Bet Xander Schauffele to WIN 2024 Valspar Championship? Golf Picks & PGA Predictions | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s ValsparChampionship on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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01:09 – Best Bets
09:50 – Course Preview
14:30 – Outright Bets
30:30 – One and Done Picks
35:30 – The Rest of the Best Bets

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorNickBretwisch #BlueWireVideo

Hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action networks golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is your 2024 valpar Championship betting preview alongside Spencer agar and Nick brwi I am Roberto oruo guys let’s get right into it Spencer you had a close call last week

With Ryan Harmon nearly taking the PLAYERS Championship Scotty sheffler whom you had the week before and won at the Arnold Palmer Invitational goes back back to back despite some nagging neck injuries last week congrats to Scotty and Scotty’s backers Spencer almost had two in a row let’s get back on track

This week what is your best bet after I believe you hit on chessen Hadley over Vincent Norman last week I I will say Roberto that was a pretty accurate cap there I I talked about that being miscut versus miscut Paradise of two players that it was really just a profile in

Norman that I was trying to take on and you know when chest Hadley comes in 90s something at place it doesn’t look great on the on the leaderboard but Norman did kind of exactly what I was anticipating finished outside the top one or outside

Of the top 130 there so I nice to get back on track in that and and I do want to say I want to preface this and Nick I know what you’re going to tell me I haven’t been kidnapped this isn’t a wild plea for help I’m gonna go with Davis

Thompson minus 110 over web Simpson this week all right fading web be a first on the podcast I’m exced Nick what is your best bet for the valbar championship this week I’m going with a rookie corn faery tour graduate Jacob Bridgeman top 40 plus 260 over there with our guys at bet

365 I really like that play and excited to hear your cap on that one in a moment I’m going with a similar bet for my best bet this week I’m going with another cor fairy tour graduate in Chandler Phillips playing in his sth PJ Tour event this

Week at plus 300 for a top 40 similar to Nick so before we get into those top 40 bets Spencer why are you fading your favorite son or maybe father web Simpson this week so I don’t necessarily think and this isn’t the Hadley versus Norman play

By any means like you’re going to hear me talk about Davis Thompson a lot during this tournament I don’t if he necessarily has the most prototypical head-to-head profile my sheet did have somewhat troubling trajectory for him when I compared safety versus upside all that really is going to mean that the

High-end numbers in my model ended up loving his ability to Skyrocket up the leaderboard however there’s a downside that’s going to enter the mix because of some of that Boomer bus nature that he possessed um I still found there to be a considerable Edge mostly because of the

Dislike that I had for web Simpson I think there’s this usual strength that he had in his prime that we don’t necessarily have anymore for him and that troubles me to give that answer on a podcast but um you know I’m not going to come on here and completely [ __ ] on

Him like it wasn’t all bad my math did uncover this very quality return with the projected total driving I think that helps him remove one issue from the equation but I guess for me when I got deeper into the handicapping process of this wager he graded as one of the top

Fade candidates on the board because of all the red flags that kept coming up where I couldn’t find a reason to discount them in any fashion and I’ll talk about why my model disliked them and then just even in the areas where I was trying to find a reason to like him

And I mean news flash I guess everybody listening this is a weekly occurrence on my model of how can I make web Simpson be good inside of my sheet this week but uh my model ranked them 87th in weight of proximity for copperhead 8 first when considering it with those more impactful

Shots from 150 plus yards he was 13 third one combining green and regulation percentage proximity and then the around the green category into one stat that for me is where I want to see if web’s lack of approach play could be salvaged in a different perspective which

Obviously it wasn’t if I ended up taking this approach it was 113th for me in scrambling 107 102nd sorry uh for weighted Strokes gain total that just really plummed this this outlook for me for a player who I’m going to say unfortunately is on the wrong side of

His career right now um You didn’t hear this from me on the show for anybody that asks this is me secretly talking about web I guess this is my version of taking him behind the wood shed and doing it in a very public podcast here

At action but um it pains me to go this route you guys like this is a player that for two years I’ve made every excuse for and some of the total driving numbers do look good here but um combination of how much I like Thompson’s upside and just the floor

