow quarterfinal he’s beaten Shawn
Murphy here twice and he’s also beaten
Steven Maguire there as well the
head-to-head while these two haven’t
played all that much uh with four
meetings between them it’s two wins a
piece Jamie winning their last meeting
in Scotland two years ago and you know
all of this tells you is that Higgins
needs to be at his best here jaim will
emotionally need to get himself back
down to zero and ready for another
battle but he’s done it before here and
he could very well do it again so I’m
going to stick my neck out and have a
second uh qualifier to win and that’s
Jamie Jones to beat John Higgins 108
next up we have Mark Allen against
Robbie Williams and well Williams he is
back for his fourth world championship
appearance and is first since 2016 also
a pretty unique statistic that was
raised a few times um in that Judgment
Day commentary is that in all four of
his Judgment Day wins all four of them
have come in deciding frames so there’s
certainly be no lack of bottle from him
at The Crucible though he is still yet
to win a match although he has gradually
been winning more frames he firstly lost
102 to Robertson on his debut he then
lost 107 to Stewart Bingham and then he
lost 108 in
2016 and you know it was a fantastic
results for him this year as well
beating wakelin a man who’s reached a
final this season to
qualify he has unfortunately found
himself drawn against one of this
season’s outstanding performance and a
man who has won three of their previous
four meetings interestingly every single
match they’ve played has finished in a
whitewash though none of these matches
have been longer than the best of nine
so I very much doubt we’ll see another
whitewash
here however as I said in my segment
about Allan in my tournament preview I
do genuinely think he is primed for
another genuine title challenge this
year and can only see him winning this
one so for me Mark Allen to win 105
kicking off the second half of the draw
now and we have five times ranking event
winner this season Jud Trump and you
could consider Jud to be a little bit
unfortunate here again last year he drew
arguably the toughest qualifier in
Anthony Mcgill and this year he has
drawn another one of the players to
seeds ideally would have wanted to avoid
faay well he’s back for his third
consecutive Crucible appearance and is
showing further signs of being a man
sort of on the verge of cracking into
the top 16 very soon on his debut back
in 2022 husin faced Jud Trump as well in
the first round and on that occasion Jud
came out a comfortable 10-4 winner but
then he came back last year and he beat
dingshan W 10-6 in the first round
before then getting involved in some I
would say unnecessary verbal before his
match with O solivan and then O solivan
then went on to comfortably dispatch him
in the last
16 and you know you have to say in his
first three cruci appearances playing
Jud twice O Sullivan and ding is about
as tough as it gets for Hussein um the
head-to-head between the pair is in
jud’s favor winning seven of their
previous 11 meetings with their biggest
matchup being that first round two years
ago but you know after losing first
round last year and after having the
seasons that he’s had this year I do
think Jud will have that extra
motivation not to let that happen again
this and he is you know playing far
better this season than he was last um
it’s an incredibly difficult opening
test for him but again as he has shown
All Season he has that ability to raise
his game if and when he needs to and I
think he’s going to need to again in
this match so for me I’m going to go for
Jud to win
107 next up we have Tom Fords against
Ricky Walen and this is going to be Tom
Ford’s first stint as a seeded player at
the world championships and it begins
with an opening tie against Ricky Walen
a man making his ninth Crucible
appearance the former semi-finalist came
through a judgment day decider for the
second year in a row and as a multiple
tournament winner he is another of the
experienced qualifiers that the seeds
ideally would have wanted to
avoid Tom though I imagine will come
into this year’s championship as
confident in his own game as he probably
ever has been he’s never won a match at
The Crucible before but for any of you
Tom Ford fans if you’re looking for a
positive well Luca brasell hadn’t won a
cruise bow match before last year either
and who was Luca brell’s first round
opponent last year well it was Ricky
Walen and we all know what happened
there there’s not much separating these
two when it comes to the head-to-head
Walen just about edging their nine
previous meetings 54 their last meeting
though cing nearly 4 years ago which
Walen won in a
decider everything here points to it
being another close match Tom Ford you
have to say is in much better form but
Walen has the upper hand when it comes
to experience at the world
championship I typically feel like Walen
has a pretty consistent level at the
cruise bow and whilst Tom hasn’t always
been able to perform his best here
either way I expect this to be another
close one but I am backing Tom to bring
his you know new found confidence into
this match and Edge it so for me Tom
Ford to win 108
another man making his first appearance
as a top 16 seed at the Cru bow is Zang
Ander the surprise package of the season
will be hoping that he too can bring
