Which Duo Will WIN Zurich Classic? Golf Picks & PGA Tour Predictions | Links & Locks Podcast

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Zurich Classic on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Intro
01:55 – Best Bets
11:26 – Course Preview
17:24 – Outright Bets
41:00 – The Rest of the Best Bets

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo

hello you beautiful degenerates and
welcome to links and locks the action
networks golf betting podcast presented
by bet 365 alongside Spencer alongside
Spencer agar I’m Roberto aruo and thanks
for joining us this week as we break
down our 2024 Zurich Classic of New
Orleans betting preview Scotty sheffler
won again on the PGA tour last week he
won the RBC Heritage as heav favorite in
the plus 400 range Nelly Corda also won
her fifth consecutive tournament on the
L PGA won the M the first major
championship of the year at the Chevron
Championship I was pretty excited to be
out there on Thursday what a tournament
shout out to the women they are awesome
also Billy horel won the opposite field
event on the PGA tour the corales punana
championship by a couple shots so he’s
in the field this week for the Zurich
Classic of New Orleans he’s also a pass
Champion so we’ll break him down in a
very few short moments Spencer it’s an
unusual tournament this week on the PGA
tour the only official team event on the
calendar and as a reminder to Folks at
home who may not remember all the
details this week we’re going to have
four ball which is best ball on Thursday
and Saturday in the first and third
rounds we’re also going to have forums
which is better known as alternate shot
on Friday and Sunday and that presents a
little bit of uh different strategy for
handicapping this week so we’ll break
all that down in just a moment we’re
going to give our Best Bets to start
then we’ll go through our course preview
Spencer’s got a few other bets that he
wants to break down and then after we
get through his card we’ll talk about
our strategy because we both believe
there’s going to be a lot more value
betting this tournament once it starts
than before the Tournament begins as
books have been a little cautious with
their markets this week so I’m excited
to break it all down with you Spencer
without further Ado what is your best
bet for the 2024 Zurich Classic of New
Orleans I think you said it best Roberto
books have been very stingy we’ll call
it in offering matchups and in other
markets of that nature there’s I
understand this wonky event Outlook that
comes into play and and I think these
Sports books out there always air on the
side of caution just because there are
mistakes that can really Compound on top
of each other when you have sharp
betters trying to attack these markets
and it’s not necessarily your
prototypical board in trying to
find Value in general when a sports book
is putting it together there’s you know
two play you have to account for we
always talk on this show Roberto of how
even in a one-on-one matchup or when
you’re looking at one golfer and trying
to break him down it’s a volatile sport
at the end of the day and now you have
two players to worry about whether it’s
in baseball which is probably a little
bit more forgiving there and then you
get into alternate shot and it’s going
to be more of that Boomer bust nature
where you need two guys that are going
to play well together and I do think
that that’s where some of this value may
come into play an alternate shot once we
can get some in tournament bets going
but you talked about Billy horel I I’m
always the person or one of the people
out there that I try to go against what
public consensus is when you get these
massive deviations in the market I’m
always trying to push back against that
because numbers move too much so my best
bet this week is going to be bo Hustler
and Sam Ryder minus 110 that’s going to
be over Billy hor horel and Tyson
Alexander to me this was just the prime
example of a market overcorrection
taking place I’ll talk in a second when
we break down this play of why I do
think hor show makes a lot of sense but
uh we can get into the other end of this
where this is team Golf and you’re going
to need your partner to
perform want to give a quick update you
are quoting that as of a little bit
earlier on bet 365 that number is
actually improved to plus 120 so you got
a much better price in the market now
available so even more value on that bet
I am going with another matchup where
I’m GNA be targeting a weaker link and
I’m backing the Canadian Duo of Adam
hadwin and Nick Taylor at minus 110 over
Bryce Garnett and sep straa and you can
also find that actually at minus 110 as
well uh so be sure to shop around it’s
at -125 at our sponsor bet 365 Spencer
why are you picking on Billy horel and
Tyson Alexander a couple of gators down
in the body this week you know it’s nice
for once Roberto to have opposite line
movement like feel like we come on this
show quite a bit and and I release these
plays over at Ro to ball or I’ll release
it early on some of the Action Network
content and prices move very quickly and
it usually moves in a direction that is
not beneficial in a lot of sense if you
don’t get it right away so to get this
30-point move in the other sense of the
direction there I like this play even
more and it’s kind of for this reason to
where obviously the victory of from hor
show last week
at it’s going to propel him up the board
it’s just naturally always going to
occur when that happens and I think I
could somewhat buy that for an event
where he has thrived here in the past
he’s you know look at him with Sam burns
look at him with Scott piery there
there’s been a lot of success that he’s
had with different players and and I
think that piery one ends up being one
of the examples that people want to
point towards because you don’t think of
Scott piery and Billy horel
necessarily as a team that’s going to
win this contest and maybe you would
think that piy would hold them back but
you know we’ll talk about this a little
bit more when we get into the out right
market and and I think this is kind of
one of my points I’m going to make for
why I was more aggressive in the
outright Market but look at everybody
who’s won like the just the last five
winners we don’t need to roll through
every single one of them but they’re all
40 to one or less on the odds board hell
and piery were 3033 to1 my model loved
them during that event I just couldn’t
get there at that price I think this is
a much different example here when you
pair them with Tyson Alexander my model
had Alexander if we took all 160 players
in this field he’s 11th for weighted
birdie or better percentage he’s 121st
for bogey avoidance 143rd for
recalculated total driving and then
118th for weighted proximity as I said
like if we’re going to get this Market
correction because horel is kind of that
team guy to where you throw him in these
situations in these different events and
even when we talk about match play and
he’s a solo individual out there he
seems to get up for these types of like
awkward contests that come into the mix
but to me this is not the same example
of when he played with piery this is
definitely not the same example of when
he played with Sam Burns you’re only as
good as your partner in a lot of these
spots and I never think of Billy horel
as one of those extreme birdie makers in
a lot of these spots he can be hot and
cold and he can string birdies together
