Why Matt Fitzpatrick Can WIN AGAIN at RBC Heritage | Golf Picks, Odds & Bets | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s RBC Heritage Championship on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Intro
01:33 – Best Bets
07:52 – Course Preview
13:00 – Outright Bets
29:25 – The Rest of the Best Bets

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorNickBretwisch #BlueWireVideo

hello you beautiful degenerates and
welcome to links and locks the action
Network’s golf betting podcast presented
by bet 365 this week we’re off to Hilton
Head Island South Carolina for the 2024
RBC Heritage
at Harbor toown Golf Links this week
it’s another signature event on the PGA
tour 69 players in the field among those
who qualified Victor havind is not in
the field this week as he’s still
working on his game Hideki matama also
not in the field this week but pretty
much everybody else who qualified is in
the field no cut this week which means
our placement markets aren’t as juicy as
we normally like them to be but we’ll
break down how we’re betting this week’s
PGA Tour event at Hilton Head in just a
few moments we’ll get through our Best
Bets of course preview our outright
cards we’ll talk about any other bets we
have on the card we’ll discuss our one
and done where Nick took a commanding
lead on oneand done for our Action
Network pool so uh after picking Scotty
sheffler last week we’ll also do a brief
touch on initial thoughts at the corales
punana championship which is the
opposite field event on the PJ tour this
week and then we’ll go through our rapid
fire but first let’s start with Best
Bets Nick last week you had Benny on top
20 that hit for you came down the
stretch at the Masters but it was a dub
nonetheless we all tailed you so thanks
for pulling that one out for us I give
you the honor on the te this week what
is your best bet for the 2024 RBC
Heritage flirting with the top 10 too
just kind of very roller coaster of
round on
Sunday I don’t know if I have a best bet
I’ll stick to the placement Market this
is one of the bigger edges I had in the
placement Market if like the only Edge
and it’s very high on recent data but
I’m going to go Ricky Fowler top 20 plus
350
all right Ricky Fowler top 10 plus 350
he hasn’t been in great form lately but
Nick has found some value there excited
to hear Why by the way alongside Nick
brwi and Spencer agar I’m Roberto aruo
Spencer who or what is your best bet for
this week’s RBC
Heritage this is one of those rare
situations and I don’t do it very
frequently on this show where I am
actually backing a golfer versus the
full fate answer probably has a little
bit to do with the no cut nature of this
tournament but Patrick can’t lay minus
115 over Matthew
Fitzpatrick all right so going with some
big guns fading the defending Champion
here I’ve got a match up bet as well and
I am going with Cameron young at minus
110 to defeat his former Collegiate
teammate at Wake Forest will zalatoris
but first before we get into that
handicap let’s talk about why why Ricky
Fowler has value this week
Nick yeah my numbers were right about
plus 310 for this so 40 points of value
it I I’m a Ricky guy so I kind of you
know push the data in his favor for a
little more recent waiting very heavily
on Augusta I think like I feel like he’s
hungry again this is me kind of like
reading
his his body language from Augusta I
feel like he struggled a little bit but
he was an absolute machine ball striking
all four days I think maybe Thursday was
kind of rough but to see how well he hit
the ball on Friday in those conditions
he scored around the green which is
something he’s always done pretty much
his whole career the putters gaining
Strokes like it has been all season long
not significant but I just feel like
he’s a a very well-rounded golfer who to
me grades very well on these Club down
courses and I I I don’t know I just I
feel it I’m going with a gut play this
week because I absolutely hate the
buting board so a little bit of value on
the number Ricky Fowler
350 all right Spencer talk to me about
why you’re backing Patrick kentley
versus Matt Fitzpatrick this week so I
mentioned how this wasn’t a full fade in
this situation but I do want to preface
that by saying that Fitzpatrick
definitely doesn’t have a perfect
profile inside of my model I think the
narrative around this is that you know
for lack of better words here he kind of
has this love affair of Harbortown we
we’ve heard about how it’s his favorite
course on tour he won here last year I
just think it’s being too heavily baked
into the price we saw him complain last
week about how his short irons weren’t
calibrated correctly I ended up falling
victim to that answer in multiple areas
of the market but my math had
Fitzpatrick ranked 54th for projected
proximity because of those problems with
the current state of his irons you’re
going to be able to look at that Victory
the fourth the 14th over the past four
years for why you get this answer that
you do here but I just think it’s a very
similar profile that we’re getting with
Patrick Klay but a much better
statistical Outlook so you’re going to
get two golfers that really like this
course and then just the stats favor
can’t lay for me here so um depending on
how I ran this the numbers could get up
to minus 150 which would be the strong
end of how aggressive this would be I
think more in that minus 130 range
though is where I had it as
proper and I think inod play for me I
like it inod play for Nick on tailing
Patrick kley over Matt Fitzpatrick I
like it as well and I’ve seen his number
on the Move in the space as well up to
minus 40 uh so be sure to shop around
and find the best value there as Klay
has shown that he still has that top
tier form uh when he’s on so far this
year of course almost won at the Genesis
Invitational was sick in that final
round before Hideki matama went out uh
and knocked down every flatstick on uh
the back nine there but jumping into my
best bet this week I’ve got Cameron
young over will zot Taurus I really like
Cameron young this week he’s been really
solid on his uh irons especially in the
mid to Long iron uh proximities I also
really like that he’s done well on Club
down courses so far this season and
throughout his career one person who
hasn’t done that well on Club down
courses is will zuris I did not include
his win in Memphis as one of those Club
down spots at the FedEx St Jude because
I think it’s just a longer course where
you hit too many drivers to consider it
a true Club down course but looking back
at his PJ tour history I didn’t see any
top 20s at Club down courses in his
entire career of course last year 2023
it was cut very short because of the
back injury uh it’s been a shorter 2024
