The BeatinTheBookie Show: The Valspar Championship

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All right what’s going on everybody Welcome in to the beat in the bookie show today is Tuesday March 19th we are into the V bar coming off the PLAYERS Championship Scotty’s cheffer another dominating performance two years in a row shocker he’s uh pretty nuts but now

We move on to the V bar a little bit less of a hyped up tournament I guess you could say but still gonna be a fun one so let’s go ahead and dive on in where are they playing Copperhead Club down there it’s gonna be uh it’s gonna

Be a fun one yeah in the Tampa area Palm Harbor the NS Brook Resort uh I just want to say happy that we finally catched Scotty sheffler I had a feeling he was going to win again last week that’s why we did two units on him to

Win um when he was down what what was it nine Strokes he was down on Saturday yeah um I had a feeling he would make a run but that’s quite quite the the far way to to have to you know gain on somebody but Xander chafl give credit to him in

Typical Xander shlay fashion he found a way to BW blow the lead and um and as predicted Rory was a total noow on the weekend and our Max play cashed by like 11 Strokes on Sheffer over Rory so very nice weekend for us definitely a fun one sweaten out the uh

The max for less than a day I mean it was awesome definitely a great a great winner there I sweed out for Rory’s front nine basically and then he he fell apart after that so it a very uh very nice five water balls from him so it was

A drama you know the broadcast was you know we’re getting a little bit of the an inside into what was going on out there on the course that was fun on Thursday Thursday yeah yeah it was and they you know the PGA did a really you

Know I give the PGA a lot of crap but they really did a very good job with the coverage this week um limited commercials I I I honestly I can’t even remember one commercial to be honest uh they didn’t do any of those playing through commercials uh the TV coverage was was

Awesome so um you know I appreciate the PJ finally giving the people what they want and hopefully they do that more going forward so steps in the right direction you know yeah right hopefully it’s it continues that way we want that that greater trajectory for surey Masters which is the best watching

Experience of them all so we are and for and fortunately for the the rest of the PGA Scotty sh decided to take the week off uh so he won’t be one this week’s tournament um no surprise here Xander chafl is the nuts favorite um I think he is down to uh

He’s plus 700 to win this event um a guy who can’t close a tournament to save his life you know down to seven to one no thank you there for me um but yeah seven to one for him I mean I don’t like that at all not

Especially for a guy a guy who can’t close his best you know Xander’s best finish here in the last five 5 years is 12th Place in 2022 he hasn’t really played this course much you know but uh one guy that I do love here is Sam Burns

Uh Sam Sam was playing some good golf last week up to the 14th hole on the final day I think we had him to beat Jason day in a tournament matchup he was h four strokes ahead of Jason day going to the 14th and he had three double

Bogies to close it out uh so you know his his 45th uh finish last last week kind of got skewed a little bit by his last four holes but Sam burns his track record here unbelievable sixth place last year he won it back toback in 22

And 21 he got 30th in 2019 and he got 12th in 2018 so um his track record here is amazing and I’m looking forward to backing Sam for this week I think that Sam Burns minus 125 for a top 20 finish I think that’s a great BET right there and I’m looking

Forward to that so that’s going to be an exciting exciting week of golf we got a lot of golfers I mean it’s pretty good field um you got guys like JT and Jordan spe who they’re probably wouldn’t be playing this tournament in normal circumstances but since they did so

Poorly at the Players both missing the cut they are both here um you know and Justin Thomas uh he got 10th place last year third in 2022 13th in 2021 and Jordan spe got third place last year uh but they’re coming in playing some essentially terrible golf

Both of them so uh they’re both definitely no bets for me um and then uh you know down below them we got Brian Harmon at 20 to one uh you know doesn’t really you know pretty good odds for Brian Harmon uh you know he’s plus 115

For a top 20 uh Brian’s coming in off a second place finish at the Players champ ship 12th Place at the API uh he did miss the cut here last year uh he got fifth the year before and he did not play it in 2021 but

Brian um for a little guy he’s certainly very powerful and when hits putter is rolling I’ll tell you what he had in the final round I took Brian Harmon over four and a half birdies and his first four holes he missed three easy birdie putts I mean not easy birdie

Putts but from you know 14t or less which he usually makes so Brian Harmon could have easily been the Players champion and he had a chance at the end also to win it and send it to a playoff against Scotty um so yeah Brian Harmon he is

Playing some good golf but uh you know below that we’ve got you know the usual suspects cam young who has all the talent in the world but he just can’t put it together for four rounds it is cuz he you know he he played his best golf a year and a half

Ago you know and um he he’s seems like he’s far far far away from that um and then you know beyond cam we’ve got Sun JM who he’s almost nonexistent anymore he’s a non-factor uh to win any of these tournaments really um sunj he got 31st

The players 18th at the API missed the cut at the cognizant 44th at the Genesis uh his best best place uh finish at this tournament was uh fourth place in 2019 he hasn’t played it the last two years um we’re seeing a I mean he was stroking it out there he

Was a great at the top of his game at that point now you know this this season and the tailing the last season he’s kind of falling off a little bit he is and you’re seeing a lot of guys coming to this tournament that usually wouldn’t play it because they’re playing just so

Poorly that they’re trying to get more you know tournaments on them you know before the Masters like Tony Fina for example uh you know Tony got 45th of the players 13th of the Mexico open 40 uh sorry 19th at the Genesis uh he got you know he hasn’t

Played this event in two years uh he got 29th in 2021 and fourth place in 2019 um sorry that’s Sun JM Tony hasn’t played this event in four years uh he last played it in 2018 actually so he hasn’t played play this event in you know there obviously

There’s no 2020 because of Co but he hasn’t played this event in five golf years so uh Tony’s probably coming in here because he’s playing poorly and uh he wants to get you know his game in gear for the Masters um below him we’ve got Min minw Le plus three plus

3,000 um you know he’s he has flashes where he plays really well um like at the M he had he had a couple great rounds and he kind of fell off on the weekend um he’s got 54th at the Players 44th at the API second at the cognizant um he’s never played this

Event um so you know if he’s never played this event I think that you know the course can be a little tricky so um off been on the on the card this week he’s been on my card the last two weeks but you know not having played in the

Course before even though he’s had you know he’s had somewhat of a mediocre season this year um but there had obviously with with the second place finish at the cognizant he was playing good that week but he hasn’t really had it all year and he let me down past

Three weeks so steering clear of Mr Lee today he has and then you know the further down the list we go uh we got Adam hadwin 35 to one um he missed the card at the Players 52nd at the API fourth place at the Genesis uh his

Results at the you know at this uh you know at this event are very like all over the place he missed a cut last year he got seventh in 2022 and in 2022 I had him for the first round leader I believe it’s 70 to1 we hit that

Um we hit uh actually that was the year we hadit I believe it was Sam uh Keegan Bradley we had two two first round leaders but I had both of them given them I had given them out for free so um he missed the cut in 211 and 19 and he

Got 12th and 2018 so uh he plays this course well but he’s not very consistent and um you know below him we got Keegan Bradley who um second place here in 2021 U I think I recall him blowing a lead uh in that event um basically

Forgetting how to to hit his irons and I think he blew the lead to Sam Burns um but you know that was a that was a rough one for Keegan uh that was kind of right before he went on that run of playing pretty well uh Keegan he’s

Struggling this year right he’s missed a cut at the Players uh 36 the API and he missed a cut at the Genesis so that’s been his season so far so if there’s anywhere you know that Keegan Bradley is looking to get his season on on on track this is

Definitely the course where he he wants to do it at um so I like Keegan Bradley uh top 20 at plus 180 um and his top 30 at at plus 100 you know even money I love that so those will definitely be two plays of mine are

There any golfers you like yeah so I’ve got a couple I got a couple for this week the I’m on Andrew Novak heavy this week I like Andrew Novak I’m on in a couple of matchups as well as a top 40 um for top 40 sitting at plus 125 um

Been playing iffy this season but big on him this week the other one I’ve got he played great last year in the Spar Adam shank so are you familiar very familiar with Adam shank I faded him last weekend that was my reason for for bringing it up so faded him last weekend

This weekend though all on Adam shank he is he’s sitting in a great spot you know last year he played he played great at this tournament I believe he third or fourth last year um but he’s had a great season so far second second second place last year second place last year hey

Even better um yeah so those are my two uh top 40s all right and you know you got last year’s Champion Taylor Moore um He is 65 to one so if you think he can repeat you can have him for 65 to one odds or plus 28 for if you think he’s

Gonna get top 40 you know you can get him at minus 110 and he you know he’s honestly he’s not playing too bad 31 the players 48th at the API 31st at the Genesis uh he did win this last year so um you know in my experience this course the V barar play

Is very um it’s a very you know guys who play here in years prior they play pretty well here every year so like past winners have had success here like I said Sam Burns one backto back here um he seems to always play pretty consistent here um so you

Know Taylor Taylor more at 65 to one you could probably find better odds than another book these are DraftKings odds but um definitely worth a flyer because like I said this is a course where we have seen Champions go back to back so um if you believe in back-to-back

Champions uh you know Taylor Moore is your guy U coming into this event um but below that I mean this could be you know this this is not like the players uh we could see a guy win here who’s like a reverting back to those lesser names

Right that we’ve seen to start the PJ season right um so I would not be surprised if a guy you know 65 to one like a Taylor Mo or like a 60 to1 like Adam shank if one of those guys just got hot um and rolled it pretty well uh one

Guy that I do like who’s playing some very very good golf right probably the best golf of his career so far coming in Maverick mcney um 55 to one he’s plus 250 for a top 20 he’s a 13th off the te this season um he’s first place uh in the PJ and

Strokes gained around the green um and 19th in pting so he’s having a very very good year he got Ninth Place at the Players 41st at the cognizant 13th at the Mexico open he got 36 place here last year so um I definitely will be playing mavick mcney plus 250 for a top

20 and I absolutely love his plus 140 for a top 30 uh for me that’ll probably be a two-unit play at for top 40 I’m loving that he’s playing he’s playing some great golf coming in the year so I definitely you know a Sprinkle Maverick you know I might sprinkle a

Half unit on on him to win it at 55 to one I definitely think that uh he’s playing much better golf than a lot of guys who are in front of him like Bo Hustler Aaron Ry who I played Aaron Ry in the first round last week uh saw a

Lot of people on Aaron Ry and he just total buns uh you can’t trust a guy who wears two gloves no you can’t uh on The Fairway you know you’re wearing two gloves to hit your irons never again uh Aaron R cost me a match up parlay last

Week so never gonna forgive him I hope he gets last place with Justin Thomas so that’s where I am right there but um you know there’s there’s a lot of value this week and this could be the the week where we go back to one of those you

Know long shot winners so I’m looking forward to it yep definitely looking forward to it on this side of the screen as well you know last week was what was the total unit profit last week I think we made 21 units um absolutely beautiful absolutely beautiful I’m looking for a

Repeat of that no Scotty in the mix this week though so we don’t have that lock in the winter Circle but you know we’re gonna find him I’m excited the course is going to be beautiful on TV I’ve already been seeing some some Clips coming out

Of it so going to be a good week man got anything else it’s always a nice tournament I mean it’s a it’s it’s a nice club and um it’s kind of like a farewell to Florida this tournament you every year this is the end of the Florida tour for

The for the season so um looking forward to it this is always a fun event it’s always the last few years have come down to the last couple holes for all the guys who are in the mix so whether it’s Keegan Bradley versus Sam Burns or whether it’s you know Mo versus Adam

Shank right like it’s come down to the last few holes the last few years and I’m I’m definitely looking forward to it so um it’s going to be a fun one and you know we’re getting ready for the Masters the Masters is coming up and uh we’re

Going to do something special for the Masters might do a live stream uh from my my golf simulator Golf Club um so we’re working on some stuff for that um but yeah so just to sum it up I mean couple guys will be playing this weekend Sam Burns Keegan Bradley uh Maverick

McNeely Taylor Moore um know you like Adam shank uh you know Brian Harmon um but I’m not touching Xander I’m not touching Justin Thomas though Justin Thomas look his track record here 13th and 21 third 22 10th place here last last year so if you want to take

Justin Thomas for a bounceback top 20 at minus 120 go ahead uh can Justin Thomas win an event right now I’d definitely be very surprised uh could Jordan spe yeah but man yeah surprise is a understatement and if you want to bet Jordan spe this week don’t waste your

Money on him outright just take him to be the first round leader um because Jordan he’s been coming out hot and just totally falling off after that I think at the at the The Players Championship I think through two rounds he had the most birdies on the

Course but he also had the most Bogies so um he just cannot get his game you know in the right spot and um you know so you know if you’re looking for guys to fade Xander JT and you know speed unless you’re taking JT for a top 20 um

But that’s that’s why I am it’s going to be a fun week and like I said just getting ready for the Masters um getting ready for the March Badness right the end Sy tournament is upon us starts tonight with the plan games so staying home this year so we’re

Gonna be I’m gonna be locked in oh dude um I’ve been sick I’ve been sick so btb has graciously brought me out to Vegas for the last two years for March Madness and the dates were earlier in the month last year and the year before dude best

Time of my life the last two years so much fun man so much fun um we’ll get back out there we’ll get back out there I’ve got three three plays just to sum it up Adam shank top 40 Maverick mcne top 40 and Taylor Moore top 40 all those

Are sitting in around minus 110 minus 120 so um yeah it’s gonna be a good week for golf and we’ll hit it hard and see you guys next week see you ler