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Hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 valpar Championship DFS tactic show before I forget I do have one shout out for this week I had meant to do this Monday and it completely slipped my mind congratulations to Gabe uh who took down
A uh or didn’t take down but he had another top 10 lineup and I believe it was the birdie uh for the Players Championship last week uh that lineup alone brought him a pretty decent week but he also mentioned that if Tom hogi didn’t shoot a bajillion over the
Weekend he might have taken it down but such is the way things go uh but congratulations Gabe on your successful Le successful week last week at the Players I wanted to make sure I started the show off with that considering I forgot to do that Monday and as always
If you have success uh whether that is in DFS outright Wagers uh maybe you’re going to have some success with the March Madness fantasy baseball’s coming up whatever success you have and you’re a member of this community feel free to reach out to me on social media jump
Into chat would love to be able to shout out all of the members of the community that have success um but we’re here for the Val Spar Championship we have everything you need to optimize your lineups uh and finalize them the updated forecast updated uh projected ownerships
All that good stuff uh and we’ll talk a little bit of March Madness I guess um if the community wants to as well as you can see the fandom is on Full display until they inevitably lose I hope they don’t but you know they they probably
Will um but we are going to be covering a lot of things vpar so let’s get into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter
Golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you won’t regret it in the description to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where I post research every week around the PJ tour uh most often
Around the pattern uh that the champions of that week’s tournament uh share in common the players who uh exhibit that pattern uh all of that good stuff so if you want to see the weekly research that I do for the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media
Site uh X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and top player usage in the DFS lineups that I play uh that’ll be no different that comes out after calls calls and the DFS tactics show on Wednesday evening so that’ll be out later tonight and it’s going to be
An extended betting card as I’m going to combine my valpar and my March Madness selections uh definitely fired off quite a few Wagers in March Madness or for March March Madness so going to be um updating you all with that plus the top U players or most often used players in
My lineups so if you want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X and then lastly for social media gabes uh handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to wait great way to start your week
Of preparation and throughout the week he updates you with his own version of recent form course history and if you are subscri subcriber to his article which is free to do by the way you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday evening
After the DFS tactics show as he is gracious enough to host me over there and we continue our DFS talk uh talking about our best plays areas of the price board that we seem to be gravitating to or fading away from uh Game Theory all
Of that so you don’t want to miss out on the great discussion over there the only way you’re going to be able to do that is if you subscribe to his article it is free to do by the way so go show him some support follow him on over on
Social media as well then lastly for this elongated intro we’re live chat is open want to hear from you all in addition to the poll question which I will post here in a moment uh who’s your winner for the vpar uh who are you targeting are you going to the upper
Extremes of the price board are you falling into the lower extremes of the price board uh any players that you uh are fading away from uh but I’ve got some pretty uh interesting recommendations for you all including a 6K play that’s in my top five in my
Rankings so you don’t want to miss that so stick around towards the end of the show as I reveal my rankings and work on lineups but we are here to cover the V everything vpar so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 vpar championship and we start
Over at windfinder in the updated forecast the uh super forecast for Palm Harbor and um everything inisbrook let me post this poll question very very quickly quite simple um what have you spent more time on this week valpar research or March Madness brackets so would love to hear from the community in
That regard what you all have join or worked on more this week um of course I’ll give my answer and whatnot towards the end of the show looking at the forecast for inisbrook for the week and weekend tomorrow doesn’t look too bad uh perhaps a little
Bit of wind in the morning and actually is forecasted to die down throughout the the day not sure if I want to put a whole lot of emphasis into that because generally the wind picks up uh during the afternoon but at the very least we’re not seeing a whole lot of wind in
Terms of Thursday um if you wanted to give a slight favor to the Thursday PM I wouldn’t blame you based on this forecast but not going to put a whole lot into it Friday is where things really start to go Haywire you see a ton
Of rain a Friday very well could be a wash out the wind drastically picks up in the afternoon now normally if seeing this I would put a heavy favor in the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. having said that because of all the rain that is in the
Forecast it very well could be that that Friday is a wash out meaning that that um the afternoon wave of Friday gets pushed to Saturday morning and I don’t know if there would be too much of a wave advantage in that regard so what I’m going to suggest or
At least this is I’m going to tell you what I’m doing I’m not factoring in too much of a wave Advantage I’m just kind of playing my guys because there’s two lines of thinking here and and gabes kind of summed it best uh over on social
Media when he was talking about it a little bit earlier he uh what I’m going to do I’m just not factoring it in too much I might use the Thursday PM Friday a.m. in terms of tiebreaker scenarios but there’s two ways to go about it one you can try to pick
A uh a half of the draw and just focus on that and hope that you’re right you’re going that is the that is the much more Boomer bust um scenario uh for example if you wanted to focus on the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. and just tailor all your lineups to that
If that wave Advantage does indeed materialize you’re going to be in a really really good spot however if that doesn’t materialize or the um the forecast and the rain comes in um moves the tournament around and whatnot you’re going to be you’re going to be struggling quite a bit I think um
If you solely focus on one half of the draw uh just hoping that you get it right the second way to go about it is to focus on both halves of the draw and just kind of split your lineups between between the Thursday a.m. Friday p.m. and Thursday P p.m.
