Tap in Birdie – Houston Open with @SharpMinds247

All right we’re live tapping birdie uh Houston open week here with Ryan AKA sharp selections on Twitter you asked to come on tib I got you on how you doing tonight man I’m doing great and such a pleasure for this week to come on you know like you give me the opportunity to

Bet on when someone’s three to one to win the tournament so yeah no great week PJ tours back I can go two ways I can take the favor and say I got my first winner on your show one for one or I can try to fade it and then if I’m wrong I

Can say it’s not really fair you know it’s that guy’s even money in a tournament so yeah no that I think that’s fair I think it there’s easy Vick laps either way because I think you could you easily Vick laap Scotty um winning this week and you know he most

Likely will win and I think it you know it’s some sort of a hot take this week to say that Scotty chefler is not going um to win I think that that covers uh more ground then then most weeks saying the tournament favorite uh isn’t going

To win um but um yeah no I’m honestly excited for this week I wish the field was a little bit better it it really falls off after kind of the first five guys um and obviously Scott is here but I think this is actually one of like the

Better courses that they play um on the PGA tour like I think it I like the fact that it’s a municipal course I like the fact that it’s super long I like the fact that it’s Tom do design um you know I think this is probably a better spot

In the schedule than in the fall but uh I’m a bit upset to see uh such a weak field this week yeah I mean we can talk about that I’ve been listen I mean I listen to a lot of content like every week I’m sure you do the whole Community does and it’s

Like people so they changed they changed the time of the schedule so now I wonder like how actually like different it’s going to be so I I would think in the summer it looks like it’s gonna be all dry this week it’s pushing the 80s some

Days I believe to me that sounds like there should be roll out but from what I’m reading with this I’m not I don’t know Agronomy that well I sit here in BS but I almost feel like there’s guys they can find the Fairway I I think it’s it’s

Warm enough in Texas I feel like it could be a little cooler in November but again I guess it’s all about the grass and again that’s not my place to say anything so I’m really curious to see how this plays and I kind of make my

Card to kind of account for all these options not just bombers so we’ll get into yeah no I uh I agree I thought it would play firmer in this time of year but it’s not um I know theala had um an interview today but uh my good friend G

Back CAD um just tweeted out some notes course is playing softer greens are rolling pretty fast with the overseed the ball will get less rooll in the rough so finding the Fairway is important and of course we’ll play longer um I would have thought that’s

The opposite but I guess not you know I I don’t think it really um should Factor too much into you know what we’re doing um this week but I I do think the change will will definitely um you know play a bit of a a factor but you are you know I

Wouldn’t say you’re like a normal Twitter like golf tout but you bet on everything you bet on all different sports your big NHL better you love betting on Colombian soccer and Russian soccer like you kind of bet it all so what’s kind of been your start to like

How did you get into gambling how did you get into posting your plays on Twitter um and like H how did you get to this point where where you’re at right now well I think it’s like I mean I feel like everybody has the same story but

You kind of start with like it depends you kind of grow up in a family like my dad gambl it all the time like casually but I don’t know what he does now now he’s like asking me for a pick so it’s funny how you grow up he’s like trying

To like don’t gamble don’t gamble now he’s like yeah got who you got the hou St and you think sky and he’s always like I’ll just take the he takes the favorite every time but so that’s how it starts but then you get to college and then you just start messing around with

Your buddies and stuff and um I created the sharp selections and like everybody wanted to be sharp when you start gambling I personally don’t even really like the name anymore but I’m already here at this point so it’s just like that is where my the origin came from I

Like you just put sharp and all of a sudden people think you’re sharp so I I literally what that’s literally how that came up came about and um and then I just started posting free picks like posting obnoxiously like a thousand plays a day like threads under threads

That’s how many plays I had and that’s cut back for years ago and now I strictly um uh stick the golf and NHL um I don’t know what so you don’t because there was a time I’m not mistaken you used to bet on random soccer heavy right I could name the I

Could name this the the bench players on Ecuador soccer like Siri B like I was down I was down bad honestly it was I was anything on TV I was buying subscriptions to watch like the craziest stuff like it was yeah it it was time to

Kind of just pull back you get a little older um and uh yeah and then one thing led to another and I I teamed up dub club and then I just kind of had to focus on a couple Sports you can’t just do it all and I love golf I played all

The time I grew up playing hockey so I mean they’re they’re my two things and that’s kind of what I do now so yep yeah no I I think we’re in the same both with uh with hockey and and golf being our our favorite um Sports I I don’t know if

Hockey’s pass football um for me but um you know it’s definitely close and you know I’m excited for the NHL playoffs even though my Islanders will not U be there you’re a Flyers fan um you know we’re kind of kind of Rivals a little bit but no one gave them any credit this

Year no one said they were going to make the playoffs and even when they were in a playoff in the playoff picture a couple months ago people kept saying they’re G to fall off they’re gonna fall off like how how excited are you um to I

Mean right I mean they’re gonna make the playoffs there’s almost no chance they don’t right yeah I think this still says like 70% and there’s still about 10 games left and there’s still the capitals doing dumb stuff behind our backs and the Sabres they’re actually playing or they’re sorry the Red Wings

They’re actually playing right now so I hope they don’t go overtime for sure they we can’t give any charity points out and um I don’t know they iers shocked me they started looking good there the Sabers were making a run so there’s a lot of teams there honestly

We’re just a few more injuries away we’re just not good we really aren’t but we play pesty Style with the twit terella style and um I want to see playoffs just to see the first round playoff hockey is it’s ecstatic every shot the best there’s nothing better

Slug and beers every shot you’re so nervous it’s just it really can’t compared to many sports so I want to see it it’s good experience for the young kids and hopefully but yeah yeah so who would you play right now if uh if um if the playoffs started today you would

