Bet Stephan Jager & Andrew Novak at the Houston Open? Golf Picks & PGA Tour Props | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Spencer Aguiar and Nick Bretwisch join Roberto Arguello to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

Subscribe to Links and Locks podcast here: www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/links-locks

00:00 – Houston Open Best Bets
06:42 – Course Preview
13:19 – Outright Bets
25:19 – One and Done
30:47 – Other Picks
35:09 – bet365 Promo
41:56 – Rapid Fire Picks

#pgatour #golfbetting #golf

Get our free mobile app: https://myaction.app/youtube
https://www.actionnetwork.com/
https://www.tiktok.com/@actionnetworkh nq
http://instagram.com/actionnetworkhq
Tweets by ActionNetworkHQ

Individuals must be 21+ to participate in sports betting and iGaming in the U.S. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER in the U.S. or visit: https://www.actionnetwork.com/general/responsible-gambling.

In Massachusetts, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.

#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo

Hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 alongside Spencer agar Nick brwi I’m Roberto arale thanks for joining our show today we are breaking down our Texas Children’s Houston open betting preview this week the PGA Tour

Previously in this week after the Florida swing swung to Texas Austin for the WGC Dell Technologies match play but that event is not on the calendar this year so instead they moved the Houston open from the fall swing up ahead to the spring so we’re going to have a new spot

On the schedule this week for the Texas Children’s Houston open next week is the Valero Texas open and then we have the Masters Tournament which will be the first major championship of the year as it always is so before we get to Valero and the Masters this week we are in

Houston for Memorial Park Golf Course fellas I’m out this week on my bet since I’m doing PGA Tour live you can catch me on stream three feature groups all week long and also the 17th hole but Spencer you and Nick have picks Nick shout out

To Peter MTI we got the homage with a bucket hat Spencer you are on the te first who you got with your best bet for the Houston open this week two things Roberto first of all the match play was the best betting Tournament of the entire year

Very sad to see that off the schedule and think we might be going to one of the worst betting tournaments of the entire year so nice excuse for why you can’t give picks where I think Nick and I are trying to find a player or two

That we can even mention on this show we can talk about why that is there’s a lot of reasons that come into play there I’m going to go and if I don’t give a matchup and I think that’s kind of the indicator of what I think about a

Tournament when I don’t give a matchup then everything has gone South for me with the numbers that I’ve run I’m going to give a long shot uh inside the top 20 Market where I’m just going to bet on the UPS side here there is a floor that

Is going to be very low but Nate Lashley plus 550 to come top 20 that is over at bet 365 I think lashley’s intriguing had some strong results at similar courses so excited to hear that cap in a moment Nick who you got for your best bet this

Week yeah like Spencer said if I could uh like apply to be security or like a volunteer field field Marshall just so I like I’m legally not allowed to bet I would definitely take the flight and the loss down to Florida and do so but uh if

That’s not the case I will take Grayson Sig top 40 where Tai’s paid in full at plus 140 okay Grayson Sig top 40 plus 140 with ties in full before we get into that cap Spencer why are you targeting the top 20 Market with Nate Lashley I

Think it just comes down to the Boomer bus potential like it’s something that I’ve talked about quite frequently on this show when I have the positive trajectory in my model for upside and all of a sudden you look at the safety markets and the players moving in the

Wrong direction I think those are the spots that you want to shoot it as far up the board as possible so Lashley doesn’t work like I I agree with Nick Sig play it’s a better top 40 play to Target Sig in that sort of area I think

Lashley is the exact opposite of a bet to where it’s either he puts the pieces together and he provides one of those top 15 like finishes that we’ve seen over the six events or it’s the four miscuts that have come into play with him so he was the biggest outlier in my

Model when trying to look for upside versus safety those numbers catapulted them up my board just because of the three top 12 results out of the six main categories that I ran statistically for this tournament I as I said it’s a boomer bus play to where Lashley has not

Only missed cut potential but also bottom of the board potential but I thought at plus 550 here it was a really enticing price to swing for the fence on a golfer that does have legitimate and I think for the price and we can talk about in the outright Market legitimate

Win Equity um for this tournament when you can get him in that like 250 to plus range so I thought this was just an additional way to get exposure to Lashley here plus 550 for a top 20 little fun fact about Nate Lashley in the first playing of this event at

Memorial Park golf course this is the fourth one upcoming this this week in the first one in 2020 he led the field in Strokes gained around the green gaining almost 1.7 Strokes around the green per round which is a ton uh so he probably missed some greens but we’ve

Seen him as he said those high-end finishes at Tory Pines another long golf course like this one uh with not a ton of scoring opportunities he popped on approach then with the putter as well really strong result with TBC sass being one of the elite approach players that

That week so exciting to see if he pops this week for you at that big number Nick why do you like Grayson Sig this week in Houston yeah overall he was uh 30 second in my model overall and then inside the top 30 in model safety so for

