2024 Houston DFS Tactics

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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to Call’s calls this is the 2024 Houston open DFS tactics show got a fun show for you all we’re going to be updating the wind forecast or the weather forecast for Houston Texas uh how the wind is going to affect the tournament this week

Of course we have the most up to the second uh ownership projections from both fantasy National and from gab’s source so as always thanks to Gabe for sharing that uh with with me earlier today uh about a couple hours ago in fact um our rankings our top 6K and 5K

Plays uh pivots Fades all of that uh great show so let’s get right into it shall we all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money there are a lot of great golf analytics

Tools out there no doubt about it I simply believe fantasy National is the best so go check out FY national.com you won’t regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media my X and Instagram where every week I post research around the

PGA Tour that comes out usually Monday afternoon so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my betting cards and my top player

Usage in the DFS contest that I play that comes out after the DFS tactics show on Wednesday evening so that’ll come out later this evening uh after I am in gabes substack chat which I’ll mention here in a moment uh so if you want to see those pieces of information

Then give me a follow uh over at X and then lastly for social media gab’s handle is in this in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and he continues to update you throughout the week with his

Own version of recent form course history and whatnot and if you are a subscriber to his article which is free to do by the way you’re going to know already that every Wednesday evening uh he is gracious enough to host me over there in his substack chat and we

Continue the DFS talk uh in his substack chat we talk Game Theory our best plays uh areas of the price board that we seem to be gravitating toward how we think the weather impacts uh it’s uh open uh community over there open Forum uh so questions as always are welcomed uh so

Go show Gabe some support uh follow him over on social media and subscribe to that article again it is free to do so and then lastly we are Live Chat is open want to hear from you all who is your winner this week in Houston is it Scotty

Sheffer is it somebody else have you heard the big injury news which is what the poll question is for this even evening I’ll post that uh right after the intro uh so would love to hear the community’s thoughts on that um who are your top plays who are you fading away

From and of course if you want to talk a little bit of March Madness uh that’s also acceptable uh probably the last week that you’ll have to suffer through the fandom I hope not but probably the last week is Houston’s pretty good and I don’t think Duke’s going to make it past

Them although I hope but um but we’re here for the Houston open and everything DFS for this week so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston open and we start over at windfinder and let me tell you this uh forecast is going to

Really dictate a lot of what I do this week but first I teased a little bit of information in terms of an injury and this is again thanks to Gabe for for pointing this out to me uh earlier today this came out about around lunchtime maybe a little bit afterwards that

Windam Clark has sustained an injury or at least sustained an injury earlier this week to his back when he was working out now from all things that I have read he still uh intends to tee it up tomorrow uh he thinks he is he is recovered

Enough um so I want to make that fully aware that everything that I have seen is still putting Windham Clark on track to te it up tomorrow but if you have not heard he did injure his back working out earlier this week and then it was really really sore uh in his own

Words it was really sore I believe it was Tuesday um he could only Chip and Putt and then he’s been getting rehab treatments uh all through Tuesday and today says he feels a lot better so the poll question for this week is how does Windam clarks’s injury affect your strategy

This week uh does that mean you are going to all of the Scotty sheffler just using him nonstop uh are you pivoting to someone else besides Scotty are you using Windam but certainly reducing your amount of Windham Clark considering the injury or are you not afraid you’re

Going full boore with Windam Clark so I’ll post that a poll question in chat would love to hear the community’s thoughts on that and certainly I will give you my thoughts towards the end of the show but in terms of a forecast for Houston you see tomorrow looks pretty

Pretty n um very little wind uh pretty pleasant day overall highest 75 no rain uh maybe the slightest of increase in wind at the very tail end of the day but for the most part uh Thursday looks to be a wash in terms of any favor uh it

Looks pretty equal I guess is the best way to put that Friday however does not Friday there seems to be a clear advantage for the earliest of tea times on Friday morning and then you see uh the sustained winds are pretty low uh towards the later morning but the gusts

Certainly pick up and there looks to be a lot of wind in the forecast for Friday so because of this I have got a pretty significant Advantage for the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. portion of the draw but do note that this little Gap here this this little hour where the wind really

Kind of starts to pick up this still encompasses a little bit of the Thursday or excuse me the Friday morning T times so I would I would be very conscientious of focusing on getting the players that are teeing off on the earliest times on Friday morning so so

Make sure you go and wherever whatever Source you use whether that’s PJ tour.com leaderboard or or whatever make sure you go and find the tea times for the players that are teeing off earliest on Friday morning as that’s those are the players are going to have a significant Advantage but overall a

Pretty significant Advantage for the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. regardless uh but the most extreme of that Advantage is the earliest of early tea times on Friday morning and then if we zoom out take a look at the weekend looks like Saturday we still have some wind in the forecast especially early and then

Sunday uh looks uh pretty pretty windy as well so it looks like wind is going to be a a major factor this week uh for Memorial Park in the Houston open uh uh one one more time I’ll bring you into the forecast for uh the cut portion uh but again very very

Extreme um favor at least for me in terms of the Thursday p.m. and the earliest of early Friday a.m. as this little portion here does encompass some morning tea time so they won’t have as much of an advantage I’m looking for the early of early tea

Times all right with that I’ll keep that up in case there are more questions but uh I admit to unstar these of course I didn’t as I was grabbing the uh updated ownership projections apologies remember that um MTH McNeely has withdrawn Kevin U and then earlier today or maybe it was yesterday CT

Pan CT pan has also withdrawn so make sure if you have already submitted lineups that you go and and make sure that he is not in your lineups as CT pan has withdrawn but considering the forecast that we just looked at in windfinder in moderate and windy

