Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Spencer Aguiar joins Roberto Arguello to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Valero Texas Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
02:23 – Texas Open Best Bets
11:50 – Course Preview
16:00 – Outright Picks
27:34 – bet365 Promo
28:20 – One And Done Picks
37:55 – Placement Bets
55:15 – Rapid Fire Picks
1:04:16 – Picks Recap
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#AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorSpencerAguiar #BlueWireVideo
Hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host and I’m excited to be joined by Spencer agar this week as we previewed the Valero Texas open at TPC San Antonio Oaks Course Spencer it
Was a big week for you last week you had a top 20 play on Max graser at I believe 5 to one which hit he finished high for seventh but that was CH change compared to the 50 to1 hit on step jger you’ve been touting him more than anybody I
Know in the space so congratulations to you for being on it when it finally paid off uh anything you’d like to note about joerger or grayer I think with joerger it’s something we’ve talked about quite frequently on this show we’ve gotten this added distance from him over the
Past year which turned him into a completely different golfer and there’s a a very large answer here that I talked about this at the API with Scotty Sheffer and I think the same thing came into play here with theer Sheffer is the P the the high-end example of this
Because he’s the number one player in the world and he always produces results but I’m always looking for these ball Strikers that have a positive trajectory in my model for expected putting on the course that they’re playing that’s one of the reasons why I have such a course
Specific Outlook with it gagger saw that increase inside of my sheet last week when I dove into his two-year Baseline and then I compared it to what his expected output was at Memorial Park I think sometimes you just have to find some of those outlier totals there and
So that was great with the AER the the graser play was nice and then uh it would have been a really big week if Nate Lashley could have come in the top 20 I had him at five and a half to one he came in 21st after pretty much
Parring down the stretch there uh but you know we’ll talk about Nate Lashley again this week I think it’s an unique opportunity to potentially go back to him on a name that books didn’t seem to adjust for but it’s going to be a fun tournament the week before the
Masters I’m excited to break it down with you we’re going to break down first off our Best Bets then we’ll go through our course preview of TPC San Antonio then we’ll go through the outright cards that we have and then other bets on the card placements matchups etc etc we’ll
Talk one and done and then we’ll get through everybody at least 50 to1 or shorter on the board uh in our rapid fire segment but first Spencer what is your best bet for the Valero Texas open this week going back to a matchup this week so that’s a posit POS answer to
Give after having a few weeks of not having a matchup I think that this is miscut versus miscut what you’re looking at here with the potential that Rogers produces a big result so I’m going to go with Patrick Rogers minus 110 over Lee Hodes talk a little bit about why my model disliked
Hodes so much after the recent run that we’ve gotten of him over the past three weeks but I think it’s a nice spot to buy against where the market has pushed Hodges here all right we’ll hear that cap on Patrick Rogers over Lee Hodges in just a
Moment I am going with Keith Mitchell at plus 180 for a top 30 on our sponsor bet 365 but before we get into cashmere Keith Spencer why are you backing Patrick Rogers over Lee Hodges yes I talked about it at the beginning here like Rogers versus Hodges has all the
Makings of every volatile concept that we’ve discussed over the last few years on this show of trying to find a pro file the fade and then doing it with any golfer that grades over a 3% value and projected implied win probability in my sheet so none of that suggests that I
Found Rogers to be safe do like his ceiling because of the distance and around the green expectation there were portions of my model when I ran this purely for upside that graded him as a top 30 upside potential in this field but at the end of the day this had much
More to do with that bottom tier profile from Hodges that exhibited massive red flag after massive red flag he ranked 120th for me and weighted scoring at this course 134th when faced with a longer facility uh that could be the ultimate downside Factor here 133rd for expected Strokes gain total and then
101st for scrambling that’s another area that created this downside answer that presents this height and miscut potential inside of my model you get this overall projection where when you just look at it the way that it is this price is closer to minus 117 that doesn’t necessarily make it a bet based
Off of the surface answer of that but when you dive into some of these more datadriven approaches and you look at this more from a numerical perspective and we throw away some of what Hodes has done and I know that’s a riskier proposition to go but I think when the
Statistical profile is telling me something that’s different from the recent results that we’ve gotten I could stretch this out into the minus 150 range all of a sudden that presents a really big Edge to be found here I’m fine taking it at anything minus 120 or
Above just to be safe because I think you always have to be cautious when you start trying to deviate away from what the model’s saying on its most Baseline expectation of it and really that just comes down to the the fact that Rogers has some miscut potential that I keep
Going back to there’s that that comes into play but I I’m okay here backing a golfer against a name here with Hodges that I I just think that the downside is not necessarily being baked into the picture here I think he got priced into a range that he didn’t necessarily
Belong and yeah we can point to the three tournaments that he’s produced at as why the form has turned around and maybe that is where I end up being wrong with this take here but the long-term data is what I trust more and I don’t necessarily love the way that he fits
Here at TPC San Antonio Yeah you mentioned the scrambling numbers every single tournament that hajes has played on the PJ tour this season he’s lost Strokes gained around the green and putting you mentioned those three finishes for hajes that have possibly boosted him up a tier or two all top 35
Finishes but they’ve all all been very heavily putter Reliant and that is something that is not sustainable in the long term can can I add one thing to that before we move on to your pick Roberto because I I like that you brought up that factor and that’s
Something that I missed on the initial breakdown there so I I talked about it with joerger and Sheffer how we’re looking for positive Putters and I would not call Lee Hodges a ball Striker at his core here but if we look at a player that’s gaining everything with his
Putter at this point or most everything that he’s doing with his putter he dropped on similar coraly courses that gave you similar green complexes that we’re going to get this week to 147th in this field in expected putting I don’t think that that’s necessarily the answer
We’re going to get because when you add in some of his Baseline expectations just in general he jumps into a fringe top 100 guy but we’re all of a sudden now talking about a guy who’s 109th in weighted putting for me at a course where I don’t like his ball striking
With a factor of game that’s really been carrying him at a course that’s maybe a little bit too long for him at the end of the day so when when I kept adding these factors together it gave me a golfer that my model wanted to find a
Way to take on he was one of the biggest fade candidates I could find and it just so happened that Rogers while there’s a lot of volatility around him I do think he’s a contrarian play in like DFS contest to begin with because people don’t necessarily know where he’s at and
