PGA DFS Rankings for The Valspar Championship – Noto’s PGA Model

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) is back to break down the field for The Players Championship this week! You can get a peek at Noto’s PGA Model, available to download for Premium users and complete with customization options to put you ahead of the field in your PGA DFS contests!

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What is up everybody and welcome back we have a lot to get to with the model but first let’s talk about the PLAYERS Championship what a finish we had on Sunday Scotty sheffler came out of nowhere with the 64 uh with a whole out Eagle on the front nine and just really

Didn’t hit any bad shots on the back nine he’s found his Putter and uh yeah the rest of the PJ tour better watch out you know I had an outright on Xander so it was a very painful Sunday for me uh I thought had no chance after his

Back-to-back bogey but then he birdies the part five so I’m thinking okay maybe a miracle he throws a dart on the 17th hole incredible shot nobody had been birding that hole all day uh Windam Clark also threw a dart in there um Xander misses his six-footer Clark ends up making his

Four-footer um to get to minus 19 and Brian Harman was a minus 19 as well with Sheffer in the clubhouse at minus 20 and then you know Harmon had like a footer that he missed to to get into the playoff in the final hole Xander drove

It into the trees so it wasn’t much he could do there ended up hitting it you know way past the flag two putting for par and then Windam Clark man uh just absolutely brutal if you had money on him um his putt rammed the hole did the

Full horseshoe um he thought it dropped he took not only one step he took a step and paused and then took a step again thinking it went in um but yeah great player championship love TPC Saw Grass ready to head into this week which is uh the vbar championship now we’ll talk

About the course here in a minute I wanted to make a couple notes on the model I added total driving as you can see here and I had an issue with sample size this week so it’s not the best build so you’re going to get a lot of

Golfers that don’t have a large sample size of data at Le shotlink data and what this will did uh to the model if you are using any sort of you know stat engine to you know run your ratings run your projections you’re going to get some pretty wonky guys you know popping

Up at the top of your point per dollar projections and that is because a lot of these guys just don’t have a lot of rounds and the rounds that they do have look really good so somebody like Jacob Bridgeman somebody like Rafael C compos Hayden Springer was raing out as one of

The better Point per dollar options um so what I did is I went ahead and capped the uh stats for anybody that so for the three months column you had to have at least 10 rounds of data or else you just got a blank and the blank will

Correspond to the Vegas odds so um it’ll just give you the score of the Vegas odds so colie he’s not gonna have any um stats other than his um putting splits on on PO trivolis and so what that’s going to do is it’s going to give this

Entire that weight to his Vegas weight and I think that’s the best way to do it just because um guys that don’t have a big sample so somebody that’s only played eight rounds over the last like year on the PJ tour um if they had a good you know couple tournaments with

The irons they’re going to really project well but uh if they didn’t then they’re G to project really poorly so um that was kind of my way to combat this issue this week because there’s a lot of guys that um just really projected well that I didn’t think should project well

Um so I’m hoping that will um help improve the overall result of the model this week um let’s see if there’s anything else I think that is just about it in terms of the model so let’s talk about the course it is inisbrook um the copper head course at inisbrook Resort

Um very different from the other Florida courses it plays more like a Carolina’s course um there’s a lot of elevation changes a lot of tree line Fairways a lot of dog legs so you’re going to see um it looks a lot different on TV it plays a lot different than your typical

Florida courses it’s a little bit more predicted by the trees um so we’ll talk about some of the comps here in a bit but um the average driving distance here was only 280 yards last year so definitely one of those courses that does require um a lot of force layups on

Some of these holes um and then when it comes to approach shots you’re going to have a lot of approach shots from 175 plus I think over 50% of approach shots in 2023 ended up coming from at least 175 yards that is taken into account into the model as well which we’ll talk

About the greens are pretty small and then just looking at last year’s data 55% um driving accuracy 55% green regulation so that low G rate um definitely places an emphasis on iron play The Long iron play like we mentioned and then around the green play you’re going to be missing a lot of

Greens so you got to be able to scramble if you do want to contend at this course it’s a unique par 71 that it is uh four part fives five part 3es so you’re going to get you know one less part four than

