2024 Zurich Classic DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Weather, Final Bets | Team Golf DK Strategy

Pat Mayo and Skylar Hoke discuss Sky’s move to ETR before digging into his research of the proper roster constructions and ownership from the Zurich Classic the past few years on DraftKings and why he like the PGA Tournaments with alternate rules from a DFS perspective. Plus, the run through there bets for the week and discuss how much weather has played a factor this golf season vs others.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:57 Sky To ETR
4:21 Zurich DraftKings Strategy
7:53 Bets — PGA
12:36 Team Skills you Want
16:39 Bets — LIV/DPWT
20:07 DraftKings Picks/Lineups
39:51 Weather Strategy this season

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experience P Mayo
experience experience welcome to the pat
Mayo experience presented by Underdog
fantasy use code Mayo at Underdog
fantasy right now and you will get a
match deposit of up to $100 we’re
talking through the DraftKings picks for
the Zurich Classic of noin also the bets
maybe some weather chat and it’s a
unique week because it’s a team format
on DraftKings and we only get so many of
these a year and frankly I mean I’m
going to include myself of this bucket
that I just don’t really know how to
play them all that well we figured out
match play and then they got rid of
match play so that was no fun and
whenever there’s one of these weeks I
mean most of the content industry for
golf has either taken a vacation week
they’re doing less content God knows
that I have been doing less content this
week I did the BET show with Jeff we’re
doing this show but I had an NFL Mock
Draft that came out I talked strategy a
little bit later too Friday I will be
coming it’s not going to be live but
we’re going to record super early on
Friday morning me cust and Jeff as a
reaction to the first round of the NFL
draft mainly Chargers Jets and other
random things that happen talk but it’s
on too late here to do it live and I
don’t want to compete live with a whole
bunch of other shows I’d rather let them
sleep on stew on their takes for a
little bit come with some fire and we’ll
have that out as early as possible on
Friday morning so please go support that
smack smash like to the episode while
you’re here sub to Mayo media Network
And subscribe to the newsletter I’m not
done making bets for the week yet so the
final bets will be in there maybe I am
done making bets for the week I don’t
know I mean unless Sky convinces me to
fire off on someone else here all the
guys that I wanted to bet on at good
odds had now all have terrible odds and
none of the guys at the higher odds
moved whatsoever it’s just like the
market collapsed on itself in a really
weird weird way Sky Hoke is joining us
from the show you may know him obviously
from the Mayo media Network on the DP
World Tour picks and bet show every
Monday night when there’s an event with
Tom Jacobs but he’s also over at
establish theer run.com ET right now and
I can think of no better sight guy for
you to be involved with for what you do
the best in DFS golf so
congratulations no that means a lot Pat
thank you I really appreciate it and it
has been a welcome there it’s been you
know my first time really going back
into committed content you know around
the clock you’ve been so you know nice
with with Tom and I for years giving us
the opportunity to to bring that and
spread the good word about the the DP
World Tour um which has been a really
good year so far have have loved it um
over there too but yeah with ETR just
being kind of a glue guy filling in
where the projections and context kind
of needed a little bit of um bolstering
up um to kind of spread that good word
on guys telling stories across the world
that get their opportunities on the PGA
tour so really like doing that so far
and especially when we get to these type
of weeks cuz it’s definitely not your
standard plugin play optimize Sim you
know it’s it’s it’s a new week so do you
find that you whether it works out or
not do you find that you have more of an
advantage in a week like this than you
would over a standard week because not
only is it a new format that people have
to figure out on the Fly especially even
when it comes to something like using
the data like there’s no data on this
event basically whatsoever so it’s a lot
of guesswork of how guys are doing and
why they’re successful in these types of
formats additionally fewer people seem
like they’re paying attention or playing
so if someone says hey this is a good
play they’re going to get overweighted
in the market massively as opposed to a
regular week when so many people are
doing work yeah I think it’s absolutely
you know it’s going to take some time I
don’t think i’ those fruitions have come
into like a GPB takedown at a match play
type of style or the Zurich but I think
putting you know the dice and the right
the the right play basically yes I think
these are the weeks overall and the data
has you know that’s been something
Thursday morning right at 7:15 a.m.