but I think an alternate shot he does
have a weak link that he maybe hasn’t
had in years past so we’re correcting
that number now for this show for
everybody who hadn’t heard the BET
before to plus 120 that going to be a
significant Edge for me inside of my
model I love this play especially with
it now at minus at plus 120 I also saw
it initially when it was at minus 110
and liked it and it’s because we can
attack Tyson Alexander he’s generally
somebody whom we won’t get matchups with
because he in my opinion had the least
consistent 2023 season of anybody who
kept their card he had 35 starts in the
2022 2023 wraparound season and he he
only had three top 20 finishes one of
them was a solo second at the Houston
open where he finished four shots behind
Tony fow so he wasn’t really in the
thick of it in contention uh that was a
pretty safe victory for fow and he rode
that top two finish to keeping his card
and this year he’s 125th on the FedEx
Cup I think he’s playing significantly
better golf than he was last year but
that’s not saying a ton and like you
mentioned the weakness for him is off
the te he’s about average this season on
the PJ tour in driving distance but he’s
below average in driving accuracy and I
think there’s a bit of a selection bias
in that he’s not somebody who’s in
playing at API he’s not playing at TBC s
grass he’s not playing at the big big
boy events for the most part uh but he
is somebody who so he’s not playing
against in the toughest fields and sorry
he did play The Players this year but he
did miss the cut overall I think the
driver is a big weakness for him he’s
not playing in the toughest events so
some of his approach numbers I think
might be a little bit more generous than
otherwise he’s played some decent golf
lately with the Ty for 14th at Valero
but last week t-55 at corales he still
only got two top 50 finishes in 11
starts so far this season on the PJ tour
I think he’s clearly the week link here
and I really like Hustler and Ryder
Hustler had a high finish here last year
Ryder can get hot on approach they both
can putt really well and I think that
that gives them an advantage they can
ham get a little bit more whereas I
think Tyson Alexander really going to
need the Billy boost in match play this
week it could happen and perhaps we get
this match up on a Friday where I’d like
it a lot more to attack when Tyson
Alexander has a lot more pressure on him
in the alternate shot when was the last
time he had a really consequential golf
shot on the PGA tour I know they’re all
consequential for him because he’s
battling to keep his card but he’s never
had a ton of external pressure on him
with the eyes of Billy horel this week
I’d imagine he’ll be in a featured Group
after winning last week being uh fan
favorite in the South and somebody who’s
won here in the past so a lot of
different reasons why I think fading
Tyson Alexander could be worth it this
week so I’m with you on that one and
going into my best bet this week
which I’m backing Adam hadwin and Nick
Taylor at minus 110 over Bryce Garnett
and SE straka we faded one opposite
field event winner in Billy horel I’m
fading Bryce Garnett a guy who didn’t
even have status on the PJ tour until he
won this week or won a couple weeks ago
and he
is the weak link clearly in this one and
as much as I want to fade him sep straa
and Bryce Garett both had high finishes
last week at the RBC Heritage which is a
very different Golf Course from this one
they’re both p p di designs but much
more of an emphasis on placement off the
tea distance isn’t as big of a
requirement at uh Harbor toown as it is
this week and both these guys are not
super long off the te and I like Adam
hadwin and Nick Taylor I’m bolish on
these two as guys who could be a factor
I could bet on them to upset some
Americans in the President’s Cup later
this year in Canada these two guys can
both stripe the ball they are relative
they’re very accurate drivers so they’re
not super long either but I trust their
long arm play a little bit more uh based
on a long period of time seeing them and
I like their short game they can both
get really hot with the putter so I
think they’ve got a lot more upside than
Bryce Garnett and sep straa do I kind of
want to sell high on straa and Garnett
because of the high finishes both in the
top 20 last week at RBC Heritage and I’m
also bullish on hwood and Taylor and I
know that you’re going to talk about
them in a little bit coming up so I
won’t steal all of your thunder there so
Spencer we’re both on the same side in
your best bet on ryer and Hustler at
plus 120 over hor Alexander and I’ve got
havn and Taylor at minus 110 over Garnet
Garnett and straa we’ll get into why you
like hadwin and Taylor in a little bit
but first let’s jump into our course
preview for TPC
lisiana I think this is a tricky week
for us here you have 80 teams that are
going to be competing for the title as
you said at TPC Louisiana top 33 and
ties will get to Tee It Up for all four
days you mentioned this at the beginning
of the show I will reiterate it one more
time you’re going to get your play split
between Thursday and Saturday that’s the
best ball format best score you can put
up as a team and then Friday and Sunday
is going to be alternate shot where it’s
exactly how it sounds there for anybody
who hasn’t watched you’re going to be
alternating shots and I think for me
that’s kind of where this Advantage
comes in to play from an internate
betting answer I I am very curious to
see if the sports books get a little bit
I don’t even want to say more aggressive
because I don’t think we’re going to get
a ton of matchups but you only have 80
teams here there there’s going to have
to be some nature of that they’re going
to have to be a little bit more
aggressive than they’ve been right now
so uh I think those are spots that we
can potentially attack I think when you
look at this course you’re not going to
necessarily have a ton of data to look
for from the recent iterations just
because anything that you’re going to
find is when this was a solo event
you’re not going to be able to extract
data otherwise from that I do think that
there are some pronounced things and I
put it into my model this week from what
I was trying to find an advantage for
like over 29% of second shots came from
over 200 yards when you backtracked this
you know before this became a team event
with it I just think for me a lot of
this comes down to how two players are
able to perform together cuz you’re
going to get this freedom and extra room
for aggressiveness during the best ball
portion and then a lot more strategy
that is involved for everyone when you
dive into alternate shot you can talk
about that from a betting strategy DFS
what that all means because it doesn’t
necessarily mean that every single team
is going to get the answers correct and
a best ball
format is always weird because Roberto
you can find a position to where two
players could be on the same team
together and they could combin to be 14
underpar but they birdy the same seven
holes with each other or whatever the
situation ends up being and it doesn’t
account for the same way with it as you
would hope so I think finding varying
differences in these golfers at least
when we’re looking at this from an
upside perspective is very important and
it kind of goes back to the answer that
I talked about with even pierc and horel
I know everybody wants to give this this
