Best Ball Rankings Cross Comparison w/ Justin Herzig

Pat is joined by Justin Herzig of ETR to discuss the biggest difference between the LegUp and ETR best ball rankings. They dive into Travis Kelce, Nick Chubb, the Titans offense, and more.

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00:00 – Intro
01:54 – Kerrane is already high on Trey Benson but Establish the Run seems to be even higher.
07:25 – Looking at Diontae Johnson, Adonai Mitchell, and Xavier Worthy.
12:09 – Will the Buccaneers look to replace Rachaad White in the draft?
18:20 – Dissecting all the changes the Titans made for the 2024 season
30:54 – Is Travis Kelce worth it if the Chiefs are saving him for the playoffs?
39:20 – How much of a steal is Mark Andrews in the 5th round?
41:03 – Is Quentin Johnston the next Davante Adams or the next Jalen Reagor?
49:35 – What Keenan Allen moving to the Bears means for him and DJ Moore
54:12 – Is Christian Kirk the clear cut WR1 in Jacksonville?
56:07 – What to think of the Steelers RB with Arthur Smith as OC.
58:05 – How high does Josh Jacobs have to rise before Herzig and Kerrane are both out?
1:04:17 – Approaching the Vikings and Browns with the TJ Hockenson and Nick Chubb injuries
1:13:25 – Looking at Devin Singletary’s role on the Giants
1:16:43 – How quickly does the best ball market react to news?
1:19:12 – Herzig is on the clock in how many Rookie and Sophomore drafts?

#nfldraft #underdog #bestball

Welcome to Legendary upside podcast my name is Pat rain uh you can follow my content at legendary upside.com with me today and rearing to go Justin herig of established run how’s it going dude fantastic uh we were just talking about literally nothing and I was gonna jump in and just continue that

Conversation yeah we’re talking about corporate buzzwords um but yeah we’re we’re gonna talk on this podcast about the beste ball rankings that Justin has over established to run we have over at legendary upside some of the biggest differences between those sounds like you guys are going to be

Tweaking the rankings going forward a little bit to incorporate some more of the the projection based stuff is that is that right that’s right yeah so basically between one the big board was announced which was ridiculously before the Super Bowl even like that’s when we have to give our protections team a

Little bit of a break and you know we’re basically drafting off nothing and so that’s one it’s like okay Justin you’re going to take the lead on these rankings obviously you still get input from the rest the team but it’s more of as I’m drafting throughout the big board and

Those contests we make those adjustments and that’s basically like that hey that’s how we got to he starting this week if not Monday Tuesday like early this week you’re going to have a kind of Refresh on the ETR rankings and those are the ones that Leone and Jack and the

Whole you know and dank and this entire establish run team is doing more from a kind of hey top down or Bottoms Up analysis from a projection standpoint um and that’s where the whole team still has input and hey we just brought deel on he’s already jumping in as well um

But that’s where it’s more kind of a process face with the numbers awesome um yeah I’ll be curious to see what kind of changes and get kind of get your thoughts on where you think maybe some of those changes might occur but we’re going to we’re going to talk

About some of the biggest differences that we have uh between the ranks currently let’s start with um Trey Benson who some of these I think are a little bit a a little bit of a difference in sort of the way we’re like putting our rankings out there

Because Trey Benson I Am lower than you on Trey Benson which I find annoying because I like Trey Benson a lot um and it’s really a matter of I’m only 9.5 spots ahead of ADP on Trey Benson um and so the the problem or the reason that I’m behind you is not

That I’m low on Trey Benson it’s that I’m sort of capping how far above 8p uh I’m letting players go in the ranks you guys are at 93 so we’re both actually pretty bullish on Trey Benson who has an ADP of 110 um what are your thoughts just generally because there’s

A few of these differences stem from that what are your thoughts on like are you taking Trey Benson at like 93 a couple rounds ahead of ADP I mean if you want to build up a position on them I think that’s reasonable in that part of the draft because you will find people

That just reach ahead of ADP on him but just general your general thoughts in this part of the season on like kind of those bigger reaches yeah I mean I’m more willing to be higher exposed to a player in the Big Board before the actual NFL draft because I think the

Rankings are not or the ADP is not nearly as efficient as what we’re going to get come Summer come August and so if you want to take stands on guys especially ones where I think there are just silly upside especially for rookies I’m fine with saying Hey I’m willing to

Go up to 30 maybe even higher percent of your exposure on a certain player and sometimes that that does mean actually taking them around or so early now usually me I’m still like kind of that more value based drafter so I still am overweight on some of my players I think

My highest exposure I showed this on Twitter a little ago was like around the 30% maybe low 30s on some um so rarely I’m going to go more than around before but I think the ranks need to be a little more true at least that’s the way

I’m trying to do it to say like hey I would be willing to go stand on you know like for this and it’s interesting because when we talk about rookie running backs going into this you know last couple months I was low on them all I didn’t think that we had any real

Stellar standouts but as we saw what happened with free agency and some of the great landing spots available Dallas Chargers maybe Vegas some of these guys are going to get great spots and I do think as you would say like some of these rookies actually do have potentially those kind of legendary

Breakout Seasons if not even the whole season just like that second half that we really care about I agree with you yeah I like Trey Benson a lot I’ve been getting more bullish on him over time I think the combine you know he was really athletic 9.7 Ras score there um that’s

Obviously nice he’s not the only guy that was athletic but when you start to think about Trey Benson’s profile where he’s like he showed some versatility as a receiver he had really nice Breakaway numbers he was a good tackle breaker he was a committee back though and so it’s

Like those backs I think are like especially um it’s especially important to know where they’re going to go in the draft because like we’ve seen committee backs come in and be like pretty awesome like my sanders was was a committee back uh Melvin Gordon was was not like a

Super Workhorse in college so if you get and I mean Melvin Gordon though was a first round pick so you know it’s it’s kind of like if a guy is a first round pick or early second round pick I don’t care that much that he was a committee

Back because he’s going to get handed a job and if he’s good and he gets handed a job then he’ll be he’ll be a good fantasy back if he’s you know just good and he’s behind an entrenched starter and has to make his way up through the

Depth chart then I start to get a little bit concerned about the fact that he was a committee back in college and maybe he doesn’t maybe doesn’t displace Somebody But as Benson’s ADP or as draft Capital starts to look a little bit more like second round as opposed to Third I I am

I’m excited about him so I am going to be annoyed if if the ETR drafters are sniping me on Benson when I’m when I’m almost 10 picks ahead of ADP here I feel that I feel that I think we also need to make note if you’re a running back draft

In the second round right now that’s like top like that’s like first half of first round draft Capital when Melvin Gordon was drafted and I think teams are kind of realizing that like yes you still have the elite prospects like the bean of last year and I think even when

Zeke was drafted like those were like we knew this is going to be a stellar but the guys that are being drafted in that second third round I don’t think of them as second third round draft capital from that 5 10 years back so I think when we

Are doing kind of comparatives SS from like uh hey how much are they actually investing in these running backs we should think of that second round being like that’s a ton um and when we then think of the spot it’s like all right let’s use the Chargers yeah you put Trey

Benson up against Gus Edwards like yeah Gus Edwards is going to start the starter or whatever and like you know maybe cut into them early but I have no confidence that someone like Trey Benson his athletic profile even if you say like okay he’s gonna only take like 60% that’s still

Phenomenal from like an actual today’s NFL and we’re expecting that upside coming later on in the year for sure um let’s talk about a guy that you’re quite a bit bullish on than me and I’m not and I’m even with ADP so this isn’t like a philosophical thing this is I you you

Like this guy more than me um and it’s Deontay Johnson so Deontay Johnson and I know Ben gret really likes Deontay Johnson I’m starting to feel like I’m like missing the party here a little bit um I have him at 80 he’s got an 0p of

79.4 so rated at 80P but you’re quite a bit more bullish on Deontay Johnson having him at 69 so you know you’re like a round ahead of ADP uh I’ve had trouble getting excited just cuz like there are other guys there they could add somebody but you’re

What’s the bull case here this is an interesting part of the draft too where I just care about I prefer Deontay Johnson before that big chunk where you drop down to like Romeo dobs and such and between there all those running backs and tight ends and so when I just

Was drafting I was like you know what I’d rather take Deontay Johnson I think there is that bull case of he’s just a more athletic better football player than what Adam thielen was last year we knew that the touchdown n from two years ago we proved that last year that was

