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What is up everybody thank you for joining Nick and I here today for the Texas Children’s Houston open Nick we’ve decided to go live once again for the show uh if you want to do so be sure to jump into the chat ask us any questions about this tournament we would be more
Than glad to answer any of those questions but before we get into all of our favorite Fades plays and opinions for this week’s event two things Nick that I very quickly want to mention for everyone listening so first off I want to thank wi daily Sports and Jason Mahi
For once again letting us go live on their platform here at wi daily go check out all of their stuff real quick I didn’t even asked permission so we can still thank him but you know better to ask forgiveness than permission in this life is uh we well we’ve stolen so Jason
Thank you for letting us steal the platform here today so uh but if you’re not doing so already check out wi daily I was on their draft cast last night the entire site is buzzing with all the content that they have for All Sports Nick I know you’re going to get back
Into football at some points in in a couple months here so be sure to check out everything that Nick does for wind daily for football and then second if you’re not doing so already sign up with the code bgp at Underdog fantasy they have drafts higher lower options their
Fun Rivals feature that places players against one another for you to choose who will be better that week all those options are available for you to play the game how you want once again code bgp gets you 100% match bonus of up to $100 if you have any questions about all
The great perks of Underdog feel free to contact either myself on Twitter at T sports or Nick stick piix uh Nick how are you doing this week I don’t know I mean last week was kind of a disaster on the mme side of things again three bad weeks in a
Row I don’t really know uh we took a week off of the show last week again but uh I I don’t know I don’t really know what to think about this field I’m seeing Scotty right now at 52% ownership and my odds I had him at like 3.2 to1 so
It’s like we would refuse to bet him for the most part when he was sub 10 to1 besides you had uh the player or API right apis when you had them which was fantastic but I I can’t bet someone when I have a marked at three and a half to
One even when the odds are shorter than that in the real market so I don’t know it’s tough I will go over my quick betting card real fast it’s very minimal I tailed you with Max gracer he’s also on my season long fantasy team which I
Am in first place not going to no need to talk about that um Grayson Sig top 40 over at B MGM where Tai’s pay in full at plus 140 I think that’s it’s I wouldn’t say anything’s a safe bet especially with me and my placement record this year which used to
Be my bread and butter and that’s kind of been pissing me off a little bit but with good bankroll management it’s still been a manageable year I just so many second place finishes again last week with Cam young um but we don’t need to complain we’ll keep moving on and then
Then stepen jger at 50 to1 but yeah the max Grazer numbers at 250 to1 we will talk about him when we get down the board on the DFS side of things but overall just really excited for Augusta I think I’ve kind of mentioned that too like the the Florida swing has never
Really been that beneficial for me I’ve just historically not done very well there I think maybe the Honda are cognizant now has been an event that’s been okay for me the API a couple years ago was good but other than that it just
It is what it is I don’t think had a lot of success in the Texas run I feel like I’ve played Brian Harmon way too many times in the Texas run oh [ __ ] I didn’t even want to mention his name Brian Harmon last week dude oh my God like last
Week and this pisses me off too like last week was a contrarian dream I don’t know if any chalk got across the pay or the the cut line maybe Nick Taylor and he was kind of like mid-range in comparison to who was around him but man
If you just faded anybody 20% or higher last week you were probably in fantastic shape hoping obviously you know I don’t even know if you needed melti to be that successful in DFS last week if you went heavy on cam young which was one of the
Guys I wrote about and one of the guys I went extremely heavy on in DFS but other than that I went like I had combinations of Brian Harmon and Cameron young everywhere so I think we’re at the point where we Blacklist Brian Harmon for me I think
It’s just I’d rather just never have them than to go overweight and it just and it just di in my face so another long answer when I thought I’d give you like a one minute answer I would love for this to be a quick show but now you got me ventic I’m pretty
Pissed off again it’s Brian [ __ ] Harmon every time like form’s great iron play could not be in a better spot and then miscut but there was volatility with the weather too so maybe there’s like a DFS lesson to be learned there when the weather’s pretty crazy kind of
Just go away from the ownership but I don’t know it is what it is so we go ahead unless you got something to talk about on your card CU actually I think you do you do have did you ever get a match up yet no I never found one that
Is a red flag right there Spencer does not have a pre-tournament matchup so um would like to give kudos to him for bankroll management though and not forcing to play I think regardless of like you and I’s like personal results that’s always been something that we’ve
Tried to preach is like don’t force a card for the record like let me see what I even have at risk right now 1.2 units honestly I’ll probably bet something live throughout the weekend but I don’t see myself punching any tickets pre- tournament after this this gu sounds