so far because we’re not that far into
the season but he strategically doesn’t
play these Club down courses and as a
result and I think that a bit of
selection bias because he knows that the
driver has historically been a strength
of his so has long iron play and that is
minimized at Club down courses so I
think there’s a bit of a selection bias
and we noted that this week is a
signature event and it hasn’t always
been a signature event it was last year
and everybody played in that event
except for Rory mroy more on him a
little bit later but I want to fade some
of these guys who don’t like these Club
down courses and I thought that Cameron
young was someone I’m very bullish on
this week will Z Torres is someone whom
I have a ton of respect for had a bet on
him as a future to win The Masters so
I’m not a hater of will Z Tes I think
this is a better spot for Cameron young
I think he’s a better golfer right now
on this type of golf course than will
aurus and at minus 110 out there I like
the value for Wiley Z to go down to his
college teammate uh there in the South
gentlemen we touched on harbort toown
briefly but Spencer I’ll give you the
first crack edit what are you weighing
in your model for this week’s SC which
is very different from last week at
Augusta National but I think it’s still
one of the most fun courses to watch on
the PJ tour yes so harber Town’s a Pete
D track that accentuates any of those
strategic Concepts that you might expect
out of one of his courses Dy did receive
help on the project from Jack Nicholas
that gave the then Young American his
first taste of working on a property in
his career you get a course here that’s
tied off the tea with Treeline Fairways
that Forge this path of a less than
driver appeal because of the force lay
throughout that concept derives the
differen making answer since the field
experiences nearly an 11% uptick when
you dive into second shots between 125
to 200 yards versus two or average you
also get just under a 9% reduction in
anticipated approaches from over 200
yards it’s a really interesting
distribution because it renders a unique
split since it minimizes distance when
most holes possess that club down nature
that Roberto was talking about as the
optimal route and then it also enhances
midiron play for those who often find
themselves beaten by the elite players
in the world with distance when you
compare that facet of their games when
you add that to the 18 holes with water
uh the numerous sand tracks you you get
a track here that still manages to
present one of the more impactful
answers to Wayward drives because you
have to know where you can and cannot
miss maybe some of that blueprint stems
from being cognizant of the win you do
have that Coastal Design that has been
known to create Havoc I will say to that
the tree line impact is going to
mitigate some of those concerns but you
get these small greens here you’re going
to have to be able to scramble I ended
up weighing my model from a 100 to 200
yards I I think 125 to 200 is probably
more of the range where you want to be I
also included that 100 uh plus range
into there and cut it off at 200 yards
but this is a second shot course with
small greens at the end of the day and
um before we move on fully I I I do want
to ask Nick about Roberto’s play there
because I I actually have some thoughts
on Roberto’s head-to-head match up Do
you happen to have a stance one way or
another uh if you want to give me one
minute when we move to the next Market I
will answer that question but I long
story short I love both of them that’s
kind of what I was wondering with that
because so I asked that question just to
kind of elaborate a little bit further
on it that was the matchup that was the
second one for me that if I didn’t have
the Patrick hlay play it probably would
have been Cameron young over will zalot
torus my model really liked Cameron
young this week I’m a I’m lower on zalot
torus for all the reasons that Roberto
talked about but I was trying to see if
you could sway me one way or another
there but uh if you like both maybe I’ll
stay away with it yeah I love Cameron
young but I I love everything that
Roberto mentioned about wills out Horus
but I also think that the data we’re
polling was when he was a different
player so the mid irons are fantastic
the long irons are fantastic the shorter
irons have been very good again this
year his round the green plays the best
it’s ever been and I don’t I just don’t
think he’s the the bomber in terms of
like distance he’s been like average to
the field all season long since he came
back with the injury so I think that
this is a week where the market kind of
overlooked will zot Tores so I do have
him in my outright section coming up but
if I had to lean one way it would
certainly be Club down cam both of them
I think uh and I may have invented Club
down Cam Davis a couple years ago but uh
Cameron young absolutely checks every
single box I’m looking for and on the
DFS side of things both he and will
zorus will be in my main lineup so I I
don’t want to say anything bad about
will but I would lean the Cameron young
side absolutely there but I I just love
the can’t L play so much more so that’s
going to be my my in Potter that’s
fair so looking at Wills alores the only
Club down course he’s played at all this
season has been Wy for the Sony Open and
I’m willing to just completely write
that one off because it was his first
event of the year before that his most
recent start which was an unofficial
start um after his back surgery that
kept him out was at the hero uh World
Challenge which is not an official event
he shot over 80 he hasn’t been doing
that on tour recently he needed an event
to take the rust off in Hawaii he did
that so I’m not right too much reading
too much into that but the fact that he
hasn’t played any of these Club down
courses and I think he’s only played
here once in his career at uh the RBC
Heritage which is in
2021 and hasn’t played since So reading
between the lines I don’t know that he
either loves his course loves the spot
on
the schedule he also was hurt last year
so don’t read too too much into that uh
but yeah I like Cameron young that’s my
real one play for the whole pod uh I’ve
got a few others that I’ll workshop with
you guys so we’ll get into that in a
moment but gentlemen let’s talk about
our outright betting cards Spencer I’ll
give you the
floor I’m going to go a very similar
direction of what I did last week I I
started with Xander Schley at 12 to1
this is an argument that I’ve made for
the past few weeks when talking about
Xander I know the lack of recent win
Equity presents a weird dynamic because
we’re consistently landing at this same
Crossroads juncture books are