Conditions in the last two years our top total performers have been Scotty Sheffer Windham Clark sahit tagala Harry Hall Wills aloris Patrick Rogers Carson young Andrew Novak Mark hubard and OA batia those are your top 10 in terms of total performance um in the in moderate and

Windy conditions if we move on down a little bit Sam Stevens Dylan woo Michael Kim Nate Lashley Callum Taran round out your top 15 you can see about the top 30 or so uh so give these players a pretty significant boost I would think uh as wind appears

To be a big factor for the entirety of this week except for Thursday and especially give these players a boost if they are the Thursday pm. Friday a.m. portion of the draw um the other end of the spectrum players who have not played well in the wi Kevin kizner Carl on Ryan brim

Harrison indicot Cole Hammer Tom hogi Stuart sink Maddie Schmid Martin trainer Davey vanderwalt Sun Kang Justin low Tyson Alexander and so on down you can see the uh bottom perform or the worst performers in terms of wind uh removing the moderate and windy filter something else that we know of of

Memorial Park it is an extremely long course 70 over 7,400 yard as a par 70 just an extremely long course so in the past two years on courses that are over 7,400 yards our top performers have been Scotty sheffler Sam Stevens OA batia wendam Clark Kevin Chapel Michael Kim

Eric Barnes Wills alluris Tony feno and Hayden Springer continue on down Nate Ashley sah tala JJ spawn Harry Hall Jimmy Walker there’s your top 15 and then you can see about the top 30 or so there these are your top performers on Long courses the past couple of years the

Other end of the spectrum players who have not played long courses well Chandler Phillips only nine rounds but is what it is ADS Vincent and Kevin kizner and Stuart sink Ryan brim Patton kazy Garrick higgo Cam Davis uh Adam long Tyson Alexander Joel Damon Billy horel and so on down these are

Your worst performers in the past couple of years on Long courses so with that um not going to look at difficult as again this is played um it’s played difficult for probably what 67th or no excuse me 56 so 83% of the rounds that we’ve seen Ator

Moral Park there’s been one easy and one average round maybe two average rounds uh in terms of difficulty the mo most of the time it’s been pretty difficult but Memorial Park’s always been seen in the fall so this is the first time we’re seeing it in the spring I do think it’ll

Play a little bit easier even with the wind I do think it’ll play a little bit easier than what we have seen in the past uh three years or three um editions of at the Houston open so I’m not going to look too heavily a difficult although

I did use it on one metric in the mixed condition model but more so I’m looking in terms of total performance on Long courses and in moderate and windy conditions So speaking of that mixed condition model let’s go ahead and look at that what I have made for the Houston

Open this week and we start with 15% in Strokes Gan approach just uh a a big factor throughout uh the majority of the PJ tour uh Memorial Park is no different we’re going to be looking at uh guys who can who can hit their irons very well

15% in around the green a heavy increase from what I looked at last year uh look this is one of the most difficult uh courses for around the green now I’ve read some players think it’s a little bit easier at this time of year since the Bermuda is dormant but

I’m just going by the fact that um you know the course is very very long the greens are not easy to hit so I’m thinking that around the green is going to be a pretty big factor and it is generally not been an easy course to get

Around the green so 15% a heavy emphasis on around the green play this week 10% on poet trivialis putting I did want to put 15% here but there were quite a few metrics that I wanted to focus on uh again wanted to put 15% in around the

Green just a heavy emphasis on that so I did back off the putting to 10% and you see the the multiple courses filter that’s just poet trivialis we’ve talked about for the last three weeks you know harbort toown Stadium Course Quil Hollow etc etc the courses that are consistent

On the PJ tour and have poet DV Alis overse that is that filter 5% distance on Long courses when driver is forced into these players hands I do think d uh driving distance will have a small factor it will benefit the players to have a little bit of distance it’s not

Mandatory we’ve seen players like Joel Damon and Mackenzie Hughes have success here at Memorial Park but I don’t want or I do want to give a slight nod to players or to the bombers so 5% on uh or 5% driving distance courses over 7,400 yards you could also look at

Difficult but again as I talked about I don’t know if it’s going to play as difficult as it has the past three editions of the Houston open so I felt much more comfortable looking at long courses same with greens 5% greens gain on Long courses I really wanted to put

10% in here um just ran out of percent this was the last metric um that uh that was included in the mixed condition model and I only had 5% left so if anything I’m a little bit light in my opinion on this but 5% greens gained on Long courses again

Memorial Park extremely long course these greens are not easy to hit um so if if players are hitting the greens they’re going to be gaining quite a bit of an advantage and I want to focus on those players 15% in bogey avoidance we talked a little bit about this Monday

Night and how uh the raw number in terms of bogy avoidance for the players who have finished top 30 at Memorial Park is the second highest on the PGA tour behind only Quail Hollow so 15% in bogey avoidance when scoring is difficult and this is just my preference of matching a

Scoring metric like bogey avoidance Bird’s gain whatever to a scoring filter easy or difficult relatives part so 15% bogey avoidance when it’s difficult 5% total prox and this is my angle this week looked at the individual ranges um here at Memorial Park and they were all Plus or all uh positive in

Terms of in relation to the average full field course so when that’s the case I’m looking at total procs you could also look at opportunities gained but again I I just kind of ran out of percentage I did not have 5% to put in Opportunities gain and I really did want

To look at total procs CU these greens are large so 5% total procs this is my angle this is one where um would be my first guess if the mixed condition model goes goes ay it would be the total procs but I really do like this angle of attack