answer right now when talking about this
event to where it’s wonky tournament
there’s going to be this potential for
anybody to win just look at what’s
happened in the past well Hardy and
Riley and Roberto you’re probably the
biggest Riley supporter that I know but
40 to1 team to win that tournament they
were a top 15 favorite I talked about
piery and horel if you look outside of
that it’s Xander Klay Lehman cam Smith
Ron Palmer those are all 120 one teams
or less I’m more aggressive and more
bullish towards the top of this board it
doesn’t mean that you can’t still find
Value out there with some of these names
like the Andrew Novak and Davis Thompson
sort of teams but look at where their
prices are like they’re 50 to one in the
market like to me that is the bottom
floor of like a lot of these teams that
can actually win I I think once you get
outside of what my model perceives to be
the top 20 favorite teams I don’t really
want exposure to a lot of these really
super long shot names in the past sure
you’ve gotten options like kizner and
Scott Brown that have catapulted
themselves up the leaderboard and maybe
this is where horel can have Alexander
be his Scott Brown for how kizner was
able to carry that for them but you know
I’m not necessarily relying on on
situations like that so I’m trying to
find where I can pick on some of these
golfers and and I think for matchups
that’ll come later but for the outright
Market which we’ll get to in a second I
am trying to be more aggressive which is
a very different approach to be given
I’m just lessening my win total from the
seven or eight units that I’m normally
going towards more for about four units
here because there’s there’s going to be
a certain lack of dispersion of scoring
that we can pull into our
models I like that you mentioned the
that you’re you’re minimizing your
amount to win and obviously your amount
bet this week I don’t have any outright
bets I’m very strongly considering
adding shafley and Klay I really think
they get it done this week I love how
they hameg it but last year they
honestly underachieved because they
played relatively poorly on best ball
but on on Friday last year they set the
tournament record for alternate shot and
then did better on Alternate shot again
on Sunday than they did their first
round best ball I thought they left a
lot out there on the table I know
they’re going to be in in contention it
almost feels like Scotty Sheffer where
there’s just one team that has a floor
so much higher above every other team’s
floor and a ceiling so much higher than
any other team ceiling this week that I
really think they’re going to be a
factor and they were last year when uh
they mounted another comeback in the
last round as well but I think that it’s
they’re only a handful of teams where I
really believe in the two golfers and
like you I think there’s not much beyond
that 55 to one uh price in the outr bo
with any win Equity there are some
players I really like like a Luke list
on this golf course but he’s playing
with a Henrik norlander who isn’t even
on the PJ tour so there are a handful of
golfers in pairings like that where I’d
like to back them but I don’t know that
I can believe in their partner enough to
win I think there are some sneaky top 20
uh top 10 plays that could perhaps come
to fruition but there’s just so much uh
unknown and with there only being 80
teams not as many players uh potentially
to get into those markets so I only have
those two matchup bets that we mentioned
at the top of the show and our Best Bets
on my card but you have a more robust
card and you are invested in the
outright
Market before I get to that Roberto let
me ask you this question because it goes
into what you just talked about so
inside of my model I compared every
single person in this field as an
individual and then I also compared them
as a team I think there’s a lot of
different ways to look at that obviously
as individuals that’s more of your best
ball as a team that’s going to be more
of how they can combine
together whether this is a trick
question or a very obvious question
there were three teams here because you
talked about their being the structure
of there’s only so many teams that kind
of have two high-end players that fit
the mold there were three teams for me
that had every single player from that
team grade inside of the top 50 for all
six categories that I ran this week
would you like to guess who those three
teams
were
um I would guess that a it it let me
pull the odds just so I have all the all
the teams here um obviously kley and
choffle is one of them that’s one I
think Lowry maoy is gonna be one of them
that’s two uh I’m pretty sure the Gin Al
Taurus are going to be the other
one there was three that’s the so that’s
that’s kind of the point that I’m making
here and and I think it goes into the
outright sector of this conversation
that I want to have I like kittama and
morawa I don’t have a massive issue with
them I think kittama for me is a top 15
player through all iterations of how I
ran my model and they’re probably the
fourth best team here inside of my model
they’re the fourth team you also get
this really high-end output from certain
players in different areas so like hadam
hadwin was in inside of the top 50 for
all the categories and I think they can
actually still win because Taylor has
the ability to thrive in a lot of areas
that I think will help Adam hadwin
specifically for alternate shot which is
where my model liked them a lot so if my
math is kind of deriving this answer
from the mix here to where the top three
favorites are the deserving top three
favorites they’re the only three teams
that have every single player inside the
top 50 and you kind of now have this
public narrative that I keep talking
about where everybody wants to go
further down this board and and I don’t
there’s people not doing it I’m not like
that’s obviously a very broad statement
to make when there are still people
going more in the direction I’m talking
about but I I still think that the the
group think mentality here is okay this
is a weird tournament like let’s not
invest very much let’s try to get a
sweat on this event and let’s take a 100
or 150 to one golfer and maybe they can
find success I would kind of argue that
you’re correct that some of the markets
that would make more sense for that like
top 20s and things of that nature
because it’s going to be very difficult
to beat these teams but when I ran my
numbers and I was trying to figure out
what route I wanted to go here there is
a team and I know everybody’s heard this
from me before this is if it’s not
Xander on one end it’s usually Rory on
the other and I did take Rory and Lowry
at eight and a half to one at bet 365
when that opened on Monday we could joke
and I don’t even know how much of a joke
it actually is that mooy only hitting
50% of the shots during alternate shot
might somehow in this random universe
that we’re in right now help his win
Equity since we have seen it over and
over again he’s never more than one bad
decision away from absolute implosion I
do think there’s something to be said
about that answer but when you look at
the setup and I know this is not a
Ridder cup and and I know it’s not
exactly the same Viewpoint you’re you’re
trying to make birdies you’re not just
trying to beat one team you’re trying to
beat everybody out there I think this is
a really nice setup for Lowry and Rory
from just them being able to be paired