Play the canes right it’s a good question I think you would because kanes are second in the Metro you play second in Metro yeah the playoffs are weird because we’re third you would think you’d play I guess that yeah because the first yeah I guess we’

Play the canes in that case and that would be a blood beath yeah no I wouldn’t I wouldn’t want to go up against the canes um in the first round but we can talk Hoy later the uh the Flyers are playing right now against the Rangers um away always always rooe

Against the Rangers so I’m I’m hoping that uh I’m hoping you guys get it done even though you know it doesn’t really matter what the Rangers do they’re they’re gonna be in the playoffs and they’re probably gonna go uh go decently far but valpar Championship last week

Peter Mady is your winner at 300 to1 it’s so funny because obviously Peter mady’s kind of like a a punchline um on the PGA tour as kind of this like this quirky dude who’s like straight up not good at golf but he’s on the policy

Board so like he has some he’s known a lot just because of you know he always gets interviewed and you know he obviously represents kind of the lower class players on the PJ tour and he goes out and he wins the valpar championship at 300 to1 and it’s like this must have

Been completely out of left field like how the hell did Peter Mady you know win he was actually playing pretty well like it’s actually insane how well he was playing to be 300 to1 I think he finished top 15 at Pebble Beach which he got a sponsors exemption into which

People were upset about and then he finished top 10 at the Honda and then he made the cut at the players and had a really bad Sunday to finish like towards the back of the pack but I know the course fit and like his past results

Made no sense there but like for a guy 300 to1 like he really wasn’t in that bad of a form yeah I mean I don’t know I’ll just say this for some reason like Peter Mady first of all he never gets any television time until he’s on the 18th

Screen on the 72 hole I mean he obviously did he got television time but I anytime I pick Peter Mady I always thought he was like some 60 45 50 year old Stuart sink level how old is Peter monal anyway do you know he’s probably

Like 30 like low yeah I think he’s like 32 probably me maybe it’s the color ball maybe it’s the I don’t know bucket hat I don’t know what it is although bucket Hat’s kind of like a younger kid thing but although the guys on tour are older

Like Damon they wear bucket hats but it’s like I don’t know for some reason Peter monani just always sound like an old man to me I don’t know too much about him um I didn’t honestly know he was on the policy board but maybe that’s how he got his little his little drop

There and yeah no I I think the the drop was definitely um it it definitely didn’t look great I mean me personally like every single PGA Tour player takes that drop and that’s just kind of the rules and it was fortunate and he was super gracious about it like I

Personally like don’t have massive issue with it like you know I think you shouldn’t be able to change you know rough to fringer or whatever but at the end of the day it’s just the rules of the PGA Tour and every single person would have taken that drop so it’s just

Kind of like whatever to me but honestly that’s shoty hit on 17 was unbelievable like it was actually one of the shots of the year and of all the people you would think you need to make a birdie don’t need to but like make a birdie on a 200

Yard par three to win a golf tournament like Peter M Na’s bottom of the list absolute bottom of the list yeah so like that whole tournament for me like I said I only watched some of it so I had JT as my like big guy at the top of the board

And after the 79 on Saturday I thought I wasn’t going to watch Sunday at all until I heard like I you pull up the app and you check and I’m like oh there could be a playoff everyone l a playoff so I started tuning in and um I don’t

Speak I don’t even know what happened with Justin Thomas I heard he lost did he L million putting is that what happened yeah he missed like he like didn’t make a putt over two feet all around like he could not make anything like he fully had the

Ys but anyway watching like the how it ended and all it’s like it’s amazing so camong on 18 it was 18 right he pulls it left deep yeah any how do these guys always get a window I feel like it’s crazy it’s other than JT when he try to make the

Try to make the FedEx playoffs last year on the 80 on the seven 72 hole and he had to do that tire Woods ass curve around the trees I feel like most of the time these guys have these perfect windows I mean you have to pull the shot

Off that part’s amazing but the fact people don’t talk about not that I guess it would have mattered in hindsight but his lag putt after he hit that great shot yeah he left it like 12 12 feet short cam young he made so many putts in

That final round that I never would have expected him to make like he actually puted pretty well um that final round and that’s obviously always been his biggest thing that kept saying on the broadcast I was like actually getting mad how much that every time they saw

Like this is what’s been holding Camy young back like C putt he actually putted really well like there wasn’t a lot of putts that he should have made that he missed like there really wasn’t until the second he second hole um when he had that you know just terrible I

Mean it was a tough putt it’s not like a putt you just get up and down every single time but he’s got some issues like I don’t particularly know what it is and it’s I think it’s different than a lot of different guys like I think obviously he

Has like he has more runner-ups than anyone on the PJ tour without a win ever like that’s Tommy Fleetwood that’s Alex nornor like he’s been on the tour for like three years like the sheer amount of runner up finishes he’s had without a win that amount of time is crazy to me

And I’m not obviously he’ll win but I don’t know I I think it definitely might take some time I don’t think that like this has to be a negative in in his mind yeah I’ll just say selfishly I was happy for like two three straight weeks like

All through Florida swing I’m back in Keith Mitchell I’m back in cam young like I’m like it’s I’m gonna get ahead of the curve and I finally like said I’m done I’m just not taking one of these guys and they’re both just up top and yeah that’s the worst the worst but I

Didn’t have him this that week so I was like selfishly I was relieved because now I can still get my opportunity to hop on camong with everybody when he finally gets his first he’s gonna get his first what like do you think he wins on the PGA tour this

Year I do I do I actually do I think yeah I I think that was like at the end of the day the three put didn’t matter like it it truly didn’t matter Pete Mady birdied 17 and he made a comfy par and 18 like you know it it doesn’t he didn’t