Soes yeah [ __ ] Brian harm if you if you’re new to the show One thanks for for hopping in we don’t go live often but yeah if uh if you want to listen like the last hundred episodes I’m sure I just talk about Brian Haron and how I
Can’t stand them and then I go all in on Brian Haron last week in 150 lineups and gone I am thankful that I didn’t take on that much blame from you I was expecting for my phone to just be bombarded with messages of how did you convince me to play Brian Haron once
Again I did it to myself I did it to myself to talk me into it I think it’s reached the point right now too Nick where it’s like it’s happened so many times with Brian Harmon that you’re almost I mean I guess maybe not outwardly but you almost are
Desensitized to it in in the inside of yourself here so I don’t know it’s I think you mentioned a really good point though like we are a very contrarian podcast and you would expect last week to be the perfect tournament for US based off of that and uh everything that
Could have gone wrong pretty much did but you know as you said bankroll management is key it’s all about finding value it’s for not forcing bets when you’re in situation so uh we’ll move forward we will move into this week’s event I don’t know if it’s necessarily
The best board to talk about here but we can start at the top here with Scotty Sheffer and that 40 to 50% number and what are we doing there I see 47% I’m out I’m principal and like there’s nothing like we can’t say anything wrong about Scotty 13k and again and Windham Clark
Apparently is battling some potential back injuries keep an eye on that it sounds like he’s going to play but it’s like you take Windam out maybe like if he withdraws like tonight or something like that then maybe I think Scotty has a lot more sex appeal I mean he’s got
All the sex appeal in the world the guy’s just fantastic it’s a ball Striker’s course I like everything about his game is in fantastic form I it’s say aggregate ownership right now is 45% the problem with the pricing Nick is while 13,000 is more expensive than anybody that we’ve ever gotten it also
Is in this new Pace scale where we’re going down to the $5,000 range which is more conducive of what players should be in general when pricing is that I think this is very soft pricing and I think a guy like Max graser and there’s a couple others it’s not just him make fitting
Scotty in very simple um and I still think you can come up with a rather unique I mean when you’re starting with Scotty at 45% how unique are you actually getting there I I just I mean what is the downside of Scotty at this point like we made every
Single a free Square we made every argument of why not to play him at the Players Championship and it was a volatile course where there’s been these mixed and match results and Scotty just goes and wins in in backtack years so I don’t know I mean his ball striking
Right now is at such an elite level I don’t even want to have it be able to be on a podcast where it can be clipped where I’m saying not to play Scotty so I think that’s just a decision that everybody’s gonna have to make out there
If you play Scotty you’re gonna have to find a way to get very unique and different I don’t think playing Scotty and Andrew Novak and all those guys in the 6000s that have a lot of popularity is necessarily the route to go because that’s going to be what everybody tries
To do there but I do think there are $6,000 golfers if you are trying to get unique I like your mentality with sahit theala I think for me that’s probably the player that I have the most Intrigue to and I I even have Intrigue and I think it’s possible to make builds with
Sheffer and theala together and then just go super volatile with the plays down beneath like there’s a Nate Lashley there’s a Max G graser there’s there’s a lot of different options that are going to be you know sub five% that I think have legitimate upside in this
Tournament so I think those are my two favorite plays at the top even with the Scotty ownership and normally I’m trying to find a reason to fade but I I don’t know Nick I I can’t even get myself to give that answer this week yeah no and I’m not giving that answer
Either I’m just telling you guys where I’m at but yeah Scotty shuer like he’s a walking top five at worst at this point so yeah if you if you like the bottom of the board I I think that’s absolutely you just lock him in and and live with
It and find the guys that you like but really the only guys I’d liked at the bottom of the board were Max and and Grayson Sig and Grayson Sig I talk about his lack of upset often maybe this is a a track where he could
Get a top 20 with this water down field I really like bramlet I guess at 6600 but he’s extremely volatile too so i’ feel like I’d rather take these guys that have like a you know 25 35 45 55 impr priv probab probability of making
The cut because I just think that a lot of people are going to get five of six this week if they do four Scotty is kind of like the the the theory I’m going with so if that works out I think well-rounded like even if Scotty gets 30
You got a Mis cut if I go higher mid-tier well-rounded I think that that’s I’m okay sleeping at night knowing that’s the decision I made uh is there anybody else what are your thoughts on will Z indifferent I I mean I I think pricing in general like my models Sheffer Clark
Theala zalatoris fenal that’s the exact top five of the DraftKings board I think everybody got priced more or less correctly I would make the argument that Sheffer is probably a little bit too cheap with this new Pace scale that we have but um I I don’t have a massive
Take one way or another it always makes it easier when we can cross off a name or two that my model is lower on but I didn’t necessarily have that answer like zalot torus is probably my least preferred option of all the names 10,000 plus like even with Windam I think he