That I had here with Webb with a lot of those scrambling and proximity numbers couldn’t get there I think the market might be a little bit too high on him this week didn’t think we would start with with Spencer fading web Simpson but here we are hopefully it pays off this week

Nick why are you backing Jacob Bridgeman for plus 260 in the top 40 market for Me overall it’s uh again most of my answers on the show are usually just number grabs it hasn’t been the best run so far we did get Benjamin Mark Martin to make

The cut last week so I was pretty excited about that but overall uh Bridgeman grades out to me as one of the safer plays out of the Corn fairy tour guys and my number was more proper around the 185 number so to get plus 260

Is just something I I can’t pass up so anytime I get that much value it will be my best bet of the week um Bridgeman has been in relatively good form especially with the iron play again it’s very very limited data he’s a guy like Chandler Phillips that we were talking about

Prior to the show is not going to W you with the driver he should hit a lot of Fairways his scrambling has been superb so far in his 6pj tour events um we’ve seen a ton of spiking with the putter both On poana and On The Bermuda at Palm

Beaches there so um I just think he’s a really good player kind of like when Spencer and I started talking about his boy Davis Thompson last year just overall the guy’s a good player grades really well for me in the expected Strokes gained on the approach kind of

The the weighted approach that Spencer mentioned where I did have web Simpson 88th so I like to see that I’m very similar to Spencer there but overall just a number grab for a guy that I think is yet to show his true upside but this

Guy was a walking top 20 in the corn fairy tour so you get that long of a number in this week of a field I’ll take that all day long I I just want to add one note to that Nick and I think that’s like with bet 365 here that that number

Is about 35 points better than the rest of the market so y uh really enticing price there cuz I agreed with you like I I think in that plus 180 plus 185 range is probably proper value for this ticket gentlemen we have our first inpod play of the podcast because I am

Officially tailing the Jacob Bridgeman top 40 play you guys laid out why there’s so much value there uh given the prices in the market and then the cap itself I think it makes a ton of sense I’m I’m hopping on the bridg and train this week and in a somewhat similar bet

I really like Chandler Phillips for a top 40 this week at plus 300 similar to to what Nick said Chandler Phillips is a guy who doesn’t hit the ball super long he the the weakest part of his game is his driver and at a course like Copperhead this

Week at inisbrook Resort where there are tons of forced layups it’s a relatively shorter course there are five par threes all of that led me to Chandler Phillips because he’s a pretty strong approach player 21st in this field in Strokes gain approach well above the PJ tour

Average and yes a smaller sample size especially because he doesn’t have that many starts it’s just a seventh on tour of the Season he’s 32 in Strokes gain around the green and historically this tournament has been won between 10 and 17 under par so 40th Place let’s say if

He just shoots under par that might be good enough for 40th Place this week and he doesn’t need to make a ton of birdies so I like that he’s also 13th in par three scoring average and like we said five par 3es it’s going to be an

Emphasis this week as well we’ve got limited data from him and I just think we haven’t played that many courses he hasn’t played that many courses that fit his game coming off a miscut at the Puerto Rico open which I’m pretty much going to throw out he had a top 25 at

The Mexico open at viant which I didn’t think it was a great fit for him but he was pretty strong on approach there nearly made the cut at the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches withdrew he was pretty close to the number hit one in the water and then didn’t want have

To come out the next morning to finish up his round he was going to miss the cut so he withdrew there but he gained nearly three Strokes per round on approach so really strong numbers on approach there and I think that is is the key to this cap he is a good

Approach player who gets hurt by having to hit the ball from way farther out than most of his uh peers because of his driving and because of that I think there’s some value here we’ve got a limited sample size of his starts and I really think the only other true Club

Down courses that he’s played are at the cognizant and the Sony Open one of them he nearly made the cut the other one he did didn’t top 40 NE of those he has some top 25s at some other courses I think this is a good chance toop on him

Before there can be a real adjustment for what his game is I like that the around the green play has been really solid and between that the approach play and the lack of his driver mitigating his him off the tea I think it’s a good

Chance for him to finish in the top 40 don’t think he can win this week but I think he is a relatively safe golfer gentlemen as mentioned we are playing this week in the Tampa Bay area at inis at inisbrook Resort at the Copper Head course Spencer why don’t you you get the