Me that’s usually going to price it I guess in in a more loaded field it’d be right around plus 125 but in this field watered down I would have that closer to even money so he’s one of the top scramblers uh inside the PGA Tour so far

This year in 2024 his ball striking has been in fantastic form especially with the iron play so again this is more just a price grab for me I think when he was here in 2022 and missed a cut by a couple Strokes his game was in very bad

Form I know he’s not scoring necessarily like crazy right now but I love what I’m seeing with the irons I love the water downfield and again I will take 30 to 40 points of value in the placement Market every single time even though it’s it has not been very fruitful so far this

Season um but yeah Grayson Sig like Spencer said I think it’s a guy we would bet for safety I don’t think the the upside is is very high if at all um but inside the top 40 in this field I do like Grayson s Here Yeah you mentioned

The safety he’s a guy who’s going to find a bunch of Fairways he’s gain Strokes on approach in six out of eight tournaments this season and the ones where he hasn’t gained he’s basically been neutral so seems like a pretty safe play and a guy that should be a solid

Bet at that number for a top 40 this week gentlemen we got our Best Bets out of the way we’ll jump into our course preview right now then we’ll go through our outright cards go through the rest of the card any other bets that you have we’ll talk about one and done where

Nobody really did anything last week in our group and then we’ll rapid fire through the rest of the golfers on the board at 50 to1 or shorter but without further Ado let’s get into our course preview for Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston Spencer I’ll let you take the

Floor so over the past few weeks we’ve had similar discussions about tournaments that are moving on the schedule from a different month from when they normally get played we got some of those answers at the Players Championship how that course shifted an expectation between the two starting

Times I I guess when you look here in Houston there are a few ways that you could highlight the board you’re going to get overseed dormant Bermuda that’s going to help the landing zones be a little bit softer I still think Strokes gained around the green are going to

Matter anytime you get a Tom dope course it’s a very unique contextual setup that you get there but I also think on on the flip side of that March more or less gives you that give or take because there’s extra win that’s in the forecast there so it makes it an awkward build

And and I don’t think that’s necessarily at least personally why I didn’t like this tournament there are some statistical I don’t want to say anomalies necessarily but just just situations here that we don’t necessarily have the answers to with how this tournament is going to play in

March but I think when you look at Memorial Park it’s a long course at 7,400 yards it’s widely regarded as one of the top municipal golf courses in the world there was a 2019 renovation of the track Tom do remodeled the layout got it back up and running for the nearly

60,000 patrons who visit the grounds each year uh that’s quite the impressive feat so you know I I think when you look here he was accompanied on the project by Brooks kka that rebuild aimed to create a challenging tournament venue that could provide dramatic lead changes down the stretch my opinion I thought

They did that brilliantly you get six holes yielding somewhere between a 21% or higher bogey or Worse rate or 26% bird or better percentage on the back nine alone that’s going to cause some massive deviations down the stretch for those who like to live bet a tournament

Although it goes back to my initial point for this and and I think even with the softer Landing conditions anytime you think of a dop property it’s always this distinctive green complexes that comes into play so I think it’s going to remain front and center there’s been

Over a 5% increase in dispersion of scoring here in Strokes game around the green versus a typical track do think maybe it drops a little bit maybe more into that 3% range which is still a very large increase in Strokes gain around the green if that’s what we get for this

Tournament you’re going to have large specimen oak trees that’s going to cause some trouble off the teas if you’re Wayward you have these really unique Landing areas and just these diverse sort of holes like there’s a clamshell hole out on the course to where like you

Don’t see these things all the time um reduction in G percentage think you need to H Fairways just because of the narrower than average uh returns there at the end of the day though this is a diabolical course that might be a little bit more simplistic than we’ve gotten in

Years past I think that if we look at this being you know 10 under at its easiest it’s probably more I mean fenal W it at 16 Ortiz W it at 13 you’re probably somewhere in that 13 to 16 range but I I don’t necessarily foresee

This getting into like the 20 under par or better sort of digits but but I mean the thing about the PGA Tour this year and we’ve noted it quite frequently they do seem to be making pin locations easier scoring’s been uh a lot more simplistic in a lot of these spots I

Have heard that the rough has been shaved off in a lot of areas and it’s not going to be as thick so it’s kind of a complicated course because we’ve gotten one thing in the past and now you get a tournament change to a different month and you probably get ease based

Off of that answer and then what they’re also doing with the course yeah I think you hit the nail in the head by giving the overall course layout I’ll emphasize that Brooks kepka was the PGA Tour player who gave input on the redesign here and he wanted a

Course that could deliver a challenge like a major championship while also being amenable for your everyday golfer as they get 60,000 rounds on this golf course every year so they widen the fairways in 2019 so they have relatively wide Fairways you mentioned the rough being shaved in November previously they