every week you can find those tweets out
there I was able to do some study this
year on kind of the past three years of
how to approach the Zurich and I was
actually a little bit um surprised at
the results compared to the way I
probably have played it in the past I
think it on the surface level of course
is an event that’s going to have more
chaos than the typical type of week and
it’s also an event
that
um what’s the best it’s as much as we
can Data Drive it and try to figure out
who’s going to tee off on what hole in
this I don’t think the players care or
get that deep into the Weeds on it like
I don’t think they are saying from a
data standpoint you know Bob McIntyre
needs to tea off on whole 11 versus
Thomas D Tree and like they just show up
I think a lot of times they’re just
showing up and hope they play well where
we probably get that wrong sometimes in
the data too so I think I’ve learned
that
you you don’t need to be as unique as I
probably approached it in the past
leaving thousands on the table picking
the randoms at the bottom end I do think
a lot of these teams are just more dead
than I anticipated sometimes and you
might need to find that one or two you
know 6K team that gets you there but
more often than not these top end teams
have played quite well in this event so
essentially you have to figure out who
to fade from that top end and kind of
coales around the one or two teams that
you really do think are going to do well
so what I’ve seen so we’ve you know
through the years there’s
been they they repriced it 2021 was the
first year they had nine teams over 10K
that year and it kind of threw things
off so this year is way more typical of
2022 and 2023 where there’s been eight
teams that have priced over 10K seven of
those eight teams have made the weekend
there’s been 22 teams out of um 8,500 to
to 10K and it was 19 of those 22 teams
have made the weekend last year H and
morawa was the only team above 8,500
that missed the cut and it’s only a 33
team cut right it’s a smaller field with
still a substantial cut so with that
many teams playing well and basically
ultimately meaning less lower teams make
the weekend six of six perents have been
really really low every single year
single digits is probably going to
repeat without a doubt and so yes if you
can find I would probably say if you can
make a stand on a chalk team that you
don’t think is going to do well and kind
of live maybe on those mid-range teams
that are coming in not as the standout
plays but maybe in the the low teens or
high single digits like that’s the best
way to get unique versus like try to
think that Russ Cochran is going to
carry Eric Cole to like a a T9 finish
this week like that’s not happening you
know I I want to go see who Dylan woo
was playing with just to see if he can
ride off the fumes of arguing with Jeff
but apparently he’s playing with Jack
Nicholas which probably isn’t going to
work out well for
him he’s he’s somebody that he has a DP
World Tour card so you can’t you know
fight too much with the old Nicholas um
there but yeah man there’s there’s just
teams that they they can’t I I just
don’t think without a doubt like there’s
been one I think it was like one 6K team
that came in like under 10% in the last
like three years that like performed to
a degree like you’re going to need to
find those and I don’t think teams end
up getting super concentrated like we’ll
talk about the cooties without and I was
worried I always write up like the
lowend plays that I like I was worried
the cooties might get steam because we
we like to talk about them right but I
still think based off roster
construction they’re not going to get
out of control and I’d feel confident
that you can find that 6K team at a
reasonable ownership just don’t go wild
with like three above n 9500 and three
below because it’s just impossible to
get everybody through the cut all right
so let me run through the bets I’ve made
so far for the week uh nothing has
really changed honestly since Monday
when I was getting the bets in in the
first place I really regret not betting
hadwin and Nick Taylor at the moment
because they were 40 to1 when I first
looked I think they’re like 20 to one or
something crazy right now but I have the
coties I have them both at 200 to1 and
150 to1 with the five placements I
played everyone with the placements just
try to get them up there so I have them
I have SMY and Schmidt at 90 to1 with
the top five and more and nemith with
the top five who are you looking at from
the back end or maybe even as one of the
favorite teams cuz the first team that
did initially leap off to me is I
thought that morawa and kittama would be
a really good team together I like them
a lot I thought those early 16s were
were very nice I think it’s kind of
settled in the twelves which I still
don’t mind if that’s the one team you
feel confident of the top I think their
skill sets I mean they’ve been kyama has
been ball striking like like vintage
morawa you know like they’ve been
playing to that angle he just can’t make
a putt so if Colin can keep the putting
rolling I would agree there um I mean
there’s a substantial Gap from those top
four teams I think to the other ones the
market you know shows that I didn’t mind
really like I was pretty impressed the
way you know M McNeely showed up at some
of the bigger events I know that the
fear is on the holes of you know hogi
having to chip around the green like I’m
wondering though like on those type of
teams like can you just pray for par you
know what I mean like hogi puts them to
like 12 feet and mcneely’s got to save
it for for a par save and then you
Birdie the other holes when Tom you know
does avoids a nine like he did to close
out Heritage and and screw a lot of
people over you know like if if that’s
in play so I didn’t mind the hogi
McNeely team the one that I I’ve been
there there’s I guess kind of three that
I think that I’m on at long odds um I
love Rico Ho’s game right
now you don’t need to sell me anymore I
mean last
