Houston Open | Does Scottie win again?

Malnati wins the Valspar. Cam Young and Xander lose again. Adam and Matt unpack what took place in Tampa, and then consider the likelihood of a Scottie three peat.

Odds: golf.vincerix.com
Content: vincerix.com

Timestamps

00:00 Valspar recap
07:30 Cam Young
11:15 Mac Hughes
13:10 Xander
15:50 More Valspar guys
21:30 Houston keys
24:00 Scottie
26:15 Wyndy
28:15 Range of despair
32:45 Down the board
38:20 Random Euro of the Week
41:10 JT because we forgot to talk about him earlier
42:40 Cam’s

All right we are back for the Houston open Matt Ganan Jers is with me as always Jers I I texted you yesterday you said what time are we doing the Pod I said I think I’m out on doing the Pod this week the thought of talking about

Peter malady winning a tournament a 3 to1 Scotty two to1 Scotty at the Houston open I was a little down but I woke up this morning as always started writing the course preview and I’ve got takes I’m fired up I’m ready to go now how are

You doing yeah I mean week in week out it’s either great or extremely deflating being a being a full-time golf better like we are but and I was feeling it too I was a little bit deflated after the valpar both had guys in the mix and we

Saw how it ended and then we wake up to the odds it’s like ah Scotty Sheffer is going to be a massive favorite what’s going to happen here is he’s going to run away with it but yeah you work through it and you find your way to stay

Up and and talk offl and I’m happy to be here and at the end of the day we’ve started to build a little bit of a uh loyal following people who like the Pod so shout out to you obviously want to want to have some content for you on on

A Monday Tuesday uh and as I’ve had to say now or get to say since we’re in the Pod game like And subscribe uh we really appreciate that it’s been super helpful to get the Pod out there in front of more people and we appreciate people who

Are tuning in on a week like this because Jero is the valpar we knew it wasn’t the strongest field I guess it was one of the stronger Fields I think you were talking up the the strength of the field we end up getting a Peter malady victory at the Valar you famously

Maybe last year uh describe the tweet that you do when Peter manat is in the mix because it it happens so rarely this tweet doesn’t doesn’t show up often but you do have a great uh Peter monat tweet that usually I honestly think you said that and I just tweeted it like maybe

Stolen Valor but um it’s the tweet that is it’s a s it’s very simple to the mlow is it a good is it a good golf tournament yes no is Peter malady in the mix if he is bad golf tournament if he is not good golf tournament and sadly

For the Valar uh bad golf tournament Peter monat in the mix Peter monat wins the golf tournament but I honestly think you may have said that and I don’t know why I tweeted it but it could have been your tick could be wrong though I don’t

Know and uh I will do a small Vic laap because winners are few and far between this year on the PJ tour uh each week on v.com we right like we said we write up a lot of golfers and and on uh Tuesdays when I’m writing up the picks I’ll kind

Of go through guys that caught my eye who didn’t end up making the card for whatever reason uh I think I said form versus course history for malat because his course history at the BP was terrible but he what he was playing pretty good I said take the form with

Malady uh now that didn’t make me any money maybe some a subscriber maybe had him in their DFS lineup I hope somebody uh out there was able to uh use that bullet point uh for success but the bucket hat the yellow ball uh we saw it in the flesh at uh the

PLAYERS Championship in the practice playing with Willie Z yeah playing with Willie Z out there early on a Wednesday morning uh and then I saw him uh playing with Bo Hustler I think and I can’t remember who the third member might have been Sam Ryder in their group on

Thursday coming off the second green at the Players Bo goes long of the second green there kind of off the back he’s got a got to putt it up uh he gets it up and down walking off the back of the green I mean it was literally me and

Them there was no one else following this group malady goes Bo unbelievable up and down great job man and I was like it was funny because i’ never thought of anything but like um man what a nerd malady is and then I was like people

Talk very highly of him he’s on like the board of directors and I was like damn that was incredibly like supportive and nice thing to do during the tournament so that’s what I thought of as Mady got into the mix this week was that moment

Last week 100% And like we you saw him get that whatever questionable drop drop that’s a whole different podcast he was so like thankful and like this this is a great break I I have to make sure I’m doing this right to the rules official and like we never hear a golfer like

Show emotion in a in a setting like that and it was unbelievable and like all day on the on the coverage and even like Friday Saturday Sunday when he was around the mix he would have a shot here and there and I’d always pick up the mic

Because this man plays out of the pine straw more often than he should and he was like every time like thank you to someone spotting his ball or something I appreciate that thank you thank you thank you like no one is like Peter malady truthly and that’s not a hot take

He’s just a very different guy I don’t have the best feelings about him like he’s just a rando but good guy p i i I’m happy for him it is what it is and like if there’s anyone to win at random I’m kind of happy it’s p monati because he’s

Just great content just great content and I think too it’s like this was a perfect example of something that we talk about we’ve talked about a reasonable amount this year as we try to unpack like the long shots when every week except uh the last when Scotty

Plays and this was a perfect example of the winners this year and and honestly probably not just this year but historically like the people who win the tournament Strokes gain consistency doesn’t mean you’re going to win the tournament and we saw that with a bunch

Of guys and we’ll talk about them in a second what malady was able to do was on the one week in five years when he had a great week he got into the mix and then on the back nine when it was Showtime it

Was time to go out there and win he hit every shot that he needed to do or he needed to do and like Strokes gain guts Strokes gain like hitting shots matters malady was was clutch under the gun like can we name on one hand the amount of