Had 2 and 1/2 in Bermuda grass rough now it’s 1 and a/4 inch Ry grass so a little bit different uh texture not going to be as tough out of the Ry grass as it is unpredictable out of Bermuda you’ll also have as you mentioned the undulating

Greens it’ll be interesting to see the pin placements because they have the big greens where normally for everyday play they put the pins in less challenging locations but they do have some options given the greens to make it a lot tougher so that’ll be fun uh if the

Winds are down could see some pretty diab diabolical pins potentially and Spencer from uh distribution of approach shots what did you make of this week I know in past weeks in Florida we had a few weeks where over 150 yards for example was emphasized anything on that

Front that you weighed or just more of a holistic approach uh this week in your model I mean I just weighed it across the board of what it is like you’re one range where you’re you’re going to get the massive increase is going to be from

200 plus there’s about a 3% increase in expected shots from that distance uh not anything though inside of my model that was vastly different like I just kept it with the simplistic output of what we’ve gotten in expected returns over the first three years and I recalculated the

Weights based off of that but uh most of the holes get a very slight decrease and then you get the increase at the very back end there from a longer distance that makes ton of sense also wanted to add that there are five par 3s

Three par fivs and it is a par 70 this week so with all that in mind Nick want to give you a chance anything else you’d like to mention about the course before we hop into our outright card no um I’m interested to see how it

Plays like Spencer said you hear a lot of rumors every Source you go to but yeah has statistically it’s been a hard course to hit Fairways a harder course to hit greens and regulations so the scrambling is something that I value still but like Spencer said the the

Unknown will be pretty interesting so EX to see that and Roberto have you played here before I have not no okay yeah all right let’s get out there one of these days it looks absolutely beautiful so I’m excited to see it again on TV fellas let’s jump into our outright

Cards Nick I’ll swing it back to you do you have anybody on the card this week or should we swing it over to Spencer I’m in between three guys as of now I have one unit at risk those are both on placement Wagers it’s like I don’t even want to

Entertain this without Scotty sheffler Market I’m not going to bite for that so the the three that I have right now that I’m interested in I don’t really have value on the number on siah Gala but I really do like this setup for him especially if that rough being Ry is

Going to be a lot easier to hit out of I love his scrambling the putter can get hot can certainly make this a very very short course with the bomb and gouge type of style that we see from theala then it was Jason day I don’t

Want to get Spencer too excited but I just I don’t know 25 to one for how well he’s playing especially with the off to te game I’m I’m kind of into that and then a long shot I like Joseph bramlet but I have not punched a ticket anywhere because I’m I’m worried about

Scotty as the rest of the field is looking at Joseph bramlet on our sponsor bet 365 he’s available out there at 12 to1 Nick is wearing the bucket hat in omage to Peter malady who cast it 350 to one uh making everybody like us who bets on this weekly look like fools last

Week CU I don’t think I’ve heard anybody give out a pure Mady pick in years especially when we have Cameron young right behind him my God what kind of what kind of year of second places has it been unbelievable I uh I did put one measley dollar on Chandler Phillips at 350 to1

As well uh that was a fun $1 bet for around 70 holes dude that was honestly I was I was listening back to the show I was like that was really the only like piece of advice that came to fruition was Chandler Phillips name being

Mentioned what do you have Top 40 on him top 40 at plus 300 I actually found it at plus 325 but we gave it out great ticket nice job I liked I like our out for me I liked our strategy with the Best Bets last week I think we all took

Similar routes mine was just the one that hit but you got to trust the process and if you do it enough it works out so speaking of that Spencer I know you do have an outright card who have on it and why are we backing these guys

Well my best bet last week played like 18 holes and then he pulled out of the tournament so I didn’t you got 70 holes out of this where you got excitement my guy was just out of the tournament like within half of the before even Friday

Took place but I think when you look at this board and it’s kind of what Nick was talking about and it stretches even a little bit further than that here’s the problem when you have markets with sheffler as a betable commodity and he’s 3 to one it’s not even the problem and and

There there is Win Equity at least perceived wi Equity that gets removed from the equation when Sheffer is in the field and I think at the 3 to1 price that any ticket that you punch at least runs the risk that things can go south and Sheffer wins this and I don’t

Necessarily mind it’s hard to win a golf tournament I don’t mind attacking against Scotty sheffler if books would have given us an ability to do so the problem is they put she at 3 to one and then you have that range and I agree I think if there was like a second name

For me it’s probably theala I think fenal makes some sense but like Windam Clark theala zalatoris fenal you have all these guys that got priced as if Scotty sheffler’s not even in the field at 3 to one there’s such a massive hold percentage across the board that any

Market that has sheffler in it I worry about sheffler and you’re not getting the enhanced price that you need in that spot and then I’ve seen it a very popular narrative in the space that find the markets without Scotty Sheffer and bet it that way the books have gone so