week I’m so in him yeah and I mean
Justin s has been can can you give any
insight to what he was practicing on at
TP Summerland was he on The Greens at
all or was he just trying to figure out
these irons because it’s it’s been bad
from ball striking for him oh he was he
was just sitting on the greens just
making every single putt Scott Pierce he
was there too missing every single putt
like just man like we know you can putt
like that’s fine like go out and hit a
few wedges please yep so I I love that
team though Hoy Hoy he had three Eagles
last week still finished t33 three he’s
been basically been after 54 holes like
in a spot to cash in each way in like
four of the last five events for him so
I think that team um is someone I like a
lot the other one um I I sneakily think
like one of the more under the radar
years I didn’t anticipate on the PGA
tour and it finally came to fruition uh
last week with a top 20 but I think
Jorge campio could like fit this type of
course pretty well I mean he he picks up
wins on the DP World Tour he is a really
good short gamer similar to that Hoy saw
team I mean not in the the games but
like saw had such a good year Norman was
so good in 2023 neither of them have
done anything so far this year Norman
played really good at the Zurich last
year and that kind of kicked him off so
like those are probably two I like the
coties um but I think like those are are
two for sure bets for me at this this
stage yeah for for me with the coties it
just made a lot of sense like why are we
I get that Matt Fitzpatrick is on the
team but Alex Fitzpatrick’s like he’s
okay like he’s a yeah he’s what Rico Hoy
is to the PGA Tour but on the DP World
Tour yep 100% And they’re priced like
crazy yes yeah because he has Matt with
him I I completely understand that like
I don’t understand why they were
initially priced above the Hoy guards
like the cies are basically discount Hoy
guards but when I went and did like so
when I started running through some of
the stats and everything like that like
I was going to bet them regardless of if
I can make a statistical case for them
or not because I think it’s funny and
listen probably no one besides the Hoy
guards in this field has played more
golf with and against each other I mean
they’re twins the Hoy guards are twins
like how often do you think the
fitzpatricks have actually played team
golf together yeah I mean the age
separation and like I guess I don’t know
with Rasmus and Nikolai like Cy’s
grandparents like played on the PGA tour
you know like those kids have been
playing golf since they could walk I I I
definitely love that and I’m hoping what
you’re stay statistical I think they
line up really well with each other well
this is the big question that I have for
you and I I guess this is the big
question that everyone needs to try to
answer for themselves this week is what
do you actually want in a team do you
want two guys whose games completely
mirror each other so they can super take
advantage of everything in best ball
being in the same spots it was always
who the hell did ROM play with the very
first Palmer no no before that the very
I think he played with Wes
Bryan let’s see yeah that makes yes
Wesley Bryan yes yeah and I was like
well that team doesn’t make any sense
because now it’ll be great for Bryant
when he’s hitting approach shots and ALT
shot because he’s going to be hitting
like wedges from like wherever but Rah
is just going to be discombobulated
trying to hit from 18 miles back where
he’s just not so used to hitting and
listen if they had won we’d be making
the reverse case for it like it’s a one
sample to go with opposing skill sets
here but with both the cooties Pearson
mashes it off the tea and actually makes
a ton of putts whereas Parker is really
good with his irons and really good
around the greens and not so great on
the greens or off the tea and accuracy
unless you hit it into the water seems
to me an absolutely nothing at TPC
Louisiana yeah I I think it’s more of
like a um like a PJ National right where
like just make sure you’re out of the
danger spots yes but so I think it I
think it differs from where you’re
betting on the board I think I mean at
the end or like far down there you’re
not even if they are comparable
like similar type of games they’re just
two probably not great players right so
I think at that stage like I prefer the
altering like I’m super interested in
Aldridge pocker and thrist Lawrence
because pocker hits at a mile and
thristan is better the rest of the way
in right so like the the nine holes you
worry about is thristan teeing it off
and then how is how is aldrid going to
be able to get an iron close to the
green type of thing but I think that
skill set for me alternating is is kind
of the way I look at it or people I
don’t know that maybe have just shown
some recent Pops I mean I do think there
is a lot of guesswork right like but
potentially near the top I would rather
have them play the same game because
they’re so good and like a kyama morawa
fits that mold like zator thala is so
opposite of that that even though
combining them is like best player in
the world type of thing I don’t know if
that plays out the best in a in a
pairing format with the way that you
described how to construct teams we’ll
construct some teams here in a minute
that it almost has to be not necessarily
a balanced build but it’s not going to
be like I I like to build the the four
like four good players two crappy
players like that the 42 doesn’t seem to
be the build here the 51 it’s going to
be like 110k 1 9k 1 18K 3 7ks that seems
to be what the strategy has Beed out
right yeah and it worries me because I
don’t I don’t love that because it ends
up being like super duped but then I I
looked at the last the last five years
uh or last three years of the top five
lineups not a single lineup was duped
every single lineup spent at least
$49,400 cumulative ownership just didn’t
go above 100% so you can’t just Jam like
you know can’t lay X and then probably