This week uh so 5% there 10% in all of the part 3s just like uh at inisbrook where there were five part 3s there are five part 3s here at Memorial Park so uh no specific range either just kind of looking at all of par 3s we saw that uh

Tony fenale played them extremely well uh I say last year but in the fall of 20 2 KRA played them well so par three is going to be of pretty big importance 5% each in total par fours and the 450 to 500 this was clearly the the most

Important range in terms of Strokes gained in the par fours so only looking at 5% there and 5% of the par fours considering uh there are not that many par fours here um with the extra par three um there’s not a lot of par for so they do get mitigated in in importance

And then finally to round out the mix condition model 10% in par five 550 to 600 we spent a little bit of time talking about this Monday as well how even though there is a par five that measures over 600 on the scorecard the past two years past two times the uh

Houston open’s been at Memorial Park they have not played a par five over 600 yards so I’m going to go with that um and think that maybe uh they shorten uh T boxes or T’s and pins and whatnot um CU this has been clearly the most important range so there’s a look

At the mixed condition model that I’ve made for Memorial Park again if there are weaknesses you know if my angle of attack is wrong this week if total procs doesn’t end up being a big thing you know if greens needed to be more or if I

Need to factor in some off the te I don’t think accuracy is going to be a big deal this week because the rough is so short players aren’t uh going to be uh afraid to be in the rough it’s only kept at an inch and a quarter or inch

And a half um if putting needs to be a little bit more I could see that being a little bit of a weakness maybe um but overall uh this is what I have settled on in terms of a mixed condition model for for the week so with that we go to

Microsoft Excel the reveal of my rankings for this week’s Texas Children’s Houston open no surprise Scotty sheffler is the number one player in my rankings wiam Clark is number two but again uh these rankings do not factor in any possible injuries and and remember he did tweak his back when

Working out earlier this week so there’s no way for the number to reflect that but wiam Clark number two Tony fenale third Jason day four Tom hogi rounds out my top five Andrew Novak at 6,900 six SEIU Kim SE toala Keith Mitchell and Alex noren round out my top

10 uh not a whole lot of surprise here I mean even the 6900 Andrew Novak you see how much uh attention he’s garnering per fantasy National very very good with the irons in 24 top 10 and around the green as well uh really he’s only got one bad

Statistic he just doesn’t have a lot of a lot of distance which um might hurt him a little bit this week but he has not played Memorial Park so we don’t know if he’s going to like the course or not um so other than Andrew Novak probably no

No real surprise as to who is up here in the top 10 you can always argue ordering let’s go ahead and sort on the price board and see where our fellow contestants are going in their lineups and see the players that we might be able to Pivot off of that chalk so in

The 10ks or in the five digits we have four players we have Scotty at 13,000 Windham Clark at 109 sahit Gala at 103 will Al tourus at 101 and reminder that I will have gabes uh ownerships over here off to the side uh number one projected own player

No surprise Scotty Sheffer 21% for Fantasy National so it seems like fantasy National members are going to try to beat Scotty sheffler because gabes um um Source has Scotty sheffler at 52 percent 52% that is it’s ridiculous um and the sad thing is I don’t know if I can recommend not

Going to him uh even with the prohibitive price and prohibitive ownership I just don’t see a scenario where Scotty Sheffer struggles this week uh great when it’s difficult if it does play difficult great in the wind great on Long courses really the only thing that’s

Going to hold him back is the Putter and and you see 38 I mean he’s actually been pretty darn good on poet trivialis past couple of years what else is there to say otherwise I mean he’s number one in so many metrics bogey avoidance and irons he’s third in around the green

First in Greens on Long courses number one par 4 performer I despite the prohibitive price and the Really prohibitive ownership I think I’m gonna be able to find you all some unique options in the six and 5Ks that we can use Scotty shuffler uh and not be

Too worried about it having said that if you’re going to choose to avoid him you’re going to gain a whole lot of win equity and leverage by skipping him uh if he does not play you know if he doesn’t top 10 or top 15 you’re going to be gaining a

Whole lot I just don’t know if I’m willing to go there Windham Clark would have been second in my rankings I really liked Windham Clark and then we got the news of that um workout injury so I am quite a bit less on Windham Clark now um

Anytime you start talking about a neck or a back uh for golf it it’s it it gets worrisome so instead I’ve been going to sahala and I know he is going to be very very popular he’s the second most projected own player per fantasy National sitting at 215% per gab

Source I really like sagala this feels like a good seat to Goa course it’s much better around the green than what I think he’s showing top 10 putter on this surface top five in the par F uh excuse me in the par five links here at Memorial he’s played Memorial fairly

Well I like everything about sahit tagala this week so naturally he’s going to U not play well but I’ve been going to see tagala now that uh I am much lower on Windam Clark and then Wills alur I think is fine um going to be you know popular 175% at both places the

Irons are fine it’s again much like Scotty sheffler he’s been pretty bad on this surface uh the Putter’s holding him back whereas Scotty’s actually been pretty good on this surface so I don’t know um I’m just much much higher on sahit tala so I haven’t been

Using a whole lot of Wills Al Taurus but I think it’s fine you’re just not going to have a lot of uniqueness off of it so in the 10ks absolutely Scotty cheffer number one I’ll make sahit toala number two I’ll probably make will out T Third

Only because I am I am pretty darn hesitant about that back injury from Windam Clark so and with the Masters coming up I I highly doubt he pushes himself if he starts to feel anything any discomfort um you know if this was Master’s week he might try to push