Usual on a part 72 and uh you know a lot less part fours than you’d see on a part usual normal part 71 or part 70 um let’s see if there’s anything else as always I got the golfer notes in here um as always thank you for joining me

And if you do want to download the model you can customize it to your own liking come up with your own ratings use those ratings in lineup HQ to optimize lineups based on those ratings that you come up with yourself which is a lot of fun

That’s kind of my favorite thing when it comes to modeling is that I decide the inputs so the outputs are going to you know end up being uh decided by you know what goes into the model and you can do that with this model so if you want to

Join RG premium we’d love to have you if you want to join the Discord just to sweat with us um it’s a lot of fun in there we talk about research basically up until lineup lock you know who we like who we don’t like and then once

Lineup’s lock it’s a lot of uh cheering and uh you know a lot of sadness when guys you know end up missing the cuts so it’s a lot of fun um make sure to check that out and if you just want to watch this video each week on YouTube I

Appreciate that as well hit the thumbs up um subscribe to the road Grinders channel that goes a long way as well now let’s get to the stats so pretty spa way to off the te just because you bombers don’t have a big edge here but I did put

A 5% weight to Total driving this is a combination of accuracy and distance uh pretty big waste to strok scen approach so I have 2% over the last three months 3% over last 6 months 4% last 12 months and then the expected metric if you did not uh catch the last couple videos

Basically what this does is it takes the data golf numbers that show how many approach shots are expected to be hit from each 50 yard bucket for each golfer so they come up with the projection for each golfer which is pretty cool um they’ll say you know F now is expected

To hit 6.9 approach shots from 150 to 200 yards and then I’ll go through and actually look at the Str gain data of each golfer in those 50 yard buckets and apply those weights to come up with this expected approach metric that is based specifically on this course so this is

Going to change every week um even if the field doesn’t change these numbers are going to change so Xander number one fow 2 Camy young 3 Glover four who is going to be you a guy we talk about a lot in this video Kevin Roy is five he’s

One of those guys that has always been really good with the irons uh nothing else really clicks for him Gary Woodland Eric Cole JT Vegas and chz reevy kind of round out the top 10 now these are numbers over the last two years so there

Is a little bit of a bigger sample on this one everything else is capped at 12 months around the green bumped it up a little higher than usual Str G playing I did a 7% weight total this is one of those courses that demands you know more

Te to Green putting typically when we see a difficult course like this that is the case when we see you know birdie Fest where everyone’s hitting greens everyone’s hitting Fairways then it kind of turns into a putting contest and I’ll bump up putting a little bit more um the

Greens here they’re Bermuda with POA overseed so I just looked at for the putting split this week just uh you know courses other courses that have the same type of overseed so guys that have put the best on those over the last two years um Taylor Montgomery Griffin C

Burns mcne some of those names there and then I have 7% 8% total to birdie or better 8% total to bogy voidance course history um this event was not played here in 2020 that was right after Co hit so um skipped that year went back to

2018 uh course history has not been very predictive here year in and year out Waters in PL n holes that could have something to do with it um course fit metric stros gain in both Florida and in the Carolinas so again I think it’s going to play more like a Carolina

Course um so I kind of for the comp this week I looked at guys that play well on all the courses in Florida and the Carolinas got SP um who’s won at Harvard toown recently Xander Sam Burns Sun JM Justin Thomas pretty good names there Taylor Moore who won here last year

Haron always seems to play well at these type of courses and then I also looked at um difficult and really difficult courses um stros G on those those courses and that’s going to be Xander cam young Keegan Bradley Brian Harmon who we’ve mentioned a lot already and

Ton F now now the form of the last 10 weeks this is uh doesn’t actually have a weight that goes into the model it’s just for you to see how good a form golfers are in how often they’re playing so you look at somebody like Eric Cole he’s been playing a

Ton let me sort by the overall rankings so Eric Cole I mean he’s played 10 of the last 11 weeks um which is a lot so uh but he’s also and he’s also kind of you know struggled a little bit recently so maybe he’s a little bit tired who knows what it is

