On today’s show, Ryan goes over the opening lines for the Valspar Championship, which has a solid field on a great host course. Which favorites stand out? Are there any long shots mispriced on the odds board?
Hey everybody Welcome to the Press welcome to the start of a new week it is the week of the vbar championship down in the Tampa area coming off of The Players Championship I’m Ryan B it’s great to have you here today hope you had a good winning week uh I picked up
Scotty sheffler at plus 260 I think it was maybe it was plus 280 one Sunday afternoon about 12th hole for his round maybe 13th hole and just kind of had a feeling that that maybe something good could happen there amid a tight leader board with Xander and Brian Harmon and
Windam Clark in there and ultimately that cash for me so it turned out to kind of be a a slightly net loser for the week I think I lost $5 for the week which I can live with that that’s fine I told you I would not bet Scotty Sheffer
On principal ahead of the tournament but wanted a little sweat on Sunday afternoon and well I got it so that worked out I actually wound up betting wendam Clark at 18 to1 after he had hit his shot into 16 just I don’t know I just get this feeling about wam Clark as
A guy who has learned how to channel his energy that in the right situation he can focus and he can play pretty well under pressure and unfortunately the putt did not drop on 18 for him went halfway down the hole lipped out and ultimately didn’t get a playoff so I I
Had it either way I I figured Xander would back down I wasn’t convinced Brian Harman could do it I love Brian Harman a lot I think he’s wonderful player and I I may bet him for the Masters about I’m going to look up his odds after we do this podcast today
I may look him up for the Masters wiam Clark I probably will take for the Masters as well and since we’re thinking about that already then we’ll get to valpar in a second start trying to find golfers from the start of the Year basically the start of the year who are
Gaining one and a half Strokes per round on average historically in the last 20 years that’s where your Masters went comes from is one of those type players so I would very strongly urge you to use our tools keep track of that build your list now go find some values you know
Taking out some of the other criteria that you know about the Masters like first- timers don’t win and then narrow down your list pretty quickly go get a couple Futures bets that you like that maybe you think you’re mispriced and then we’ll come back to those maybe we
Do that on a a Thursday show this week so today we’ll go over the valpar championship opening lines first clicks things like that tomorrow we’ll go over the model for the tournament and then our Wednesday show we’ll touch on the Singapore classic which is this week the lpj is back in
Action the fur Hills seac Championship they’ve played this tournament the last couple years at a place called palis veres Estates talk about that and I think that’s all the action we really have this week so uh we’ll we’ll talk about those tournaments on Wednesday and then maybe try to slip in some other
Advice also a shout out to our friends of the world pting league they have an event today in Myrtle Beach South Carolina they have a four-person tournament uh it’s miniature golf it’s put putut and they stream it live uh you can get some plus money action on every
Player in the field um there I don’t know anything about these players but if you want a little random Monday afternoon sweat starts 1:00 Eastern in the afternoon so check that out the you can bet on most books but I’m looking at youra Kings if uh you’re interested in
That so let’s get in the lines for the valpar championship this tournament is played at INB Resort Copperhead course par 71 it is a difficult course from T to Green you have to manage your ball very well around this golf course I think that’s why a lot of better players like
It it gets a surprisingly pretty decent field every year because of that reason because this is a ball strikker tournament it it plays a little bit longer on some of the shots it doesn’t have a ton of terrain difference I mean it is still Florida so you got to keep
It between the trees good shots matter relatively small targets it’s it’s a thinker’s golf course and I I think it had a bad reputation earlier in the tournament’s life but now I think a lot a lot of the players like playing this tournament and if it weren’t the week after the players
I think it would get an even better field to be honest with you uh Xander shafley tops the table Patrick kley was in this tournament he withdrew and the reason is there is a well it’s not secret anymore but there’s a meeting today between the PJ tour policy board and its
Members including the players who are on it can’t Le is one of them and the Saudis so I think that’s why he withdrew from this shle is 8 to1 Sam Burns is a two-time winner of this event went back to back in 21 and two and he’s 12 to one