Through it with with the Masters coming up I would not be surprised if he uh if he withdraws if he does not feel 100 % so I’ll go Scotty then sahala then zalat torus and then wendham Clark moving into the nines Tony F now sewo Jay day Alex

Noren Keith Mitchell and Tom hogy again all of these players rated out extremely well for me uh in the 9ks per gab Source the unique option is Tom hogi and I guess technically per fantasy National they have him as the unique option he’s at 12 and a half

Versus you know 13 on a couple of of these other players I kind I really like Tom hogi he has not been the best here a lot probably because he is not a good around the green player but the number one iron player in this field avoids

Bogies he’s also the number one par three player in this field and with five par 3es you’d have to think that uh that’s going to benefit him quite well uh um I I like Tom hogy quite a bit uh let me bring up my other sheet here

And look at the players of tea times and whatnot so the one thing with Scotty sheffler which I’ll jump back up to the tkes one thing about Scotty Sheffer you might hesitate about he does have a Thursday a.m. which means he’s going to have the Friday

PM portion of the draw which isn’t great uh he’s going to be dealing with a lot of win but he is by far and away the class of the field so uh I’d be be willing to to overlook that a little bit um Hog’s got the good side of the

Draw uh really the only person that has the Thursday a.m Friday PM portion of the draw in the 9ks is Keith Mitchell which would be okay if we weren’t factoring in the the the bad half of the draw I mean the irons have been better the putter is really really let him

Down um but considering the fact that he’s kind of imploded two straight weeks now and he’s on the bad half of the draw I’m going to be much lower on Keith Mitchell than what this ninth uh ranking would would suggest I’m also a little bit lower on Alex norn as well uh you

See he hasn’t played Memorial Park all that well uh noren at uh 12 % 133% per fantasy National nothing astronomically great in these metrics whereas like Tom hogi number one iron player and avoids Bogies very very well at least Keith Mitchell his irons have been very very good

Norin pretty I mean he’s good but nothing Elite or standout in the irons the around the green now he’s been good on this surface 20 second top 10 in the par fives sure but doesn’t have a lot of distance he hasn’t gotten or hit a lot

Of Greens on Long courses so I do have some concerns with noren I hate seeing Jason day rate fourth in in my rankings but it is what it is like the irons yes they’re not good but the around the green fantastic putter fantastic avoids bogies top five in the par five lengths

As well uh Jason day is probably a pretty solid play but he’s getting a lot more um use for gab Source than fantasy National gab Source has him at 16 and a half% seu Kim’s fine uh don’t love it don’t hate it you know I’m not going

What I said about C or what I’ll say about cuk Kim is the same I said about Cameron young like from last week I’m not going to reach to try and get him in lineups but he happen if he happens to fall into a lineup or two it’s fine I’m

Just I’m just not going to reach for him and despite Tony fal’s um awful performance at uh at valpar everything’s lining up for him to be pretty solid again this week he’s the defending champion top five in irons avoids bogeys his putter is his worst uh Strokes gain metric and he’s actually

Been acceptable on poet trivialis now the par 3s need to improve absolutely he’s not been good on par 3s in 2024 but par fives he’s been okay fourth in Greens First in procs with Tom hogi so I mean I I think fenale should be fine but

I’ve said that you know the past couple of times and and it and it’s been pretty bad so in the 9ks Tom hogi is my number one player a lot of it has to do with the fact that he is the most unique option but I do like Tom hogi here this

Week number one iron player he generally avoids Bogies um the putter isn’t great but it’s it’s fine on the surface number one total procs number one par three player in this field I really like Tom hogi I’ll use some Jason day I’m not you know I’m not excited about it but him rating

Out fourth and the fact that he’s played well at Memorial Park I’ll use Tony F now and I’ll probably get burned on it again but that’s where I’m going in the 9ks I’m sure I’ll have some some Keith Mitchell but I’m going to be I’m going

To try to limit my use of him I’m not nearly as high on Alex noren ceu Kim is fine I’m just not exced excited about it all right moving into the eights um Doug gim anytime you’re not really factoring putting uh he’s going to rise and even

Though we do have a full 10% you see like the putting has been okay on this surface really has been his detriment is the lack of distance but uh top 10 in bogey avoidance top 15 in irons Doug gim should be fine he just has the bad half of the

Draw um so I scroll down here Doug gim 115% for gab Source 12% here makes a lot of sense the person who’s getting the most love um at least per gabes like the combination of Gab source and fantasy Nationals Kirt kyama my guess is because

He has the good half of the draw he’s in the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. iron’s been fine bogy voidance has been good uh par three performance has been excellent so a lot to like there with Kurt kyama even though he hasn’t had a lot of elite

Finishes to show for it so I don’t hate it but he’s going to be more popular than you would think Kurt kyama would be um in the 8ks we’ve got a few players that are um pretty unique Billy horel 11% fantasy National 9% gab Source Patrick

Rogers 7 and a half per gab Source 6% here I don’t know how I feel about it cuz he does have the good half of the draw but man these two numbers really scare me off so if you’re wanting some uniqueness it could be Patrick Rogers

Just not in love with it looks like um Aaron Ry starting to calm down on his astronomical amounts of ownership he’s the past couple of weeks uh probably a lot of it to do with the fact that he lacks distance at a supposed bombers Paradise um but he’s been good

Here he’s been okay here I don’t know I it it’s it’s fine kind of like sew Kim if he happens to fall into a lineup or two fine if not I’m not going to stretch to use it uh in the 8ks um let’s see Patrick Rogers Kirk kyama have good halfs of the