Players who we would us to hit that long iron into 17 like he did this this season I don’t think we can maybe Scotty that Scotty and who else W maybe that five iron or whatever Club he hit High draw posed on it to six feet on one of

The hardest holes like one of the harder part threes on tour to win the golf tournament and the drive on 16 the bullet cut on the hardest hole of the day the hardest hole of the week the snake pit Peter malady is stepping up there posing on the te like hitting on M

Mind blown and then I mean like on 182 like obviously I assume he knew by the time he got to 18t that he had a two- shot lead so that takes off a little bit of the pressure but still you have a generational driver one of the best

Drivers on the PJ tour and cam young snap one off the planet on 18 and then melady yeah he didn’t hit the Fairway but that left bunker was a totally totally fine spot to be I think any player in the mix off the final T would

Have wanted to play from that bunker it was it was totally fine he puts it there he gets the job done my question for you I was thinking about this before is in the one in a million chance that Peter malady rides the wave of this to a

Strong performance at Augusta does the malady flowchart apply would the Masters at that point be a bad golf tournament if let’s say malady’s top 10 at any point in the first seedings what a question that might be question of the Year candidate I mean the flowcharts are strong and the flowcharts always remain

True like even with minwu this week I bet him and I went against the flowchart and you said it right when I put in the bet in in the chat I’m sorry about that men money I feel like you’s got to go with the flowchart if Pete monatti

Cracks a top 10 even if he’s like the first group off and Bird’s won bad tournament bad tournament so we’ll have to see in a few weeks yeah keep your eyes peeled there I think I saw he opened like 700 to one he might be longer odds than I saw 1500 yeah he

Might be longer odds than some of the like past champions uh like Freddy Couples that’s disrespect to Mady like in a course where you can hit it wherever you want off the tea for the most part get it up and down I think Mady could surprise uh Ed austa but

That’s a story for another day the guy who we’ve got a few guys we need to talk about before getting on to Houston we won’t do a long pod today because again if you’re listening to this uh you’re a die hard but we want to have something

For you but it’s uh there’s not a ton to talk about but cam young you you go first because you know where I’m gonna be having takes but he’s he’s somewhat your guy what the hell I mean I after watching Sunday and you probably saw my tweet earlier in the

Week when I was at the practice rounds I saw cam Young struggling in in the practice rounds and um I watched cam young enough times to like see when he’s dist STW and he was going on like six weeks of solid golf maybe he’s a little

Bit tired I was like ah this guy needs to take a week off he was took two balls off the te horrible swing two balls in the Fairway one horrible swing and I was like no cam young I’m not betting him and I truthfully was going to bet him

Because I always bet cam young and Sunday I was like this is the week he was making those six Footers made a few par saves from the French I was now Camy young is going to win on a golf course that I I liked him on but then I

Saw him hit bad shots in the practice round and then we just waited and we waited and cam young appeared duck Hook off 17 and what caps it off even more I mean fine recovery shot whatever the three putt on 18 leaving up leaving it nine feet short was hilarious because

Even if you make par there there’s plenty of like I F five out of 10 times Pete Mady probably makes aogi in that spot even if you make par there like cam Young could still be in the golf tournament the three putt was so funny

Like I was dying I think it brought to life very vividly a take also that we’ve been talking about on this pod I think you go against this take sometimes but I’ve tried to like stay strong to it is if we’re betting guys in the 20s or

Whatever cam young was last week and they go to the final round or the final T tied for the lead do I mean I didn’t trust him I didn’t have him or I didn’t like care if C young won or not like at that point I was rting for not after

Hughes had like dipped out but I don’t think cam young betters were confident that he was going to win in that situation so it’s like why bet a guy when you could bet five guys at 100 to one for the same price when at least in

My opinion maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think people trusted him down the stretch to win that tournament yeah and I the only reason I thought he was going to win is because like it would make sense for for me to be off of them for the first time in

Forever but at the end of the day like it all it was just a matter of time cuz he was hitting the good shots he was doing everything he should because when he’s under no pressure he’s and like we see him all the time in practice rounds

Like he looks like an elite golfer and the golf course made perfect sense and yeah I mean I still believe it is a matter of time before he breaks through because like he’s too good and we’ve seen it we see it a lot we see a lot of

Guys struggle but I he I think this week puts him on a different level truthfully because it’s now seven Runner UPS it’s the most since a name in the 80s that he’s got the most runner-ups without a win so definitely puts him on a different level we talk about like the the Russell

Henley of the world the W Al tour of the world the runner reps but this is a different level yeah I mean he basically gained two strokes in every category and then four plus off maybe five off the te like it’s a recipe for winning golf tournaments you do that consistently

Enough you’re going to break through but for me they they just solidified my take on cam young that he is unbal uh in the 20s I bet him at the Players he was like 7080 obviously didn’t play good didn’t mix at all but I think for me that’s

When I want to bet cam young and for some reason in one of these Majors coming up and he his odds Elevate that’s when I’d be looking at him because I do think there’s more consistency across the bag right now than maybe there has been uh from him previously uh quickly

Going down M Hughes was trying to give me a luckbox victory and the thing was I would never complain about a luck boox Victory we we’ll take anything we can get at this point he was pouring in 50F Footers and people were like oh luck box

I think even you said it I was like that’s ma hug yeah it’s like I’ll take it but unfortunately the terrible approach play came to cost him on 12 and 13 he he battled back a little bit towards the end but at least uh MC