go r to you know I I like Schmid and uh
SMY but I think they’re going to be
super popular I mean your bets are are
truthfully probably the ones that end up
getting steamed a little bit just
because they make sense when you look at
like why was Taylor Moore where he is
based off how he’s playing like I don’t
think we can land those three but these
guys still stayed unique even with an 80
person team so I I’m pretty confident we
can run that approach and get different
than one or two spots and and just not
like have to live like
down the sixks for two or three guys for
sure so before we get to building some
DraftKings teams on live I bet Louie
Reed and charl I put charl up with the
top five each way and then I tailed Tom
on some guy he was like yeah I’m betting
them 400 to one or something so I like
all right I’m in Taka hero
Haiti Hatachi um for the one he’s on or
that one yeah for the for the isps Henda
championship Tom and I have the most
crossover I think we’ve ever had overall
on the on the year we each have four of
the same C golfers for us so like we are
but what sucks is like the DP World Tour
has taken off you know a month and then
they only play for two weeks and then
three more weeks and now we combine it
with the Japanese golf tour he like
somebody at 750 that’s got some really
good course form overall um you know
they they played this course on the
Japanese golf tour the last 10 years
basically um the one that I like that’s
going to be the names in which you might
recognize Shugo is back in our life
Shugo Imahara so I really like him he
won on this course last year on the
Japanese golf tour he’s showing life he
would be the one of the Japanese golf
tour guys um and then I have a long shot
that was 300s UDA sugua um he is um he
was in the mix or or won the you know
they play that big event that Dunlap
Phoenix where they bring over like
Brooks plays there Brooks was in there
yes all those guys were in there he won
that event at 22 years old 300 to1 for
him in this event like it’s a lot of
guess work but um yeah we have some
bombs on our card we don’t start until
the 70s and it has been a good year
overall so hopefully we keep it rolling
what was that name again uh last name is
sugura so s uui r a UDA is the first
name okay UDA G 100 he’s 125 to one now
I think some of the like European
tipsters were on like CO’s on him too I
believe um he open like 300 400s on
Monday yeah so we’ll get UDA Pap pasugo
and Tom’s long shot yeah
hati hati Tom never Ventures that deep
into the board so I was proud of him
yeah so we’ll go with those guys that’ll
be fun to wake up to and have them all
be dead uh there was some I forget who I
tailed you guys on at the Indian open it
was someone who was a super bomb and he
had a terrible day one but I think he
was the best player in the field after
that he ended up becoming like ninth or
something yeah we had there was one of
our long shots finished like dashing
each way ver alawa like he did really
good um Indian open I think he was like
300s or so we I mean there’s been a few
places we almost had the you know the
infamous Robin Williams win on the DP
World Tour he lost in a playoff from the
dead you know so we’ve had I mean these
events I feel really bad like I’ve never
put myself as much in the shoes as the
golfers are like these guys that battle
through Q School to get spots like
they’re not even getting starts half the
time over there like they’re having to
take three months off at a time and it’s
just no progression at all so it’s
thankfully Been a Good Year but like
it’s just St and stop is getting
frustrating for him I can most
definitely see that let’s jump over to
DraftKings right now and try to build
some lineup out so where do you think
that we should start with all of this
cuz I I do think that regardless of what
happens like Klay and X are gonna be the
team that everyone goes to right yes
100% 100% and rightfully so I think I I
think this week from like a it’s more of
an mme week for me versus like taking
big stands like I think it’s difficult
to do if you have them against the
market I I would recommend you do it but
yeah I can’t imagine being low on the
field to can’t LX last year they came
in four see I think they came in fourth
but ownership wise they were 50% as a
team last year at 11,00 so that’s the
only fear is that that feels very very
owned and I guess they were playing
better last year compared to this point
right but kley was there last week yeah
and it’s not like Xander’s been playing
poorly either no no so I mean they’re
going to get the most C without a doubt
maybe I’d set the the ET or the the over
under at like 40 for him all right so
let’s let’s see if we can build the
chest lineup possible so we’ll go with
Klay and Xander to start who do you
think like the down below team is going
to be this
week okay so I would
think I mean I think it has to be
smallie Schmid I’ll effort this on
fantasy National I got to Star some guys
first and you can still generate all
your lineups on fantasy National oh by
the way you you were you’ve been using
the app right yeah the app’s amazing I
told you pre-show like it’s the best way
to sweat because you can see I mean the
point you made of not having to refresh
it just constantly does it personally I
like to I don’t want to say I’m a
pessimist with my golfers but it’s nice
to know when they’re sitting over an 8
foot putt that it’s still a coin flip
even though we think they’re going to
make it every single time so I love the
ability of knowing what they’re going to
score you know what’s the likelihood
they’re going to get up and down from
here be able toggle I I think uh um the
the ability to group by like Showdown or
or like main slate lineups you could you
can customize a lot on there so it’s
it’s a huge ad I love it yeah I’m glad
you like it it’s available now to all
fantasy National members for IOS and
Android right now fantasy national.com
Mayo in order to get that 20% off and
you know listen Sky recommends it I
