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What is up everybody we are back if you are new to this video Welcome if you are a regular Watcher I appreciate you very much if you don’t mind hit the Thumbs Up Button hit the Subscribe button those go a long way in helping us uh be able to
Make these videos now it is spring break uh for my son and so basically I’m playing you know as personal Butler slash uh Entertainer um all week and uh that’s it’s kind of fun it’s kind of stressful but uh yeah we’re here to talk about the Texas Children’s Houston open
Before we do let’s talk about the Valar Championship um man I can’t help but feel like I left a lot out on the table last week my two main tournament lineups both had Sam Burns they both had five of six through the cut Sam Burns all I
Needed was aart from him on his final hole to get six to six in both of my lineups and what does he do he three puts his final hole to miss on the number and to make matters worse uh DraftKings and the PJ tour sight changed
It from a bogy to a par for a span of about 15 minutes and uh then they changed it back to a boy so we got not only the sweat and then the let down and then another sweat and another let down but ultimately still had a good week at
DFS not so much on the betting front had uh Justin Thomas and Lucas Glover as my you know favorite outrights they were the two biggest favorites heading into Saturday’s round and they were they were paired together in on Saturday Justin Thomas shot a 79 lost over seven St
Strokes putting Lucas Glover shot one over I think he lost two strokes putting so together they were like nine over lost like 10 Strokes putting so yeah um feel like we were on the right path but uh didn’t get all the breaks to go our
Way oh and then I bet on cam young live on Sunday H malady got that great drop um I still don’t understand that golf Ru where you can drop from he dropped from the the rough bad line in the rough it was by a sprinkler head so we got you
Know to drop the nearest point or but then he got a full Club length and ended up dropping On The Fringe so he went from The Fringe to the rough made an easy up and down then cam young you know yanked one on 18 but anyway let’s talk
About this week as you can tell still a little frustrated about how last week ended but we have the Memorial Park Golf Course this going to be the fourth time that we’ve seen this course on the PJ tour it’s going to be the first time that we’ve seen
It um in the spring so the first three times were held 2020 2021 2022 and it was all in the fall uh so this is going from a fall swing event to uh you know kind of a a precursor to the Masters um this is a par 70 course that measures
7,400 yards so very long course um especially given the par now there are three par fivs and three par 3es so it’s a little bit of a unique par 70 layout there’s also a drivable Par Four and what that means is you’re going to get a
Lot of uh long par 3es and a lot of long par fours um in terms of the difficulty this played as the 11th most difficult in 2022 the ninth most difficult in 2021 the eighth most difficult in 2020 so it’s a pretty tough course um water’s
Only in play on four of the holes but the Fairway is pretty tough to hit on average last uh time we saw this event 57% driving accuracy 63% green regulation and the unique feature about this course is that um it is a municipal golf course so there’s like
60,000 rounds played on this course every year and uh what the designer did was he wanted to make it challenging for the professionals and easier for the recreational players so there’s only 21 bunkers on the course now um I don’t know about you I don’t know how good you
Are at golf but I cannot get out of a bunker so I would love to go and play this course there’s only 21 of them um on the entire course now Pros they love the bunkers they would much rather be in the bunker around the green than uh in
The rough so it plays a little bit more challenging for the pros a little easier for the amateurs which is kind of cool um so yeah it’s pretty difficult pretty long Fairway is pretty average size the greens are pretty large the one difference uh given the time of the year
Is going to be the grass type on the greens so it’s usually Bermuda grass and the in the fall but right now it’s poet trivolis overseed uh same we saw last week same we’ve seen at a couple different places so far this year so if
You do want to look at putting splits I do have those in the model the PO trious overseed putting splits and for the most part the harder the course the more I’m willing to uh Target bad Putters because you know the tougher courses demand more
Te to Green so you will be seeing a lot a lot of uh recommendations and bets on my end when it comes to guys that are just really good ball Strikers really good around the green but just can’t always uh get the putter working and I
Think that should do it for the course overview the P winners here Tony fow Jason CRA Carlos or T’s they’re all pretty long off the te all pretty good long iron players um the approach shot distribution is going to be pretty even there’s not a lot of wedges not a lot of
