On this episode I quickly recap the Valspar Championship before diving into my favorite Draftkings plays and bets for the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open. I also go in depth on the pros and cons of playing Scottie Scheffler.
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Ladies and gentlemen boys and girls children of all ages this is at the helm Sports I’m your host Derek Helm thank you for joining me for episode 121 please be sure to follow And subscribe on Apple podcast and Spotify leave those five star reviews if you are watching on
YouTube make sure you like And subscribe to the channel down in the comments section let me know are you enjoying this golf season because it seems like there are a lot of people complaining online now maybe that’s just the DFS and gambling bubble but I I’m interested to
Know I mean not a lot of people are are commenting on on the videos compared to how many are watching but if you are watching this just down in the comments tell me are you enjoying the golf season so far or has it just been an absolute
Disaster it kind of seems like people are on either one of those two sides so just a little bit curious so this week we will be diving in into the Texas Children’s Houston open a little bit of a mouthful there but first we’re going to dive into the Valar honestly I kind
Of enjoyed it I I I liked seeing a difficult test you know the course played difficult people were complaining that that we’ve seen too many easy tournaments and even ones that should be difficult weren’t playing as difficult so I I did like the course I I liked how
It played I lik the tournament overall now obviously the leaderboard left a little bit to be desired that’ll happen when Sam Burns and Justin Thomas are absolutely terrible at the tournament but Sunday was interesting you know obviously didn’t really work out very well if you were one of the Keith
Mitchell or Cam young backers I’ll get to what they did to me but Xander you know he he basically Xander he wasn’t really doing much and theno warmed up on Sunday and ended up with a great finish actually I was fine with it because it
Helped me in a gpp and actually he ended up cashing his top 10 bet so I was fine with it but it’s just funny how it’s he can’t play like that if he’s in contention but when it doesn’t matter at all the guy can absolutely go nuts and
It it was nice to see and actually we’ll get to it now I because of that was actually way up there in a gpp I really didn’t think I had any shot I had two six to6 lineups and one was I think I was well outside of the the top 100 all
Of a sudden at like 10:00 a.m. I looked and I was in 36th place and he was only a couple holes into his round and I was like okay we got a chance here so obviously he storm back it got me all the way up to 10th place and Keith
Mitchell was about to tee off and we all know how that went so went from 10th place and then ended up I think in 51st so thanks Keith Mitchell appreciate it and I know a lot of people bet him as well so he’s been having trouble here on
On the weekends you know been playing good golf but just can’t seem to get it done there there’s just something on the weekend that gets in his way every time so it’s going to be interesting to see what people do with him this week and
Then of course cam young you know a lot of people backed him and and it didn’t really work out too well pretty much worked out the same that it has another second place finish it was a rough rough finish for him I actually did make
A a outright bet on him prior to Keith Mitchell teeing off because I was just looking at the leaders and I was like ah none of these guys really scare scare me but I could see cam young M making a a run so as a little hedge basically just
Put a little bit on cam young just to kind of break even for the week and obviously that didn’t work out well so I got the double whammy I got to see Keith Mitchell absolutely destroy my DFS hopes and cam young destroy any chance of me getting my money back overall from a
Betting standpoint it was an okay week but really need to get back on the horse here and get some winners and and hopefully we can do that this week now this field is pretty weak but we we can move on to as I said at the top though I before
We move on just it seems like people are very very upset with with this current state of the PGA and I get it and and especially from a DFS and and betting standpoint I mean I’m I’m not having a good time as I just said you know it’s
Every time you get up there it’s just someone out of nowhere just comes in and rips it away from you this week it was malau and it it sucks from a DFS and betting standpoint but if you were just a casual fan I don’t think it really matters as
Much because honestly I’ve lost plenty of DFS contests I’ve lost plenty of bets so it pissed me off for a little bit but then I just got over it and honestly the tournament was enjoyable and and you got to be happy for melanina you know the
Speech he gave after it’s awesome to see a guy like that win and there have been good stories this year so I do think from a golf standpoint it’s not a complete disaster are there things that can improve absolutely has the PGA handled basically everything since live became a thing in
An absolutely terrible manner sure they have but I don’t think that we’re in as Dire Straits as a lot of people are making it out to be now granted just the internet age that we live in and and just people making content you either