Hughes gave me a sweat I I will say when M Hughes went to the back nine or I think the ninth hole he was two shots ahead of malady and then by like the 12th hole he walked off or the 13th ho he walked off two behind malady that was

A dark moment for me personally because I was also getting crushed on the hardwood in in March Madness and for all of that to be happening simultaneously uh was a low point for me this what odd did you bet Mac at it I think it was no

He was in the 100 it was like 100 to one or something like that yeah like you bet Mack Hughes knowing it’s luck box like that’s not a hot take and but you’re not going to bet him at 45 to1 50 to1 like that’s 100 to one 100 to one golfer on a

Guy who Sparks every few months and of course fit that required scrambling you’re not you don’t think MC Hughes is gonna put everything to 10 feet he’s going to make those 50F Footers and it happens like every a few times a year so great bet great call on you obviously he just f

With a few holes to go but he was definitely in the mix looking confident he he never was like ball striking the hell out of it never looked amazing he was just finding himself in Matt Hugh’s position scrambling tremendously and it just came to end too quickly yeah and I

Think I was happy about it because like I’ve been trying at least the last few weeks to stick to if I don’t like guys in like the 20 30 range don’t just bet one of them because I have to like feel like I’ve got to bet one of them if I

Have to bet 10 [ __ ] guys at 100 to one that’s what I’ll do and Hughes is the example of a guy who I would have never bet I think he was one of the last guys that I decided to bet so I’m happy with that strategy I’m going to try to

Stick to it and it was nice to get uh somebody in the mix because of it the guy we have to talk about though is Xander shafley uh for me one of I think his final round was one of the darkest moments of his career uh if I’m being

Honest about it I think it was one of those we had do this take all the time it was a bad thing for his career that final round uh like so good it it was a p why why does he how does it happen I mean like the man you can’t script it

Any better you can’t cannot like truthfully I I I wouldn’t I wasn’t watching the early coverage I got back before Keith teed off I was like oh Xander shley is two off the lead with one of the rounds of the week like after being in negative contention all week

Xander did what Xander does and it I tweeted something about you could not script a better Xander shle final round it was as perfect of a Xander shle performance as you get in his entire career and I just don’t we cannot fathom it I if you ask Xander I don’t even know

What he would say because I don’t get it and that’s what I wish like I don’t people wouldn’t ask this question I think because they’re afraid of like upsetting the golfers which to me is dumb because in most sports you get tough questions and you just suck it up

And answer I’m like yeah ask Xander what the hell why is this happening you know it’s happening we all know it’s happening this isn’t a surprise this like what goes on in your mind that makes this happen and what are you doing to fix it because I’d love to hear that but

Yeah I mean it’s just there’s really nothing to say what’s going to happen it’s going to be so typical the next time he’s close to let’s say at the Masters Xander’s playing well because he should play well at the Masters he’s going to be up there he goes into the

Final round here’s what’s going to happen he’s gonna be one shot back he may even be leading the tournament next time and here come the tweets they’re going to say no Xander final round scoring have you looked at Xander final round scoring he’s good final round scoring yeah cool I don’t care because

He just shot six under at bpar that’s going to make his final round scoring look good he’s great in the final round when he has nothing to play for like I don’t care this man cannot win golf tournaments I’m tired of it it frustrates me it makes me angry because

I like sander he’s such a good golfer but I was genuinely upset watching him yesterday and then it it was also typical because he got on that heater and it was like oh could he post nine could he Post 10 like there was a reasonable there was a belief that like

He could do it and he misses some putts they look they go low they don’t look good and and even when so he even started once he got to that like sniffing the lead it kind of once he started getting on TV and it was like oh

Xander’s here and he knows he’s close to the lead because it was 10 to start the day he’s H here we go Xander is in contention it’s uh it’s it’s over but yeah that was all time Xander performance horrible for his career hierarchy so yeah I don’t know what to

Say about Xander horrendous uh Bez did not win uh Bez cannot win fine performance from Bez T9 and that totally makes sense for him uh let’s talk Keith Mitchell briefly because you were on him uh I said before the week when you bet Keith Mitchell it draws my attention I

Think you have a good read on when Keith will be bringing things to the table it was looking so good you were tweeting about the ball striking it was a generational ball striking performance for three uh rounds he holds it on 18 to take the lead going into the final round

I don’t think I’ve ever seen that happen before that was pretty sick and then we get Bo Hustler uh off the first T there we get the right the left Miss and play probably should have been out of bounds on almost any golf course uh I assume

You were pretty nervous once you saw that first t- shot oh yeah it was it was over from from the start with Keith but um like I said like you said you like when I’m on Keith he was the first guy I bet all week from because from being

There in the practice rounds the only the thing that Drew my mind was you need to be long and Tred off the te you need to be playing out of the Fairway and being long is great which which is why I like cam young but then I saw him hit

Poor shots so I was like okay Keith Mitchell looks great and he’s playing good golf Keith Mitchell’s the first bet I’m I’m making it worked for three rounds and obviously 18 was lucky but he was hitting the ball so well and then the nerves got to him immediately and never recovered but I

Almost would rather a loss like that cuz this hurt less than Xander her the week before two straight 54 hole leaders but this is why we’re hitting a live winner this week um two straight 54 hole leaders and just comes down and at quicker than ever which I it is what it

Is like he was never gonna win after that drive on number one he didn’t fix it because the whole front nine was all hooks it was just horrendous but yeah Keith like I like him this week but um yeah very bad very pathetic and then uh my random long shot