Fluky he actually can play there um and so I see it as I think there’s a bull case on a bad team you bring in Dave Canalis we’ve seen what he said did with Gino with Baker last year and then we look at the actual draft aspects and if

You do a 2v2 of okay grab a running back there and then a wide receiver two rounds later versus a wide receiver there and a running back two rounds later those running backs are pretty even it’s pretty flat in my mind in like that what are we talking

Pick5 but I don’t think it’s flat from a wide receiver standpoint I think Deontay versus Romeo dobs is a substantial Chunk from a median and upside projection a really median projection and maybe their upsides are similar but like dos’ chance of hitting it with other three out

Receivers is less are you not is into the Texas uh rookies ad Mitchell and Xavier worthy because those are those are kind of the guys I I’m building a lot where I have four receivers up to this point and then I’ll grab one of these wide receivers fairly

Frequently I I like the wide receivers I will be you know fully transparent that rookie wide receivers I am leaning the most on other people for takes at this spot and then we also have like ah if you can get yourself into the end of the

First round that’s huge if you end up getting one of the early second like oh it’s just so much worse when you look at the Landing spots right now like you some of these are still going to look great but I mean this year with rookies

Compared to the past couple years we are actually and you’re probably to blame um drafting them at their upside like their upside is baked at their current price I’m trying we’re still gonna get some that are great hits but like yeah I still like the rookies the rookie wide

Receivers but like this is the first year that it’s not like oh my God I love them because they are actually decently priced like Josh DS is right there he’s also a really good wide receiver we saw it yeah Anthony Richardson I don’t like the wide receiver blah blah blah but

Like yeah yeah I I do think that ad Mitchell Xavier worthy um as you go down Troy Franklin a little bit although his chances of going round one have definitely dropped um but those two guys do kind of stand out as like I mean you’re paying a lot more for Brian

Thomas you know and Brian Thomas partly makes sense because Brian Thomas is definitely going in the first round but he’s got some red flags and ad Mitchell also has I think worse red flags but he’s super athletic big and probably going in the first round as well so

Mitchell’s someone like it’s tough for me to get like super excited but I am trying to click him because I actually think he’s underpriced if he ends up like he’s I mean if you want to say who’s the most likely to like [ __ ] an incredible landing spot it’s probably ad

Mitchell at this point because I think he goes in the first round given the size athleticism combo but the end of the first round where all the best landing spots are yeah and then you’re like Buffalo and you’re like whoa okay now we yeah no I’m all on board I’m not

Against those guys at all I think I’m probably it’s probably like if you I don’t know if we look at the rounds but I’m probably like right at or just behind mentally I think I’m probably like a half round behind them but that’s just because they just keep moving up

And I can’t chasing right like I have been above all these guys and now it’s like every two days that yeah yeah let me uh here I’m going to share you put this together of guys we’re the most different on is there anyone you want to talk about um let’s

See I mean so for the we’ll start with the ones that I’m most Bush because the ones that you’re most Bush on I think it’s really interesting because you’ve got both the Tennessee running backs both the Chicago wide receivers i’ would love to hear those takes there because I

Think that’s probably more of a macro team aspect um but like I don’t know I think Rashad White’s probably one of the most interesting ones here where at the beginning of the offseason I was like the rad white is way too expensive uh he was actually going around like pick 0p

30 32 or something um but if you look at how the offseason played out like this actually looks really good for him there’s not going to be any free agent signing that goes in there to take any work the Bucks have a lot of needs especially on defense I don’t expect

Them to be drafting another running back and if so it’s probably a late one so I think this is one where probably the general hate had gone too far that was part of the hate for rad white which like things actually worked out pretty

Well for him and if you look at from a success rate last year I think he was rb7 and that was after like three of his first six weeks he had like fewer than six fantasy points so he had that slow start and then they actually started

Using him more as that Workhorse so I think he’s one where he’s in that like prototypical you know RB Dead Zone but everything that we’ve seen played out for this year so far and what that team is going to look like I think that’s actually like turning into a little bit

Of a I don’t know I’m still at ADP but yeah yeah I’ve still Rashad White’s like he just just feels like a bet on the status quo because so he had a by NFL next gen he had a 37% success rate which is not good it’s not like horrendous

Horrendous but um he was behind DeAndre Swift by by a by 0.1% so you know he was behind s Barkley ROM Andre Stevenson um he was just just above Tony Pard and Travis etn um and they had minus 110 rush yards overe expected so he was a pretty inefficient Runner actually

That’s the lowest rush yards ere expected of any running back last season part of it is like you get penalized for volume because it’s a you know if you’re accumulating negative rush yards overexp expected on a per touch basis you get a bunch of touches you’re going to finish

Last um which is what happened with him he’s a decent receiver but like bad rusher like running it back and hope it kind of plays out again like it did last year I’m just like that just makes nervous it just makes me nervous every time and I would be willing to kind of

Come up on him if he if he survives the draft without like uh like honestly even an audri ese would make me nervous about you know fourth round audri ese uh you know fourth round brillan Allen uh makes me like really nervous about richad white you know and I guess the other

Part of it for me is that in this part of the draft I’m usually taking I mean of all these players I’m probably taking like Brian Thomas the most because I’m because all these guys are gone and it’s just like one wide receiver left and I’m worried

About uh only having like two wide receivers through three rounds or something so I have to take the receiver there I guess what I’m trying to say is that if I’m taking a detour Rashad white isn’t an especially appealing DeTour for me because I I could definitely see him

Kind of paying off this price tag pretty easily kind of just does what he does did last year which is worth more than this price tag but I don’t know he has a lot more upside and I’m just worried about how good he is as a rusher yeah no

I think that’s all completely fair and I think from a draft macro standpoint um so much of like who I’m actually drafting in this fourth fifth round matters on who I draft in the first and second because like this year it already feels so much like the wide receiver

Drop off hits hard and like the sixth round other than the rookies and I think we need to contextualize when we dve because there’s been one school of thought that I’ve seen is it’s like hey it’s okay to kind of forego some wide receivers early because there’s so many

Great wide receiver rookies and I think we need to cool that thought process a little because when we think about the wide receiver rookies one or two like somebody hit really hard and that’s why we love them because individually there’s huge upside but if you were

Really counting on just a slew of these kind of rookie wide receivers receivers and you forgo the early studs these Elite ones yes you might still hit on one or so but like a lot of these are still going to turn out to underperform and that’s just baked in especially at

Their current ADP um so for me like I’ve been just going so heavy in these wide receivers but as you’re saying like if I do go three four wide receivers in the first and then I’m seeing that Rashad white in the you know beginning of the

Fifth or so and of the fourth that’s when I’m like okay I’m okay if this is my running back one and this is my detour there um but yeah it’s also he was going and we’re talking big board here he was going 30 32 34 for so long

So you are getting that kind of positional value aspect for the draft right yeah that’s that’s a good point is that he was going quite a bit more expensive and now you’re getting a discount um I tend to take like The Detour a little earlier with like a

James Cook or Josh Jacobs or I’ll take it with like a Mixon in the sixth or I’ll just punt it and go with I mean my guy Jaylen Warren I’m take get a ton of warrant but like Montgomery is a pretty we’re behind ADP but like he’s a pretty

Good rb1 um in a zero like a true zero running back build um so that’s just when you get to those 70s that’s when RB feels great there are so many guys there that historically would have been fourth fifth rounders um and like they have legitimate upside um yeah but if we do

Want to talk about that range where it’s the opposite where you’re bullish I’d love to hear the kind of Tennessee case because for me initially when I saw Paul going to Tennessee I liked it a lot because I know my intuition maybe it was wish casting but like I thought Tony

Paul was going to be kind of the guy there and Tai would just kind of spell him um but the more I’m hearing it sounds like they’re going to be interchangeable those quotes just came out in the past day uh their win total is five and a half with I think juice on

The under so like I’m scared of the Tennessee but you seem a little more bullish in general for me yeah I am I think it’s that I think it’s just volume that’s why um the big thing for me is like you’re going from this like Mike Vel it wasn’t fully like Arthur Smith

Ified you know they they weren’t in that tier of of passing offense but I think that we’re now looking at a team that that looks like they’re trying to figure out what they have in Levis right that’s why you bring in Calvin Ridley um that’s

Why you bring in like a a Tony Pard who you know is not Pard is more of like a playmaker than he is like a Workhorse battering ram so I’m seeing the that team as one that’s like let’s put some weapons around will Levis and let’s see