First crack at breaking down the course this week so I always find Copperhead to be extremely interesting from a data perspective we’ve gotten these very correlated answers for Success at the top when you look at Sam Burns and Paul Casey going back to back over the past five years yet I think

When you actually dive into the actual returns past that answer it’s told this completely different story regarding the predictive nature of the course since it consistently ranks near the bottom of all V uses for rollover predictability maybe part of that comes down to the different iterations of the

Contest that we’ve gotten over the years like at its most accessible we’re looking at a 17 under par sort of winner we’ve gotten that a handful of years at its most complicated this can very easily slip into that single digit range uh part of that because of the always

Present danger you have 74 bunkers nine holes that are going to feature some semblance of water I do think most people that look at the scorecard of the yardage that you get on the scorecard of 7,340 yards you see this relatively straightforward layout I think the

Number one takeaway for a lot of people becomes this te green Acumen at its core but uh there are many more extreme factors of the course that are really only shown when you take a deeper dive into these Force layups the added long iron distance is going to get heightened

Because the driver gets taken out of everyone’s hands in the field that’s going to be one of the reasons over 67% of shots occur from 150 plus yards we also get more of that compact off the T return in general with 24 yard wide Fairways and 3in thick rough that’s

Going to convolute this process further you know I hate giving this answer because I don’t think it’s the most exciting thing to talk about when handicapping a tournament but for me when I built this the players that seemed to produce best were the ones that could gain Strokes total and that’s

Kind of how I built my card and like I understand that means good golfers are going to play well this week like why are we even having this conversation if just the players that gain the most Strokes are the ones that come to the top of my model and that’s not exactly

What I’m saying like there are so many different recalculations that I take within those Strokes gain areas for how I’m going to differentiate my process I I I take the generic Strokes gain off the t- returns and I’m going to mold it into what I think for copperhead I’m

Going to use a lot of those weighted proximity numbers I’m G to find similar green complexes which I will say and I haven’t heard this talked about a lot in the space so I’m curious to hear your guys’s thoughts I thought putting returns were very important here like I

See everybody devaluing that process but when you look at historical Trends there’s about a 4% increase uh here with the dispersion of scoring compared to an average track on tour so I thought putting was a very intriguing metric to throw into my model and that’s kind of

How I’m going to get unique but that very generic stance that I have taken is one of the reasons why I hit Sam Burns two years ago and then we were all on t Mo last year when he won so like throw Taylor Mo into that mix with it so it’s

Been back-to-back wins for me I I don’t think sometimes you need to convolute the process as much as you actually think for some of these tournaments so um there’s that redistribution that I’m taking but I don’t think there’s anything like completely out of the normal from those answers that I’ve

Given I love it I’m with you on the pting that’s sort of interrupt there Roberto but I was very high on putting myself so I’m I’m happy that you said that CU that’s something usually no one ever really talks about especially when it you know everybody names this a ball

Striker’s course and no one really talks about putting so yeah I’m in yeah last year Taylor Moore great putter putted really well Adam shank putted the lights out uh nearly won last year as well had he not gone behind the tree on the 72

Hole t- shot which we were all a big fan of unfortunately for shank uh he could have won this week the greens are once again just like last week at TBC Sawgrass they are Bermudagrass greens the Bermudagrass is dormant so they overseed with po trivialis which is why

It’s green there instead of brown uh or grayish and so another poet trivialis Bermuda putting surface this week Spencer um you mentioned the approach play from 150 plus yards um I also weighed Strokes gain around the green because of the high because of the low greens and regulation percentage here um and then

Bogy avoidance was a big one for me even though Chandler Phillips didn’t perform that well in that category um Spencer Chandler Phillips is not on my outright betting card but who is on your outright betting card this week I’m going to preface this at the very start a lot of these numbers have

Moved and we can talk about where I got it where the new number is at right now I think that’s the difficult thing when you record a show on on Tuesday here and sometimes just these these prices deviate away from where we got them so

Um I kind of tend to believe that the top of this board shrunk down in value too much which is kind of why that 50 to 100 to one range had a lot of guys like Doug gim Aaron Ry Adam hadwin and I’ll talk about them in a second that like