Mid irons not a lot of long irons pretty nice mix between all the different um approach shot distributions and yeah I think experience in Texas is certainly going to help uh with the wind and just the the overall um you know area being able to
You know play well in Texas has has been pretty predictive here over the years now let’s get into the stats I have 5% off the T most of that uh um waited to the long run last 6 months last 12 months 5% the total driving pretty big
Weight to Str gain approach um as we saw last week the expected uh EXT expected approach column here takes a look at how many approach shots golfers are going to be expected to hit within each 50 yard bucket whether that’s from the Fairway or the rough and then it looks at
Historical stro gained four individual golfers in those buckets so um it’s a really cool statistic that I you know I kind of came up with with the help of data golf’s um metrics that they have available on how many shots they’re expecting golfers to hit within each range sheffer’s number one hogi two
Phenow three zator four mark hubard five now Hub we’re gonna talk about him a lot he was awesome at the Players T green just couldn’t do anything else especially with the putter so um around the green I have it at 5% mind bumping this up a little bit if you uh want just
Because the greens are tough and with so few bunkers you’re going to get a lot of uh closely moan areas with you know runoffs around the green so you’re going to get a lot of tight Li chips so a tidy short game is certainly going to be an
Advantage this week pretty big weight to putting I have it at 9% total with three of that coming on Polar trivolis splits so guys that put the best on these types of greens Montgomery Griffin battley Ryder Jason day Justin s um eight 7% weight to birer better 7%
Weight to bogy avoidance very low weight to course history this week just because it hasn’t been all that predictive year in and year out I kind of prefer using Texas splits um which you have here so I put that at a 6% weight so guys that
Have played the best in Texas over the last uh three years Sheffer noren phal burger and Gary Woodland the course fit I didn’t put it at any just because um um sheffler rates out as a 20 you know some of the really good golfers rate out pretty poorly in the course fit
On day to golf so I don’t have that weighted at all this week and then we have the rabbit hole custom so if you do want to check out rabbit hole at bet spurts we do have an affiliate link if you want to sign up for it it’s really
Cool tool basically has every golfing split that you could ever imagine you can focus on grass type you know par the length of the course the difficulty of the course the the size of the greens the area geographically um and then you can look at all the like individual just the
Regular strok game metrics all the stats that you could ever want off the te around the green scoring metrics all that stuff so what I did I kind of created a custom metric um so I went through and I looked at courses that are at least average when it comes to
Difficulties so average above average and hard I looked at courses with at least average size greens um courses that um I remember what else I put into this but uh yeah it’s kind of cool you can go through and do all that fun stuff
So guys that R out the best in my unique uh filters got Sheffer zad Torres Windham Clark Johnny Vegas and Sam Stevens kind of leading the way there as always you have your form over the last 10 weeks this doesn’t actually go into the model in terms of the weights but
It’s just to show you the golfer form so somebody like Sheffer back-to-back wins hasn’t finished outside of the top 17 in the last last 10 weeks then we have the short-term form which is a mix of last uh three months and the last 24 rounds
You have the midterm form which is a mix of the last nine months and the last 50 rounds you have long-term form which is a mix of the last 18 months and the last 100 rounds so I kind of like uh weighing longterm more than shortterm but um
Toach their own if you want to bump up shortterm look at guys that are playing great just coming into the week you certainly can do that you can change any of these um weights up above if you are a premium member you can download this model change the weights it’ll
Automatically change these ratings here so let’s say you want to flip these you want to do 16% shortterm actually before we do that let’s go ahead and rank them so right now you know top five sheffler Clark fow day and tala based on my inputs let’s go ahead and flip the short-term and
Longterm stats um actually we have the same starting five but um so somebody like hor show is going to pop up a little bit because he’s been in decent form um Jagger’s going to go down a little bit Novak’s going to go up he’s obviously playing some good golf you