Friday a.m. just kind of going 50/50 the downside of that is right from the start if a wave Advantage materializes you’re going to be your 50% of your lineups are automatically losing uh if you decide to split them but conversely you you know you’re not taking yourself out of the week if a
Wave um wave Advantage materializes if you’re playing both waves uh or or doing lineups that focus on both waves instead of doing either of those um I’m not going to factor it in because this is Florida Florida weather changes drastically and it changes quickly as well this forecast is changed a couple
Of times even throughout last night and today if we zoom out we go go to say Saturday there still appears to be a little bit of rain possibility a whole lot of wind Sunday Monday even a whole lot of a whole lot of wind so what I’m doing is I’m just not
Playing anybody that’s bad in the wind that’s where I’m going with that because except for Thursday every single day is going to have a pretty considerable amount of wind so so that is my recommendation to you all instead of focusing on a half of the draw I’m going
To strongly Advocate that you just don’t play anybody that’s bad in the wind uh and instead of trying to navigate a a changing forecast a volatile forecast a forecast that has a lot of rain um instead of trying to guess which side of the draw I’m just going to say
To avoid bad win players and then go from there so with that in fact I’m going to keep that up uh just in case we want to look at it throughout the evening but we’ll move to Fantasy National and in the last two years in moderate and windy conditions
More than likely windy conditions but in moderate and windy conditions our top performers in the field this week Xander Justin Thomas Jordan spe Sam Burns Harry Hall Patrick Rogers Sun Jay Carson young Andrew Novak and Adam shank are your top 10 in terms of wind performance the past
Couple of years continuing on down a little bit Brenan Todd Eric Cole Brian Harmon OA batia sep straa and so on down the list there you can see about to the top 25 or so I would really give these guys a considerable boost this week considering the amount of wind that is
In the forecast conversely uh these players are are just non starters for me not going to use them at all um considering their their poor wind performance Carl Yuan Kevin kizner Harrison indicot Ryan brim Matty Schmid Stuart sink Justin low camamo vas Tyson Alexander Davis Riley rich rinsky Paul Baron Sheamus power Matthew
N Smith Nico etaria and so on down I’m just these players are just non-starters because of the amount of win that’s in the forecast for the entirety of the week perhaps with the exception of tomorrow so that’s where I am focused in terms of wave advantage or or players to
To Target or whatnot just Target your win Specialist or your players that aren’t effective by the wind as much but due to the amount of wind that is in the forecast I have no doubt that this will play really difficult really difficult this week so our top performers in rounds that are difficult
Relative to par Xander Jordan Speed Tony fow Brendan Todd Justin Su Ryan Fox Andrew putam minw Le Thomas dietry and Gary Wood are your top 10 performers when rounds have been difficult the last couple of years continuing on down sunjay Taylor Moore Adam hadwin Sam Burns Christian Baden hoot and so on you
Can see again about the top 25 or so there players that have been the best in terms of total performance when rounds are difficult relative to par other end of the spectrum players who have not been good Ryan brim Nico etaria Kevin kizner mty Schmid Rich Richie rinsky
Those five are straight overlaps from the wind as well Ben Taylor Ryan Moore Matthew n Smith Peter malady Cameron Champ Molinari Cameo vaja sneer sink uh Buckley Hoffman so these players uh I would downgrade considerably maybe not eliminate them entirely but downgrade them considerably considering I think I I’m I’m pretty
Darn confident that this is going to play difficult due to all the wind and these players have been bad in the wind or excuse me bad when it’s difficult um relative to par the past couple of years only because I saw him out of the corner
Of my eye there has been one more field change Garrick higgo is not playing Garrick higgo has withdrawn so do make a note of that if you have submitted lineups with him make sure you go change those or if you are finalizing your lineups Garrick higo is not playing he withdrew earlier
Today all right we took a look at difficult we took a look at Windy let’s go ahead and go to the mixed condition model that I have built for inisbrook and the vpar championship this week um and run you through my thoughts as I was creating this uh a little bit of a
Shorter uh or smaller mixed condition model less metrics than I been using uh as of late we start with off the tea and I debated all week whether I wanted to look at it but just like at Saw Grass and gab talking me into using off the
Tea at Saw Grass and it ended up being a decent little Factor last week much the same here this this is Target golf uh at a premium uh not necessarily distance although I can’t help um on a few occasions this is more about Target golf
So I want to see the players who are um just able to hit their spots they’re not going to take themsel out of the hole immediately off the drive so 5% uh in the last two years win rounds are difficult you could use a few different filters here maybe you wanted
To look at in the wind maybe look at when Fairways are difficult I just chose to use the scoring difficult Rel Rel to power filter cuz again I’m very very confident that it’s going to be difficult this week I wanted to put more percentage in Strokes gain approach I
Ended up keeping it at 15% like last year to make sure I covered everything that I wanted to and have enough emphasis in what I wanted so only 15% in approach if anything I think this is a little bit light uh I would I would
Argue to go to 20% if you were going to change this percentage but still a heavy focus on the uh iron game as these greens are slightly smaller than tour average but they’re difficult to hit uh water all in play so I do want to Target the ball Strikers this week 5% around
The Green in long rough uh again probably a slight uh bit less than what I would have ideally liked to have had um I do think around the green is going to play a pretty pry pretty big portion with the amount of wind and the uh difficulty that that inisbrook presents
I only had 5% kind of left by the end of the mixed condition model uh and using the long rough filter um helped justify only using 5% uh instead of looking at around the Green in totality 15% in putting and this is one of the biggest reasons why I am a little
Bit lighter on these two metrics look we look we saw all week throughout of course breakdowns and then the stats and XL even in the prior leaderboards putting is just a big deal here at inisbrook so I am looking at poet trivialis this is what we are on um here
At inisbrook in the last couple of years so this is TPC Saw Grass from last week in in 2023 TPC Scottdale TPC San Antonio Harbor Town The Stadium Course which is the host of the AMX qu Hollow all of those places have poet trivialis overseed so a real real big emphasis on