Then all of a sudden here that’s kind of going to equate to the same answer in a head-to-head matchup where I think there’s this General belief that he’s maybe too boom or bust for the liking and and I understand that answer but when you throw him directly against a
Name like Lee Hodes the game changes of where I’m just looking for that 3% plus Edge and when I get that number I’m gonna take it no matter what the golfer is that I’m backing there I know you didn’t mention the course history for Rogers doesn’t have
Great course history overall at TBC San Antonio three miscuts and a t-58 but last year when he played here solo fifth place finish so maybe he brings some momentum in because of that uh some good feelings into a place where he had one of his better results in the last year
Or so uh speaking of better results someone who’s been trending recently is Keith Mitchell we saw him at the vbar championship contend he was in the final pairing had a poror last day finished TI for 17th uh the putter has been relatively cold the last few weeks but
His approach play has improved and that’s something that is key for me he mentioned it recently in the media where he’s talked about yeah I know that I drive the ball really well and I’ve always kind of focused on that and it’s great to focus on your strengths why not
It’s fun um but he needed to improve with his irons and he specifically mentioned his distance control and if you look at the numbers that has been that has produce results he’s gain Strokes on approach every single tournament since the Sony Open in Hawaii uh that is is nine tournaments in a row
Missed the cut last week at Houston but in addition to gaining Strokes on approach in nine consecutive tournaments he’s gain Strokes off the te in 10 consecutive tournaments why is that he’s above average in distance every single week and more often than not he’s pretty accurate uh We’ve mentioned him being
One of the best total drivers of the golf ball year in and year out on the PTA tour and that plays this week at TPC s at TPC San Antonio where the fairways are a little bit uh more narrow than what we recently especially when you consider last week in Houston where the
Rough was pretty much non-existent with the overseed and I think this week is an advantage for a player like Mitchell who can be both accurate and long we know that length is always an advantage off the tea but his accuracy this week will be key we’ve seen for example Kevin naw
On the ninth hole drastic example uh where he made a 16 here in 2011 where you’ve got trees that aren’t necessarily consistently in play off the te but when they are you’ve got to avoid them and you have rocks as well that could come into play and produce big numbers so I
Like guys who are accurate this week but also are long the around the green play does give some cause for concern and the putter can be hit or miss but I thought that his upside was really high so I’m going to be targeting targeting him in
The outright market and I liked him for a top 30 at plus 180 because I thought he was relatively safe the question is when he does Miss greens what’s going to happen there but for a top 30 at plus 180 I like Keith Mitchell this week because of that total driving and the
Improved approach play that I think will put him putting for Birdie on these surfaces more often than not this week I think that’s a nice way to break down that play and even if you look at my model over the last 24 rounds Keith Mitchell in this field ranks number one
In Strokes gained approach so if the irons are going to be turning around at the level that they have been I I agree with you like the downside comes into play potentially with the around the green metrics or with the putter but I think for if he’s hitting Greens in
Regulation which pretty much every field he’s going to be in he’s going to be about about top 25 player in expected Green in regulation percentage he’s hitting those greens in regulation the iron numbers have gotten better we know that the driver is Elite if he can lose
Some of that around the green troubles because he’s on the green I I do think that you know if you’re salvaging par on some of these holes there’s a lot to be said when we talk about these longer par fours and I think his total driving will
Help him in theory on the par fivs that are more challenging than meet the eye a lot of these times just because of the length that we have on these holes yeah assuming that their knockdown wi some of them are going to be real three shoters and you’re going to be
Going driver 3-wood really into them uh so you got to pay it off on those few par five scoring opportunities but that’s a national transition into our course preview here for TPC San Antonio at The Oaks Course Spencer what are you weighing most in your model this week
Yeah so the venue was designed in 200 10 by Greg Norman it’s going to be a lengthy par 72 property that is going to marginally mimic next week’s major but it does so in a unique fashion that generates its own flare for The Dramatics we see a lot of those
Ramifications come into play immediately around the green produces over 3% more impact on scoring than a typical stop on tour that particular Factor when you mix it with the 6% decrease in G percentage in expectation does help to make this layout one of the more demanding major
Preps on the schedule I think that’s mostly the reason why we had seen over the years now we have a better tournament this season but I think when you put it right before Augusta players didn’t necessarily want to get tested I think it’s curious to see why a name
Like Rory is there I don’t know if he wants to get a little bit extra practice it hasn’t exactly worked in the past when he’s gone to Augusta to try to win that tournament so sometimes you have to deviate from the norm there but we have a really good tournament this week that
Is going to have six of the course’s most challenging hle stretch between 410 to 481 yards in theory when you get that sort of an expectation that creates a more condensed second shot yardage however it’s essential to note that no proximity range is exceptionally more impactful than the next since each 25
Yard bucket when we break this down from uh zero yards and Beyond so Z to 25 and then all the way from 100 and Beyond which 25 yard bucket there each time you do that like it’s it’s a general expectation that’s going to be a lot flatter than you get on on a
Normal tournament we see that with every single bucket outside of 100 yards have over a 10% expected output rate I think you can tune into any show this week Roberto you’re going to hear those basic concepts that I talked about you need to hit Greens in regulation you need to be
Good around the green when you don’t that’s the essential mold of kind of how you can either Salvage a score or create some of these birdie opportunities but I got a little bit different with my model it’s something that I’ve written about quite a bit this weekend I’ve been
Talking about the general answer of a aggression is something that was really key in my model when trying to indicate and predict outputs at this course in the past so I ran three separate categories in my sheet this week that looked at aggression rate aggression birdie or better percentage and par five
Aggression these are just generic stats that you can find on the PGA tour I did go in and I did I do it a little bit differently with the way that I ran the math behind it but when Cory Connor won this twice and Jordan spe won this tournament they all
Possess very similar answers based off of that build like Court Connor won it twice by being top 10 in the field for overall aggression par five aggression and aggression rate speed carried a similar answer during his win number one for birdie or better aggression I essentially just with how much weight I
Put there was a 20% weight that went into that total there anybody that was outside of the top 75 for me almost lost all their projected win Equity to make them a value on the board there were a couple names that that that ended up becoming top 25 plays for me even with
That answer being said but I think when we’re talking specifically about winning this tournament I think that aggression answer is something that you’re going to have to find this week and there were some names for me that really catapulted up my sheet when we start talking about outrights that um maybe not necessarily