together it’s a comfortable pairing but
you also get into this where there were
not two golfers that were more ideally
suited to play together than these two
when you talk about alternate shot
Xander and Klay are very similar golfers
we that’s a joke that’s been made in the
space before and I think for bestall
they sometimes have the propensity to
struggle because they are so similar in
these spots to where they both don’t
make birdies when they should make
birdies or they both technically might
struggle on a hole where they they
shouldn’t struggle and you kind of if
you have two players making par on a
spot where you need to be making birdie
then you have too much of Unison on that
team and while Unison is good for
alternate shot it’s not always that
great when you want to talk about best
ball format and for me this is where
mooy and Lowry really excelled Moy when
we look at best ball as aggressive and
freely as he wants to play in best ball
I really think he’s going to be able to
do that because Lowry possessed a top
five grade for me in safety that was out
of 160 golfers and that’s before we even
get to the alternate shot answer that’s
a portion of my model where these two
and this is including Xander and Klay
and this was what was so impressive for
me they lap the field in what my model
expected from them from alternate shots
so you look at Lowry Elite short iron
play where’s one of Rory’s deficiencies
short iron play maoy is going to be an
elite long uh long long iron player
that’s going to help someone like Lowry
he’s is going to hit a ton of Fairways
he’ll put them in the mix maroy can hit
the long iron from there and I also just
think the way that these holes set up
it’s really interesting for alternate
shot because when you look at this a lot
of the holes where I think it will be
more suited towards Rory come play come
into play on the even hole so that’s
going to give them more opportunity on
the par five to have driver in hand
where it removes the mix from him is on
these longer par fours where Lowry’s
going to be able to be the one that hits
the first shot there low is the number
one projected uh difficult par for
scorer from 400 plus yards in my Sheed
and you have a handful from 450 plus
that are very challenging this week so I
think for alternate shot it’s a very
helpful answer because Lowry can put you
in play maoy is going to be able to have
some of those long irons from the
Fairway hopefully in those spots and
then in best ball I am hoping that we
get this situation here to where Rory
can Dominate and be aggressive on these
holes where you can attack and on these
more challenging par fours I trust Shane
Lowry to be able to post a par score or
to give me a number that’s not going to
implode this team so I thought this was
just an ideally suited pairing and when
I’m trying to find somebody here at the
top of the board and you could make the
argument that this is too aggressive for
a tournament like this it’s them it’s
really like Xander and Klay which I
agree I don’t love the for to1 price
that might be an answer that if you can
get that after round one let’s see where
they’re moving in on Friday when we get
more of like a a true feature of them
that I think is going to be beneficial
and I wish that the zalatoris and theala
answer was not a nine to1 give or take
range there because I if you could have
given me a 14 to one or you just just
pushed them a little bit further up
they’re a great team for this format and
I would not be shocked if they won but
I’ve been priced out of the market on
them so I decided to go with the team
that had the most upside and when you
you do something like that we talk about
this all the time Roberto there’s only
so many routes that you can feasibly go
from there it’s a realistic possibility
that you could just send the card and
and call it a day the reason why I
didn’t go that route and you talked
about them already I think Adam hadwin
and Nick Taylor if you want to talk
about two golfers that are just great
for one another they fit every single
format they were inside of the top 10 on
my model from both best ball and
Alternate shot that’s not necessarily an
answer that you would expect out of a
team like that and uh the way that
Taylor is able to strike his his irons
the weight to proximity I have for him
and some of the metrics that I have for
hadwin an alternate shot I thought 40
to1 was just a mispricing there I I
highly considered that matchup that you
talked about and the one reason why I
didn’t put it on my card and I don’t
have a problem for anybody who wants to
bet it because I think you’re on the
right side of that play was probably
just because I’m not as low on Bryce
Garnett as you are um I did make an
answer last week when we talked about it
uh I talked about this with Nick on our
show together and he asked me for a
random play near the bottom of the board
that I thought had actual upside and I
gave Bryce Garnett now Roberto I think
you gave the ultimate answer though this
is not the same course so I if the
market has boosted Garnett too far up
there is an argument to be made that
this price is probably not where it’s
supposed to be for a team in hadwin and
Taylor here who’s underrated um we saw
it last year they nearly won this event
I guess the only concern that I would
throw into the mix of
I mean I’m joking but like you know you
have to at least say it there may be
some PTSD or something that comes into
play with Adam hadwin standing on a
green next to Nick Taylor afraid that
he’s going to get tackled by some
security guard or somebody out there but
outside of that I really don’t have any
concerns with this unit together there
are very few discrepancies in my model
at at least when we’re looking at this
from the high-end golfers in the field
like there were essentially for me two
names that went on opposite ends of the
spectrum hadwin and Taylor were the team
that were the most underrated of all
these teams we’re talking about horel
and Alexander were the most overrated
team which naturally they put them
against each other and that’s why that
became my matchup but if you look at any
of these other teams you know at this
like 40 to1 or better range they’re all
pretty properly priced for the most part
so um I do think Sports books got the
answer correct which is a weird answer
to give for them not being aggressive
here here CU I think they probably would
have released a really good board had
they done such a thing but uh that’s
where I stand there um I don’t know if
you want me to give my my placement bet
that I have Roberto yeah go for it so
this is more of a number grab and I’m
disappointed that Nick is not on this
show to discuss this because this isn’t
Nick’s wheelhouse even more so than mine
this is a player that he has been so
high on compared to public consensus and
hasn’t always worked there have been if
you look recently maybe more of that
highend marks that are coming into play
but I thought M Meisner and Austin
Smotherman for a top 20 plus 275 there
it’s just a number grab situation for me
I I think this floor is extremely low
I’m not necessarily sure I know what to
expect out of Smotherman from what we’ve
gotten recently and uh Mac is one of
those Boomer bus Commodities also to
where Nick has looked genius on one day
where Mack is nearly leading the
tournament and then fast forward into
Friday and he’s shooting the worst round
on the course so so there’s concerns