Of the week was Sheamus power he uh was in the mix there for I didn’t end up betting him but it was nice to have the random long shot of the week uh mix around keep your eyes on Sheamus I think he’s on his way back his short game he

Had a chip I think it was on like the second or third hole or it might have be in the first hole he went like long long left of the green and hit his chip like 25% of the way there that was a tough scene we saw cam champ uh threw his hat

Into the ring long time no see from cam champ there was a moment there I was like cam champ winning would both make the least sense and the most sense of anything that’s happened this year uh there was one other guy that I wanted to uh mention oh Chandy Phils a new

Nickname a new player we got to keep eyes on Chandler Phillips I wrote him up uh before the tournament because his stats were looking good he shaved the mustache went with a more normal look but uh Chandy Phils each year it seems like at the Valar we get one of these

Solid ball Strikers who comes up from the corn fairy Davis Riley obviously Taylor Moore came through last year nice little player I think we got to keep our eyes on Chandy Phils uh going forward yeah did you see his interview yesterday and after he was playing really good I

Tweeted that he hit a lady and she was bleeding and he said that like the EMS had to come on number on his like he went wide right on the par 3 eth and then he was like watch this interview after this he was clearly like dist

Straw and like not all the way there and he’s like I can’t lie man like that really like messed up my round I mean no excuses but he was never going to win anyway so it was just a great showing from him yeah you were on you had eyes

On him before before I did so that’s like a great nugget because he clearly showed good signs to be a great ball Striker to potentially contend in the future but yeah I just thought it was crazy how like he’s he it hit off a lady’s like head or something and then

It hit another guy in the neck I don’t know how he like dual wielded someone but it was crazy but watch his interview if you can yeah I saw I think I saw your tweet I was doing stuff yesterday but we’ve said you got to be alert at the

Golf tournament something bad is going to happen I’m genuinely afraid of it uh so if you go to golf tournaments please just but if you’re listening to this you’re the type of person who there’s no chance the people who aren’t paying attention to golf tournaments are listening to the Valar recap in Houston

Open pod so uh there’s probably no point of talking about it but spread the word uh St safe out there quickly guys who missed the cut spe I was busy watching basketball pretty much all week uh on Thursday was looking good terrible off the planet uh loser feno what did feno

Shoot I mean he was wasn’t even close to winning uh minwoo flowchart we we’ve got to stick to the not going to work uh who else is down here in Miss cutland Ryan Fox did not I said he was going to win the B all year

He did not come close Vic Perez random Euros of the week you don’t chase the chalk random Euro of the week I I think everyone knows it like that’s just no-brainer Taylor Montgomery I bet him for the first time we’ll never be doing yeah horrible hor horrible performance

And then Sam Burns 12 to one Sam Burns missing the cut uh losing Infinity Strokes off the te I I hate to see that for my guy yeah that was a tough look for Sam Burns and but they were I was watching his interviews pre- tournament

And they were like what is it about this golf course why do you always play well here and he’s he was like it’s nothing really like it’s I don’t even love the course I just always play well here and he was they were like is you playing

Well like transition of this week he’s like no it’s just another week on the PJ tour so I was like uh something doesn’t seem right with Sami and clearly he was playing so great and playing so great in 2024 and then misses the cut at the course he plays tremendously just that’s

Just a microcosm of golf in 2024 yeah it’s so often they ask guys like why do you play good at this course and they’re like I don’t know man just Vibes it’s like it’s like do the it’s kind of annoying I’ll be honest it is kind of

Annoy like like you are a professional athlete and there’s clearly a like you’re playing good at this course you can’t think of any reason why and like there are times too when I’m looking at the stats I’m like I could probably tell you why you’re playing good at like it’s

So frustrating maybe it’s just the mindset you have to be to be a golfer because it’s such a frustrating sport but that [ __ ] always pisses me off and it’s funny when it comes up but uh we’re moving on let’s get to the Houston open it’s a course that we’ve now seen a few

Times give me your high level Houston what are you looking for what do you like yeah I think this course being moved to March is really going to change how it plays I was really high on just total driving being both long and straight similar to last week but

Emphasized here in the year’s past but I think that’s going to be a little bit less the less this year because the rough is going to be a little bit more dormant a little bit uh not as strong so uh think that’s going to lead to a

Higher or lower winning score we see like anywhere from minus 9 to minus33 I believe in the last few years but I think we could stretch closer to 15 which I guess widens the gap for more players to win uh if it’s easier conditions which I think is a good thing

Because Scotty shuffler is three to one and if it was in a normal year I think this you couldn’t I mean still you can’t have a better course fit for Scotty to have a three Pat the Tea Green based weak field like makes Texas it makes a

Ton of sense for Scotty but I think the season change is going to help the field in the yeah I mean I will I’ve never seen this uh I read the like superintendent right up each week on the PJ tour and this week they said the overseed now will provide a much tighter

Playing surface than the Bermuda grass did in 2022 this will highlight the penal green surrounds while shorter rough gives opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green to me that sounds like bomber Central this course is already bomber Central absolutely send it from the te and then I really

Think that I mean I I will be honest I don’t consume that much content outside of what we’re doing just because it takes so much time to do like what we do I think we we do a solid enough job at it that to me this is a putting contest

I mean the winners here have gained six on the greens and then KRA and fow gaining almost nine like obviously fow historically not a great putter but he was in great putting form coming into this tournament last year to me we’ve got a bomber put it uh event and then