Justin Thomas who missed the cut last week uh and one and done me pretty good uh by missing the cut he is also 12 to1 speeds 12 to1 I also want to Circle him for the Masters by the way I heard some really good statistics during the PJ PJ
Tour live broadcast about his make percentage from 15 to 20 feet which is kind of his sweet spot range when he’s making putts in that range a lot of good scoring can happen because that means he’s making unlikely birdies and Eagles he’s saving pars he struggles a lot from kind of six
To8 feet sometimes even inside of six feet but if he’s making those mid-range pots that means he’s not leaving those and if he’s making him better clip which he has been this year compared to his best years like 2015 and 16 and 17 so I might want to look him up for the
Masters I know his odds probably aren’t great but he’s a very much a public figure to bet but maybe worth just just a couple dollars especially if he starts to play well in the next couple starts and we don’t have that long until the Masters like 25 days so 24 days now I
Think uh Tony Tony fenel is 20 to1 so he’s back he took took the API off now he’s going to go play this event so maybe that was the the even trade and I really don’t I still don’t know the reason why he didn’t play API but
Nevertheless sunj M 22 to1 Cameron young 22 to1 Brian Haron 25 to1 and the days of Nick Taylor at 100ish to one are gone he’s 35 to1 this week along with mwu Lee keath Mitchell hegan Bradley Eric Cole your 40s Bo hostler well he’s just 140
Adam hadwin’s 50 to1 he’s a prior winner here Christian maaden hoit and Aaron Ry torbjorn olison 55 to1 sep straa Patrick Rogers Doug gim Billy H horel 60 to1 Taylor Montgomery 65 to1 Maverick Ney is also 65 to1 maybe a GU a circle this week Ryan Fox 70 to1 don’t love as much
Along with Andrew putam the defending Champion I’m just going to point him out and then we’ll stop here Taylor Moore is 80 to1 along with Davis Thompson and Brendan Tod who’s been playing some pretty okay golf so not uh not the deepest lineup obviously compared to the
Last two weeks because you had basically 40 to 42 of the world top 50 in the official World Golf Ranking in the field for both of these tournaments the last couple weeks and they were great now we have a diminished number of those players more like 12 which that makes it
One a little bit better on the odds board right you’re getting some better numbers for this week but you’re still not getting some of the value like like I mentioned with Nick Taylor that I I wish you would be able to get on a week like this and maybe
That’s I mean Nick Taylor has played well right we’ve been pointing out that he’s been playing well keep bet Nick Taylor so maybe that’s why uh maybe the books are starting to notice that he actually is a you know good golfer and he’s playing good golf right now he has
Faded pretty strongly and I had a first round leader ticket on him on just kind of pulled the pulled the trigger on it when he was like two under through five or something and he almost got me there Rory got me there I had him uh at late
Stage to just kind of even everything out but so I mean had some winning bets for the week but nothing particularly special so that’s kind of the the top of the table I think it’s worth looking at the history of this tournament the V bar again is
A it’s an interesting one because Paul Casey’s won here back to back he doesn’t win anything Sam Burns is a Bermuda guy he won here back to back Adam had won here out of nowhere um this tournament kentle comes back to this tournament because they gave him an
Exemption when he came back from the car wreck back injury type stuff that that he dealt with and the horrific car accident that he had to deal with but it’s a it’s a strange set of winners there’s no Arc Type other than they struck the ball really well for that
Week Luke Donald is one here a phenomenal putter not a long hitter Adam hatn not a long hitter Sam Burns a long hitter Paul Casey sneaky long but not long when he was winning it it is Gary willins one here he’s massively long it it’s a very
Strange kind of set of uh set of winners Sam Burns finished sixth year last year way so went back to back tried to go back to back to back I mean he was in it on Sunday for a while I don’t remember how long he shot 67 on Sunday to make a
Nice move his problem was the second round 73 so he’s been good here the last three years you almost kind of have to like what he brings to the table but Adam hadwin has won here that was pre the last five years but he was seventh here
In 2022 Brian Haron I think is someone you’re going to like he was fifth here two years ago he’s had a pretty decent record here sunj M was fourth here in 2019 really hasn’t done anything since a bunch of live guys like this tournament kraak Lou usas I mean those
Guys aren’t playing this tournament anymore uh Matthew neith with third here in 2022 I think this was the tournament that really first put him on my radar to bet Adam shank was runner up here last year still not playing quite as good golf this year but what was on that
Radar SMI really attracted a lot of attention to this tournament tournament last year I was driving back from somewhere in the in the final round listen on the radio he finished third and just I think on the 72nd ho maybe made a bogey or something tried he