The names you would think of for aggression but I thought it was a unique answer uh that kind of deviates my model away from the expected Norm that most people are going to get couple other things I to note uh the fairways average width is 25 to 30 yards
So that’s on the tighter side of the spectrum on the PJ tour once again these are Bermuda grass greens that are dormant so they’ve got the poet trivialis oversea we’ve seen that pretty much every week here in Texas so or we saw it last week in Houston and we saw
It pretty much every week in Florida as well so similar putting surface as we’ve seen recently uh but other than that I thought you nailed it so with that Spencer let’s jump into our outright cards I’ll let you have the floor as you look to make it two weeks in a row
Following step jger so during the course breakdown I discussed two crucial criteria points when looking for an outright ticket one could a player aggressively attack these par five locations create an advantage over the field because of their distance and the risk tolerance combination that they would add together and then two how did
A golfer perform when given these lengthier Par Four locations that you talked about previously like Kevin NOS scored a 16 in 2011 there are totals that can make this go south very quickly my model seemed to think that the golfer who best encapsulated that Outlook was Matthew Fitzpatrick I grabbed him at 28
To one on Monday Fitzpatrick ranked second in my model when combining harder par four and five holes into one grade that ranked behind only Rory maroy it also placed him as one of only five golfers to rank within the top 20 of this field for individual scoring when I
Ran this in from par 3es fours and fives so that’s going to take all the par fours here all the par 3es all the par fives look at it as it’s as if it’s its own tournament um those names Rory maay ludvig oberg Colin morawa and then one
Of my favorite long shot Wagers in Nate Lashley I grabbed him at 200 to one if you do want to throw a dart down the board I mentioned him last week 21st Place finish just missed the top 20 at plus 550 for us I think the ceiling is
Going to be much higher than his floor we’ll talk about that a little bit later when we talk about placement sort of bets because I thought there was a book out there that gave us a very unique return um in pricing compared to a lot of these other shops kind of based off
Of that answer but I I’m going to trust those Top 10 rankings for weighted Strokes gain total and past production at longer courses for him I thought 200 to one was a really intriguing price took Alex norin Roberto at 33 to1 I’m getting this one out of my system before
The Masters noren and Rory last year at the Masters were just an unmitigated disaster I I tuned in on my phone on Thursday to see where both of them were at and norin was in last and Rory had imploded and um you know I think this is
A spot for norin here where the results have really started to form with the the statistical data that he’s putting together ranked fifth in my model for scrambling eighth for aggression carried the second safest grade in the event because of his recent form and oneoff course history result um we’re going to
Need more than that tosite if we want to win the title at 33 to1 because we were talking about this off air and I do think there’s something to be said about guys like noren and then my next play of Tommy Fleetwood potentially being pushed down this board a little bit further
Than I wish they would have been I was hoping we could get 35 37 40 to1 a lot of these names that ended up being a pipe dream when it was all said and done but I had them proper at 30 to1 I ended up taking my very small little bit of
Value there just from what we’ve seen with noren recently and then same number on Tommy Fleetwood at 3 3 to one I I know those two don’t necessarily scream upside at the price but I do think the projected windier conditions help some of their scrambling Acumen same answer
Comes in to play for Fitzpatrick they why I even liked him a little bit more fleetwood’s recent form has taken a turn for the worst but a third place return for projected Strokes gain total compared to the field could help to push him up the board and on top of that
Roberto he had surprisingly good returns for aggression like I know we don’t necessarily think that for guys like Fleetwood and Xander and I know Xander’s not in this tournament this week but names like that but those two guys compared to most of the names in the field they were very aggressive golfers
When it came to trying to attack they just had a lower birdie or better percentage than a lot of these other names that end up producing when they did so there’s something to be said that maybe a course like the Valero where or a tournament like the Valero where he’s
Able to use some of his aggressiveness and maybe he can put the pieces together because we do know he’s one of the better scramblers in the world this kind of feels like one of those tournaments where if he puts the pieces together correctly this could be the sight of his
First Victory so I thought it was a decent number here at 33 to1 for a golfer where the market definitely has moved the other way just because of the recent form that we’ve gotten you mentioned Alex noren and I think this is a very interesting betting
Board this week because if you look at the golfers who are 30 to one in Short in the outright Market most of them aren’t playing Great Golf and a few of them who are look at Hideki matama for example he wasn’t anywhere near this number to start the season and so the
Most quote unquote talented guys in this field aren’t playing their best golf and I think that creates a really interesting betting board this week you mentioned you wanted norin at a lower number uh than the one you got him at he’s been awesome this year in his last
Three tournaments his gain Strokes off the tea on approach around the green and putting so you know that he’s playing his best golf and you’re going to get a competitive showing from Alex noren this week so I think that makes a lot of sense um I when looking into my outright
Betting card I liked Fitzpatrick just like you I know that a few weeks ago it came out that he had an extra weight in his driver that he didn’t know about and if there’s anybody on the PJ tour who I thought wouldn’t have this happen to it
Would be Matt Fitzpatrick who is one of the most calculated and meticulous golfers who down notes on every single shot that he’s hit for the last 15 16 years um that’s shocking he since then has started playing some better golf as well off the te specifically and so I’m
Very intrigued by him this week I thought in a field where he is one of the more talented players uh look at the last time he played um at the Players he gained over a stroke off the T per round and was really strong on approach he also can butt really well
And we know the short game is normally really strong as well uh he uses that unorthodox cross-handed look so I really like Fitzpatrick you being all over him as well with the aggression as well maybe even more confident in him so I added him after I saw you had him in the
Early outright card you got him at 27 in that in that article I got him at 30 afterwards so that was too much value for me to ignore I also went with Max hom who so far this season hasn’t hit as many Fairways as he needs to that gives me some cause for
Concern he isn’t necessarily playing his best golf he did play really well at the API I’m optimistic in his overall Talent he is one of the better scramblers does have the overall game in every category that checks my boxes from a long-term perspective this season the metrics
Aren’t as strong as I would like them to be but at 27 to1 in this field I thought there was some value in somebody who could compete with Alig oberg or auror mroy if those two are firing on all cylinders and then after that I didn’t love the midrange range between 40 and
70 to1 so I dropped down to Keith Mitchell at 85 to1 for the same reasons that I outlined earlier I think he’s got a lot of upside even if the short game does leave something or a lot to be desired in the same vein I went with