Now loses some ownership after the answer that he’s given about his back definitely I’m I’m more inclined to want to play him that’s kind of where mind mind goes with it and I understand that there’s risk that comes into play but if Windam now all of a sudden becomes a sub
15% sort of option he was the biggest threat to Scotty before that injury came into play so I think Clark makes some sense still I’m not going to necessarily jump off because of what has been said I mean we we saw Scotty at the Players not be able to move and look
Like he was going to withd draw from the tournament and then still went on and won it from back in the pack so I don’t know golf is a weird sports like I’ve watched too much golf over the last 10 years of Jason day on the ground every
Other shot and him getting through most of these tournaments to know that these guys usually can fight through the pain yeah so we got the the new driver narrative for Tony feno which is enough for me to go all the way back in um looking at pricing real quick looks like
Bet 365 has wiie as a substantial favorite over Tony fow the rest of the market disagrees be Chris has Tony fow as a 20-point favorite in now one bet online same situation bada very similar there uh the cambi shops have will zot Taurus also as a favorite over feno but
The rest of the market Pinnacle feno over zotus do you think there’s any value in fading zot Taurus in this legal Market where the sharper offshores seem to think that fina’s a way to go I mean I think that kind of gives you the answer of where the money’s coming in
And where the sharp movement is occurring there every single notable book that I would deem to be sharp has feno as the favorite every single book that’s a Square in the market has zalot Tores I think when you’re trying to figure out a close decision between the
Two it’s a very easy way to push it in the fenale direction and I also inside my model it’s not a massive difference I think fena will be lower owned even it’s if it’s by a percent or two you can tell me what numbers you have there Nick but
I have about a two% difference yeah I got fale 15 Wills Urus right around 18 yeah yeah about what I have for full disclosure my single entry goes the galao yeah so all right let’s go to um lower nine so let’s go 95 and below I like Jason day he’s my pick and
One and done this week mainly because I already burned feno um I I don’t think I used the gala but I’m assuming that he’s going to be insanely popular do you believe that to be true and want it done yeah I think I I think there’s a massive
Reason to believe that theala will probably be the most popular oneand done pick because nobody’s going to want to play Scotty here regardless of being three to one there’s not enough money the wi if you still have him too like people used him yeah yeah I think Windam
Clark has completely taken himself off the map with the injury news and I also think that there’s a narrative to be said that there’s not enough money in this tournament for him to begin with and now all of a sudden you throw an injury into the mix on something that is
Final one and DS you need to get the player correct because if you don’t in our contest that we’re in together I ended up with Scotty Sheffer at the century and while I wanted to play him at the API and I’m kicking myself before the tournament even starts I can’t get
The Scotty there so you have to be very careful with these decisions I think the Gula becomes the very natural point where everybody pivots to I think zalot torus is going to carry some ownership himself um I don’t know I mean when we drop lower than that there’s probably
Names like sewo yeah that are going to be pretty popular I like SEIU Nick and maybe this is a flaw in my model where I kind of get caught in this my model is higher than usually what public perception is but now this week public perception also agrees with my model so
Um I think there’s an argument to be made that SEIU might be a little bit expensive and carrying a little bit too much ownership but I mean he’s a top 10 projected play in my model no matter how I shook it um it’s really hard for me to
Get off of him this week yeah I mean he’s a slight dog to theala even to Tony feno at DraftKings so take that for what it’s ever worth but massive favorites over well-respected guys this week being stephener Keith Mitchell Alex norren Kirk kyama I guess is kind of respected
And then Jason day Kama Kama has a bunch of respect BS that I fall like in the outright Market specifically I’ve seen that number declining throughout the entire day so I I I think that there’s if you’re going to be an underdog to like the two best players in the field
Give or take that are not Scotty Sheffer like that’s completely fine I forgive that one yeah so see Kim absolutely striping the ball has gained Strokes he’s got to be top 10 in ball striking in every single tournament he’s played since Sony like lighting it up off the
Te not missing any Fairways comes down to the putter strok SC approach fantastic honestly the scrambling I believe this is the best scrambling and maybe not scrambling like statistically if you go to pj2 or CBS but like his short game around the green has been fantastic which has always been a strong
Suit in his game putter yeah absolutely so lit it up on the greens at the Players other than that has kind of been bleeding Strokes for the most part putting um besides Waste Management looks like he gained there but yeah I have absolutely nothing bad to say about
Seuk Kim I think he’s very affordable ownership where do I see SEIU 20ish I don’t know it’s like I love SEIU but when I play seu he’s always like 5% own that’s kind of my only concern to this I have them at 19% so right in the
Same range you do I do think there’s an argument to be made that this popularity has gotten a little extreme for a player that the putter is still not where you want it to be like at least with feno I can look at three consecutive tournaments of him being neutral or