Needed a birdie to get in the playoff this is a Justin Thomas kind of tournament too uh he’s finished in the last three years here 13th 3rd and 10th so likes the golf course but beyond that there aren’t a lot of players who just scream out hey I like this golf
Course that makes this week a little bit tricky also not having as deep of a field you know some of the guys you think about being really good are the ones that have kind of shorter odds because they’re they’re good ball Strikers so we’re not worried about necessarily as much course history this
Week because it’s a kind of democratic tournament I mean they’re the two guys that stand out are Burns and Thomas and I think you can like Burns here he’s showed up pretty well at times and I think you can like Thomas too you’re not getting as much of a bump in
Price as you might hope for him missing the cut at the Players I mean you would hope that you would have gotten him like 15 or 16 to1 instead of 12 to1 because he missed the cut kind of ran his mouth about Taylor G and live and maybe that
Ticks him off makes him M but he does have great course history here I I I can’t bet Xander shle at 10 to one or less I mean that that just doesn’t make sense to me you saw what happened on Sunday the players it was predictable that is basically his career in a
Nutshell where you put up a good finish and it looks like a good number and it seems like he had a great tournament and he did but he should have won and he didn’t and that’s that’s his life in the big tournaments unfortunately so thinking about this week I will you know
Sheffer’s kind of at the point where he if he’s figured out to play like this you kind of have to bet him you almost have to bet him it’s his odds are going to get extremely short but someone Alexander who almost never wins at 8 to1
You you just can’t that I can’t I can’t get there I’m not going to get there I’m never going to get there so we’ll that’ll be the only thing I say about sander shley this week we will not come back to him at all we usually get into
The tournament model on on Tuesdays you know the second show for the week but I I do think it is worth pointing out just kind of looking at players in the field guys who have been playing very well and strokes gained in total the last 10 tournaments Doug gim’s one of
Those guys been playing very well had a had a very nice Players Championship I think he’s someone you got to look out for playing really good on the approach really everything looks good in Doug gims game right now he just doesn’t get there often enough I think to be someone that you
Could bet but this is a tournament that also produces its fair share of firsttime winners or surprise winners so I think Doug gim is a guy you should strongly consider this week Keith Mitchell’s another guy that I really really like I think a lot of people
Liked him at the Honda as well because he’s got a good track record there as a champion but I I think I would like him a lot here as well just good solid driver of the golf ball Eric Cole is not playing his best golf and I he’s
Starting to kind of maybe come back to the the mean a little bit he’s losing Strokes on the approach so I would stay away from him in those last 10 tournaments really he’s borderline break even the putting is what’s saving him other than that I would maybe throw
It we’ve talked about Nick Taylor a bazillion times Billy horel is playing pretty good golf but he’s saving it with a short game there is some room for short game here the rough isn’t so deep that you like API where it doesn’t really matter everyone’s going to
Struggle so maybe he’s a guy to look at Sam Burns is on the cusp of extremely good golf but he’s putting really well and this is a Surface he likes now so he likes the Bermuda putts well on the Bermuda and particularly the Bermuda that’s at inisbrook so I I me you’re
Getting a decent number on them it’s not terrible it not great but I don’t know I I think I might might try to have him as be my chalk pick so to speak um and then wanted to point out Andrew Novak as well he’s 130 to1 if you look at his
Game he’s the kind of guy who could win here has you know enough length right he’s gaining Strokes pretty well in every facet of the game except putting so you need to have a a better putting week basically to win but he’s just barely losing Strokes putting and he’s
130 to1 and he’s on this list of kind of recent form and this is from the players field I haven’t updated it yet with the the field for the the valp but he’s obviously here he’s gaining a stroke around in total that’s that’s good enough for me I’m I’m willing to get
Behind that at 130 to1 I think you could think about the same thing for Alex Bor Samu alaki they’re 130 and 150 to1 individually I I I think that’s pretty good Jimmy Stanger is kind of interesting to me because he he really should have won the Puerto Rico