Have to be on one side or the other so I get that but I I don’t think it’s as terrible as people are making it out to be and then obviously you know we’re we’re still not even at a March yet so we have the majors right around the the
Corner the Masters is coming so it could change everything right there so I’m not too worried about it but if we move to this week Texas Children’s Houston open going to be an interesting one the field is kind of weak obviously we have Scotty lurking over everybody there’s a
A couple guys I really like at the top so we we’ll get into the field but it is played at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston and Tom do renovated it in 2019 had the help of Brooks Kea definitely looks like a course that keco would like
To play kind of majores if you will very long difficult so it it’s going to be interesting to see what what these guys do here now do was a protege intern of Pete Dy so it’s going to be interesting to see you know this this course could
Maybe play well for some of the guys that play on Pete Dy designs it’s been played here from 2020 to 2022 so only three years so far not a large sample size but it’s probably good for some guys that have seen the course to to have that under their belts but I
I wouldn’t say it’s the end all Beall with how small of a sample size now Memorial Park is a 7,435 yard par 70 so 7,400 35 yards pretty long course and then when you make it a par 70 makes it long now it’s listed as Bermuda greens obviously we
Have the overseed heard a lot of people going back and forth this week now obviously the overseed came more into play in the Florida swing I’ve heard some people that are from Texas and from the Houston area saying that some of the Bermuda is starting to come through so
It won’t be as much of just the overseed as we’ve seen the past couple weeks but ultimately I really wouldn’t be too concerned about it the the other thing to keep in mind is this tournament was played in no November the first three years so obviously playing at the end of
March it’s going to play a little bit different it’s G to be interesting to see kind of how that comes into play generally you know the course is not exactly too soft in November it can play a little bit fast and firm but you would think in the mornings with a being cold
And damp it probably plays a little soft in the mornings and and with the cold maybe the ball doesn’t travel as far so it’s going to be interesting to see how different the course plays in March now I did look up Houston has had 10 and a
Half inches of rain already this year which is actually the most they’ve had in 120 years but again people on site are are basically saying that it really hasn’t rained that much Houston is a very very large area and they’re saying a lot of the rain has been more towards
The southern end down towards the gulf so the course itself may not have been affected that much now in the do redesign also they they put a ton of irrigation in so they can keep the course pretty dry so it might play pretty firm and fast here they got a
Little bit of rain this week but it it’s looking like the weather is going to be really really really good obviously it’s Texas so we’re going to get some winds so that can dry the course out as well but it’s going to be interesting to see how how different it plays from November
To March now the course itself we have three par FS five par 3es 10 par fours two of the par fives are reachable but number eight 630 yards not really reachable in two by by most but it did does still boast a 30% birdie rate so still a scorable hole but probably not
Really a great chance at Eagle there obviously with five par five par thres you’re going to want to take a look at at guys scoring on those par 3es and then the par fours half of them are are very long basically close to 500 yards a little over 500 yards and they’re going
To play very difficult so it’s a very long course definitely has played difficult in the past with how long the course is Fairways aren’t necessarily easily hit here but even less so when guys are just mashing it off the te so the strategy is is power over accuracy
Here and as a result the average Drive comes in over tour average 292 yards the fairways are treelined but there is a little bit of of room between the edge of the Fairway and the trees and the trees are a little bit scattered about so unless golfers are missing really
Wildly it shouldn’t come into play too much the rough should be penal but as I said with the change in in season going to be interesting to see how penal it is and then also with the PGA the way they’ve been setting everything up they’ve been setting it up a little bit
On the easier side so maybe it’s not too bad too long but approach shots are definitely going to be very long here you have 26% coming from 200 plus another 21% from 150 to 175 I’d say that 150 to 175 and 175 to 200 is is probably
The more more scoring range you know 200 you’re going to want guys that can hit that because they’re going to have a number of those approach shots but I wouldn’t be look looking for guys to get their birdies on on those holes probably more so when they’re inside that 175
Yard mark That’s when they’re going to want to stick it close and and that’s where they’ll be able to get the bulk of their scoring done now obviously with longer iron shots greens are definitely going to be missed even more so because these greens are elevated shave down