They had value at those prices unfortunately those numbers are not necessarily there but uh I started my card with sunj M27 to1 you can still get that at 28 to1 so for all the negative talk about numbers moving in One Direction there’s better price on there

On sunj if you really do shop around IM has massively improved some of this early season data he’s averaged 4.8 Strokes T to Green over his past two starts that’s a total that eclipsed the negative 1.38 Strokes he gained on average during the previous five times

He had teed it up it’s obviously going to take more of an increased return with the putter if we want to reach the whole upside of that answer but you know Roberto you talked about this of this being a Bermuda course with over seating that takes place here I know everybody

Always looks at a guy like sunj and says Bermuda is the natural spot for him where the putter gets better and that answer is true but also on these Bermuda courses where it gets overseed he was one of the big climbers in my model and projected Strokes gain putting here at

Similar green complexes so thought it was a nice byy low spot where gamblers aren’t going to necessarily want to pay these sub 30 to1 prices and I thought here at 27 or 28 to one like I had this proper at 21 to1 so I I thought there

Was a lot of meat still left on this bone to consider him um I took Doug gim at 55 to1 I believe the best in the space right now is 50 to1 I had 40 to one proper so there’s still a little bit value there I think there’s an argument

To be made and I mean Nick even made this joke as he came in here like before we actually started talking maybe a top 20 bet makes more sense for him just because of the general lack of upside but this was a very similar return that

I got from Taylor Moore last year when I dove into this profile that more or less lacked that General upside I was looking for but then pop massively with the metrics here for copperhead specifically so gims par five scoring is GNA have to do a lot better than usual if he wants

To win that’s the Taylor Mo answer where he de demolished these locations I think he went seven under last year I believe to end up shooting himself up the leaderboard uh and giv him giving himself the win so gim’s going to have to provide a very similar result to get

There but I think may be one of those situations where it’s just right course right time right form for a player that does have some par five scoring ability if he can put the pieces together I took Aaron Ry at 60 to1 55 to1 is going to be

Your best value there very similar answer to Gim where there is still value in that number for me uh 13th in my model for projected scoring at valpar 17th for weight of proximity and he’s found himself gaining with his irons in five of seven and with the driver in 10

Of 12 I think there’s a genuine reason guys why Ry was one of the significant Movers On The Board last week at the players didn’t necessarily get that finish that you would want with the 35th but better course for him here weaker field better overall returns for me in

Weighted scoring I thought 60 to1 or 55 now was a good value I took hadwin at 60 to1 that’s now 43 to1 I don’t want to spend too much time on that because I don’t think 43 to1 is value anymore I had 50 to1 as the proper price there it

Was one of those things where the upside numbers loved him the downside numbers really placed him into this different thing I think in outright bet you can still take on that risk but um different bet here at 43 to one than it would be 60 and then I rounded out my card with

Davis Thompson 100 to one just like hadwin Thompson’s profile isn’t going to be perfect for safety markets but the upside that he possessed delivered top 20 after top 20 in my model from a statistical Outlook every single time that I ran it so there are a lot of

Golfers and we talk about them quite a bit ludvig oberg Cameron young Cameron Davis I’m starting to think that Davis Thompson delivers a very similar answer here Club down courses are better for him even though he has all the natural length that you would want I think his

Ball striking ability works when you take driver out of his hands in a lot of these situations so um if the market wants to move the other way and that’s one of the reasons why I bet him against Webb and I’m kind of just looking for different ways to get exposure but the

Market wants to move the other way and is not respecting the upside here I’m G to make this 100 to one bet I think you can even get 110 to one now realizing that the floor is very low and he may miss the cup but for a particular market

Like this I want all the upside I can find yeah Davis Thompson gained on approach in all seven tournaments so far in 2024 Nick who is on your outright betting card this week at the valbar championship all right so this was a tough tough subject here I had to you

Know consult to a Spen earlier in the day when I was finishing up my card but I started with oxe batia at 85 to1 and then just because I already you know took him in the top 40 Market I had to take Bridgeman to win at 300 to one I

Thought that number was I don’t it’s hard to even say because we’re still talking about like a tenth of a decimal and implied probability edge here but should have probably been closer to 200 one in my opinion so I did sprinkle a little bit on Bridgeman but that left me