Draw uh B Hustler Stephen joerger they’re the first group out tomorrow so they’re definitely in the afternoon on Friday uh Jake Napp is in the afternoon on Friday you see the amount of attention he’s getting for Fantasy National which again except for the half

Of the draw he has I don’t hate it been good with the iron bogey avoidance is fine he’s been great putter on this surface he’s just on the bad half of the draw so in the 8ks uh I’ll use some kittama although I’m not happy about his ownership but he

Is one of the few players in here that’s on the right half of the draw I will still use Doug gim even though he’s got the bad half of the draw um I’ll still use some Doug gim mainly because I I still think the putter is acceptable enough on this

Surface um Jagger and Hustler are the first group out tomorrow so I do worry about their tea times on on uh on Friday even though they rid it out okay I would be much more interested in joerger than I would be in Hustler and Aaron R is okay I guess Jake

Nap’s okay I guess Jake nap’s actually if it wasn’t for his the half of the draw that Jake knap has I would be much much higher on Jake knap but he’s got the bad half of the draw so I’m going to try to limit my use of him

All right moving into the upper sevens I like McKenzie Hughes he’s going to be a little bit popular 145% per gab Source 11 and A2 at Fantasy National that’s a lot that’s a lot especially for somebody who’s not a particularly good iron player you’re playing him for his short game number

Two around the green good putter part 3 been really bad as well in 2024 but he has played extremely well at Memorial Park so um I’m going to use him especially since he he is on the good half of the draw but he is not unique by any means

Uh somebody who is unique not on the good half of the draw unfortunately but it is unique is Ben Griffin kind of like Ben Griffin 6% at both places kind of a lot a lot the same of McKenzie Hughes not the greatest with the irons but you

Around the green game he’s number four he’s top five in putting on this surface and he’s also a very good par three player has been in 2024 so give Ben Griffin a a pretty solid look again he’s just on the bad half of the draw which you hate but you’re gonna

Have to take some chances this week um Taylor Moore getting some attention 12 a half and 11% it’s fine I’m just not excited about Taylor Moore especi especially because he’s on the bad half of the draw I’d much rather play Ben Griffin at the same price because I’m getting half the

Ownership um moving into the mid sevens like Davis Thompson is rated out well seemingly the past month uh he’s on the good half of the draw I can say that but I don’t know he seems he seems fairly middling otherwise B voin isn’t great he’s not a great putter on this

Surface or hasn’t shown to be a great putter on this surface he does take advantage of par five so that’s that’s the one thing he has going for him Davis Thompson sitting at you know in between 7 and A2 and 8 half% okay Ryan fox has burned me for

Three weeks in a row he’s on the bad half of the draw this this is the one week where I’m off of Ryan Fox so he’s going to play well so take that information how you will this is the one week I am off of Ryan Fox I’ve backed him for three weeks

He’s been awful so now he’s probably going to top 15 um as we move into the low sevens uh not a lot I like here which tells you the kind of lineups I’m building especially if I’m using a lot of Scotty sheffler um Joel Damon getting a lot of

Lot of interest he you know popped uh last week at the vile Spar he’s at 11% for Gabe Source 14% for Fantasy National it’s about the irons it’s fine number one in total procs as well with Tom hogy and Tony fenale maybe there was a couple others that were also number one in

Total procs but uh he’s got a lot of red he’s got a lot a lot of red so I don’t want any part of Joel Damon hubard rid it out well no thanks or I mean I mean I’m not excited to to go there I’ll use him if I have to

But um not in love with it uh especially since he is on the bad half of the draw as well bar cupboard is um not a great putter on this surface the one thing he does have going for him he is the number one par five player in this

Field um so take that but lacks a lot of distance I’m just not not in love with Mark Hub even though he rided out so well so I’m I’m not really anywhere below say Ben Griffin in the 7ks like I’m I’ll have these players in lineups

I’ll use a Davis Thompson a Tim or two I’ll sure I’ll use a hub a little bit heck I might even use Ryan Fox once but in terms of confidence I’m really only around Ben Griffin I’ll use some Mackenzie Hughes as well in the 7ks otherwise I’m not here and that tells

You exactly the lineups I’m building moving to the sixes look at Andrew Novak 14% per fantasy National he’s only 6% at G per gab Source but fantasy National members are gravitating to Andrew Novak a lot for good reason I mean he rated out sixth top 10 in irons top 10 in

Around the green almost top 10 in putting on this surface there’s a lot to like here two things holding Andrew Novak back the ownership at least if fantasy National is correct the ownership and he’s on the bad half of the draw um plenty of other 6K options

Though Bobby Mack he’s been okay lately I I I do like some Bobby Mack especially at a course that rewards distance he can move it off the te so take a look at Bobby Mack Chandler Phillips is somebody that rated very uh high for me as well

4% owned here 4 and a half per gab Source kind of like Chandler Phillips you look across not a red statistic for a while top 25 in irons top 25 in bogey avoidance top 25 in putting top 10 in both the par 3s and the par

Fivs he lacks a little distance and he hasn’t hit a ton of Greens on Long courses but I there’s a lot to like with Chandler Phillips so I’m I’m going to be using a whole lot of Chandler Phillips and if he doesn’t play well I’ll lose I do not like his ownership bramlet

Is at 12% per vanish National 8% per Gabe Source but this is somebody I did want to highlight for you all I will be using Joseph bramlet maybe not as much seeing how much attention he’s garnering but guy avoids Bogies pretty good ball Striker really brandlin is it’s all about the