Blow the tournament with that one putt um you know he still wouldn’t have gotten in the playoff and I don’t know if he knew that but still like it it wasn’t that egregious but the putter has been actually pretty good this year like I don’t you know I I do think he wins

This year but I I think honestly it could be soon because the Putter’s been good like it he hasn’t been just bleeding Strokes on the green he’s been able to like gain two or three Strokes like every single week like he still has his other issues but I really do think

That that’s the biggest thing holding it back it’s not like a Scotty level holding it back but there’s definitely I’ll just add to it I don’t know if it’s a good or a bad thing but doesn’t he have like a demeanor of like literally nothing I feel like he never shows

Emotion and I don’t know if that you could say that’s a good thing he obviously cares he would have went to live I mean he still could I guess but I don’t think he will I don’t think he will at this point but anyway like I think he just doesn’t show enough

Emotion so that could be a good thing and I think he’ll get through and he’ll get he’ll get across the Finish Line at some point so yeah his demeanor on the course definitely isn’t isn’t great he does not seem like a positive person yeah he looks like Angry he looks like

Angry but the different type of angry like kind of just like disappointed while you have like Max hom looks confused on the course and then you have other guys like wiam Clark used to get he still gets really angry um there’s just people that show different emotions

That’s just how the game is but cam young always baffles me like he doesn’t show really anything yeah no I I I I’m curious as to what his celebration will be like when he finally wins like I I don’t know if he’ll just do like a

Laidback chill thing or um if he’s gonna go crazy because he he really has some of the worst demeanor um on the PJ tour but just kind of holistically like this PGA Tour season almost everyone who’s won a non-elevated event was like fighting to get in the elevated event it’s like

Chris Kirk he was in him but again he’s kind of a fringe guy he he wasn’t locked up for anything Grayson Murray he just got his card he wasn’t in the elevated events um Nick Dunlap he was an amateur he obviously wasn’t in anything um who

Else um Pavone he just got his card Jake knap he just got his card like these guys seem really motivated um at least the guys just coming Peter Mady obviously not like these guys seem super motivated coming out that like tour card is in Jeopardy and they’re not in these big events like

I I really think it’s correlated I I really think that these guys um that are not in the elevated events are it’s not a coincidence that they’re winning all of the events that they need to get into it whereas guys like cam young that are already in it or

You know Sam Burns or whoever um you know they’re all in it you know obviously they want to win on the PGA tour but it just seems like at this point it can’t be a coincidence yeah I was just going to say before you ended with that point I was like to piggyback

I was going to say maybe I never thought about it that way maybe these guys are kind of content and they for a lot of some of these elevated events it’s like within 10 of the lead or no cut at all so like you really just got to be pretty

Bad to not make it in there so like they’re gonna get a a heavy paycheck and maybe you just want to Peak around the majors I mean that’s what everyone wants to do so maybe they don’t have like that motivation maybe elevated events have kind of ruined ruined the tour everyone’s like

Equipment’s now more equal the coures the setups are easier why why are these guys winning maybe it’s just about the motivation the motivation is not necessarily there I mean these guys are getting they’re getting what they want now they still want more money obviously but I don’t know that’s a good that’s a

Good point yeah and like the people who have won the elevated events are like major Champion Elite golfers like wiam Clark decky and Scotty and Chris Kirk you know these are these are guys that are excellent at golf I mean I think Chris Kirk’s kind of been of long shot

But he still has like seven PGA Tour wins um so it’s just really interesting how this this season’s played out and in my opinion there’s really only been like three or four winners that like kind of fit the mold of how we normally you know what What winners we expect um not that

Favorites can’t win but kind of what the general public likes to bet they like to bet good golfers that are like 20 to 20 to one to like 100 to one you know obviously more close to to 60 to one and you know decky wendam Nick Taylor was a

Long shot but like you could have been on him and Scotty is his two favorite like those are the really the only winners you could look back and be like damn like I really could have been on him like it wasn’t a crazy long shot it wasn’t a favorite you know they were

Good golfers on good courses and normally like those are the where the vast majority of winners come from on the PGA Tours kind of you know 20 to 100 to one good players on good course fits at good numbers and like it just really hasn’t happened this year like has that

Kind of impacted your betting or thoughts or anything oh yeah I would like we’ll get into it soon but I’ve been hammering long shots I’ve been more open to them I would say in the years’s past I didn’t get above a 100 not even close to 8090

At times I in the last year and a half I’ve been lucky enough to I’ve hit 26 winners and I hit I hit hii actually at 90 to one this year so other than that though I have I I tried like one live tour and I hit the Neiman the first nean

Win before he went on his his rant but um it’s been harder obviously it’s been harder for everybody and now I catch myself following I’m following the steam if you will I put Novak on my card every week foreshadow I have him again but it’s like I just I’m chasing these 120s

130s 140s and it’s not just because I think more I don’t know I think it’s open my eyes that something’s weird right now on the tour and I’m just gonna kind of keep riding it so yeah I think like it’s one I think it’s it’s totally

Fair to be like I want to bet more long shots but those are hard obviously like it’s harder to pick the right ones like Pete Mady winning at 300 to one like it’s so different than you know picking a like cam champ this week or like Andrew Novak this week or mark

Hovert this week like those kind of guys aren’t really even winning so it’s just been a tough year and I’ve lowered my exposure um to the PGA Tour like usually bet to win like 35 to four grand I’m just not doing that anymore because one it’s a waste of money obviously when you

Win it’s amazing but like just the way it’s played out it’s just I I can’t get myself like that worked up and like bet that much every week it’s just not worth it to me so I was obviously mad at the Players because I thought I was gonna

Hit a winner but I I’ve lowered you know my exposure like it’s just to me it’s not worth investing that much every week with the way the these events have gone yeah I’ve added a few new things I’m I I’m big into betting round matchups and um I’ve been tracking them for four