Adam senson at 165 to one I got to follow him in our feature group coverage of the Houston open last week and this guy just hits some lasers it’s really fun to watch I’m going to be out there Friday and Saturday this week making the short drive down from Austin so he’s
Somebody whom I’d like to look at if it gets really windy he’s somebody who I think could really Thrive this week because of that lower ball flight he had a bunch of Birdie opportunities last week that he just didn’t cash in with the putter so the short game is the
Question mark for him and on the greens it could go poorly for him so that’s why I’m just targeting him targeting him in the outright Market I’m also going to Target him for a top 20 bet as well so I like the upside with senson this is more
Of a number grab where I think that the approach numbers the off the te numbers aren’t indicative of his actual talent and I think I think this is a really good fit especially if the wind blows and then I also went with Eric Van royan at 100 to1 I think this is an
Opportunity to buy the dip on Van royan he missed the cut at the Players a couple weeks ago but before that event he gain Strokes on approach in seven straight tournaments off the te he’s been very strong as well this season and he’s got the ability to get white hot
With the putter like we saw in the final round of the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches uh that tournament he gained nearly eight Strokes total for two per round with the putter I think he’s got some upside in this field and then he does have a top 15 finish in one
Of two starts here over the last couple years he wasn’t playing Great Golf and now I think he’s a much better in much better form than he was then so I thought that at 100 to one in this field it was worth a flyer on van
Royan and then yeah that wraps up my card any thoughts on those guys Spencer well I think what’s interesting is and and we also talked about this a little bit before we went on a air full disclosure there but Stephen jger last week was a golfer that I talked about
Where if they Place him at 30 to1 I all of a sudden don’t end up on the outright ticket on him he was the one name that drifted down this board and into the 50 to1 range where it actually became a tangible opportunity to attack value
With it I think when we look at van royan and Mitchell there there there’s going to be this negative trajectory in my model for upside but I do do think that gets combed on the opposite end of the equation here for two golfers that seemed to be in quality form and thrived
In my model when it just came down to Pure aggression output of what I was trying to run both of them landed inside of the top 10 and even if you look at where that number opened and those prices that you got were definitely kind of some of that drift that I’m talking
About I don’t necessarily have the same upside totals that I was getting with jerger but then again joer was 50 to1 these are you know 80 90 100 to1 sort of golfers so I thought the two of them were from an overall rank standpoint top
15 projected plays for me and I I do think those are intriguing prices that you got there on on golfers where you know very few people have drifted up this board there’s a lot of hold percentage that has taken place this week I was telling you that this is the
Highest my model has spat out in that area where you know when I ran it over the the span of like one book in particular there’s like 160% hold percentage for the week over that number even which is just way too much and you can obviously shop around and find
Better prices on there and bet 365 does a great job of usually giving you the top end number in the market when you are trying to look around inside of their enhanced Market but it it’s names like that that they actually have the prerequisites that you’re looking for
For upside even if my model may be saying the other answer so you have to think that those prices if nothing else even whether they produce or they don’t produce you’re getting golfers that are in good form that have the ability to spike at any given time yeah I failed to
Note that those numbers all the outright numbers were via bet 365 our sponsor this week and one cool thing about bet 365 is they do offer you the each way betting so if you’re in a tournament like last week or potentially next week where that guy Scotty Sheffer is in the
Field and you don’t want to worry about him ruining your betting card you can choose each way betting and you can get a portion of your outright that paid out even if they don’t win and they finish in in the top certain number of places
Normally from 5 to 8 um and as a reminder this podcast is presented by North Carolina’s newest Sportsbook bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to get you
A chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at fet 365 must be 21 or
Older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call- 1800 Gambler or- 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right Spencer we’ve gone through our Best Bets course preview and our
Outright card let’s actually shift to one and done here before we get into the rest of our card cards you had Spencer you had Steven jger you mentioned him on the show last week I noted that I was leaning toward Luke list but jger was somebody whom I was considering I saw
Luke list was in our feature group coverage on PJ Tour live we’re not allowed to bet when I do PJ Tour live which is why I didn’t bet joerger even though I said last week I really liked him at 51 um so I really I thought about
That I listened back to the show why am I not going with the Jagger he’s half the price of list I think he’s a better golfer I think the driving distance that he’s put on is going to fit him this week at Houston better than list would
Be boosted elsewhere the rest of the season so I decided I’ll go with Steph joerger you had step jger we were the only two people in our pool of 15 players here at action in our one and done to have him so we got a nice boost up the
Board but he didn’t get any action on any um gain any ground on me unfortunately I think you’re in seventh I am in second who are you considering this week for one done at the Valero Texas open well Roberto I’m not going to let you get off of this topic without at
Least having this conversation here you know whatever list that Nick has and I like I hear you on everything that you said all I hear are excuses there of of how my pick got copied with it whatever this Nick list is which I’ll just call
It the [ __ ] list that Nick is on where I don’t necessarily trust Nick on the show and I’ve made that abundantly clear unfortunately Roberto you have now made that list next to Nick so I I don’t know what to do at this point like I’m trying to make picks that try
To deviate away and and let me move up this board and it didn’t come to fruition last week like yeah I made up some ground on some other people but you are substantially ahead of me and it’s going to have to take some sort of a
Difference and I don’t know what to say here because you like Matthew Fitzpatrick I like Matthew Fitzpatrick I feel like I’m about to get undercut once again I so currently I have Tommy Fleetwood in there as my oneand done pick I’m not married to that I’m very open here to a variety of
Players I feel like I might want to save Fitzpatrick for later in the in the season because I do think that he is one of the best 30 or so golfers in the world and perhaps I’ll use him at Hilton Head where he won last year
He’s noted that it’s one of his favorite courses in the world and it’s not a long golf course it’s a positional Golf Course even though he has put on a lot of distance that’s a course where he’s going to be on my short list and with it
Being a signature event coming up in just two weeks uh by the way everybody’s talking about the Masters Hilton head’s gonna be awesome in two weeks as well I might want to save him for the increased payout I currently have Fleetwood in because I think fleetwood’s
A good fit for this course especially if he gets Wendy I think he’s pretty safe I don’t necessarily think I’d use him at a signature event at any point this season maybe I’d use him at the Scottish open but I don’t know uh I’m pretty open this week I could go down to