Distance driving distance and his long irons are pretty good so I do like Joseph bramlet um if you want to look at around the green play take a look at Aon badley uh he’s on the bad half of the draw but uh I figured I would mention

Him um let’s see a casual mention to Carl Yuan around the green been good irons have been acceptable I guess he’s got a lot of distance so you can take a look at Carl you on I I much much prefer Chandler Phillips and Joseph bramlet even at bramlet increased ownership I still

Prefer those two but you can take a look at Carl Yan he he does have the good half of the draw um moving into the fives I do have two players for you all in the 5Ks first name I’ll mention at 5900 is Hayden Springer um decent around the green the

Irons I think are a little bit better than this mainly he’s on the good half of the draw he has played long courses well and he’s got plenty of distance and he’s the par 3es have been good so you know you have to stomach some bad irons or

Hope that he has a good iron week but I don’t hate Hayden Springer at 5900 but the way I’ve been using a bunch of my lineups or or being able to fit all the Scotty sheffler that I want all the way down at 5200 I am going to rapael compost I

Talked about him quite a bit in the alternate field events the the Puerto Rico and and at Mexico which I know is in alternate field event but it was close the guy generally plays long windy courses pretty well the irons have been good the around the green is his Worst

By far but look at the rest of his metrics across not a single red metric putting’s okay on the surface it can be a little suspect great with the par 3es driving distance has been fantastic on Long courses par fours are good proximity is good so I really really like rafhael compost at

4% at 5200 he’s been enabling all of my lineups considering Scotty sheffer’s at 1300 so there’s a look at the price board how I see your where the chalk seems to be how icy or what good pivots there are um again reminder that if you’re watching the show live I ask that

You um fill out that that poll question looks like we have a vote in there um but as we move forward let’s start making some lineups we’re going to start with tiers contest for those who play tiers contests in tier one we have Scotty winam Clark and C

Tala this one’s a little tough I mean Scotty’s the overwhelmingly obvious choice I do like seah tala enough that that if you think tagala is going to be considerably less owned it’s probably worth taking the gamble on sahit tagala Scotty’s just the overwhelming you know obvious option I

Do think because of his injury earlier this week even though he’s probably going to Tee It Up I do think Windam Clark is a non-factor or or you know no nowhere near consideration in tier one so I’m going to go with sahit tagala in tier one um probably because I’m going

To pick up some chalk a little bit elsewhere in Tei but it is a gamble because I think Scotty Sheffer is by far in away the number one player in this field but I do like see tagala enough that I think it he could make it interesting I’m just hoping to get some

You know decent amount of uh uniqueness off of him so I will go see to G tier one tier two Z torus fenal seu Kim J day and Keith Mitchell I really want to like fenale but he is he’s not been great in Premier Events and and was really bad last week

I do have some concerns with Wills Al torus see who’s fine jday I don’t want to get excited about so I guess I will take Tony fenale and just trust the analytics behind it I don’t feel great about it tier three Alex noren Tom hogi Jagger Hustler and

Rogers pretty simple it’s Tom hogi for me uh he’s on the good half of the draw he might be the only Alex norin does have the good half of the draw but much more confident Al in Tom hogi than I am in Alex noren again these two are in the

Bad half of the draw Rogers just no thanks so me Tom hogi in tier three tier four we have Aaron Ry horel gim Kurt Kama Jake knap olison and Cam Davis interesting I think it’s between these three gim and nap on the bad half of the

Draw so Kitty yma has the good half of the draw but he’s the one I’m kind of the least um least confident in uh I think give me kittama e even though I’m the least confident in it um I think the around the greens a little bit better

Than than what it’s showing he’s been okay statistics wise in 2024 and the fact that he has the good half of the draw I think is the separator between gim and Jake knap if you’re not worried about half of the draw take duck gim I think but give me

Kitty on it five M Hughes Ben Griffin Taylor Moore batia Lucas dietry and cagley it’s between two players Griffin and M Hughes again MC Hughes has the good half of the draw Ben Griffin does not I’m going to take Ben I’m going to take MC Hughes because he’s he has the good half

Of the draw Ben Griffin if you’re not terribly concerned about that finally tier six we have grazer Matty Schmid Vincent Norman Carson young Ryan Palmer and Justin Su this is awful gosh I don’t know might have to flip three coins um man Carson Young’s clearly rated the

Best but you see his course value he stunk the one time he played this uh um this does not feel like a good Ryan Palmer of course even though he’s from Texas uh I want to like Vincent Norman but man he’s been really bad in 2024 I mean just really

Bad um Manny Schmid’s and okay form from the VP I guess or uh yeah from the VP I guess give me Carson young but again I just I don’t I don’t like it so this tier’s construction goes SE tala Tony fenale tier three is Tom hogi tier four

Is Kurt kyama tier five is ma Hughes tier six is Carson young all right let’s start making some classic lineups how uh we are going to try and maneuver around this Chalk in these big gpps Scotty Sheffer is by far in way the number one own player so I’ll make a

Lineup try to make a chalky lineup with him again he is projected at 52% ownership per gab Source now in terms of matching um the both um both uh sources in terms of ownership they’re not going any further down than Joel Damon which is going to be really

Really hard for them to do Joel Damon at 7,100 now Andrew Novak per fantasy National getting a lot of attention and Bud colie getting quite a bit of attention at 6200 Joseph brandlin also at 66 but if we try to bottom this out at Joel Damon

I don’t think I don’t know if we’re going to be able to this would be Joel Damon um yeah I mean we’re already above their average so we’re going to try to to do this um with the fantasy National um ownerships bramlet at 12 they might even go Andrew Novak at