would suggest that you go do it so
here’s what we’re looking at for
ownership just on fantasy National right
now how many people like only 800 people
have generated lineup so far like just
people don’t care about this week
whatsoever no and but the the contest
like I’m shocked once again you know
150k to first like they they’re
delivering big contests again so I
wonder if they’re going to overlay but
I’ll I’ll take it if so so the the top
teams that have been generated so far
and again this is a pretty small sample
so it’s tough to say klays and it only
gives you one of the names for the
ownership so it just doesn’t sit out
there to confuse you but it’s can’t lay
X Hog’s team Taylor Moore Davis Thompson
weirdly enough and then dialon woo at
74 okay I like uh I don’t mind that
Davis Thompson team actually they’re
kind of that that skill set right that
alternates the D they’re kind of priced
into a weird range at 8100 like versus
like a n Smith Moore I mean I I think
the the three first clicks have to be
Klay n Smith more SMY Schmid like as the
three and then you’re left with just
under 8K you know for the final three
like I think those are the three most
popular teams as of now all right so
that’s what I have in right now so yeah
you have
7966 left per team all do you think we
should go to Billy horel coming off a
win Tyson Alexander has not been playing
poorly at all like he’s not good but
he’s not bad at the same time like Billy
won this as a part of a team he’s won
this as a single in 2014 obviously he
likes this course and now he’s in great
form yeah that’s just a lot for Tyson
Alexander right like he’s got to be the
worst player in the eight case do you
think yeah I mean I guess Daniel Burger
is in the AK right now um shots fired
Daniel Burger geez but I guess right
he’s done nothing since he came back um
so the the two teams in the sixes that
are showing ownership right now are the
cooties yeah and Jimmy stanger’s team
who is he playing he’s playing with
someone like R right isn’t he yeah he’s
playing with deont jar like I think that
would be the one in the 6ks that that
outside of the coie Bros that I would I
would worry about but I don’t even know
if you need to like click there that’s
the yeah so let’s let’s try to cap it at
the bottom then so the the SMY let’s say
SMY Schmidt is
the worst team that we go with at 7200
bucks if we’re trying to fill this out
chalk wise like I said this Carson young
team seems to be getting a little bit of
love it looks like but like these
numbers could be way off at the same
time too cuz we’re recording this
earlier than normal and I think people
are just clicking
buttons yeah I I would I would click I
could see that Novak Thompson team
looking around the teams around them
like Novak’s had a great year Thompson’s
been popping I like the Chan Kim Doug
gim team like I could maybe see that
being clicked a little bit uh were you
surprised that the the Wallace thorbjorn
team got no
love yeah they’re kind of slept under
right like quality I mean what has
Wallace really been I thought Thorn was
decent at the Masters has Wallace really
done much lately yeah thorbjorn was
decent at the Masters for like two
rounds and then he went away he had a
terrible day three yeah he has like
Wallace was 17th at Valspar he’s been
terrible off the tea but like he
generally shows up in like crappy events
that that’d be like one take on him but
or like even Joe heith and Andrew
putam I like I like those guys I think
those guys are I’ve been B heith are at
least tracking him quite a bit like
missed a cut last week I think when if
the wind’s up like heith is a is a
player that that plays the best in tough
conditions
overall okay that’s interesting not what
I would have thought from him but yeah
it actually kind of shows that if it’s a
really easy or really hard he’s good if
it’s just like normal he’s kind of
terrible yeah because he like it really
well with the farmers right like early
on in the year um a lefty too but I
guess if I’m picking the next team in
like I I think
I think I would go Novak Thompson all
right so Novak but now we’re really
missing out on these like 9k guys right
but I I I think that’s where the
difference is this week I’m not sure the
9ks I think because the top four teams
are so good or such separators that
they’re going to be clicked at a way
above rate I think the 9ks if you want
to get unique and spend a lot of salary
this is where you have to live okay so
because you didn’t bet any of the 9ks
right no but I wanted to bet like I I’m
circling the drains on hogi and McNeely
and Taylor and hadwin yep y hell I don’t
think they get clipped I don’t think I
don’t think I I like the the set Garnett
team Garnett’s been good and so was sep
and sep like I know that you mentioned
PGA
National maybe that’s why Keith
Mitchell’s been so good here over the
years like that was the other team that
I was kind of being like H I can see
like Mitchell’s come top six too of the
past three years
all I think every single time with a
different partner he just seems to excel
here and if we’re talking about t green
or just simply ball striking those two
guys over the past two months have been
really good yeah Keith has been like
vintage like sheffler from from an iron
standpoint you know like I I I agree and
what I wish he would have been back with
I loved the sunj team that they had last
year I wish they would have came back
especially after sunj showed some life
last week for the first time in a while
um yeah I mean that’s the way in my had
like you’re you’re right it’s not
typical PGA National or or typical like
Pete Dy like Precision is everything
like I don’t think you can just rip the
driver but um there’s definitely danger
right in that playoff hole didn’t um he
was it was it Lou or charl that just
sent it in the water to to lose to Smith
that year yeah Louie L Louie sent it off
they lost to Smith and Lehman yeah also
another good way to do this uh I noticed
from that year I think five of the top
