Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) and Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) to break down BETS and DFS options for the 2024 Houston Texas Childrens Open.
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R of Ballers we are back for the Texas Children’s Houston open my main man AKA T off Sports AKA Spencer agar aka the drip machine to my left hand side of you joins me once again for the root to baller PGA show what’s cooking on this fine Monday evening Spencer impressive
Getting that name out as cleanly as you did Byron that’s uh you’re in tiptop form to begin this on a Monday got to got to Rattle off early before your mouth gets lazy and and kind of in the mood to just kind of make some mistakes
But we got ourselves a mouthful we got about as many words as we do like Elite golfers playing this week which is okay you know we had the V barar last week with all Peter Mady we can chat about that for a second but I think you know
Everyone’s trying to really just create Spencer The Players Once More the reason you you can’t enjoy the you can’t enjoy the lights you can’t enjoy the brightness you can’t enjoy the shine without the darkness you got to have disaster you got to have despair you got
To have the ying and the Yang and I think you know when you have the the tournaments like the valpa where the likes like Justin Thomas crowd favorites did not enjoy the Limelight of the valpar let’s be honest like we’ve had Jordan spe not want to win that tournament JT Now Keith
Mitchell we got to enjoy those like the valpar you know the the gray the gloomy so be it it is what it is it makes the weekends the weeks like when Scotty Sheffer wins when Sam Burns wins you know all that that much more enjoyable
So I don’t know do you have a a particular take on that I mean kind of I’m probably in the minority with this answer um because everybody does want to see all the top players going head-to-head every week but I think that’s what makes golf fun and and it’s
It’s those storylines of a Peter Mady that can go countless years without winning and all of a sudden he gets himself back into the winner circle it’s these you know tournaments with a cut where there’s an ability to have real storylines that are written on Friday and then continuous storylines that are
Written on Sunday so um you know I think the average fan yeah there’s some nature that you lose a lot of players to live and you want this to be Scotty shuffler versus Rory mroy down the stretch and while that’s a lot of fun I still think
That equally on the opposite end of the spectrum there for golf to thrive you need the the second tier guides the the guys that are barely keeping their card like Joel Damon has become a fan favorite in a lot of ways like whether it’s because of the reality shows that
They have put him on on Netflix or his personality that he brings to the table he’s relatable and I think that relatability that that certain of these guys can have when they are struggling to make Cuts they’re struggling to make a living this is not as simple as
Sheffler putting together 8.5 million in the span of two weeks which congratulations to Scotty for being the best golfer at this current time but there’s a lot more that goes into golf than that and and I think that even just on top of it it’s really difficult to
Win a golf tournament Byron um you don’t have to look any further than Cameron young like how many times can we get into contention with him and he doesn’t actually get across the finish line and I think that makes it to when Scotty Sheffer does win these events it’s it’s
That much more impressive because it’s not that easy to go out and win every event and you see Sports books this week with at 3 to one and I understand why he’s priced the way that he is my Mall had him number one across the board in
Every single metric that I’ve ran I’ve never had that for a golfer in a tournament before but it’s still challenging to win he could come in second place and have whoever it is wam Clark could shoot a around you could have one of these guys further down the
Board so that is what makes golf fun is the storyline so I thought the valsar was a nice tournament um I know that there’s a lot of people that’s like if Peter malady has won golf is ruined the PGA Tour is ruined has as we know it but
I I I don’t agree with that take no no I enjoyed watching I I enjoyed watching Peter malady try win a golf tournament you know like Spencer you make Scotty makes it when Scotty’s winning he makes it look so easy you know the way he can just control his golf ball it just
Teleports from point A to point B Peter malady’s teleport it’s like it’s it doesn’t quite go off according to plan you know like he teleports balls even the wrong color like everything is wrong with color he doesn’t wear the right hat you know like everything about him just
Doesn’t make any sense I love it you know so we need characters like that and you know the the interview afterwards was also obviously lots of fun to kind of you know see the emotion and everything behind there but it’s good it’s good Justin Thomas just ejected
Himself out of that tournament so hard Spence the guy lost what like eight Strokes putting in one round of golf I think it’s one I think it’s his worst performance of putting ever it’s like tell me you don’t want to be at the dance without telling me you
Don’t want to be at the dance there were a lot of weird performances last week that’s clearly the strangest one on the putting greens that he put together but I mean there were there were some awkward returns and there’s a lot of chalk that ended up missing the cut when
We look at Sam Burns and ranman Ryan Harmon and I mean I felt into the Aaron Ry trap so there there were a lot of names that didn’t get through and then uh I mean there were at portions of that Leaderboard on Sunday where I mean it
Was everybody that is who you were not expecting to be up there and I think you know at the end melatti winning it makes it a little bit weirder but I think if you just look at the leaderboard at the end Xander’s up there Cameron Young’s up
There it’s a lot of players you would expect but like Xander never had a chance one of those classic back door out of nowhere Here Comes Xander storming up the leader you know somebody needs to work with Xander I don’t know if he has a sports psychologist but he
Needs to be hypnotized like before some of his rounds when he has the lead on Sunday just tell him he’s going out he’s 10 sh shots back he has no chance to actually win this thing yeah I don’t understand what’s wrong with him and I don’t understand what’s wrong with
Cameron young it’s like the same answers with a lot of these guys to where um winning golf tournaments is difficult but they make it even more challenging on themselves for whatever reason and I I didn’t love Cameron Young’s demeanor even when he lost like he’s almost reached the point right now where he’s
Just like accepted yeah he’s like I know it’s gonna happen who cares at this point yes he he’s gone full submissive mode and it’s he’s never holding a whip ever again I would say you know like it’s it’s not good for Camy unless it’s a major I think he’s first he’s gonna be
One of these guys Spencer who just wins Majors like he’s gonna go Brooks but like way harder version of that like three wins in his career Two us opens and a PJ Championship you know like that’s gonna be his his resume and so be
It I don’t know how he’s going to do it but he’s gonna do it he just tends to play better in those situations he just like he hit the most miraculous recovery shot and then three putts it like the first putt wasn’t even close
It’s just he just gave up you know so it was there but hey it is what it is so let’s let’s chat some golf you spenc and before we dive into it I have some trivia for you about the Memorial golf course the Memorial Park golf course at the Texas Children’s Houston
Open so we’ve got that going for us there so Spencer tomm me who’s shot the worst we’ve played here for 3 years in November the prevailing winds haven’t necessarily eclipsed you know 10 six miles an hour you know there’s been two days what is the worst score been shot
And who shot it at this golf course three years so I went to my course history just to see what some of the scores were that players have actually produced like the worst total that I can see on the board unless I’m missing somebody would be bo Hustler or Grayson
Murray at 17 overp par the first year so I guess based off of that answer and if I’ll say Grayson Murray yes what did Grayson Murray shoot well I’ll tell you now he lost 12.7 Strokes to the field shooting at 85 oh my God I was assuming it would be in the
80s based off of there was probably one of those rounds that was like 81 82 85 is even worse than that 85 for those of you not paying attention is 15 overp at this golf course so brutal times over there it’s essentially an 88 or 87 so
Tough scenes and then we’ve got two guys Spencer both have shot what I believe is the course record yeah I don’t know a 62 in the three years that have been played who are they or least I’ll assume one is fenal because he’s 16 under par With the Wind
So I I assume he probably got up there I I mean I I don’t know if this is the correct answer um don’t overthink it it’s I’ll say Carlos Ortiz I’ll say it’s the two winners that have yeah it’s him or Scotty Sheffer so Scotty shot a 62 I
Think after barely making the cut you know in 2022 I think so um Sheffer has gained nine Strokes in that round for the 62 and then Fen now gained eight which is quite crazy to think you know so between Grayson Murray and and Scotty sheffer’s two rounds there we got casual
20.8 Strokes between the two rounds of golf so fun stuff going on over there let’s chat about Scotty Sheffer I think from what I can see the last three years at least no one’s been priced $133,000 outside of golf is playing the T Championship Scotty has been priced at
13k flat awesome this is what we’re looking for we’re not looking for people to just dump 60% of their salary or their exposure onto Scotty call it a day and then and roll on like we need some sort of payoff you know like trade-off that you need for a golfer that’s this
Good so finally getting a $133,000 golf is Spence talk to me about Scotty shef at the top of the board yeah what do you think his ownership will end up being um that’s that’s to me is one of the question marks here I I to me and maybe
I’m wrong here I think he’ll probably still sneak into the 30% plus range um somewhere between 30 to 38% that’s a very large range there that would be given I’ll let you answer that question and then I’ll I’ll talk about Scotty a little bit yeah I would say he he’s
Going to be 30% I feel like it’s a 3 to one it’s tough it’s tough to you know like people are going to fall into that trap so we can chat but we’ve seen you know if it wasn’t for that Co record round or the 62 doesn’t necessarily play
The best golf at this golf course so I don’t know Spencer what um what are your thoughts on Scotty I think the problem with this board in general this was kind of one of the first things I noticed so like I’ll answer it as a DFS question and then
I’ll also talk about it in the betting of this being 3 to one and kind of some of the situations that came into play I talked about this at the beginning Scotty is the only golfer that has ever for me been number one in every single category that I’ve run like
Number one and expected weighted T to Green number one in expected Strokes gain total he’s number one on Long par 70s he’s number one on hard courses he put together the number one score for me and weighted scoring he was number one in uh I would call it another additional
Scoring category it took bir or better bogy avoidance couple other categories number two for weight appr proximity that was the one category I did not run it went into The Strokes gain total aspect of it but Tom hogi was number one there and that’s kind of what the answer
What hog yeah exactly I don’t know like it’s really hard for me to not want to play Scotty sheffler I thought at the Players even though he ended up going to win the tournament that was a highly volatile course where you’ve seen guys go win Miss cut second miscut and it
Seemed like it was possible that Scotty could put together a similar sort of trajectory I think we’ve seen with his ball striking that Scotty is not like every other player on tour right now he may not be Peak Tiger Woods of what we got years ago but you know he’s the
Closest thing that we’ve had to him even if it’s like a stroke difference in uh expected Strokes gain total that he’s putting together so I like that he’s $113,000 I think pricing is very soft at the bottom which makes it more conducive to actually build lineups with him I
Thought pricing in general was pretty stout across the board I thought where the problems came into play were more at the bottom to where I could find you know five to 10 guys that were like $6,000 or less that were playable commodities for me so I thought that
Made him very enticing to put into lineups if he’s only 30% um I think part of the problem with that is and I’d like to get your opinion on this in a second but take Windom take sawah take will zator take fenal that’s the top five of
My model in the exact order that they were priced out so I don’t think that there’s any mistakes that were made and that’s kind of what makes these DFS boards difficult sometime before you touch on that do want to very quickly mention the outright Board of him being
Three to one whether or not you believe that’s the right answer there and we could have that discussion at a different time yeah my biggest concern with this board is that sportsbooks made Scotty shuffler three to one and then decided to do nothing about everybody else’s total and you’ve put Windam at 12
And you’ve put you know this player at 18 and that player at 22 and you’ve ruined the value on the board like you’ve kind of said these are the five or six favorites or the sports books have said these are the five or six favorites if you want to bet them at a
Bad price have at it that’s gonna probably be who wins this golf contest but you’re not going to get value on this board and I hate this tournament from an outright betting perspective like if you look at my card and it’s in my roto ball article it’s ually 300 to
One Long Shots where I’m just randomly throwing Flyers out there and hoping that something sticks I I kind of think that the Winner’s probably one of those five names I said even if it’s not Scotty so I I just I hate the way that this tournament’s priced yeah you were
Mentioning before we went live that this is one of the worst ons boards you’ve ever seen so you did a pretty good job of not really letting that come that across spend I I sat this morning just woke up staring at the odds board just don’t know I don’t know what to do
Usually I’ve got a an area a plan and a track strategy no this week just sat there and I’m like oh would bet this guy if he was like double those OD I’d bet this guy if he was six points more so sitting here I’ve only made one bet Ben
So we’ll get to that down the down the stretch here but to me again I think this week I’m gonna I’m Gonna Leave Scotty alone it was working pretty nicely with Xander last week you know when you get these 30% guys that are that high I mean 13k is you got
To figure out some serious stuff going on down there and I think I’m okay just taking my I’m not that good of a DFS player to figure out who the other five guys are going to be that’s going to be with Scotty sheffler so do you play
Scotty shefley in single entry spenc or you playing him in in 150 Maxes I mean to be honest with you and maybe this because I think in theory if you look at this and let’s just use 150 entries as the answer here because I think in in single entries he’s a lot
Easier to play like that’s just the natural answer that’s going to come into play I think in 150 mans in general if you did nothing throughout your entire DFS life other than fade 30% plus golfers you would be more advantageous taking that route than randomly sneaking
Them into builds I think from a game theory perspective you want to try to eliminate as many people as you possibly can I I just worry that even if Scotty doesn’t end up winning and it kind of goes back to the answer that I gave that I do think that
Pricing even like 7,000 and Below there’s a lot of ways to fit in names that I really like this week that I thought should have been much more expensive and there’s not a lot of ownership around a lot of these names like you will have a few where there’s
Ownership like and Andrew Novak is going to carry a lot of popularity this week and my model liked him also but there were guys at the very bottom whether that’s a geyser or a a brid men or any of those names that I think they’re
Going to be sub five% that my model is so much higher on them than public perception that I’m kind of just rolling with Scotty and not making the same mistake that I necessarily usually make in this spot hey you know that’s the thing it’s you got to figure out your
Strategy and go from there because it’s a conundrum it’s and it’s a very it’s a very counterintuitive answer of what I normally give you never hear like I think it is it’s very rare that you hear me go on a show and not try to find every reason to avoid shock on the
Board I I’m always the person that’s like he’s over whatever percent I’m out and like that’s the very natural answer in a lot of these spots but I I don’t know Byron I just think Scotty he’s becoming a wide receiver one you know like in NFL DFS you can tell
Who the chalk wide receivers are and they produce right where Scotty he’s just it’s all about the price now because he’s his top five top 10 Market is absolutely nuked I’ve been betting that religiously you know at- 140 for a top 10 minus 275 for a top 10 this week
I mean there are markets out there there’s markets out there where it’s Scotty versus the field and you can get the field at like minus 325 or minus 350 that’s I mean we haven’t hit a ball yet it’s kind of just I mean whether it’s just unbelievable what Scotty has put
Together and it’s still difficult to win a golf tournament I’m not coming on here saying that Scotty is going to necessarily win this event I think 3 to one is probably closer than most people actually believe it to be um I I’m not going to bet him at that price the
Exposure that you would have to get to get a ticket down there is just not within what I want to do with my bankroll but at $113,000 I can get my exposure that way and be just perfectly fine yes I think that’s the way to go Spence because then you just got to
Figure out the other five guys and rock and roll so Scotty’s likely going to be inside the top 10 and that’s you know a good chance is going to be part of the optimal but at 13k who the heck knows what that’s going to be right I mean it
Provides fascinating fantasy play you know and I think that’s what we’re looking for we’re looking for challenging environments especially with this 5K range I think they’ve been loosening us up with this big drop so we got a bunch of jabronies here in the 10K range you know casual $2,100 off Scotty
Sheffer with wam clock at 109 will Z rounding out at 101 I am eyeing out to hit the G I’ve already bet him 20 22 to1 he’s just been playing too good he leads into this week you know two top 10 I think he played quite nicely when he did play
He’s driving the ball great he’s just my guy I think I’m just going with the guys I’ve been on the whole time 22 to1 is disgusting I’ve been betting siah at like 50s you know the last little while but again this if you look at the rest
Of the names below him it’s like okay I know Sith can win a golf tournament I’ve not seen him Go full Keith Mitchell and and finish 17th after leading off with about two strokes entering the final round you know like he’s going to hang at least you know and winning golf
Tournaments is tough and he can he can do it he’s got the mental capacity to to at least lose it on the final hole and not lose it before he stepped out of bed you know that morning so that to me is exciting about him give me him 22 to one
And then I haven’t placed the BET yet Spencer but I’m kind of curious about W zures I’ve been placing on him pretty much I was taking a shower and thinking you know how good his agent has been since coming back outside of the Sony every other tournament has just been
Amazing for him you know the farmers the the big boy tournaments you know just all these all these events API you know all these courses that suit how he plays and then he obviously made it into the players and miss the cut it’s perfect so this golf course again another long ass
Golf course not a lot of scoring you know we’re gonna expect what do you expect this cost the to players spener minus 10 I’m gonna go more difficult I’m gonna go I’ve kind of changed I’m gonna go a little bit easier than that my reason
For that is I think the time change from November to March I think one of two things happens here and this is where it becomes challenging to figure out you now get this dormant Bermuda it’s going to be over seated you get softer Landing areas I think that could make scoring a
Little bit easier I also think that there’s a chance that you might get a little bit heavier wins during this time of the month so uh you know it’s a given take here does the wind outweigh the softer conditions does the softer conditions make the wind not necessarily
Matter as much I don’t I don’t necessarily think that this is going to be some very difficult course or a birdie Fest at the end of the day I the PGA Tour consistently keeps trying to put us in these spots and I think it took some weather last week for that
Probably become a little bit softer or a little bit easier I should say than we’ve been like a little bit harder than we’ve been getting sorry over the past little bit but I don’t know Byron I have a feeling that this course might end up creeping out a little bit more into like
The 14 15 16 17 under sort of range which changes the Outlook quite a bit yes and that’s something I wanted to mention about last week is I placed that Sam Burns bed thinking okay let’s go get to 18 under par let’s do this thing again I didn’t even look at the weather
Monday morning which should have I should have and that plays a big role Sam Burns was never going to win that tournament finishing at minus 12 you know like I just thought it was going to be a different situation L up missing the cut so I think that makes a big role
Spence and I think from what I looked at the prevailing winds in November don’t really make it much more than 10 miles per hour and then the winds expected this week are sitting at like 12 so we we’re going to see a bit more wind this week in my opinion Keith Stewart was
Saying that the the new grass can make it allow the ball to get to where they want the ball to roll to this the time round you know November wasn’t allowing them to get the grass growing the way they want to kind of you know get the overseed Manu maneuvering
Balls further to the runoff areas this this time around we could expect that so I have no freaking idea we’ll we’ll have to wait and see and see what happens but um I’m in on those two guys I think Willie Z’s got a chance to win any golf
Tournament when the moment the score is between minus 8 and-4 you know like I think once it gets a bit higher than that he struggles to get all the way up there with the birdie so which uh which of those two are you are you favoring I’m I’m kind of out on
Wam Clark just because of his price tags Spence you know at an outright perspective at least yeah I I also think the ownership um I mean it’ll remains to be seen right now but I think windham’s going to be very popular um yeah my mentality for the most part because even
When you throw Scotty into a build like if you throw Scotty and fow you have 6775 left and while that doesn’t seem like much all of a sudden 5100 you back in you’re throw in a Bridgeman at 55 you’re up to 72 you throw in somebody
Else lower and you can work your way back up and this isn’t as like Boomer bust of a lineup as you would expect it to be but um I think ownership’s going to be a very big decide here of how I’m going to look between the Clark the gala
Zuris fenale section there specifically if I am going to play Scotty sheffler at the top one of the things I’ve always noticed about sah theala and I I found this at at the fortnet when he won that tournament any time that he has positive trajectory in my model for weighted
Proximity that’s usually the courses that he ends up playing the best St so 48th in my model and expected proximity here that’s better than the 108th over the base line data that I have uh not quite the highend numbers that we got at the fortnet but also not as far away as
You would think it would be there like it’s kind of very similar answers for when he ended up winning that tournament I think with zalot torus it just comes down to I worry a little bit about the around the green game like I I did put an extra
Emphasis on around the green and we had seen there for a very short period that he was gaining Strokes now all of a sudden around the green which is kind of always what he does not do and now it’s slipped back again recently with it so
Um you know I think there’s an argument to be made that if this does start creeping into that 15 16 17 18 under sort of range I think you put out a really good argument about why zalot Taurus’s upside gets capped a little bit and if there are some concerns like the
Proximity numbers are going to look great but if there are some concerns about his ability to salvage par in some of these situations because of the around the green game you know we’re comparing him kind of like I said it’s the the top five between Sheffer Clark
Theala zotor and fenal is is my exact five of my model this week which you don’t always get that answer like I do think my model is very safe in a lot of its outputs with the way that I run it but you usually get like some some more
Extreme outliers than there were this week like this was kind of just a board where the five favorites were the legitimate five favorites and then that’s why ownership all of a sudden becomes so important because there’s not that big of a difference between any of them like I think in a head-to-head
Matchup if you threw any of them against any of the other ones you’re probably looking somewhere between like minus 130 being the deepest anybody would get to Sheffer is going to run circles around any of when run numbers there but um it’s an ownership game for me at the end
Of the day which doesn’t necessarily help for this show but that’s something that we can figure out in the next 48 hours yeah exactly I think um daber mentioning here that he’s not a not a fan of what Keith was are saying about the Bermuda it is what it is you know in
My opinion I think the wind will be a bit more important I think it’ll keep the scores down this this has typically been a difficult golf course you know I think when when finan got to minus 16 the the second place guy was like minus 12 you know so they still weren’t really
Tearing it up all that well so I think bie ofoen is definitely more important that birdie rates this week and less par five scoring Spencer par 70 five par threes this week so interesting stuff in that situation who’s your who’s your favorite 9k range Spencer is there is there a guy
In this range that’s going to shoot the best round of the week and I’m also curious as to who’s going to shoot the worst round of the week and it’s going to be anyone above $88,000 I mean it’s probably a pretty natural answer to say fow would
Potentially do it again like he he is the best player in the $9,000 range I I think if you were to give me somebody that’s a little bit maybe not off the radar with the percentage but if I wanted to go a little bit lower my model
Loves Steven jger every single week like I’ve been waiting for the Steven Jagger breakout victory for what feels like two years now at this point and he had the corn fairy success that he had put together and he had a lot of Victories there that hasn’t necessarily translated
And uh we’ve had discussions on this show and there’s a lot of discussions that have been had about joerger just with what his upside actually is but I know the recent run isn’t necessarily what you would want to see with two Miss Cuts in a 44th but I thought the third
At the Mexico open and the third at the farmers was like the first time that joerger actually put himself in the contention to win a golf tournament well yeah and it didn’t go the way that you would want but sometimes just getting extra reps in when you are
In contention can help unless you are Cameron young apparently who can’t get across the Finish Line in those situations but I think Jagger is an extremely talented golfer he’s inside the top five of my model in Strokes gain total Strokes gain TAA green like the the total aspect of it is the Intriguing
One because it takes some of the putting into thex there he’s inside the top five for me and weighted scoring like there was just so many metrics with joerger to where if he pops he can pop in a really big way and I thought the all the
Players that we’re talking about where I thought there was a bunch of overpriced Commodities here where like you couldn’t really get there I thought joerger at 50 to1 markets were still somewhat disrespecting him just because we haven’t seen that Victory yet and and I understand like until you get that win
Everybody is incapable of winning but sometimes it just takes that one victory at a course like this to where Jagger now all of a sudden catapults himself into a legitimate top 20 player well my my point I was trying to make when I said and then was mcut t-44 mcut when
I’ve been betting him for top 20 in all three of those tournaments like he was playing such automatic golf and has just completely fallen off the radar since getting to Florida yeah like maybe it’s just fine maybe it’s time to just leave him alone until well we in Texas now so
Maybe and that’s definitely a narrative Spencer is these guys that aren’t necessarily like the best in Florida like for Ryan Palmer for me I’ll be playing him just just because I know he likes Florida I mean Texas courses so Jesus Christ he needs to get it together
Does Steph Jagger because I’m gonna be going back to him for another top 20 this course suits him so well he’s such a good driver of the golf ball got a good short game I feel like he should be thriving at this kind of a venue it’s go
Time Florida was not good to him at all spener no and it was mostly with the putter is what was holding him back there he lost 1.2 at the Players 3.2 at the API uh 3.2 the week before that so I mean like he he didn’t I mean he lost over a
Stroke putting each time he was on a Florida course I I think the one thing here inside of my model that I was most intrigued with like this is one of the categories and we’ve talked about this in the past I am not somebody who necessarily
Weighs putting as much as a lot of people I’m usually lower on the putting I’m trying to find the ball Strikers but one of the things I like to do is I like to take comp whether it’s comp courses or just comp returns that you’re getting at similar courses similar green
Complexes any of these overseed type Bermuda courses like if I can throw that together and figure out what is your Baseline putting and then what is your expected putting for this course and my model for the most part it’s like it’s kind of why I ended up with Scotty on
The API and I laid a seven to one price that I normally never would when I can see that increase in my model take place then all of a sudden it’s like well the ball striking returns are where you want it to be it’s always the putter that
Holds a player back and I’ve given this answer I don’t even know how many times Byron about Stephen jger and he usually does not perform so like take this as however you want to take this answer with it Jagger’s not necessarily the most consistent but outside of the top
70 in my model in expected putting on any generic course on tour that’s an answer that you would expect he jumped to 38 e 37th sorry overall for me on similar courses so I if Stephen Jer can be a top 40 putter at this tournament yes now we’re having a different
Conversation where the ball striking can play yes dude and that’s the thing with him it’s always been the poter that’s just been letting him down the ball striking has been too lately or like you said it’s mainly been the put actually in Florida expensive for someone to
Break his cut streak what at the cognizant was that where he broke his cut streak yeah and then to go t44 miscut again it’s like okay are we is it a Florida issue is it has he lost his game a bit you know like has he lost his
Confidence I think it’s a Florida thing I think it’s a Florida thing too like I understand we’re dealing with very similar green complexes there which is kind of where the negative answer is although Florida versus Texas is still going to provide a different sort of a
Contextual feel to this but if you look at what joerger did during those three tournaments he gained 3.2 off the te at the cognizant he gained 2.6 or 2.8 off the te at the API 0.2 at uh the players the some of the approach numbers like he was average he pretty much
Either won two ten0 of a unit or lost a half of unit in all three of those appearances but inside the top 20 of my model for expected proximity at this course and then all of a sudden now you throw them into a a completely different
Region to where I’m hoping that if the putter can be even if you look Byron like when he pops with the putter he has the capabilities like that’s the one thing I like about him that he actually gained Strokes 4.2 at the Mexico open 3.4 at the Sony Open he
Gained three at the Windom 2.2 at the John Deere 2.8 at the rocket mortgage all those finishes when he did that is when he ended up putting together his you know top 15s in a lot of those spots so um if the putter is fine we’re
Looking at a top 15 sort of player if the Putter’s bad we’re going to have to work around that but I I I just think joerger is wildly underpriced every single week because of I guess this volatility that he does bring to the table with the putter yeah I think I
Might just go back to him for a top 40 Spencer plus 180 right now for a top 20 I’d probably buy it it at minus 120 or so for his top 40 rate it allows that putter to kind of give us a bit of [ __ ]
And still get away with the bet you know whereas if I were to go elsewhere with him I’d probably bet him like a top 10 you know I don’t know if I’d go anywhere else in between um I I’m very bullish on I’ve been so freaking bullish on this
Guy for so and he’s literally gone miscut t44 miscut like since I’ve gone all in I think I had like 50% of my lineups at the cognizant so crazy situations just brutal stuff so we’ll have to see what he can do moving on from him some interesting names Spencer
We got Doug gim who finally missed a missed a top 20 last week 20 20% Doug again finished t67 yeah um didn’t matter because all the other chalk also miss so like I I had 150 lineups go five for six at least like it was not a good week for me um
But I’ve also had a third of my lineups make it through you know like 48 lineups out of 150 so that’s just how I roll which is fun right that’s I think how you you typically play your DFS as well yeah yeah um so I’m I wasn’t going to
Play Doug gim at that ownership what are we doing with Doug gim this week I don’t know if he’s going to be as popular but I think still quiet what do you think he will get to I would probably say at this price what was he last week in the mid
Sevens potentially or was he like a six I think he was in the I want to say he was higher than you think he might have been in the eights but yeah okay well either way I think he’s probably going to be about 15% this week you know I
Think people might have SED off of that you know we out of the Florida situation but maybe they go maybe go back you know I think this this field isn’t necessarily the best in the world yeah he was what do you think he was 84 last
Week he’s 82 this week um a much worse gu yeah it is probably much ah it’s weird because it’s got Scotty but it doesn’t have those other bunch of jabronies that all miss the cut yeah I I think it’s a decent buyback spot for Aon Ry and Doug gim for this
Tournament yes um I’m curious to see where ownership lands on those two as I said I’m going to be very aggressive on Jagger but those were the three for me that I I like the best that Aaron Ry performance was strange thought that was a perfect course fit for him that’s I
I’m not a person that plays Aaron Ry he very rarely ever makes builds for me like my models always lower on him and he catapulted up into the top 15 play for me last week um it just was a disaster it didn’t work out and he was
One of my highest exposed golfers I had which I I avoided a lot of the chalk that was wrong but that was when you get as aggressive as I did with him unfortunately that’s going to just be the end of the day you got to shoot your
Shot Spence right like that’s the thing is if you avoiding all the chalk it’s going to be impossible you’re not going to make money because they the reason there’s chalk is because they’re the right play freaking Ry bro like all you got to go do is finish 36th that’s all we’re
Expecting you to do you know like do your thing I had him as my final leg in my farewell fiver parlay yeah which was at like 35 to one this week well I think you just had to beat like Scott Stallings or someone couldn’t do it and
Shot a disgusting opening round and he’s like round one stuff is typically very good you know like that’s his best round so just complete disaster there but I think it’ll be a good bounce back for him he’s so good Spencer out of the rough he’s like for a guy that doesn’t
Hit in the rough a lot he’s so good out the rough which to me at this golf course is is very penal what would you say a few comp courses are like for this like would you say a little bit of Tory Pines would you say a little bit of
Murfield Village would you say you know those like Bay Hill yeah maybe maybe more on the ladder there um I I think I think this is a challenging like this is an answer that I talked about in my article this week and it’s a a unique conversation to be
Had like let’s just take the players that every single year we go to TPC sag we play that and you get this change of it going from uh a couple months move there and you know all the changes that took into place from March vers or may
Versus March or whatever the exact uh change was there all of a sudden you go hear from November to March you get a completely different course so like I’m cautiously trying to compare this venue to what we’ve seen in the past because I don’t think it’s going to be quite the
Same tournament that we’ve gotten over the past three years of playing it there’s going to think you look at Tom do you’re always going to get that same around the green these runoff areas and everything of the extensive nature that he adds there that’s not going to go
Away but I just wonder what ends up taking place with the answers we keep going back to of the Wind and The overseed Bermuda and that’s really not something that we’re going to necessarily know until this course plays and um that’s what makes handicapping sometimes difficult is you’re projecting
Out things to where or you’re trying to extrapolate out data to where you have a feeling that it’s going to go one way but you always have to be cautious with it because if you overdo it all of a sudden you’re building a model that’s not even for the correct tournament so I
I I try to be very very very cautious in that and just talking about I saw Jim talk about Aaron ry’s numbers like my numbers for him are very similar I think I had him one second I’ll give you the exact totals off the T and um and I think either
Distance or accuracy this week is you got to have one or the other you can’t be like a mediocre of anything because not hitting it far into the rough is going to be a problem at this golf course you know you got to make sure once you’re in the rough you are
Fighting for pars and you know these runoff areas are going to cause you issues yeah he he’s 102nd for me in distance he’s fourth for driving accuracy depending on how long you run your numbers for those numbers will change to a 120 and a first or whatever
You end up going to but I think for me the thing that was most enticing is when I ran an expected total driving output he graded inside the top 20 um that’s usually what I’m looking for of a golfer to where you know it was the Cameron
Young answer of last week to where my model consistently likes him more on Club down courses so all of a sudden that inaccuracy that he has off the tea isn’t quite as inaccurate on these Club down courses and Cameron young was number one in my model for expected
Total driving and you don’t necessarily think that when you look at him because of the inaccuracy but I try to be very specific of the course that we’re playing so I like that rise distance even at a really long course like we’re getting this week didn’t hurt him in the
Output of the way that I ran it so um he hasn’t missed back-to-back Cuts I want to say since like the early parts of 2023 so wow um it’s usually a guy who bounces back after he gives you a poor performance and I don’t necessarily think like when
Things go south for a golfer they it’s hard to rebound from it sometimes times and uh I remember we were talking about your your little bet that you had on Thursday and Ry just never put the pieces together at any point during the entirety of that round and all of a
Sudden at the very end it just kept getting worse and worse and obviously when he goes out there on Friday he’s going to need something like miraculous to end up making the cut in that position and yeah we didn’t end up getting that and unfortunately it’s just
A miscut weekend but before that I he’s a golfer that was one of the safer players in my model I don’t want to get away from that here when I actually think like this is a very good course for him once again yeah I would say guys
That played last week that played well no matter what your game is would would potentially play well here again if you’ve got that grinder Scrappy mentality obviously a bit more distance helps out here a bit more but I think you know we’re getting a a very similar kind of mental approach from these
Golfers this week Spencer where you can say okay it’s going to be a grind fist we’re not going to go and try and knock a 10 foot and just make a bunch of birdies right it’s going to be difficult gol so really quickly too like what what
Sweet spot just said in the chat there um that’s kind of the point that I think you and I keep bringing up and that’s kind of why I think that 15 16 18 underpar is more where that’s going to go come into play than these 10 underpar tournaments that we’re getting the PGA
Tour they’re not even like trying to pretend that they’re making it difficult every single cont test has been easier than we’ve ever gotten during these events so um when you change the month and now all of a sudden there may not be that bite that you would necessarily
Expect here it worries me a little bit that even like inside of my model and I didn’t build it so hard course heavy there are certain factors in it that graded that way but I worry that even maybe I might have graded this in a sense that’s a little bit too difficult
For what we actually get I think I think the wind’s going to help out but you know I think we’re probably going to land up in the same general area if the wind blows if not because what the wind when the wind blows the course dries out
That’s the that’s going to be the massive defense have you seen an over under winning score no because I’ve been I’ve been enjoying betting those lately so I was keeping an eye out because I was going to I was expecting somewhere round about minus 12 so what would that
Be two 268 again this week is what I would probably imagine um it comes out whichever side usually it’s fandu I I’ll take a Pia in the meantime Spencer but go ahead and and chat to me about Jake nap um curious as to what your thoughts
On at this golf course my model likes Jake nap every single week there yeah I mean the outputs are I and I know you’ve been very aggressive with him also um I had him inside of the top 12 in pretty much all iterations of how I
Built my model I I I think there’s a little bit to be said here about we talked about this a lot with Eric Cole last season where markets didn’t necessarily respect Cole and he kept producing results over and over again and then the first second Cole
Gave any reason to show that he wasn’t producing results that he was just an underdog to the whole world like he was already an underdog but then all of a sudden they got aggressive with it they weren’t as high in their models as maybe
You and I were on a guy like Eric Cole I think there’s some of that with Jake knap I know the recent results maybe haven’t necessarily been those like Eric Cole sort of results that I’m talking about here with nap but even if you look specifically the the 57th at the
API that’s a that’s one hole he shot L one hole one one t cup PA five dude yeah yeah so I don’t want to really look into that and then I mean outside of that like yeah the 45th at the Players difficult cut it’s a made cut at a very
Volatile course I’m not going to look at that in a negative way for him so yeah I I thought nap was one of like the four players in that range I was probably most intrigued to want to see where the ownership landed because I do think that there’s playability with him just with
The metrics that I’m looking at like my model doesn’t I try to run things from a regression standpoint in a lot of these situations because I don’t want limited data to outweigh my model in the sense to where all of a sudden I have I’ll give a random example like a
Jacob Bridgeman ends up being number one in my model or a jake knp ends up being number one like I try to run as much regression as I can these spots and didn’t run any regression this week I kept things how it was just because I
Wanted to see who really were the names that popped and it’s very simple for me to go through and then try to run some backend regression on it to get rid of certain names like I don’t know what I’m going to do with Eric Barnes yet but my
Model is much higher on Eric Barnes that I assume should be the answer there but um we can talk about yeah the club down course I mean I think that that’s a good conversation to be had yeah so this is an interesting situation Wheezy World thanks for asking this question we these
Kind of questions you know they’re super simple to me and Spencer we just mention those kind of words as we go along if you’re just getting new if you’re getting into golf betting just watching golf for the first time these are all like nuances I couldn’t say the word um
Po ano po anoa or po p palum when I first doing started doing podcasts about this stuff you know the the nuances in golf is is kind of crazy so ask any dumb question you know we there are at some point I was asking the same thing so a
Club down course is a golf course that kind of typically requires you to not hit driver as much because Force layups yeah Force layups hitting a driver on a hole where there’s for instance a creek that runs across the the Fairway at 290 yards you know and you have to cover it
By 310 yards to to cover it just doesn’t make sense to dri so you’re going to hit a three iron or a three-wood shorter and and kind of go that route so you know there’s certain courses like Bay Hill that are not Club down courses you’re going to hit driver pretty much every
Time you stand on the T box whereas last week was a bit more positional making sure you get to the right points of dog legs and things like that right perfect so yeah pretty simple situation this week it’s full send with the driver for the most part especially
On these courses with like thick rough and and longer holes so we’ll be looking at guys there Jake’s fun man it would be so freaking funny if you stares down Scotty sheffa and kicks his ass on a Sunday imagine Jake nap becomes the guy you know like the he’s got that Smith
Vibe JY Spencer you know I’ve got a I love his game yes it’s fun it’s fun dude and he just needs a bit of confidence I mean he’s literally what three or four starts from a win you know like the guy needs to like recalibrate his life and
Just figure out what’s going on he’s been playing Great Golf so looking forward to seeing him do some good stuff going it going forward this week someone that’s been really disappointing to me is thoron and Allison gez dude I drafted him in my fantasy stuff Spence for the
Season long just hasn’t done it you know I think I played him in like 60% of my lineups at Mexico like went from that to like playing him in my like anti one and done Cesspool where I made zero dollars off him last week which is great you’re
Trying to not win money so it’s it’s bad you know not good for him but you seem to be the McKenzie Ed Whisperer Spencer $7,800 McKenzie U what kind of McKenzie use can we expect this week I I don’t have the same massive take one way or another there there are certain times
Inside of my model that it’s he’s going to be outside the top I’ve never seen a golfer like this Spencer where you faded the crap out of it literally killed him in Mexico and then you can just be like so on him when he plays well yeah I mean
It’s one of those things where it’s like I think my model has been very accurate on him I think he’s overpriced where he’s at right now so like if we’re talking about I think he’s 7,800 because of this recent run of he almost wins the valpar last week he’s going to come into
This course with a lot of course history I understand why people want to play him I don’t necessarily even have a problem with it I just think he’s overpriced because there’s a lot of that and he’s going to be over owned because of that reason too so for me that’s not a golfer
That I’m going to be playing um he’s a fringe top 50 sort of a player that when I ran it for safety became a fringe top 20 sort of a name that to me is more of like a cash game option than it would be a gpp play you have bad ownership you
Have negative trajectory in my model for upside those are the players that I normally will just like if they beat me in gpps they beat me in gpps so uh I don’t have a massive take though like that Hughes is gonna miss the cut or anything like I have on some of these
Weeks yeah no you’ve been incredible with him dude it’s like when I when I saw you fading him at Mexico and the guy’s missing like three foot par putts it’s like one of the best Putters on the pj2 I was like oh spener better games
Than that makes a ton of sense um okay Spence I’m I was kind of just scrolling through the course history yeah you know it’s only three years we can’t really tell if it’s that good of course history or not but there are not like just if
You kind of scroll from call it $88,500 all the way down there’s one one person with a top 10 in three years by the name of McKenzie use who’s less than $88,500 then you got to go all the way down to Joel Damon at $7,100 for back-to-back top 10 here so
There’s there’s names that are going to be very unowned in this range that in between those two guys we can chat about one or two in that range Spencer and then kind of kick out to Joel Damon and and tell me what your thoughts on him with potentially a
Revitalized he just needed full swing to come out so that he could show the people what he was dealing with and become even more famous and now level up from being a completely atrocious golfer to back to being good at golf again like do the full jel Damon Spectrum
There I think when we look at where ownership is gonna land people seem to be at least on Monday we’ll see where this Trends over the next couple days people are very heavy on the course history here and I think you kind of said it best there’s three tournaments
Even if you look at the dispersion of scoring between those three events they have been chaotic in expectation there was one year where almost 29% of The Strokes came came around the green that dipped into you know less than 20 the average run of that is about at like 19%
19 and a half 20% so um you haven’t necessarily gotten the same tournament year after year after year now we’re we keep going back to the same answer I don’t want to keep beating the the same answer over and over again into people’s heads but it’s like we do have it at a
Different time of the year we do have a different venue I think the ownership with guys like McKenzie Hughes guys like um I mean Alex SMY Joel Damon there’s so much ownership right now that’s projected to go into those names yeah would rather just let them beat me my
Model was much higher on Mark hubard Thomas dietry uh and I I’m kind of weird with D Tree there was weeks I’ve been fading him that hasn’t worked I haven’t really gotten him right it’s probably the opposite answer of Hughes like as Stout as my model has been on Tom or on
McKenzie Hughes in the past I think it’s been equally as bad on Thomas dietre so um I I don’t I don’t know if that’s a good or a bad thing here but my model liked him it liked Ben Griffin it liked KH Lee um yeah hubard down at 7,000 like
I I thought there were a lot of really intriguing names to consider there might be a couple more like a like an o yeah Silverman like there’s other names to consider in this $7,000 section but that that group for me is more where I’d rather go than to get stuck with the
Ownership freaking dri was the guy that beat Aaron Ry yeah in round one it was dietry so I love even more and I think and Thomas Di’s literally been broken the last little while and he made I think he made three twos on the par threes like just win com and made zero
Birdies on the par fives it was the most random round for me okay Spence so you kind of like those guys there in the sevens I don’t know I don’t mind Thomas diet off of those courses the the same situation with him is so apparent though
Man like avoid him at all cast on Sunday do not play Thomas D3 in Showdown on a Sunday please you know just got to hope he’s far enough up the leaderboard to kind of still cash that top 10 for you just by shooting losing Two Strokes to
The field on a Sunday and still taking care of business oky doie let’s get into this range Spencer where is Ryan Palmer there he is6200 if you take a look at what he’s been up to t26 year in a miscut in the past Ryan Palmer’s like Mr
Texas I think he’s from Texas and if you take a look at his like Valero and all of those courses the AT&T Byron Nelson like he plays really good golf down in Texas so I’ll be looking at him for sure freaking Stuart sink he shot he was
Leading the tournament like um I never watched any golf yesterday Spencer and I’m seeing like Stuart sing finished 33rd like wasn’t he like trying to win this tournament at some point last yesterday so I don’t know um we’ll have to wait and see what he gets up to I’ll
I’ll be going back to CT pan until the wheels fall off you know I mean he’s he’s mispriced in my opinion for what he’s been showing us recently till he hits another WD or a miscut I’ll I’ll be playing him and even even after that curious about your takes on cam champ
Who if you think about this kind of a golf course you know it kind of suits his bomber narrative you know he can absolutely launch it and play quite nicely at the Val Spar last week do we see a bit of are you you know like at
$6,400 Spen so looking for someone that can have some upside at a golf course like this I get the upside answer Byron because we’re now down into a range where you’re picking and choosing your spots of you’re finding one or two narratives of a player that you like and
You’re hoping that cam Champ’s distance all of a sudden can Propel him to maybe a little Greater Heights after what we saw at the valpar with him of finally showing some form again but I think the ownership I think he’s going to be a little bit of Po a little bit popular at
Least because of that I don’t know exactly where he lands but I’m never a cam champ guy like I don’t love him on these long par 70s even with the distance he graded outside the top 120 for me in my model 118th for expected Strokes gain total um the distance and
The expected total driving and I didn’t like him last week in in full transparency and full disclosure of it and he was great last week and the one thing last week is he was fourth for me and expected total driving for that course he’s seventh for me here so he
Does have a weapon that he can at least hold on to I just worry he’s 127th for me in weighted proximity I I just have too many red flags like I think that there are a lot of guys down in this section that have playability I
Think CT pan is one of them like I would rather play CT pan I would rather play Max geyerman I would rather play Chandler Phillips like I I think Chandler Phillips has like a lot of real deal to his game with it so um if I was
Going to play somebody who’s popular I’d probably rather play Andrew not probably I would rather play Andrew Novak I don’t want to like make it like it’s close like my model really likes Andrew Novak this week so um um no I guess you know I’m not like thrilled about cam champ
And I think if he’s going to be 4% owned I’m out you know I was just kind of thinking catching some lightning in a bottle there out of nowhere you know and I and just think about the long irons that he that’s his best range right like
He’s not a good wedge player this golf course you know not a lot of wedges going on so I’ll be looking at him there um all right rattle off a few other names since you got I think you’ve got some some confident options down here Spencer well confident might be an
Overstatement relatively confident like I think Nate Lashley if you’re shooting for upside at 6,000 possesses that sort of a nature to his game um I think Jacob Bridgeman this is a nice bounceback spot for him at 5,500 just a really weird Thursday where things were kind of going well and then
Every everything fell apart and uh kind of you know just put himself too far out of contention to actually get back into making the cup but thought Bridgeman was a value last week my model thinks he’s even more of a value now the stats didn’t necessarily decline for him in
Any sort of the sense there so you know I think like the Bridgeman geyerman CT pan I think you’re you’re on to something with him um a lot of options like that is going to be where I’m trying to get a little bit unique and also create some salary savings I
Think Nate Lashley you got to know what you’re getting with him it’s a boomer bust option to where when he pops it’s like a top 10 and when he doesn’t he ends up missing the cut so badly yeah badly misses the cut but I I think I’m
Fine with that with the price tag we’re paying there but I mean Dylan woo Chan Kim Carson young um there’s there’s a like you already mentioned Ben Silverman but Ben Silverman like there’s a lot of names down in this section that I think do have playability to them and and have
Genuine top 1520 upside in this tournament Absolut well especially Nate Lashley the guy’s either t-13 in or missing the cut like that’s just that’s like making a decision and calling it good you know easy peasy situation there um all right I’ll throw a few names out there Spence Kevin Dy
$5,800 he’s he’s got tons of length off the tea I don’t know you know if I’m gonna lean into my model too sorry he has tons of upside in my model also yeah and he’s 38th in Mexico 45th last week you know that’s not too shabby Parker
CTI guys just refused to like price this guy correct I don’t know what he’s doing in the fives you know I mean what we got a 67th last week 47th at the Cog 24th at Mexico that’s three made Cuts in a row delightful to see that from him some
Other names I kind of mentioned last week was Tom Whitney he’s one of my favorite under the radar guys I think he’s like a Navy or an army guy and he he made the cut last week at the valpar another corn fairy T dude aleandro tosy refuses to put three rounds at least
Three rounds of good golf together it’s usually two and a half the other one and a half to one are nightmarish rounds of golf like this guy is he is a blow up like a ticking Time Bomb for sure someone I don’t mind at all those spener
Rafael Campos to me I think he’s one of the most underrated corn fairy tour players the guy can strike the crap out it he made a Hing one obviously at the cognis or or the Mexico hasn’t have any opportunities and I think this golf course suits his game
So give me rapael Campos is one of my last few guys in over here there are I mean I’ll name a handful of these guys I mean some have more upside than others some will be a little bit safer than others but when I just compare My
Overall rank compared to what the market on DraftKings is pricing these players uh Campos Bridgeman Kevin Chapel Brandon Yu Austin cook Nate Lashley Mack Meisner Max geyerman you mentioned Whitney um those are the like top seven or eight best values that I have on the board for where they’re priced compared to where
My model thought they should have been priced so like when I’m giving that answer of I think that this bottom range has a lot of playability down there it’s that group of names and when you look at my model it’s very easy to just make a
Copy of it and all you have to do is just go to DK versus Rank and you’re able to compare it to your ranks when you put the weights into there and it’ll give you that same answer to figure out where your some of your best values are
On the board but um that’s that’s kind of that’s kind of like all those names there I think the playability that they possess is a lot better than the price tag that we’re seeing right now yeah totally agree and I’ll throw in Sam Bennett who hasn’t shown luck he’s
Playing any golf lately so I’ll throw that in as one final name you got to take a shot at These Guys these are the guys that need to finish 10th for you you or eighth or or God forbid fifth you know like that’s how you win these gpps
When someone that’s 1% owned like a Sam Ben at parti takes care of business for you so we’ll wait and see what they get up to Spencer what’s uh what’s going on this week man I know you mentioned did you mention who you bet for those 30021
Bombs uh so my my exact card is I took Doug gim at 80 to1 maybe there’s a lack of upside there I still think this is a nice bounce back yeah by an opportunity here at 80 to1 took Nate Lashley at 250 to1 like to me this feels like one of
Those spots where Lashley really does have win Equity I know like it doesn’t seem like it on the surface and he may miss the cut and it’s going to be one of those situations where he’s in dead last after day one and I understand that that’s a possibility but I’m shooting
For the upside there took Andrew Novak at 175 to one I just think the form that he’s bringing in is a much better goal for them should be down in that range geyerman at 250 my model really liked him was inside the top 20 actually in
Every single iteration of how I ran it and uh that was an intriguing return took Bridgeman at 300 and then I am a sucker I cannot stop betting Stephen joerger Stephen jger at 50 I wouldn’t be surprised if that drifted maybe a little bit higher because I I don’t think that
That’s there are some numbers Byron where there’s the potential to move a price when things get released I think everybody’s so done with the joerger game and hearing you talk about joerger that that number is not getting moved anytime soon hey dude I it’s those three tournaments that’s if we just forget
About them he should not be 50 to one if you take those three tournaments away if you ask me so I’ll be going back to the well there with you Spencer probably betting him T20 t40 whatever they let us do there so um yet to bet wiela Taurus
At 2,000 plus 2000 I have a see theala 22 to1 I don’t know if if I’m going to retire from golf betting in general this week I just don’t feel like I’m invest it whatsoever for some reason but it’s probably going to be one of the better weeks ever Spencer that’s just
Usually how it goes you know like you don’t give a [ __ ] and all of a sudden everything go along just fine so um I’ll call it will out taures 20 to1 let’s go we we’re in the mood those are my two bets Willie Z SI theala two20 dogs let’s
Rock and roll and aren’t they in that FootJoy ad together and they playing down in Texas now yeah maybe I’m gonna have to to take that a little further um in my photoshopping Endeavors so um all right Spence tell the people what’s cooking for the rest of the week and
Where they can find you doing everything and anything under the golf Sun yeah lot of content that we’re going to be releasing this week at Roto baller Byron so you can find me on Twitter at tof sports uh I will be talking about this tournament by my Vegas report will be
Out Tuesday talking about it from a betting perspective my DraftKings article released earlier today a lot of the players we talked about you can actually go in this week can get an image of every single player in this field and where I have them ranks so a
Lot of Deep dive information in this piece this week if you want to just Traverse through that article see where I have and then obviously yes for free there obviously if you want to get some of the more in-depth personal situations of exactly how I weighed them which is
Still has the weights in there you’ll get the top 10 of each one of the categories I ran but if you want to weigh the the data yourself you can jump in uh we have a great premium subscription you’re model Byron my model all the premium content that we’re very
Proud of over on the website and uh you know between us both the Joe’s Ian Matt Miller we really this that’s you know this is what’s shocking about like breakups in life is where I have now moved on and become a Windam Clark like whether Windham Clark he’s on my card
Not on my card just a lot of love for Windam Clark and uh Jay day right Mal bu to the side I think what upset me the most because like I was already like going in that range to kind of move away from Jason day and then when Clark won
It just moved me fully away but malbon not responding to me as I was trying to get sponsorship from them whether it be for this show or elsewhere and just completely ignoring every single message that I sent them that was it like that was the last straw for me it was you
Know J day we’ve had a good run for the last 10 years I wish you nothing but the best it’s just going to have to be without me now on it that that’s a scary proposition SP I’m not sure who was going to be better off so hopefully you
Get the better end of that breakup you already seem to have had a really good rebound my model does like him this week though I I will like just give like a positive I don’t want to make this sound that this is not necessarily a Jason day
Situation he’s inside of the top 10 for me in all ways IR ran he was inside the top five for safety which I don’t know if you think safety and Jason day with that back but you know that’s a that’s a different that’s a different discussion
To be had there’s not necess I don’t know what’s down in Houston necessarily but there’s not amusement parks that I know of no I think he’ probably just take his family back around the TPC Bunny Ranch there Byron nson just show them remember this this this before I
Went and absolutely sucked it up at the PJ Championship because I need like 20 days prep to win a tournament but um anyway anyway kind of getting off a tangent there Spencer all still love for Jay day though um yeah you know it’s a sweet spot I Windam Clark is second in
My model also there so it’s a better Windham Clark performance with that but uh I think there is a lot to like about Jason day I don’t know like I agree I don’t know what there exactly is to do out there in in Texas maybe he can go
Chill with some of those like Houston rappers Chamillionaire or little flip or one of those guys he needs some he needs a bit more Swagger to get him over the end there so we’ll if you see Jason day hitting hitting up a a luxury yacht with some some uh underknown rapper you know
You took the advice of my good friend Spen AA and went and took advantage of some Texas Lifestyle Changes awesome stuff folks thank you all for tuning in this is the RO balla PGA show for the Texas Children’s Houston open which is a mouthful that I manag to get right every
Single time the show so hit the like button if not for that and um don’t be shy to subscribe to the show if you’re in the mood for that kind of stuff every single week catch me at the model Maniac on X um I’ll be providing all my stuff
For you guys at r b this week too um Spen is got his shows going on for the rest of the week I’ve got mine catch us at our respective spots over there we’ll catch you guys next week for the Valero and then I think that is going to be the
Master’s week thereafter if I have got my calendar correct so it’s almost the Master’s week because the Master’s week literally starts a Thursday after the Valero begins yeah it’s just people like releasing articles and stuff like crazy that day so awesome stuff folks thank you for tuning in thanks daro for being
In the chat there and everyone else that kind of popped in there Wheezy knows now what a club down course is so if if you didn’t learn anything today that’s what you did learn so we’ll catch you guys next Monday at 9:30 Eastern every single Monday after preferred lines on R to
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Great show guys