With enough to take a bite at Xander at a to one or take three guys in the the mid2 range so it was tough I wanted to go with Xander I hate to have that much exposure just on one guy in the outright Market um especially like it’s been

Until now this year that I’ve actually had an edge on someone shorter than 10 to one so with Scotty I’ve always had him you know a tenth of a decimal over his implied probability in the market but for Xander shle I have at 7 and a half

To one and I saw m or [ __ ] I can’t say their name I saw 8 to one in the market was very close to punching it but after talking with Spencer we went back to one of our our favorite guys to bet on um

Tony feno is one of them I will just get that out of the way get that off my chest at 28 to1 on bet 365 i’ followed Spencer on sunj M I don’t know if I love the price but if he was just in any bit

Of form outside of just the players I feel like that’s a number that’s probably right around the 18 to1 in a week especially in this field uh Cameron young was someone that surprised me similar like exact reason that Spencer talked about Davis Thompson the club

Down spot I think that’s where I want to pick on Cameron young especially with these longer irons that he absolutely Stripes he grades second in my expected Strokes gained on approach this week number one being Tony feno number three being Xander shafley number five also being Doug in so um pretty close to

Everything Spencer said right now um and then my last Kai here was Chan Kim at 2001 just because I love Chan Kim and I think that if there’s any course for him to kind of make a run and with a water downfield to still get a number that we

Pretty much see Chan came at every week I’ll roll the dice here but yeah so it’s basically to Xander or not to Xander and if I not don’t do it then I could fit in sanj Tony and Cameron young which I think have plenty of upside to run down

Xander especially when Xander really didn’t look very good swinging the ball the golf club on Sunday it seems like he’s kind of in between a swing change he was talking about a little bit on radio today like just going to the range trying to find his his right swing and I

Don’t know if he’s not 100% right I know his stroke SK metrics across the board are through the roof I’ll still roll the dice on a guy like Tony F now Cameron young or sunj M getting back into Elite Form and running him down here I thought the Tony fow and cam

Young picks in the outright Market are two that I’m very strongly considering because I do have room on my card and I really like their approach numbers over the last they’re fantastic two months and and one last thing sorry again to cut you off but we talked about it last

Week and you were dead on with Tony fow going back to like the toe down like the the flush putter on the ground he gain Strokes putting it’s been what was the last tournament he even gain Strokes putting on it I guess a little bit the

Mexico open where he did make the change and other than that the putter has been atrocious for damn near near full calendar year right now so Props you on finding that and again that’s something I would like to build on because we know the ball striking is damn near second

And none on the PGA tour I guess besides scottty sheffler of course but other than that feno was absolutely striping the ball yeah fown gain Strokes throughout last week except for off the te he must have hit some uh water penalties there when he finished T45 I’m

Very intrigued by fow and Cameron young I can pretty much guarantee I’m going to add one of them uh just depends on the numbers that I can find but I know both are in the 30 to1 range throughout the market so very intrigued by those Chan

Kim also catches my eye uh I have played him throughout on DFS this season very bullish on him because of the long irons and I think this is spot to play him I don’t know if I can bet him outright but at plus 210 in Top Market I’m very

Intrigued I do think there is he should have a shorter number than he does in the outright Market too so I mean maybe I will bet him um that is that Spencer would you say that’s the same thing for for Chan is probably the best to go like

The top 40 because he has been playing incredibly safe I worry about his scrambling a little bit here if he does Miss a fairway does Miss a green in regulation his short game is certainly like second half of the field I’d say here in the putter has always been

Sketchy although it’s been pretty good this year um so that I was you know pretty happy to hear that Spencer is really waiting putting he as heavy as I am if not probably heavier from the sounds of it so that’s my my only concern with him yeah I I think um when

You look at a player that’s usually let’s just say a fringe top 30 so of overall rank which is going to be a really good answer here for a name like Chan Kim but you have that negative movement for upside but the safety numbers get better that’s typically

Where I want to find my top 40 sort of bets versus either betting them in the outright Market or even pushing them up much further than that range I mean I think you could probably go a little bit higher than a top 40 if you wanted to