Tournament he didn’t really need a whole lot of good scores down the stretch he just didn’t get it done so maybe there’s and that’s his only top 10 on the season by the way but maybe he takes a positive away from that brings it to this tournament and then does something good with
It but if you look at I mean it was T3 there he’s t35 at the Players which is a really good week for him t35 at uh PJ National t38 at the Mexico open T14 at the American Express so the guy’s not playing bad golf this field isn’t like the Puerto
Rico open field where there are a bunch of players who haven’t played in two years and then one of them just wins but it’s definitely not as good as the players it’s more like PGA National in terms of quality and he’s hanging in there I I think he’s an interesting guy
To look at at 10030 to1 I mean I I could kind of live in this region all week Ryan Moore I could live with at 151 although I mean he he just hits so many Fairways he just he finds himself in play so often that on a golf course this
Tough that’s a good thing do I think he’s worth a bet over YY or Bor or Novak or Sager no but I could get behind that if you made a stronger case I suppose Tom dietry is interesting to me I like Tom dietry he’s 110 I kind of bet him
Irrationally just sometimes it kind of feels like a good Tom dri week okay the the six putt or whatever it was from a couple weeks ago is probably still stuck in a lot of people’s heads and that for good reason um might be a reason to avoid him I really want to
Like Ryan Fox this week because I liked him a couple weeks ago and I may still come around with it but that 70 to1 number I don’t love I want it more like 100 but he is an extremely good golfer and it’s really easy for people to
Forget because they don’t see him all the time because he was winning more frequently on the DP World Tour but he was t35 at the cognizant classic he did miss the cut of the players I I kind of throw out the players because a lot of random results happen in that
Tournament and typically especially in The Last 5 Years you really got to be in good current form to win that tournament there’s no there aren’t flukes anymore at the Players last five six years it just hasn’t been that way so Ryan Fox isn’t playing that caliber of golf which
Is kind of why I want him more like 100 to one but the good golf is there I know it’s there I know he can do it he’s still struggling with the transition to the PGA Tour but when it clicks he’s going to be extremely good so maybe 70
If you could find him elsewhere you know I probably get in into that at like 8590 I I wanted 100 but 8590 I could live with but and they’re you know different books everywhere given different prices and maybe look at like a bet 365 they give really good numbers
On those deeper plays and I’ll give a shout out out by the way to um River the folks at Rivers bet Rivers they do each way bets for golf you don’t really get that any other American Sports Book for golf where you can bet two bets and you
Can get a basically a top seven bet or top eight bet depending I for what they do and a win bet I like the each way bet because and if your guy gets a good week you get a you know one of price basically it’s it’s not bad it it but
You’re really looking for deeper shots you’re looking for these guys down here Novak and Sammy and Jimmy Stanger and Alex Bor guys that you think have the possibility to do extremely well but you’re you know cutting that price to 40 50 to one 30 40 50 to one on a guy to finish
In the top seven that’s that’s doable that’s livable I can work with that um heading back up toward the the top of the board I think I’m going to bet Doug gim at 60 to1 I I really want to bet Maverick mcney he had a tougher Sunday uh at at the
Players and I’m okay with that he’s got the capability to win I know he does he’s been heralded for a long time as a guy who’s going to eventually win heralded by me as a guy who’s eventually going to win hasn’t happened yet came back off injury T9 at
The Players is a really good finish for him he just kind of went sideways on Sunday was t-41 at PJ National which is fine t-13 in Mexico T6 the Phoenix Open it’s almost kind of like people are forgetting that he’s putting up good finishes I know he’s
Never one this could be a good place for him 65 to one I think is worth that number compared to Ryan Fox at 70 I’m going to take Maverick mcney because he’s playing really really well and hopefully for him being in the mix on Sunday truly in the mix on Sunday took
Some things away took some confidence away learned some things about himself about his game get him ready for the tournament I think there are going to be a fair number of people who bet Adam hadwin this week at 50 to1 because of what he being a winner
Here I think I’m going to pass on him I’d rather go with Keith Mitchell I would really like this to be a minw Lee week is just kind of a fan of the guy he he’s kind it’s been an awkward year I feel like um he he’s played some very good golf I
Mean he’s 52nd in the fedx cup he’s got one top 10 finish so he’s had some marginally good finishes but nothing that’s screaming I’m about to win but then he almost wins cuz he has a great week at PJ National finishes tied for second that’s his one top 10 finish and that