With the rough down like yeah you can be approach so it’s like bomit spike your approach spike your putting not too worried about around the greens because if you’re missing too many greens especially with the more penal around the green conditions like you’re probably not winning the tournament

Anyway and then yeah off the T I just don’t think it’s a Strokes gained off the T course I think it’s send it from the t uh if you don’t have accuracy that’s kind of cool especially with this rough down yeah I mean just you saying

That makes me want to bet Keith Mitchell even more because I mean but what we saw on Sunday I don’t know if I can again but yeah I totally agree with everything you had to say I think just bom out there similar to what we’ve seen Detroit

Uh make a ton of puts and my hot take for the week one of the reasons I wanted to pod and and this is a great take to give because if Scotty wins the tournament then I can just go well it’s Scotty you know he supposed to win the

Tournament Scotty’s not winning the tournament I don’t think he like it sure every course is a great course fit for Scotty he finishes top 10 every single course it doesn’t matter where you’re playing he finish the top five pretty much everywhere he plays but when I see

Winners gaining six on the greens nine on the greens nine on the greens Kevin TW when you finished second to CRA gained Infinity on the greens uh this isn’t the PLAYERS Championship where we were really obviously high on Scotty because he could literally just gain ta

To Green not have to make any putts and win he’s GNA have to make putts here no matter how well he strikes it and his driving will be diminished versus the field here because driving it long and straight like was crucial at Bay Hill and saw grass is not going to be as

Crucial here so that’s my hot take of the week Scotty isn’t winning and I think that presents value on this board and honestly that’s why I’m kind of excited about this tournament are you like Scotty no I’m with you there plus like these greens are big so guys can be

Making putts from a long distance which uh which is another narrative for him to not win I do really believe that if this was in the regular spot in the calendar and it was the same situation we’re seeing now like Scotty like not that I

Would bet him at three to one like but he’s winning um but yeah now with that I think the the rough being shorter opens the gap for a bunch of players you’re gonna have to make a ton of putts still gonna have to hit your uh because it’s a

Longer than a normal wedge Fest so you’re still going to have to I don’t want like just random 250 to1 guys who will probably just win who but generally good wedge players which we see at like MX stuff like that I still like think you have to hit your middle line long

Irons well here but more putting is important than we’re than we’re used to seeing here and the Gap is widened because of the rough being down yeah I agree Soh obviously I think Scotty like yeah he’s gonna finish T2 he’s gonna finish T like he’s obviously going to be

Right there I just think this isn’t a place where 275 like plus 275 Scotty a I would never bet somebody at plus 275 in golf ever but I just it I genuinely thought he had a better chance of winning the Players than he does this week like that’s a take but that’s my

Stance uh the next guy before we get to the range of Despair wyc is like 12 to one uh this is not a big dick tournament this doesn’t make sense I mean the course makes sense for Wy send it from the te and make a bunch of putts like

Course fit I’d argue he’s probably even a better course fit than Scotty like it makes all the sense in the world for but I’m not convinced I’m not interested at all at 12 to1 are you and I would say that like I still think of Wendy you bet Wendy and

Big dick events until we see otherwise yeah and this is we’re we finally like we talked about last week we finally got the increase on the Winden Clark pricing I know I know the field has to go into it but the last time he was sub2 to1 I

Believe was uh oh yeah the Puerto Rico or the event that Matt Wallace won is it correct corales I think corales yeah yeah corales he was like 18 to1 and he tried to back door like a T3 uh so yeah I don’t think I mean I haven’t been

Betting Wy I’m not definitely not going to chase it in between 12 and 15 and one no chance no but the course fit does make sense for sure and this is only semi related but all the things that we just talked about with the setup of the

Course this year I think whether it’s intentional or not I don’t know but like it is a really good Augusta Prep because they’ve brought the rough down it’s more iron play focused it’s and iron play and then make putts like I’ll be interested to see for some of these guys just how

They play in general because I do think this is a good warmup for the Masters we saw when this tournament was just before the Masters when DJ won uh at Augusta that he played well here Hadi as well uh so in general outside of just like who wins this tournament let’s say Scotty

Wins by five if Scotty dominates this tournament then to me he’s gonna win The Masters easily so if you’re like Scotty this week just parlaying with the Masters because I think they kind of go hand inand but I’m interested to see how Wendy plays because uh

In general this course fit makes a ton of sense for him and as he gets warmed up for Augusta I think it’s cool that he’s playing I think any of the top players who are playing is a good sign about like where they are mentally the

Players are going to sit out and not play until the Masters after playing at Saw Grass I don’t like that I don’t like that I agree with you do not like it at all so we get into the range of Despair here and I call this the range of

Despair now because like no one ever wins a golf tournament between 20 and 30 to1 but we all bet him every single week it never works out uh so range of dispair we’ve got Willie z a man that we’ve been hyping up for this tournament for quite some time Tony feno looking to

Go back to back Tony feno uh this is great for me because I’ve had to wait a long time to defend my outright winner on Tony feno uh at the Houston open back in 2022 so I got a he’s here that’s also defending for me uh after hitting him

Here last time and then home game for teags uh he’s from lives in Houston I do believe and then Jason day who’s Strokes G Texas as well with his win at the Byron Nelson in the range of Despair just rank them for me Willie Z Tony teags Jason day from least likely to