essentially masking the odds and Roberto
we were talking about this a little bit
before we went on air they’re they’re
masking the odds with with this entire
board for the most part so Scotty
sheffler gets priced into the mix here
and I think everybody else for the most
part here got priced as if Scotty
shuffler didn’t exist and this is how
you end up getting these very high hold
percentage boards and my model put that
number about as high as we’ve seen the
entire year and I have come on shows
quite frequently this season and given
that answer over and over again and so
that kind of stresses the point that
it’s even getting worse in a lot of
these spots but this Xander one is the
interesting option for me because you
consistently have been getting him at
these prices but when you look at it on
the flip side of the equation the sharp
money continues to drive shle down even
on most of these value reduced boards
and that’s an answer that my model keeps
spitting out over and over again like to
me this is the expensive version of
essential what I was doing with Steven
joerger for 8 to 10 events over last
year this is going to end up being a
negative expected value play if it takes
eight or 10 tournaments for Xander to
end up getting across the finish line
but it’s not as if I’m backing him every
single week if we’re getting technical
here yes I’ve talked about him a lot on
the show The Masters at 22 to1 was the
first time that I actually placed the
wager on Xander this season so this
would be bet number two for me on Xander
but I just think this is the 1B version
of what sheffler is is producing in my
model you get it with a lot less hype
because he hasn’t acrossed the Finish
Line since
2022 I just kind of thought this club
down nature for him and the ability to
ball strike at this course gave him that
high-end profile that I wanted to see
for this particular venue so I took him
at 12 to1 I also grabbed Russell Henley
at 55 to1 that was something that I
discussed on Monday during the first
look article that I do for Action
Network that has now fallen more into
that 40 to1 range unfortunately
Henley’s generated a very interesting
course history two top 20 finishes three
miscuts in five years I just think when
you look at the data all of that shows a
golfer that’s trending towards a
high-end finish my model gr ADM has a
positive trajectory mover for expected
taag green production at Harbortown
versus what his Baseline projection
would be and then the 12th Place grade
for comp putting returns is exactly that
answer that we’ve talked about quite
frequently on the show that was Sheffer
at the API that was joerger in Houston
it’s these golfers that I like from a
ball striking perspective that are are
projecting better in my model with their
putter so Henley fit that answer better
than anybody else and then I closed my
card out with Keegan Bradley at 100 to
one it’s probably an argument to be made
and unfortunately this was a Monday
situation that ran away from me but I
did think SEIU Kim was interesting when
he was at that 45 to1 or 50 to one range
I ultimately didn’t go in that direction
because if we’re talking about the
positive movement that Henley had with
the Putter sewu and fena were
essentially the two opposite ends of
that where they became two of the worst
Putters and were already two of the
worst Putters in the field but actually
got worse from their Baseline projection
so I ended up going with this Keegan
Bradley route there were 12 golfers in
my model when I ran the six categories
that I did that graded inside the top
half of the field Keegan Bradley was one
of those 12 every one of those other
names are the high-end options that you
would expect so you’re going to need
more than just being top half of field
to actually win this tournament but I
thought at 100 to one there was that
upside I’m looking for for a golfer that
has been known to put the pieces
together in the past in some of these
situations so it was a number grab for
me markets have clearly gone the
opposite direction where he’s a massive
Underdog in pretty much any matchup you
can find but I I tend to think that
books and betters are wrong in that
situation and this is a nice spot to
attack that upside in Keegan in some of
those higher want to call High leverage
type of spots but like I I think he’s
good in gpp contest I think he’s good as
like a top 10 sort of a bet he’s good in
an outright sort of situation it’s more
of those volatile markets where he plays
well for me yeah and Keegan Bradley
coming off of his best approach week
since his win last year at the traveler
championship this past week at the
Masters and we mentioned some other club
down golf courses on the PGA tour he
nearly won as he lost in a playoff to
Grayson Murray at the Sony Open in
Hawaii in one of those Club Down Golf
courses we’ve seen so far this season on
the PGA tour Nick you hinted at a few
golfers on your outright card what is
your full outright betting card this
week at the RBC Heritage all right will
zot tus 34 to1 I think I kind of
explained that one already let me tell
you what my price was on him my numbers
really do like him that was one of the
bigger edges I had 31 to1 is what I have
been priced at and boys I know Spencer
doesn’t want to hear it so you can
probably just mute Spencer
but I just I think it’s just a crazy
price I know his game is in a crazy
awful spot but he was one of he was a
plus putter on Thursday at Augusta oh
not web no no no not web no way I would
never do that but a very good ball
Striker on Friday historically a very
good ball Striker a very good short game
player I’m kind of throwing out Friday
out the window with that weather would
you like to take a guess on who this is
I mean whenever you start talking about
ball striking I always just assume it’s
Tony I was very close to getting the
Tony feno honestly I probably still will
just because it’s me but I will never
recommend Tony feno on this show until
further notice it is not Tony feno it’s
close oh it’s it’s Justin Thomas it is
Justin Thomas I had him priced and I
tried to weigh him down even more I have
him priced at 48 to1 it’s of Coursey has
had a lot of succcess at he was very
good at Pebble which I think is when I
played him in one and done I want to say
I it’s 65 to1 is just it’s too much if
if he finds something in his game and
again like some of these guys this is
kind of like a vacation trip I I like no
one talked about him in Augusta I’m sure
he’s pretty upset with how it all went
down on Friday what do he end up like
seven over through the last four maybe
more three doubles and I think he did
three doubles in a in a regular bogy he
was even par and the cut was at plus
five at that point he’s the one one of