Putting this week and I wanted to really really bring that to the Forefront of the mixed condition model 10% good drives gained again as I talked about in the off the te portion I’m really focused on the accuracy so no driving distance per se just good drives gain
Players are able to hit the Fairway or they’re good enough with their irons that they can hit the uh greens wi in the rough but mostly it’s about the fairways 10% when rounds are difficult to par 10% in bogey avoidance when rounds are difficult again pars are
Going to be pretty good scores here this week so I want to see who can um Salvage their way to their pars not lose shots and then to round out the mixed condition model 15% Par 3 this a little spe speculative on my part a little bit
Cuz the data didn’t really back this up but I just have a firm belief that with five par 3s that they’re going to have added emphasis so uh this is a little bit of of my slant in the mixed condition model this week 15% in par 3s you have to
Score on the par fives here at inisbrook you just got to so 15% in the specific range of par fives 550 to 600 we’ve seen all week that those are just the most important or that is the most important range and then to finalize the mixed
Condition model 10% in the par fours 400 to 450 again we saw throughout the week that this is the the range that matters the most for the par fours so there’s a look at the mixed condition model that I have made for the um for the vpar and for inisbrook
This week good evening Pete thanks for jumping in chat it’s much appreciated good to see you um I’m I’m guessing that is you that is uh spent the more more time on the valpar research um you got a couple of couple of local schools up there uh playing in in some March mens
So not sure if you’re a you’re a basketball person but uh it’s good to see you this evening hopefully you’re ready for the vpar and uh and March Madness if you are so inclined so there’s a look at the mixed condition model uh things where I could
Be weak uh again as I mentioned I I think this is a little bit light on approach uh if anything I’d want to put 20% here this is probably light on around the green if anything this should go to about 10% um if we needed to factor in Birdie’s gain when it’s difficult
Um you know I’ll be weak to that but otherwise you know I just kind of stuck straight to to what the data was showing throughout the week um you know good drives accuracy bogey avoidance um the specific length of par fives uh things of that nature so uh
Colorado buff salum um I know they’re playing right now uh obviously doing the show live I don’t know how that’s going against Boise State um but I do like their draw I do like Colorado so if they a are able to get past Boise State
Um I do like their draw and who they play in the second or I guess technically in the round of 64 I hate the first four I just hate it um in Illinois I actually I like Illinois a lot this week in in the tournament I do
Famous last words I’ve just jinxed them both so sorry for you P um all right so there’s a look at the mix condition model let’s go to Microsoft XL the reveal of my rankings is as I mentioned at the top of the show I have a 6K play in the top five of
My rankings and I’m backing it full-heartedly full you know wholeheartedly here also probably full-heartedly but yeah my my rankings go as such Xander is my number one player this week Sam Burns is number two briyan Harman third Doug gim fourth and 6100 Ben Martin rounds out my top five
Tony fenale Grayson Sig Keith Mitchell Michael Kim and Davis Thompson round out my top 10 with a slight caveat on Davis Thompson he is actually not going to be 10th for me the metrics really really like him he is fairly low owned but if you were to go and look at his wind
Performance his uh performance when it’s difficult he would drop fairly considerably so there’s a look at my top 10 probably no surprise with the uh four guys up here uh you know five of the six considering the amount of ownership that they are getting uh per fantasy
National but uh Ben Martin 6,100 Grayson Sig 6300 and Michael Kim 6000 all in my top 10 Michael Kim is probably the less surpris just because the analytics have loved him for the past year or so and he’s got some decent stuff his irons haven’t been as good but par three
Performan is strong top 10 in the length of the par fives yes um so he’s been really good at the metrics that we pulled in for this I want to talk about Ben Martin at 2% projected ownership right now yes the course value is not that great but this is a very volatile
Course so I’m not putting a whole lot of emphasis into course value top 30 in irons top 30 on on uh putting on this surface top five in par 3es and this is my slant this week I just think they’re going to carry quite a bit of um
Significance so right off the bat some great metrics there at 6,100 yes the par five performance has to be quite a bit better CU you have to score on these to do well here at in Brook and he hasn’t done that but even past the par fives generally keeps keeps
Himself in play top 10 and good drives gained top 30 in bogey avoidance when it’s difficult top 25 on the par fours top 15 off the te when it’s difficult so I love everything about Ben Martin this week um again course value is not not that
Good but I’m not putting a whole lot of emphasis into it quick quick reminder for returning viewers or for your information if you’re a new viewer my rankings are based on three criteria the fgc rank which is a straight numerical ranking numerical value based on the mixed condition model we just talked
About the metrics and the percentages uh from that um model it just spits out a ranking course value is the uh ability or the the attempt at giving a player a new numerical value based on how well they have played this course the past 5 years the lower the
Number the better you see Sam Burns n and a half because he’s just dominated uh inisbrook the past five years and then we are playing DFS so I do factor in percent owned as we were trying to find the more the most unique options so there’s uh an explanation on how my
Rankings are generated I do not factor in tea time or or wind or anything like I do that uh on my own and that’s why we cover windfinder in the beginning um like I mentioned Davis Thompson I’m not as high on because he does not play well
In the wind does not play well when it’s difficult so uh none of those factors are are really kind of brought into this now you do you are using some difficult to par filters and he’s pretty middling with those he’s pretty middling with those now the alpha T when it’s different is is
Okay so I’m just not as high on Davis Davis Thompson but otherwise up here I mean no real shock on any of these players here Keith Mitchell I was really high on at Saw Grass uh he made the cut and then imploded shot about 96 108 it’s a slight exaggeration but he imploded