Rog in the pricing there that like these returns that we’re looking at on a player like Windam Clark and some of these names it’s like there’s no value to be found in those spots so my model really conducted this idea that the only way you were going to find Value on this

Board is if you went down to the very bottom and took long shots and maybe part of that for me ends up being to where I I’m okay taking these few long shots and if Scotty wins that’s fine and you know even if a name like the Galla

Wins I will stomach it and be okay just because I don’t think that there’s value on the number where it is I wish he was 30 to one we could have a different conversation based off of that answer but um if nothing else and I think

People that listen to this show all the time will know this I am very resilient I am taking Stephen joerger once again I grabbed him at 50 to one my model just continues to love his ball striking Acumen when you get some of these courses that heighten his putting return

Given that answers quite a few times on this show and you know joerger seems to regress to a putter that loses five Strokes in those situations when I do grab him so there’s always the risk that the putting goes south but 71st in my model and expected putting on any course

In the world that he plays he’s 37th here on corollary green types I’ve just always been higher than the market on Jagger I thought this was probably the one you know if you want to call him high-end sort of name in this field at least in this like sub 50 to one range

That actually saw a height in price because of this lack of public Intrigue that is put around him I grabbed Doug gim at 80 to1 nice bounce back spot for gim in my opinion I don’t know what the upside actually is he was 67th last week

At the Valspar people were on him in that event now they quickly seem to be moving in the other direction in some ways there’s still some sharp money that I think have hit this but he had generated five top 16 finishes before last week’s slip up I just thought that

When he opened at 80 to1 there was too much value in that number there grabbed Andrew Novak at 175 to1 and this is really for me where I just started peppering these long shots over and over again of players that I thought we didn’t get the correction for so with

Novak three top 10 finishes four top 17 results over the past five weeks books are typically extremely quick to shrink these totals when anyone shows any form of life but I think we didn’t get that here just with how aggressive the market is on the favorites so I thought Novak

Slipped further down the board than he should have fifth in my model for expect Ed T to Green performance he also saw similar Jagger like projections with the putter where he jumped from 116th over his past 24 rounds to 53rd on corollary overseed Berita tracks I’ve always been

A Believer it’s something I’ve talked about quite a bit on these shows if you give me a ball striking golfer and they all of a sudden are able to add those quality putting returns that’s when they win the golf tournament that’s when we get these outlier wins that come into

Play at these 175 or Plus numbers I took Max graser to 50 to1 I don’t know how much we should trust his par five scoring uh my model had him six in the sheet for par five birdie or better percentage when I did allow those numbers to show without regression but a

Safe player for me in my model I don’t really ever anticipate names like this that are 250 to one to crack the top 25 for me so the fact that graser did both from an overall Rank and an upside perspective thought it was just too deep

Of a price there at 250 to one think the Boomer bust candidate of the week is Nate Lashley at 250 to1 I talked about him of why I liked him it’ be all the same reasons there I think it’s a high ceiling for a player who has extremely

Low floor and then I don’t know maybe this is one of those situations where I just go back to the well and I mean this was this was a Nick and I failure last week and I don’t even know if he necessarily played that poorly if you take away the Thursday

Round but Jacob Bridgeman 300 to1 found the water on the seventh hole on Thursday um it was rather steady other other than that if you take away that hole in the par five that completely took him out of the event but I never necessarily want to look into one round

Too much he was fine on Friday didn’t necessarily break my model in a way where you know he was slightly negative off the Tian approach but I also think that’s a tough spot for a gol for that you probably have taken yourself out of

An ability to make a cut so it’s kind of difficult to go back out there on Friday I don’t know what the upside is here either but I think at 300 to1 there are some off the tea problems that I could certainly note within my model for why

This will not find success but at 300 to1 you’re always going to have those red flag moments and situations that come into play so uh for me I mean outside of joerger and I wasn’t even planning to go that joerger route until he drifted to 50 it is pretty much

Triple digit bets over and over again and I just found the top of the board even if we remove Scotty like even if Scotty’s not the one that ends up crushing and and winning this tournament I just think that there’s too low of prices on the fenals Clarks the gas

Zalatoris is I think you’re kind of just throwing a dart at a board and I don’t want to be throwing darts at boards when golfers are between 12 and 22 to1 the exposure adds up too quickly I’m not in the game to say that I’ve hit 16

Outright winners in 2024 I want to turn a profit and uh I mean that’s probably one of your winners if we’re being honest here but it’s just too much exposure for me to really get up to the board there yeah I wholeheartedly agree I think I was surprised on Monday morning

Running R ODS post to see so many guys at 25 to1 or shorter in addition to Scotty sheffler um but I agree I think that zah deala and Windham Clark right behind Sheffer makes the most sense if you had to take uh Windham Clark theala and Sheffer versus the

Field would you guys take that Nick what would the price be even money ah you know it’s so Golf and no and just no not doing it I I would also take the field in that spot I think there’s just enough volatility at the

