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It’s Gil Alexander it’s Kelly bidin live from bar Canada at the day was happening not much man we got we will rock you uh welcoming Us in this morning all right all right right you know what you’re going to have to do tonight you’re going
To have to call me and remind me that it’s not Friday today cuz I did every year this happens I I have to I’ve reminded myself multiple times yesterday that this morning is not Friday morning because it feels like Friday morning cuz of March Madness it does it does I
Always try to I always try to schedule like one thing or something on Thursday of this Thursday just to to just to avoid that feeling yeah like I got one other thing I got to do today after the show what’s that share with us no doctor’s point oh okay great great
Scheduling on your part by the way nicely done uh by the way if you have not filled out if you have not submitted your bracket yet and I know you know you know who you are uh because there’s still a little over two hours here before the first tip uh between
Mississippi State Michigan State uh wait a half an hour because Dr Bob is going to join and he will go through uh what the underp picked teams are in terms of filling out your brackets the idea the bigger the pool the more contrarian you
Ought to be uh and he has access to the big uh pool numbers and he will try to optimize your bracket if you have not submitted it yet one last person you got to listen to uh because before that Zack Cohen will have his college basketball
Plays as well I we’ll have crack a little later on the show and I got to tell you what my survivor Play is today we’re going to get to that momentarily M okay um real quick because the Dodgers now are on Pace to go one and one just
Want to get this out of the way Kelly uh Dodgers lose to the Padres here uh Shi one of five in this ball game uh in case you missed it the other big story yesterday and we’ll get into this a little uh later perhaps or you know what
Maybe not because it’s March Madness but uh we do have to mention that uh if you missed it if you’re trapped under heavy object yesterday Dodgers interpreter for sh Otani fired uh after questions surrounding at least $4.5 million in wire transfer sent from otani’s bank account to a bookmaking
Operation set off a series of events epe mizuhara longtime friend and interpreter for Otani incurred the gambling debts to a Southern California bookmaking operation that is under federal investigation that was from multiple sources As Told to ESPN how he came to lose his job started with reporters asking questions about the wire
Transfers uh mizuhara had a contract with the uh Angels when Otani played there in sign with the Dodgers this offseason he confirmed to ESPN he’s been paid between 300,000 $500,000 annually and the issue with this story is that as Dallas Braden former ball player Dallas Braden uh pointed out the rough timeline Otani
Went on record with the SPN stating uh that he transferred 4 and a half million himself to the bookmaker on behalf of his interpreter epe mizuhara then a spokesperson for Otani uh delivered epe to ESPN and said here talk to him uh and hee says Otani never bet and felt bad
For him Miss mhara and paid off his debt mizar’s debt so he’d never do it again then the spokesperson for Otani says wait a minute uh now that I’ve heard this uh interview uh he’s lying The Interpreter after he gave his 90-minute statement to ESPN otani’s lawyers claimed a massive theft quote unquote
And then epe then said that Otani had zero knowledge of his debt or the gambling happen in general that about right so it’s just there’s all these you know just the stories are changing and they’re evolving and a legal mess sure yeah let’s just put it this way this
Doesn’t sound good yeah it doesn’t sound good it doesn’t sound good I mean if if you kind of believe the if you believe the surface story this it’s kind of sad if you believe the surface story of this guy who you know The Interpreter who you always see with Otani who’s been with
Him since he’s gotten into the majors who you know is basically a close friend personal assistant interpreter all combined into one okay man you got like you went and lost a ton of money and then Show’s going to cover four half billion dollar worth of your debts what
A dude so if you believe that story you’re right it’s how could you mess up that kush gig yeah and boy you know what a great friend Otani is to you right or if you believe the other side of this which is ain’t none of that true right
Exactly and oh what a friend he is oh what a friend he is to Otani on the flip side um covering up all that time so we’ll see um see how that plays out yep and and and sports betting is viewed differently now than it was back
In the Pete Rose days so it’s not an equivalent um and again there’s no allegation that there’s baseball bets here either so um let’s put it this way the big difference and I’ll end it on this the big difference is while baseball did everything back then to
Just shun Pete Rose you would think they would take an opposite tact here of having this go away as quickly as humanly possible completely agree yeah so I don’t know um okay I don’t know if you know this March Madness 2 hours away this is fantastic and so I have famously
Said uh I I don’t do brackets anymore uh I am a survivor guy and I believe it is the most fun thing NCAA Survivor as great as NFL Survivor is NCAA tournament Survivor is the greatest thing ever because it’s multi-dimensional not only is it uh you know again contrasted with
The NFL NFL 20 team if you do the circle one which has a Thanksgiving and Christmas Quirk that’s a 20 team moneyline parlay where you can’t pick the same team twice it’s linear One Direction uh this is multi-dimensional It’s chess because not only do you have to survive