14% they might not have to do both let’s try Jet Damon here yeah they can do this so you got Damon 7100 then coming up you got Taylor Moore probably Mackenzie Hughes ay P good evening um hope all has been well this week you’re ready for ready for the Houston open and the

All the Scotty lineups that you can make seemingly that’s the way it’s going right now um 7900 um Thor olison is not getting a whole lot of love now Jake nap is so if they drop off of Damon to Andrew Novak this would be uh Jake knap maybe

Kittama but at least per fantasy National that that looks to be the shell of a chalky lineup with Scotty sheffler highly highly doubt they’ll be able to do much in the 8ks if any at all they might have to do go double six cuz there’s no nobody really in the

Fives getting a lot of attention now granted we didn’t go to Bud collie at least per fantasy National Bud collie getting a little bit of some love but per Gabe Source he’s only at 4% so I don’t see it all that much but if we go you know B Bud collie Joel

Damon come up to luk Liss getting some some some attention I suppose 81 per you know this is Jake naap and Doug Yim it might be this might be another another chalky lineup um if they’re willing to come down all the way to Bud collie this is per fantasy

National again gab Source they’re bottoming out maybe at Joseph bramlet yeah MLB tomorrow I’m excited quite excited for it uh I’ve already reserved my lineup in a couple of of small MLB um gpps going to be working on that tomorrow morning but I’m excited it’s baseball

Season I’m excited so there’s a look at a a Scotty Sheffer lineup if our fellow contestants aren’t going with Scotty I would be surprised but uh looks like they’re going sahit tala and this gives them a whole lot more wiggle room since they’re not going up to the

13,000 they might actually try to squeeze in a 10 uh a 9k here um per gab Source the 9k would be like sewo maybe Jason day um even though he’s the second most unique per fantasy National so you know whether that’s a sewo or a Jason day let’s go sewo I

Think we can we can make this work uh yeah um they might drop into the 6ks again for the Joseph bramlet for the Andrew Novak uh but they they probably don’t have to this again would be Joel Damon um yeah I mean that’s really kind of where it’s at in the low

Sevens uh at both places just Joel Damon seems to be getting a whole lot of attention and then at 8,000 per you could go Jake Napp and and McKenzie Hughes maybe a Doug gim and Taylor Moore don’t think you’re going to be able to squeeze in a uh another nine

Here so you know fill this out however you wish uh we’ll go Doug yam who’s getting quite a bit of attention at both places actually kir Kama is getting the most so kittama 79 is olison who’s not but it’s Mackenzie Hugh so there’s a probably a a chalky shell

Of a nons Scotty Sheffer lineup they’re probably going to heat tagala I’m giving them tagala because of the news around Windham Clark maybe they’re using Windam Clark but I’m giving them to Gala so how are we going to combat that well I’m going to tell you right now I haven’t

Built any balance lineups I just I do not like a lot in the upper sevens I don’t like a lot in the eights about 90 to 95% of my lineups have been with the caveat of that has to have either Scotty or seah and a lot of those lineups have

Been both so let me build one where it’s not both of them because I really like the Scotty Sheffer and sahit toala like super greed lineups but if we’re not going to do both let’s do SE tala again I got to I I have to believe or trust in the

Analytics Tony feno I know he hadn’t been great lately but man everything lines up for him to be pretty good here top 10 in irons top 10 in bogey avoidance even the putter on poet trivialis isn’t isn’t bad so I’ve got to believe in the analytics he’s also the

Defending Champion here so with that you see it’s still a stars and scrubs lineup it’s just not the super stars and scrubs lineup so we we can drop down to the 6ks um don’t have to do it but more than once um you know I mentioned a couple of

People in the lower sixes maybe Michael Kim okay maybe a Dylan woo we’ve got Carl Yuan really kind of popped for me but really it’s kind of Chandler Phillips Bobby Mack Andrew Novak maybe a little bit less but I’m going to use Bobby Mack in this really lean into that distance

Narrative of fenale and seah and and Bobby Mack and then we don’t have to go into the sixes the rest of the way um you know in the low sevens maybe you like a Davis Thompson a little bit more than I do uh I’m going to go in the upper six or

Mid to Upper sixes I’m going to go more so with the Ben Griffin uh he’s on the good half of the draw or no I’m sorry he’s he doesn’t have the good because sorry let me rephrase this Ben Griffin and Taylor Moore are both on the

Bad half of the draw but because they’re both on the bad half of the draw give me the guy that’s half the ownership of the other one especially if they’re roughly around the same ranking for me so you know I I don’t mind a Ben Griffin this

Gives is 81 we have we can afford to take some chalk here Kurt kyama Jake knap McKenzie Hughes uh maybe you can find a 100 uh and squeeze in a Doug gim who I who I really like again I’m not necessarily in love with Davis Thompson granted I’m

Going to type this name in and you’re going to laugh but he’s he’s burned me the past three weeks but I mean Ryan Fox could be could be okay but Davis Thompson at least Le has the good half of the draw and uh at 81 we’ll go with KK kyama

Who also has the good half of the draw you see 10 12% here you’re probably going to duplicate this lineup a time or two um but the fact that you have the bottom three here Ben Griffin appears to be really unique Davis Thompson appears to be somewhat

Unique um this is your non Scotty lineup uh if you’re if you’re trying to beat Scotty you know seah and Tony fenale or or go tagala and SEIU toala and maybe even J day although I’m not as high on J day but the lineups that I’ve been building the