End of the day but um th those are the favorites for a reason and I’m not necessarily trying to like disuade people off of them other than any reason than this being just a a reverse number grab situation to where I I just don’t have value on the price of what they’ve

Released it like we see this quite frequently from Sports books when there are inconsistencies in the answer so there’s a there’s a move change from November to March there’s this Scotty sheffler dilemma of what is going to happen with him books take a very cautious approach in those

Positions because they don’t also want to end up with Too much exposure on a tournament that I think they have question marks for and any times that any time that a book ends up taking that position my model really has a hard time finding value because they’re kind of of

Masking and shading all the exposure away from any of the spots that you would want to be that makes a ton of sense Spencer I like the stevenh Jer play I thought he was one of the few players who I thought could have been in that 30 35 range yeah

Very very fair price absolutely inod play for me by the way nice and I think I’m gonna I’m gonna follow on grman I’ve been a big fan of him like him and Bridgeman I look at him every single week so I think 250 to one for the the

Upside is has there been anything said about Scotty’s neck rehabbing anything like that I know Sunday he looked fine I’m assuming all is well um is there any concerns there I haven’t really looked into him obviously because the contrarian side of me just has no interest in paying the inflated price obviously

And then DFS side of things he’s like 13k I think we hit a record I have not heard anything but I’ll do a quick Google sear see if we find anything yeah I’m assuming no news is good news but I don’t know fig they would talk about it I would think that

Today would be when we might hear something Tuesday afternoon when we’re recording this of Houston open week so keep an eye on that uh as this progresses when you listen to this Wednesday morning most likely uh there might be somewhere new so just do a quick search on Scotty Sheffer maybe

Something’s come up um gentlemen we have touched on our outright cards Best Bets wanted to talk about one and done before we get into the rest of the card I’ll start it off uh Steven joerger was somebody I considered right now I have Luke list as my guy I thought that there

Was a lot of commonalities between discourse Mexico open uh Tory Pines uh I don’t think the putting surfaces are as similar and the short game but Augusta National I think because of some wide fails some uh longer approaches I think that could those could all be some similar comp

Courses and players who’ve done well at those Stephen joerger Jake knp um Luke list in the past winner at Tory Pines as well I think those guys all make sense those are kind of my three guys that I’m looking at this week I don’t want to go

With a big dog because there’s just not that much money in the pool this week so I’m really between those three guys but right now I have luk list because I like the putter although Jake knap is intriguing but I know Nick you mentioned you’re intrigued by Jake knap to I want

To be different than you though yeah yeah that’s fair I think as of now my three options are Jason day Jake knap or theala I think the galwa is going to be so damn popular though I guess in our small League that’s fine but in large contests I may go a different direction

But right now I think again I said Cameron young last week which worked out fantastic but I guess I did not change him in our own contest so you’re welcome there but yeah it’s because of it’s because of me the head faking yeah well

I I talk to you out of him and I and I do this every single week and and when push leave me alone well I’m trying to here’s the problem and I think this is like a mistake that people make in oneandone contests in general and we

Have a smaller group of of players in this but I think there’s even some sentiment that comes into play people worry about not coming in last place at the end of the day with it and like really if you’re not winning I don’t care what my result ends up being and I

I think there’s aggression that has to take place and my biggest concern and I’ve already put myself in a hole I used Scotty at the very first tournament of the Year I wish I could have had him at the API I had Windam Clark as my alternate essentially in this contest I

Used him as my pick in a different one and done when he won at Pebble Beach kind of just made the wrong decision every single time that I push has come to shove for me in these spots but I don’t know like I was so afraid because

Nick has pulled this card on me countless times this year where he tells me he’s not going to play a golfer and I being as far back as I am I can’t play Cameron young and I’m already millions of dollars down and share you know what is essentially a million

Dollars they’re like I feel like when I’m this far down any pick that I make I have to hit solo because there’s a lot of room that needs to get made up here it’s hard enough to hit one golf tournament I don’t want to share it with

Two three four other people when it happens so I really what I did is I ruined Nick so I mean if Nick if you want to put that on the tab of I’m sure everything that I owe you at this point ruined you in this contest and in the

Process by thinking that you were still going to take Cameron young after saying I was gonna take Cameron young went with Aaron rice so I got zero dollars there in the other contest that I’m in I took Cameron young it’s just everything that I can do wrong in this group I have um

I’m probably gonna take Stephen joerger right now I’m assuming I still have him left although for me I probably have used them somewhere but um I I I don’t know I’m gonna B Nick I know Nick used jger at the um Mexico open Mexico yep

Yep he’s gone for me so that is not an option so we both have him um I’m intrigued by the Yeah I was just gonna say if you’re a front runner in this sort of a situation I I I think the gala does make a lot of sense like that’s

Something that you should be aware of he’s going to be popular but Game Theory also changes on what the correct answer is based off of where you are in the standings I don’t think the gala does me a ton of good like even if you two don’t