Benan Alex norin you noted we you noted him on your outright card I noted that he’s been strong all across the board in Strokes gain metrics recently I think he’s somebody who’s solid who can if he can get me a sixf figure result this week I take that in this lesser uh purse
So I’m kind of talking myself into norn here but I’m very open I’m not married to anybody I can’t get put on the [ __ ] list this week because I’m not I’m not dedicated to to one person but I feel about it is I look at who I’m trying to
Pick and if the guys ahead of me don’t have them available that’s a boost but I uh I’m not counting anybody out as far as who’s um going to be picked by somebody based on what they say on the show yeah I mean I’m a poor little soul
At like I mean I keep saying last place in this contest I guess we’re a little bit better than last place now but I’m just in my own territory I would like to just be left alone and you know just can make whatever pick that I do put
Together here I do think you bring up some Savvy points around Fitzpatrick where there’s an argument to be made that he might be better suited for one of these larger events and we can name the handful that are left left there’s major championships if you want to go
That route with him like he’s a name that’s going to make you different in a lot of those perspectives if you go in that territory and I do think in two-p pick contests and maybe there’s some Merit even in one pck contest to have this route I think Alex noren makes or
Even been on but Alex noren specifically makes so much sense for all the reasons that you just mentioned 12 consecutive made Cuts he has strung together a handful of uh top 20 finishes in a row so the form is looking great entering this week and you’re never going to
Really want to use Alex norin during one of those more significant events so I I do think the the norin Ben on sort of routes are a way to potentially try to get different but like for me when I look at it that way I do think noren’s
To be very popular I I don’t think it matters quite as much in a 15p person contest of what we’re talking about I think that would be more of an answer in a you know 100 person plus contest to where you’re gonna you need to make up
Ground and that’s kind of my mentality like I’m playing this game of how quickly can I make up ground in this contest and and I do think because people will want to say Fitzpatrick he’s kind of likely to wear I get him at a spot that my model’s higher on him than
Usual and hopefully that translates into some money here but um I don’t know if there’s anybody else that necessarily like pops for me that I’m super intrigued to use Cory Connor’s going to be so popular he’s going to be the most popular of any of the names I understand
Why he’s been number one in my model the last three years I had built it before this tournament this year he still ended up cracking the top six for me um although he did have negative uh trajectory in my model for upside that’s typically something I don’t want to see
That just means he’s a safer Target than an upside play and maybe we could kind of hold a very he’s won two tournaments they’ve both come here in general he’s not winning golf tournaments unless it’s at the Valero but I think he’s too popular a little too safe probably for
My liking there I mean you could go I’m not saying you specifically I’m just saying a person out there could go Max H if you don’t trust him in these major Championship events I think in some of these larger events there’s still the ability to play him but one of the most
Significant climbers in my model for upside if you’re trying to go a little bit lower but I mean really outside of that it’s a lot of like Maverick McNeely could make some sense um I mean Jordan spe in Texas if you’re shooting for Pure upside always comes into play I think
It’s kind of one of those situations how much do you trust spe at the Masters next week is there any ability that you want to use him there is there another tournament you have your eyes on I mean it’s like the Heritage RBC Heritage an
Event that maybe you want to play him at like there’s venues for Speed here I do think that he’s one of the big upside climbers for me though but I mean outside of that it kind of feels like a very basic board and I do think everybody’s going to have the same six
Or seven players just mixed and match differently I agree I if I wanted to really get crazy I think that Keith Mitchell could be in in the mix I think that Tom Kim could be somebody slept on I think EVR is also uh a nice contrarian play this
Week um Victor Perez also been playing some really solid Golf and Andrew Novak is somebody that I’ll touch on in a few moments who’s also been very consistent and if you want to get a sneaky top 20 play I think he could do it as well yeah
I mean outside of Perez every single golfer that you talked about I believe was top 25 of my model and a name like Tom Kim I think all TPC courses have some direct correlation with one another TPC Summerland probably in particular is one of those venues that I would say
Most closely resembles what we get this week I mean that’s a former champion of that event and um I mean if you want to go and this is like way too deep and this is more of a two-p pick contest sort of a situation I haven’t decided
Exactly yet how I want to get my exposure to him but Martin lard I know everything that he’s doing is with the short game right now and that worries me ever so slightly but he was one of the big guys in my model that popped much higher than expectation would suggest he
Was inside the top 25 for me from an overall rank the same numbers when you look at this course history you look at what he’s produced at this tournament over the last 10 years or so there’s a lot of highend finishes in that mix and a lot of safety that’s been put together
Really the only and even the recent forms look good the only concern with the recent form is it is being aided by a short game that is propelling him up all these boards but uh number four in my model and projected aggression so maybe he’s one of those golfers where
You know he’s an upside climber for me in expected putting to begin with he just so happens to be overachieving his expectation but I don’t think it’s that out of the norm of what he’s putting together with it just a little bit more on the high end of the equation there
And then those aggression numbers could really turn him into a golfer that maybe could flirt with the first page of the leaderboard so um I guess that’s a good transition into this question because I was gonna ask you this anyways Roberto Martin lard top 40 plus 210 does that interest you
Whatsoever it does so Martin leair has this really interesting profile where if you look at his results in 2024 and how he’s done it as far as off the tea and approach compared to his past results at the Valero Texas open so I’m looking at this on data golf I filtered with Valero
Texas open as the past results on approach so far this season on the PJ tour he’s been a loser more often than not he’s only got um six starts of track data he’s lost Strokes on approach four times and when he has gained on approach it’s been very minimal and then off the
Te he’s lost on approach or off the te he’s lost uh five out of six times whereas if you look at the Valero Tex is open he’s gained on approach and off the te almost every single time and why is that it’s because his driving accuracy
Fits this course to a t uh he doesn’t miss it in the wrong spots and it allows him a profile on approach that fits his game you’ve noted that there are a lot more shots relative to expectation on the PJ tour from inside 125 yards and then a pretty even distribution outside
Of uh 125 yards as well where he said 10% in each bucket outside and then a lot from over 250 and so he’s one of those guys who I guess that fits his mold where he’s not having to hit a ton of long iron shots and his accuracy pays
Off there’s not a lot of water there’s only water on three holes here so if he I think what this shows about his off the t uh result in Florida is that he’s relatively accurate but when he has missed it’s probably been in the sometimes and that has nullified his
Overall accuracy percentage because he miss in the wrong spots there’s some variance there but he is really strong around the green and putting and around the green you mentioned is very important here with it being tough to hit the greens especially if the winds