Years and I noticed like my first round bets are like negative 5060 units and then it’s like everything else is amazing because you look at these first round leaderboards and it’s always like who who’s in first place so like I’ve learned at least call back on that but

Even more so I’ve now added actually full turning matchups I never did that till this year I started two weeks ago and now I’m three and0 on them it’s small sample but I’m trying two more again this week and it’s just it’s just attacking guys who I like but that you

Can’t I can’t account for these mades that are just GNA come out of nowhere but I can get my guy who can beat someone who I think is not going to do good that week you could gave me 75 golfers last week 75 picks I don’t think

I would have landed Mady in one of them yeah I think you know if I if if I dove into it sure but like off the top no like there’s just no way you ever would have picked Pete Mady like I really just it’s tough for me to do placements and

And matchups and stuff it’s just to me if I want to about a couple hundred dollars on the event I wanted to be on outrights to add on that to try and make up for it when I could easily just you know go like do terrible in that because

Those aren’t guarantees or anything that’s just hard for me to to kind of get behind and maybe I should maybe I should be more time like It’s just tough because I’m willing to have a week where I have no One In Contention or no one

Play well and then you know I would have got wiped if I bet them all positional and then obviously there’s week like the players where I have three guys finish top five like yeah it would have been amazing but there’s also all these weeks where I just don’t have anyone remotely

In the mix and it you know it makes it a bit tougher I feel like I landed like I said hit hit Dei but other than that I really I snipped some top 10 but I feel like you’ve been kind of knocking on the door players obviously sticks out but I

Feel like you’ve been knocking the door a lot know I’ve had like a bunch of guys like finish second like early in the year it’s just like you kind of need to break your way and just like nothing’s broken my way um this year so it’s definitely been frustrating but

Like at the end of the day it just like it just is what it is like it’s I’m not you can’t expect to win every week like I need a winner like definitely could but you know I’m not gambling money I can’t lose and I’m just hoping that one

Of these days like one of these tourn you know I actually picked the winner and they cross Finish Line um on Sunday but let’s talk about Houston you know I think the course you know I I you know I don’t normally do this but I I

Was watching Tony Fen now when he they have like the every shot he hit when he won in 2022 this is got to be one of the places where you rip driver the most out of anywhere on tour like this place is pretty wide open off the tea and it’s

Super long like all the power fours are super super long like a 7,400 yard par 70 like that’s major championship length all the a lot of these par fives are like over 460 close to 500 yards and you’re just ripping driver every single hole so I think it’s a super driver

Heavy course I want guys that are long off the te versus you know other weeks and I don’t really care that much about accuracy and honestly the winners here you know I didn’t really see that initially but you know some people pointed it out to me the winners here

Have gained a ton putting like a lot of the leaderboard has been guys gaining five six seven strokes putting you know I think that has to do with kind of the ease of the greens how big they are and you know kind of the scoring nature of the course so I’m kind

Of overall holistically you know I’m not a huge you know course fed model blah blah blah that stuff but I definitely love driver putter this week like that kind of skill set um you know I’m not like you know Jes to bet Tom hogi or anything but I definitely want guys that

Are super long and that can Spike with the putter like that’s kind of what I’m looking for uh but I do think the scoring you know Vegas you know G OD Jeff Sherman I don’t know if you you know him but he does the over unders

Every week and it’s 14 and a half this week which I think is pretty fair but there’s no wind I would not be surprise if these guys take it a little bit lower than uh expected like I don’t think it’s a difficult conditions course even though the scoring has has been pretty

Low and you know people have won at minus 10 yeah um I guess what I guess I’ll go with your last point I think maybe because of how it used to be in the swing season I maybe I didn’t watch this course enough and I really didn’t know

About this Beast being the fourth or fifth toughest all year they play yeah maybe it has to be because it’s like the November and like I tune into some some of the games at that point but you’re into football at this point like there’s

A lot of things going on that I just I’m not tuning into the Houston open in November so I guess I wish I W I guess I should have looked into more of like the videos that you looked at but I read all about it and like you said I do I I

Agree with you it should driver heavy like they there’s minimal bunkers there’s like no water um they knock down more trees I read so that just tells me pretty wide Fairways so yeah everyone just gonna rip driver and I’m pretty sure he can get away with almost everything now because they even they

Shorten the rough from what I read as well yeah I mean these guys are going to be pulling driver all the time so I agree with you there um I’m huge into T green every single week it sounds like it’s like cheat coats that but if you

Look at every time someone wins the previous tournaments they’re always that’s usually within our top stats they’re leading almost everybody in Tito green look at Scotty Sheffer like better than everyone in TD green by like 1.6 strokes but like TD green is everything and then because that kind of brings in

All the chipping aspects and then I also I and putting for for me I did a lot of lag putting because I see they have like seven foot greens or something like that um and like different quadrants so you’re going to have to and I know the greens are regulation are really low

Here so I believe I mean a lot of that probably du to wind as well and coming in from 200 yards yeah so guys are gonna be able guys are going be able to chip or putt from off these runoffs and I think you’re going to just be able to

Have to have good approach putting lag putting so I put a lot of that into I don’t do models like you either I feel like you and I are very similar the way we look at golf um I I I take stats I look at them but I don’t bring in

Spreadsheets I kind of I do a lot of stuff like hand honestly and um it’s worked in the past this year only one winner but we’ll get there and um yeah I mean I I agree I think the over 14 and a half I I have’t I hav’t tagged at 16

Under win so I I I definitely could see that you know I I definitely could see someone winning at 16 17 under like I I I don’t think that you know these guys are just so good and even a 500 yard par f a 500 yard Par Four like