Take him I assume out of the 12 other people he’s going to be pick three or four times so um I’m sure zalatoris can enter that mix too for other names that are going to get thrown out there but I’m gonna have to just kind of Zig when

Other people zag and I’m either going to make up the ground by doing that or I’m probably gonna come in last but right now it’s the trajectory I’m on is make every wrong decision and come and last if you’re not somebody who has live golf offers available in your major

Championships I think the gal is a sneaky play for the Masters you could be a little contrarian there I have I’m not the first person to compare the senty to the Masters in that similar players have popped up both which is why I use dalala

At the Sentry so he’s got like half of my money earned so far this season off of that TI for second and one and done so I don’t have him available but I think there are spots where you could use him later in the year depending on

Your strategy and where you are in your pool uh to to strongly consider uh because I I’m very bullish on theala overall this season um gentlemen I know we’ve gone through our Best Bets outrights course preview now one and done Spencer I know you have some other

Bets on the card Nick you do to Spencer I’ll let you go first who else do you have on the card besides your outrights and your Nate Lashley top 20 bet it’s just a low exposure tournament for me like like all these bets lashly 0.3

Units to win 1.65 took Max graser at 5 to one for a top 20 0.2 units to win one and then the only other play that I have and I don’t necessarily love it as much as I did earlier in the day just because I I do think we get easier scoring here

I think that there’s an ability for players to potentially use their driver and distance off the te it’s kind of the answer that you gave for luk list like my model was a little bit lower on lcas it’s kind of an every week answer but I

Do think he can find success here and Cameron Champ I bet him to miss the cut at plus 110 I worry a little bit that the course conditions might be soft enough that his par five scoring in distance ends up getting him into the weekend um but I mean if this plays like

It has and I don’t even want to say near pass because I don’t think it’s gonna quite but if that around the green test from do still stands I don’t trust Cameron Champ in a situation with his iron proximity or with the around the green game so I

Still think there’s a little bit of value at plus 110 if this was a tournament played in November in years past probably would have bet this for a full unit I only put a half unit on it for that reason and I think there’s even an argument to be made that that could

Have been slightly aggressive at the end of the day with some of these new numbers that I’ve added and the way that champ has climbed for me but still a projected miscut candidate and if I can get him at plus 110 it was a number

Grabed there but uh like in total for me my card is at less than two units through everything that I’ve talked about so uh we’ll see if there’s anything in tournament wise that I can find Value on but not a ton that I saw pre-event for a lot of those reasons

That I keep harping on over and over again cam champ a couple notes on him played this event just one time and the last time it was played in 2022 November missed the cut uh lost 3.31 Strokes around the Green in that tournament which I’m going to guess had to be the

Worst in the field let’s take a quick peek um so among players who mid who missed the cut that was by far well that was second worst Garrick higo was the worst but nobody else was even in within a mile of them so that around

The green uh cap I think is dead on also he’s played in Eight events this year nine of or seven of which have data Miss Cuts in six of eight has lost Strokes on approach every single tournament so far this season and the only two tournaments

Where he made the cut at the Mexico open and last week at the V barar aided by a putter that gained over a stroke per round on the greens so really it’s is he going to flash with the Putter and can he take advantage of the driver and

Otherwise he’s still rough on approach and when he misses on approach he’s gonna have to deal with his poor short game so I like that one unfortunately I can’t tail any bets this week um Nick what else do you have in the placement Market sector surprisingly I found value

In theala at 225 I had this proper right around plus 190 195 obviously has back toback top 10s four top 10 already on the year and all four of those were in absolutely loaded Fields um so again with the uh the changes in the rough uh I think this just missing the freway

Would be a lot less penal than it has been in years past so that’s obviously like our only concern with the H because otherwise great Scrambler uh Putter’s been relatively good so far this year and the berm putting has not been terrible in comparison to the Baseline

So I will go with thala plus 225 for a top 10 all right I like that play I think that makes a ton of sense uh was that ties and full or just top 10 uh normal just top 10 yeah ties and full I think I

Can get down to plus 140 but I’m not taking I am seeing 80 points off the off the ticket there I guess maybe 180 out there potentially on 365 do they they do other option yeah in full at bet 365 our sponsor and that is the perfect time to

Give a reminder that this podcast is presented by North Carolina’s newest Sportsbook bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more

Bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa

Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply quick aside I know we had the jonte porter uh Revelations yesterday in the NBA if there was ever a sport where we could

Pay off a guy it would be golf because it’s an individual game you know they’re going to get to play uh there’s no playing time of course if anybody does it uh where you bet your unders or engulf it would be I guess the over on your total score the handle would give

It away immediately uh so you’d have to be pretty slick with it but that just got me got me thinking uh for another day perhaps well apparently money does talk in golf with everybody who’s leaving towards Liz so I I don’t know Roberto if this is the route that we