six on the leaderboard all went to live
including Peter Uline who was in third
place that year so if you can project
out who you think is going to live then
maybe that’ll be a little bit easier to
go through but it’s funny that
everyone’s going to gravitate towards
Klay and Xander I have a feeling that
Rory and Lowry might come in under
around like I I’m speaking from personal
experience as someone who bets and plays
Shane Lowry every week I I just can’t
anymore and Rory is like habitually like
under owned over clicked not not there
like last week he seemed like a terrible
course fit seemed like something that
wouldn’t make sense so I get it but like
he just I I would I like getting above
the field in in that standpoint for sure
I I think why would they play it if they
don’t I mean Rory needs something Roy
definitely needs like a win badly and
this would be a fun one to pick up for
him and yeah I think that you’re right
that it does seem like maybe and as you
mentioned before it’s not like these
guys are planning out like well I need
to I need to te off first today so I can
take advantage of holes 8 12 and 16 will
you get the preference on these like
they are just probably going out
drinking or gambling in New Orleans the
night before and showing up to the
courts yes it’s kind of why you know
Tommy tables you know hogi might play
even better here it’s a perfect
environment and he needs to get some
some winnings back after the way Sunday
finished oh I mean he he owes me some
winnings from Sunday as well with the
way that finish with the Quin Tipple
bogey he he has to win either next week
or at Colonial like those are the two I
have circles where Tom hogi if he’s
going to win this season it’s going to
be at one of those two places yeah so I
as we’re talking through it I think you
can make like realistic arguments on
like these teams that are not that bad
of plays but I really I mean I could go
let me pull this up as we talk like
looking into the 9ks where did ownership
shake out last year overall because I’d
imagine those 10K teams were super
strong last year too so if I went into
the 9ks what we see last
year is so SEIU and Tom Kim were the
best performers last
year the highest owned team was horel
and burns and that was at 22% outside of
that no one in the 20s Ryan lipsky were
low owned Hustler and Windam were low
owned um relative to an 80 person field
like and they I think the nks is where
we differentiate all right so let’s do
that let’s take out Xander and Klay as a
team
and play Garnett and
straa hogi and mcne and Taylor and
hadwin
instead yeah like that that
feels uh I mean all these lineups were
like not the lineups that won were not
like terrible lineups at all they
weren’t off the- walls they weren’t
anything crazy like one or two each year
maybe snuck in but yes I mean getting to
that point I think we can we can play
good teams and still come in unique so I
I I guess I mean I did bet Taylor Moore
to win with Matt neith Matt neith would
be the worst player who’s ever won this
tournament if that does happen actually
Jonas blicked one year one with Cam
Smith he he’s teeing up on the DP World
Tour these days you know B is I think I
think he’s a thousand to one this week
on the DP World Tour good for him that
leaves us 7500 if we just keep
everything the same so we go Garnett
straa hogi mcney Taylor and hadwin with
small and Schmitt and more and N Smith
and it leaves us 7500 bucks to play with
we could play last year’s winners we
play coocher and
Stricker I think I I would take coocher
and Stricker in the head-to-head versus
piery and Harry Hall after especially
what you said um you know with with
Pier’s putting lower and and I think
lower now there was some conversation on
on your Monday show about the Woos Dylan
Woo is playing with Justin laow Brandon
Woo is playing with Jack Nicholas so so
now I’m doing what Jeff Jeff Jeff’s now
in my head about all this stuff yes yes
but I I think Low’s been pretty decent
in like these birdie Fest type of events
overall he’s been on leaderboards you
know he led the API like into into late
Friday so um I think that would be my
click there that or I was even thinking
about Chandler Phillips and Bridgeman I
I wrote them up Bridgeman’s been good I
think Bridgeman’s a good
player and Phillips Phillips can win
like Phillips is more Boomer bust last
year last year Bridgeman in like he had
14 top 20s in like 24 starts at the corn
fa I think Bridgeman is a is a decent
player that’s just blooming a little
late he’s had a top 30 in five or four
of his past five starts or six starts
like that’s not bad yeah and he held
they’re not gonna get clicked no and
he’s now in the Brian Stewart Chris
Stroud Zone that I can’t tell the
difference between Joe heith or Max
gracer or like there’s like five guys
who are all exactly the same guy
Chandler Phillips is weirdly one of
those guys too so yeah maybe for this
lineup that we’re going through right
now we can throw him in and that team
just listen they might not be as good as
Dylan woo and Justin low but I don’t
think there’s that big of a difference
no no and that’s why it’s like hard to
make stands because I really don’t think
there is that much difference on on a
lot of guys like there’s the separators
up top or if you want to get unique and
fade I mean that’s the the only hard
part if you don’t go into the 10ks so if
you like let’s see out of the last three
years somebody in the 10
case three of the top 10 teams Fantasy
Point wise were the 10ks last year two
of the top 10 teams in 2022 were out of
the 10ks last year so like the top teams
do produce it just might be impossible
to roster all of them together right
like that is the the situation we run in
and you’re going to get a five of six do
you like the gala and zal or morawa and
kittama better morawa and kittama yeah
and if zwa tus and theala win this thing
and they burn their win at this event
when no one is going to betham is going
to be very tilting oh yeah yeah I mean
that was a good bet by you last week on
sah Heath he played he played awesome I
didn’t expect that because I was on the
Masters I loved him at Augusta and then
that was frustrating I just ended up
running it back with him yeah s played
the Six par fives over the weekend even
par lost by three right come on just
birdie four of the six and you’re at
least in a playoff yep it’s crazy and
most people are birding off all of them
except for my guys my stupid guys hogi
couldn’t make a birdie on them either so
you can go morawa kittama in place of
hogi and McNeely and then you can drop
down that high Smith and Chandler
Phillips team to the cooties and now all
of a sudden we do have the one the
$10,000 teams it would be morawa Nick
Taylor Garnett
10929 with Taylor Moore Alex mly and the
cooties yeah yeah I think that’s still
different enough like I mean dupes like
last week the dupe rate was like 18% of
the field was duplicated in like the big
contests when I looked here like the dup
rate like last year only 7% of teams
less than 7% of teams were duped so like
there’s still people that are clicking
randoms or or treating it differently
and that is with me like making the
players one team it’s not if you clicked
X and I clicked can’t lay we don’t we
don’t have the same team like I I made
sure to run through that so I don’t
think you have to get insane and that
team is is right on right on point so
basically as it pertains to strategy I
don’t want to sit here building the same
lineup all day long with you because I
know like the guys that I want to play
so when I start sprinkling in guys on
fantasy National so I’ll probably just
honestly if I’m going to play like 50
teams this week I’ll probably highlight
most of the top teams based on what you
said and just build different variations
of them and then try to pick the cooties
maybe one or two other 6K teams I like
or 6K SL blow 7K teams and then even
take those guys out of the pool at the
same time and then rerun lineups so
build like 25 one way and 25 another way
without maybe I’ll take Xander out of
those ones as well so build from like
Rory to Schmidt and make sure all my six
teams come from inside of there and I’ll
TR just based on what the way that you
said that it’s played out now every year
is going to be different it’s not like
three years is the end all be all of a
sample size but we’re now starting to
get some data points on it and I do
think that trying to beat these sort of
weeks is doing those sorts of things
right like last year it it would have
been like if you somehow landed on
Brandon Matthews and Shan O’Hare like
that could have been the way you won the
contest at one one% they weren’t needed
the year before was let’s see year
before was Dylan woo and Justin low at
$6,300 under 1%
like if I took two stabs at those teams
and I’m going to sprinkle if I’m you
know playing 150 and kind of the the
bigger ones like the ones that stood out
to me in the low end like Charlie
Hoffman doesn’t isn’t playing like a
$6,200 golfer it feels like right two
top fives for him he’s playing with Nick
Watney who hasn’t done anything in a
long time except these two rip up this
event every single year if you look at
the history like their history is better
than almost anybody I mean Hoffman what
19th MCA 11th 9th 31st 5th and they
played together every year in those and
Watney basically hasn’t done anything in
that same time period they stood out as
one and then really off the board I mean
it’s going to be less than 1% but Harry
higs is um showing a little bit of life
on the corn fairy tour he made the cut
last weekend in corales he was I think
like inside the top 20 going into the
final round um and Trace Crow is
somebody who’s gotten I don’t know like
maybe a little like Bridgeman type of
treatment where he was really good as an
amateur you know had it around a little
bit on the corn fairy tour PGA Tour
hasn’t been great to him last week was
the best event he had but there’s two
two things that stood out the best higs
performance now I’m not saying this is a
coraly by any means but he had a uh a he
die major result of T4 at kiawa so like
higs has some Pete di in him and then
the course I thought that isn’t played
on the PGA tour that has some coral and
two guys in this field did really good
at it the Q School event this past year
was played at the like die course in
Jacksonville which is another Pete die
one and hig’s partner Trace Crow was one
of the qualifiers there so Andy Cott was
the other one who won say I thought I
thought you were going to give me
Endicott Burns Burns is a guy who I’ve
been he hit me in each way in Puerto
Rico like a month ago I was like it’s
coming and I think he’s missed every cut
since he has that’s what scared me there
but Andy Cott won that event that that
one was lots of water in play a peat die
design where like you could you couldn’t
score a ton but like it reminded me of
PJ National
too okay uh I did want to talk to you
about the weather before we get out of
here and just how that’s been affecting
so much so far this Seasons we can take
a look at the weather I’m using the
naval air station joint reserve base new
Orleans uh to figure that this out for
this week so just to kind of go down a
little bit there I can make it fit my
screen a little bit better you know it’s
always fun producing this at home when
Paul’s got the day off but if we take a
look like there’s yeah looks like
there’s wind on Friday a little bit and
like from 10:00 a.m. to 400 p.m. but not
so much like that I would worry it
doesn’t look like there’s any rain in
the forecast but I just think as more of
an overview that it does feel and maybe
I’m misremembering this because it’s
recency bias that weather has played
more of an impact this year on a weekly
basis than we’ve ever seen before
absolutely and it’s something that I
don’t think I realized the impact that a
perfectionist who makes projections
takes that into play and you know Rufus
and Tom P body are the ones behind it at
ET and the Masters was awful for them