Better with the Putter and we know the ball striking with him like I’m going to ignore what he did last week I think that was just a weird tournament for every single player in the field but um I mean for get ownership for a second I think Fina would be my favorite player
In the 9000s seu would be second which is now you can make the argument that ownership all of a sudden pushes him down and I I would probably agree with you I I I think Jason day is every bit under consideration for what he brings to this event this week 9,400 Alex norin
On principal probably just have to be out I don’t think I could pay 9,400 Alex noron I know he’s playing fantastic too but I I just don’t feel like I’m gonna pay a premium win guys like like even Keith Mitchell I think the market will be down on just because of the collapse
On Sunday I think it’s a really good course for him he has been playing a ton of golf lately but like Jager and Tom hogi I know your model really likes him the approach numbers on any course for him are probably going to be fantastic but I’d
Rather have Jason day or seuk Kim for 100 or $300 more it’s kind of the same answer I would give for every single player that’s I in In fairness I gave the three most expensive players in fow seu and day there’s a reason probably why I would rather play them in general
They’re also more expensive but I also would rather just move up and the pace scale and I think they’re better plays than norin Mitchell hogi I think those three are probably all very similar at the end of the day think you probably made a pretty good point about Mitchell
But I I don’t see anything vastly different between Mitchell and norin to push me one way or the other this is wild the um spin rate so this is something that I like personally look at all the time for myself and my spin rate is below 3,000 but I hit a draw Tony
Feno hits a cut I obviously don’t have 185 ball speed though like they do so pretty wild 3,000 is it like when I hit a ball at 3,000 spin rate I I get upset because I probably cut it or hit it too high but yeah um pretty cool that’s
That’s nuts I can’t believe he didn’t change his chef and if obviously that’s something that I feel like I would get mad at they’d pick that up in one hour and go go to the shop and change it out but all right having said that 9,000 and
Below let’s go 8,000 9,000 so we got Jake nap down at the bottom Kirk kyama getting a ton of ownership now Doug gim seems like everybody again he was Chuck himim last week no one’s going to play him this week I see like 10% for a guy
That’s again if you just want to throw away the sample size of last week would be as good as feno right now in the ball striking numbers Billy horel probably just out Patrick Rogers no one ever likes playing him I always think there’s upside but he’s his numbers for me
Aren’t looking great for recency bias um Bo Hustler what are your thoughts I’m booster like I feel like again like the market [ __ ] loved to start the year not really doing anything with the iron play always going to be a good driver of the golf ball he kind of always has been
But Putter’s great short game’s good but iron play is just kind of like he was priced in like the mid to low sevens to start the season and favored over guys in the low eights so it’s like the market loved him but I think it’s kind
Of coming back down to life so not a not a course fit for Hustler here what are your thoughts I I don’t think it’s a course fit I mean In fairness I haven’t necessarily thought it’s been a course fit this entire year in a lot of spots
And I think I was willing to forgive that when we saw the kind of form he was putting together and my model runs things from a very long-term duration of time and it didn’t necessarily take fully into account some of these changes that hosler had made with the driver
Adding distance and some of the approach play numbers that had gotten better um I was willing to throw all that out the window but now all of a sudden when you’ve gone miscut Miss cut he’s missed both cuts at this tournament like if I’m G to try to get contrarian here I would
Rather just do it with Aaron Ry or Doug gim and just jump back into two players that were very popular last week that the market seems to move the other way on and I don’t think it’s like if if I’m if we’re gonna give the answer Nick and
We’re doing it for all the high-end players of like aale or I mean Sam Burns he’s not in this tournament this week but like there’s so many names that miss the cut 30% own again last week Miss cut too right yeah it’s I’m just not going to look into what
Happened last week and put much into it Ry and gim were two of the hottest players coming into that event I think the price tag is honestly Fair on what we’re getting on DraftKings I think in this like mid $8,000 range is where it should be and I think this sub 10%
Ownership Mark more or less of what we’re seeing here is is a very very nice opportunity to bet on some of both the safety and the upside that I have in my model so um that those are going to be two names that I’m very exposed
To I say this every single week Nick and you’ve heard this for two straight years now my model loves Steven jger and every single tournament that we play I the one thing I’m always looking for with joerger is what happens with the putter on similar green complexes because we
Know that the ball striking can be elite at any single time that he teas it off but it’s that putter that can go the wrong direction he does have the ability to spike with the flat stick here and there and anytime that he does spike is
Where we get get those big results so 70th in my model and expected putting on any course he jumps all the way up to 37th at this venue that’s the kind of increase that I’m looking for because I’ve said this a million times about a million different players but how you