Want to go down with this show here but uh uh yeah I want to say we should look into Justin low maybe one of his siblings or best friends as a bookmaker that happen to take Spencer and I action on his placement market and uh you know

He didn’t have flu like symptoms like Porter but uh he just leaves the tournament after snapping club and uh tells us to pound sand so thanks for that Justin all right we bounce back uh gentlemen we have um the rapid fire segment unless you guys have any other

Bets that you’d like to work through here um that you’re considering no probably not I I think I think your answer for Luke list and just my models overall inability to cap him correctly I guess like list has definitely been a weak spot for me I considered fading him in a matchup I’ve

Decided not to to go down that route I think you brought up a lot of good points and um this is probably in theory a pretty good course fit for his length I do think the around the green game for him gives a lot of reason for pause and

One thing that atori Pines gives him is just less Short Grass and so there’s more short grass here to deal with especially uh with more of the PO available that’s the one hang up for me on him but he is a 90 to1 golfer for a

Reason so um I think he has upside but at the same time the floor is not very high so we’ll see what happens there but the putter isn’t a complete liability so I do think that’s why I think there’s some upside and I might be running

Things from a little bit too long of a perspective to begin with with list that’s not allowing like I I know the putter has still been Boomer bus recently but at least he’s had ability to spike and and I guess for me like when I was looking specifically for a

Matchup that I never got to it was like Taylor Montgomery over a luk list and I don’t know if I can sit there for two days or four days or whatever it becomes and watch Taylor Montgomery hit approach shots like it might drive me nuts specifically too specifically too

If I don’t think the around the green impact is quite as impactful because then all of a sudden Taylor Montgomery loses some of his short game upside and if list is hitting a higher percentage of Greens in regulation just because now we have a softer course in general and

He doesn’t have to worry about the around the green game as much there are ways that that bet went sou so I just decided to stay off of it I I didn’t necessarily want to get trapped specifically like the last thing you ever want to do in sports betting is

Chase after like last week was a unmitigated disaster for the most part with my card like nothing went right and even if you look on Sunday to where I had multiple plays and I wrote about it in an article I was like well I like Chandler Phillips against champ and I

Like Carl yuan in his matchup against Lee Hodges but there’s too much there’s too much wind in the forecast for me to necessarily feel comfortable for a tournament where I’ve already lost five units like let’s just call it and I don’t want this to be the week where we

Chase back on it so it’s been a good season so far on the matchups it’s been a good season pretty much all the way around other than the placement Market that’s the only thing that’s in the red for me so far this year but uh I just

Don’t think this is the tournament to chase like there’s going to be events that are better than others and the tournament that don’t have necessarily that positive return inside of my model I don’t think we need to go broke betting those events yeah always bet on your Edge not

Based on your recent results trying to get back to even or get back to a certain Profit just discipline is a big part of the game and that’s where I think a lot of sports books end up getting people because of chasing so always bet responsibly um and we’re

Going to try to do our best to give you an edge whenever we can find it of course one really quick note before we move on and we’ll move on past this I I really believe that the reason why Sports books make money beyond the the

Little Edge that they have to begin with but like where they actually make as much money as they do is the lack of bankroll management that people bring to the table uh parlays don’t help the average better I I think if like your random person that makes a straight bet

And even if you need to hit it like 52 and a half plus perc of the time to turn a profit on it most people most people out there are not going to be on the high end or the massive low end of that equation most people land somewhere in

That like 46 to 52% range and it doesn’t necessarily put a massive Dent the big problem comes into play is when people start chasing with money that they don’t have and then all of a sudden the bank roll dwindles away in a fashion to where if you just stayed the course and ended

Up finding your edges you would be able to get back into the game but I think that’s really where the sports books make most of their money is just people chasing totally agreed and one thing I like about our podcast we don’t give a

Lot of Bets with juice not a lot of one minus 120us 150s on our bets I know this week you could go that route but you guys have been disciplined going for the top 20 top 40s at plus crooked numbers so uh hopefully they pay off but if not

It’s not a big loss and we can move on to next week’s board where hopefully we get a little bit less hold percentage uh and more opportunities in San Antonio but fellas let’s move into the rapid fire quickly we have uh we mentioned a few of the players at the top of the

Board so I’ll keep moving along uh Windam Clark is 13 to one would you rather have a ticket on him to win the tournament we discussed um we discussed sah so I’ll move past him would you rather have a Windham Clark 13 to1 ticket a Willie Z 22 to1 ticket or a

Jason day at 24 to1 Spencer I’ll start with you based off of where the price would be for those answers I don’t want to pay that number for Windam Clark so I would remove him I do think he’s the most likely person to win so we could argue about what the

Correct number actually is on him I would say that that’s not the right number though I think it’s very close between day and zotus was the other one correct yes it almost feels I mean this this is I’m going to say zator for one reason I can’t have the public breakup with Jason