about that and I don’t think this is for
the faint of heart like you have to know
what you’re getting into here but when
we’re talking a about a plus 275 play
that my model had more in the plus 200
territory that’s enough value for me to
take a shot and just hope that these two
can put it together because if we’re
really serious about this and you kind
of said it best Roberto when you talked
about you know Luke list and Henrik
norlander there are a lot of teams where
I like one end of the equation and the
second end of the equation just gives me
massive concerns and those are the teams
that I’m kind of trying to avoid and
when I have two golfers here with
Meisner and Smotherman that are you know
Fringe top 40 players top 45 players in
most of the ways I built it Smotherman
was a little bit more volatile but had
some high-end marks that’s kind of how
I’m trying to shoot things up the board
this week so it’s a very basic card
there’s not a lot to it but I think
you’re correct there’s going to be more
value to be found as this tournament
starts and uh we can get into that later
on of how we want to attack that and
what’s the best way to do
it yeah so you had a lot of great stuff
there that uh I had a few notes on so
first you noted the way that Klay and
chafl might underachieve on best ball
and I thought those points were very
valid and one of the reasons why I’m a
little bit nervous about attacking this
outright board just
because there is some way where you
handicap the two better golfers against
the other two in best ball and they
don’t shoot the lower score uh so that’s
frustrating but and a little bit
different challenge than I normally deal
with so I’m just not as comfortable
confidently saying I have an edge uh
that way you also noted that those three
teams with zores dalala um mroy Lowry
and Klay shafley and also morawa kyama
are considerably better than the other
ones there’s a reason why th those three
are 13 to1 or shorter and every other
team on the board is 22 to1 or longer uh
with only one team shorter than 271 and
that is hoard and hoard Nikolai and
Rasmus the twins at 22 to1 so one reason
why I also like the top three teams on
the board I really think that one of
those three teams can win this
week is because of the whole luk list
Factor where you got some guys that I’d
like to back but the second guy is going
to weigh them down so much uh on
Alternate shot shots specifically and
also potentially on best ball but
alternate shot
mostly I feel like kley shlay are going
to be able to be better than 25 of the
40 teams no matter what and so there
really are only 15ish teams maybe that
can really beat them so there are a lot
there’s 160 players in the field this
week last week not a ton of the players
from the RBC Heritage are making the
trip over here there only 125 guys who
got their CT tour card last year who
have it this year and then you got the
30 corn fairy tour guys so that’s 155
guys say you got 50 guys out from the
heritage you’ve got a bunch of spots to
get to 160 so we’ve got guys like
norlander and Smotherman who lost their
cards last year you got other guys who
haven’t played on the tour in years like
Russ Cochran who’s playing with Eric
Cole you just got a lot of guys that
can’t win at the bottom of the board
this week whereas in the past Scotty
sheff was 4 to one he’s playing great
golf but he’s got to beat a lot of guys
Dodge a lot of bullets uh who could beat
him especially on a course like RBC
Heritage last week uh of course like
Harbortown last week where it’s shorter
and guys like Bryce Garnett who who hit
the ball way below uh the average
driving distance can contend
but there aren’t that many potential
people who can contend this week so
that’s why I really think there’s value
at the top of the board if you’re a big
fan of any of those top uh three
teams if you want to L A little pizza
money on it and just call it a day I
think that’s the better way of attacking
this board than building up with teams
below 20 to1 I do think that if I was
going to back teams below 20 to1 Taylor
hadwin which you got at 40 to1 has
dropped all the way to 27 to1 at bet 365
so of course be sure to chop around like
the other Canadian Duo of Connors and
pendrith I just don’t know that I trust
Connors to putt um I think hogi mcney
could be an interesting team as well
with the way that hogi hits his iron
shots and mcne can
putt off the tea I have a little bit
more worry about them I don’t know they
have as much upside but if they can take
advantage of best ball I think they
really have a chance this week but I
don’t want to bet on those teams in the
27 to1 price range now
when I could still have a super hameg
team in Rory mroy and Shane Lowry one
other thing to note I’m not big on
motivation or anything like that or
getting into the mental side of the
players because I have no idea really
what they’re going through but one thing
that could potentially take a weight off
of Rory is that the Masters isn’t
looming nobody’s asking about the
Masters right now uh RBC Heritage all
the Bas players in the world were there
last
week it’s not that situation Rory mroy
and Shane Lowry agreed to be teammates
over a drunken lunch after they won the
Ryder Cup I love The Vibes of this team
I love how these guys um how Shane Lowry
might be one of the only guys who can
help Roy mroy make some better good
decisions on the golf course I like that
he’s gonna have less of a penalty for
being too aggressive on his second shots
when Lowry’s gonna be around and even if
Lowry misses the green he’s got a great
short game so I like all these things
for that team and also I think zot Tores
and um dalala might have a little bit
higher floor than mroy and Lowry but I
don’t know that they have the ceiling
that meloy and L have so I’m very
intrigued by all three of these teams
I’m not invested in the outright Market
but I would like to potentially find a
good price on one of those three teams
whether it be in a matchup against
another team or in an outright market
after the first round because I think
that those three teams will really
separate themselves in alternate shot I
also think that hadwin and Taylor will
be really well suited for alternate shot
so I’m going to be looking at them maybe
hoping they’ll underachieve in the first
round yeah I mean I I talked about it
with hadwin and Taylor a little bit they
were one of my best alternate shot teams
that I had and when you look at this
board and I and I like the point that
you brought up there’s a lot of
intriguing options you mentioned a
handful of them I could probably Branch
it out a little bit further and rapid
fire out some names and you know I maybe
I’ll do it in a second but like I don’t
love the prices that you’re having to
pay on a lot of those options to where I
think this Market really got
concentrated and and condensed down into
a range on a lot of these options to
where yes hadwin and Taylor were hit
from sharp money early like there’s
there’s no question about it but at some
point the value is gone and and I I keep
talking about there being 15 20 teams
give or take like it’s those four big
ones that we’re talking about where all
of them are 16 to one or
less I don’t think that the two
Fitzpatrick Brothers can actually win
this contest but my model liked them
they were inside of the top seven for me
like I think that’s a noteworthy return
talked about hadwin and Taylor the Hoy
guard brothers that would be the next
for me so like those are the Elite