Get you a lot of FedEx Cup points so that’s why he’s 52nd but if you look at his other results t21 t-43 t71 t-44 t-54 it’s just it’s not quite there so this these odds are way too short for a guy who’s playing that kind of golf compared
To what Keith Mitchell’s doing Brian Taylor’s doing Brian Harmon’s doing I I think you should probably skip him this week skip Eric Cole Skip Bo hostler Christian Maden Hoy is H is quite interesting to he’s playing really good golf again very much flying under the radar t13 at the
Players uh t44 at the API miss the cut at PGA National t-24 T28 at the Phoenix Open T20 at pebble mean he’s keeping up with good Fields this field isn’t on that level so maybe something to it maybe something to like about what he’s doing this week we did
Mention him as a guy to potentially bet at the players and I I think I might go after him again this week 55 to1 I think you can kind of live in that range you know maybe maybe you pick Sam Burns as kind of your insurance policy
And then go dip into like a Brian Harmon or a Nick Taylor just cannot fit Nick Taylor 35 to1 that’s that’s almost unbeetable maybe a Keith Mitchell instead get into bazen hoit Doug gim or or Maverick MCN or both then maybe ride down all the way into the hundreds and start thinking
About Novak and Bor and Sammy valaki and those type of players and then maybe Jimmy Stanger I don’t know that that if Jimmy Stanger and Taylor Moore are not that different of golfers let’s put it that way so that that may be something to look at and
Then if you want to go Mega deep I don’t think you want to do that here this week but mty Schmid had a really nice week at the Players obviously didn’t finish it off but had a very good week he has the capability to play extremely good golf
At times finish wound up finishing t26 because he shot even par on Sunday just but he was T10 at Puerto Rico and then that was kind of like his show up moment for the year he missed the cut in Mexico at Phoenix and at PJ National and
Tori I mean he’s just been on a cut missing parade and then all of a sudden he’s playing pretty decently he is very streaky so if you want to try and ride that streak 200 to one may be worth your consideration Kevin stelman maybe but he’s so short now that’s that’s hard to
Get behind him and Charlie Hoffman are are 250 to1 stman has a good record on this golf course over the years but that was much earlier in his career when being as short as he is wasn’t as huge of a penalty as it is now Franchesco Molinari might be a fun
300 to1 bet he hasn’t played a whole lot of golf but he was t-54 at the Players so got to the weekend missed the cut of pebble or excuse me I want to say PE was PJ National and Mexico and then t73 at the Farmers Insurance
Open but he’s had but then he had a good week at the short field the Dubai Invitational finish fifth so there there is some decent golf out there in Franchesco Molinari is he is a great golf I don’t know about all that Adrien Deonte chart
Is pretty intriguing to me a 350 to one I think he is really really struggling trying to figure out how to play on the PGA Tour but maybe a T6 at the Puerto Rico open is what he needs to understand that he can do this I mean he came out
As a pro and won right away I mean made it super easy to get to the PJ tour from the corn fairy tour and came out to the PGA Tour and is just I mean just laid egg after egg after egg he made the cut of Tor
Finished 75th made the cut of Phoenix finished T6 miscut miscut and then T6 at Puerto Rico so maybe he’s working on something I don’t know but I feel like 350 to1 is way too deep for him it just it has to be because he hits the crap out of the
Ball and if he could just keep it straight if he can just keep it on the planet he’s goingon to say he’s going to be so far ahead of a lot of his peers this week so that might be my my mega bomb of the week you know three 50 to1
Is is quite deep all right that’s going to do it for us day on the show tomorrow we’ll go over the model and horse for course we we talked about tournament history a little bit we’ll come back to that a touch um you know there really aren’t a
Whole lot of horses for courses but there’s slightly more or slightly better ones than last week at the Players then on Wednesday we’ll talk about the lpj event in California talk about the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour and then we’ll we’ll try to have a a little conversation around Master’s odds
And and start thinking about players to bet there as well if you want to join golf newset it’s available for $40 a year join us at golf news net.com it’s $10 for the first week and I don’t know why you would do that but you can do
That if you want to try it out for a week and then pay for the the other $30 that’s fine too you can get a hold of me Ryan ofthe golfnet.com on Twitter threads X Instagram and blue sky Ryan belly I’m on Facebook and YouTube at
Ryan Bing Golf and golf newset all those services that they handle golf Newsnet we’ll be back tomorrow thanks listening talk to you tomorrow on the Press