Pick up so I think that at plus 210 plus 220 for top 40 the course fit is maybe as ideal as anybody else relative to a regular course on the PGA tour Forum obviously Martin L doesn’t have that Top Gear to get into like a lot of other
Players do but I think he is a relatively safe golfer because of that strong short game the driving accuracy and the lessening of extremely long approach shots uh that are going to penalize him for being one of the shorter golfers off the tea in this field and he does have two top 10
Finishes in his last four starts made five straight cuts uh including last week at the Texas Children’s houon open which if you would think that him being a short plotter off the te is going to hurt him at any course it’s going to hurt last week but surprisingly his short game carried him
Last week and I thought that uh the overseed around the greens was a major success that made the conditions very playable but also very fair and helped make and I love it when CH grass is a tough um barrier to overcome around the greens and so I thought that came to
Fruition last week and it showed that he’s playing really well so I like it for uh a Sprinkle at plus 210 for a top 40 yeah I think the safety markets is kind of where he’s going to be best suited positive climber in my model around the green and putting you
Mentioned that that’s kind of the staple of his game to begin with so if he even gets better on these similar green complexes all the better there and then inside of the top 25 of my model over the last 24 rounds in good drive percentage so I think when you just take
That overall good drive percentage his accuracy does have the ability to play potentially pretty well at some of these courses and um it’s just going to come down to the iron play here and what we get out of that portion of his game but
I like the off the te numbers I like his current success that he’s on I like his past success at this course I think from a statistical profile Outlook while he does move in the wrong direction purely for upside we’re also not or I’m not in
This wager betting him to win the event at the number that we’re talking about here I think for safety markets I think he’s a good matchup Target for that reason of a player that if you could find him against the right opponent I haven’t actually even seen him listed
Against anybody but you know against one of these right names that is lowered down this board I think lard makes a lot of sense and I always love those safety numbers for a top 40 bet when I can get a golfer that’s over plus 200 that my model thinks purely from a safety
Perspective is a top 20 golfer top 25 golfer in the field so uh just something to consider layard’s always a name that can go in either direction and it’s a challenging proposition when you’re being carried by the portion of your game that’s the most volatile Outlook
But I think there’s something to be said just about that being his strength to begin with yeah maybe if you want a low price guy on draft on uh DFS as well matchup Target as you said and then maybe top 40 those are some markets we could uh find
Him in potentially with some value Spencer getting into the rest of your card what else do you have besides your matchup bet and your outrights so I only have two other placement bets to talk about on this show it’s going to be on the same golfer uh on every single show
Article anything that I’ve done this week I have made the argument that Nate Lashley is the type of golfer that you want to bet up the board into these top TW 10 and 20 markets and stay away from some of these top 40 bets like we just
Talked about with layer because there is this Boomer bus potential that comes into play on his profile and when you look at what lashley’s pric is throughout the space for a top 40 this is almost across the board he’s about plus 160 plus 170 to
Land a top 40 if you shop around out there you can find a number that is plus 220 on the top 40 so you’re going to get about 50 points of value when you compare that to his top 20 number at the book he only jumps up to plus 400 so
When you directly compare that to all those players that are around plus 220 on this site they all jump up to plus 500 plus 550 I do think that this book is correct in their Outlook to where you have this High floor or this high ceiling low floor sort of play with
Lashley here but I also think that when you move a number 50 points you’ve all of a sudden already like took away from that and now you’re overly building it into the equation so I thought Lashley at plus 220 for a top 40 was not the
Route I wanted it was expecting to go but I thought there was value in that number and then I also took him as a top 20 at a different book at plus 525 it just comes down to like I mentioned at the beginning there were five golfers that graded inside of the
Top 20 for me in par three Par Four and par five scoring they were all the favorites of the tournament or the names near the very top of the event you had like four of the top six favorites and then you have this little Nate Lashley
Out of nowhere who entered the mix so I I think he’s a a high upside play to where if he puts the pieces together the ceiling’s really large there and look at what he’s done the past two weeks I I would say last week’s event his 21st Place finish probably should have been
Better and he produced at the Players also so he’s bringing good form into this event and I’m going to continue betting him as we keep getting these numbers that are not really shifting compared to where I think they should be he’s one of those names Roberto that a
Lot of names like I think a Max graser’s a really good example of this graser put together a little bit more of that highend finish that we’re talking about but books cut him in half from where he was Lashley comes in 21st place and his number didn’t shift whatsoever so I
Think it’s just a slow moving Market on a golfer that could really go either way here yeah this looks like a great fit for him with his driving accuracy and strengths every everywhere else um outside of driving distance just as far as the main four strokes game metrics go
So uh I’m optimistic on him I’ll see if I can find that available to me at plus 220 for the top 40 if I can I’ll add that as a conditional in po play um looking at my rest of the card I mentioned that I had the senson play I
Have him for a top 20 at plus 475 I think this is a good fit for him this week especially if the wind blows because of his lower ball flight and I just think eventually he’s going to be able to make some putts on the green so
I like senson this week I mentioned Keith Mitchell AS Plus 180 for a top 30 I also sprinkled him at plus 300 for a top 20 because I thought that he has a little bit more upside because of his ability to find Fairways and belong off
The te and then the iron play if we think about guys who are strong off the te and strong on approach play who aren’t great with short game or putting that’s Cory Connors he’s he’s done very well here maybe Keith Mitchell can conjure up some of that Cory
Connor’s magic this week in San Antonio I also bet Andrew Novak on a tiny escalator same way with Mitchell at plus 225 for a top 30 and plus 375 for a top 20 Novak just been playing some great golf so far this season really high up there in terms of overall um Strokes
Gain total this season or Strokes G Tia green um I had that up here let me let me find that real quick um Novak so far this season on the PGA tour has he’s 18th in Strokes gain T green 17th in Strokes gain total in the top 20
In strc approach and also 21st in around the green so a lot of just really strong results from Novak so far this season that continued last week in Houston when he finished in a tie for 53rd but he lost around the green and putting but
Before that TI for 17th the V bar missed the cut at the players and then three consecutive top 10s at the cognizant Mexico open and the Phoenix Open and at all those top 20 finishes gained at and three out of those four gained over a stroke on approach so he does have some