options that’s essentially the big seven
inside of my model and then you get this
group of players like Chan Kim and Doug
gim pendrith and Connors Novak and
Thompson McNeely and hogi I like gup and
eek root
um you know Mitchell and Joel Damon you
can make an argument there that they
make some sense like at some point
though like outside of hosler r or maybe
Kevin UCT pan we do lose projected win
Equity like that’s about the final name
that in my mind are actually winning
this contest maybe you could Branch this
out a little bit further than those
options and still find Value there
but I don’t want to get stuck like let
me see if I can find a prime example
here like I don’t want to get
stuck like even even the Meisner and
Smotherman answer as much as my model
likes them they you can find them at 150
to one if you shop around I think
they’re just better suited as a top 20
bet at the numbers you can find them
like like a little bit less less than
three to one and take my chances there
and get my exposure that way and when
I’m only betting to win four units to
begin with on the outright like I’d
rather try to bet to win a unit there
and just be a little bit more aggressive
on something that actually could happen
because we can keep making the argument
people out there that there’s a lot of
volatility to this event and sure there
is when you look at 30 underpar sort of
winners but you’re not necessarily
getting it with the output inside of the
leaderboard where I’ve already mentioned
it the last five years everybody’s 40 to
one or less you’re you’re not getting
this massive uh discrepancy in what the
price tags are even the golfers like
Novak and Thompson here Roberto like
that’s those are names to where the
market is reacting to them they’re
they’re going to probably close sub 50
to one maybe they win this contest and
that’s a very possible scenario but it’s
not like you’re getting a 100 to one on
them and being able to take a shot at
that point so for me it was just be
aggressive with the team I like the most
at the very top with Rory and Lowry
because of the way that they were able
to combine their skill sets together and
then find the one team that I thought
had the best value on the board at the
time at 40 to1 and take them but I I
don’t think this is such a cookie cut or
answer to where you know if you’re
looking right now and and you look at
Taylor and hadwin and the best you have
is 27 and you’re like well there’s no
value in that number they might win and
obviously it could end up backfiring but
I do think there other options out there
that will drift around that you can find
in similar sections that you can get at
40 or 50 to one that have upside so um
I’m not saying that there’s only one or
two teams that can win I guess I’m just
more so giving the answer there’s 20
teams that are significantly better than
everybody else and one of those 20 teams
will probably win this
tournament I agree with that and quick
story on last year’s Champions that you
mentioned were at 40 to1 Nick Hardy and
Davis Riley Hardy is an Alum of Illinois
and the fighting line I have a bunch of
French guys who are really good um one
of them is Thomas dietry he was
originally going to play play with hard
last year via the line ey connection but
rder with it being a Ridder cup year
Luke Donald knew that dietre was one of
the players he was considering and so he
said hey play with Victor Perez another
guy who has a chance to make the team at
the time and so they played together in
this event which meant that Hardy needed
a partner Davis Riley had previously
played with Will zalatoris zalatoris was
out after he underwent surgery to help
his back so they both needed partners
and they said hey why not team up and so
now
they’re the defending Champions after
they teamed up successfully last year in
their first chance together so sometimes
maybe not or so in that case not having
much experience together helped out uh
at least in this event and now they’re
and now will zures who thought hey I’m
gonna come back and be with Davis Ry in
this event next year he needs a partner
so he goes with Sal deala so a little
bit of musical chairs going on there uh
but I thought that was interesting that
those two never really planned on
playing together until it had happened
at relative ly the last moment um I I
also think just on the drie and Robert
McIntyre answer like I I know everybody
thinks of dietre and they don’t think
win Equity but like that’s another team
that I would throw into the mix that
does have a legitimate chance here this
week Fringe top 20 team at the end of
the day and maybe my numbers were a
little bit lower on McIntyre but uh my
math liked how Thomas dietry checked out
and McIntyre has some Elite skills that
he can bring to the mix for them so um
but once again Roberto we’re we’re
talking about options that are more in
that 50 to1 range like we’re just never
getting this boost of a price to where
I’m seeing massive value in the triple
digit
Zone I like that I like that they have
those Elite traits because both because
look at the recipe for Success last year
both Hardy and Davis rally can
absolutely pound the ball and if you get
hot with the Putter and with the short
game they can work out for them and they
both had some upside as well on approach
play um I know we haven’t seen it as
much with David Davis Ry since that
event and Hardy has also gone through
some struggles as well uh neither of
them has a top 10 finish since last year
when they won this tournament so pretty
crazy and they’re shorter than 60 to1 I
know they opened at 80 top L um but I
agree a lot of those teams at 50 to1
that I think have a sneaky chance are
not teams want to bet at 51 they’re 10
to oneish teams in my mind um Spencer
wanted to sneak in that this is a
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apply all right Spencer anything else on
your card or teams that you’d like to
touch on before we get out of
here I think for me um a a unit that
graded very well and I don’t think they
can win this tournament and I would
argue that in best ball format there are
going to be massive concerns and I don’t
know if that means that they missed the
cut for that answer or they and they’re
near the bottom of the board by the way
so this is not like some top tier team
that we’re talking about here but I am
curious when we get to alternate shot
format what is going to happen with Eric
Cole and Russ Cochran I would make an
argument Roberto now this is a wild take
I’m about to say but I’m not so sure
that whoever you have hitting the drives
for Eric Cole will be substantially
worse in those situations like Cole is
not a guy who’s a lead off the tea I
know we’re talking about an older player
here um to where there there’s concerns
of what this team can actually put
together as far as like an upside answer
but I don’t know for alternate shot I I
am very curious to see that if a book
out there places them against one of
these bottom tiered teams and we might
not go that far down the board where
this opens up but I would be curious to
see an alternate shot format what
they’re able to do because to me they’re
one of those
tandems to where they’re a fringe team
that can probably make it to the weekend
if they can just be okay on day one and
then you get to alternate shot and as
I’ve talked about like my model really
likes Eric Cole for this course he’s a
top 10 player for me on his
own I would make the argument that
