Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Houston Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:26 – bet365 Promo
01:21 – Corey Conners
02:50 – Ludvig Aberg
04:47 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout
06:20 – Maverick McNealy
07:33 – Keith Mitchell
09:30 – Aaron Rai
10:27 – Alex Noren
11:31 – Lucas Glover
14:01 – Mark Hubbard
14:58 – Brendan Todd
16:16 – Andrew Novak
18:48 – Ryan Moore
19:58 – Rory McIlroy
21:49 – Ben Martin
23:13 – Bud Cauley
25:10 – bet365 Promo
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#AuthorTonySartori #BlueWireVideo
Welcome to links and locks action networks golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy laack and I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartor for these Best Bets episodes and just like Jason and Ben have done the last couple of years Tony and I will play 18 holes today
Giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the valo Texas open before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than
With anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for the biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check
Out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 1800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions
And restrictions apply okay Tony we are on the first te for our Valero Texas open Best Bets get us started yeah so I’m going to go pretty chalky here to start us off um so Zach Johnson went back to back in 0809 and I’m going to
Pick Cory Connors to do so as well and claim his third victory at this course so on top of winning twice here previously Conor’s finished 35th 14th and 26 and his three other appearances here so he’s five for five on made Cuts 35th or better all five times with two
Wins he’s just utterly dominated here um he’s going to be a little bit of a tougher field this week for sure but he’s such a good approach player that I’m not too worried about the level of competition that he’s going to face this week um and it makes sense that a Greg
Norman design chorus kind of compliments or at least this Greg Norman design chorus compliments his game it’s it’s a ball Striker course for sure especially on the approach and that is the strongest part of Conor’s game and it is nice that Sheffer won’t be in this field
This week um so Conor has gained Strokes on the approach in 12 straight tournaments and he ranks six on tour in that category he’s made the weekend an all 12 of those tournaments and he’s finished inside the top 25 five times he’s playing good golf and it’s because
Of his approach game and now he’s going to a venue where he’s had a lot of success because of that approach game the one thing that’s kind of kept him from like being get into like the top five and winning these events that he’s been playing well
At is his putting but he’s had so much experience at this course as someone who’s won it twice I think that he’s GNA know the greens well he’s going to know where he can hit and where he can’t and so at 22 to1 I like Cory Connor to go back to
Back I’m going to stick in the outright market and go with a selection close to the top of the board I don’t like always going this high but I feel very confident that this is a very logical breakthrough spot for ludvig OAR 12 to1 enhanced on bet 365 ludvig played his
College golf at Texas Tech this is his first return to Texas as a professional golfer uh he has seen this golf course before when he was in college in in 2022 um so he’s at least seen the golf course before and now he returns uh seemingly getting better by the week I
Mean he’s coming off an eighth place finish at The Players where he gained four strokes off the te and five PID eight on approach um I think this longer uh golf course that you know emphasizes long and straight driving uh overall approach play being able to attack and
Score on the par fives um I think this is right up ludvig’s alley and I also kind of like the angle that a lot of the top names um have played in the Masters before and know what’s coming next week and it’s like the classic look ahead
Spot that we see in sports all the time where you know if you know what’s coming the next week um it’s hard to sometimes focus on the present and I kind of like that ludvig is kind of take it’s just he’s never played in a major before you
Know it’s kind of an ignorance as Bliss approach it might be you know hopefully easier for him to focus on the task at hand this week which is what I’m hoping for uh because you know I know he won in the false swing but it’s time that he
Seriously announces himself uh on the the PGA Tour this season he’s playing better than nearly any other player in the field so I’m going ludvig 12 to1 and hands on B 365 there’s never going to be a week where I don’t like taking L go bear like it’s it’s going to come it’s
Going to those wins are going to start to come for more often I’m going to stay in the outright winner market and I’m gonna go um after Christian Baden hoot at 55 to one so he’s been kind of Boomer bust recently in terms of like so he’s
Made nine of his past 11 Cuts so like that that doesn’t necessarily fit the Boomer bus category but just when he is making the cut he’s finishing he’s so close to winning he has three top 10 finishes over that stretch and I just think like I was talking about Conor ear