The stats are still good the stats are still good and it’s going to be difficult this week and that’s when he’s at his best is when it’s ult top 15 in the irons they’ve gotten better uh that’s been the knock on Keith Mitchell for a while now is that his iron play
Has been bad he’s 15th in this field with the irons he’s pretty good on this surface top 25 in both par threes and the par fivs second and off the te when it’s difficult don’t want to overlook that aspect either second off the te when it’s difficult so I like Keith
Mitchell quite a bit too even though he did not pan out last week at Sawgrass there’s a look at my top 10 enough rambling there let’s sort on the price board and go through it see where our fellow contestants seem to be gravitating to to and how we can um find
The best pivots uh off of them and who to fade so in the five digits in the 10ks we have five players this week Xander at 112 or excuse me four players this week Xander at 11 72 Sam Burns at 109 JT at 104 and Jordan spe at 102 not
Nearly as high on Jordan spe again this week I mentioned it last week I was off of him he missed the cut one of the few things I got right last week he is going to be unique but I’m just scared with the irons I’m just scared about the
Irons the irons have not been good for Jordan spe I can’t call it an outright full fade I’m sure I might have I’m sure I’ll have him once but I’m not nearly as high as this 13th would suggest instead look they’re the most popular plays per fantasy National and per gab source
Which I’ll have over here off to the side I mean Xander projected 38% that’s gross but I don’t see any reason not to play him and especially since a little foreshadowing here with the Ben Martin but I I think there are a few 6K plays
That we’re going to be able to find our uniqueness enough that we can justify using Xander this week Sam Burns solid play um loves loves inisbrook uh two-time winner here he’s at 23% fine I’ll use him I’m higher on Xander by a by a decent little amount
But I think Sam Burns is a fine play Justin Thomas really really shot I shot me as far as last week uh I was all over just Justin Thomas him missing the cut destroyed my week again seems like it should be a good play he has played very well here
At inisbrook top five in the irons he’s not a very good putter on poet Tri Alis but I mean a lot of things going for him I’m probably going to try to limit my use of him though um knowing that I was so high on him last week and and he and he
Missed the cut he’s also at 22% and I’m much more confident in Sam Burns than I am and Justin Thomas and Sam Burns is you know about a percent more in terms of projected ownership so I would much rather just pay up the 500 for Sam Burns
Pay up the 1% one to 2% in projected ownership for the Sam Burns so I am going at the upper extremes of the price board the most this week I’m not fading anybody in the 10ks like I’m sure I’ll have Jordan spe once or twice I’ll have
Justin Thomas once or twice but I am really trying to squeeze in as much Xander and Sam Burns as I can because I’m confident I’m going to be able to find some uniqueness lower in the price board um and even according to gab Source Jordan speed’s not all that uh
Unique he’s only 10% per fantasy National he’s 19% per gab source so I would just much rather play the Sam Burns uh even if he’s 3 to 4% more on than Jordan Speed I’m just extremely confident about Sam Burns and his ability here at inisbrook so there’s a
Look at the 10ks I’m just going all up in here moving to the nines not going to go through each players I do want to make a few lineups for you all Brian Harman going be fine just very very chalky Harmon’s at 18 17 to 18% it’s
Fine you know top 25 in irons excellent on this surface I mean the off the te is his worst and it’s you know slightly green it’s fine it’s it’s a it’s a good play I think just going to be pretty darn chalky I’ll have Brian Harmon Cameron young okay um interesting
Terrible on this surface which that didn’t stop me from using him last week right at about 15 and a half% per per both sources I’ll use him I’m just not as high as that 21st might suggest it’s kind of lukewarm for me if he fits into
A into a lineup great if not I’m not I’m not extending myself or I’m not reaching to try to use a Cameron young cuz I do like Tony fenale even at the ownership you know 15 1 12 here 18% per Gabe Source I like Tony fenale number one
Iron player this week and I as I’ve mentioned a couple times now I think this is a little bit light on the irons um par 3s need to be better but as much as Tony fenale is not a good putter he’s actually acceptable on this surface
And then all of the you know difficult to par narrative good drives and bogey avoidance and off the tea love Tony fenale this week that’s some chalk I’ll eat hey Darnell good to see you in chat good evening um hopefully you’re uh ready for the V Spar would love to
Hear um what you have done or or your answer to the poll question uh not sure if you have any fandom in college basketball mine is uh mine’s a little subtle I know but um hopefully you can make out what uh who I root for have a
Little trash talk with that uh but hopefully you are ready for the VP it’s good to see you this evening look I I talk about sunjay a lot and he’s he’s he’s been mediocre to bad the irons have not been good lately but at some point he’s going to turn it
Around now he is getting more love than he was at SRA so I think I’m quite a bit lower on sunj I just I’m going to keep it in your in you know in your mind just keep paying attention to sunjay because when he’s going to when he gets low
Ownership that’s when you want to strike um no college for me in Connecticut those go Huskies I mean Connecticut is I was fortunate last year I had I had a sports book wager on Connecticut um 18 20 to1 from pre-tournament so I I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t be good
Again uh good for another run although um the the pattern of recent national champions um has not been good so that is one one thing to worry about but I mean I think they’re the best team in college basketball for what it’s worth uh went to the went to your same high
School that’s pretty awesome um dude dude is legit dude is legit and missing Coach K coach um yeah I think Shy’s been good though I i’ I’ve been I’ve been uh pleased with with what Shy’s done uh in his two years there so I can’t I can’t
Complain uh elsewhere at the bottom half or bottom part of the 9ks like Nick Taylor again pretty pretty chalky 12 a 12% per gab Source 15% for Fantasy National I do like Nick Taylor although he can struggle a little bit when it gets difficult so keep that in mind but
Hasn’t stopped him from playing fairly well here in the past it’s okay I I’m much more confident in F now and Harmon than say Nick t and Cameron young but I’ll have a little bit of these two mini is a pure wild card this does not feel
Like a good Min wo Le fit considering the irons haven’t been great he’s really bad at the par 3s or has been bad at the par 3s this season he can get Wayward with the best of them as well so it’s a pure wild card I don’t