But uh just a way to look at form and also look at how often golfers are playing short-term forms um a combination between the last 24 rounds and the last three months midterm form is the last uh nine months and the last 50 rounds and long terms the last uh 14

Months and the last 100 rounds so that’s kind of this is Strow game total um pretty big weights all these I like to lean on the longer term when it comes to the more difficult courses okay let’s uh talk about the player pool we don’t have

Ownership up yet and that is for a very good reason I’m recording this video on Monday night and uh the reason why I’m recording it so early so ownership’s not out yet um yeah March Madness so me and my friends we have had a tradition since

We turned 21 we drive out to the nearest casino which is about you know an hour and a half away from here and we bet on every single first round game of the tournament uh we’ve been doing it for this will be the 15th year in a row so

Uh tradition got to keep that tradition alive um I know a lot of you are going to be sweating March Madness as well whether you’re doing brackets whether you’re betting on the games it should be a lot of fun so by the time um I post the model link ready to download we

Should have ownership out and I will uh have that updated in the model download so feel free to again join RG premium if you want to if you want to take a look at that now let’s uh talk about the player pool so Xander at the top with a

Rating of 95.6 much higher than anyone else in the field um he’s kind of the class of the field I do worry a little bit about you know the the tax the toll it takes uh when you’re in contention at a big tournament so him and Haron both

Were in contention all Sunday they both finished second both you know kind of heartbreaking finishes there for them so I do wonder if that you know is a little bit of a hindrance on their play this week but at the same time if you if you’re not looking for um you know

Non-statistical measures then you got Alexander up top 112 is not that bad especially since DraftKings has the $5,000 floorb Harmon rates out really well always plays well on these shorter courses and um yeah he uh had a fifth year in 2022 now I don’t mind either of

Them I don’t mind spe he has been mostly short game so far this year that does worry me a little bit he’s lost appro on approach and six of his last nine starts that’s a note that I have here so that’s a little bit of a concern on a on a

Course that definitely requires you to be good with your irons two that I really like up here I like Sam Burns and I like Justin Thomas Sam Burns elite course history won this event back-to-back gear Then followed it up with a sixth place finish JT three straight top 15 finishes both have been

Playing well this year JT missed the cut last week but he ended up gaining Strokes putting um or sorry gaining Strokes on approach 4.7 Strokes on approach he just had a really bad putting week that’s why he missed the cut Burns has been top 10 machine so far

This year he’s already got four of them so those are going to be my favorite two up top I couldn’t believe how well Doug gim rated out for me and the he rates out really well in the RG projections as well so I think he’s gonna be very

Popular uh five straight top 20 finishes the ball striking has been awesome during that stretch and he finished t27 here last year so he checks all the boxes he’s going to be popular but I like him quite a bit 8,400 fenale has been great on approach not necessarily

The best fit for him since he is more of a bomber but the irons have been so good that I don’t mind looking to him Eric Cole burned me again last week that’s two of the last three events but uh yeah gotta think it’s a good course fit for

Him the only weakness is his driver so all he’s got to do Club down keep it in the Fairway he’s going to be just fine cam Young’s been absolutely on fire with the ball striking he’s gained over 17 Strokes on approach in his last five starts he just can’t chip and he can’t

Put um turns out you need those things in order to win a golf tournament but I do like him in tournaments I I think he could definitely win this week if he does have a decent week with the short game uh the other model favorite uh in

Addition to Doug gim is going to be Lucas Glover um he RS out 10th overall in the model don’t feel great about that um but the ball striking has been great good total driver of the ball um great approach player the putter is the only concern I

Mean he’s also been really good around the greens especially this year um he’s made his last three Cuts here I have a hard not hard time not playing Glover I like Aaron Ry he’s been very good with his ball striking lately Nick Taylor feels a tad overpriced he’s been playing

Some great golf this year so far hean um I don’t know he likes tough courses but the ball striking hasn’t been as good this year now the short game has definitely carried him a little bit I just I don’t have faith in Keegan keeping up a good putting um you know

