On today’s show, Ryan goes over the opening lines for the Texas Children’s Houston Open, looks at host course Memorial Park and makes some early picks, including a couple of huge longshots.
Hey everybody Welcome to the Press it’s the start of a new week and we have the Houston open this week to get us ready as we get closer to the Masters I’m Ryan balie thanks for being here today and tomorrow we will talk about the Texas Children’s Houston open which is back on
The PJ tour schedule this year after taking last year off moving from the fall back to its kind of rightful place here just before the Masters we’re going to talk about that today then we will also talk about the later on the week we’ve got another slave tournament so
For the rest of the week we’ve got the LPGA in Arizona at the Ford Championship we’ve got the PGA Tour champions in an old lpj major stop in Mission Hills at the gallery classic we’ve got the DP World Tour in action at the hero Indian
Open at dlf golf and country club one of the strangest places you will ever play golf which I think you’ll find uh quite fascinating and interesting so we’ll talk about that as well there’s uh there’s plenty to get to this week so all right let’s get into it Houston open
10 of the world top 50 you’re playing this week headed by Scotty sheffler they’re playing a place called Memorial Park Golf Course and Memorial Park is a Tom Fazio Jam that Golf Course is a it’s a longer course I mean it’s 7500 yards from the tips it’s been hosting this tournament since
2020 and it’s it it’s it’s a SLO I mean it’s not easy but it favors longer players it favors ball Strikers we don’t have you know a huge set of data about it because you only had it for three years at this venue before not having it
Last year so you know it’s it’s not easy but I think we’ve got some decent Intel on this golf course and it it’s worth going kind of through all of that even though you know again 3 years worth of day it doesn’t tell you everything but
It tells you something so let’s go over the top of the board and then we’ll talk a little bit about past performance on this golf course and then we’ll talk a little bit about last week just just very briefly so let’s start with the top of the
Table that is Scotty sheffler as you might imagine he’s 3 to one to win this week man that’s terrible value I mean he was what 6 to1 six and a half to one to win the players and because the field is so much weaker compared to the Players
Championship I mean there’s he these are tiger odds because he is playing tiger level golf he isn’t Tiger I’m never going to say he’s Tiger but compared to his peers he’s playing tiger level Golf and I can promise you then the model he’s number one by a mile we haven’t
Done it yet but I promise you he is Windam Clark is second 14 to1 he’s been runner up to Scotty Sheffer the last two times out and that’s the only time in the modern PGA Tour that that’s ever happened where one guy won and the same
Guy finished runner up or co- runner up in back-to-back tournaments Tony fenal is the defending Champion here from 2022 the fall he is 18 to1 Wills Alor sah the Galler 20 to1 Jason day is 25 to1 SEI Wu Kim is 30 to1 Steve Jer 35 to1 Tom hogi
40 to1 Keith Mitchell 40 to1 Bo Hustler Alex norin also 40 to1 your 45 is Aaron Ry Tor M olison as well your 50s are Billy horel and Patrick Rogers 55 are Kirk kyama Jake knap Cam Davis I really like Jake knap this week Doug gim is 60 to1 a little
Disappointing last week but did make the cut Ben Griffin 60 to1 Luc list is 65 your 70s are Ryan Fox and Taylor Montgomery I probably pound Ryan Fox this week MC Hughes is also 70 with Davis Thompson and oay batia your 80s are Taylor Moore Daniel Burger chessen
Hadley your 90s and that’s where we’ll stop Victor Perez Tom dietry Taylor pendrith Mark hubard KH Lee who likes the Texas golf Alex mly and Adam senson now that’s I I think that’s a pretty decent little board there’s maybe a little bit of value there we’ll come back to that
Value in a minute let’s talk a little bit about this tournament the last few years so again has been here since 20 2020 was the first year Carlos Ortiz won on 13 under total Jason kokra won the next year won 10 under total Tony fenal
Won a blowout in 2022 in the fall at 16 under Total 1 by4 so far in this golf course multi-stroke victories now I think Tony feno is a little bit different really these are all a little different because they are they were fall versions of events and you don’t
Get quite as many good players you usually get more like four five or six top 50 players in these ones so temper those expectations a little bit however I I think having the the profile of golfers that you do here first of all Liv guys
Kind of like it Taylor gu is also a guy’s been in the top 15 here twice so some of the horse for course guys are are gone for the PJ tour and Tony fenal isn’t playing quite the same golf but Cod crack and fenal are kind of similar
Guys in terms of the power game Ortiz is not so maybe he’s a standout you look at that 2020 leaderboard and he’s uh you had a Dei in there if I remember right um but I I let’s just look at the 2022 so you had fenale Tyson Alexander
Ben Taylor Trey Mullen X Alex SMY Alex noren Adam hadwin Aaron Ry so and Scotty Sheffer was T9 with step jger Keith Mitchell Joe bramlet Joel Damon Justin Rose and Gary Woodland that was actually a pretty decent field I didn’t remember that but fale 1×4 again so mix your players in here
Some guys that are bombers like Tyson Alexander TR molx some Sheffer Mitchell bramlet Woodland but also a mix of guys who aren’t as far like Alex SMY or Alex norin adwin Ry joerger so I don’t think this is necessarily a particular style you know favor for one