Upside he is average in length off the te and average driving distance but I thought that his strong approach play and stronger around the green game gave him some upside and because he’s not a household name hasn’t really found himself in contention on the on Sunday I
Think that there’s an advantage in him just being lesser known and kind of out of the Public’s eye and so for this top 20 top 30 board I like that uh not betting it heavily but I wanted to get some exposure to him because I didn’t
Love I thought it was just a misprice so I like Novak’s consistency I think he’s got a good chance there I think if you look specifically at Novak he’s going to be very popular in DFS contests this week that’s a nice way to potentially go against the grain and I’m
Not saying to fade him in DFS but this is another way to get exposure to him where you can back him in some of these placement markets and and just go that route with it um whether it’s the betting board in the placement Market that you’re talking about there or we’re
Specifically talking DFS contest he was one of the most mispriced players I had on the board where my model was much more bullish on his potential than the market seems to be and I mean I talked about this last week Roberto when when I had an outright ticket on him I think
Markets have just been slowed to move with some of these names and maybe it’s the fact that Novak is not a household name maybe it’s the fact that the markets are waiting for regression on him and and I understand that but it’s the same answer that we gave for Eric
Cole for practically 12 months and we have finally now gotten that regression come into play with him but you know books were slow to move and if this is a spot where a book is slow to move on Novak there could continue to be potential to just keep hammering away on
These Wagers so I I think that he is one of those you know five or six names layard was another one we could talk about a handful more I’m sure throughout the show but those were the names for me that were just mispriced Commodities that have a little bit more maybe safety
Built into it and a little bit more value than the market seems to think they do we’ll get into the out into the outright board and uh our rapid fire in just a moment but you mentioned guys who have had a shift in their odds one
Person that I wanted to point out was Davis Riley he’s 100 to1 to win this week he went back to working with uh one of his old coaches and he said that he’s got some of his old feels back that were part of when he was really successful in
The 2022 season when he lost in a playoff at the Valar to Sam Burns he got really close on a couple other occasions including at Colonial he’s somebody who I’ve got my eye on we talked about on this show when looking down the odds board in the past saying who’s the
Longest who has the longest odds who can win this week said Davis rally he can win he’s been out of form and I have no idea when he’s going to get him back he’s showing some signs of Life he’s not in the two to 300 one range to win
Outright anymore he’s in the 100 to1 range he’s 100 to one on our sponsor bet 365 but he gained over three and a half Strokes on approach or sorry he gained 09 Strokes per round on Approach at the Valar where he did miss the cut because
He was poor off the te and then last week at the Houston open where he could take advantage of some of his driving distance even though he was a little below the field average driving distance he was over over 1.3 Strokes gained per round on approach so and that was after
Being a big loser on approach basically every other week so far this season so he’s showing some signs of life has that top 14 that TI for 14th last year which was his first top 20 finish since he won the zurk classic of New Orleans in April
Last year in the tw- Man team event with Nick Hardy so it’s shocking that he was lost wandering in the desert for so long he’s showing some signs of life I haven’t added him to the outright card because I need more than just the strong approach play but I think he does have
Some upside his uh poor around the green numbers pulled me off of him in the outright Market but I might find a way to back him in some Market this week I haven’t quite figured that out and that’s why I wanted to bring him up see
If you had any uh thoughts on that but he’s somebody who I might try to Target in the coming weeks following the Masters and um the RBC Heritage I mean probably not for me just cuz like like you said I’d like to see it again but immaculate Tea Green numbers at the
Houston open and he has gained around the Green in two of the past three starts you highlighted the approach numbers that have spiked in back-to-back weeks and he also added 2.2 Strokes in total at the Houston open so the numbers are turning around for like I mean there
Are certain players Roberto I would say that as an entire show we have been very high on Stephen jger like it’s not I I bet him a lot and I’m probably the the person who goes down that well the most but I think all three of us find a way
On Tim more frequently than the mass public would in these spots I was a Davis Riley supporter I have never been the Davis Ry supporter that you have been though like Davis Riley has definitely been your guy over the course of time and um I thought I was kind of
Bullish on him and you were even more so in a lot of these spots I I do think it’s intriguing though for a golfer that showed so much promise last season in that models aren’t going to love the production that he’s put together over any duration period of time that is not
Just looking at like a six turn or a six round sample size here but um I think for me that’s kind of why I’d like to see it again like if you can do this one or two more times and prove your back I’d almost rather just jump in at that
Total when it drops a little bit and just realize like okay I’m back in on a golfer that’s trending in the right direction versus yeah we’ve gotten six rounds but there’s still questions marks because like even the problem is is yeah he produced at the valpar with his
Approach game but he also went nuclear in the wrong direction with the driver he did that at the Players he did that at Pebble Beach he did that at the Sony Open he did that at the century like maybe he’s found something working with this new stuff now but like I I don’t
Know Roberto that would kind of just be my take that it’s like I’m optimistic but there’s also the concerns that it’s it’s just a flash in the pan sort of a six round performance yeah the concerns with him aren’t that just it was the approach play it was
That everything was pretty rough for a while and the one reason why I’m intrigued by him is because in 2022 when he was playing some great golf it was all in the span of two or three months so it was pretty streaky and so I kind
Of feel like he’s one of those guys where you got a strike while the iron’s hot but I don’t love the course fit this week and there are some other Kinks to work out in this game so I’ll be monitoring him maybe we can find a matchup or something like that that
Might make some sense this week but overall I think this is something that I’m going to be monitoring for a couple weeks out uh and I’ll find my spot at another tournament to be named later and you’ll hear here but with that being said let’s jump into the rapid fire
Segment of our show we haven’t touched on the top of the board very much at bet 365 Rory mroy is 10 and 1 half to one ludvig oberg is 12 and 1 half to one if you had to place an outright ticket on one of those two who would you pick I
Seem to be on my own island with this answer does it not feel like this is the prototypical answer that Rory’s going to put together where he goes into this event he wins he enters Augusta with all the momentum in the world and I’m not going to say that he necessarily doesn’t
Produce because I always seem to think he produces in these spots but I think the Market’s a little bit too low on him in general I kind of liked Rory this week um maybe that’s more of a DFS answer above anything else but I think Rory’s an intriguing
Play I think they’re both intriguing I mentioned to you offir that I was hoping to maybe find oberg in the 21 range and start my card there but he opened at 15 to1 shrunk down here Rory mroy opened around eight eight and a half to one and