Most likely yeah it’s it’s tough because you know we were so high in will Z but I think the amount of putts you’re going to need to make is a little bit too much I I do not think we’re going to see like minus 25 or whatever like that but it’s

Going to be more than normal I want to say willly Z and I’m not worried about the recent the miscut S Grass at all literally throw it out the throw it out s grass is so volatile but it’s so it’s Wily Z FES Jason day and tone all right

I’m gonna go will Z number one um Jason day number two strokes G Texas and he’s just playing under the radar golf can make a ton of putts thues and then tone I just don’t trust tone at all at all looked horrendous when I saw him on the

On the practice rounds and then thues chalk thues out on I do think the the the way the fact that the rough is down just helps him tremendously because if the rough was up this week he’d be so boned and although he is driving it really well but I don’t think we gonna

CH I don’t think we can chase the theala driver because I just think what we know from him the last three years it’s he’s got those spikes weaks I know it’s consisted right now but it’s just due to come back to earth a little bit but the

Conditions do help him but I’ll I’ll keep those rankings how they have this is going to be a challenge for me this week because I’ve been saying this year you bet TS it’s 70 to one and that’s gone pretty well for me when I when I’ve

Slung him in the 70s he’s gotten into the mixx he’s played well he’s 22 to one this week but everything that we’ve talked about to this point sounds like a a te’s golf course to the max he’s driving it much better and he doesn’t even need to be driving it much better

He’s got great distance from the t uh he can hit it pretty much wherever he wants and then find a way to get the ball up towards the green and then on these on any greens right now he’s of these top players that we’ve discussed so far to

Me it’s Wendy and teags is the clear best two Putters um amongst this group and then you add in the home game like he’s going to have support uh in the areir he’s going to have a ton of support there’s a large Indian Community too like indian-american community in

Houston I assume they’ll be out there backing him it’s just every time at these well actually fortnet his odds weren’t good I was just gonna say I was just gonna say is he gonna win twice at 20 to one like the only times he like at

Least he has won at 20 to one at least he has like there’s other guys who we bet in the 20s who never win at least T has won in the 20s yeah that’s what I was going to say so this is I think the

Last time he was priced this high it was the only other time price this High could be mistaken but it was a win in Nappa just a few months ago had him not a big deal but I don’t know it’s it’s tough there was no Scotty shuffler in

That field there was no like he was the name in that field was Xander there I don’t remember he was one of the top names uh JT was there and uh our boy Cam Davis right okay Cam Davis was a lock that week yeah he should have had it but

Yeah and the other thing about TS is I’ve always had the take that you don’t play teags after he played well you wait a week and then you bet him again he did go two straight good start with a T6 at API T9 at players and if we remember

Back to the players podcast we were saying TS is one of the best players on the PGA to or now like it’ll be interesting to see I gotta really think about it because I’m super tempted so for me it’s going to be tees as in that

Group number one uh zal number two I agree with the putter thing now that I looked into the stats more it’s just like I don’t think he I don’t see him G six plus yeah day could just black out on the greens make a ton of putts and

Mix I don’t think he can win I don’t think the odds are good at all and then yeah tone I will say for tone he did win this tour off of a miscut uh last time and it was off of like a shitty field miscut in myoba but that’s hilarious

Actually he can’t like he’s finally been putting better and then the ball striking goes off the cliff at BBY we can’t be having that so he’ll be last in that group for me I I wrote up that seu winning at 33 to1 would be the worst thing that’s ever happened for the BJ

Tour and then I actually quickly adjusted that to say Alex noren winning at 35 to one would be the worst thing that’s ever happened to the PJ uh do you agree with those takes I mean SEIU could not make more sense in my opinion I I

Don’t know if he has the putting upside but he gained eight ball striking here last year he gained for the first time across the board last year at the Players since the Dallas when he almost won he lives in Dallas he’s a Texas guy see is the most Texas guy on tour

Everyone knows that and um yeah I mean he makes ton of sense but do I trust SE would have gain a ton of Strokes pting do I want to bet SE at 35 to1 like we said we don’t want to bet SE were at 50 to one with the players which obviously

Much different fields but same idea like you don’t and you still got to beat Scotty it’s we’re chasing SEIU I mean everyone has to be Scotty but not that we’re chasing SEIU but I don’t I don’t know want to bet him what 30 35 to one

He’s like the one of the first clicks I really wanted to make too but I just I I didn’t yet but I’m not all the way out I we still got time my thing is I think this is a week where it’s important I’m saying this to my myself more than

Anything like there’s going to be a ton of guys from a tto green perspective who it’s like they’re lock for a top 20 this week they maybe even a lock for a top 10 just because like the way the course is set up and see was an example one but

It’s like I need you to make putts sew at 33 to one sew never makes putts that like I I can’t do it I literally can’t do it and if it hits I would feel nothing I could see him shooting 64 in round one and then finishing the next

Round at the same exact number like minus s or whatever and this being minus seven that’s very supero hypothetical three ball here between some guys who I think are interesting Stevie yegs uh Jake knap uh I’m just going to say there’s a Mexico comp here if you

Take Tony and want to know who hits their driver really far and actually putts pretty well and can Spike with the irons Jake knap and then uh I’m not gonna give you Bo hostler because that’s uh too easy I’ll give you Tom H I’ll give you hogi because hogi

Has been playing really good I assume he’ll be popular this week so hogy nap and uh Stevie eggs I’m gonna go with Stevie eggs because for two reasons uh still out on chasing Jake knp numbers and the consistency of jger is fine back toback Miss Cuts volatile golf courses