the reasons the cut went to plus six and
all the chalk and DFS went through but
like four holes left and you’re even par
well inside the cut like the probability
for him to make the cut had to be like
in the 95th percentile but yeah I saw
that at one point he was
99.9% to make the cut unbelievable man
like so like the game’s there I know
that August is more of a hard track and
something that experience matters and
and he’s always been okay there so I
don’t know I I think that going to a my
issue with him has been driver how he’s
erratic he’s been off the tea I think
that that this course obviously
mitigates that a little bit 65 to1 just
too long for me uh at the top of the
board I was close to Xander uh I would
not have got the price that you got
Spencer so I kind of backed off there I
like K morala 22 to1 a guy that we
really haven’t talked about a whole lot
on this show all year I certainly did
not see what he did last week coming
especially with the recent form that he
was in but if he found it I think it’s a
great spot for him I did want to get
exposure to someone with you know very
high win equity and he kind of checked
that box I have him at 21 to1 so to get
anything at the top of the board with
that type of value for me is is going to
be a full go and then Shane Lowry more
of a course history play a guy that
whose iron play has been absolutely
fantastic uh 45 to one on Shane Lowry so
I do have room for a long shot I’m kind
of a Spencer I think that number on
Keegan Bradley will probably continue to
rise maybe maybe I wait there because I
could certainly get behind Kean Bradley
he was in my uh
my fantasy lineup for the time being but
yeah um I think I’ll probably play
Justin Thomas in fantasy 2 so I’m gonna
go with the well-rounded build of JT cam
young and will Z Tes Nick so I’ll humble
brag this for a second we made a
friendly wager last week on better golf
pod of [ __ ] we did Matthew Fitzpatrick
over Justin Thomas and
unfortunately one of my full tournament
matchups was Victor hland over Justin
Thomas so I correctly faded Justin
Thomas and still managed to lose that
matchup but I I would like to double
down on this show this week I will take
I will take somebody further down the
board okay um I mean I I’ll go pretty
low on this with it like I I would
rather have Lucas Glover than Justin
[Music]
Thomas I would rather have Chris Kirk
than Justin Thomas yeah well so would I
but not for the price and the outright
Market what’s Chris Kirk’s number he’s
right around the same thing right I
don’t think Chris Kirk can win I think
Chris Kirk is safer so I have a ton of
miscut equity in Justin Thomas and I
understand that that’s why I’m betting
him on the outright side of things it
makes sris Kirk is 60 to one on our
sponsor bet 365 yeah he’s shorter than
JT get out of here he’s not shorter than
JT uh because JT’s not even on the board
at our sponsor bet 365 right now at
least in the enhanced Mar with he withw
is a problem that I’ve run into because
I have
seen 65 to one tickets on JT this week I
haven’t found a market available for me
to bet him outright at a number longer
than 40 to1 if I could find a 60 to1 on
JT on this golf course I will absolutely
play it let me know I can get 65 in
Illinois all right we we’ll be in touch
all right perfect yeah all right I will
let’s let’s make this bet let’s give
some uh
yeah I’ll take him over Lucas Clover if
anything like Lucas Clover has some sort
of miscut equity with that putter sure
give me yeah I’ll take Chris Kirk like I
always like Kirky and I think this is a
great course for him and obviously he’s
shown that too in the past but yeah all
right Justin Thomas
[Music]
over Lucas Glover I’d say what the uh
the bet is next week whoever wins the
other player gets to pick two people
they’re considering in one and done I
get to choose a person oo and then vice
versa if I’ll choose two you get to pick
which one I have to play I mean the one
thing I’ll say about this is last week
we at least took two players that were
next to each other on the odds board I
mean this is going about double the
price here but like what what do I
honestly have to lose at this point I’m
down by $10 million in the oneand done
contest and for whatever it’s worth
Lucas Glover’s outright price is very
similar to 75 to1 our sponsor vet
365 oh I see okay yeah there you go
refresh nice all right that’s fair you
you agree to those terms
Spencer I mean I feel like if I don’t on
air then all of a sudden like I was the
one trying to offer the bet there but um
like I mean how much of a sabotage is
this going to turn into for the
oneandone contest well you get to pick
the two people I get to choose one of
the two that you’re recommending so you
nominate two guys that you’re interested
in I get to choose which one you play
okay that’s fair so it’s not like I’m
giving you you know I don’t know I don’t
want to pick on anybody but like Sheamus
power next I’m not going to make you
play him and one it done well I’ll I’ll
make this just gross I’ll I’ll pick like
I mean I don’t know who’s in the event
but I’ll pick like Brian Haron and web
Simpson and make you make a choice there
after I lose that that’ll be gross all
right I’ll defer if I win the bet if
it’s those two all right and then uh
yeah I think that’s it but I will I’m
I’m really going to consider ke and
Bradley I think that’s a really good
price PR I like what we saw at
austa I’m going to just I don’t know do
you think the numb is going to get
shorter I feel like just the name
Brandon keeg and Bradley probably 100 to
one is not going to stick around very
long like my guess and and I could be
wrong about this um and by the way there
are places while I did get it at 100 to
one myself there are places out there
that have a better price than even 100
to one um I kind of just think because
he’s such a massive Underdog in every
single matchup that that number does
have the potential to drift a little bit
I just think the market it’s like kind
of your thoughts in some ways Nick where
you think the market is too low on
zalatoris I kind of think this is a
different range that we’re in but I I
think the Market’s too low on what it’s
viewing as Keegan Bradley is this week
okay yeah for whatever it’s worth I got
Keegan Bradley at 82 as like my number
so I didn’t think I would have an edge
on that so I didn’t really even look
down at where he’d be but yeah all right
rock on that’s all I got on outright
card all right I’ll keep it short and
simple I’ve got Cameron young at 33 to1
on my outright card I mention why I’m
bullish on him I’m only betting to win
six units this week because I just don’t
think there’s a huge Edge but I want to
strike wild the iron toot with Cameron
young I feel like if his form stays
around he’s gonna win