Win a golf tournament and and this is a little bit more highend of a golfer than usually the names I’m talking about but how you win a tournament as like a 40 50 or Worse golfer in a field is you’re an elite ball Striker who’s able to get hot
With the putter that week and then you all of a sudden put together one of those Cory Connor’s 250 to1 Valero Texas open wins or Adam senson when when he won at the RSM a couple years ago like this is more of that like high-end profile with joerger when you’re looking
At that but I think there’s a real big argument to be made that because of this lack of perceived win Equity that joerger carries to the public he’s probably a 35 to1 golfer that got drifted into this like 45 50 55 to1 range out a lot of books just because
People don’t necessarily want to back a guy who has not won on the PGA tour and any time that he’s come close this year wasn’t able to get the job done but I actually thought that the two top three finishes that he put together was an encouraging sign for somebody that had
Won six times on the corn fairy tour in his career so um I thought joerger was one of the best values on the board in any Market that we’re talking about I dig it he is in my lineup as we speak anybody like low eights you like
Anybody a lot or or just kind of like the contrarian route of Doug gim makes sense in like mme style contest Jake nap anything like that I I have a lot of ownership around nap I don’t know what you see nap I see 12 like I I see 14 I think
That’s really high um from what I was anticipating him being so that moved me off of him I was planning to play nap thinking I was going to get contrarian with the play when this got into the 13 14% range I decided to move off of him I
Mean we’re splitting hairs here between ownership percentages like at sub 10 percent I would have been in all of a sudden now you get it up here I’m out but no Nick I think it’s just Ryan gim and joerger are probably the three in the 8 thousands that I’m going to play
Um specifically with Ryan gim those are like the two contrarian routes to really get a bit different from builds that are going to be put together all right let’s go to sevens so Cameron Davis I don’t I’m seeing mixed ownership I I would assume no one plays them every is going
To go to Taylor Moore who looks fantastic I have nothing wrong to say about him trying to like this is the route to get different in my opinion um Davis Thompson have you seen the steam I was gonna text you this earlier so Taylor Montgomery going into the week
Let’s see what his matchups were it’s getting steamed by everybody even the Golf Channel talked about Ste uh Taylor Montgomery being a good course fit because of the putter um I guess expected stroke stia green looked decent for me but I’m just not a Taylor Montgomery guy I don’t think he’s that
Good a ball Striker at all he is now a 20po dog to Davis Thompson who I was surprised you did not bet this week in terms of upside and like yeah distance matters a lot here I think you could buy mouge missing the Fairway probably not
As bad with that Ry that rye Ru that Roberto was talking about but I still think there’s a little bit of a premium to hitting Fairways and he hits it long and he hits Fairways one of the answers I gave last week Nick and and unfortunately like
Like last week I think there were a lot of plays that we talked about that made logical sense and even played out maybe in the fashion that we thought not not every single one I didn’t expect Justin lower to pull out from the tournament after 18 holes but when you look at
Davis Thompson and maybe this is what I deserve when you fade web Simpson in a matchup I had Davis Thompson against web Simpson and web made a cut I think it was like I always thought it was like a fringe position it was going to be 50-50
Whether he did and he put the pieces together on Friday to get into the weekend and really did nothing once he did but you look at what Davis Thompson did three overpar 108th on the leaderboard he was so bad with his short game my model thought he should have
Been inside the top 10 on the leaderboard when I took some of the Baseline expected totals that I had for him around the green and putting and I mixed it in with the ball striking that he did provide so him and Ben Silverman were the two names that just completely
Lit themselves on fire when I think they were playing very good golf so for me those are two names that are very intriguing to move here on DraftKings and I did notice the steam that hit Davis Thompson I think it makes a lot of sense it’s almost like when he first got
Released in the market all you see are like the consecutive miscuts that he had but then all of a sudden you dive into the profile of what Thompson did last week and you’re like well this is a golfer that whenever he can show his ball striking Acumen really Rises to the to
The top of a lot of these boards when it comes to those ball striking returns so I think Tom Thompson at the price is probably one of the better values on the board of what you’re going to get down there and there’s a lot of ownership in this $7,000 range that
Makes it interesting on what the optimal build is because you said more McKenzie Hughes is gonna carry ownership um I mean between the two I probably like Hughes more who sorry Luke list as well I’ll I’ll take Taylor Mo over MC Hughes I’m not believer MC Hughes I will take I’ll
Probably take both of them over Luke list I’m just not a luk list person like same I guess puding matters here like Strokes SK puding has obviously it matters everywhere we talk about that often but it seems like it’s a good separation here is guys that can get hot
With the butter and I’m not playing Team No putt so I think that’s why the market loves Taylor Montgomery I like Taylor Montgomery like that’s a we’ve talked about that a little bit though so that’s not me NE I I I get it and we talked about it even a little bit