Can live with it and then look how Tom hogi hit his driver last week or at the Players worst driving week of his career I know there’s water in play I know that has a lot to do with it but I just can’t trust you I mean Tom hogi doesn’t have

The distance and he’s a generational wedge player I don’t We’re not gonna get a ton of wedges out here I’m out on Tom hogi out on Jake nap so by default Stevie eggs I might be in on thatp just because you you love him

Uh so I do have to report and I reported this before Mexico right we don’t have a ton of data yet because there’s only been so many Houston opens at Memorial Park the leading crossover top 10 Tory Pines and last time we said that last

Time we said that about both Ys and nap was at Mexico and if there’s a Mexico comp here and nap sending it from the te and nap has gained putting one two three four five six in a row he’s a good putter uh I could be down for some Jake

Nap so keep your keep uh tuned for that for the subscribers be on to look out in the Discord uh might be Jake knap season for me now to be fair I’ve not even come close to getting Jake knap right so don’t take that for anything but I do

Think at 55 to one uh at least he won recently yeah at least he’s won I I have a question for you uh to to to move on um I’m sure I’m sure you’re gonna bring him up honestly but I just he’s in my head what are Kurt’s numbers I mean

Kurt’s odds Kurt’s 55 we can’t bet Kurt I hate to report okay Kurt is is not going to make enough putts uh probably true true okay yeah with the new if this was last year or 2022 I’d be so down I mean yeah we I feel like we gotta stick

To that narrative you’re right Kurt’s been in the hundreds for months months he spent in the hundreds and now he’s 55 like I I can’t I can’t do it that’s we’re just not we’re not far off from him like leading the field T green at Pebble and like finishing top 10 in

Phoenix I think you can play good I like guy I’m a Kurt guy I like Kurt uh it’s just I’ve been I’ve been betting him a lot the putter is just I can’t trust the putter I I can’t get there but T green makes a ton of sense uh like DFS

[ __ ] like that if he’s if his ownership is is reasonable then sure I’m on board from Kurt from that perspective a guy who jumped out to me when I opened up the odds I thought you wrote him up as well Luke list 80 to one why why is Luke

List 8 to one because I think he only plays well in on the west coast outside of Sandy but I’m down for I am down for Luke list Bomb It Off The Tea the putter has shown real life in 2024 but yeah the number doesn’t make any sense and that’s

The thing I was goingon to say with the putter like we’ve been talking about all these guys seu for example Kurt uh can these guys make putts uh obviously that’s the question about Luke list but he is actually making more putts than all of those guys so and he can gain a

Lot on on the greens he could also lose 27 on the greens but like it’s a we have right he’s 8 to1 he can win uh he was just up there at Riv which is I think Riv like there’s some comp there with just send it from the te and then go

From there um and in 2022 when Coke crack won list dominated that tournament T to Green uh he was Far and Away the best player T green so there’s things to like with luk list this week at 80 to1 it almost makes so little sense that it

It feels like almost a trap bet random year of the week we got about five minutes here we didn’t necessarily get a random Euro of the week in the mix uh at bbar but I would say Sheamus power because he’ been off the radar for so long he he

Technically qualifies he we did have a euro in the final group so another week where we get the euro in the mix the odds the we’ve got dietre how do you feel about I gonna say D I was gonna say diet when you when you say driver putter

He’s a liability with the irons but if this is a dver putter Golf Course Tory Pines comp give me Tommy DEET he he canot we know he cannot win but what are his odds are over 100 100 plus yeah oh yeah I’m I’m down he play he played good

Last week at bpar which is not necessarily a course where I would expect Tommy Deets to play good t7 uh yeah sign me up on the random year of the week train for Deets also bounceback for Vic Perez I like if you liked Vic Perez last week at whatever he was you

Better like him this week uh bomb it he di he dipped down again yeah bomb it and then just black out with the putter that’s that’s Vic Aaron Ry has great course history here too for whatever reason and he does better in difficult conditions but should be easier this

Year which makes me a little worried but uh he’s going to play out of the Fairway he not going to be long what about a guy that I know you like mattye walls Matty walls a rare gaining across the bag from Matty walls uh he’s 13th in the model

This week 130 yeah I was TR tracking him a lot last week because I had him first round leader and he was like a staple DFS guy for me played fine uh course might be a little long for him in my opinion but uh no hard no real hard NOS

Or hard yeses probably won’t get there though why don’t who the course is not going to be too long for I’ve got two guys for you Matty well got got got off to an all right start for you uh there at a big number I thought I thought he might be

Mixing did not work out but Matty Schmid and Vinnie Norms the course isn’t gonna be too long for those guys Vin Norms yes a boun spot for Vinnie it’s I don’t even want want to say bounceback because it’s been pretty bad in 2024 for Vinnie but

It’s been horrible he’s won twice in his short career I’m sure he’s more than okay and this is a spot where you could just absolutely absolutely launch it off the te and hopefully get hot at the pter which he definitely can do definitely down for Vinnie norms and who was the

Other guy you said uh your boy M when you faded at Players yeah I mean what has he found because he was the worst golfer on tour and then he’s now he’s like what three straight made cuts and he’s playing decent golf down for Matty Schmidt because I’ve been so I was so

High on him in early 2024 when he was playing like an absolute dog meaning a bad meaning horrible and now he’s playing great so yeah I like Matty Schmid always Matty Schmid I would take over Vinnie Norms with like eight hammers because I trust Matty Schmid to