Know not in love with it I’ll tell you that but 37 in the in the um fantasy national ranking is is it’s not terrible so just none of these players are going to be unique I mean Nick Taylor per gabes Source Nick Taylor is the most unique at 12 a half now fantasy
National seems to really be low on Mini or the members at Fantasy National seem to be really low at on Min muli so he might be worth some speculation I’m just not in love with that I don’t see a a great course fit here so in the 9ks I’ll
Use Harmon I know it’s chalky but it’s just kind of a solid play but mostly I’m I’m at Tony feno in the 9ks I’ll sprinkle in some some cam young I’ll sprinkle in some some Nick Taylor um but mainly it’s it’s it’s fenale in the nines I’m not really in
The nines a whole lot because I’ve been using just the the extreme upper end of the price board moving to the eights look I like Keith Mitchell we talked about him in the reveal of the top 10 I like Keith Mitchell again I know he hadn’t been great here but when it’s
Difficult that’s when I start really paying attention to Keith Mitchell sixth per by the pure numbers um irons have been good which is his much maligned um you know metric or or shot recently and he’s also sub 10% gab source so I kind of like Keith Mitchell
There uh liking the weather advantage to PM am going to stack this week that’s fine um if I had to choose a half of the draw that’s the way I would go but uh I’m not doing that and uh I mentioned why at the beginning so after
The show um check out uh check out the beginning of the show from what you missed and I give you my explanation on why I’m not stacking most ofly mostly because I think it’s going to I think Friday’s going to be a wash out so I don’t think they’re going to
Play the entire round Friday is the is the summary of it but I go into much more detail at the beginning of the show bazen hoot chalky 14 and a half here 12% per gab Source um the irons have been very very good like conceptually this doesn’t feel
Like a good Christian bazen ho course especially since he’s not the best on Long par FIV but no denying the fact that his irons have been really good and he loves shorter par fours so it could fit he’s just not not very unique I would much rather play Keith Mitchell
Especially since I’m getting some uniqueness off of bazen hood as well Eric Cole’s fine I like the difficulty but this course is this course can probably play a little bit longer than what Eric Cole likes not great at the par 3s and he’s not the best off the tea
At all so he can take himself right out of the hole my bold fade this week is Aaron Ry um conceptually this feels like a very very good Aaron Ry course this has everything to do with ownership 15% here close to 14 to 14 and a half per gab
Source like I can I I just feel much more comfortable using Keith Mitchell maybe a a a CZ or time or two um and even Doug gim who I’m much higher on than than Aaron Ry so uh Aaron R it’s it’s a it’s an ownership thing which is preventing me
From really liking him CU again conceptually this feels like a really good Aaron Ry course all about the accuracy the irons par thre but he also struggles a little bit when it gets extremely difficult so that I’m also going to play into that angle
And I could be wrong but this is one of this is my bold fade for the week is Aaron Ry mentioned Doug gam again very very very chalky probably third most projected own maybe fourth most projected owned player on the Slate this week I mean for good reason even the
Putter is acceptable on poetry reality the irons have been Elite lately does not he actually just been playing very very well when it’s difficult so really like Doug gim can I have to limit your exposure to him and or uh find your uniqueness um I’m going with the ladder
Because I think I can find some uniqueness elsewhere lower in the price board uh but he’s going to be widely owned just understand that thinking getting nice Friday AM score will be a clear Advantage the first PMS push back the wins yeah I mean that’s the forecast you’re you’re not wrong Darnell you’re
Not wrong with that but that forecast has changed as well throughout this week it is Florida it it changes it can change quickly and it can change drastically we saw what the players did you know what was that two or three years ago now so you’re not wrong in
Playing based on that forecast you’re absolutely right it would be correct to do a Thursday PM Friday amm favor I am just I am going with all the players that are good in the wind because except for Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday has wind in it if they have to go to
Monday so it it just any player that’s not good in the wind is just a non-starter for me that’s how I’m approaching it as opposed to trying to do a wave stack I’m just choosing not to play any player that’s anywhere questionable in the Wind so that’s how I’m attacking
It um B Hustler rated out well for me and he is very very low owned per both um per both sources I’m not in love with it the irons have been suspect par 3s aren’t great not the best driver of the golf ball I’m not in love with it but he is
Pretty unique he is your he is one of the unique options in the 8ks if you want a back bow Hustler and he should be pretty good in the wind being a Texas native for uh know it all too well yeah so um hadwin has played pretty well here
He’s a former champion at the vpar back in 17 or 18 I believe not in the best current form uh but getting getting quite a bit of attention per gab Source um I think it’s worth having time or two but I wouldn’t go crazy with it
Like I’m willing to to just Pony up the ownership and you know a couple hundred for Doug gim mad McNeely for me this I think is a slight overreaction to how well he played the players and he played it extremely well don’t get me wrong I think this is a slight overreaction in
Terms of his FNG GC rank cuz his irons are still not the best top 15 on the surface top top 10 in part 3es is great but really bad off the tea really really bad off the tea so got some concerns with McNeely fantasy National members are
Really really high on him I am I am not so in the 8ks again the Bold the Bold fate I have is Aaron Ry I will lose if Aaron Ry plays very well um this is just a full fade for me based on the ownership cuz I think he’ll be up in the
16 to 18% I’m going to use quite a bit of Keith Mitchell he did make the cut at the players and then bombed out over the weekend so um he’s in pretty good form CZ is fine it’s just a lot of ownership Doug gim I really like this
Week but that’s no shock there as everybody seems to like him um and hadwin could be interesting to throw in a time or two good and bad weather think you can Dink and duck down uh is that are you referring to McNeely um sure I mean I I just have more
Concerns he he played extremely well at the Players I I’ll give him that I just have some concerns as to um I want to see it again put it that way I want to see some consistency now that he’s back from injury moving into the upper
Sevens um M yeah moving to the up seven look Taylor mois is the defending Champion I know he’s not been in good uh good current form but there’s a lot to like here 5 I mean you know the irons are acceptable top 30 on the surface past five weeks it seems MCN