What we have and odds are they’re gonna move on after the year but I think it could be like they could be kind of a a more of like a fun bad team um than you know we’re used to with them I think you know with Pard I’m a

Little behind ADP but I’m not out with Spears uh basically even with ADP so these are not guys that I have a big stance on but I think they’re both fine as you’re betting on this offense to be you know obviously you’re only taking one of them

So I kind of view it as a similar thing to like the Bengals where like I’m taking Zach moss and I’m taking Chase Brown I understand that one of these guys will fail and one of these guys will hit as my hope like that is when

I’m taking both I’m hoping one is a hole in my portfolio and one is a big hit in my portfolio it’s possible they cannibalize each other all season but I think that Spears and Pard are both intriguing for different reasons I’m mixing both in um Spears is actually the

Guy that I probably need to make more of an effort to get more of since he’s since he’s fall I thought he was going to fall further than he did and I basically had to have the conversation with myself of like am I gonna be out on

Spears now and I decided like I I do want to get some yeah I think the Cy versus Tennessee comparison is really interesting and so for me with Tennessee I think that as when that five and a half win total a much worse team a bad offensive line that is getting a little

Better they’ve made some strong signings but still like not a great offensive line and the coaching makes it sound like these are going to be interchangeable they’re both going to have roles it’s unlikely barring an injury one separates when I compare to Cincinnati I have no idea who’s G to be

In what role between you know moss and Chase brown but it’s a great offense we know how valuable that running back role is and I think there’s actually a better chance that one of those two emerges as the guy in ciny where I don’t foresee that in Tennessee so when I’m comparing

Those I’d much rather kind of I think like start taking take more takes on the chase Brown the Zach Moss the major difference here is we believe I I believe that Pard and Tai are both probably better backs than Chase Brown and Zack Moss but like it’s two things

It’s it’s it’s that but also Tai was what a third round pick last year and they just signed Pard so they’re done they’re not bringing in somebody that’s right Bengals made draft somewhere Bengals could draft somebody that’s the that’s I am a little nervous about a shoe dropping like they could like they

Could draft somebody they could bring in a Jonathan Brooks you know they could bring in who that wouldn’t be a total disaster because he’s not going to start probably in the early part of the season but they could bring in a Trey Benson a Jaylen Wright where you’re like I think

He’s immediately the best back in this in this backfield right now so I but I I’m in on this backfield but I think that would be my guess is that if they they both survive this that cha that chase Brown and Zach Moss move up and yeah one of them is challenging Spears

At least yeah yeah Jonathan Brooks would actually be interesting just because they’re like hey we’re just going to red shirt you this first year they must it would have to be a really bullish kind of uh Talent evaluation and you’re thinking for years two to four any of

The other high draft Capital ones like Zach Moss at $8 million two years like that’s not the cheapest when you do like if they’re bringing oneye deal though I think they can get out completely after this season okay yeah I mean so it’s possible yeah but I guess I’m not crazy

Crazy bullish them but I think like when I’m evaluating upside scenarios that’s just where I think like my head is around like the ciny versus the Tennessee they save three and a half million by cutting him after the year eat 1.5 for doing that so that’s you can

Do that if you want it’s whatever yeah yeah it would be it’s I could see them drafting some I kind of hope they don’t because I think both moss and Chase Brown are interesting but um the guy that I think I’m like legitimately different uh yeah yeah the guy I’m like

Legitimately different on in Tennessee is is Hopkins I’m like excited about Hopkins I think Hopkins is still good I don’t think Calvin Ridley is very good um you know he was good but then he took what like year and a half off and came back and wasn’t that great he’s the guy

Who’s getting the quarterback downgrade you know Hopkins was producing efficiently with Will Levis last year there’s some uh you know more Target competition from Ridley but like there was Zero it’s not the worst thing in the world to go from nobody unfortunately you know I wish trayon Burks was was

Pulling his way a little bit more but there was like no target competition it’s like Nick Westbrook a and stuff they don’t really even have a tight end they throw to all that much and then you bring in Calvin Ridley I’m thinking that Hopkins still looks like the at least

One a and potentially clear one on an offense that should throw more than it did last year so My thinking is like yet more Target competition but more volume Hopkins is still good I mean so you talk so for the for the Calvin Ridley one his ADP has dropped like three picks since

Like it it’s probably the second most shocking of the ADP is behind like the saquon and what happened with that saquon situation um we agree we’re both behind ADP on Calin Ridley uh I’m I’m even I’m closer to you and it’s the ADP uh B in here is the we’re we’re like in

Total agreement on Calvin Ridley so I I don’t understand that at all but you’re you’re more nervous like you have Ridley ahead of Hopkins I moved him I moved him back so again the Ridley ahead of Hopkins is still like there’s an 80 P

You know in ADP input to that and if you were getting you know people were spending 57 so if we’re getting him at 81 like it’s yeah uh for the Hopkins one like I get it when we I have a feeling when we get that the more projections

Out there it’s going to be a little more bullish on him but it’s an age 32 wide receiver that just lost substantial volume to Calvin Ridley it’s still will Lis again I’m still not bullish at all on this Tennessee team um and like what is the breakout World here like

Everything was going is like the perfect scenario for DeAndre Hopkins last year except maybe this year will Lis could be better or something and like I don’t and they didn’t pass that much you know yeah and so maybe they pass more but then they brought in po I don’t know but like

For me for you to tell me what the story is for Hopkins to have this huge breakout like it’s got to be that’s a that’s a parlay and a half I’m no I agree that’s not what I’m looking for what I like about Hopkins it like I’m

Taking a lot of Christian Kirk and Kirk ATR don’t even start there oh yeah okay well like what’s Christian Kirk’s Mega breakout it’s it doesn’t exist he’s a slot receiver on a good not Elite offense you know he’s they’re probably gonna bring in someone else in the draft

It’s a deep draft it’s not that you’re not betting on Kirk because he’s going to like explode this year you’re betting on him because you’re getting like prod that you usually pay like a third round price tag for in the fifth or sixth round and that’s kind of how I feel

About Hopkins where it’s like he’s kind of like a fourth round type of production value that I’m getting in like the sixth round when I [ __ ] need that wide receiver like man do I need that wide receiver in the sixth round like he allows me to take a Kiren

Williams right or someone it’s usually on the back half of the board and but he allows me that detour he allows me to take the elite tight end which I am which I am taking you we we we’ll talk about Travis Kelce soon I’m taking a lot

Of Mark Andrews I’m taking a lot of Travis Kelce I’m taking a lot of the other I mean the thing to me is that at tight end the top two guys are really underpriced and then everyone else is also well priced so I’m like trying to

Take a lot of those tight ends also tight end dries up and it’s like a wasteland late in the draft so I want to get it taken care of early and Hopkins is like one of those guys who’s just been someone where I’m like yes you’re

Not going to crush it but you had 2.09 yards per hour run last year playing with Ryan tanah Hill and will Levis you have a an offensive uh a design that’s coming in you know you’re coming from the Bengals it should be a little bit well-designed they had Jake Browning you

Know looking efficient here they I don’t think this gonna be like a disastrously inefficient passing game now I’m actually thinking it’ll be more efficient and I’m thinking I’m getting more volume as we move from you know the the Mike Vel coaching tree to the Bengals coaching tree so

That’s kind of my thoughts where and I’m just we’re neither of us is afraid of Ridley you know that’s the that’s probably the big point of failure is that Ridley’s actually the guy there um but even in that role I think Hopkins probably gets some some deep threat

Stuff going on and maybe I get bailed out by a spike week at the right time yeah I do feel like there the Ridley unknown does eat into hopkins’s safe scenario and so that’s true if we accept that Hopkins lacks that upside that I’m looking for which yes you’re right if

You’re drafting him at 75 or whatever it is that’s his ADP like he doesn’t have to have top five wide receiver upside but I do think that upside is capped from not only the age aspect the addition of Calvin Ridley and such he’s just not as safe as then you’re hoping

For if we’re playing for that median outcome of a round or two value maybe that’s not actually that safe because he is that aging wide receiver and they brought in Calvin Ridley and spent bukus of money on Calvin Ridley too so even though I’m not bullish on Calvin Ridley

I do feel I do still feel that thorn in the Hopkins scenario that that’s a good point I mean if you’re if you’re going for safety then he’s maybe not yeah he’s not super safe it’s just he was good enough last year like he had a I think