Make putts I I don’t trust Vin Norms to even come close to making putts and so Matty Schmid he might be my random year of the week uh one thing I was remembering we should actually maybe we’ll end with this and then quickly do long shot of the week we forgot to talk

About a guy at bbar and I’ll just tee it up for you because I need your take on it Justin Thomas what what the hell was that he shot like 80 he shot right I think he shot 78 or 79 but might as well have been 80

I I don’t I’m like speechless I don’t know how you could you couldn’t have a worse Saturday you you could not have a worse Saturday if you were Justin Thomas what’s happened the last few weeks he was playing so well he was quote unquote back what where do you go from here how

Do you have any confidence in yourself and I mean not even from an outsider perspective like how do you have any confidence in yourself he was all I’m not even talking about the like the the loose drives he missed so many putts you saw the like putting stats I know you

Did I don’t have any words pathetic is an understatement yeah I I I I was out on him last week I said I didn’t trust the putter uh we can’t trust the putter you cannot trust Justin Thomas’s putter burn it into your brains everybody out there

The man sucks at putting he’s a horrible putter great player but but until he putts shows any signs of life with the putter it’s a hard no for me every single week uh for him I let’s let’s end here I’ve sorted the list by guys who

Hit it the furthest off the T where’s DAV we’ll get just a second the first cam though cam champ is he’s hot with the putter cam champ in two of his last three starts he’s gained over four on the greens cam champ can win when he

Gets into the mix and cam champ is uh 150 to one out I I I can’t get behind chasing cam champ after one good week of showing signs I’m he needs to he he knows he needs to qualify for the Masters though gusta like oh that’s probably why no

That’s why he’s playing so good oh c he’s a lock for T8 out of he’s putting unbelievable he’s putting really good uh I might back Camp champie too [ __ ] think about what about where’s Chandler Phillips in is he in the field uh Chand is in the field he’s

1 15 to one but you you I’ll tee you up for a walkoff with a guy who we talk about all the time Cam Davis you were just saying him he’s not actually he’s not hitting it as far this year I think he’s rained it back a little bit he’s

Not even top 20 right he’s not even let me add a little bit of time frame yeah he he he’s not sending it from the tea as much as he uh has been but he’s 80 to1 he’s just as likely to win at 80 to1

As he is at 30 to1 right yeah he was literally like 30 to1 I think at in Napa uh in I guess a little bit better for him but he shot Infinity at the Players but before the players he was showing some good signs we saw him in the

Practice round looking very not pleased hopefully he’s had that what two weeks off or one week off to ran it back in because this is definitely a golf course I love cam Davison and I love Cam Davis I’ll continue to say it in no form just to surprise anyone because the talent I

Believe still is off the charts and 80 to one can definitely get down with that uh is higo do we know why he withdrew at the Players was it just this illness or something I think it was illness yeah because this is definitely a spot where like he can Bomb It Off the

Tea and make make putts so yeah what OD 200 uh his odds are 200 yeah that’s a good bet I’m I’m we’ve been high on higo this year if you’re high on higo and then I don’t think you liked him in your write up he’s probably gonna play terrible but uh

Nicki done if you don’t need to hit it straight uh tricky Nick done I’ll give him a look what where does he rank in driving distance Lu’s win I think his win at the AMX was the luckiest win of the century truthfully Dunlap is uh 26 than driving

Distance and I would say my cut off here is like top 40 like you need to be about Top 40 for to to catch my eye this week yeah I think he’s yeah I mean I don’t I’m not a high I’m not not high on Nick Dunlap even though he’s won already I’m

Gonna say no and uh if also if you don’t need to hit it straight Ryan Fox I’m not going to give up on Fox uh I’ll give him a look here India open Bond 22 to1 like they’re giv they’re giving away money on the DP World T this this week

Yeah I think I’m gonna go with juice if he can get to 30 to one has really good course history and then there was one more guy I really liked it was I want to have it right here oh oh not I’m not even gonna say Owen Ferguson 20 to one

But I don’t yeah bad bad I’m I’m I’m mad that yesper won because I got bet y for like five times this year and I didn’t even realize he was 70 to1 last week so that was disapp funny luckily Sam Barstow didn’t win because I’ve bet Sam

Barow every single week I was like I was legitimately like this would be the worst thing that’s ever happened to me if Sam be won that was scary we both had so many guys in the mix and not one of them came close no Freddy I had two of

The three guys in the final group going into the weekend and I opened the app up at like 11 p.m. because I always love when the DP starts like early at night so you can see yeah they were like eight holes through and I was that you can’t

Save players in the DP app anymore so I had to I was like scrolling I was like I must have missed them like they were probably a couple over they were both like five over each Richie mans and Freddy shots through uh like eight holes

Yeah I had mans and then Jordan Smith I had after he was first round leader I was like okay this is probably he may be in the mix for the weekend did not even like he shot like 76 one of the days like all right okay just the DP it’s the

DP is literally just like throwing money away but it’s fun so I but then they come over to the PGA Tour and become prolific winers because yeah pone pone mixed over there in Singapore he he decided it made sense to go to Singapore to prep for his first Masters as did

Chan Lowry as did Shane Lowry so jur appreciate it uh good stuff we’ll be back we we’ll be back every week I’ll make a promise to folks we’re not going to sit a week uh we’ll bring takes even uh in the darkest of hours so jurs appreciate it good luck this week talk

To you later peace see you guys