Know he’s got three four top 13s in his last five starts so you can go through and adjust all of these if you want if you just want to focus on guys that make a lot of birdies for Showdown or just for scoring purposes you can go ahead
And bump this up if you want to focus on you know just straight T green you can get rid of the putting put all these at zero Focus just on ball Strikers whatever it may be you can do that with this model which I think is a lot of fun
And then um after you’re done playing with the weights you can come here it’ll have the ratings all ready to go that you can load into lineup HQ and use as your projection Source okay let’s talk about the player pull at the very top you have Scotty Sheffer back-to-back
Wins obviously had the neck injury that he was dealing with the the players um the way I see it look people are going to say you can’t play him with the injury he might withdraw he wouldn’t be here if it was still bothering him you
Know the m is coming up so if he doesn’t withdraw before Thursday I think he’s you know completely good to go my plan is to be maybe lock him in I might lock him into every lineup that I build this week certainly in single entries certainly in cash games I’m starting
With sheffler the floor on DraftKings in the is $5,000 once again so a lot more values than we’re used to seeing when the floor is $6,000 The Field’s pretty weak love the idea of starting with Sheffer definitely going to be overweight on him and mme as well wind
Clark next up at uh 30% 109 don’t have a strong take on Clark I mean he’s playing some great golf he won a pebble back toback second place finishes to Scotty Sheffer I mean that’s got to be frustrating for him lost to him at the API then lost to him with the players
The players man he leftt out that birdie putt on 18 to force the playoff then fenale number three um he’s been really good with his irons this year the putter has been up and down but I think he’s gained he’s gained putting in three straights so maybe that’s coming around
A little bit he has won this event in the past so if you want to look at him I don’t mind it I do like Jason day is sort of a contrarian play this week he’s been pretty solid a lot of it’s been the short game so far this year but uh we’ve
Seen him win in Texas won the I think it was the Byron Nelson last year that was kind of the peak of his comeback and yeah everything kind of checks out for him he’s three for three here with a couple top 20 finishes tala has got that
Excellent short game you never know what to expect with him when it comes to the the ball striking but uh seems like a decent course fit for him my first bet of the week is going to be wills alores at 20 to1 I think that’s an
Excellent price for a guy that lives in lives in Texas very familiar with the area it’s to cut at the Players but prior to that he was fourth at API he was second at the Genesis excellent teer green and he has gained strug spting in
Four of his last six I want to say so um you know the move to the long putter the lab putter I think is going to you know pay some dividends long term and I just think it’s a really good bit for him we know he loves difficult golf courses and
This is one of the toughest non Majors on the PJ tour Jagger bet him as well a 50 to1 he gets into cention a lot doesn’t uh you know hasn’t been able to cross the finish line just yet but I think he won a couple times on the on
The corn fairy tour so we at least know he has it in him t35 T9 here the last couple years see Kim’s recent numbers T green have been awesome um so yeah he’s gained at least 5.7 Strokes T green and five of his last six starts t35 here
Last year don’t mind look looking at him noran’s a guy that always projects well but I never seem to get a lot of exposure to hasn’t missed a cut on the PJ tour I think in see if I have it here since September so playing some consistent golf I think he’s missed you
Know one or two cuts on the DP World Tour but coming in pretty good form Aaron Ry gotta think he’s a perfect course fit good total driver Elite iron player underrated around the green did miss the cut last week that was uh a little frustrating but otherwise he’s
Been very solid Doug gim wasn’t on the weekend at the B bar but prior to that five straight top 20 finishes great ball Striker I’ll continue to play him at 8200 that’s a really good price point I mean Keith Mitchell man what do we do with Keith Mitchell two-stroke lead
Heading into the Sunday round at the VB bar finish t24 I mean that is not good whatsoever he just completely tanked on Sunday don’t know how he’ll react but the ball striking has been pretty good recently uh we’ve been waiting for bow in Texas so ignore the bad form ignore
The back toback Miss this is the time to play B get him back in Texas hogi the iron play has been awesome he’s gained at least 3.7 Strokes on approaching seven straight starts so just absolutely on fire with the irons he went TCU so you know familiar with Texas golf hawsh
Is ring out well another good ball Striker Jake naap just continues to play well man I couldn’t believe he won then it was even more surprised by his fourth place finish I want to say that was at May Hill but maybe not um and then