this sort of new found level he’s
produced this season into the sports
biggest stage and you know just like Tom
Ford Zang has also never won a match at
the cruise bow so it really is just copy
and paste everything I said about Tom
into this section about Zang Ander as
well and he’s up against Jack Jones and
Jack well he’s back for his second
Crucible appearance after making his
very impressive debut last year you know
he beat Barry Hawkins to qualify and
then he beat Ali Carter and Neil
Robertson at the venue and he also
pushed Mark Allen very close in the
quarterfinals as well this year well he
scored two further notable wins against
Jamie Clark and X long to qualify again
so he is really quickly building up a
reputation as a man with a game built
for the biggest stage
if we’re looking at these two players as
well they’re almost like mirror images
of each other in terms of how they play
the game both are very levelheaded are
solid in all Departments of the game so
it’s another match that on paper looks
very very difficult to
call the head-to-head while the pair
have played each other three times
before we have Jones winning twice one
of those wins coming this season at the
world shopin and for Zang well his last
win well his one and only win was 14
years ago in
Shanghai as I say it is another
difficult match to call but I am mainly
being suedes but the ease in which Jack
adjusted to the cruise bow last year and
I do fancy him to do something similar
this year too so my prediction is Jack
Jones to win 109 the eye-catching draws
where they just keep continuing to come
here as we now have three time Cru bow
Champion Mark Williams and he faces last
year’s semi-final C we now for C I think
it’s a very good sign that he’s managed
to put last year’s disappointment behind
him so quickly and qualify for the
cruise ball at his very next attempt
although he was on the very brink of
losing 108 in his first qualifying match
to Ben Mertens who was in the sneaker’s
required stage before losing that frame
and thenc dominated the
decider now it’s really a question of
whether the venue itself has left any
scars on him you know can he draw upon
the positive of last year you know when
he beat Shawn Murphy milkins Anthony
McGill or will he only be thinking about
that loss in the semi-finals when he was
145 up on Luke
brassel whatever the answer to that is
though he knows that he will be up
against regardless against the most
recent tournament winner in Mark
Williams fresh off that Sensational TOUR
Championship win Mark’s tail will be up
and that is bad news to everyone else in
the draw if that CH Championship win
hadn’t have happened I would have been
putting serious consideration into C
getting another Crucible scalp here but
it is just impossible to ignore Mark’s
performance in Manchester a couple of
weeks ago so for me it’s going to be the
Welsh plotting machine to win
106 now then we have arguably the draw
of the round whichever seed that was
unfortunate enough to draw Jack would
have been cursing their luck and that
man this year is ding shanu who in truth
has not had it easy with first round
ties at the world championship in recent
years he lost to hin Fai last year he
lost to KY Wilson the year before that
when he was a qualifier and then in 2021
he had to play St Bingham and lost that
as well so ding really has been a magnet
for getting the hardest possible draws
here and this year is going to be no
different for Jack well he passed the
test of the qualifiers with ease in
truth comfortably dispatching Hong Yu
and Matty Stevens
making six centuries along the way as
well and it is that natural ability to
make the game Look So effortlessly Easy
that makes him so dangerous and you
can’t imagine it will take him very long
to get back into the top
16 like I say this really isn’t the draw
that Ding needed I do think that he’s
playing very well and he’ll know he’s
lost first rounds the past three years
and I wouldn’t blame him for Rolling his
eyes when this draw was made as well as
one of of just four Chinese players in
the draw this year he remains as the
country’s biggest hope for a first
snooker world champion and whilst me and
the rest of the snooker world would be
very very happy to see that happen
unfortunately I think he’s going to fall
at the first hurdle again here so my
prediction is Jack lazowski to win
108 next up in the draw we have Gary
Wilson up against Stuart Bingham and it
must be said I wasn’t the most confident
in to chances of getting through the
qualifiers to year on the back of two
very mediocre Seasons however to his
massive credit he battled his way to a
couple of huge wins firstly beating
Carrington from 4-1 73 and 97 behind to
win in a decider and then on Judgment
day he came through another real battle
with the youngster Lou heathcoat winning
108 after being on the verge of falling
97 behind in that match the good news
for Stewart therefore is not only has he
qualified but he’ll also be battle
hardened by coming through two tense
finishes and that could just be the
spark that he needed to get his career
back on track the bad news on the other
hand is he is up against another of this
season’s outstanding performers I talked
in detail about how I think serious
consideration should be put into the
threat that Gary Wilson carries this