Yesterday on the action show that was the closest to a matchup that I was going to punch it was either going to be batia over list or Montgomery over list and my model there are certain players where my model when it is aggressively against that player it’s correct think
McKenzie Hughes would probably be one of those answers like anytime I want F Hughes it works anytime that I won a fade list I mean he’s won a golf tournament when he was my biggest fade candidate that I had so I’m not so sure that my model is quite accurate with
List plus he has the distance that you would want for this course if it’s going to be this overseed Bermuda where it plays a little bit softer and he can use that distance to his Advantage I do think he’s a little bit more enticing than he normally would be for that
Reason so while I’m not going to play him I understand the sentiment around him more than some of these other names and that’s ultimately why I got out of a matchup against him but um as you said at the beginning of this show Nick if I
Cannot find a match up that’s where you know how bad the board is because it’s just me trying to find every reason to not bet a tournament at that point yep I’m I’m with it man all right let’s go 7K and Below Andrew Novak probably gon
To be seven to 12% range is kind of where I’m seeing it I I just put him at 10 for mine probably like I don’t know I don’t play 6K guys that are 10% but this tournament I don’t think will be very Valle weather’s good not we get into not
Many whatever hey bring her on uh not much penal you know like you’re not going to drop shots and stuff like that like I don’t know not penalties right like OB doesn’t happen often if at all so I don’t know I guess it’s okay maybe a better week to play punsh chalk but
There’s really not a whole lot of guys that I like in this range Peter Madia whatever SMY I’m still a Believer Sam Ryder is fine I think I’d rather still play Andrew no back over those guys maybe a guy take a shot on as Joseph bramlet yeah Taylor pendrith does he
Have any life at all or is his game just broken the upside numbers of my model continue to like him the form is horrendous yeah but I mean yeah no that’s I was trying to tell myself I can play him I like Grayson Sig I’m okay
With it if he’s four to six% range I think Grayson Sig is goingon to make make the cut I’m gonna plant the flag with you on the 0% guy of Max graer this week if you had to choose price agnostic Stephen jger he would
C i what are we trying to get out of this just better finish if you force me to say which golfer is going to have a better finish I will say sew Kim if I’m actually trying to shoot for as much upside as I
Can I guess I’ll go with the Jager I I worry a little bit about what Jagger’s produced recently like two miscuts I know it’s during the Florida swing but um I know Fairways at the events that he missed and that makes sense for him like
He’s not gonna be great at a very tight course I think what SEIU has put together is very impressive um I think it’s much more likely that he gives you a steady finish if you’re looking for a made cut and then let’s move into the weekend and see what happens but um it
Kind of comes down to for me I’m trying to shoot for as much value and upside as I can so when I saw joerger be one of the biggest climbers in my model for upside you mix that all of a sudden with the reduced price tag
You’re going to save $800 there plus in the outright Market you’re going to get about 20 points more it’s kind of what pushed me towards joerger in that spot but I I think they’re both good plays okay anybody you you absolutely love in the 6K range other than I mean I don’t
Know if you if I I don’t want to quote you saying you love grayser man I just think it’s a great price and the ball is just fantastic and he absolutely bombs it off the tea so I think he can make this place which is already a short
Track in general very very short and get to his wedge game which has been pretty good so I like the upsid profile we got in him I think there’s a couple options to consider um I guess the question that I would ask you before answering that the two most popular players look
Like they’re going to be Andrew Novak Joseph bramlet is that what you see yeah it’s two I like so I think think I I’ll probably let Bram beat me I’ll probably play Novak I do like the form I know he missed a cut two weeks ago at Players
Right is when he went belly up but last week was fantastic SMY here SMY is interesting just in the answer that on Monday and my model doesn’t necessarily like him but he was one of the most owned players when I initially ran this on Monday and then all of a
Sudden every everybody got off of him I think it’s like the name value maybe early what about Scott Stallings broke up with his caddy I I’m out on Stallings I think my that was when I was Scott Stallings I don’t know why it just when I miscut or a top 20 like that’s
All this guy does more times than that miscut though when I was looking for the worst values in my model uh theor born olison Luke list Scott Stallings Ryan Fox Cameron Champ Stuart sink Hayden Buckley like these were guys that either like for Hayden Buckley I thought he
Should be mid price like that’s kind of just options that I want no exposure to I unfortunately would probably say that outside of graser and maybe Chandler Phillips I like Chandler Phillips this week also I think that what he produced was more legitimate than he’s being given credit for and I
Think it’s a very similar answer that we can talk about here with Andrew Novak to where you know Novak has put together what four top 17 finishes in the past five tournaments and really the players is the one that’s the abnormal volatile One to begin with where everybody