You know made cuts the next two weeks as well so um yeah I mean nap’s been playing some good golf I don’t know if it’s sustainable but he’s playing well Ben Griffin with a nice finish last week he also has a top 20 here but the ball
Striking hasn’t been good it’s been all short game um hubard so yeah top five T green at the Players one of the best iron players in the field I think uh I think he’s a excellent value play no strong take on Rogers luk list so luk
List has lost around the Green in nine of his last 10 starts that worries me at a course which where it’s hard to hit greens if he’s going to be you know double dig ownership I’ll I’ll take my chances with the full fade I like kitty Aman tournaments H’s been playing a
Little bit better the TD green games coming around a little bit damond so he’s been on fire with the ball striking he’s gained 10 and 9.2 Strokes ball striking his last two starts now he’s lost seven and a half Strokes putting during that stretch but love the recent
Uh ball striking and look at this course history Fifth and Ninth I think he’s gonna get themed up like crazy this week I could see this number being north of 20% by the time lineups lock I bet him outright at 90 to1 I like that more than
I like um the ownership but man checks a lot of boxes this week Thompson’s an interesting tournament play I like Lashley the model loves him um he’s been very hit or miss so he’s got seven starts this year two top 15s five Miss Cuts but uh man the stats are pretty
Good I mean 17th in the stat model and all these cuts that he’s missing are almost like right on the number he’s just missing by one or two strokes so yeah I like Lashley at 6,000 my fate of the week is going to be Sam Ryder so
He’s been one of my favorite plays each of the last three events he’s played well great Sunday last week but uh man he’s over for three here I want to say over two here and the putter has been you know carrying him he’s gained 20 Strokes putting in his last three starts
He’s not that good of a putter so I’m going to take my chances with the full fate of Ryder I’m okay with Novak we talked about his form a little bit I’m okay with McKenzie Hughes fell apart a little bit on the back nine on Sunday when he was in contention but three
Straight top 30s on the PJ tour three straight top 30s at this event I think that is a very solid combo of course history in recent form Montgomery is all putter cage Lee’s been playing a little bit better don’t mind looking at him in tournaments Chandler Phillips turned Pro
And then finished uh T3 so you know an interesting young player to keep an eye on see if he can keep it going this week Silverman’s been playing okay bramlett’s really good tto green Taylor Moore has been making a lot of cuts but he hasn’t been showing a lot of upside he did
Finish t13 last week but um no strong take there I like Dylan wood again talked about him on the video last week gonna be off of Cam Davis for now um Taylor pendrith one of my favorite tournament plays so I think it’s a good course fit for him he’s a lot like Jason
Kokra in his skill set who was one here in the past and if you look at his game log he’s just a lot of top 10 a lot of miscuts so um top 10 upside of 1% ownership and 6600 signed me up for that see if there’s anyone else that we are
Missing Michael Kim played okay last week norlander coming off a backtack top 15s they were very weak Fields but somebody to keep in mind I think he yeah he’s played here three times um no finish better than t67 but he knows the course at least Brandon Woo is probably
My favorite guy in the 5Ks col’s playing a little bit better um did miss a cut last week but uh yeah it’s good to see him back on the course and I think that’ll do it I mean I don’t hate the course fit for Johnny Vegas but
I just want to see a little bit more from him before we start you know loading up on him uh bork was one of my favorite guys last week made the cut didn’t do much with it but this is not the same course fit so he’s more of an
Accuracy guy um and this is one of the the longer courses that he’s played so far this year so that’ll do it for the video thank you for joining me if you want to check out The Rabbit Hole uh we have links for that um reach out to me
If you have any questions about that we do have a $20 off um the combo package for RG premium right now which gives you access to the four major sports NBA PGA NHL MLB which is starting uh this week so that’s going to be a lot of fun if you’re interested
In that let me know um I have my own link that kind of doing a contest to see who can get the most signups so yeah if you want to give us a shot you want to try out this model the download we have a lot of other great content the master
Is right around the corner so it’s a great time to join get access to the start of the MLB season get access to to the Masters and hey if we don’t do a good job you can cancel after one month and not worry about it so thanks for
Watching the video appreciate you and we will catch you back here next week