Um I can check that MC NE he’s at 80 81 let me fix The View okay yeah you’re right it was fairly middling at the at the cognizant but Mexico was strong wo I don’t remember him top 10 in the wo but yeah you’re right you’re right okay he’s in he’s in great
Form having said that I do worry with the irons the irons still aren’t there and this is this is a place where the irons you really have to be dialed in with your iron so I think that could be an issue but you have proven me wrong in terms of um his current
Form he’s in much better current form than I gave him credit for um yeah let’s see moving to the upper sevens like I said Taylor Moore defending Champion good putter on this surface generally as a as a grinder avoids bogeys so I do like Taylor Moore a little bit 10 and a half
Here 8% per uh gab Source I like it putam is kind of interesting because I don’t have a whole lot of um emphasis in off the tea if you think off the tea is going to play more than what I’ve got here here then don’t
Look at Andrew putam and you see the cor value is horrendous he is going to be pretty darn unique 9% and 7% I think it’s it’s uh worth a look I also kind of like Taylor Montgomery the irons are better right now because that was his knock last year
He came onto the onto the scene in the fall of 2022 and lit the PGA Tour on fire I mean he was top 15 and everything but his irons were real suspect he was doing it with the with the short game you see he is the number one putter on this surface
And how much we’ve emphasized putting this week I do like Taylor Montgomery having said that he does have some some ey sore statistics so it’s not without um not without some risk but I’m I’m going to believe in that putter on a course that really rewards uh top end
Putting uh he’s also very unique 7% and 6% so I like Taylor Montgomery I’m going to use him quite a bit um Lucas Glover 14% And 13.5% like look I understand the irons are good and the Putter’s been better but anytime you have a chalky Lucas Glover no thank you
I’m just out so that’s the second I can’t say it’s as bold as Aaron R that’s the second player I’ll lose to is if Lucas Glover plays well cuz I just I just don’t want any part of a chalky Lucas Glover um I’ve mentioned him like for seemingly weeks now but anytime it’s
Difficult I really like Ryan Fox and he shot he played really well Thursday at the players and then backed up on Friday to miss the cut on the number good drives game could be an issue but I don’t think the wind is going to be bothersome he’s he was top
10 or maybe top 15 in this field uh the last two years when it’s difficult relative to par I I understand the hesitation considering I’ve backed him a couple of times now and he’s not made the cut but I’m going to go right back to him I
Believe in the talent of the player Adam shank’s getting a lot of love probably because of the um course history he’s played it fairly well the irons are nowhere near where he was you know early on in the season last year par threes haven’t been good I’m out on Adam shank as
Well so in the sevens I’m going to use Taylor Moore he’s a little bit more popular than I would like but going use some Taylor Moore but my uniqueness in here I’m going to use some putam I’ll be using some Taylor Montgomery I didn’t talk about Sam Ryder
It’s okay he’s getting a he’s got he’s getting some attention though Sam Ryder 133% per fantasy National about eight or 9% per gab source so a little bit more um a little bit more attention than I would like but I think it’s fine I’m
Just going to go Ryan Fox again 2 and a half% and 3 and a half% and I’ll lose again if Ryan Fox doesn’t play well but the combination of a low price and I just believe in the talent of the player all right moving into the
6ks there’s a few players I do want to talk about for you all um I’ll mention Victor perie at 69 excellent irons in form right now uh he’s also been pretty good when it’s difficult so I do want to mention him he is garnering a little bit of a attention
Sure um seven any anywhere between seven and 8 and a half% i like Victor perie I also like Thomas dietre all of it around like the Putter and the short game cuz his irons haven’t been good but really really plays par 3es well plays the specific length of par fives
Well and he won’t take himself out of the hole so I do like Thomas diet Tre as well so in the upper sixes those two um Andrew Novak is somebody to maybe think about about although you see the fantasy national uh percent owned at near 12% if
He is indeed at 12% there’s no way I’m going to recommend him gab Source has him at 4% so if if you think he’s closer to that 8 to 10% no thank you uh that’s just too much but uh it is worth a look top 15 in irons top 20 on this surface
Also fourth on the length of these par so he has a lot going for him in the most important metrics that we are looking at this week not the best with a good drives and the off the te so if you think off the te is going to play a little bit more
Maybe Novak’s not your guy um Matt coocher I’ll mention because he has played just so well here and he just loves poet trivialis I particularly don’t like it but I figured I’d mention it if you want to look at course history take a look at Matthew neith but there
Was not a lot of things that lined up for him as you can see by my you know by my ranking uh he does not play well when it’s difficult he does not play well in the wind um you’re you’re playing Matthew n Smith all on the prior course
History um but the two players that I’m you know really really looking at in the bottom half of the sixes Grayson Sig number one par three player top 10 in irons good drives gained is is excellent and Ben Martin 2% Ben Martin fifth in my
Rankings top 30 top 30 top five yes the par fives have to be better there’s no doubt about that but then top 10 top 30 top 25 top 15 I just Ben Martin does not play well this week I will lose that is that is where I’m at with that so if
Aaron Ry does play well I’ll lose if Ben Martin does not play well I will lose I’ll also casually mention Michael Kim but he’s an analytical darling he’s the analytics always seem to really like him and you see that course value is not the greatest so I I figured I’d mention it
Kind of like coocher but not not in love with it considering for 100 more I’m going to use someone that’s fifth in my rankings in the five case not a whole lot here that I want to gravitate towards really maybe Justin low around the fact that his irons are pretty good Putter’s
Okay he doesn’t take himself out of the hole he he grinds relatively well for being a 5k but I’m trying to Bott him out at at Ben Martin but I figured I’d mention Justin lower um if you’re really to to quote pee dumpster diving there’s a look at the price
Board and the players that uh our fellow contestants seem to be gravitating towards and and potential pivots off of them let’s start looking at uh making some lineups here um we’re going to start with tiers for those who play tiers contests tier one is Xander s and Justin
Thomas I think it’s between these two uh I’m probably going to go Sam Burns just because I’m confident in his prior course history I he just loves inisbrook but I don’t think Xander’s a bad choice either they’re essentially the same per fantasy National now Xander is getting a whole lot more love per
Gabes source so because of that I think I’m going to go with Sam Burns and the fact that he’s just played well here so give me Sam Burns in tier one tier two spe Harmon cam young sunj and Tony fenale I mean again it’s probably between these two the most chalky options
Uh I’m gonna go with fenale I think he might be a little bit more unique than Brian Haron so give me f now in tier two but it’s pretty close tier three Nick Taylor B Keith Mitchell Caz and Eric Cole I’ll go Keith Mitchell I’m just a believer of Keith Mitchell
When it’s difficult and I think this is going to be really difficult this week it’s going to be Mitchell in tier three tier four Keegan Aaron Ry Doug gim Bo Hustler hadwin mcneel and Rogers pretty clear Doug gim no we have Sands or butts I know this has been pretty chalky so
Far um but I think these are just the be best plays so give me Doug gam tier four tier five seaka Taylor Moore putam olison Montgomery Todd and horel this is where I think I might get a little bit unique I do like Taylor Montgomery quite a bit I’m leaning Taylor Montgomery I
Think Taylor Mor’s a good play as well he’s the defending Champion putham could be interesting I am scared off by his lack of off the tea and the fact that he has played horribly at the vpar so give me Taylor Montgomery I think he’s a worthy speculation this week give me Taylor gy
In tier five lastly tier six Sam Stevens Dylan woo Ryan Moore Ben Martin Hayden Springer Joseph brand and Sh Kim I think it’s pretty clear where I’m going there so this tier TI construction goes Sam Burns Tony fenale tier three goes Keith Mitchell tier four goes Doug gim tier five TL
Montgomery tier six is Ben Martin all right let’s move to Classic and see how we can maneuver all of the chalk that is in our big gpps and figure out the best ways to combat them so if we’re going to try to make some of these chalky lineups that
Our fellow contestants seem to be building um I’m going to go with Xander even though I really like Xander this week I mean the fact that he is 37% per Gabe Source seems like a lot of people are going to gravitate to Xander and at the bottom even though they’re
Going into the 112 for for him now fantasy National is showing Novak and Damon at 12% but per gab Source I’m not seeing any anybody anybody approaching that the highest I see is 8% Joel Damon so instead let’s take uh let’s go up to Adam shank who is not as high on fantasy
National he’s 13% per Gabe source so they’re going to Adam shank Lucas Glover um in the upper Sevens perhaps a mcne a Taylor Moore maybe uh sep straa is at 15% per Gabe source so that’s a little bit um different than what fantasy National has but it does look like it’d be like McNeely which isn’t going to give them a whole lot of wiggle room at
All um it looks like the members at Fantasy National B also be going Sam Ryder U per gab Source Sam Ryder is only at seven but we’ll use the fantasy fantasy National ownerships here so Sam Ryder now they can go to like a McNeely uh Doug gim absolutely
Absolutely would be in this 87 Eric Cole not so much this would be like Aaron Ry if we drop down to MAV uh then you go up to 9,000 uh Christian B who who’s getting a lot of attention a lot of attention so you know you’re looking at about a 14% lineup
There um and that’s using Xander because uh Gabe Source has him at 37% pretty chalky uh shell here I would think you could obviously move some of these around maybe this is Doug gim and and Aaron Ry these two here could also be a uh a common combination there that’s you
Know right at 15% but shank and Glover little bit of Sam ryer that is where our fellow contestants are gravitating towards in the low in the low sevens um if we V uh make a variant of this let’s say they go Justin Thomas who’s at 22% for gab swords that gives that
Freeze them up a little bit to do more in the 9ks perhaps they go to a Tony fenale um but again it’s it’s going to be the same issue and the same players down here Adam shank and Lucas Glover uh maybe a McNeely uh Taylor Moore getting a little
Bit as well yeah that’s MAV so there’s another look at a at a lineup that’s perhaps maybe not touching the upper extremes of a Xander or Sam Burns they’re going JT maybe a Tony fenale or a Nick Taylor and then dropping down into the you know mid to low eights for
An Aaron R A Doug again MAV McNeely and then rounding out their lineup That Way so how are we going to combat all of that chalk well the first decision you have to ask is are you going to use a Xander Sam Burns if you are I’ve given you a few
Players that I think you’ll be able to to pull that off but let’s say you’re going to try and um not use the upper end of the of the price board if you’re not going to go to Xander or Sam Burns I really think you’re going to you’re going to build a
Pretty darn balanced lineup in the sense of perhaps you go like a Brian Harmon who I know is chalky but you’re going to gain a lot of uniqueness off of these two at least maybe a Brian Harmon again I really like Tony fenale this week that’s where I
Would start go with a Tony fenale we can look at a perhaps a Nick Taylor I don’t know how the community feels about about a minw Lee but Keith Mitchell who I’m extremely high on again this week air Cole could be interesting sez perhaps uh and then coming on down lower
Again I’m going to be using like a a Taylor Montgomery here bottom out we don’t even have to flirt with the with the 6ks you know perhaps you’re on a a Sam Ryder and Adam shank maybe you like Davis Thompson at 7,000 I’m not necessarily as high on
Him um but then that gives you 85 which is Aaron Ry the gim hadwin could be worth a time or two not getting a whole lot of love in fantasy National like this is looking like a fairly unique lineup probably duplicated a couple times in your big GP P’s but you know
Fenale one of the tournament favorites again I’m just extremely high on Keith Mitchell B Zen Ho’s been in fabulous form lately hadwin is a former Champion here Davis Thompson really really devours power fives which is what you have to take advantage of at inisbrook and the irons have been really really good
Lately I’m just I’m just concerned because he just generally doesn’t play well in the wind or when it’s difficult but it’s worthy worthy of a speculation I think and then Taylor Montgomery but the way I’ve been going about it this is these are this is not the kind of
Lineups I’ve been building this is one way you can go about it but the way I’ve been going about it I mean I’ve talked about it all night I’m just Ben Martin 6100 2% I don’t mind doubling up in the sixes either I’ve mentioned quite a few
Players I could go to Grayson Sig I’m not as in love with that that one but go something to the effect of Ben Martin and Andrew Novak Ben Martin and Thomas dietry Ben Martin and Victor perie really really like the ability to double up in the 6ks it’s it’s dangerous to do