With the approach that’s gonna be such a key to success this week and I think Baden who that is going to set him apart from a lot of guys in this field he’s gained true Strokes on the approach in nine of his past 11 tournaments he ranks
11th on tour in Strokes gain on the approach this season um and the reason I keep going back to these approach numbers at at TPC San Antonio is that like this is and I’m steal this from another colleague of our at the Action Network who was writing an article on
This this week but such a second golf shot course right and so last year the finishing positions one two and two guys tied for three all four of those guys ranked one two three four exactly in Strokes gain on the approach so like it’s there’s a precedent of like if
You’re going to gain Strokes on the approach that’s how you’re going to separate yourself and of course that’s it’s really not that difficult to score here but if you’re just knocking um your pro shots close you get those birdie putts that’s going to kind of what’s
Going to separate you when you get close to the top of the leaderboard so I mean bazan who finished 28th year last year and that was his first time playing here so now he’s got a professional tournament at this course under his belt he’s playing a lot better now than he
Was last spring so at 55 to1 bazay HUD is who I like in the outright Market as well uh I’m gonna stick in the outright market and go with MAV McNeely 75 to one um I love the way map’s playing uh and he in my opinion is you mentioned one of
Them in Baden how but you know some of these players like horel Baden Hout MAV McNeely Keith Mitchell um I think these are some of the the best guys in this field that are not qualified for the Masters and you know eight of the last 11 years we have seen somebody win the
Week before the Masters that isn’t already qualified and I think of of the players that are not qualified MTH mcney uh has one of the best shots to win this event um he’s had two top 10 finishes already this season on overseed Bermuda he’s one of the best overseed Bermuda
Putters in this entire field he’s driving the ball great right now as well if we can just get the irons uh to be somewhat navigatable uh on a golf course like this I think he’s doing everything else so well right now um rounding into format kind of just the right time and
The extra motivation should be there this week uh for him to hopefully play in what I believe would be his first Masters yeah yeah absolutely that’s actually such a good segue too you just said his name I’m going to stick in the outright market right around the same
Price I’m going to go after Keith Mitchell at 60 to1 on him last week did not obviously did not work out didn’t make the cut but I think I think we see a bounce back here and I think that’s also giving us a nice price at 60 to one
It’s kind of like the Buy Low opportunity opportunity excuse me I don’t want us to forget that before that Miss cut he had five top 20 finishes over his previous eight tournaments prior to last week he has gained true Strokes on the approach in nine consecutive tournaments he ranks 10th on
Tour and strokes gain on the approach and I was talking about like improved performances as you get more like starts here Mitchell finished 26th in his first appearance here and then he followed that up with a 17th Place finish so he’s improved year-over-year when playing at this course he’s playing outside of the
Miscut last week he has been playing a really good brand of golf and it’s mostly been because of the approach game so it’s 60 to1 and for the extra motivation like you said I like Keith Mitchell this week um yeah I mean I’ll I’ll just skip right to my Keith Mitchell play as
Well because I’m I’m a huge fan of him this week too I I don’t really have as much confidence as you do for him to win a golf tournament just from what I’ve seen recently at at the V bar and um some of his other recent performances on
Sunday’s yeah when he gets into contention with that being said like I think he is a great top 30 play this week at plus money I got him plus 150 to finish in the top 30 uh we mentioned the motivation I just think there’s a great
Golf Course for him in general I think there’s a huge underrated advantage to be found if you can reach these par fives and two and Keith Mitchell is one of the longest drivers of the ball in this field he is hitting his irons incredibly well this season like he has
Made a total leap in his approach play so glad to see that we are on the same page that Keith Mitchell is going to have a strong week uh in San Antonio and then for my last hour winner I’m going to go after Aaron Ry at 70 to1
He had a bit of a slow start to 2024 um but he’s really started dial in his game recently he’s made the weekend in four of his past five tournaments and he just finished seventh um at the uh in Houston last week excuse me and that was his
Best performance of the year and he looked really really good um the main reason for this turnament has been his improved iron play that’s been improving as the season has progressed and he now ranks 19th on two in Strokes G on the approach and like Mitchell Ry is a guy
Who has improved year-over-year at this course he first time here finished 29th then last year finished 28th I mean I guess that’s very marginal Improvement but it still shows that like hey now he’s got two full experiences two full four round experiences at this course course underneath his belt he’s playing