Struggles at the end of the day and there’s really no consistency there so I think markets have been slow to move on Novak and I think there’s an argument to be made that the same play is coming into account here with Chandler Phillips so I don’t think Novak’s ownership
Granted yes I don’t want to necessarily get caught playing 10% $6,000 golfers repeat L I think this new pricing that they have Novak if this would have been a $6,000 is the bare minimum price Novak is what in this field probably like 7500 yes I would say at least at least
7700 somewhere in that range so like now all of a sudden you have a 10% owned golfer that really should be I think he even should be an $88,000 golfer with the way he’s playing but like a high $7,000 golfer I don’t think that sort of
Chalk is as bad in a lot of these spots and I think that there’s a lot to like about his game usually for me if there’s a player even if there’s going to be a lot of ownership down here that ends up cracking the top 15 of my model with
Certain ways that I’m running it and my model is never that vastly different from what the books are releasing like when you get these slight discrepancies they mean a lot for me so for Novak to jump into the top 15 in almost all of the iterations of how I built it and
Then obviously when I go into the back end and I include some of the sportsbooks totals he drops a little bit but when I’m just running my pure numbers from the mix and Novak is grading off the charts I’m more inclined to be willing to eat the chalk in those
Spots so I I actually think the ownership is still too light at 10% damn okay anybody in the fives the fives gets pretty gross um I like one guy liked him I’ve liked him often it’s not Bridgeman I assume it’s MC m it is I like him do you think he will
Have owner like his profile if I take away the name and obviously take away long-term data because this other player I’m going to compare him to has significant long-term data I guess not significant but for the last season and Mack has none he looks like a poor man’s Davis Thompson sure I
A middle class middle class a middle class Davis Thompson and he went to SMU Texas guy I know I think it’s like South Texas San Antonio or something like that but why not him he fills it up he can scramble short game’s good I’m sure he’s played this course many times I cannot
Guarantee that I cannot find anything while looking on Google but I know Roberto had to play him in junior golf and said he was legit so that means a lot to me but 5,500 for MC Meisner I I think there’s what’s the ownership you see on them 4 and a half%
[ __ ] a little bit more than I was thinking on it but that’s a Scotty Factor though right and like we’re not the only ones to figure out that this guy is from Texas and in good form making cuts and like again just like looking at the 5K range people that are
Making Cuts three in a row he’s probably one of the few that checks that box I would imagine right especially after chan oh no Chan made the cut last week he sucked but he made the cut so a couple a couple interesting points about Meisner here when I ran my model and
Numbers have moved when Meisner opened at 500 to one he was the best value I had on the board if I had an opportunity to redo this I wish I would have put him on my card uh the second best value that I had was Max graser at 250 and that’s
The route I ended up going there but I think Meisner has gone now from 500 to you can probably shop around and still find a 300 in the space a lot of places have him at like 250 275 he is legitimately one of the biggest movers and I think that’s credible movement for
All the reasons that you just mentioned there so I I like him quite a bit um you really don’t like Taylor Moore though I’m trying to figure out my lineup now that not not really to be honest I I don’t know I feel like I’ve gotten more correct more often than not
Like I had him during his victory um I I don’t know it’s it’s one of those weird spots where like if you’re directly comparing this upper $7,000 range my model likes Thomas dietre More which might just be another sickness that I have that I can’t seem to get off
Of um it likes Davis Thompson more at a at a price that’s cheaper it likes Taylor Montgomery more like there’s anytime that I start finding names that are beneath a golfer that my model prefers it kind of starts pushing me out of that direction of wanting to play that name so
And I just think there’s a lot of ownership too in comparison to some of these other names not that he’s going to be 20% owned but I think he’s going to be 10% plus and when you have that option and it’s going to probably drift even higher
Than I think it is there’s options that I can find that are sub five% that I’d rather just get unique that way all right let’s close it out one guy 10K and above who’s your guy I’ll say Scotty [ __ ] I I mean this is like hor I will go with the gala NK
And above fenal I’m gonna go I’m between Jason day and seuk Cam I really do like Jason day here I think the three players that we have named in the 9000s I think that’s the three that you should be looking at most frequently with it so give me Jason day okay I’ll do
It all right AK I’ll say joerger just because I think he has the most win Equity but this is a great bounceback spot for Ryan gim I’m gonna go with dou gim it’s a good pick 7K I I might have to go with Davis Thompson here which is probably gonna be
What your pick was gonna be no no you’re good I I think I’m gonna I’m gonna lean Taylor Moore in the market do scare me a little bit on him one question before we move to the next range because we haven’t talked about this player I would
Like to get your thoughts on him because my model really liked him this week do you have an opinion on Mark hubard safe let me see where he actually grades for me I mean very safe he’s 23rd in safety for me 1 for safety with