These guys are still hitting like you know eight to pitching wedge in sometimes if if they’re long and and the wins right so you know I I I hope that it it’s pretty difficult but I’m not holding my breath that we’re gonna get like some minus 12 wi or I I just I

Don’t see that um this week I think the most you know important person to obviously talk about is Scotty um after he won Bay Hill um like I just talked a lot of about Scotty he’s not going to win the players he’s not going to gain pun

Like he missed a five-footer on the first hole like I like quot tweeted it and like laughed at it and he literally ruined my life like he literally ruined my life and he stopped me from having like a three-way playoff between all my bets and obviously you know I I was

Wrong I mean it was kind of a joke when I was and like he never won the no one’s ever won the Players back to back and blah blah blah all this now I’m fully like he’s probably gonna win this week like Scotty should win this week he

Probably will win this week I am firmly in that camp versus you know he can’t win three times in a row it hasn’t really been done a lot he’s tuning up for the Masters like this isn’t the you know the greatest course fit I do not subscribe that at all every time this

Guy tees it up if it’s not the AMX I’m expecting him to win and you know obviously I’m not saying bet him at you know two and a half to one but if there’s just this is a great it’s not the greatest course in the world for him

But it’s a good course for him it’s not you know the AMX or The Travelers championship and you know he just goes on these runs where he just wins multiple times and this field is just terrible it’s just not good at all past five guys and I just my thing

Is I just don’t see a world in which he’s not T5 or better going into the final round because he could just shoot minus four here every single round in his sleep and if he’s you know in the final group with Stephen joerger and like you know I don’t know

Norin and Keith Mitchell like I I yeah I take Scotty there like there’s only one person in this field that I truly trust like has big enough balls to actually beat him and is actually close to this level and that’s wiam Clark but I’m just I’m fully expecting Scotty to

Win this week like I I just I just don’t see it any other way yeah so I mean obviously I agree that he has a very good chance to win the way I try to look at it do you think he wins this 26% of the time 25% of the

Time yeah so if this tournament is played a 100 times yeah yes more I think more like genuinely if you play this tournament a 100 times he wins 25 times it’s like not even a question yeah and then so then the other thing is like so he wins this week he

Goes and he takes off next week obviously you would think and then he goes to the Masters is’s he gonna win four times in a row I mean I personally think like in my mind I think it it doesn’t actually make any sense but I personally think he has like I

Would be more surprised if he didn’t win The Masters in this week like I truly don’t know how he loses Augusta I really don’t know how he loses at Augusta in two weeks this week you know it might be a little bit of a let down he might be

Focused on that but and yeah I like he won four times two years ago when he was less accomplished not number one player in the world in a two- Monon span I don’t see why he couldn’t do it again yeah so I’ll say just a couple things so

To try to back Scotty won’t win this week is like well I guess do you think anything’s up with this neck you think he’s good to go I think I mean he he won with you know the worst neck he’s had so I don’t think the neck is an issue yeah

And if but if anything were to flare up I don’t think he would risk austa so but I don’t I don’t see him having issues he just seems even been killed by everything he’ll be fine could to go but that’s one way you can try to talk

Yourself into not taking him um on the other side he’s like what four to one to win The Masters so like 3 to one you can’t really get 27 two2 no I think he’s like he’s not even three to one yeah best odds plus 27 he’s like 250

Everywhere else that’s kind so maybe that is value compared to 4 to one the Masters against good players no it’s it’s like that just shows how crazy his Masters price is he’s four and a half to one to win the Masters like and I think it’s fair because if he you know

Even at the Players like he was super low like if you put this guy at 5 six 701 books would get killed he’s their highest exposure every single week like even at you know the AMX or whatever like you know not me and you but you know the

General Public’s like yeah why would not and I not bet Scotty you know to win this tournament so they have to price him this low because people are just gon to hammer him because it it’s truly he just is so much better than everyone in this field he’s so much better than

Windam and everyone else he’s just Miles and Miles better than and understand it’s golf Anything Can Happen week to week but after what he did at the Players like I just you can just never doubt the guy and I yeah I guess the only thing other thing I’ll say

Is so there’s a couple things like we we said in the beginning of this how we think it might play like firmer we thought we would would play firmer so in that case um other guys have a chance to get out there but there’s some people that say there’s rough won’t won’t allow

The ball to roll as much so that brings back accuracy again so you can say that favors Scotty but at the same time I’m hearing chipping is easier I think we both agree Scotty is the best Tripper on tour espe tight lies especially but if they’re making this over seed and it’s

Supposed to be easier that allows other guys I think to have more of a chance this week so that’s yeah I I I totally understand and I honestly do think the fairways are so wide here that the fact that he’s the greatest driver in the world among other things you know helps

Him less um so I I understand that and the fact that the winners here have gain a ton putting I subscribe to all that but I’m just not going to be like no he’s not gonna win three in a row like I’m just after what he’s done like

I just have no reason to doubt him so I you can’t parlay it but and the odds wouldn’t even be good but like parlay this week to win The Masters I just don’t hate it I just I could see him just going on a run again but I bet wam

Clark at 14 to1 on bookmaker he’s like 12 to1 I like the 14 you know 12 kind of whatever but you know I was on about the players you know for me you know you know talking about this event I really want guys that can just

Rip driver and are super long and really want good Putters that can Spike six or seven that’s wiam Clark to me there’s no one in the field that fits that better than wiam Clark to me and he is the only person that I you know I think he’s

Really wants to beat Scotty and I think that he he’s motivated by this week do am I concerned about a let down of back-to-back runnerup finishes he’s in Colorado his hometown at the Abs game you know getting up like that is my biggest concern that it’s a natural let down spot