anybody hitting the drives in some of
those situations isn’t necessarily as
bad and we know he can scramble and he
has the iron proximity that I’m looking
for it’s it’s not going to be
everybody’s cup of tea because I think
most people are going to look at that
and just think that they’re immediately
elim and I don’t know what the optimal
way that I’m even trying to attack them
outside of this alternate shot situation
would be but uh just a team for me that
I found Intrigue on because my numbers
didn’t hate them as a
unit what numbers are you using for R
Cochran uh things that I so first of all
numbers that are from so long ago that
it’s ridiculous because you’re not going
to be getting PGA Tour stuff I went
through by hand and I regressed some of
those totals um an argument could be
made that players like him and Alex
Fitzpatrick and even Rasmus hoard like
maybe I didn’t regress the totals enough
to exactly put you in a spot but I’m not
Roberto talking about a team that I
think is going to go out here in top 10
this tournament I’m more so saying a
team that can potentially make a cut get
into the final 33 teams or better in
ties or a team in alternate shot that
might have a format to where if you
throw them
against let’s just say that they make
the weekend and they end up you know not
doing well on Saturday and they get
there on Sunday and they’re
against a Kevin kizner and a Scott Brown
will just go with the team that’s found
success there that’s near the bottom of
my model and they’re releasing matchups
like I would rather have the Eric colide
and I’m not so sure that they wouldn’t
be the underdogs in that matchup from
everything that we’ve seen from kid or
maybe they wouldn’t be but um it’s kind
of just a spot where I’m not going to be
betting them in matchups against bull
Hustler and Sam Ryder but if you can
find one these options far enough down
the
board that my model doesn’t necessarily
love the output of like aan O’Hara or
Ben Taylor
or you know any of those names like even
like reevy and snaker like I think that
there’s options that they can beat if
you can give them one of those matchups
so wouldn’t promise that books are going
to ever release that I don’t think that
they’re going to be wanting to release
bottom tiered players but to your point
Roberto you’re not going to be pulling
legitimate data uh for really any
anybody like him or and Alex Fitzpatrick
or or Rasmus like I could use some of
the overseas stuff with Rasmus but I I
think that has its own
problems um I don’t like Russ Cochran I
think he’s the worst golf I it’s fair he
he’s 65 years old he he has not finished
in the top 30 on a Champions Tour event
since
2018 that is a longer time ago than I
would like it to be um and he hasn’t
played professionally
really since 2019 on the champions tour
he’s played a couple times there every
year
but I don’t know how you can back Russ
Cochran this week he’s 65 years old um
and it’s not like he’s Tiger Woods at 65
years old he’s or like one of these
great golfers like Bernhard Langer who’s
awesome not like a great PGA Tour player
I think he could be a if he was if if
Bernhard longer was fully healthy and a
partner with Eric Cole this week I would
be they could potentially win I mean
that’s crazy as that sounds but um okay
I’m sure you’re not going to have a name
to give me here and we’re talking about
like inside of my model they
are I mean I essentially capped at 500
to one like numbers have drifted since
that moment but is there a 500 to one
team and and I made this bet with Nick
last week and unfortunately Glover did
not beat Justin Thomas and uh he will be
picking one and done but maybe this is a
good thing for me that like I’ll just
give two options somebody can make a
pick is there a 500 the one team whether
that’s duffner and Kevin
Chapel um Austin cook and his partner
um kizner and brown like are there any
options that you would prefer than that
team for a friendly wager
here
H
um I mean I I think Eric Cole is the
best player among these but I also think
that
Russ Cochran is the worst player among
these so that’s I I would agree um I
think a fair one is let me see
here
on I’ll take uh James Nicholas and
Brandon woo they’re in that in that
range but I also think that uh James
Nicholas is one of the other worst
players he is on um
the he does play on the European tour it
looks like I don’t think he has full
status um and he hasn’t had full St
since 2022 I don’t like actually I don’t
like this he might be the second worst
player in here um I’ll take your choice
just give me a random team uh we can
make a friendly rer with this but you
want to take that team they are like I
mean they’re half the price and I don’t
think either one of these two squads are
winning but they’re they’re half the
price if you want to talk like to me you
probably picked
if we look at this odds
board outside of maybe Springer and
Whitney I would make an argument that
woo and Nicholas are probably the next
best team in that like 200 250 to one
range um May maybe I mean see I don’t
want to give you spawn and Buckley
because I actually think that they’re
good and they might find success this
week so I think that’s going too far up
the board because there’s still a
downside but I mean if you want to say
Brandon woo and Nicholas we could go
that
route um I just I just want somebody
who’s like a pro golfer who plays on
about what about I’m looking I’m trying
to find what’s the worst team of two
guys who are on the PJ tour I think it’s
McCormick and
xang
yeah they are yeah PJ tour players I
think MCC coric is one of the worst on
the PJ tour but um
I’ll take those two because they
are they’re 450 to1 and Cole Cochran is
600 to1 so I think that’s a fair a
relatively Fair
um they’re in the same range but I don’t
you’re gonna be wildly disappointed when
when Cole finds a way to make a cut
here by the end of s Sunday night if he
makes a cut we’re going to have to help
him out because he’s his back’s going to
be in trouble well if they make the cut
they’re probably coming in in near the
bottom but I I still stand by my
narrative I think for alternate shot if
he can hit half the balls and and I
don’t necessarily think any person that
you’re going to pair him with that’s on
whatever tour we want to talk about Eric
Cole is not an elite driver of the golf
ball like if Eric Cole could hit a
driver Eric Cole would be a top 10
player in the world yeah he doesn’t want
me hitting the ball I can promise you
that I went I went to and I’ve made this
joke before that I I am not a good
golfer and I don’t play golf I went to a
dick Sports um sporting place and they
had a simulator up and there was nobody
around and I decided to quickly grab a
driver put a ball on a te and take a
swing before anybody was watching with
it and my girlfriend was around watching
and she hasn’t seen me swing a golf club
and I’m like ah I I’ll impress her with
this I kid you not this ball must have
gone negative yardage like it went
straight up straight to the right and
behind me and I turned behind and the
worker from Dix is back there just
shaking his head pointing to get out and
I left in shame with that it wasn’t a
good swing Roberto but if you put me
with Eric Cole massive problems they’re
going to come in last if you can put
somebody that can just hit it I don’t
know just give me 230 in the center of
the Fairway and I’ll let Eric Cole take
it from there if you made it this deep
in this podcast past Russ Cochran and