Most just super super super greed I’m going Scotty and seah doesn’t leave me much to maneuver around them I understand that but I am just so confident in both of these two players playing extremely well and I’ve been able to uh these lineup have been enabled

Because I’m willing to go down to a 5200 Rafael compos top 30 in irons yes the around the green has not been good but he’s also played these long difficult generally difficult course as well like you look at his performance at the farmers earlier this year was a top

30 in performance in Mexico pretty good he’s been great at the par 3es he’s got distance par fours at they end up mattering a little bit more he’s been really good so I like compost a lot he’s been the one that’s enabled these lineups now it’s hard for you to not

Drop into the sixes as well even though you are using a rapael compost since you’re getting super greedy in the 6ks you’ve got few options like Novak probably not as unique as you think we use Bobby Mack I really like Chandler Phillips you could also think about a

Carl Yuan who’s on the good half of the draw as well so I’m going to go with Chandler Phillips here and you really don’t have to go into the 6ks after that you got 7,400 per player here this is this is Ben Griffin and a Ryan fox or

Maybe you like a Joel Damon maybe maybe a Victor perie who’s on the good half of the draw at 7,000 now you can come up to a McKenzie Hughes who’s been very good at this tournament and on the good half of the draw so there’s a look at

A the lineups the Ty lineups that I’ve been building Scotty Scotty seah Scotty fenale I mean I might even have a Scotty and a Windham Clark lineup together or a Windham Clark and SE theala lineup I’m just limiting my use of Windham Clark after hearing about his uh back uh or

Tweaking his back when he was working out so to answer my own question the poll question I’m using Windom but reducing the amount uh so it looks like I’m the only vote in that category as well but that’s what I have for you all this evening I’ll stick around for a couple

Minutes if anyone has any questions uh about lineups or uh want to talk a little about March Madness P’s mentioned baseball which I’ll definitely be doing a little bit of baseball here pretty soon I’ve got my lineups reserved for opening day tomorrow my oneand done selection for the week uh

Despite the fact that Scotty Sheffer seems pretty obvious I’m trying to save him I say big tournament I could have used him at the API and the players or whatnot trying to save him for like the Masters or something very very difficult so I’m going to go with SE tala this

Week um so I’m going to give give give the call curse to se tala he’s now going to miss the cut considering I used Sam Burns last week at the Valar who missed the cut I used Matt fit Patrick of the players who missed the cut but um I’m

Going to go with see the go thoughts on low and Tossy so that has good value so low I did look at but the issue with Justin low is if you are able to tell me what price he is I know he’s in the 5Ks somewhere or at least I thought he was

Justus low there he is so you see he rated 30th like I did look at Justin low quite a bit the issue is he’s on the bad half of the draw he lacks quite a bit of distance he hasn’t been the best on these long courses um

So there is enough here to like the irons are fine the around the Green’s been fine he is he has the bad half of the draw that’s that’s something going against him quite a bit um generally doesn’t play long courses all that well so not not in love with Justin low due

To his circumstance I do like the player and the player would fit this way if he was on the good half of the draw I’d probably be using low and compost quite a bit but that that bad half of the draw kind of scares me away Tossy I

Don’t want any part of you see he’s one of the bottom players in my rankings a lot of red in here um there probably mentioning him because of the distance he’s got plenty of it but that is the only green metric he has at least of the ones that I’ve

Collected this week in the mixed condition model everything else is is deep red so no thanks on tosy I think I think uh lower would be interesting if you’re not afraid of the um if you’re not afraid of the the bad half of the draw dra or if

He’s your only bad half of the draw probably well worth it like to enable a Scotty sheffler lineup you could easily go Justin low and yes Scotty has the bad half the draw too but it’s freaking Scotty sheffler so like if you go Scotty and then Justin

Low you know you’re you’re still I mean you’re averaging 8,000 per in here since you’re dropping down that far you know you you can load up with a Balan is lineup in rest of this Doug gim Kirk kyama nap and McKenzie Hughes would absolutely fit um you could sneak a nine

In here easily you could probably go Tom hogy if you wanted um I’m going mention Tom hogi because he’s the most unique of the of the 9ks seemingly and you still don’t have to drop into the sixes if you don’t want to um hey good evening Gabe thanks for jump

In chat yes um so I don’t know if you or if you saw last week uh I uh I uh mentioned a little bit of of a friendly friendly contest with Gabe um and I brought shame brought shame to my name as uh it started off really well

And then uh I think Gabe play I think you placed in that I don’t remember I know we both had Ben Martin who shot a bajillion on both days um and then Keith Mitchell really killed me but uh all of the all of the marbles came down to that contest

Between Gabe and I last week and and and and gab beat me so I brought shame shame to me but yes there is there is a contest if uh if you’re interested reach out to me and I can I can invite you uh or if you are a member at

Uh gabes subda chat which you really need to um need to subscribe to that article and uh and join us in his chat uh you can reach out to him for an invitation as well uh but good to see you this evening Gabe I will be in your

Chat here momentarily when I wrap this up um be interested to hear uh I’ll be interested to hear uh your take on a few of these few of these players but but I think that’s going to do it um I appreciate p and Gabe for jumping in chat thanks to everyone else

Out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it it helps me out a lot when you do that I love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics uh giving you a statistician

And data analyst view of what he sees trying to help us win a little bit of money in the process um so again reminder that my betting card and my uh top player usage will be out on social media uh later this evening after gab’s chat and I finalize my lineups uh but

Thanks again for all the support for all the Wagers you’ve made this week for the Houston open for all the DFS contests you play this week for the Houston open for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable