Joe Idone (@TourPicks) previews the 2024 edition of the Houston Open golf tournament with his three best longshot bets for this week’s PGA TOUR event.
You can read RotoBaller’s full coverage of the Houston Open (2024) here with Joe’s Power Rankings, Course Preview, PGA DFS, and golf betting analysis each week:
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Yo yo yo welcome in friends to another edition of launching long shots this time we have been cleared for takeoff for the Houston open another long shot winner last week with Peter malady 400 to one I mean what can you really do it seems like these guys are coming out of
Absolutely nowhere um I was looking up earlier just the guys in the field for the Masters here which takes place in two weeks only three PGA Tour win ERS this entire 2024 season are priced under 125 to1 for the Masters there are eight guys priced in triple digit figures over
125 to1 it’s been an absolutely unreal season in terms of sort of predicting golf we’ve got three guys long odds we’re going to try to do it again um let’s see what we got for the Houston open should mention the show is probably presented by the team over at Roto
Baller the promo code if you want access to everything that I do each every week do all of Joe nicely’s content do all of the models and stats and metrics built by the model maniac and Spencer agar the promo code you want to use is lines
That’s l i NES it’s in reference to the podcast that I do each and every week covering the betting board preferred lines check that show out as well subscribe to that YouTube channel we’ve got some nice t-shirts up that are available um it will ship in time for
Augusta in two weeks if you choose to support that show we appreciate you being here on behalf of the Roto baller Community let’s get into some bombs starting off the board 80 to1 a defending champion last week at the V bar who played pretty well in all you
Know being completely honest he finished T12 last week t31 the week prior to that at the Players Championship I think he possesses a lot of the tools necessary if you want to if you want to win this week and here’s the big thing that I think is being undermentioned this week um
The ability for them to shift this golf course on the PGA tour schedule to March has created this um overseed with this poet trivialis that is going to I believe make the golf course play faster it’s going to make the golf course play very different they’ve cut the rough
From 2 and a half Ines down to 1.25 in so there basically is no rough you’ve heard a couple of players mention this in the press conferences leading up I think I want to go I think I want to go bomb her um here’s
Who I got the first one on my board I mentioned him just a second ago um let’s talk about Taylor more for a minute because he gained five and a half Strokes on approach last week at the vbar just three starts before that at the Genesis Invitational a t31 despite
Losing nearly a stroke and a half putting and he gained 6.28 on approach there 3.8 the week before so three of his last five starts he’s gained at least 3.8 Strokes on approach that to me screams a guy who is in the midst of a
Good run with his irons you see here the ball speed is at 179 tour average is 172 um his driving distance is there he’s capable of hitting the ball far enough is HE capable of getting a hot enough putter to win here that remains to be
Seen because what we’ve seen though is a bit of unpredictability with the putters we’ve SE Carlos Ortiz finished fifth in Strokes game putting not a great putter Jason kokra finished third the year that he won not a tremendous Putter and of course Tony fow last year finished
Second for the week in Strokes game putting a complete anomaly but these are guys who ball strike it very well these are guys who are long off the te these are guys who have a relatively low ball flight in my opinion that’s set up great for this course at Memorial Park okay
Long shot number two for the week by the way Taylor Moore is plus 250 in a top 20 Market I really like that bet as well here’s a guy plus 350 in the top to 20 Market um he’s coming off a number of good finishes let me read you his last five
Starts there’s a miscut at the Players Championship but beyond that Waste Management Phoenix Open T8 Mexico open eighth cognizant classic ninth vbar last week t17 of course I couldn’t be talking about anyone else other than the stud Andrew Novak and you want to look at Strokes gained approach in his last five
Starts three of those over five Strokes gained on on approach those are big time numbers you see there a little bit of volatility with the putter but you’re overall seeing plenty of green I think this course I actually like the Mexico open I know the fairways are really wide
There but with no rough it’s going to turn into what I believe to be a bombers Paradise guys hammering driver off the te without a severe penalty for miss you see they gain 10 Strokes T to Green at that type of golf course I think that this while being very different VIs
Usually to your eye is going to play similarly to the actual skill set required to compete required to win he’s not a huge bomber off the te but you see there when you have those approach numbers he’s very proficient with his long irons as well um Andrew Novak has
Been in fantastic form Green’s in regulation he ranks 13th in the field 10th in Strokes gain total versus the field I mentioned those previous starts he’s on a very hot run when guys are 100 to one on a hot run plus 350 in a top 20
Market you may want to keep going there okay finally last long shot of the week um the balls on this guy to post the Ryder Cup score on his caddy bib at the V bar um shows me a couple of things but it also shows me that he’s not afraid
Right if he’s staring down the barrel of Scotty sheffler on a Sunday I don’t think this is a player that backs down one of the things with the overseed as well is it’s going to um increase the emphasis on around the green play because a lot of the way that Tom do
Designed these greens in these sort of upside down Bowl complexes where everything runs off the side they’re able to mow it much tighter now so it’s going to um enhance sort of the runoffs that come down around these greens I think around the green play is going to
Be very important um he’s a top five player around the Green in this field I think that he hits it plenty far enough I’m talking about big Bobby Mack he’s 130 to one right now plus 400 in a top 20 Market um been lingering last five
Starts same thing you have one miss cut at the Players which I’m willing to forgive Mexico cognizant Puerto Rico vbar all made Cuts he got really hot with the putter last week I wouldn’t say really hot but he had a really good round last week at the Valar putting to
Finish t33 I think that his game is trending in a right direction I think that um from a ceiling standpoint in Talent over the next 5 years he eclipses the majority of the guys in this range that are 125 to 200 to one we’ve seen plenty of them hit this season let’s see
If we can get one this week for the Houston open thank you for checking out launching long shots at tour picks is the place that you can find me on X or Twitter I appreciate you all make sure to get in on that Roto baller subscription time has coming for major
Season you’re going to want to pick out one of those premium plans for the next four months at a very minimum minimum the best suits what you need we’ve got you completely covered um in every aspect of betting DFS handicapping professional golf we got you talk to you
Guys soon I’m out of here good luck this week peace