On a daily basis with one team but you also have to make sure that you have teams remaining once we get down the stretch El leite8 final four and championship game um because otherwise you’ll be limited that way eliminated that way so now let me just say this The
Quirk to my Survivor the Survivor that I’m in uh maximum three entries maximum three entries but here’s the key you are allowed one Buy in one Reby in on each of them so even if I get knocked out today I’m allowed to Reby um so what does that mean that one
One time only by the way everybody gets this uh this allowance so the question is do I just like with with NFL Survivor do I pick a different team in each of my three entries do I go all in on one well with the Reby I think I’m going to shove
With one team and the problem with you know unlike my tennis picks which we’re about to do here um where I’m by myself locked into my numbers and here are my picks and it’s very mechanical for me uh this is more like okay let me hear what
Everybody else has to say I did a podcast with Todd and will beating the book megapod podcast with Todd and will then I uh of course we had Peter keing and Jordan brener on yesterday um and you know like taking all this information and the issue is or at least
With all this anecdotally that I took in on this show there’s not really a consent on any update oh by the the other big rule in the contest that I need to talk about is you are the tiebreaker is upset incentivized that’s hilar okay it’s funny it’s funny you
Just said that CU we’re going to get to my bets in a bit that I’ve made not many dogs so you’re incentivized because in the end if you’re tied if you’re picking the 13s and the 12 and your numbers add up to to more you’ll be the winner
Um I ended up with because there was no consensus between Todd will and Jordan brener and Peter keing and everybody else who we had on the show because for every mckines state right right yes there was people saying yeah but it’s still Gonzaga yeah and for every you
Know for every NC State having come off the ACC tournament just to use another example you know you had Todd and will both no I like Texas Tech right yeah I ended up with Colorado State Over Texas okay and I’m shoving on Colorado State in all three cuz I don’t think Texas is
Very good I still think you’re playing it right though it’s still a double digit SE Colorado State I’ll be at a 10 and so and again I have the rebot so the the pressure is not such that it would eliminate me entirely so I’m going all
In on Colorado State today that is my Survivor play um and again I don’t feel like Colorado state is going to advance deep into the one more time it’s four entries and you’re three three and you’re pushing you’re shoving all three shoving Colorado State because I do get
A re if I lose today I’m still not eliminated okay all right cool I couldn’t remember if you told me you had three or four and you were saving one go three Colorado State okay all right I like it I like it it’s kind of funny you
Say that though I’m just going to go to my bets look College I I bet lightly if you’ve listened to this show you know this is not my forte this is fun gambling action during the NCA tournament I’ll get involved live like you will too but I wanted to put
These in pregame what’s the one Trend here on the game betat skill not any dogs not a sing by the way that is what you said there is a little voice in my head cuz what have we talked about all week not only this show but every show
In the universe every show on this network every show in the sports betting Universe Sports media universe talks about all the upsets right right there’s been a little voice in my head all week that said what if this is the year where there ain’t much of that so me too and I
But I hope and I hope we’re right Gil but no knowing that it’s called March Madness and uh that doesn’t happen happen all the time I’m pretty terrified of it so real quick today uh I just I bet BYU late seven and a half with them
I bet that on the opener uh Drake moneyline played that and then Friday I’ve got FAU Baylor Auburn TC Futures FAU horrible number bet a while ago Tennessee and Auburn just bet yesterday decided to add those I should mention I do have my Futures and you
Know throw them in the trash already but I had uh I had uh BYU at 100 to1 to win it all yes they’re in the tournament you never know uh I have Alabama to win at all yes they’re in the tournament you never know 60 to one um I don’t expect
Either of those to win to make the final four I these These are you know Yukon certainly live at plus 180 got that in February early February and then BYU at 12 to one to make the final four let’s just put it this way stranger things
Have happened I I be well Al at least all your numbers are better than what they are now oh yes that for sure I pulled up some of those Futures yesterday fa is like 200 to one places I’m like cool I got 75 to one
Let’s go well FAU is a great example we had Jim Roode on yesterday so the three man Weavers so Jim reports to us that both of the other guys love FAU in their opener and I’m like isn’t that aren’t they a year late on FAU he’s like I
Think so right so it’s like even those three guys can’t get together on just the outcome of that one game let alone some of these others I me that was what so they had I was listening to their pot so it’s Matt Matt Matt is what like he
Was last year is very is heavy on FAU and thinks that they can kind of recapture what they had last year since it’s a lot of the same pieces Kai Kai went along with it I think they both had them upsetting than Yukon but remember J with Jim we talked to yester yesterday
He only he had Yukon beating FAU in the second round but then losing Los after that in the sweet 16 to alberg which is not nearly as controversial yeah um man should it’s going to be so much fun uh we’ll talk more college hoops on the
Other side with Zach Cohen Dr Bob as well Zack with some tennis plays I have my tennis plays at the top on the other side as well Kelly’s got some NBA plays or at least one all of that more March Madness it’s coming numbers game Visa the sports betting Network
A numbers game on vent the sports betting Network don’t forget to get your vent annual subscription for $199 $199 daily Best Bets betting splits March Mania Betting Guide you got to use promo code though sign up today von.com subscribe with that $199 subscription only if you use promo code a& promo code
A like a numbers game if you want to find anything that Zach Coen writes about sports betting you got to have that promo code get on the website now check it all out absolutely right check it out vn.com subscribe Gil Alexander that’s the voice of Kelly bin producer number nine so
Much more than a producer uh before we get to Zach can I uh do my tennis picks here um here’s the Dilly uh second part of the sunshine double Indian Wells being the first Miami open being the second uh yesterday we went two in one
On the show uh terrible play by me on Angeli Kerber to start the day she didn’t show up against Sloan Stevens um but Sloan always gets me like she’s that she’s the one who like the she bucks the numbers and she just performs however she performs on a daily basis but then
Can I go a real quick post show content yesterday so so I spent a solid 10 to 12 minutes sorry Zach we’ll get to you one sec I spent a sorry uh 10 uh a solid 10 to 12 minutes watching the the great keepers of the sigma Derby like clean it
And like get it all reset I was so fascinated by it I’m like live texting Gil what I’m watching yeah um I wasn’t allowed to take a picture of it but I was like live I was talking to these guys it was beyond fascinating I get to
My car downstairs Gil’s still in his car I thought he had left like 20 minutes ago he’s in his car sweating out this tennis match though well that one wasn’t much of a sweat but we came back and then and hit uh Nadia poosa as a plus
Plus 195 uh dog yesterday against ashin Krueger that was a straight set win so that more than made up for that and then Katie volet although she did wobble in the second set against Sophia Ken and she got it done in three so two and one
And a and a nice winning day yesterday I got four today all on the women’s side it’s not like I’m not hand I am handicapping the men’s side I just don’t like anything uh but on the women’s side I got four and they’re all slight dogs
At least when I put them in at vent.com slpi last night remember all show hosts and guests every sport all the picks at vent.com picks for subscribers I got Julia putina at plus 174 over Luda samsonova who boy I she just is fade material to me so often and I think
Putina uh is the player at plus 174 and her raw numbers are better than samsonova quite frankly six and three months uh Deon par is the first one that goes is in less than an hour de how many times have we played her plus 137 against batri Hadad Hadad Maya who is
Not in her best form uh Dian Schneider it’s pronounced Schneider although it’s spelled schneer uh she’s a slight I got her a slight dog I’m checking the prices right now to see if these are still in Pocket here against MD Keys Matty Keys has not been good uh Schneider took down
Venus Williams Madison Keys is a slight step up but not much of a step up these days Schnider should not be a dog or even a short favorite here and then uwan uh plus 167 against Maria sakur I know it she just got to the finals in Indian
Welles but yuan is a Steely player with really good numbers and she should not be plus 167 so those are the plays putina par Schneider Yan Zack Cohen joins us everybody vent.com senior writer who writes about every sport under the sun he joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line how you
Doing Zach doing well we have we have the same play on one of them I have Diana Schneider as well sympatico is that a good thing Zach when you and I are on the same one how have we done have you documented this when we’re on the same one it’s been
Happening actually quite a bit yesterday I got burned by Kerber as well um but I won on volets I had a decent day yesterday I had Matteo araldi um but yeah so hopefully this one’s good I mean Keys is just you just said Sam of as you
Know fade material I think Keys is as well she’s only played two matches since October uh really looked bad in the one win and then you know the lost to prens thought I thought was was really terrible she just couldn’t get the ball over the net so I do think Schneider who
Has won you know 11 of the 16 matches she’s played this year comes in with good form but more importantly comes in you know with just more match play I think it’s a really good you know really good match up for her yeah I’m looking at these prices they’re all still in
Pocket Schneider is minus 104 is now I’d still play it at that number and I assume you would as well Zack okay definitely let’s Crescendo to college basketball do you have anything NBA I have one NBA pick although I’ve been horrible in the NBA lately talking about firing my translator uh you know
I’ve got uh Pelicans minus three against the magic I uh I just think this is a match up between two teams that very good defensively both are top five in defensive efficiency but the Pelicans are you know 12th in the league in offense the magic are 24th uh New
Orleans comes into this game after two full days off they haven’t played since Monday magic played on Tuesday so the Pelicans have the rest advantage and there’s just a small Advantage for New Orleans in terms of the three-point line New Orleans can shoot the ball you know
Just a little bit better they’re about 38% this year they don’t take a lot of them but they do make them when they take them the magic can’t really shoot I think that that the Pelicans are going to exploit that here okay by the way uh and I caught your interpreter comment
There yes Kelly hardwood handicappers for life I’m in with you Zach Pelicans yes we Pelicans oh you guys match on that I’m back on New Orleans again today I think it’s like the fifth straight game I’m betting him uh this one you just laid it all out uh really well Zach
I’m just going to say when on this opening number it was like one and a half I know the magic have been really hot I’ve got the Pelicans just rated way way more than a four point four or five point difference between these two teams
Zach you are a Match Machine by the way did did you have another tennis play did I gloss over that I have I have two other tennis players don’t worry they’re on the website in case people miss them but I have Harold Mayo to beat Daniel altm uh it’s another one where I’m
Really just fading one of the players altm has lost six of his last seven matches lost his only two matches on the golden swing he’s a player that we expect things out of on Clay so the fact that he wasn’t able to win there kind of
Says a lot about his form right now he’s a player that I think you know kind of could be lacking in the serve he’s not very good from the Baseline right now Mayo is you know just a tough player that gets a lot of balls back has a
Little bit B of aggression when he needs it and I just think that he’s coming into this match playing pretty well he had to go through qualifiers to get here I kind of like that because this guy’s getting used to the courts and then I also took Dan Evans money line was about
Plus 120 against Lorenzo Sona which betting on Dan Evans as a roller coaster he’s 0 and3 against Sono in his career but I think that Evans who has been struggling this year his real issue has been his serve sonico’s break percentages at like 10% this year which
Is horrible so I think that Evans is going to get back on track with his serve I think that these courts they can you know they can play a little slow they can play a little windy it gets windy in South Beach you know it’s hot
Humid and Evans hits a lot of slice and makes players uncomfortable yeah Dan Evans when he was playing in DC last year was the greatest tennis player alive for one week uh by the way what he saying it hot in Miami uh kazow fainted on the court they had to stop the match
Yeah that was against Mayo too so he might not even B be in the main draw that’s right and bartini almost fainted yesterday in like 76 Dees God it just pulled up the weather not not that crazy not that bad but but yesterday I think it got to 90 these these athletes just
Fall like fainting on the court is it’s hard to watch all right uh college hoops let’s get to it March Madness round of 64 uh what do you got today maybe you have some for tomorrow as well I have two today I have Morehead State plus 12
Which I feel like everybody’s on I’m also on another one that everybody’s on but I do think Illinois comes into this you know after a big 10 Championship I think that there’s some let down you know material here I think that they’ll probably figure it out and maybe pull it
Out in the second half but I do think it’s a tough matchup Morehead State’s a top 10 team in terms of effective field goal percentage defense you know they slow the game down really you know to I think a top one of the slowest Paces in all of college basketball I believe top
20 and Illinois wants to play fast they want to launch a lot of Threes Morhead State defends the three-point line really well so I do think this is a really tough matchup for him and Morhead state has a guard in Riley Min who can score the basketball Illinois is not
Play defense so I think this is a matchup that it could get really dicey I think the def Aline I might be you know in a really close game at Halftime and probably win a close one he used the phrase score the basketball that’s a $40
Fine who do you think started that Jay bis who started that phrase score of the basketball yeah I to look into that numbers game investigation coming up on that we’ll get on it what’s your other one today Stanford plus eight and ID play that down to seven and a half and I
Do think I would sprinkle the money line on that I just think that the Vibes with The Jayhawks are really bad right now uh you know you lost mcculler I think the dick said that he’s going to play but it sounded like he’s playing because he
Doesn’t want to miss the game it doesn’t sound like he’s fully healthy and that’s a Kansas team that really struggled down the stretch and I think that Sanford is one of the more dangerous mid- major teams in the country I think that they could really shoot the basketball they
Can you know get up and down the floor you know make a you play kind of a weird game they play really fast and I just think this is the worst Kansas team we’ve seen in a while and I do think they’re probably going to go out here
You see Samford was another one that I considered for Survivor today obviously with Kansas’s uh injuries and famously being out but it they haven’t when they when they played against top level competition it did not go well for them so like I couldn’t quite and when I say
Did not go well I mean really did not go well so I uh I couldn’t pull the trigger on that what about tomorrow anything I have the over in Charleston and Alabama which I think is going to be one of the most fun games of the tournament I just think both of those
Teams play at a Lightning Fast Pace both of them shoot a ton of Threes I know we think of Alabama as the team that likes to run and Gun Charleston shoots more threes you know as part of their shot diet than any team in the league know
Any team in mid major so I do think this is a the game that’s going to be up and down both teams launching threes I think even if you do see you know five minutes early in the game where it’s lower in scoring just as to get used to the
Courts I still think it’s going to fly over it’s you know it’s a high number at 172 and a half but I still like it yeah it was higher it was 174 at one point at least when I saw it and it is by far the
Biggest total on the board in the round of 64 anything else college hoops wise before we get out of here 20 seconds or that that covers it no I mean I guess I’ll my I’ll put my one hot take out there is I don’t think that people are
Talking high enough about Duke right now I know that the season was a little up and down but you know I like what you do when you talk about you know the the factors that make a championship team I think Duke is right outside of that uh they’re really good team offensively and
Defensively and I kind of think that when you get a team like that a four seed or so where no one’s talking about them they’re dangerous and I think that they have one of the most talented back courts in the country there’s no D no doubt there’s been very little buzz on
Duke that’s for sure thank you Zach appreciate it Dr Bob is next a numbers game on VN the sports betting Network get ready to dominate the brackets turn your picks into profits this tournament with the vent Pro March Mania Betting Guide inside this guide you’ll find expert strategies Insider tips and in-depth analysis
That’ll give you the edge you need to outshine the competition from Underdog upsets to Championship predictions the vent Pro betting guy will have brackets from hosting experts and CAA tournament betting Trends and of course Best Bets for every round of the tournament don’t miss out on this gamechanging resource
It’s not too late download the be and pro March Mania Betting Guide today at von.com Madness that’s vs.com Madness it’s Gil Alexander it’s Kelly bidin live from bar Canada at the D Kelly would you say more people Milling about uh because we do this show from 7:00 to 9:00 a.m. Pacific Daily
More people Milling about on the morning of March Madness than any other day of the year yes absolutely we’re filling up quick Matt I don’t know if you can if you can pan that camera at all but we’ve got uh everybody’s staking their claim it’s like it’s like the their land right
Like you got gotta grab the table for the day oh that’s what’s happening that’s I think that’s what’s going on CU we’ve got like a bunch of bunch of one man onean tables going on right now love it uh and I love that we have this gentleman on the show and again I
Started the show by saying if you have not submitted your bracket yet wait till we talk to Dr Bob his name is Bob stole he goes by Dr Bob you can follow him on Twitter at drbob sports that’s Dr Bob Sports and of course drbob sports.com courtesy the progressive guest line Bob
Joins us now how you doing Bob what’s happening I’m doing all right didn’t get a lot of sleep on Sunday Monday Tuesday but um I caught up yesterday a little bit fun it’s fun work yeah let me just ask you this if I could like as as long
As you’ve been doing this does does a little part of does a little boy come out of you when March Madness begins or are you such a robot at this point doing what you do with Mod that you don’t feel it anymore with this event yeah I don’t
I used to I mean I’d be working during the day on Sunday selection Sunday doing my you know trying to do my ratings on certain on teams as I go along and then the selection show would come on and I’d flip it over and I’d be looking at the
Selection show and getting all fired up about matchups and a couple years ago I just kind of stopped doing that I’m like well that’s that sort of distracts me from doing the work I need to do so today this year I actually got done a day earlier because I didn’t watch any
TV you know I didn’t watch any brackets or selection shows or or bracket analysis I didn’t watch anything on TV and I was able to get my work done a day earlier than normal so I got my brackets out to and my simulation out on Tuesday instead of Wednesday so that helped a
Lot of lot of people so no not as excited as I used to be okay well that said before we get to the bracket talk macro wise Let’s uh let’s how how about we talk about a play today what do you like today that’s still available uh you know Kansas is- 7 Now
Kevin mcculler is out uh for Kansas second best player on Kansas Dickinson might not be 100% but I think he’ll he’ll be fairly close to it for for The Jayhawks they’re going up against a Samford team that likes to run and and Tempo and and that’s fine that runand
Gun style that sford uses they’re one of the fastest teams in the nation it works great when they’re playing the weaker teams from the Southern Conference but they faced two teams from that were better than then this year and they lost by 53 points to Purdue and by 10 points
At VCU and VCU is not nearly as good as Kansas um so that that fast-paced tends to work against teams when they’re playing better teams I think Kansas is going to love to get up and down the floor they they’re faster than normal team anyway and I think they’ll be
Really focused with mcculler out I think that I think that the team is more likely to say hey one of our best players that we really got to buckle down and so they’re more likely to be focused against a lower seated team than they might otherwise
Also Bill self’s team coming off a loss tends to be really good historically since he’s been at Kansas they’re 5327 and3 as a favored off a loss against the spread 53 27 and3 against the spread Kansas favored off a loss including six And1 in the NCA tournament so I think
Kansas is going to be really focused mcculler is worth a couple points and I put that in my ratings but I still favor uh the j-hawks by 9.8 points here with the fast pace included in that projection so I think it’s a good bet at up to minus 8
Yeah I was just talking about this with Samford and their performance against better teams uh on the other side of the break just before you and uh that is part of the reason why I could not take them in Survivor I just thought it was too trendy and and you have uh
Corroborated that nicely all right let’s talk about the brackets in general so let’s couch this by saying that the folks that are in that still haven’t submitted and are in these big pools this doesn’t apply to like the guys are doing it with uh you know their nine
Friends but if you’re in bigger pools 100 thousand however many are in there uh the incentive the bigger the pool the more risky you want to get with some of your plays the more upset-minded you want to get you got to be diverse in other words you got to you got to
Differentiate yourself from the pack and so yeah yeah go ahead Bob you take it from there no you go I say I mean yeah basically what you want to do is inject some variance with value so you want to inject some some teams that are maybe
Off the radar or you know upset picks to get to the final four or something like that but that have value versus what everyone else might be picking Yukon is easily the best team in the tournament they are better than they were last year because now they got everybody healthy
When everybody’s playing they had a lot of injuries during the season and when everybody’s playing they are really really good normally you do not find value with really high speeds this year comparing my simulation to the national uh pools you know who’s picking who Etc I’m finding value on on Connecticut a
Little bit now I mean 30% of the people are picking Connecticut to win and I have them at 34% normally the higher seeds are like negative five or 10% below what the Public’s picking them and you you kind of need to steer clear um but Houston also has a little bit of I
Think PE people you know with Houston going out earlier than people thought in recent years I think they’ve got a little bit of a stigma and people are kind of avoiding them but I give Houston about an 18% chance to to win it all and they’re being picked around 12 to 13% by
The public so Houston could be a good alternative to Connecticut but if you’re going to take Connecticut you need to inject some value somewhere else um teams like Arizona Tennessee Baylor legitimate chances to make the final four so you can put some of those in
There but the one that I think has the the biggest value to make the final four is St Mary’s I give them a 13.8% chance to make the final four the public is only picking the Gale of 2.5% to make the final four so if you’re in a huge pool
And you could have Connecticut going to your final four but if you want to avoid the masses and want to take someone else or you can take Connecticut fine I would I did in my pool but it took St Mary’s to make the final four as something to
Differentiate yourself from the 30% of the people that are taking Connecticut so you have to think about stuff like that if you really want to avoid Connecticut then Auburn who they probably face in the Tweet 16 would be a legitimate pick because Auburn is a legitimately good team the prom is
They’re facing Connecticut but if they beat Connecticut they’ve got a a good road to the final four and could easily win it so if you really want to go Rogue and be amongst very few having Auburn to win at all that could be something you
Want to do in a huge pool uh to give yourself a you know kind of a clear Lane if they happen to get back dog so it’s not unreasonable and once they do that Auburn really has the makeup of a team that could that could win at all if they can get by
Connecticut so there’s some things to think about I I hope if you have again if you’re one of the those who have not submitted their bracket there’s a bunch we still have an hour and a half to go here before tip off of marsh Madness um that that is really something you inject
Into your pool if you’re in a in a large one uh let’s split the difference last thing here Bob because you mentioned um Championship you mentioned final four with st Mar’s you mentioned sweet 16 um with auburn as well getting to the Elite 8 is there any other teams in
There um beyond the ones you just mentioned that might be a differentiator for folks yeah first of all for the elite eight there’s certain teams you avoid the biggest negative value teams according to my simulation would be North Carolina Kentucky and Iowa State now Iowa State mostly because you know
They’re I don’t know I just funny I thought Iowa state would be one of the top five or six teams in my rankings and they end up like eighth or ninth so really surprised me when I when I dialed it in but North Carolina Kentucky and Iowa state have the most negative value
To make the elite eight are reasonable and let’s define that negative meaning go ahead yeah well for for instance like um you know North Carolina for instance to make the Elite 8 I give them a 35% chance that’s great but 71% of the public yeah are picking
North Carolina to make the elite eight that’s negative 36% value Kentucky I give them 23% chance and the Public’s picking them at 47% it’s a huge difference so if you want to you know stay away from teams that the public is picking more than they’re worthy uh North Carolina Kentucky and Ohio State
Are the three most for the Elite 8 section and teams that you could sneak in there that have positive value to make the Elite 8 are teams like TCU Michigan state Wisconsin and Marquette now Co knowly going to play and be healthy for Marquette so those are teams
That that have positive value to make you lead eight TC your audio cut out there so let me just repeat TCU Michigan state Wisconsin and Marquette those are the four yeah Wisconsin and Marquette were the four that had value for the elite eight to make the elite eight okay
Bob beautiful anything tomorrow you wanted to share with us real quick that you might have a play on before we go 30 seconds no I’m still I’m still working on some stuff for tomorrow so if you want to have me back on again perhaps I can uh roll one out tomorrow well why
Don’t we do that by the way then we we’ll close with this do you play brackets do you play Survivor what do you do personally Bob anything yeah I do brackets I I have a it’s not a huge pool I’m Friends Pool for you know maybe there’s three 200 300 people in or
Something like that I’ve won it a couple times um so uh yeah I just it’s just for track talk and stuff I’m not in a huge major pool anywhere all right I like it Bob’s like 200 300 people I won it a couple times no big deal that’s Bob Bob
Let’s have you back on tomorrow really appreciate it man all right buddy the great Dr Bob drbob Sports drbob sports.com drr Bob Sports on Twitter courtesy again of the progressive guest line crack is here Kelly and I we’re going to do a draft are we going to do
An NCAA tournament draft you we’re going to do it head tohe head man Kelly that’s coming up numbers game V in these Sports Network ladies and gentlemen unscripted with the crackman Bill [Applause] Krackenberger Billy hey good morning what’s happening how you guys doing all right doing very well boy it’s in the air it is look at this look at this crowd look at this crowd here we never have a crowd this getting their seats this early I was just over at Circa I
Did the uh walk from there and uh it’s just like the Calm before the storm nobody was really in there when Bill when Bill krackenberger Walks from Circa yeah to the D how many times do you get stopped um I think I stopped once how’d
You know that on Fremont yeah right I we saw we saw you shaking hands and and kissing babies uh before pressing the flesh three months a guy um walked out right out the door of the Four Queens I don’t know like he’s like wait he goes
Where are you going I like Hi how are you yeah um look at I mean nobody’s there no yeah it is a little it’s a little wild at this time oh yeah this is it feels great to be alive this is what it’s all about this the greatest thing
Will and I were talking about this uh the other day it’s like no matter how will was saying it it wasn’t just me uh no matter how old we get right so we’re all we’re all betters and we tend to as we get older even if we weren’t betters
Right the older you get you tend to get more jaded right your your childhood love for teams um tends to dissipate over time for any number of reasons but there is something about March Madness right selection Sunday to this morning the the brackets Survivor whatever you’re playing I don’t think you ever
Outgrow this no this is uh you know I used to come out with my buddies every year back in the 90s you know from from back east and you come out Wednesday you you know you think you about about way it like early 90s you think you know
What you’re doing you got your own teams and um but you want to stay at a place too like I was thinking to myself we used to go to Bal for some reason because it was well not for some reason it was the famous Four Corners there was
More Sports books there you had the balet sports book you of course had Bellagio you had Caesars you had um the Barberry Coast but behind the Barberry Coast there was another sports book there too maybe the maxim had their own they had a book at the Maxum but there
Was at Bourbon Street there was a place called Bourbon Street so I have six line sets you can look at in a matter of you know 30 minutes 35 minutes you get around and U the corner of the strip in Paradise that corner no it was actually
That corner in the strip and the strip and and and Flamingo that corner Flamingo not B Flamingo and that particular corner right there was uh I I thought it was that you can reach the most books within the shortest amount of time and it’s amazing the differen this
Is before the internet amazing the differences you would find um but I think I was saying it to someone else or I was talking about when you know we used to come out that time of the year we used to like right now you used to always go to the pool it was
Like 10 degrees warmer yeah so I don’t know something happened last decade well you and I we talked about this last week I brought it up but we do get like if you’re in town that we do get two nice for those who are at the pool they get
Nice days today and tomorrow then it goes back to being sucky on Saturday no no it’s going to be like 75 today right yeah today’s nice for them but you know that’s for those who have come into town and so they they do get Lucky in that
Regard uh I do have this breaking news report are you ready for this from some Steve fzk oh yeah noted bridge jumper Steven fzk the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton super contest what’s that Rascal up to uh famously of course had Purdue last year against fairly Dickinson um
And you know look we love Steve but he feels the need to make all this public and so here we are again so he lost on that this just in breaking news fairly Dickinson won as a 16 seed last year famously and people went after him um
What did he lay minus 4,500 I think last year on Purdue I believe that was then just a week or two ago remember he had Villanova against depal and he needed a three three and 29 depal got home easy K what are you talking about never in
Doubt well Steve is announcing that he is playing the money line on all four number one seeds respectively huh now I don’t know his exact numbers so I don’t want to quote any right now um but he is he is on North Carolina Purdue Houston and Yukon the next two days and again
Mathematically speaking right let’s just see because Fez was on earlier this week um and he was a joy to have on the show and we talked briefly about this for those again who are new or newish to betting um mathematically speaking by his numbers right it’s a 99 Point
Whatever chance of those teams winning on the money line again this is not about spreads he’s betting on the money line he’s laying a cartoonish number on it um but value is value and to someone like him who does through things through a mathematical lens if it is perceived
As plus EV which it is to him um then based on the number he’s getting that’s why I don’t want to quote because if I quote something that I’m seeing doesn’t mean that that’s what Steve got and he was very clear of saying hey if I’m if
I’m going minus 4500 on something don’t you go minus 7,000 on it right or whatever uh the difference is so he is getting the best that he can and then he is doing it now it’s not for everyone though as he said please you know bet $5
On it whatever you want to do it’s fine but uh that’s what he’s doing so he will be on all four number one he’s emptying my accounts here like like like he’s asking me to bet for him cuz this is you know like like there there you go there
You go Gil a live bet for you that’s right there it is and let me see well that that he doesn’t know it yet but it’s 30 $ 34,1 125 to win 750 bucks so there there it is the BET has been made and uh I
Just made it right in front of you that was Purdue by the way Pur we don’t have to say where but I mean it’s it’s uh he Seth Davis last night he’s like I don’t know grambling’s got the goods to be Purdue I’m I’m paraphrasing he say it
Could be dicey well got 200,000 pending on three games Steve thanks this is so for Steve that’s his that’s his angle on it now my only thing with him and is I said it to him when he was here cuz he’s like he’s like oh your head’s exploding
I my head’s not exploding I get why you’re doing it I just don’t want know why you feel the need to make it in public all the time I would kind of agree with that yeah I don’t want to yeah I mean but then again you know I
Know it’s mathematically right to do yeah but I’m not going to open myself up I I don’t want to deal with anybody going nuts and you want to know something you guys both notice right most people are rooting against them oh of you of course we talked about this
The other day they’re rooting against them because I will tell you during the depal Villanova game as as as it was going down the wire I everyone was just rooting against him and all I was I was just shaking my head I was like oh please don’t lose we
Talked about the next day how many people texted you during that I probably had four four five six different texts that’s the one thing I will say he completely uh took the attention of all of gambling Twitter with that yeah everybody was rooting against him if I’m
Being honest I I mean I want I want him to win every single one of those bets I kind of hope it’s in filinova style though so I get like a swe on my side 100% just let’s let him feel it a little bit and then have him
Wait I got to be honest you know I actually did I’m I I bet that for him and uh I was one of the bets he might have had more but I didn’t know that I I wasn’t watching the game at all someone said to me do you believe this upset
Happened they didn’t even know I bet it I was like what what upset I was like oh my I turned it on it was like it was literally 5755 or something like that it was whatever it was it was two and then they had to make the three with 1
Seconds Villanova hit a three with with whatever 15 seconds n seconds whatever it was I don’t know but don’t hold me to that but with seconds left in the game and then the final possession to Paul just they didn’t even get past half court got the B stolen yeah wow it got
Stolen yeah so anyway he just he and he by the way if you’re wondering if I’m speaking out of school know Steve authorized that I could say it to the world that that’s a win’s a win I listen I just told people so yeah a win’s a win
Is a win and uh is a win the the part that’s interesting about what you said though is that everyone was rooting against everyone’s rooting against and that we’ve said so many times is the listen I’ve said it to Steve too in his case does he bring part of it on to
Himself he does he even ad you know he he even if he’s here he admits that he does and I always say to him I goes Steve why are you you’re a nice person in in in private why do you got to be this Brash guy in General on Twitter he
Goes I know you’re right I know you’re right and then the second I turn the corner he’s that back to doing it again like he’s like a you know a child that can’t help himself so he does some of it on himself but generally speaking like I
Don’t get the whole thing where betters are rooting against each other I don’t get it at all doesn’t make any sense I don’t know what it is in the DNA of betters where like because they want to be right about future outcomes they got to disparage the guy next to it’s not
Enough for them to be right they got to say I’m right and you’re wrong it’s really hard to bet where where 50,000 will will you know hurt me mentally physically emotionally financially yeah but to make a thousand doesn’t really a thousand’s a good dinner like like like
So I can’t right I I almost can’t justify it but I understand why he does it that’s all it’s wild though like I’m looking at the board right now like I’m just going to use Yukon example like 26 to 26 and a half Point favorite in that
Game against dson money line wise I see any range from minus 7500 to minus 20,000 right that’s why I’m not saying a number because I don’t know what he got it at but that’s a massive difference obviously yeah not it it seems much bigger than it is when you get to those
Numbers but it’s still a difference for sure um all right we’ll come back uh Lear Dan levitar next on GK Network we’re coming back we’ll do a uh March Badness draft bill you want to join us say yes sure that’s next