with the delays with the changing of
when it would play out and they were
running like 60% of the simulations are
happening during this type of delay and
20% are here and it mattered right like
I think it evened out a little bit more
after two days but there were certain
guys that got caught in spots that that
were terrible right the Valero was a
huge event the week before it was a
two-stroke Advantage um in that style I
think we also as an industry are such a
bubble that we believe everybody is
looking into these things and you know
we need to get on the opposite side of
the wave split because 90% of the field
is going to play these guys and and ends
up being like 7% of the field like wave
Stacks in the big contest the higher
dollar you play the more it factors in
and maybe there are times and places
when I think you brought this up in
weather situations right dink w a a
British Open being on the opposite side
like when there’s like that type in play
can happen but I think you as a
individual playing your lineup should
Factor it in and you’re going to be
giving yourself more of a edge on the
overall competition because yeah and
like it’s funny because I’ve won four
gpps one in Showdown so let’s say three
main slate contests so far this year and
two of them were from the opposite
weather stack because I’ve just been
stacking both sides every single week
not because I believe that there’s going
to be some sort of huge weather
Advantage because Tambo and I kind of
talk this through every single week it
just it differentiates my lineup so much
that most people don’t have like you
might land on lot of the same guys if
you’re all playing the same wave Stacks
but generally the guys that everyone
gets wrong are like the quote unquote
sleeper guys this week so like when the
coties don’t play well this week it’s
going to affect a lot of us but if you
were going to stack like the other way
it’s at that mid tier so we know that
SMY and Schmidt are going to be popular
this week we know that Moore and N Smith
are going to be popular this week but if
you were just to just blindly wave stack
this week well half your lineups
couldn’t have those guys in them to blow
you up and generally speaking to win
tournaments the guys that you actually
need to have are the pivot off the
$7,700 chalk guy it’s the $7,600 guy
that no one owns yeah and that’s a great
way to look at like just having that in
your repertoire every week I think yes
like forces you into building unique
construction when when no one else is
really doing it that way like on Extreme
examples it has played out like on a on
a routine week you can win from both
sides of that right like it doesn’t
matter but in the extreme examples like
I think and and kind of wrote about
earlier in the year of that Players
Championship that cam Smith one was was
a year right that was the opposite side
of the wave because of the thunderstorms
where it was like a three-stroke
advantage to the wrong wave that nobody
played it like you set yourself up for
that on those weeks too you do like I I
won Pebble I mean look it was only three
rounds but I mean part of that is
weather but I went with the other course
that day that everyone stack like oh
it’s going to be today’s the day you
want to play Pebble because it’s it’s
less windy than day one so I just went
the opposite way and that’s how I ended
up on Windom Clark and if you didn’t
have Windam Clark you couldn’t have
won 100% yeah I think it just forces you
onto plays that the the typical public
isn’t going to click agree yeah so may
maybe I’ll end up doing that this week
because I think it’s split 2020 on each
side of the draw or 4040 I would imagine
or 4040 right 4040 yes yes still still a
typical week in that fashion yep yeah
it’s top 33 in ties make the cut it’s
funny when you mentioned all those teams
at the very top my first inclination was
to go to look for a to make the cut
parlay of just like all of the top end
teams it the first place I looked at is
not offering it so I I have to go see if
other places are offering it to make the
cut parlay well the circle one paid out
or whichever one you hit when you were
in Vegas that that paid out handsomely
so that one was great the the Masters is
generally the only place where I play
those though trying to I’m trying to
look so I see some make make the cut
odds out there at
DraftKings um no it looks like MGM in
the states what’s unibet overseas unibet
is oh it’s that’s unibet overseas it’s
rivers in the
states okay so so I could play it at
unibet here is what you’re saying I
don’t know if you can parlay but they
those are the two books that have make
the cut looks like those top teams Kain
shle are minus 500 mroy low minus 400
kyama zaurus those two teams minus
333 those those four separate
but I mean that’s better than like what
what are those guys paying on a make the
cut on a typical week right like they
are minus 800 minus thousands you know
yeah I don’t know if they I don’t know
if they’d be that high but that that’s
about in line with what they would be
I’m just thinking that if you can start
if you know 17 of 18 of the top teams
end up making the cut like on average
over the past few years that try to pick
out seven of them and put them together
then you know you could even around
Robin it I mean that’s almost better
than playing a gpp this week yeah that’s
a that’s a good line of thinking because
yeah we haven’t seen I mean even the
year that there was a bunch of 10K teams
like that was a little bit more on but
yeah I
mean I I think I was just shocked as I
looked through the numbers that this is
probably way more of a typical week of
the way it plays out than a lot of
people think and we can capitalize on
that and that’s probably an opportunity
to do that
all right Skyler H you’ll be thank you
for still sticking around on the DP
World Tour show by the way now that you
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the pat Mayo open the best ball drafts
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