Have a lot of runoffs so guys that can hit their approaches you know if they’re hitting it close they might be able to stick these greens it’s going to be interesting to say see if it does play firm and fast because then guys are going to miss the greens quite a bit if
It plays a little bit softer maybe they can stick a little more but you’re definitely going to want some guys that that can play around the green here because it it’s not just you’re running off into a bunker or you’re running off into a deep rough where it’s just going
To stop a little bit off it you’re going to run off and and you’re going to have some tight lies and and you’re going to have to have some Wizardry around the greens here to to scramble so definitely want to keep that in mind as I said before we’re in Texas you definitely
Want to keep an eye on the Wind as of right now it looks like Thursday is the best day not going to be too terrible but as the week goes on we got somewhere around 20 M hour winds maybe a little bit higher gusts so definitely want to
Keep an eye on that it can cause Carnage in in Texas but overall it doesn’t look like there’s any wave Advantage right now basically just going to be all right on Thursday and then pick up a little bit throughout Friday and Saturday Sunday so nothing crazy but just
Something to keep in mind there and if it does pick up that’s even more so guys that are going to have to play around the green and then probably missing greens so definitely keep that in mind there’s 144 golfers in the field top 65 in ties make the cut now only seven
Golfers have actually shot double digit under par in the in the three years we’ve played here so it is a very difficult course now with the change in season and how the PGA has been setting things up this year maybe we see a little bit easier scoring
But the cut has been plus one plus two and plus four the three years it’s been here fow W it at minus 16 but he was far and way the best golfer that week so no one else was even close to him there CRA at minus 10 Ortiz minus 13 I’d say we’re
Probably somewhere around there maybe maybe minus 13ish would be my guess so if we dive into the field obviously the conversation is going to start with Scott and for good reason I mean the the guy is on a run obviously won back-to-back tournaments so I’m kind of gonna think
This out here live on the podcast because I haven’t decided what I want to do with Scotty yet and obviously with the Run he’s on with how well he’s playing with the fact that it looks like the putters come around a little bit and you know putting on overseed he he’s won
Two events straight he’s won twice at at Waste Management which also has some overseed so if the mud is popping through a little bit more maybe the greens don’t play as true as what he’s seen recently so maybe that could be an issue but for now let’s just say you
Know you’re playing on a Surface where he’s going to be able to continue to to putt the way he has been that’s scary especially when you take into account that this course is absolutely built for him he’s already played well here he has a second place finish his last time out
So loves Texas it’s Easter it’s just everything is saying Scotty Sheffer so I mean I could see him running away with this thing especially with how weak the field is but at the same time I mean if he’s going to be 40% owned 13,000 is is obviously affordable with with the 5K
Pricing and you could probably even fit another guy in there with him but you’re gonna have to get those other guys right and you know we we saw it at the Players where yeah he he won but you didn’t necessarily need him so maybe you can
Get away with it this week and I’m going to try and make a case for that you know if he does what he does and maybe the putter is not fire and he doesn’t run away with this by by three to five Strokes then if he comes seventh place
You know these other guys I love Windam here I think it’s a great course for him his length off the te he’s great with the short game so 10,900 for him I mean that that’s a huge discrepancy if if he can finish well maybe you don’t need
Scotty and then then sahit you can make make a a case for him as well I mean even if he finishes behind Scotty let’s say Scotty comes top five or let’s just say Scotty wins okay so Scotty wins and and seah is top five there’s actually a
Possibility that seah scores as much as him or possibly even outscores him because with Scotty you know he’s not going to get in trouble he’s gonna pick the course apart pick his areas to try and score and and really not too make make too many bogeys whereas seah we
Know he can be aggressive and and he can go on runs so maybe he makes a bunch of Bogies but he can make way more birdies throughout the course of a tournament than than Scotty can so while his final score might not be minus5 or maybe he doesn’t win it draftking scoring that
Doesn’t matter as long as he outscores him I I definitely think that’s in the realm of possibilities and then you have zalot torus also who who’s been playing great here recently and and it looks like a course that’s set up for him plays long difficult course as well so
There’s a lot of guys up here that I really want to play and if I’m playing Scotty I’m not going to be able to play a lot of them so that’s kind of the conundrum I have right now and obviously Scotty could run away with this thing but at