Me price like a guy you only need to be safe what’s the ownership I see eight there’s no way eight% Mark cover I’ll go with five I see six so I’m kind of in the middle of those two hubs what do you got for us in the market here dog to
Ryder who’s Ryder’s up there right upper sevens yeah Ryder Ryder my model or he’s 69 but my model also likes Ryder if we want to throw another name in there that is a pretty decent $6,000 option Joel Damon huh people like Joel Damon course history his iron forms okay dude I’m
Good on Joel Damon people could have that all right I promise to stop talking about Joel Damon after getting in trouble for mispronouncing his name about a hundred times yeah that was a good time though you really like Aaron Ry yeah oh dude this single entry now that I’ve shaken
It up do I have to pay for female probably right I mean probably I’ve done it every week I might as well keep going all right 6K range favorite guy I’ll take graser all right I will go with [ __ ] Grayson Sig I think he’ll make the
Cut I think that’s a good wager that you placed as a top 40 when I I think you said he was what 34th in your model yeah when I gave him just the generic finish and didn’t count the cut that he put in in 2021 he was 34th for me nice yeah which
Makes sense yeah I think that’s probably his Peak is probably 20th but 5K range I’m gonna go first because I’m taking MEC Meer should I play him in single entry like grer honestly Nick I think he’s very playable in single entry I think I think meisner’s a good option this week this
Is just a mispricing um anytime that a golfer can be the most mispriced player that I have on the outright board and you can find him in the $5,000 section that’s usually one of those situations where just sign me up and I’ll take my chances there right I mean do we like Kurt
Kittama uh I’ll just see what my lineup is right now I got off Jagger to go to seu which I can go back to jger but I have thues feno SEIU so like I want guys that could surround the top 10 if I’m playing no Scotty Kurt kyama Mac Meisner Max Gra
Man so I have 8,300 for that kittama spot I’m not playing Billy I feel like I much rather play a ball Striker like kyama who can make this course look very short yeah or I could play Doug gam which I do like Doug gim also went to Texas and lives grew up
Like 10 minutes north of where I live right now in Arlington Heights Illinois so shout out to that for whatever that means you could sell me on on kittama um I mean I think one of the things with kittama that’s at least worth throwing out there if we’re talking specifically
About win play I mean this is a UNLV golfer UNLV gets very windy I I think he’s going to be a natural fit and I and I also think like one of the players I was going to mention in the lower fives I think Harry Hall kind of has
Playability because of that reason also low ball hitter does not have it does not hit it high I think he’s a very intriguing play in that 5,000 section like for me the three would be Hall Meisner maybe Brandon woo if I want to add a fourth there like there were some
Upside portions of my model that liked woo worry a little bit about the safety with him and then I’ll let you talk me out of this one Jacob Bridgeman lost audio one second if you can hear me great I cannot hear you so continue if you want to close us out
Just we’ll get out of here I’ll take us out of here on that note Nick so uh you can find Nick on Twitter stip I am at tof sports if you have any questions about the week from any perspective please feel free to reach out to us at
One of those handles anything else you want to say Nick no no no I think I’m gonna go with kittama well I I think the upside like if you look at gim and you look at some of those other players kittama probably has the most win Equity we’ve actually
Seen him do it on the PGA tour so I’m not going to talk you out of that name I think gim and Ry make a lot of sense too but but uh yeah if you have not done so already you can use the code bgp to get
A $100 match bonus over on Underdog the site is buzzing with different sports that you can play weekly when diving into their season long best ball drafts or pick them contest remember Underdog has everything you need to gain action for the week for any sport that you want
Nick anything else you want to say before we get out of here no good luck and thanks to everybody for tuning in um we we uh what we got Valero next week I miss match play best tournament on the schedule that’s that was the most last year I I need it
I like the mixup too of like not having to do like all the the massive Board of DFS research like it’s just a good break right before gust and now we don’t have it tons of game theories that went into that tournament um I I think on the DFS
Side they were overplayed everybody knew to not that part was not as great but I think from a betting perspective there were so many ways to gain an edge like I rolled over Cameron young last year or he loses in the finals to Sam Burns and
I still managed to make five or six units at that tournament so there were a lot of different ways to play it I’m a really big fan when we get tournaments that are not quite the cookie cutter approach that you would expect every single week so very unfortunate to lose
That but yeah as Nick said we will be back for the Valero that is to me probably the one tournament or the first tournament that I really made a name for myself hitting Corey Connor at 250 to one so a soft spot in my heart for that
Event I’ll be excited to see if we can maybe find a similar player down the board although I will say Nick this might be Stephen joer week next week to win that event if he’s in the tournament that feels like the perfect course for him to finally win a tournament so I
Assume if it doesn’t work out this week for joerger I will be on joerger for the hundredth time next week but good luck to everybody out there we will see you guys back here again next Tuesday