Style or the other so keep that in mind but if we look at the last three years of when this tournament was played so I actually have to change that real quick so if you you got 2021 2022 and 2023 Seasons when they were played so you’ve got three years worth of that
Data and you look at who’s done what in the tournament so you’ve got Sam Burns who’s been there twice um you got and he’s not in the field you’ve got Joel Damon who’s been there twice Fifth and Ninth in the last two versions playing okay had a good
Week at the Players Tony fow has been a winner here you have really not much else to go off of Steph jger again was ninth we just talked about him there is not a lot to work with here Scotty Sheffer of course Alex SMY has been here twice though fourth in 2022
15th in 2021 different quality of players so maybe maybe that’s your bet I mean that’s 90 to one that’s that’s a decent bit of value I suppose other yeah there’s just not much to work with here lots of onetime top 15 finishes that’s it’s going to be a tough
Week it’s going to be a tough week so it’s uh yeah this is going to be a hard betting week to be honest with you so we’re probably going to have to rely a little bit more on current form right and I I think there can be some parallel
Some between inisbrook and here you got to put the ball in play but Fazio is a little a little bit more or um do is a little bit more um wide open right a little bit more wide open and man it’s going to be a hard week so
Again looking at that board Scotty Sheffer is going to stand out to people because he’s one of the few horse for course plays I think you have to consider continuing to play Windam Clark he does seem to be in good form uh I don’t love him as much in Texas but
I think he can handle this pretty well zator is’s putting was horrible at the Players again kind of like turned back into a pumpkin that might be something to stay away from I do like sah theala here does have a good imagination can handle the wind well when that arrives I
Do like that play I think quite a bit Jason day’s been playing well I mean it it’s he doesn’t win very often right I mean he won Once In The Last 5 Years or whatever it is but and that was last year but it was in Texas and that means
Something on a much easier Golf Course though but overall he if you look at his form for the year it Strokes gain wise it is very good so I think that’s worth a look do you believe in the bounceback because Keith Mitchell was horrible on Sunday at valbar I mean just absolute
Demolition and it was bad from the get-go do you believe in that bounceback or do you think he just flumix for weeks now Tom hogi has an opportunity to to get into the top 50 in the world he he’s playing pretty good golf I think that’s a decent value at 40 to1
I’m not betting Steph jger until he wins I don’t I just principal play you can bet a top 10 on them those odds aren’t posted yet here at DraftKings but I’m not not betting Steph jger no thank you I do like Aaron Ry a lot I like him more
Than I should but 45 to1 is just not good enough for me I’d rather play torbjorn olison at that number Kirk kyama at 55 I would be happy to play I think Jake knap is your value of the week though because I think you can hit
The crap out of it on this golf course not quite with the same impunity that you can at venant viarta but here you can hit it really hard and so long as you just keep it out of water and OB you’re fine I I think he can do a lot of
Damage here this week might become a two-time winner in very short order to that and I think Luke list is an interesting play too he kind of comes out of nowhere he has the putt pretty well well he has the putt better than bad which is what he usually does but at
65 to1 I think he’s valued enough to be a good play Ryan Fox is a bomber very I mean he looks in a lot of ways like Jason kokra Plays a lot like Jason kokra I do like his style here I feel like his game can can associate well in Houston
At Memorial Park so I will probably bet him at 70 to1 Tom dietre is kind of interesting had decent little players I I I do like that do you like Victor Perez also I do like the European guys being pretty flexible did mention Alex SMY he is your kind of horse for course
So to speak so maybe he’s a guy worth looking at solely for that reason Peter Mady just won he’s 110 to one no no respect and it’s honestly for good reason he’s he’s probably not going to do very much this week Scott Stallings is interesting to me because he played
Pretty well at valbar which is of course he likes that might Inspire some confidence 110 to1 could be worth a look I mean we got to keep looking down the board here Joseph bramlet again bomber player he should be so much better than
He is I I wish he were uh but 131 is kind of interesting to me for him he had a decent week at the Valar his link should be rewarded here at this golf tournament so I I do like him at that 130 one number I’m going to keep liking Alex Bor
Even if it’s for onet of a unit because he keeps getting in this 130 150 to one range he never seems to move up well he also just he’s not a good putter so if he ever puts it together for four rounds where he’s not a bad putter he’s going
To win one I I promise you that he can do it Gary Woodland I think is still too early in his comeback Andrew Novak 150 to1 I think is worth a look he’s probably cooled off now though but it might be worth a look do you want to consider a Texan like
Parker CTI at 180 to one that I mean if you want someone out of nowhere for no good reason there’s one I mean we talked about last week the Stewart sink 36 holes at 400 to1 I like oh man some crazy stuff’s about to happen here and