Let me pull up his open score that might be the last two years combined um he was still playing next to tayum burs like I know his yards per route one was very high I think you said it was over two but there was no target competition either that’s true that’s definitely

True yeah um and let me pull up his open Score Hopkins was at uh God he had an 82 open score last year which was behind Keenan Allen CD lamb khif Raymond somehow T Tyreek Hill Garrett Wilson so maybe he’s the second framing what the heck’s going on in here

But um most of those names are pretty good yeah yeah I guess like like the the thing about Hopkins is that you’re risking catastrophic failure like if he doesn’t have it anymore it it’s GNA go like that’s the way like age curves tend to work right

It’s not that guys like just kind of come on down slowly like they hit a wall he’s 32 he could hit that wall Calvin Ridley’s there to scoop up the targets and all of a sudden he’s just like useless that’s a risk but he was he was legitimately really good last year got

Open was efficient so I’m just like kind of betting that if it’s Hopkins from last year versus Ridley I think he smokes him um but you’re right I’m probably overemphasizing the floor given that we’re talking about a 32 wide 32y old wide receiver playing with Will Lis um let’s talk Kelsey another another

Old guy that I like um I’m excited for this one yeah I don’t okay I get if I was like G to say Pat you’re too high on Kelsey it would be they’re they’re likely to want to save him for the end of next year too so

You know he’s like he’s old and you’re sacrificing the end of the season potentially which is the not something we want to do in the in these tournaments so let me tell you a story story of Travis Kelce 2023 first we go by the Numbers first half so games two

To eight he missed bre one weeks two to eight 31% targets per route run 27% of the teams targets 28% of the teams air yards love all that second half of the year 177% of the targets for Route run 18% of the targets 19% of the air yards

So that’s 45% fewer targets per R run 33% fewer targets 32% fewer air yards now one football season it’s a small sample so we’re like maybe that’s wonky because his career definitely leans far more towards that first half but then at the combine you’ve got Andy Reid in his

Interview uh I think it might have been with either Matthew or one of the under guys I get him confused who knows but he specifically was saying yes we planned to have you know Travis Kelce play less get more rest as we lead into the fantasy season because if you into the

Playoffs when the playoffs hit those numbers looked far more like the beginning that’s when we saw the Travis Kelsey of old so I believe that there is a coherent strategy by the Chiefs that when we get closer to the playoffs which you know they’re going to make they’re

Going to be a top like what you know three team in the NFL next year they’re not going to use Kelsey that much and you’re the one you know you say it so much we care about the playoffs we care about the fantasy playoffs right and everything you’re telling me for this

Aging tight end is that he’s not gonna play that much in our fantasy playoffs that’s the concern for sure I think there’s a few things about last year though that are interesting to note about the end of the season one is that they’re trying to work in Rashi rice at

That same point you’re seeing his routes really Spike over those final few weeks and he’s do doing some stuff over the middle of the field that’s similar to what kelse is doing so part of it is like if rice takes a step forward and he’s able to do

Some of the stuff that Kelsey’s doing throughout the whole year you know maybe there’s like less of an emphasis of like pulling Kelsey’s targets down at at that point specifically yeah or they just do it the whole year they just do well they do some of it the whole year sure but

Kelsey was out there in those weeks that we’re talking about kelse ran 40 routes in week 14 he ran 37 routes in week 15 he ran 48 routes in week 16 he dropped to 26 in week in week 17 so you know I’ve been told that’s all that matters

So that’s that’s not great but then in the playoffs he was at 39 23 39 48 so it’s actually like route wise route volume those last four weeks were pretty similar to the playoffs it’s just that he started to get used like Travis Kelce again obviously it’s going to really

Suck if he doesn’t get used um in those final four weeks like we’re like we’re used to and I do acknowledge that that is a risk but if the offense is is a little bit more firing on all cylinders they bring in Maris Brown I think they

Probably still add a rookie at some point and it’s like we’re it’s it’s elite tight end right at Elite tight end the whole thing the whole bet is this guy can do something and is a good bet to do something where you’re going to find Spike weeks at tight end but like

It’s hard and it’s not hard when you bet on the greatest receiving tight end of all time right so you’re getting this guy in like the third fourth round and often in the fourth who can do something in week 15 week 16 that would be awesome if it was week

17 but you you’re can do something where he’s the number one wide receiver on a Patrick Mahomes offense and it’s it’s less likely that he does that in that real money week than it has been in years past but we are getting a discount man we are this is a dude we’ve taken

Like the5 106 I am getting him at like the 405 this is a huge discount on a player who just LED his team to the Super Bowl as the number one wide receiver here I mean he finished the season including the playoffs with 2.02 yards per route

Run that’s higher than he had in 2021 that’s still an elite Mark like they you do have rest concerns but like the playoffs to me are bullish in that is Travis Kelce done was the question we were asking heading into the play rasid rice going ahead of him in playoff

Bestas ball and now I don’t think Travis Kelce is done at all I think there’s some management concerns and those management concerns are more likely to strike at the end of the season but like this is a volatile game and if you’re going to give me the guy who I

Think still the best bet at tight end in any given week in the fourth round I will draft him all right so two things there one agreed he’s on the field he was running the routes and if Andy Reid didn’t tell us this narrative if if this was just a fantasy football narrative

That we created in our bedrooms and our basements like then I agree with that yeah but it’s a lot more legit yeah like it just tells me this is what they plan to do they really didn’t want to throw him the ball they didn’t want him to get

Hurt and so that’s what we and and then playoffs come you know the real playoffs they’re like holy crap it worked out well we won the Super Bowl why would we do that any differently next year let’s make sure we have fully healthy clicking and all cylinders Travis Kelce in the

Playoffs when we don’t care about the last few games because we’ve already locked up our spot and we have Rashid rice who can play in the Middle Field and now we have Maris Brown who can actually play on the outside side we may even bring in another second round third

Round wide receiver who knows this all makes too much sense and then so that’s the Kelsey from a draft standpoint I’m all 100% aboard on Elite tight end especially this year I don’t understand why they’re at a discount for where they are but like can you can we talk can you

Just I need some I’m like I’m getting like the I’m taking crazy pills I’m I’m going to that level of this so can can you just tell me that you like Elite tight end because I’m feel like I’m losing my mind like this is it seems like like structurally the easiest thing

In the world right now just make sure you grab one of those guys as long as you don’t include Sam loraa um actually he’s the one I don’t really like at price as muche yeah Mark Andrews Trey McBride um there’s been some really interesting debates on the Trey McBride

Aspect within the ETR so that’s going to play out throughout the summer because there’s some strong voices but either way I think like the upsides there but like yeah Mark Andrews I think is my second highest owned tight end um and for that to happen at a player who’s

Getting in like what late four draft cost or something and so that’s where why am I taking Travis Kelce a round or two early or a round or so earlier when I’ve got Mark Andrews and I like Mark Andrews straight up from these arguments that I’m saying than Travis Kelce so

That’s why I’m just not taking Travis Kelce I also think there is a wide receiver mini tiar drop about where Kelce goes and then again verse like where the McBride and the Mark Andrews go so I’ve been taking my wide receivers in the third fourth and then I’m taking

My Mark Andrews Trey McBride in the fourth fifth that I completely agree with you on and I will often um like if I’m looking at Kelsey and I’m in a position where I think Andrews has a good chance to come back like if I’m in the middle of the

Fourth and I’ve got a decision between Kelsey and like uh let’s say I’ve got puka and I’m like you know what I’m GNA grab cup I’m G to miss out on Kelsey and what’s what’s gonna happen is I’m going to get Mark Andrews in the fifth and

Mark Andrews in the fifth is [ __ ] nuts I truly don’t understand how we are given this opportunity he’s the number one wide receiver on his team with tight end eligibility with a good quarterback and they they passed more uh I think you know Baltimore didn’t pass as much as we

Were hoping last year because their defense was Elite but like this I’m like more excited about Baltimore uh this year then you know like last year made me last year was sneaky bullish on B is what I’m trying to say like there’s if that defense takes a step back like this

Offense could be really really fun so that part I agree if you want to push Kel if you’re say I’m gonna pass on Kelsey in the fourth take K take Mark Andrews or Trey McBride or you know in the fifth or get one of these other tight ends in the six

Like yeah that sounds great that’s that’s but I’m I’m mixing in Kelsey for sure I have more Andrews than Kelce um but I’m definitely I do not want to be fading fourth round Kelce man after he just like crushed in the playoffs like good really good player available in the

Fourth rounds with a massive positional Advantage like it just I that’s like sometimes when I think through this stuff I’m like what am I gon to hate myself for later like what am I going be like how did I miss that and fourth round Kelce seems like

One I would have a hard time explaining to myself in December like no no there was a good reason I just can’t remember what it was yeah I mean uh keep it simple stupid all of that um I don’t like also I ended up with a lot of Lamar so like I’m grabbing

More Mark Andrews I haven’t gotten that much Patrick Mahomes he is at a price now that it actually is tolerable um but just from a structure like I have so much Jaylen her so much Mark I mean so much uh Lamar before um but yeah I I

Think we’ve gone through this topic um what about uh qu Johnston who I’m ready to give up on and you you seem to be you you tell me the Quenton Johnston I mean I what do you mean I have to tell you 25 PS behind

0p know it’s insane um okay I hate that I have to be like bullish on Quenton Johnston but like there’s literally no one else there I do not think Harbaugh’s gonna be taking a wide receiver with this fifth sixth whatever it is overall he should but you’re right it won’t

Right and so like they’re going to go into the season most likely with quen Johnston and Josh Palmer as their top two wide receivers and like is there a world where I’m getting this in the what 13th 14th round that they’re like you know what let’s

Find a way with our crazy first run game with some strong play action that we’re finding new ways to get Quenton Johnston the ball and like we’re actually designing him for his skill set which granted there’s not much skill set we learned but like for that little skill

Set of just putting the ball in his hand yeah you nearly need that craziness for a 14th rounder and you’re looking at the other guys maybe it’s 13th rounder that are going around him it’s just there’s got to be some level of upside that I’m still clinging on to that

Price yeah I that’s I just want to reset the BET basically and like give me a give me a wide receiver who I don’t know anything about and yeah you’re right like the Z Jones ahead of him yeah because Z Jones Z Jones is actually gonna be out there running routes all

Season and Quint Johnson’s probably getting benched yeah you sure Quinton Johnson has a 10% chance that’s probably has a five to 10 percent chance of finishing as like a top 15 top 20 wide receiver maybe I’m taking the under on five to 10 5% whatever it is’s I would

Give you five for sure okay a better chance of Quenton Johnston at least on an individual game there’s definitely quen Johnson has the individual game upside that someone like Z Jon or W I’ll move him ah head of Z I’ll put him one okay good we’re settled no um but I

Think I think that’s where it comes down to is just like there are so many ways that this pick fails but I’m okay with a 14th rounder failing because turns out they almost all fail you look at the 10th round last year and it was like

Literally all of them failed you so yeah I’m okay with the 14th round failing but I think Quenton Johnston being the number one wide receiver new coaching St like there’s just so many un knowns that are being com to play with the new coaching staff with no number one wide

Receiver that maybe just maybe they make him a focal part and he turns into the first round value that he actually was drafted for yeah I think so the thing with um Johnston in terms of his efficiency like when you are as inefficient as he was then I think it’s

Sort it’s not that you’re done you can come back from it we have seen you know Devonte Adams that’s that’s the guy who came back from like this level of inefficiency but it’s going to take a while is generally the way I view it like you’re you’ve got some work to do

And so kind of like Devonte Adams you know like Devonte Adams um was very inefficient his rookie season but they never they never hinted that like they were moving on they were just like yeah we’re gonna keep rolling this guy out there um he had 1.06 yards per outr run

As a rookie 1.08 in his his next uh next season um and they just like kept sticking with him 1.63 the following year 1.76 in year four was Elite in 2018 so he he hit Elite status in his Fifth Season he got to like mediocre to slash

I would say a little better than Med mediocre by his third season but he was bad in his first two years and Johnson was at 0.88 yards PR run so worse than anything Adams ever did I’m just like I think that he could be out there and run routes but it’s

Sort of like he’s graduating too like a Jones like you’re hoping like he’s out there he he turns in some occasional useful weeks for me but it’s hard for me to see how he goes from what he was last year to like a true breakout this year I

Think he maybe three four years down the line we’re like oh wow Johnson turned his career around he actually put something together but the problem with Johnson is that when we see these big first round bus like a Nelle Harry right like a Jaylen rager guys I liked

They can get passed by like anybody Travis fulam jacobe Meyers like these dudes that have no pedigree can come in and just like become the wide receiver one on a team this is a deep wide receiver class that’s got like you know like Brendan rice could play ahead of

Quinton Johnson like Jamari thrash I think could play ahead of Quinton like there’s a lot there’s a lot of guys so I agree with you that they’re they’re not going to spend the fifth pick on him or on a wide receiver but I just I don’t

Know I’m just it’s he just he was so bad that and and a boom bus Prospect coming in where I’m like okay I I thought you had a really low floor you showed me like an ultra low floor rookie season I just it’s like I just want you

To be someone else’s problem this year yeah and even if he does become the number one alpha in the Chargers offense how valuable actually is that with how much like Roman wils and Jim Harbaugh and all that I get it but like it’s in the 13th 14th round like that’s true I’m

Okay with that level of upside I’m only looking for that’s another thing I’m only looking for upside when we’re getting in the 13th 14th round right but I you know I’d rather take swings on devontes Walker or Ricky peol or whatever where you’re getting like this dude could be breaking out at

The end of the season in a real way um and yeah I just have a hard time say Jaylen pul goes right around there um what are your thoughts on the Chargers like because are like are we getting too wrapped up in The Narrative of they’re only gonna run the ball uh

But but it does feel like that right no I mean I I like DUS Edwards and I don’t think I’ve ever really said that before yeah I know I know no I think I think I think we’ve gotten to a place with a level up kind of information and

Analytics that when someone shows you who they are believe them and that’s exact what we’ve seen with both Roman and Harbaugh like it’s very clear and the trading away of Keenan Allen and the not uh you know resigning a big mic like it’s very clear what this team wants to

Be and I very very quickly dropped my ranking of Herbert um to like oh I think I was past yeah past Caleb uh was the big one I think and I still feel great about that like it’s I feel so bad I still have him ahead of Caleb but that’s

I have no issues with Caleb over him yeah I mean look at just the weapons look at like what their team is telling you they want to do and here this is a great segue let’s go into your Chicago wide receivers because you are more

Bullish than I am and I’ll give my at the very top I just think that like we’re not going to see the volume between Keenan and DJ Moore it’s there’s not great data on wide receivers excelling with a rookie quarterback uh I think Caleb I love from a fantasy

Perspective but I also think like a matter of that is coming on the ground and I think this they were pretty up in Pace last year I think they were like eighth or ninth or something in total snaps from last year um so it’s not like

I expect them to play a very slow game but usually what we see with a rookie QB is you do play a little you know safer and yeah the CJ Stroud from just last year was obviously in our heads that like there’s still substantial upside if

Can figure it out but that’s why I’m just a little lower on the Keenan and DJ but would love to hear because I could just be wrong um on this one well Moore is the one that I actually I’m behind ADP on him um but like the Marcus just

Refused to budge I was actually lower on more like more I think behind tank and sorry to interrupt but we’ve seen that all across the ADP they just people just aren’t budging they’re they’re take lucked and the Calvin Ridley won there’s so many of these player the Tai Spears

Where we’ll see when the big board comes out how much I mean when the BBM comes out but just because people have been drafting like if you were starting right now there’s no way DJ Moore would be being drafted where he is ahead of I don’t know is it uh both San Francisco

Wide receivers like yeah he’s got an 0p at 20 like he’s going yeah ahead of ahead of Drake London ahead of Brandon auk ahead of Devonte ahead of Devonte head of Debo head of chryst La tank Dell like I If you if it was Pat versus Pat like if I’m

The only I’m just drafting against myself in all of these I think I would slot him in ahead of Wadd um you know kind of like a mid to late third round type of pick but that was just not leading to any DJ Moore um so I was like you know at this

Point I I don’t want to I was taking a fair amount of him in the midc because I didn’t I didn’t anticipate them doing the Keenan thing um so I don’t need like a ton more but it’s I don’t want to be like full fading him now now but yeah I

Mean I generally agree like this is not I think more in particular Keenan Allen was still really good last year could end up being kind of a safety blanket guy for Caleb Williams Moore is kind of more the the inconsistent Spike week guy um and if you’re over paying for that by

Like close to a round I don’t I don’t love it so I’m I’m just not willing it to not have any because I think the Bears offense could be pretty fun one thing I’ll say about Caleb is um and and Keenan I’m I’m actually behind

ADP on as well I’m just not as not kind of a similar thing like I’m willing to mix him in but I I will say with Caleb like he wasn’t a particularly willing Scrambler from a clean pocket and that’s generally something I look at of like

All right are you actually going to be out there creating rushing yards or are you more of a guy who’s going to scramble around and then look to throw down field which is very much Caleb Williams that’s his whole thing I think the passing volume could be a little bit

Better than we might think because like Shane Waldron is he G to be designing like a lot of uh designed runs for Caleb maybe but that’s he doesn’t have like a history of that so it could be that I think around the goal line Caleb Williams will will add with his legs and

It’s I’m not saying Kaleb Williams going to be a zero with his legs this isn’t an anti- Caleb Williams thing this is a there might be more passing volume in Chicago than we’re anticipating thing yeah I think that’s fair uh for me with the Keenan Allen he just came from like the perfect

Situation like Justin Herbert I mean absolutely love that from a wide receiver standpoint Keenan Allen yes he’s efficient but he’s also a volume kind of wide receiver and his biggest days were when he was putting up like you know what uh nine catches 12 targets 110 yards like he’s definitely not your

Like touchdown threat uh and so when you’re moving into where he may be the number two wide receiver for kind of the first time in his career he could also be number one I don’t know I’m just you know it’s it’s unknown with J Moore

Um it’s it’s a little and I think are you taking like Christian Kirk ahead of him um it’s probably pretty close I think from like a projection standpoint like we’re gonna have Kirk ahead of him um from like a big board I maxed out my big

Board so I’m not doing any right now but I think from a game theory like this probably makes a little more sense to go Keenan now just because Christian C’s moving up but like I think yeah it’s really close and I don’t want to go to the Christian

KK earlier but like I do think Christian KK actually has a breakout season in him and uh yeah Leon’s Leone’s pushed this one into me very strong that like we don’t actually know what a breakout wide receiver looks like and I love how much Leon L Christian

Kirk and so like I’m willing to give him that and I I believe it now too um and I think the biggest thing for Christian Kirk this year is that he’s actually going to get to go back and the slot more often where he’s really thrived uh

Last year he was you know we especially early year he was taken out the field for three wide receiver sets but even when he was back on like still didn’t have that kind of role that we like uh and I think Trevor Lawrence like despite him you know not being the greatest

Actual QB I think he’s still very valuable for his wide receivers and D see Christian K is being a pure alfha in that offense yeah I don’t I’m not like in on that but I don’t want to I when I’m betting against that in August August I want to have a big bag

Of early Christian Cur like this is one thing I’ve tried to get better at in in baseball and fantasy in general is like I know I’m gonna be arguing with Leone about you know late third round Christian Kirk he’s like oh we just oh this is easy we just take just take

Christian Kirk at the turn like no we need to be hunting for breakouts he could be a breakout blah blah blah I don’t I’m willing and I’m honestly looking forward to that argument uh when we have it but I want to have that argument with a big bag a fifth round

Christian Kirk because like then I get to win like if Leone’s right and he breaks out and he is coming off a career high yards per route run and less Target competition and he has good quarterback play so like Leon’s gonna have a pretty

Decent case and what I what I want is to be taking him now we’re like I don’t I really never understood people were not I guess they were nervous Ridley would come back and everything but I think he’s better than Ridley so I wasn’t that nervous about it and yeah I mean if

You’re getting this is a a price tag where you’re not paying for a breakout you’re just paying for production and the production compared to you know I was trying to make that case with Hopkins but like I no push back that he is much safer than than DeAndre Hopkins

Like he’s the clear one even if they draft somebody he’s the one oh clearly yeah and I think even brle came back that was still going to be the case I looking now 19% of Christian Kirk my seventh highest old wide receiver um it might be higher than that actually let

Me see I think you need to get some props for when you do have these with the only like just have a bag and on the bag just P Christian Kirk and like just tell them no my bags are packed like you need to just my bags are back buddy yeah no I’m

A 20% Kirk so I’ve I’ve been taking a lot he’s he’s been kind of a cheat code as like you need you need a reliable volume wide receiver uh with h with with upside that you’re not going to feel great about when it’s being touted in

The third round in the summer that’s a perfect fifth round pick it’s an ideal fifth round pick um all right who else should we close out on here um oh well let’s talk I want to hear your thoughts on Jaylen Warren a guy that I’m Mega bullish on but you’re

Bullish on as well I’m gonna I’m gonna say that I was not bullish enough early on um the naagi getting more of the workflow towards the end of last year definitely concerned me um when you dive a little deeper I understand there’s arguments against it I’m mostly like I

Was very heavy on Nai early on and I didn’t I thought he was a screaming value and my shift moved more towards I just want to be very heavy on the Pittsburgh running game yeah in general um Mak sense the whole Arthur Smith aspect it’s funny you know us in the

Fantasy Community it’s all like oh Arthur Smith like you destroyed my London and my pits bags and like oh and my beon bags but really what he’s done is designed a very efficient Run game it was just very frustrating when his first round pick that beon was not getting all

The work and algir was getting some there too so like we leave this kind of bitter taste in our mouth with Arthur Smith but really there’s actually a very sweet taste for the overall just efficiency of the Run games under Arthur Smith so I want to have both of them I’m

Fully understanding that like if I made a if I was making a bet I think na outscores Jaylen next year I’d probably be willing to bet a decent amount on that but Jaylen definitely has the better better opportunity to become that kind of top five top 10 running back

Yeah I think that’s exactly right um and yeah do you how much you’re betting on Warren versus Naji probably says something about how much you you want to take those bigger swings versus Naji I mean naji’s a value man like I I have no issues with Naji at all and when I this

This is another thing too for me like when I am like Naji Harris a guy who I’ve like basically campaigned against his entire NFL career is now a value like he’s a he’s a value if I think he’s a value he’s a value I have him right at

ADP uh a little ahead actually but uh not not super ahead um the the guy that I’m most terrified of the ETR projections on is probably Josh Jacobs where I’m like dude pick 19 is that where Josh Jacobs is gonna go after Leone finishes his his his projection model like this is so

I’ve been trying to get ahead of that it’s kind of a a Kirk situation where feel even stronger I want to be ahead of the curve here but and in a way have we benefited here from the anchoring bias that you talked about earlier like Josh

Jacobs 100% he should be going in the you know in the middle of the third round at least right yeah he’s he’s gonna end the summer I think in the second round probably late second round and I think you were saying this on a recent podcast and you were like and at

That point I’m willing to be out on him and uh I kind of agree from a structural standpoint I don’t think it’s honestly going to be a bad pick if you to take him in the end of the second round um I think structurally that’s where I’m a

Little more hesitant to do it like I have him at 26 right now um and yeah it this anchoring is probably the number one lesson from this big board season is people are going to Anchor the ADP people are not going to react fast enough like I made a tweet

Earlier that I think the week after the free agency stuff went out like happened that was like the best time to draft because you can actually adapt to the news and people aren’t adapting to ADP but turns out even three weeks later people still haven’t really adapted like

Yeah we lost a little the value and such but right um yeah Josh Jacobs I guess what his ADP right now is 38.2 he’s legit G to be and the summer as as the late second round it’s wild I mean we um I mean this I was doing a

Draft with Pete over that and there’s a lot of wide receivers that go off the board in those rooms but we had J yeah yeah are you familiar with name hot dog hot dog meme yeah exactly um we were at the 311 and we grabbed a wide receiver not

Jacobs but the guy at the turn had two running backs so we’re like we’re going to push him around the turn and we and we grabbed him 402 and it’s like man that’s pretty good like he’s he’s gonna be out there like chugging along doing his thing but like it’s like one of

These things where he’s that used to cost you a a mid early to midc round pick and when it cost you a fourth round pick it’s it’s pretty cool like I’m into it at that price I think he was a one-w turn like this type of what he’s gonna get what

He’s gonna provide on a strong Green Bay offense with AJ Dylan is not posing much of a risk other than maybe you know getting just the hey breathers I think historically we would have drafted him as a onew 2019 onew turn completely agree yeah we were doing Joe Mixon there

For so long there were so long that it was just like that that same kind of idea of well we know Joe mixon’s on a strong team and he’s getting the entire backload and yeah um there were some years that we actually thought Joe Mixon had efficiency because that’s yeah Josh

Jacobs I don’t care and I think one of the so early in the summer I think one of the things we differed on the most is I was actually overweight on the guys like Josh Jacobs because early in this in this tournament yes yeah yeah that

You were you you won that that was that was a Miss for me in a way like that see that’s one do look back I’m like ah I should have seen that because the running back class the rookie class isn’t good and so it was actually predictable that these veterans would

Find good spots and I think if you looked at the contracts and the free agents we expected there to be a lot of movement and when I looked at a guy like Josh Jacobs I know that like from a fantasy Community we’re kind of down on him because efficiency but I think

Coaches really do value that dependability the he’s going to be out there he can give a large workload we know that that first round draft capital from before means that it’s just going to continue to get that positive feedback loop um and so I thought there was just minimal risk

From a landing spot for him and obviously this was probably like a top three four landing spot that we had no idea was even possible like didn’t even know Green Bay was gonna be this wasn’t even a landing spot right yeah Aaron Jones was good last year like it

Shouldn’t have been they had them under contract what what’s going on but there were also 20 minutes that we thought this was a horrible landing spot right right yeah it’s it’s a crazy to see the commitment and I guess I was getting some push back in the last part I did of

Like oh Josh Jacobs didn’t get as much money as people thought but it’s like he got enough and they cut Aaron Jones like this is like a 2024 commitment they really can’t get out of the deal in any way that makes sense next year so he’s job security wise they they bring back

AJ Dylan they’re not going to draft somebody and then you know maybe day three they will but that’s fine um he’s bringing back AJ Dylan helps it helps yeah it helps make that clear I’m happy about that because yes like you have a level of familiarity so like yes he’s

Going to play some and I’m okay with that he will probably get some of the between the 20s low value touches that if anything just keep Josh Jacobs kind of healthy what we’re not concerned about is them drafting someone like your audri or Ray Davis or whatever who oh

[ __ ] this guy actually has some burst maybe he actually can eat into it AJ Dylan he’s eating a lot of things but he’s not eating into Josh jles yeah and honestly it’s a little it could be like like if the Jets hadn’t brought in dvin cook last year that

Actually would have been worse for Bree hall because like izy Banda has a lot more juice than dvin cook did last year and when did we see that juice like in spurts at the very end of the season as the Jets were realizing it themselves so

Even if they bring in a talented rookie he’s going to have to pass AJ Dylan that’s going to take most of the Season like it’s not Jacobs that has to worry here so Dylan is is pretty bullish in the same way zamir white it helps that they brought in Madison I think let’s

Let’s close with Nick chub and Austin Eckler because or no sorry Nick chub and T.J Hockinson um hackinson we’re both out on he’s gonna miss a bunch of the year with this knee injury um you know I we have quarterback concerns there I think early on uh the

Vikings were just just w way too high in ADP Addison and Hockinson specifically um he is falling some but it’s still we’re still both and I’ve I’ve booted the ADP out of this on Hockinson like I just think the Market’s wrong on this not taking him you agree but chub is

Someone I am not I I feel very similarly on where I’m like this is a serious multi- ligament you know plus some other stuff I’m learning words when I when I find out what happened to to Nick chub’s kind of thing and I mean they bring in deont pman

Which I don’t think is like a huge deal but it’s a sign that you know they’re they’re making sure they have like an early down running back in the early part of the year I’m guessing he starts the year on pup uh I would I don’t know

If his ADP will fall to where I have him but it’s just hard for me to see like him him screaming up boards this summer if anything I could see him falling from here it’s not going to be when you see where he’s going to come out in the ETR ranks but

Um high or low uh closer to where I am um okay okay yeah so this is like I did not think I was ever going to be above ADP on Nick chop throughout the entire couple months that we’ve been drafting I’ve been substantially below ADP up

Until I feel like pretty recently um I ended up with only 4% of him because his ADP early on was like in the 60s or such um and I think now it’s a bit more kind of the H just gone too far the offseason actually with the signings I think

Turned out pretty well for me early on I was baking in there’s cut risk they may just get rid of them they may bring in another legitimate back but all they brought in was deont deforman so now it’s like Nick chub deont deforman my guess is deont deforman is there just

Until Nick chub kind of gets healthy and so the way that I see it is yes he’s a riskier bet because he’s always been so good on efficiency he hasn’t been that pass catcher um and are you going to lose that efficiency coming off the

Injury in his age 28 season I think 29 in December okay it counts as age 28 season right we usually say the year return I call it age 29 season I’m rounding up so like I see the risks there um but then when it came out like and this is

One where I was start like I stared to move him backwards but then I’m starting to hear these kind of murmur of where the rest of the ETR kind of is on him and when you actually do the numbers and again we’re baking the early Miss how

Many games that is I’m not sure if we’re looking at something like four that was kind of my initial estimate um this team I’m more bullish on in general and so I think like we still can see in the second half of next year a strong Nick

Chub um but I’m this isn’t something that I really want to go to bat on and I’m defaulting a little to what I’m hearing in my ear from some of the other people uh from like a projection standpoint okay I’m I would love to be not bearish on Nick chub it would be

Very fun if he comes back and crushes um it’s just H haven’t we been bearish on him like his entire career as like fantasy analyst because just being such an outlier like it’s tough I know but yeah no and you’re betting on like extreme efficiency because he’s never

Even been like a two down Workhorse he’s you know he gets spelled and then he doesn’t catch passes um and I mean I was in on Bree Hall last year coming off a knee tear but like it was a clean ACL and I think if there’s one thing that I think the

Market’s like and now I’m talking about the best ball Market but like you know I’d hear like oh gavon Williams at Bree Hall like what’s really the difference like the difference is called the MCL um and and you know one guy tore it and the other guy didn’t like

There’s I I’m I’m still pretty nervous about older running back coming off of like major you know multi- ligament tear um plus he had some additional damage so uh there was hope initially that he didn’t tear the ACL he did end up having to get a second surgery I don’t know

Like I guess what I would say if I end up coming up on Nick chub it would be because I’m hearing bullish stuff from the doctors on this that they’re they’re like because I don’t quite understand why Nick chub’s injury was still better than the worst case

Scenario at the time but I do get the sense that it was I know there was concerned about arterial damage at one point and that that didn’t occur as far as I know so so that’s really good but yeah I’m just I’m just nervous about that injury man it was it

Was this was not like a clean ACL tear type of thing that that you bounce right back from is is my concern yeah where he’s so I mean you have him at 120 I think it’s safe to say like where would you compare the running backs

Being drafted or if you want to say a little you know more around ADP and the 900 that have legendary upside compared to him because his legendary upside docks are coming off the injury his age and doesn’t have the pass catching is there still a pass for

Him where if we say the injury actually was you know is clean and his recovery is strong he’s not going to imic could catch more passes but just based off like his efficiency before on a strong offense like I I’m asking you do you do

You see that light or is that just that light’s completely turned off yeah I I mean I mean last year I didn’t think Nick chub had a ton of legendary upside when he was healthy in going in the second round um you know I was last year my recommendation was a

Fade on Nick chub which I think was as a best ball pick that was going to hurt as a redraft pick maybe a little bit more survivable um but best really expensive yeah right what I the guys that I’m looking at instead of chub right now are

Like Deon Singletary chuba hubard so I mean legendary upside like none zero but touches you know old school Dead Zone back guaranteed touches but available outside of the pick outside the top 100 picks like all right look I can work with that like I need that that’s that’s

Exactly what I’m looking for right now this part of the draft Nick chub could be that you know at the end of the SE and and it’s going to be back weighted to the end of the season and you know he’s you know he he Surprises

With how quickly he’s able to come back to full form and by the end of the year we’re getting some like really nice production out of Nick chub like hell yeah like that sounds awesome and you know he can definitely pay off like he can definitely beat these running backs

If that that shows up but like when he’s I don’t know what’s his ADP uh 90 about 90 yeah at 90 it’s him versus Conor who’s gonna like you know start the season he’s completely healthy like I got some age concerns about Conor same as I do chub but he’s healthy jante

Williams now two years off the injury moster just coming off all the touchdowns obviously they could draft somebody Swift I don’t love but like they just signed him to you know decent money he’s gonna start there like it’s like all these dudes are starting out of the gate and

They’re they’re not chub when he’s healthy but I think like if chub comes back and plays like moster did last year like that’s it’s probably pretty good yeah yeah obviously yeah that’d be amazing but but I can just bet on moster who could play like moster last