this soon and I think this is a great
course for him with cl down kind like
that c of this I don’t
want I don’t want to get too exposed on
Cameron young um I could end up with
that go in my face just like I did last
week with only I’m G to make
on he’s got to win one soon there
there’s two golfers in this field that
do not have a win on the PGA tour that
this is the prime spot for them to
finally pick up that Victory Cameron
young would be one Tommy Fleetwood would
be the other I I love Tommy Fleetwood
this week I couldn’t get there at the
price he was but those are the two
golfers that if if one of those two win
I I would not be shocked whatsoever like
I know we’ve given that answer a million
times and they never do win a golf
tournament but here I am betting Xander
who also hasn’t won so it’s like you
kind of have to pick your poison in some
of these spots outside of Scotty you can
kind of make an argument that all of
these guys for the most part are not
getting across the finish line so shout
out to his caddy too the the local do
does anybody know what he actually did
what Tommy paid
him if you get the standard 10 15% would
have made over 100 Grand right that’s
awesome around 8 Grand great week for
him absolutely but basically every
golfer on the board between 10 and 45
to1 I thought there was a legit reason
why they could win and a club down golf
course I think it’s very um Equitable
where you take the Top Gear out of I I
think nowadays where everybody can smash
the ball 300
yards it’s a lot harder to get uh big
distribution of scores between a lot of
the best players in the world unless
there are firm and fast conditions which
was awesome to see last week but if
you’re not putting long IRS in play
you’re not disqualifying guys because of
the driver that means there just going
to be a bunch of guys who can win this
week even if the field isn’t that big I
wish it was a full field event we’ve
seen at the club down courses so far
this season Sony Open Grayson Murray
wins out of nowhere we saw Peter malat
went out of completely nowhere at the V
bar as well I just didn’t want to bet
too many guys at Short numbers so I’m
going to leave my card open I’ve got the
33 to1 on Cameron young I’m looking for
JT around 60 to1 if I can find it but
right now that’s all I got on my card I
liked a lot of these guys I just
couldn’t find a way to bet on any of
them quite yet especially with Scotty
Sheffer still officially in the mix so
I’m laying
low and hopefully we can find some value
in tournament uh or at least on some in
tournament matchups as well we’ll move
over to our next segment with other bets
you’ve got on the card and also swing it
around I’ll keep going here I have bet
Milano Grio at plus 125 for a top 30
just betting this for a half unit I love
his recent form on this golf course or
his course history here and he’s a guy
who does not have that Elite Talent off
of the tea but he can thrive on these
Club down golf courses his short game is
historically a weakness of his but here
at Hilton Head it’s not that hard to get
up and down relatively and he has been
relatively solid around the green when
he’s lost around the green it hasn’t
been by a large margin and he’s really
thrived on approach here I think that
he’s got the goods
to have a solid High floor this week his
approach play has had one real down we
at Pebble Beach this year but other than
that it’s been really strong had a
really poor putting week last week off
the tea was a disaster for him but you
could call you could see that coming
from a mile away for him at the Masters
so I think this is a good bu low spot on
ailana a Grio very different Golf Course
from last week and because of that poor
performance both off the tea and with
the putter I think you can bounce back
this week and at least get in the top 30
otherwise I have a handful of bets that
I haven’t made that I’m strongly
considering I was considering oberg
over Rory mroy at Plus at uh minus 110
but I didn’t want to get into the big
boy uh heavyweight boxing match there
between the two of them but I did Lean
obber there I also Spencer I know that
you like Klay I was wondering if you
would recommend sorry you let Klay over
Fitzpatrick that that number is moving
uh from minus 115 would you also
consider H at plus 105 versus Matt
Fitzpatrick this
week there
are here’s here’s my problem I have and
I I don’t know if I would because there
were essentially three golfers in that
General range that my model was much
lower on than consensus like even lower
than I was on Matthew Fitzpatrick hom
was one of them spe was another one and
then I was lower on will zot torus like
Nick has talked me off that a little bit
I still think Cameron young is the right
side of that matchup but I’m kind of
trying to find ways to take on those
three golfers so um I mean that’s what’s
always difficult about this show like I
I usually release the head-to-head
either on Monday night or on Tuesday and
uh movement happens at some points in
these situations and I do see a price
out there and I don’t know if it’s still
sitting there that was in the low minus
1220s uh that you could still get at a
book uh for that Klay matchup like
that’s still fine there like I’m fine
playing it up into that upper minus 120
range I just think at a certain point
you lose the value of what you’re
actually trying to accomplish
gotcha I know that it was more of a back
of Klay than a full fade of Fitzpatrick
so was just curious on your thoughts on
hom there and that was basically it I
really didn’t like the top 20 Market
especially without Tai’s paid in full in
a 60 man 69 man field so uh light card
for me this week Nick I’ll swing it back
to you what else do you have on the card
uh anything else no that was it the
Ricky placement uh moving on the can’t
lay over Fitz and then the outride card
so I got a lot for live betting but
again I I’ve had a tough time outside of
obviously running with Spencer on
Windham Clark at Pebble Beach at these
no cut events so I’m not going to push
the luck especially with uh some more
Majors coming up I think I’ll probably
just save some b roll maybe and go a
little bit harder on those yeah a lot of
the most recent Signature Events have
been some of those player run
invitationals which have cuts the Arnold
Palmer Invitational has a cut uh tiger
Genesis Invitational as a cut and then
of course the Players Championship is
the only full field signature event and
of course that had a cut uh but now
outside of the majors the Signature
Events are not going to have cuts and
then once we get to the FedEx Cup uh
playoffs only the first event has a cut
so uh going to be a few more of these
frustrating placement Market weeks for
us unfortunately Spencer what else you