Day for Windam Clark and then you put them in a category with each other and I take Jason day over Windam Clark I think it’s very close I’ll say zalot Tores is ball striking and this is under the mindset that this maybe plays a little bit closer to 12 underpar than it would

16 underpar I think if we get up to 16 under zalot toes loses some of his win Equity there but I’ll say zalatoris for the sake of the show I also wanted to point out that Jason day who has historically been your favorite golfer now winam Clark because of recent top of

The leader board finishes Windam Clark’s data golf profile where you look at The Strokes gained um for The Strokes gain spider chart with driving distance driving accuracy approach play around the green play putting looks almost identical to Peak Jason Day in 2015 where they’re on the inside of the spiderweb on the

Driving accuracy and at almost the corners of the spiderweb on everything else uh guys who have the putting in the short game to capitalize on their increased approach play and that’s been a recipe for Success so I think it’s pretty interesting that your two favorite players stally are pretty

Similar uh nobody can say that I don’t have a type then I guess Nick among those three Windham Clark Willie Z and Jason day which one would you most rather have the ticket on at wam Clark honorable mentioned Jason day I think I’m out on willby yeah let’s move along to last

Season’s Champion here Tony fow is 27 to1 SE Wu Kim is 32 to1 Alex noren a name I didn’t think I would see under 50 to1 this week he’s 37 to1 and Keith Mitchell is also 37 to1 had a pretty nice 54 holes last week before struggling on the final round among big

Tone sewo Alex noren and killer Keith Spencer which one would you most rather have a ticket on so so for me like even if you took the players in the first question and you added these golfers this is more of where I would ideally

Like to be to begin with I think fow was intriguing I thought SEI Wu had some intrig I didn’t love the number on SEIU I wish he would have been 50 to one also kind of like the Alex norin discussion but I’ll go with Tony fow here uh

There’s a reason why he’s found success in won this tournament then at some point the putter just has to turn around and I think the ball striking while it’s for the most part I mean you could make an argument I guess that the valpar was just a weird tournament for everybody at

The end of the day there but I still think fow’s in good form with the ball striking returns Nick can I continue to say Tony F now yeah I mean at some point I think you and I have to be cut off I just I

Believe give me Tony feno I think it’s a nice I think this is a nice spot for him this is an intriguing number where there is an argument to be made that he potentially was one of the names that drifted also if you would have looked at

This I mean take this a year ago like even before after he won the tournament he’s uh I mean I’d be curious to see what his number was when he won here but like I feel like in this field he’s an 186 to1 golfer if we had the

Version of him that we had like a season ago so I think in in theory you’re getting a number that’s a little little heightened here on fow just because of the lack of putting returns I agree if I had to pick one of those guys I would also go fow fellas

We’ll wrap it up here we’ve already mentioned jger at 50 to1 so we’ll pass him Tom Hog’s 55 to1 McKenzie Hughes is 55 to1 so is Bo hosler kurk kyama and Jake knap is 60 to1 among those guys Spencer which one would you most rather have a ticket

On I like Hog’s proximity numbers always um it’s probably him or Jake nap at the end of the day I I think there’s a lot to like about nap I I worry a little bit about certain factors of what we’ve gotten recently I know that if you look

I mean one of the results he made a 12 because he found the water a million times so I don’t want to look too much into that but um I’ll go a little bit against my model I guess I’ll say Tom hogi over Jake knp Nick I’m gonna go Kurt cama

I like kyama he’s he could be a sneaky play this week approach play has been really solid this year around the kind of Boomer bust but we know it can do it at these difficult tracks and API has a lot more water than this golf course but

I think there are some similar traits that provide success at both these golf courses being long kind of ball Striker uh tracks no doubt all right gentlemen thanks for joining me on the show today excited for this week uh once again you can catch me on PGA Tour live I’m

Excited to be with graham DEET this week on stream three that’s our featured groups so among guys in those featur groups Jake knap Tom hogi McKenzie Hughes uh plenty of other guys so very excited hope you tune in on ESPN plus gentlemen where can we find your work

Until we meet again next week for the Valero Texas open betting preview I’ll start with you Nick better golf pod on Twitter and STI piix stiix pic Cs on Twitter and probably do another DFS right up at stochastic awesome looking forward to checking that out fortunately I can’t do

DFS this week either but that’s been a lot of fun uh listening to you guys and getting more experience in that uh Field Spencer where can we find your work this week you can find me on Twitter at tof sports I will have my Wednesday article

Here for Action Network I will have two in tournament bets on Saturday for sure and on one of Thursday or Friday and you can get my model over at Roto baller if you like any of the stats that you heard here today awesome so once again you can find

Nick on Twitter sticks pick that sticks with an X you can find Spencer on Twitter tof Sports and you can find me on Twitter Roberto a213 thanks again for tuning in to this week’s Texas Children’s Houston open bed and preview and we hope you hit the green this week in the Lone Star

State