His best golf of the season right now and so at 70 to1 I think they are worse Flyers to take than Aaron Ry I’m going to go into the top 20 market and roll with Alex noren uh who who’s just playing some incredible golf right now we were on him last week he
Surged up the leaderboard on Sunday to finish in the top 20 I see no reason to believe that he’s not going to finish in the top 20 again I thought plus 170 were great odds for Alex nor and he’s coming off three top 20 finishes in a row at
The cognizant The Players Championship and then last week at Houston he has played well at the Valero in the past we know he’s got one of the best short games in the field we know is one of the best Putters in the field but I think you really want to Target Alex noren
When that ball striking is starting to come around as well um and this is some of the best that we’ve seen norin hit the ball in the last couple of years so I see no reason to hop off Jagger uh at a course that he’s played well at in in
The past two so I expect joerger to uh keep the momentum going this week with another top 20 finish uh yeah yeah I mean norin he was he was right there for us he was right there for us last week unfortunately could and get it done I’m
Going to take us to the top 10 Market I’m going to go after Lucas Glover who’s 7 to one um so he finished last year he had that fourth place finish at the rocket mortgage and that seemingly I don’t like it sounds dramatic to say it
Revamped his career but he has been a completely different golfer since that tournament than what he had been for a couple years prior to um last season when he did that so including that fourth place finish Glo um Glover has made the weekend in 16 of his past 19
Tournaments and he’s got five top 10 finishes over that strategy so he can hit this number which I really like then at 7even to one and he went back toback wins at the Windom in the St JW championship last year so when his game
Is on he can win and when you’re at the St J championship that’s against a very Elite field um so he can get it done if he can get it done there he can get it done here his approach game has been the main catalyst for this success over the
Past year he’s gained true Strokes on the approach in 16 of um the 17 tournaments of which shot link data has been available during this run he also is coming off an 11 Place finish at the Val bars who he’s right there recently and again if whether he gets it or not
It remains to be seen But if you’re going to give me seven to one and you’re there’s just too many reasons to like Glover I think at that price and not at least like just put a low play on it and finally finished fourth year in 2021 so
He’s proven he can do it if he’s proven he can do it so seven to one why not Lucas Glover uh yeah I love that we are lined once again noticing a theme you having a little um a little bit more confidence and I do uh than these guys
CU my next play was Lucas Clover top 20 plus 300 but I I just think that this guy is a statistical darling for me every week my numbers always seem to love Lucas Glover um I think you want to play him on any golf course that Cory
Coners plays well um I think they do a lot of the same things uh they have very similar games I would actually say that the biggest differentiating factor between the two is that Glover has a much better short game than Conor and actually can get hot around the greens
As well which I I do think matters at TPC San Antonio and you know the only reason I have a little bit less Faith than you is just because I’ve played the game with Glover many times and I’ve seen how cold that putter can get but I
I generally believe that based on his ball striking ability and short game even if he loses a couple Strokes putting I still feel like I have a pretty good cushion um with the top 20 on him at plus 300 yeah awesome I’m glad we’re on the same page on that I’m gonna
Another flyer for me another top 10 big number here at nine to one but I’m going to go after Mark hubard um we’re catching a la number here I mean for good reason I mean he’s not he’s he’s definitely not even close to being a top
10 guy in this field but I just I think nine to there’s worse Dart throws to make the nine to one on hubard he does have one top 10 finish the season and the main reason why I wanted to take this flyer is that because his floor has
Been actually pretty high it’s just he’s not doing much after that but he’s made the cut in every ter he’s been in this season um so he’s making the weekends so N9 to1 is a number where it’s like if he makes the weekend then if he just two
Rounds get hot you don’t even have to win the thing just get up there towards the top 10 and finally there’s a course where he could do that because he does rank 27th on tour and strokes G on the approach this season so you’re giving
Give me the high floor if he makes the weekend I’m not going to lose sleep if he finishes like 25th and I missed out nine to one so Mark hubard is where I’m going to go in that market I’m going to go into the top 40 market for some a
Couple long shot plays at plus odds um that I think are great bets to make the cut I’m going to start with Brendan Todd plus 125 to finish in the top 40 uh there’s a go of course that Todd’s played well at the pass Todd uh remains