Streak for much longer so that does worry me I don’t mind playing Sun Jaye tournaments finally playing a little bit better he had a t18 at the API t31 at the Players um the ball strike numbers are starting to come around a little bit speaking of a guy that’s been red hot

Sam Ryder um back toback top 25 finishes both in Florida top 20 here last year and he’s gained on approaching 13 of his last 14 starts so he’s a guy that at the short game comes around he could definitely post another top 10 finish hadwin’s been incredibly Boomer bust no

Strong take there for me I do think he has top 10 upside but he could also miss the cut he’s had a lot of that so far this year it’s good course fit for Brandon Todd um he’s losing a bunch of Strokes off the te but again he can hit

Driver here because he is so accurate and he’s not going to be losing a lot of Strokes as long as he’s hitting Fairways uh hits that soon’s been playing well did miss the cut on the number last week he uh got a little bit unlucky in that

He needed a birdie on his final hole he’s playing number nine TBC Saw Grass and the horn blew so play was suspended so we had to come out Saturday morning and Birdie the whole early in the morning um didn’t do it ended up missing the cut on the number Keith Mitchell

Um was really bad on the weekend cbz has just been terrible on off the tea I mean look at these total driving numbers they are not good whatsoever um and especially if you just look at you know guys that qualified had enough rounds um to qualify so he’s I

Mean bottom five in this field over the last three months um probably bottom 10 over the last six months it’s not good for CZ off the T but he has a very good iron player I typically like him on these short shorter courses uh in Florida but man that does worry me I

Don’t love the pricee point either Hoster I typically like him more West Coast Texas shank nearly won this event last year put together a strong Sunday finish at the Players I like him quite a bit minwoo I just don’t know I mean it he’s one of those guys that you just

Always play him in mme because he could pop anywhere for a top 10 finish but he could also miss a lot of cuts so no strong take on him mcne has been playing a little bit better but a lot of it been the short game I think he gained 7.9

Strokes around the green last week that is a unheard of type of number unless you’re Jordan Speed so that’s not sustainable he is a good putter but I want to see the ball striking come back a little bit so if he’s going to be popular I’m going to be underweight

There putam he played really poorly at this event for whatever reason but I think it’s a good Court fit for him he’s been playing pretty well um I think he’s only missed one cut all season um so don’t mind him Silverman’s been playing well he actually lives in Florida now

Talked about him a little bit last week um missed a cut but prior to that you know had a couple top 20 finishes so I don’t mind getting back on him I think he played yeah he’s played this event a couple times Berger 7200 I think for the

Talent I think he’s worth a flyer I don’t wouldn’t look his way in single entry or cash games or anything Victor Perez I really like him this week as a flyer he’s one of those guys that can play well um on these difficult courses back toback top 20 finishes played here

Last year made the cut Jimmy Stanger I don’t know a lot about him um he’s coming off of four straight top 40 finishes I think he was third at the Puerto Rico so guy that’s playing well maybe ride the hot form with him at 6,900 Ben Griffin his ball strikings

Taed off a little bit the short game still been very good Taylor Montgomery was all putting last week at his t11 I like straa in tournaments he’s a guy that finally flash him upside he’s a good ball Striker he can get red hot um

At any time so I’ll I’ll Place him ah h and then my favorite cheap guy is g to be Alexander Bor he’s one of those guys that if you look at his numbers on the DP World Tour Elite accuracy Elite iron player and really good putter so I mean

That really plays well here he’s also pretty good around the greens he hasn’t shown it on the PJ tour yet but I think this is one of the better course fits for him nice to see colie playing well again he’s uh you know made the cut in three

Of his first four starts all top thir all top 35 finishes Novak’s top 10 streak came to an end last week um but I don’t I don’t mind getting back on him sigs made both of his Cuts here that’ll do it I mean we don’t even talk about all these

Guys we have a full show dedicated to breaking down the player pool and I have player notes for you know half the field so if you want to read those I would love for you to do that best of luck this week at the VP Championship I’m

Hoping to hit out right I’m hoping to have a good week at DFS I’m hoping the same for you best of luck we’ll see you next week