have on the card so far this week I
don’t have anything else for to talk
about either like I I would like to get
your guys’s opinion the one spot that I
had value in the placement Market was
Russell Henley for a top 20 at plus
125 um I don’t know if I’m going to go
in that direction still but that that’s
like the only placement wager when you
you guys kind of mentioned it best
whether it’s the placement Market or
even in these head-to-head
matchups the lack of having a cut really
hurts all of these sectors that we’re
talking about we lose the miscut equity
in these matchups and that’s one of the
reasons why I’m trying to back somebody
that I actually like this week than the
full fade route and then in the
placement markets you run into this
really tough spot I I I think Lucas
Glover makes some sense like if you can
find him in the right Market but I also
think he has a lower ceiling than a lot
of these guys and there are all the big
names here outside of Matsuyama and
havin so I don’t know if I’m trying to
necessarily work Glover up the board
into a top 20 bet where it’s kind of a a
fringe spot to begin with there so I’ll
just take my action against Nick and uh
and call it a
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and restrictions apply all right guys
let’s talk a little one and done before
we get briefly to
punana Nick you were one of four four
people who picked in our pool of 15 here
at action Scotty Sheffer last week so
you got $3.6 million so you lost a
million dollars by not betting him at
the Players unfortunately uh where you
got 4.5 but nonetheless you are in first
place I believe you have the biggest
lead of any that anybody’s had at any
point during the oneandone season at 1.3
million over your boy Spencer is
scrolling we got a down to find him I
don’t think there are any tournaments
over $4 million for the winner so
Spencer’s going to have to win multiple
tournaments to catch up to Nick you know
what the problem you know what the
problem is that we’ve run into it and I
mentioned it a couple shows ago what do
we have 12 people 15 people in our
contest 15 yeah 15 so out of the 15
people I’m pretty sure Scotty was
correctly hit like 10 or 11 times and
and I talked about it I burnt him the
very first tournament of the season and
I would have played him at the API
that’s the one I would have used him for
if I had him so um I would have been you
know in a much better position than I
was right now but I I don’t know I I’m
at the point right now where I mean if
Nick just wants to just like I I’ll give
Nick three plays and he can randomly
pick one and I I’ll move forward in that
direction because I don’t think I can
win I will show my
cards oh I’m taking Shane
Lowry do you guys not like Shane Lowry I
don’t I don’t get why we haven’t even
mentioned his name really what what do
we not like about Shane here he’s one of
those guys in that range where I could
convince myself to bet on him but I can
only bet on a certain number of guys
this week out outright at least I love
his approach play form I love his
history here I love his short game uh
the putter isn’t amazing but I think
that he’s got everything else to contend
here this week and the putter could get
hot so I think this as good as a course
fit as you’re going to find on the PJ
tour
Forum sweet okay I would
agree I just didn’t I I wish the price
was 55 instead of 45 or 50 to Wi and I
would have really really thought about
it but I I like him um I think he’s very
safe which in a signature event with no
cut is going to be valuable this week
everybody’s going to make money I went
with Cameron young if you haven’t
figured out already I like him this week
and I’m pretty sure that Nick already
used him at cognizant or earlier so
which was good use of him so I’m going
to use him this week somehow I get like
a backd door top 10 every week which is
fine six figure pay payday every week
but I don’t get a 4 million from Scotty
because I burned him at Genesis so I’m
with you Spencer and the we really got
screwed by not using Scotty in a win uh
I think it might just be us to I’m not
sure who else has used him and not
one it’s a very exclusive club that
we’re in but I’m using Camy young this
week I I noted last week that I was
between Rory and Xander and I texted
Spencer and you Nick that I was using
Xander so I’m officially off the [ __ ]
list from Spencer and I think that was
the right decision last week um so I’ve
locked in cam young I’m using him this
week locked the key threw it away
Spencer who you got this week first of
all Roberto I appreciate the
transparency there and that’s how badly
I’m running in this contest cuz I I I
texted them I was trying to figure out
if if I could get any inside information
of what Roberto was going to do we had
talked on the show where I was down
between Rory and Xander I think Roberto
was in a very similar spot there I asked
him what he was going to play he told me
Xander I went Rory once again wrong
decision was made I I still am fine with
the outcome of the way that it worked
out because I need to be different in
every single one of these spots so I’d
rather just have even if it’s a name
down the way down the board I’d rather
have a chance to have a unique pick
there but I guess for me it’s probably
one
of three people like it’s either Patrick
Klay Xander Russell
Henley
yeah I don’t think people that oh yeah
honestly they probably will because like
you go into the app he’s what is he the
fourth rated player in the world so he’s
like right there and I’m sure most
people have already burned one two and
three he’s probably a popular pick so
yeah I mean eure of aspiration right now
in your voice so that’s probably not the
way to go if you’re trying to make a big
climb up the leader board but I don’t
know can Russ win I mean the putters as
good as it’s really ever been right it
is absolutely I’m afraid I I am afraid
which is a wild statement that Russell
is going to be picked by like two or
three people and I won’t even be making
up the ground that I think I am with
that
selection again I still kind of Stand by
it iron play has not been Russell Henley
this year it’s so great cuz obviously it
was you know Elite I don’t I just I’m
I’m worried about that a little
bit but he’s scrambling and but it’s
like okay now he’s making putts so do
they does that equate to higher win
Equity I’d say probably man I think when
you remove the 200 yards and Beyond
shots from him that has to naturally
give him a little bit more win equity
when you don’t have as many coming from
that range and then yeah you would think
so that’s a good point and then you have
that increase with the putter that comes
into play so I I I think he’s like the
name way down the list that makes some