One of the best Putters in this field and I know that he gets priced this way because the ball striking comes and goes but we’ve seen his upside before finishing six at the Arnold Palmer recently in a much stronger field um obviously he’s not a player that’s qual
Qualified for the Masters um I expect that we get his best effort this week on a golf course like I said that clearly fits his eye he’s played well here in the past um he just has I like playing on guys in the top 40 Market that are
Elite at something um and Brendan Todd is always live to finish top five based on the strength of his chipping and putting Al loan um he makes a surprising amount of cuts uh despite dinking and dunking out there and not you know possessing a lot of power off the te he
Does it in the old school way uh so I think Brendan Todd plus one and 25 to finish in the top 40 I I expect him to to continue to play well at TPC San Antonio yeah I really like that play I’m gonna go to the first round leader
Market and as always I’m waiting to actually lock in these first round leader plays until tea times are announced which at the time we recording they are not yet so keep an eye out for my first round leader article here this week at the Action Network but with that
Said Assuming he’s just like not in the last group out in the day the first guy I’m going to look at is Andrew Novak and he’s 90 to1 to lead after the first round so Novak has been flying under the radar this season he’s made the weekend
In five of his past six tournaments with three top 10 finishes over that stretch he hasn’t been closing which is kind of why I’m taking this shot on the first- round leader Market instead of uh outright Market but he’s finished ninth here before so we know he can score at
TFC San Antonio and can he use that to get off to a good start on Thursday I think I I mean I think so he ranks 16th on tour and strokes G on the approach and it’s just like if I’m going to take a flyer on I I have some pretty big
Numbers for these first round leader markets if I’m GNA take a flyer on these next three guys I feel more confident that they can just like get hot in one round versus like it’s such it’s a good field so like them holding that for four rounds may be more difficult so at 90
To1 Andrew Novak is who I like to lead after Thursday uh that was a play for me as well by the way that number’s gone down I mean just looking before on BET three 65 um he’s down to 75 now I think there’s a lot of a lot of Merit in that
Because Andrew noic uh significantly raises his baselines in round one um he compared to comparatively speaking to you know his Strokes gain performances round two three and four like he is a much better round one player uh than he is in all the other rounds and I think
That you know if you just keep betting Andrew Novak for first round leader every single week every single week that he’s playing I think there’s a very good especially at such high numbers right especially at a number like 90 to1 I think there’s a very high chance that he
Will come through for you at least once or twice this season so uh I am right there with you on Andrew Novak um he’s down to 75 to one now I I I like that down to 75 and um I’m a huge fan in his ability just in general on this golf
Course like I love the way that he’s hitting his irons he’s also finished top 10 here in his most recent appearance so he’s got some good he’s got some good vibes at this course as well to couple with the the recent form and the spike in performance in round ones absolutely
I’m glad once again glad we’re on the same page there I would also play it down to 75 um I’m gonna go a little bit longer now in the first round Le Market again I’m gonna go after Ryan Moore um long shot here 100 to one but he ranks
Fourth on tour this season and strokes gain on the approach and again I’m just been so big on the approach uh stats this week and it’s just like I’m you’re going to give me 1001 a guy who rites fourth on tour in that category I’m just
Going I’m going to take that as a flyer any day of the week can he produce across this kind of the same thing I was just saying with Novak too can he produce across all four days I don’t know I trust more a lot more on Thursday
Than I do on Sunday though and that’s for sure so at 1001 I think there’s worse Flyers to make and he’s also he’s played well here previously he’s made the weekend of five of his six career appearances at TBC San Antonio he boasts three top to 10 finish this year over
That stretch and it makes sense again this like what I was talking about Conor approach guys who are so heavy in their game or approach dependent in their game this is the course for them and it has been for Connors and it has been for
Ryan Moore so if you’re going to give me 100 to one for him leave lead after Thursday why not uh love Ryan Moore uh he’s been kind to me this season uh as well and I love the way that he’s hitting the ball right
Now so I like Ry in the hot hand there um I’m going to give us one more first round leader play uh and go with Rory mroy 20 to1 um I like playing on some of the better players in in the field in the first round later Market on occasion