40% if he’s own 40% it it definitely you got to at least think about fading him because I think if you can make a case for these guys from a game theory standpoint if these guys end up doing better than Scotty you have passed 40% of the field that’s literally cut
Cutting whatever gpp you’re in almost in half so it’s definitely got to be considered I I probably won’t make a final decision until tomorrow on Wednesday so definitely take a look at the newsletter I’ll I’ll have my final thoughts in there but that’s where I’m
At right now with Scotty as I said I I love Windam I definitely I want to play him if I’m playing Scotty obviously I can’t go there but I do think that this course fits him rather well he’s played this course all right so far but like I
Said small sample size not going to go crazy there but I I love see I’ve already made an outright on him at 22 to1 10,300 I think is a good price for him so since getting his first career win in September at the foret he he’s looked
Like a totally different golfer I mean finished top 10 in four of his eight tournaments so far this year so got gotta like that ninth most recently at the Players large part of the success is he’s cleaned up off the tea a lot he was spraying it all over the place last year
But he’s gained Strokes off the te in 13 of his last 14 tournaments he’s seventh in the field in Strokes gained off the te so far in 2024 so go to like that and then obviously the the Putter’s been on fire he’s been gaining Strokes in 10 of
His last appear 10 of his last 11 appearances with the flat stick so I I like him quite a bit now I’m gonna play zalot torus as well I’ve actually decided not to make any first round leader bets and actually threw in an extra outright because my my
Card was kind of done but I I just the more I look at zotus I think this is a great course for him he’s beening playing incredible this well I I do think that this suits his skill set now if he starts missing some greens maybe
That’s a bit of an issue but he’s very good with the long iron so I think if he’s he’s hitting these greens and and he’s a good lag putter I I do like him here another guy that I’m considering is feno obviously he he won here hasn’t
Really been playing great this year he’s been striking the irons incredibly well so similar to zotus if he can hit these greens then maybe he can do some damage here but if I’m playing Chef there’s no chance I’m playing Fen now but right now he’s looking at he’s probably somewhere
Around 10 to 12% owned so if if he’s one of the lower owned guys up here I think you can make a case for him but it is hard because I do also like SEI wo quite a bit I I’ve also made an outright on
Him at 33 to1 with top six each way he’s made the cut in all eight appearances in 2024 so not not as volatile as we’re used to with him played great at the Players finishing sixth place had an incred incredible closing round there shot 64 which which matched Scotty for
The low round of the day he looks good statistically too over the last 24 rounds 7th in Strokes gained off the T 14th in Strokes gained approach 10th in bogey avoidance and he’s gained Strokes on approach in seven of his last eight tournaments so love where he’s at statistically he’s played well here
Before he missed the cut in 2021 but 35th in 2022 actually played better than that 35th Place finish would imply he ended up making bogey on three of his final five holes so really was playing much better than that and then all of a sudden just gave it all back basically
Over over the final stretch then if we go down a little bit further I’m fine with Jason day another guy that’s played well here I bet him at 28 to1 so I I do like him he’s played well here before it looks like a course that will fit him Alex noren’s going to
Be pretty popular but I think for good reason you know great with the bogey avoidance been playing well here has played well here in the past so I want to keep an eye on his ownership if he gets two out of hand I’m I’m probably not going there
But Keith Mitchell as of right now I I think I’m G to be fading him I think he’s going to be pretty popular despite the the collapse last week but he gained a ton of Strokes on approach last week but they’re slightly skewed due to that hole out on Saturday
He’s been terrible around the greens terrible with his his putter so if he’s hitting greens that’s all great but as as we said if this place is gonna if you’re gon to miss greens it’s not really he he doesn’t have the around green around the green game to make up
For it and especially the putting so I think if if last week gets into his head and he gets off to a rough start he could absolutely implode here so if he’s going to be somewhere around 15 to 177% Owned I’m fine skipping right over Keith
Mitchell Tom hogi you can make a case for just absolutely incredible with the irons with even with how good Scotty is he’s hogi still first in Strokes gain approach so you definitely can make a case for him but as I said with Keith Mitchell without the around the green
Game and he’s been putting a little bit better but not much I I think think I’m GNA skip over him there considering Aaron Ry at 8600 just a guy that plays difficult course as well obviously he was chalk last week and and didn’t come through at all so maybe you get a little
Bit of flop leg and he comes in a little bit lower owned so do like that also I I love Billy horel here probably going to be looking at a placement bet on him but at 8,300 I I do think that that’s a great price for him with how