It but the reason I’ve been doing it is I’ve just been getting greedy shley and burns just going Balls to the walls with it um finding my uniqueness down here which allows me to use the two most projected own players and the two players I’m most confident in obviously being one and two
In my rankings going to have to try to find some some price saving a little bit here uh you can do two mids the Taylor Montgomery and maybe a Brenan Todd I’m going to be using Ryan Fox just because I believe in the talent of the player
Again this could be Taylor Montgomery uh 78 eight is Taylor Moore Andrew putam might be worth a shot um but I’ll throw Taylor Moore into this like these are the kind of lineups that I’ve been building um pretty pretty darn sure I’m going to be unique
Throwing both of these two in here with the 6100 Ben Martin that uh that I’m just all in on and then rounding it out um as you see fit there is another way you can do it but this is the this is the lineup that I’ve or the shell of
A lineup that I’ve been doing the most there’s another way you can go about this and it and it revolves around the the same kind of Ben Martin at the bottom we’ll use a different player um perhaps we’ll go to a yeah let’s just do an Andrew
Novak I know per fantasy National he’s going to be more owned but per gab Source he’s he’s not he is sitting at uh 67 he’s sitting at 4 % so it doesn’t look like at least per gab Source uh many of our fellow contestants are dropping into the
Sixes but the other way you go about this is do this kind of kind of balanced minus one almost where you would go like a Justin Thomas or I’m not in love with a Jordan spe but that’s what you would do do like a Thomas or a spe I’m going
To start this with Brian Harmon and then move down to like Tony Fen now go to you can maybe do a Nick Taylor but I’ll drop down to a Keith Mitchell um Doug gim even though he’s you know popular um just fill in all of this up
In here instead of doing like two big names like Xander and burns try to fill it out with four or even five you can bring this off a little bit go like Harmon fenale Mitchell maybe come off a gim to a yeah throw in McNeely just cuz he’s in
He’s in good form right now 7200 Tran Fox like that’s going to show being more owned because of the Andrew Novak here but I’m pretty sure you’re looking at a pretty unique lineup um or at least a unique shell of a lineup um doing this kind of balanced
Minus two or or maybe super four if you want to call it that um but yeah that’s the way that’s the way I’ve been building my lineups is either going like extremely high at the top Xander Burns Xander maybe JT Sam Burns maybe JT or spe just getting real greedy at the top
Going double sixes and then rounding out you know the low and the mid sevens or doing this kind of like super four where you go like a Harmon fenale Taylor Mitchell bazan hoot you know some combination thereof hey good evening thanks for dropping the chat can you plug in gim
Harmon okay so Hayden Springer I know’s at 61 Doug gim is up here Brian Harmon uh B uh that’s Nick Taylor I think hosler is here yeah and then who’s the other one Taylor more yeah I mean I you’re probably looking at at something fairly unique you might get duplicated a little bit
Like Hayden Springer is going to be really unique this kind of fits into that that kind of shell of a lineup that I was just mentioning with that super four or or super five or balanced minus one if you will you go Harmon Taylor or fenale
You know gim I’m not there with Aaron Ry but you know perhaps you are him or hadwin mcne I’m not in love with Hustler but I don’t hate it um but yeah this is the exact kind of shell of a lineup I was just talking about I wouldn’t use
Springer I would use Ben Martin but um I don’t hate Hayden Springer by any means I’ve generated him in a few lineups I don’t know if I’ll end up using those lineups but I have generated some lineups with him I I I like the shell I like that I
Like the idea the concept of that lineup me personally I’d go maybe a couple of different places in it but I do like that shell quite a bit stick around for a couple minutes if there are any other questions um as you will see by my betting card
I’ve actually spent more time on March Madness this week I’ve got a pretty extensive betting card for March Madness this week but hopefully I’ve been able to provide you all with with some insights into the vpar championship uh get us on the right track as uh the players and the
Cognizant just didn’t go our way at least didn’t go my way um so hopefully we’re we’re going to get back on the right foot there so just to answer my own question I have actually spent more time uh with the brackets um my oneand done selection this week I’m going to
Take I’m going to play it safe sayfe I’m going to take Sam Burns I don’t uh had no idea Iowa state was balling like that I’m actually so you hear I don’t know if you heard it from anywhere else but you know come next week you can you
Can uh you can throw it uh throw it in my face but you heard it from me I’m actually picking South Dakota state to beat Iowa state that is my big upset I’m taking that 15 over a two um you know when I State wins by 40 you can jump
Into the show on Sunday night or Monday night and tell me I’m an idiot it’d be well worth it but that is that is the biggest upset that I have I am taking South Dakota State over Iowa State hey Gabe thanks for jumping to chat right at
The end of the show appreciate it uh I’ll be over in your in your chat here shortly U wrapping up the show here I’ll be interested to hear um you know the kind of direction that you’re going as I uh um I showed a couple of lineups that um that
Uh that I’m that I’m gravitating towards being pretty greedy um so I’ll be I’ll be interested to hear what you and and and chat says in your in your chat in your substack chat which again reminder if you haven’t subscribed to gabes article I highly suggest you do so it’s
Free to do and we’re going to continue the the DFS talk over there uh talk about Game Theory best pivots uh areas of the price board we’re we’re gravitating to to and staying away from um but I want to thank P Darnell Tony and Gabe for jumping in chat it’s much
Appreciated I want to thank everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing uh really appreciate it it helps me out when you all do that uh I love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics giving you a statistician and
Data analyst view of what he sees and trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process quick reminder that uh my betting cards will be out uh later on this evening along with my top player usage in the DFS contests um you
You can root you can root for Colorado I’m not going to say go Buffs uh my fandom is pretty clearly on display thanks again for all the support I enjoy interacting with with all of you let me know how your week goes for the bpar and how your brackets du uh throughout the
Weekend for all of the Wagers you have made this week for the vpar championship for all the DFS contests you play this week for the vpar championship for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