But just if the course fit for me it’s too much to overlook and I trust him down the stretch on Sunday so you know that’s just kind of an easy um bet for me and I don’t really like anyone else so I I thought wind Clark at 14 was a

Good bet yeah I actually had Windom Clark I make my initial list and then um I just I wanted a couple other guys little little bit past him so I ended up just taking him off and honestly I just told myself like you got to tell yourself certain things to get you off

Certain people people and I just kind of said what you said there I think that second that second that the players um and the travel and the celebrating he’s doing I’m just telling by something some reason but I will say I think they say this course favors a fade if I’m if I

Heard that correct and I mean he has a slice at times but uh yeah I have no issues with Clark honestly he was on my car but I took him off um like last second and so who did did you bet up so my main guy this week my one and

Done is gonna be theala um the guy is just becoming I think the issue with him is he used to be he’s kind of like him and spe like switch bodies in the sense of where now spe is like so I mean he always was inconsistent but fal’s issue was you

Didn’t know what you were getting from him and now I feel like he’s actually putting together maybe more time on tour he’s getting more consistent so I like that aspect you want to talk about Spike Putters this guy goes this guy goes low um and I think he’s an absolute genius

With with the short game he gets around um he he got 22nd here last year and I think on Sunday he cared a 64 um which was two strokes better than anyone else so um not that I’m saying a year later you bring momentum but it’s just the

Fact that he went low on this course um different time obviously but like November but uh it wasn’t that long ago and I just think he’s playing well and I think a course like this is supposed to be just like kind of I think it’s all about scrambling here I keep reading it

I’m gonna believe it um and that’s I think theala is perfect fit for this and that no I I I think it’s a good course fit too because I think the fairways are pretty wide open and that’s where it could get a little wonky and he’s you

Know a guy that could Spike with the Putter and Spike around the grin so I like to play just I just not for me well I guess I should say the odds I got 22 22 one yeah he’s like 18 now I think he’s like 21 on bookmaker so I could get

There I thought this was always a great spot for will Z just like Texas difficult event long course I don’t know I just don’t feel it with z um and I Z’s not a bomber he’s just not like I don’t know what you know metric you want to

Look at but he’s really been more accurate like he’s been kind of killing it with accuracy off the te more like 315 like he’s not you know just absolutely nuking the ball off the te like crazy numbers he’s really more accurate and I don’t trust him enough to

Spike with the putter to win here and I just don’t love it I I just don’t love it withal I thought it was a spot I wanted to bet him but I haven’t been on him all year and I just not not for me this week but my think I don’t really

Like anyone else like day feno I’m just out on SEIU I think you know the ball striking has been great but I just I don’t like him on you know bomber tracks like I like him on short positional courses I I know you bet him but that that’s my thing with with sea

This week yeah so I mean I’ll just say I agree with Z something just didn’t feel right and I went back and looked and he um it’s not awful I mean but the last two weeks he’s losing around the green um a couple mini mini green bars the

Year the weeks before but before that again like losing up to like one one and a half Strokes around the green um I think for me it’s just constant like I don’t think this is going to be a 10 under win I like zot tus in single

Digits I like zot Tes in Majors I like Z tourus and I I just don’t get that vibe from this this week and I’m not I’m not impressed with his chipping I’m leaning on that sword it’s going to be a chip Fest scrambling so I don’t I don’t like

What I’m seeing right now from him and I just like him at a tougher like tougher track they say they say it’s a tough track but I don’t know so why’ you bet seu so seu I mean he was like fifth I saw on TAA green 12th and greens of

Regulation I mean there shouldn’t be hard to hit that many greens although they it is far and they say they missed a lot but they’re huge and he also is just hasn’t lost Strokes off the te I think in I think he lost Str Strokes off

The tea I think once in like a year year and a half the guy absolutely just Stripes it down the middle um and he actually look so weird so he’s a terrible putter he actually had a good week last week but he’s so high up in

Lag putting so I guess he’s just he’s one of those guys like zorus last year before he figured it out if he figured it out a fenale these guys who can lag it but then they get to two three feet and they just themselves essentially um so I mean part of it is

Just he just is greatest scrambling too so I again I stuck I stuck to my guns here it’s just guys who can scramble guys who are great off the te and uh essentially that’s where I landed with it um I got 30 to one on him it’s I just

Like what I’m seeing honestly and he’s A’s he’s showing you can win I just got I gotta bet people that can win I can’t be betting yeah I agree about suu just kind of being able to win and pop up um I just I don’t know if this long of a

Course is is is right for him norin at 35 to1 like no I’m just never betting norin at 35 to1 the guys never won on the PGA tour like it’s not even a situation of if he beats me beats me like there’s no way way that Alex soran

Wins it at 35 to1 I think it’s a good spot for him but no I’m just I’m not doing that Mitchell I like I mean you know I’m not gonna you know fault the guy for having a bad Sunday round I don’t particularly think of Keith

Mitchell as like a loser or someone that can’t close even though you know we only the has one PGA Tour win I just don’t think he’s put himself in the mix enough um but I think this is a pretty good course for him I just again worry about

The putter I don’t know if he could gain a ton um putting but I like jger 50 to one um you know I think in some way or another I’m going to bet him I really don’t know what I’m doing with my card I’ve only

Bet um I’ve only bet wam Clark and cam champ without Scotty um like that’s all I really have so far but I I do like Ys I I think that um you know he definitely you know he might have peaked you know with the two with the back-to-back

Fourth place finishes but this is just a course I like him on you know I don’t think it’s going to be super difficult but I like him on more difficult tracks I like him on driver heavy tracks he played well at Mexico and Tori to places where you just rip driver everywhere um

I just think it’s kind of a good course fit at 50 to one uh I think he’s a guy that could could level up this year so I like Jags at at 50 yeah I mean I just I feel like Jagger might be a poor man’s cam young they’re

Kind of I don’t know why they the German Camy Young they kind of just like they they great off the te and then uh they’re so weird with the putter they lose one and a half or they gain one and a half so again Spike going back to what

You like Jagger has shown he can Spike both ways so I’ll take my chances um I do I don’t mind guys missing cut in Florida I mean there’s just a couple shots and all of a sudden you’re plus six and you just miss it certain guys don’t like Florida it clearly it looked

Like Jagger didn’t like Florida I like those two t3s and then Florida swing happened to him um he just gonna he’s great on I saw on long long difficult courses he’s good on scrambling tight lives um he’s played well here in the past he’s playing well I think again

Florest swings aren’t for everybody so yeah and his first te timeout first round leader mortal like I’m not gonna I’m not gonna jinx it I’m not GNA tweet about it Jagger first round leader if you’re not betting him and you bet first round leader just like find something

Else to do like jger first T timeout loser can’t win but he’s good course fit Jagger first round leader is is easy you have to run is he first one out I didn’t know that first one out geez he’s not alone right like Dunlap was oh no he’s not alone

He’s in he’s in a normal normal thre but I love that um Tom hogi 51 maybe the worst bet I’ve ever seen in my entire life um truly no chance like absolutely no chance this week Tom hogi he he’s he’s a fate of the week I’ll Target him

In matchups not that I bet that booster 55 like it’s just just this what turns me off about this field so much it’s like this 50 to1 range is terrible absolutely awful like none of these guy Keith Mitchell is the only fair number every other number is awful for

The talent of guys these and I understand it’s the field and whatever but when you have a guy two and a half to one I’m just not getting hyped to bet basser at 55 I know you bet nap and kittama I like both of those they both

Make sense nap I don’t think can win again Kurt Kurt I I could see Kurt I understand why Kurt’s popular yeah Kurt I saw he’s about he’s like six in this field and from 200 plus um I love that and I love that he shown ability again another complete Spike of the putter

Great Scrambler um I don’t know like you said with the nap thing I think I’m I’m probably just uh taking a bait there’s a few of the guys honestly the rest of my card is taking a bait they’re really not there’s not really any Rhyme or Reason

For some of them but um honestly is that’s what happens this year on the tour you just kind of just take guys who don’t make sense and then uh I guess you’ll get the win so that’s how we’re doing this yeah I uh

And you bet uh KH Le 75 to one he’s been playing well I don’t hate it he’s won in Texas twice exactly he’s a Valero King he’s he’s the Texas he’s not TPC but it’s uh it’s Municipal and it’s close enough it should feel like home for him um

Again his approach has been awful like losing two to three Strokes at times but the guy just absolute a wizard around the greens um I’m hoping his momentum from last week how he ended should kind of propel him forward again another winner couple times guys I just there’s

Kind of a thing a theme on my card for the most part is H guys who can win and then guys who can I kind of agree with you the spike putting so that’s just how we’re going to take it this week yeah I don’t hate the uh the KH F sh

I just it’s again I just went like I’m just not getting excited to any bet any of these guys I don’t think any of them could win I’ve never had this year you know kind of a longer shot sweat like it’s just really tough for him to be

Like okay I’m gonna bet like wind them in a bunch of bombs like they’re they’re not gonna win they’re just not gonna win like I just it’s either gonna be some random dude or Scotty or hopefully win them it It’s just tough this week um but I really do like cam

Champ like in all seriousness I think cam champ is a fantastic play um he fits exactly what I want at this course of extremely long off fatig um he’s literally one of the longest guys in the entire tour um and Spike with the putter gained 7.9 at vpar gained 5.2 at the Mexico

Open driver putter give me a chance on cam champ this week like that’s it for me there’s not really much more to say it’s cam champ he probably will miss the cut but at 150 to1 a 100 to one without the Scotty Market I you know I

Feel like he’s trending a little bit and um I think I’m you know how you were talking about you you kind of give guys passes once they get out of Florida maybe Novak was just a Florida guy I don’t know yeah I mean so cam champ the only

Like so my only concern is obviously his his irons his are absolute s so yes not going to go so he’s going to be chipping all the time and it’s already hard to chip I guess maybe the overseed might help him this time but I don’t think he

Can chip well so you better hope it’s a spike week is all I’ll say but I’m totally I’m totally cool with the whole like off the T the guy another what’s two-time winner again we these guys who won twice like 90 years ago thinking that’s kind of we’re riding the P the

Monina theme we’re riding these guys the Resurgence on tour that’s the theme so um I don’t hate any of that Novak you’re probably right I’m just going to take it to the wheels fall off um you can’t you can’t knock his ball striking yeah and he actually played well last week he did

He’s like top 20 in every stat I look at this week he just pops probably because how good he’s been playing so it’s little little misleading but I don’t know man he’s 150 I got you’re not wrong I mean miscut players throw it out other

Than that 5.2 5.4 1.8 5.1 on approach um that’s you know that’s great for the putter I I struggle with but I’m kind of with you um I might just because I I I bet him um at Mexico and I bet him at at

Honda might have to uh to go back to him yeah Andy noes as you call him all your yeah Andy noes he follows me on Twitter um like he’s a ball stking bastard what about hubs speaking of following on Twitter you like you don’t have any love

For hubs this week hubs first round leader for sure like not even a question hubard first round leader can he win no he can’t win he’s not gonna win um but the irons have been hot you know he he’s been 8.3 on Approach at the Players lost six point 6.4 putting

You know I don’t know how far Spike putting week can get you you know you know he it’s actually crazy his sine again eight point 8.4 um on Approach at the farmers 8.3 at The Players um and then the other results lost 0.2 on Approach at the