Well he’s been playing I think this is a course that fits him as well and then down here I’m G to try and jam as many guys at the top you know it’s been basically the theme recently is is get the guys right at the top and and hone
In on certain guys throughout the the rest of the board and and really just scatter shot the top and and I’m not going to play a lot of guys down here I I just don’t like a lot I do think Jake knap makes some sense here you know
Obviously him spraying it off the tea isn’t as much of a concern here and he’s great with Strokes gained approach he’s good on par three scoring pretty good with the the bogey avoidance so I think it could be a good course for him want to keep an eye on his ownership as well
Taylor Moore has just been so consistent really not Mak missing any Cuts so I I think he’s a safe play at 7600 want to keep an eye on and his ownership as well hasn’t played well here recently so it’s kind of a you know course history versus
Recent history but he he’s been playing so well I’m fine going there at 7600 then I’m gonna play one of baa or list I don’t think I want both of them in the player pool baa has been incredible lately and and obviously the putter has looked really good in spots
So if he can bring the putter I I I think he definitely plays well list on the other hand not really looking too good lately but I do think this is a course that could fit his skill set so not going to play both of them leaning
Btia right now but we’ll see may maybe by tomorrow I I do end up playing both of them but I as of right now I I think it’s going to be one or the other then as we get down here further there’s not
A lot of guys I like at all I will go Joel Damon 7,100 I do think that it is a good price for him obviously he play well last week and played well at the Players also he he’s ball very well very good on approach so I I like where
His game is at Mark hubard also 7,000 I I think this could be a place where he can maybe do some damage not going to play a lot of him but do need some of these guys down here in this lower price range so I’m fine going to him with the
Current games of Sam Ryder and and Novak at the same price 6,900 I definitely think you can make a case for both of them now obviously Ryder had a a great weekend this past week Novak had has looked really good so I I like the both
Of them want to keep an eye on Novak’s ownership I’ve heard him talked up quite a bit this week but he looks good you know very good on approach but he also has the around the green game to complement it so I I do like that quite
A bit and then I’m gonna go back to Matt Wallace he was in that DraftKings lineup I was talking about with with Keith Keith Mitchell wasn’t able to really do much on Sunday to help Propel that one but he didn’t really hurt it either so
At 6700 I I think makes sense for him he plays difficult courses pretty well plays longer courses all right and if the win picks up I I think that doesn’t hurt him too much either and then Ryan Moore has has been playing incredible golf 6,500 fourth in Strokes gained
Approach over the last 24 rounds had had a couple nice finishes if he could really just make a couple putts on Sunday he actually could have possibly won that tournament last week so I like Ryan Moore Sam Stevens on on a a driver heavy
Has the distance so I I do like him down here at 6,400 and then just a couple other guys really I’m looking at is Bud colie 6200 Texas guy been playing well since he’s returned obviously he’s fading a little bit on the weekends but I mean that
Could just be being out of golf for so long so maybe that comes back to him but he he’s been playing well overall especially in the earli round so I do like him at 6200 Chris gdup is is probably a better goer than a lot of the
Guys down here so 6100 I I think is okay for him and obviously he has the the distance that I think you want here and then if I head down into the five Cas I really don’t think there’s a lot here maybe Henrik norlander just with his bogey avoidance ability and and he
Okay on the par 3es pretty good on approach so I I I think he would probably be the only guy I’d really consider down here if excuse me if I’m not playing Scotty though I obviously it doesn’t even really matter that much I
Don’t need to go in the 5Ks as much so I I do like that actually but if we recap the betting card so far I have zalatoris at 20 to1 I have seah theala at 22 to1 Jason day 28 SEIU Kim 33 with a top six
Each way and then I threw something on Joel Damon at 100 to one and also have the top six each way on him placement bets I’ve made top 20 on zalot torus at minus 105 theala at even money and probably going to do a placement on Billy horel we’ll see if
Anything else catches my eye probably going to bet a couple matchups as well but you can check out the helm sports.com for my final card also it will be in the newsletter so check that out the Hardcore Parkour is already up my course preview is up over at the helm
Sports.com so check that out but that’s going to do it for this week going to be an interesting one definitely got to figure out what I want to do with Scotty but I I definitely think you can make a case for fadum this week now maybe that
Comes back to bite me but I’ve lost plenty of money on DraftKings so it doesn’t really worry me that much because if it pays off it pays off huge so I I do think it’s actually worth taking a risk this week but that’s going to do it for this week as always thank
You for listening I am your host derck Helm and remember step fun out there