Then obviously he fell back to to Earth but I think you have to consider some guys like that maybe Matty Schmid had decent last couple of weeks 200 to one again kind of hard to bet a guy that doesn’t win uh Nick dunlap’s 250 to1 he’s going
To figure it out eventually I I don’t know if this is the week to do it Bronson bergon is kind of interesting to me because he’s a he’s a Masher 250 to1 could be kind of interesting Tyson Alexander who played well here last year was the runner up 300
To1 maybe that’s a worth the look we talked about Adrien Dante chess art and again early leaderboards give you hope he was what 350 to1 or something last week I was like yeah that’s going to be pretty good and he’s one under through like five holes and then he finishes the
Round like three over all right well that’s not going to work out that was a bad idea C Taran showed up pretty okay 350 to1 maybe he’s working his way out of this funk long hitter I do like betting him at this crazy length of odds
Because for even if for two or three bucks if he hits you’re doing great uh whatever your bed size is but I mean even that could be like a for me a whole unit is $50 usually so even if I had a 5% unit and he wins you still have a
Nice chunk of change more than pays for your bets you have a nice little week there so I I think that’s worth a look Mt Meisner is kind of interesting to me at 500 to1 he play seems to play like his best golf in Florida to be truthful and he’s struggling right now
On the PGA tour he’s 144th in the FedEx Cup but he played really well last year he shot a 59 last year on the corn fairy tour he struggled out the gate three Mis Cuts in a row put him behind the eightball t53 at at PJ
National First Cash of the year t23 at PTO Rico t26 last week might be figuring some things out his opening rounds are bad 70 other than the American Express where he opened 65 that doesn’t count 74 72 72 73 73 first rounds are bad last three times he’s played well though he’s
Rallied second round 68 65 68 third round not so good 70 71 73 Final Round Nothing to Lose 69 67 67 if he could just figure out first rounds this guy’s got a chance he can play pretty well 5001 is quite deep for a guy I think
That that is pretty good so that’ll probably be my my weird Hammer of the week Christopher Ventura though oh man they’re going to get me on this Christopher Ventura is playing well on the corn fairy tour at the moment at the Columbia tournament he was 65th in Panama he was
T36 at the ibako tournament t27 Exuma missed the cut but when Crystal bald Del re shot 57 I mean he shot 62 that day he has it in him it’s in there and he hits the crap out of the ball Oklahoma State guy 800 to1 is a lot I I understand
Maybe it’s like a pizza bet like A1 or2 then you can buy a lot of pizza if it hits or maybe you look at him once they come out on a top 10 or top 20 bet you probably still get really good number on him I think that is worth a look this
Week I know I like to bet outrights he might be worth your derivative even a top 40 play just get to the weekend I know he can beat people so if you want a couple of super megas this week it’s Chris Ventura at 800 to1 but again I
Would look more 20s and 40s Mt Meisner though I would consider winning and a top 20 because he’s been playing well starting to figure out how to kind of bounce back from the bad opening round now he needs to figure out how to play a good opening round and we got something
So just getting on that MC Meisner train now uh the rest of the week we will talk about and and I’m actually going to do most of the work for the week after we do this podcast because I’m traveling tomorrow afternoon so I’m going to try
To have everything ready for you uh G&M members by this afternoon as much as I possibly can at least uh the the D DFS prices won’t be out there yet so that’ll be a Tuesday project while I’m sitting at the airport terminal but try to get
The model out to you try to get everything else out to you for the week and then we’ll talk about that tomorrow again that’ll probably be a a later podcast to be honest with you um but I I’ll try to get it done maybe I’ll try
To do it after I do the model here I don’t know how it’ll exactly work out but we’ll get it done you’ll have it for tomorrow and then on Wednesday we will talk about the Indian open which I love that golf course it’s so weird it’s fascinating dlf golf country club got
The LPGA in Arizona at a new venue new course that would be a little bit difficult to figure out but it’s a good field and then we got the Champions at the gallery classic again like two minutes on that and then we’ll come back to the Masters just like we did last
Week I thought that was helpful for people the feedback seem to be good so we’ll talk about that again next week or on Wednesday this week all right you got any questions for me Ryan atth golfnet.com on Twitter threads X Instagram Blue Sky Ryan Bal I’m on Facebook and YouTube at Ryan baly
Golf golf news Net’s on all of those services and handle golf Newsnet you can join golf Newsnet for $40 a year it’s a great time to get involved we’re just about to get into the Masters and if you get it now it re-ups every year automatically at
$40 but it will reup in perpetuity at $40 I I grandfather you in whatever price you paid when you started is the price you keep paying so if we raise it to $50 next year or $60 you’re getting it for 40 in perpetuity I don’t even
Think about it so it be a good time to get in and it would cover you until the Master’s next year so or just before the Masters next year so you’re getting you know a pretty decent little run of all the majors get good time to get involved
All right we’ll be back tomorrow with another show thanks so much for listening I appreciate it we catch you next time on the Press