year he’s going to be back a seed as he
was last year and he’ll be looking to go
a couple of steps further than he did
back in 2019 when when he got to the
semi-finals these two have only ever met
at the championship league which I don’t
ever consider when looking at a head
ahead so this effectively is their first
ever meeting in a proper match and it’s
another that has the Hallmarks of going
sort of all way Stuart proved that he’ll
be up for a battle but I just have an
inkling that Gary Wilson will Edge this
one so I’m going to go for a decider and
for Gary Wilson to win
109 now forgive me for sounding a little
bit like a broken record in this video
but again we have another draw that
really stands out Ryan day well he
almost surrendered a 72 lead on Judgment
Day eventually falling over the line to
beat Scott Donaldson 109 and earn
himself a 14th Crucible appearance so he
is another player in this draw with bags
and bags of Crucible
experience and out of all the first
round matches this year this is still
one with the largest head-to head
outside of the the championship league
and the snooker shootout the pair have
played each other 20 times and they Le
to head-to-head 128 their first ever
match was all the way back in the year
2000 they winning 10-1 at the world
championship qualifiers and you know
since then they’ve also met in a wild
card match for the Masters as well as a
final at the 2017 World Grand Prix which
Barry won 107 so both of them are going
to know each other’s games inside and
out we’ that said though I can
personally only see Hawkins winning this
one in general it has been a good season
getting a tournament under his belt last
summer has helped him get back into the
top 16 after missing out last year and I
think he’ll be able to pull away early
in this match and just about be able to
nurse a healthy lead through to the
finish line so for me it’s Barry Hawkins
to win
106 and now finally we have the rocket
in the headlines for all the wrong
reasons as per usual but he comes here
as the favorite to take home the title
and all the associated records that
would come with it good news for OS
solivan fans as if you needed any more
good news is that since 2004 o salivan
has only lost in the first round once
and that was that surprise defeat to
amateur James Cahill 5 years ago and you
know apart from that hiccup we’ve become
so used to seeing him just Breeze
through the first round without much
trouble
but with Jackson pagee he certainly
deserves respect it had been an awful
season for Jackson until about a month
ago when he reached the semis in China
and he’s packed that up with a strong
showing in the qualifiers to make his
second Crucible appearance his Judgment
Day match in particular against noon
Sanam was a superb watch and even though
he was helped by a massive fluke when he
was 98 down he wondered asid with a
Flawless century and it was a break
compiled by a man who who looked under
no pressure at all something his mentor
Mark Williams has made a career of
doing and you know this match also gives
off a strong resemblance to O Sullivan’s
first round match four years ago in 2020
when he played TCH onne just like Tey
Paige is a frighteningly quick player
and very attacking as well you know
he’ll go for just about anything and if
he’s on it we’ll get a high percentage
of those pots as well when O Sullivan
beat un new back in 2020 101 he won that
in under two hours and it was a record
for the cricket match at The Crucible
and whilst I do think Paige will take
more than just a single frame of the
rocket this year I do expect this to be
a very quick one as well and I do expect
o solivan to win so my prediction here
is O solivan to win
105 and so that completes my Roundup of
all last 32 matches at the 2024 snook
World Championship I predicted four
qualifiers to win which would match the
number from last year and honestly this
lineup is a bit of a mindfield and I
know every single year that cliche of
this being the strongest ever lineup
gets rehashed but this really is as hard
of a draw as you ever likely to see
Williams Robbie Williams that is he’s
the lowest ranked player at 48 in the
world so there’s no real sort of rank
Outsider in the draw and there is plenty
of reason to be concerned if you’re a
fan of any of the Seas seeds here as
always though I just hope it’s a really
good tournament and even though 17 days
feels like a long time it always goes in
a Flash so make sure to savor every
single moment of it especially in times
like this where there’s beginning to be
uncertainty regarding the crispo’s
future if you have any predictions for
the first round of course do let me know
in the comments below and I’ll catch up
with you all in the next video

3 Comments

  1. Hi there, new sub of yours. Excited for this WSC. Is gonna be great with some of the match ups.
    Funny enough we gone with the same results for quite a few in the round of 32!

  2. ..These match'ups ( to me) seem the Fairest, Best Suited, and Most Appropriate pairings of players that I can remember EVER having seen before;!!,… In every case, the winner from these matches will be a Proven Legitimate Candidate for the Ultimate Championship Trophy;!!,…… 🙂👍

  3. The 1st round is about predicting which seeds might fall. A Gilbert and Walden double is for me.

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