Has gotten longer to around 10 and a half to one I still think I’d rather have Rory at 10 and a half than luig at 12 and a half but we’ll see what happens week moving down the board nobody else is shorter than 21 20 to1 so Hideki
Matsuyama is 21 to1 Jordan spe is 24 Cory Connor defending Champion 27 Max hom is also 27 uh we’ll leave Fitzpatrick out because they both have tickets on him but among matama speed Connors and hom at those prices which one would you rather have a ticket on
Spencer it’s a nice price on H um I was kind of intrigued by that total to where you look at this weighted proximity inside of my model 15th for this tournament compared to his expected Baseline elsewhere have 66 so um I know we haven’t exactly gotten what we wanted
From him so far this season but there are certain players and he seems to be one of them when the production does not exactly produce at the rate that people want he drifts in his price and I think at some point you just drift too far in some of these fields and
With any semblance of form entering this event I mean what he’s probably he’s probably the third favorite at 15 16 to1 14 to1 that was a lot of why I bet on him this week I was like he’s probably the third or fourth best golfer in this
Field but his odds are longer than I would have anticipated and so I found myself betting him for that upside yeah makes a lot of sense going down the board Colin morawa is 32 to1 Billy horel is 35 to1 so is Alex Norm we’ll leave
Him out of this ran Harmon is 37 to1 Tommy Fleetwood is 37 to1 and Harris English also 37 to1 you got the tickets on norin and Fleetwood in this range so outside of those two guys if you had to take a free ticket on one of these
Players who would you take who was the first name in that list Roberto Mory Kawa your favorite guy I mean unfortunately he’s probably close to that answer there um I’ll go with part of me wants to say Harris English just because my model is never really that aggressive in backing him and
Inside of the top 10 for me this week almost across the board uh in all ways that I ran this and that’s about as high as he’s ever gotten in my sheet uh 12th and weighted expected scoring really good at those long Par Four ranges that
You’re going to have to salvage a score going to have to produce a little bit better than what he has so far this year in par five bird or better percentage but uh was one of the large climbers for me on these specific par fivs compared
To other ones on T he jumped from 68th on any par five to 39th specifically for these par FES so of a sudden if you start getting top 40 par five production for him you’re probably going to need a little bit more than that to actually
Win this event but I think English is from a modeling perspective there’s a lot to like about him yeah he’s been really solid recently morawa on the other hand has not lost Strokes on approach in each of his last two tournaments which I’m looking back in his history
Here on data golf trying to find consecutive tournaments where he’s L Strokes on approach and the last time that happened was in 2020 where he lost over a stroke and a half in Two Rounds at The Travelers and then over four rounds at the RBC Heritage he lost 6
100s of a stroke per round so very very minimal loss that week but it’s it’s been four years so I don’t anticipate him losing Strokes again this week but his patented baby cut has been missing left a little bit and that’s a huge concern I think it feels like he’s
Making his first start here in San Antonio trying to find his game to ramp up for to ramp up for the Masters next week I don’t think he’s going to win this week but anytime he gets outside 30 to1 I think it’s not a terrible bet on
Him because he does have upside that I think the other guys in this in this range don’t so I would lean morawa but I’m not betting him this week officially yeah I I think that his price has drifted probably a little bit further than it should here’s where the
Concern is really stemming from inside of my model which is also taking about 70% of my weight still currently like I only have 30% on the current season so the other 70% is from last year morawa for me in this event is 47 in proximity from outside of 200 yards not exactly
The number that you would want to see if you look last year and threw every single player on tour that had qualifying data into the mix here he would be 32 tied for 302 overall in proximity from outside 200 yards so he’s worse in this event when just comparing
The people that he’s playing this week than he was last year comparing him against the entire PGA Tour that kind of shows where the troubles have occurred this year for morawa the long iron proximity is not producing at the level that it once did I do have concerns
Because of that reason but outright betting is a little bit different than some of these safe markets I do think the price there’s an argument to be made that he’s probably drifted a little bit too far up this board and he’s the type of golfer with the pedigree that at any
Moment he could turn it around I those answers are very obvious in my model when he’s 27th overall he’s 10th for upside he’s 38th for safety those are the upside marks that I am looking for when trying to find Value on this board and then calculating in those numbers
Didn’t end up becoming a value for me still but not as far off as you would think for a name that I I never ever other than at the Zozo when I got it right one time ever back yeah we both had him at the Zozo
Which I still think is the best course in the world for him um yeah I also if we see Signs of Life from him in the next two weeks he could be a play at relatively decent odds for the Heritage over there at Hilton Head so I’m
Intrigued by that his accuracy and lack of distance will definitely play there uh as we’ve seen so Spencer we’ve covered everybody who is 50 to1 or shorter here the only person otherwise who is in the 40s is Ben on um where can the people find your work this week and
Then leading up to the Masters next week yeah you can find me on Twitter at tof sports I did green. daily today with Charlie uh we were we talked about a lot of this stuff that we mentioned on this show uh there’s there’s a lot of a lot
Of stuff that I’m going to be producing between now and the Masters um we’ll talk about it on Action Network a lot of those articles will be put out but until we get to the Masters uh you can find my in tournament bets here uh on Thursday probably and on Saturday
Definitely it’s always going to be one of either Thursday or Friday always on Saturday you can also get some more outright thoughts from me on Wednesday here at action awesome look forward to reading those uh you can find me here on action and on X Roberto
A213 hope you listen to our or hope you tune in to our PJ Tour live coverage of the Houston open last week it was an awesome tournament drama down all the way uh down to back nine so it was fun my next one I believe is the CJ cup
Byron Nelson so do another Texas event in about a month uh but other than that you can find me on action and on X formerly known as Twitter so big thanks to everybody who makes this podcast possible especially our producers Noah neher uh and Matt Mitchell and want to
Give a big thanks to all of you listeners for tuning in this week and every week Spencer wanted to go back through you got outrights on Matt Fitzpatrick Tommy Fleetwood Alex noren Nate Lashley you got your best bet on Rogers over Lee Hodes at minus 110 you
Got the lar plus 210 bet for a top 40 you got the Nate Lashley plus 220 bet for a top 40 was there anything else that I missed out there uh Lashley to come top 20 at uh five plus 525 awesome plus 525 there I have spencon in so my placements I have
Senson plus 475 for a top 20 Mitchell plus 180 for a top 30 also sprinkled at plus 300 for top 20 that top 30 bet on Mitchell was my best bet I’ve got Andrew Novak plus 225 for top 30 and plus 375 for a top 20 and then I also
Have outrights on H at 27 to1 Fitzpatrick 30 to1 Keith Mitchell 85 to1 Eric Van royan 100 to1 and Adam senson at 165 to1 so that is our wrapup thanks again for everybody for tuning in this week and we hope that you’re out right bets hit here in San Antonio and we’ll
See you next week at Augusta National
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Great podcast guys. Sub’d
I took Tommy Fleetwood