Because you’re going to get much better odds uh Rory’s done this a couple times this year where he’s gotten off to a massively hot start he did it at Pebble Beach he did it at the Players Championship and then he tends to fade fairly significantly uh over the weekend
Um we know that his mind’s on Augusta I don’t expect Rory to um seriously contend this week I don’t expect him to use a lot of his energy seriously contending to win this golf tournament on Sunday um I I feel like a way more likely outcome for this week for Rory is
Like get off to a really hot start show everyone show yourself that you can still do it and then not exp expend too much energy um and kind of Fade Into like a nice t24 over the weekend um I I think he’s going to continue to get off to a hot
Start and make some noise and we’re all gonna lose our mind over Rory winning the Masters after he shoots a a 64 on Thursday and then he’s probably going to do what Rory does at a lot of these tournaments which is um slowly fade down the leaderboard as the week progresses
But I think 20 to1 on Rory first round later is a way better bet than nine to one on him to win the tournament yeah I I like that and it’s funny because I was debating literally him in the first- round leader Market as well I didn’t
Pull the trigger but it does make sense like I feel like he needs to see a low week he needs to see a week scoring a lot of birdies and I think that’s honestly what the only reason he’s even here this week um but yeah I like that
Play a lot and then for my final first round leader play I’m going Ben Martin this is 175 to one so just little play here super long shot but it I kind of it’s the trend I’ve been talking about with Ryan Moore and Novak is that I
Don’t think that Martin can hold this field for over a four day sample size that would be very very shocking or Ben Martin sorry I don’t think Ben Martin can hold this uh field down for a four day sample size but I think he has the tools to maybe get hot enough on
Thursday where he can sneak away with maybe a T1 or even just solo lead his irons have been good this season he ranks 20th on tour and strokes G on the approach he finished 10th here last year so he he has proven that he can score here and again you talked about Novak
How there are guys that score better earlier in the week than later in the week which I mean makes sense it’s a tough game when you you got a close and the pressure is higher the shots are harder to make right but for Ben Martin that’s exactly been the case for him for
Pretty much the last six years at this point um we he can get off to a hot start but can he close I don’t think so but we saw him last year he was tied for the first round lead at last year’s K pun count championship and then he
Didn’t close out the tournament that’s not a great comparison to this week but just shows that he can he does have the tools to score and get a lead at some point I don’t think you can do it over 4 days but 175 to1 I’ve seen crazier things happen especially on this tour
Season so that’s my final play of the week is Ben Martin first round leader I am going to finish us off in the top 40 Market with Bud colie plus 125 I really like the way that colie’s playing right now um he’s starting to hit his irons
Really well I know he finished 45th last week in Houston but he gained 4.5 on approach he’s driving the ball in play he’s had a lot of his toric success in Texas uh as well back kind of in the mid 2010s before he he had a bit of an
Absence and battled some injuries but he’s back now in 2024 playing some really good golf and you know I still think you might be able to be pretty early on the bud coli Renaissance so I think at plus 125 to finish in the top
40 Market um that is a great way to gain some exposure on a player uh with some pretty appetizing odds this week that I think is only going to continue to raise in our estimation and should always always be the mix for us anytime we are
In Texas um and that’ll do it for our Best Bets episode for the Valero Texas open gosh just reading through last week’s out line here we were so close on that Scotty Sheffer 22 to1 to win in a playoff that huh but but I can’t even
Get mad at it because I’m reading at it right now that I also gave out joerger 45 to1 so I mean I’m that’s probably ended up being more profitable for the listeners but the Sheffer playoff would have been cool because I just thought that was such a bad number where you’re
Betting Sheffer two to one to win the tournament but like chances are you know he’s going to be there’s other guys going to be in the mech and so many of these come down to the final moment if you get him in the playoff with joerger
What are his odds like minus 200us 225 175 yeah yeah something like that um so hopefully we can keep it going this week coming off the Jagger win before we get out of here a final reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by
Bet 365 as a uh bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t
Start there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky
Gambling problem called 1-800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our action expert Spencer agar and Nick brwi return with host to aruo tomorrow for the Valero Texas open betting preview right here on the linkx and loocks podcast so for Tony Sor I’m your host
Andy lack and we will see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast for the Masters presented by bet 365