Players but gained 4.8 putting lost five um on Approach at Honda gained putting so he just can’t seem to match it up I think I’m in like if I’m just betting a bunch of long shots yeah it give me Mark pepper sure yeah probably not for another time

But like what is do you do you have a first- round leader philosophy that’s the one market I’ve never touched the first round leader philosophy is basically losers that can’t win but are like good course fits that I think could just go super low in the first round like that’s

Like holistically what it is it’s guys that are good course fits that you might like for a top 20 or like a top 10 or in a matchup and they might be going out early and you just bet a first round leader granted this year thues was first

Round leader at I had thues outright at at Toc he was first round leader I didn’t have him kentley the one first round leader I hit this year was a guy I been outright and then Xander and Windham were both first round leader at the players didn’t bet either of them um

In that market but I had him out right so actually my first round leader card has been good but you know that’s not it’s not as fun I’m not just gonna say here’s my out card here’s my first round leader card I want to have two separate

Ones but eventually it will it will come back because I’ve obviously hit out first round leaders that were just losers that didn’t think it’d win that were good course fits but yeah that that’s basically it and then you hit first round leaders for like the 2022

Tournament that hits in 2024 and you can highlight it right yes yes like Trav that Keegan oh my God and then and then backtack weeks at the US Open um at the US Open then The Travelers at the US Open I had Windam Clark first round leader he wins wasn’t first round leader

Um then at The Travelers I had Keegan first round leader he should have been first round leader and then wins so it’s tough to tie down you know it it is tough to die down the first round leader Market you’re just never GNA get it right um but yeah basically losers that

Can’t win that go out early just better a first round later yeah I’ll leave that market to you it’s too much for me um but I guess for the my last guy on the card is crazy car youan I’m totally riding the five Strokes around the green

Chipping in three times on Sunday live maybe he just chips in every time on Thursday Friday Saturday and Sunday too so um at 150 to one with Carl you on I think he had like a he had he played pretty well here one year uh 30 T t35

Sure whatever um terrible putter but maybe this is the week he finally gained last week and uh so yeah that rounds up my card theal SIU Jer Kitty Yama Nap K Novak nean so it’s all to win about six times your risk so yeah no that’s a good

You you get had a b um outrights I kind of like that six to to 7x I honestly think I’m going to go Windom and a bunch of bombs like I just I don’t I don’t love the mid Market this week I think it’s gonna be Windam joerger and then a

Bunch of guys 100 to one that will not win like just will not win um and then we’ll move on to Valera Which Scott is not playing in it we have a shot and uh Masters burner likees jger I’m in Al go Jagger is your winner this week uh sure

Are we down we both have him yep the J yeah I’m sure you know he went to college in Chattanooga which is basically Texas um like he’s he’s basically right there and you know I’m fine I’m fine with that um but yeah odds board this week Scotty’s probably

Gonna win if not Windam wins if not Jagger wins that that’s kind of how I how I feel about this week yeah and I guess the last thing I’ll say is for me is I thrw a little two un boy prop on a top sued with I I I wanted some I wanted

Some exposure to Alex noren he’s not winning but when I looked at all these dudes from Sweden are just awful I think I mean buor buor is nuts if you look at buor Stats he gains like eight putting every round and still can’t come inside

The top 50 so I don’t know what he does with everything else Vincent Norman I loved him I hit him on his first win actually so he has a special place in my heart but he’s not playing well and then norlander they’re just all whatever so

I’m taking nor in there at plus 106 to beat them to beat all this two unit Banger two unit Banger all right um will tail I’m down to tail also my one NHL play tonight cash in the second Devil’s Leafs over that was an easy one did you

Have that I did have that actually yeah that was an easy play that was just you look and flyers are up 2-1 oh let’s go and then what else do you have on the NHL slate tonight you got a late night play for me it has to hit though yeah

Take the star sharks over six and a half Stars sharks over yep it’s gonna be a barn burner wake up to a winner wake up to a winner put the phone away wake up to a winner okay I’m I’m holding you to that but there is some good NHL um tonight who is

Your your Stanley Cup pick um I took Florida at 8 to one about four three weeks ago um they proceeded to lose about five in a row after that um but they’re back on track somewhat I think they’re just they’re depth they’re better than they were last year eight to

One I took them um I had a couple other good ones uh I hit the I’m gonna hit H duck vzna like plus 400 so that was cool I I bet Toto to be coaches the year at like plus 900 that’s not happening but why not he should win though he

Absolutely should win a coach the the refs everyone hates some he gets kicked out all the time so uh yeah I don’t know but yeah take the Stars I also had the coyotes at minus 147 but it’s like juice out the 16 I’m not gonna give any yeah

No my my boy said parles stars with yotes and Ray yeah I had the Stars I got up to like 165 I got 147 so I’m not g to give that out and act like take 165 it’s a little juicy but yeah I’m I’m I’m happy about Devil’s

Leaves that was that was a mortgage play um doesn’t quite cover me for the uh the golf week but I put a decent amount um on it but I appreciate you coming on Ryan it was a good pod um I wish you the best of luck in your in your golf and

And hockey um in De and um hopefully you guys beat the Rangers tonight yeah I’ll just say I appreciate you having me on and it was just funny like four years ago you were in my DMs like who do you like in hockey tonight who you like on

Your golf stacks and now you’re the Big Show on Twitter I’m always seeing me from you getting retweeted by everybody so I’m just uh it’s nice to see how you kind of grown in this content world and keep doing your thing yeah know I I I appreciate it and um next week Valera

Open Steve shermer’s coming on and uh I’m looking forward to and then smash’s week and then golf season really uh really picks up so I’m excited for the next couple weeks uh we’ll see everyone shout out um the The Tib fans and um hope everyone has a good night y let’s go Jagger