Shan O’Hare and everybody else you are a
special being um we’re going to have
Nick and I are going to have have to set
the line on Spencer’s ball speed next
week on the pond um last year Club speed
is great I I swing hard it just the ball
goes
nowhere last year I didn’t get to bet
this tournament because I did the
broadcast for PJ Tour live and one of
the teams I I’ll pull up the exact
results here um because it was very
special one of the teams in the field
that found their way onto our feature
groups was John Dy
and
um
sorry last year one of the teams was
John Daly and David Duval and they
somehow found their way into our feature
group coverage and they shot uh 75 in
best ball which was pretty horrific and
then in the next round it got even worse
because it’s alternate shot and I don’t
think they broke 80 and they didn’t get
particularly close I think they were
like N9 over through n or something
really rough those guys looked really
old at in their mid-50s I think Russ
Cochran’s going to be way way out of
position Tom John Daly popped up a drive
Spencer style off the first te on Friday
and it went about 180 yards uh missed
the Fairway it was a 400 yard hole they
had over 200 yards in it was not a good
look I think was the club speed
impressive that’s the question like we
know John Daly is gripping it and
ripping it Club speed was impressive
ball speed not so much um I think Russ
Cochran I don’t know how he got into
this field this is kind of this is
unfortunate I wish we had some more
competitive golfers because it would be
a lot more fun to have a bunch of guys
from the corn fairy tour playing this
week than some guys like Russ Cochran
who have no chance of on his own making
a cut on the challenge tour and it’s
rough um Eric Cole with like according
to my model and and maybe this is being
too reliant on one player where this is
still team golf at the end of the day
and you’re only as good as your partner
and that’s the unfortunate truth to this
if you gave Eric
Cole anybody realistic here I
legitimately think that price when it
entered at like 50 to one would have
been one of the best bets on the board
and as I keep saying I’m not making the
argument that they’re going to
necessarily win it’s just I’m going to
say that they surprise everybody and
make a cut and uh maybe day one proves
to not be that answer if in best ball
that they can’t put it together and the
problem is you’re going to have to make
birdies then you might need Eric Cole to
be five underpar himself mhm but I think
Eric Cole can do that I think this is a
ideal course for
him I I I’m bullish on Eric Cole and
last year he was the only player to make
the Tour Championship top 30 players on
the PJ tour for the season long uh
points list who was below average and
both driving accuracy and driving
distance and I don’t think it’s an
overreaction to say that he would be a
top 10 15 player in the world if he had
a reliable driver um Spencer where can
the people find your work this week
covering dessert classic of New Orleans
well I I will say this Roberto now that
I’ve given that play out to everybody um
I probably will have some NFL draft
content that gets released in the space
for for anybody out there and numbers
are quickly moving there are they’re
still available at some books one of my
favorite bets towards the under if you
can find it would be JC leam uh the
offensive tackle there under his over
under total out there whether that’s 14
and a half 15 depending on exactly where
you can get it I know this is a wild
statement to be given I do think that
there are certain ways that this board
could shake out to where the Chargers
could shock everybody at five and take L
them there that was a ticket that I
punched at 100 to one originally that
number has been depleted down to 14 to1
now so I think there’s legitimate money
that’s been pushing it down outside of
just my bet but uh NFL content is always
my favorite obviously for here for the
Zurich uh my model’s over at Roto baller
I will have an article out tomorrow at
Action Network and all the in tournament
stuff will be dropping there where uh
last week I had the biggest head-to-head
play that I had released so far this
season from an in tournament bet when I
took Russell Henley over Tom Kim on
Sunday you could find that on Action
Network like everybody always asks me
like where are the plays for the most
part other than one night you can get
them at action so always check back
either on Thursday and Friday and then
on Saturday the play will always be
there if you do want want to get an idea
of what that option is and uh um that’s
always been my bread and butter Roberto
as you know awesome I’m really excited
to see it because we’re not going to
have two consecutive rounds in the same
format so there will be some reactions
overreactions perhaps that we can take
advantage of and spenc is going to have
the first look on it uh from for us here
at Action Network so very excited to
check those out and I know myself I will
be
refreshing my apps on Thursday night
trying to capitalize on the alternate
shot portion uh as for you can find me
on Twitter Roberto
a213 I will continue editing everything
here at Action Network as far as golf
content goes so very excited for this
week got some long shots already out
there we got our Best Bets live
Spencer’s gonna have his card uh
dropping tomorrow we’ve got Josh Perry
who’s been dropping Global Golf bets
where he’s been hitting on guys to win
on the South Africa on the South Africa
tour um he’ll have bets on up to eight
nine tours in a given week it’s
absolutely ridiculous I have no idea how
he does it but it’s really cool and I
think there’s legit legit edges to be
found out there uh just because there’s
less data and if you really follow it
like he does it’s pretty cool so I learn
a lot following him and then we’ve also
got some other content around live golf
this week with them in Adelaide that was
an Electra tournament last year I think
it should be pretty fun this week so a
lot of golf going on in the world we
will have it for you here at Action
Network so be sure to tune in to us uh
also you mentioned NFL draft week got a
bunch of content on that it’s also the
NBA Playoffs which is something that I
put a lot of time into so very excited
about that listen to buckets if you’re
not already subscribed wherever you get
your podcast those guys do it every
single day during the playoffs so I
listen all year round but if you haven’t
already jumped on board listen to
buckets Matt Moore and crew have you
covered there and then of course we got
you in the Action Network app as well
Best Bets every day uh a lot of sharp
guys really helping out for Action
Network MBA so very proud to be a part
of that coverage as well excited for
this week and next week it will be the
CJ cup Byron Nelson in Dallas I’ll be on
the broadcast for that for PJ Tour live
so I’m excited to hear what you and Nick
have I might go crazy do another power
ranking like we did for the Masters
because I can’t bet can’t give any
content but I’ll have like a power
rating or something um that I’ll cook up
so I’m excited for next few weeks in
sports should be a blast want to give a
big thanks to everybody who helps make
this podcast possible especially our
producers no anah Hofer uh Matt Mitchell
and David Payne want to give thanks to
everybody at home for listening and
here’s the hoping you hit the green this
week at TPC Louisiana for