sense I just am afraid that people are
actually going to play an option like
either him or SEIU Kim or any of those
names like in a 15ers contest there’s
only so many and I already know what two
of the picks are so really if I exclude
myself there’s only 12 selections of
what it can be but um it’s kind of just
trying to figure out what I think is the
most off the radar pick of the three and
I I honestly don’t know what it would be
between those three
options all right fellas we talked one
and done let’s briefly jump into the
corales punana championship this is the
opposite field event on the PGA tour
this week Alex noren is your outright
betting favorite on the second longest
golf course they played on the PGA tour
this season he’s 13 to1 Nikolai hoard
who finished second here last year is 15
to1 Billy horel is your third favorite
at 22 to1 disgusting uh Aaron Ry 24 to1
Doug Gibb 27 to1 Nate Lashley is the
final golfer shorter than 30 to1 at also
27 to1 our boy Kevin Yu is 32 to1 by the
way uh have you guys made any bets on
this board and are there any other guys
whom you’re keeping an eye on I’m
interested to see what Nico does again
see how he you know reacts to playing
insanely well at Auguste he was he was
special like I was a birdie machine
I will ride with you on What chan Kim 45
to1 just because 365 jeez all right I
will I’ll get a runner to get me that
ticket it’s almost in my phone to of uh
Chan cim appreciation days coming up
soon for the the PJ championship history
uh that was a PJ Championship right that
Phil one where he top 20 Spencer was
that the big ticket it was like plus 850
top 40 yeah it was it was
either it was a PGA I think yeah
t23
2021 gain Str in all facets and Phil
Mickelson won that event at Kwa yeah
you’re going to give me 50 to1 at p on a
long course that I think you still need
to be pretty accurate off the te there
don’t
you I think so it’s just tough without
any Strokes gain data so yeah I want to
say it’s still a relatively tight course
to where that that plays to his game so
Chan’s going to be my guy there I like
Chan Kim at 50 to1 this is a big golf
course you’re going to need to go low
need to be in the 21 range so I don’t
want somebody who’s got a putter that’s
complete
liability I like Chan Kim at 50 to1 so I
bet him there I also bet Parker Cy at
110 to one there a handful of other guys
whom I need to do a little bit more
digging on I was actually thinking of uh
cooking up my own Mall this weekend for
that because there’s just almost no data
available uh from corales so trying to
look at some other big courses looking
at the Puerto Rico open uh some other
golfers whom I’m intrigued by Taylor
pendrith is 65 to1 I think it’s a by low
spot on him potentially uh Mac Meer at
80 to1 is also intriguing coming off a
top 10 in his most recent start in his
hometown at San Antonio Chris GD up at
Puerto Rico another big Golf Course
Coastal one he was in the 30 to1 price
range former H Haskins winner he’s 85
to1 this week so there’s also a chance
to buy the dip there I need to do some
more digging on a short game to see if I
trust him to get to the 20 to1 um or 20
under range but I’m looking a lot of
these ball speed guys guys who can bomb
it and putt it and then also have some
upside and approach so that’s going to
be kind of my um how I look at it and
then I’m going to try to find some
proximities to look into a little bit
more uh but those are my initial
thoughts in punana this week all right
Gentlemen let’s jump into rapid fire and
let’s get out of here so we have not
really discussed Scotty Sheffer this
much this week any bet you make in the
outr market is indirectly a bet against
Scotty sheffler we conquered him a few
weeks ago with step
joerger how are you guys looking at
Scotty Sheffer this week is it a good
fit for him relatively and what would be
your price that you would have to get on
him to bet him this week I’ll start with
the
Spencer probably six and a half to one I
mean we’re never going to ever get
Scotty could be down by a million shots
after the first 10 holes and I mean he’s
just not going to drift in the market
but um I do think you kind of mentioned
it best Roberto some some courses like
this do present the potential where
everybody gets if you’re going to all
get stuck in the same distances that
you’re hitting from and then there’s
some nature of where it’s a second shot
course where putting does come into play
I I don’t know it makes it more
difficult in my eyes for Scotty to
actually win this in Augusta where
that’s a course that can really separate
some of his skills so I don’t have any
interest at 4 to1 he’s the favorite for
a reason but it does feel like a natural
let down spot for him and I don’t even
know what a let down is is that coming
in fourth
place absurd uh bet 365 has placement
position with one minus 120 juice on
either side at six and a half so uh
absurd once again but if you if you bet
the under on six and a half every week
you’d be making money on sh but you
might as well bet him to win Nick any
thoughts on Scotty this
week um I wouldn’t take him unless he
was 10 to
one that’s my like like you said early
no cut this course kind of it’s very
hard to separate I know still he’s the
best iron player in the world but the
firm and fast conditions and all like
what he did on Sunday on the back n
especially was just special so shout out
to him that’s great uh dude LV too I I
just want to mention real quick big and
scin were fantastic I so close I wish he
was going to win that would have been a
monster for me but uh yeah no I I have
no interest in betting Scotti here it is
what it is if he wins I’m okay with it I
like the way that I built my card I
think everybody that I bet I got you
know a decent percentile of an edge
there and it’s inflated because Scot’s
there and he flew back to Dallas too
does that matter like he’s going to play
he’s contract contractually obligated to
play the wife thing I don’t think we
even need to talk about with the baby
but I don’t know
like how can you go from Masters number
two to just go to a tournament has he
played RBC before tied for 11th last
year in his only start okay he did play
last year that’s right yeah it’s like I
don’t know man I feel like every he’s so
good because he does every aspect of the
game so well I just don’t think that
this course really calls for all of that
obviously it doesn’t hurt you to be
extremely well-rounded to a te but I
don’t know I just I’m good on the the
numbers in my model I mean this is like
the understatement of the century he’s
very well suited to find success like
he’s almost number one in every
statistical category that I ran this
week so I I think you said it best Nick
like you’re when you’re attacking this