Year um yeah it’s not someone that I have a strong level of confidence in I think was so much unknown with that from the injury aspect but I do think it’s worth noting the the offseason was kind to him with the signings and maybe that should give us a little more confidence

That the Browns didn’t go out and bring in one of these so many backs that were available uh from a health you know to indicated Health standpoint raise him a little I hate being this low on him it’s not fun yeah mostly justifying my bear

St as opposed to one note on your guys that you’re talking about though I think you should have a substantially larger gap between single ter and truple hover um oh yeah because you’re you’re more bullish on him than me you you have at 94 I’m at 118 what why do you like

Single ter so much more yeah so I’m not gonna say like I think single der has this kind of great upside but if you look at that contract he is locked into the New York Giants for the next two years it’s a three-year contract but it’s really the two years they kind of

Locked him in um and if we kind of say from a drafts perspective they have so many other positions of need a lot of Defense offensive line not expecting to bring in kind of substantial back so I think we can have more confidence when we’re talking about like guar you know

Projectable volume for Devan single t as the running back in that offense obviously you have the connection with coaching staff as well chuba we’ve got new coaching staff yes like he got a lot of the work last year but I would not be shocked if they draft another running

Back I wouldn’t be shocked if just an unknown happens like there’s no there’s no linking that we’ve seen in the past to chuba as you do with the current staff um and like from a talent wise I don’t know def single tier might like both teams are have a very gonna be bad

Like I think there’s a lot of yeah like yuck but single Terry I think is so much more locked into that role and chuba it’s a lot of Yu with like oh there might also be some legit downside in his role yeah that’s fair I I think he’s a

Little protected by my sanders from them drafting someone with I mean but also it was such a disaster last year that they could just be like we don’t care we need to we need to save this quarterback we’re going to bring a running back we like

Um no I I think that’s pretty convincing I move single Terry up a bit um his whole he just exists to take over backfields like he’s it’s wild like he’s uh coaches love him they love him the second you give Deon single ter a snap like it’s over for the starter like he’s

He’s coming for that full Back Field and you know what maybe like Zach Moss may actually not have bet like we thought that Devon single ter was getting the Buffalo backfield because Zach Moss was like looking really bad but like maybe it’s actually Zach single I mean single ter was actually decent

Mosow overs at Indie looks better than we expected obviously they didn’t like Damen Pierce but like maybe also single ter he’s just so trustworthy for what the coaches want and um yeah so I just no not making an upside crazy big upside case there but if you have zero RB draft

Strategy and you need some early um just Dependable work until your guys break out I think single te is a fantastic and that’s why I’m above Market on him by like I think two rounds nice yeah I moved him up a little bit um to let’s see he comes out of 109

So isp’s 16 so I cuz yeah I I like seeing him there when you need that running back he’s he’s a nice he’s nice to see and I have no ADP baked in that one I didn’t I’m not baking any ADP into the want the recency free agency moves

Because I want to tell the market like you’re locking in and I think this is where they actually should go now a draft accordingly it is funny that like Maris Brown rocketed up but that’s about I mean we’re still both ahead of Mark so maybe maybe that’s not a good example

Still lagging though like okay so tell me this you have a really good wide receiver that we kind of like going to Kansas City and he’s still like going slowly like that’s the the I don’t know optimal example of like okay this really should have Market should have adapted

To this one yeah we’ve gotten excited about Chiefs wide receivers before overly excited some might say oh yeah um so it is it is weird that even then and I don’t know someone in uh the ship chasing CH was like stop stop uh you know making fun of the market for not

Get getting there on on these players fast enough but like I do actually think it’s an important thing to consider like what how quickly does this Market adjust and it seems pretty clear you know maybe it’s not fully the drafters maybe it’s like the underdog update schedule or

Something or how long the you know how much of a sample they keep for ADP or whatever I it’s the game I think it’s the game I think if you individually ask drafters like what their rankings were a lot of them are using you guys a lot are

Using ETR and so they may agree like yeah Maris Brown should be higher but because of the game that we play and the way that ADP ranks the players we still wait to draft them until later on and so it just takes a long time to really make

That move and on the other end when they’re dropping you see this player at the top maybe they get Auto drafted maybe you’re like H I don’t know maybe like it’s a value because mentally you’re like this 10 picks later the game definitely locks so I’m not you know

Crapping on like drafters and such like they’re our family um but I do think that like the game the game is like helps with the take lock or the draft lock or whatever we want to coin the term and I think it also might have to do with the sample of

ADP because DraftKings like stuff moves on DraftKings those and maybe it’s just people kind of just drafting on Vibes a little more over there I don’t know but like in the summer it was pretty wild like you know JK Dobbins would drop you know a couple rounds based on like some minor

You next yeah that’s right it was that’s yeah so it’s it’s it’s interesting I think this this might be like for the summer I think this might be applicable where like Underdog may move a little slower than um you know than DraftKings for example and I think

That’s something you can use to your advantage you know where it’s like do I reach for this Riser Maybe not maybe maybe see if you can push him like another six picks or whatever um all right man this was awesome appreciate the time uh anything sounds

Like I mean you got you got to be uh excited about the refresh of of these rankings getting the the projection baked in telling Le onlyi you get to argue with Le only before anyone I mean that’s that’s exciting in and of itself it’s good it’s good um yeah the process

Is impressive the whole team does a phenomenal job with these and uh yeah they’re just non-stop going in the Weeds on each individual team so lots of fun there um for me yeah I so I just got back from Vegas I did March Madison Vegas and rookies and sophomores

Launched like the day before I flew out so uh I was either going to only end up with like 20 of those drafts or throw in 130 slows so uh I am still in slow hell with rookies and sophomore rookies and sophore slow draft hell it’s a different

Kind of hell that’s that’s wild how like you must be constantly on the clock yeah but I’m doing the first off you have to turn notifications off like you just and then I’m doing like I uh takes about 45 minutes to just each seven hours go through make the picks and um uh

Sometimes you even have to do the let me just star and not pick when it’s like close the overnight so then like I can just yeah not always have you told Levitan about this I TR did you I don’t know we did a mock draft the other day and I already

Got shat on S because I think I have like I maxed out the big board I’ve now got 300 plus drafts under me ah I’m trying to like not be that much of a must be [Laughter] appalled he doesn’t know oh my God the best ball the best

Ball life that’s it is what it is I didn’t do I haven’t done any slow drafts yet I haven’t been able to rip off the slow draft bandid I can’t uh but I’m trying to I’m trying to Max the big board with fast only which I’m pretty

Sure I’m gonna fail at and then have to go to slows yeah so I’m usually the man who says like I am so against slows the benefit of rookies and sophomores for slows though is I’m pretty much going to be done in like a four or five day

Period right because it’s four PE four four people drafting 12 rounds they go pretty quickly if you do like 150 slows or whatever it is that’s like a month like that is miserable and it’s very hard to manage like figure out what you were thinking when you know the last

Time you did it so um this one doesn’t matter I know oh I’ve got three W running backs like I know how I’m drafting in these and yeah I hope did they haven’t launched another one I hope they do I don’t think they will before the draft they didn’t last

Year well maybe make it bigger next time because it was a lot of fun and then G Adam’s like hey should we do ranking this I’m like it’s already like 50% fall I did rankings of them and I forgot to include dear Douglas and everyone got

Mad oh and that’s a great stack partner because you don’t know if it’s Drake May or I know it’s a big oversight jul mlin as well didn’t get in because I didn’t have them marked in my last year’s rankings as what it was you want to guess who my highest exposed player is

In that uh JJ McCarthy uh I’m really going to limb because I’m in that process where I have no idea how to pronounce some of these but Isaac Reno oh wow okay interesting big leverage because exactly I just think for these no one really was drafting him in the Big Board because he

Wasn’t in it and so no one really thinks like about him in these and so I think I probably have a super super majority of like his overall draft shares because he’s not being draft like at all all right well if you’re in any uh of of

Slow drafts good good chance you can snipe on Isaac Gro now love it um check out uh legendary upside I just put out my second uh rookie quarterback article check that out going to have running back articles rolling out uh pretty soon here and then going through the rest of the rookie

Class wide receivers tight ends um heading up to the draft so check that out be back with you pretty soon I think we may end up doing a rankings pod as the next thing but we’ll figure that out see you then thanks for watching later