board you are you know what you’re
signing up for at the end of the day
you’re you are opposing Scotty you’re
hoping that he doesn’t end your betting
card I just don’t think 4 to1 is the
right price and we’ve gotten this
situation where books are able to put it
at 4 to1 because the general public is
still going to bet him
there it’s
insane it’s insane the PJ tour also
similar to your note there Spencer
tweeted out only the categories or the
statistics where he’s leading on tour
this over bar this season and they
basically wrote a book so moving on WE
we’ve noted Xander shafley who’s 13 to1
I bet 365 Rory mroy is 15 to1 Lou big
oberg is 15 to1 Patrick kley is 15 to1
Rory m is not going to win this week I’m
telling you right now I wanted to find a
way to fade him I don’t I don’t know
that I’m going to get to the window on
the oberg ticket against him although I
do like oberg more than him this week I
don’t think
that he I don’t see worry M winning on a
club down golf course at least not this
week um if you guys had to punch a
ticket on one of those three guys Klay
oberg or M Roy which one would you guys
take
oberg I have a sickness I mean I’d
probably take Patrick Klay but I I I
think it’s Klay and oberg very close and
I agree with you Roberto Rory would be
my least preferred of the three
options I want to find a way to fade him
but I haven’t quite done it yet so uh
I’ll hang around on that one col morawa
is 20 to1 Tommy Fleetwood is 22 to1
defending Champion Matt Bitz Patrick is
27 to1 among those three golfers Nick if
you had to punch ticket outright on one
who would you do I already did count so
I’ll go with
Fleetwood all right
Spencer I wrote an article in
2021 that said Tommy fleetwood’s first
win would come at RBC Heritage and I
predicted him to win that tournament and
he missed the cut so you know take that
for whatever it’s worth there but since
that finish back-to-back top 15s I think
this is a really nice course setup for
him talked about it previously where him
and Cameron young like this is the type
of venue where I see them potentially
winning at I will go with Tommy
Fleetwood another guy who has made us
some money on the show this week wendham
Clark is 33 to1 Jordan spe 32 to1 sahit
theala 35 to1 we talked about Russell
Henley so we’ll skip him and see Kim and
Shane Lowry so speed 32 wiam Clark 33
sahit 35 if you guys had a punch ticket
on one of those three golfers Nick which
one would you
take that is a tough
question I’ll go with theala I hate hate
the
answer
Spencer I’ll go with Windam Clark um I
think it was a little bit of a like if
we want to talk about Friday rounds that
were a fluke and kind of go in that
direction with Justin Thomas I that
Windam Clark round he shouldn’t have
missed the cut um he was playing great
golf until he wasn’t and I would rather
bet on that upside that we’ve seen from
him historically where he’s a major
Champion he won at Pebble this year
we’ve seen him take down this sort of
field before it doesn’t mean theala
can’t do that and I like theala this
week but winning is still hard um I
think if you were to ask me which one
has the chance to have a safer finish
probably theala I guess if we’re
shooting for for Pure upside to win it I
guess I’ll say
Clark I think it would be those two
between those two for me even though spe
is the one who won it here two years ago
going down to the 50 to1 range and I’ll
get you guys out of here on this one if
you had to get a free outright ticket
who would you punch it on Tom Kim 50 to1
Tony feno is 55 to one so we’re gonna
exclude him from Nick’s uh exclude him
from me too I I don’t I don’t need to
answer Tony fow fow for the record is
one of the other golfers whom I actually
thought there was value on but I just to
win his Putter’s got to cooperate and I
just can’t do it to myself again until I
see some more signs of life but Tom
Kim’s 50 to1 Sam Burns is 55 to1 Cory
Connor is 55 to1 Brian Harmon 55 to1 and
then at 60 to1 we got Chris Kirk OE
batia and the man he beat in a playoff
at the Valero Texas open Denny McCarthy
so among Kim fenale Burns Connors Harmon
Kirk batia and McCarthy on this big
final rapid fire which one would you
most rather have a ticket on Nick Brian
Harmon and I hate to say it up going to
mute I we’ll we’ll just leave it at that
I’ll double down on that answer all
right well thanks again for everybody
for tuning in to our show this week
previewing the RBC Heritage uh be sure
to check out all of our content on the
Action Network app online podcast
wherever you get it uh we’re very
grateful for you’re consuming it we got
picks uh on outrights long shots first
round leaders price picks You Name It We
got Best Bets as well uh we’ve got it
online for you at action so be sure to
check it out also got a preview of this
week’s LPGA major championship the
Chevron Championship I’ll be out there
on Thursday at the woodlands so very
excited for that and we’ve also got the
corales punana championship this week so
tons of golf out there thanks for tuning
in this week gentlemen where can we find
your work this week starting with you
nick uh Action Network Best Bets I
believe going out later tonight ored
first oh nice okay I will uh get my piic
in then because I have not put
everything in there and then uh at
better golf pod on
Twitter Spencer where can we find your
work [ __ ] sorry go
ahead Spencer where can we find your
work this week you can find me on
Twitter at TL Sports you can get my
model over at Roto baller or over on
Twitter there and then uh I will have
all my in tournament stuff like every
week here at Action Network um you know
for as bad as the Masters went for me
and I think it was one of those
situations where it was just a run bout
situation there were so many bets that I
lost by a stroke see Kim three putted
against Denny McCarthy one of those days
like there was so much volatility that
came into play the one part of the
market that was still profitable which
has been the answer now for six plus
years has been these in tournament
matchups so you can get those over at
Action
Network going to be really excited to
see those and we’re going to have a lot
of options with there being no cut so
far uh this
week you can find me on Twitter Roberto
a213 you can find Spencer Toff Sports
and you can find Nick sticks piix that
sticks with an X want to give one final
big thank you to everybody who makes
this podcast possible starting with you
the listeners also big thanks to our
producers who always do the heavy
lifting for us Noah needer Hofer David
Payne and Matt Mitchell big thanks to
everybody else here at Action Network
and their support we’ll say a big thank
you to you once again for tuning in
here’s the hoping you guys hit the green
this week at Hilton Head