Get more aggressive there into like a top 30 but I do think there’s a threshold cut off at some point where he becomes less value as we start pushing this up the board more all right you you made the the case for it I’m going to

Add a second inod play Chan Kim plus 210 or top 40 at our sponsor bet 365 looking at Spencer sheet right here he ranks second in this field in birdie or better percentage I know he hasn’t played the toughest golf courses not being on the Signature Events so the data is a little

Bit skewed there but he’s also 17th in overall Bo bogey avoidance and in the top 20 for weighted scrambling so like we said he’s playing some easier courses than some of the other guys but that is promising and I know that on a tough Golf Course where you’re can hit

Some longer irons this is a guy that I want on my side so I’m gonna add him uh but getting into my outright card I started it with Brian Harmon at 25 to1 on Monday morning I love how he’s just absolutely striping the ball right now his approach play has been really strong

And people have been betting Harmon for years because he has the strong putting and the strong approach play but looking at his data golf profile the little spider chart I love looking at um this is his best year ever uh his best form Ever his putting and approach play are

At the best they’ve ever been his short game is awesome he’s very accurate as he always has been and it feels like that driver is on a string it’s just not as long of a string as the other golfers off the tea but that’s not going to be a

Penalty here as much it is as it is at normal courses and we saw that last week at TPC Saw Grass in a course that I don’t think is too dissimilar although there’s much less visual intimidation with this not being a PCH Golf Course um I really like Brian Haron and so I

Punch ticket on him at 25 to1 I also punched ticket on Doug gim for the same reasons as Spenser and then I also have Victor Perez at 100 to one I backed him at the Puerto Rico open we mentioned him on the Pod he was one stroke back of the winner there

He has been playing some really solid golf lately looking at his profile he has gained on approach in every single start so far this season on the PGA tour the problem was his first three starts he was horrific with the putter uh which led to only one made cut but since then

16th at the cognizant in the Palm Beaches then like we said a T3 in Puerto Rico uh just two strokes back or sorry one stroke behind uh Garnett and Barnes who went into a playoff and he’s a guy who’s been around for a while has a ton

Of pedigree I think he hasn’t really played up to that talent and I feel like right now he’s finally scratching the surface of his potential I think it’s a good chance to catch in good form in a lesser field at a course where he can leverage that approach play and if we

Get a putter that isn’t as cold as it was to start the season perhaps the switch away from the poana over to the Bermuda poet trivialis here in Florida does him some good after he gain Strokes putting at the Palm Beaches so I took a

Chance at him 100 to one I think he’s somebody whom I’d like to play in more of a safety market so maybe a top 40 I know he’s plus 130 there if I can find a match up on him that’s something that I’m intrigued intrigued by so far this

Week already got a couple top 40 bets so I don’t want to be too exposed to that market so I’m going to keep an eye on that but I am VI I am bullish on Victor Perez especially uh this week and we’ll see if he plays the next couple weeks as

Well going into Texas that’s all for my outright card I’m very close to adding one of Cameron young or Tony fow because I think those guys in their long Ron play are a great fit this week and you could make an argument that those guys

Should be 20 to1 I think in this field so I’m very intrigued by those guys um before we get into our one anddone conversation gentlemen wanted to give a reminder that the podcast is presented by North Carolina’s newest sports book bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary

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Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right gentlemen we have been laped in one and done with Scotty Sheffer winning in backtack weeks so it’s getting tough for us I’m pulling up the leaderboard here in our 15 man pool Nick is in fourth should have taken

Scotty I don’t know what I was doing getting cute it looked great on Thursday though I was already Victory lap and Rory to you guys that’s my move though I always call it early that’s just what I do Tex to us when he was on the fifth or

Sixth hole and at 7 under bar and then he hits it in the water and then has that 30 minute conversation with his playing Partners on the seventh hole um right on Q write that stuff but a win this week could put you back in first

Place uh so you’re in you’re in fourth I’m in sixth you’re 300 Grand ahead of me Spencer is in 10th a bit of a ways behind us Nick I’ll let you have the floor who are you considering this week and or do you have somebody that you

Think you’re going to lock in all right so I have two guys one’s chalk I think everybody’s going to play him and I think that’s why I probably have to go the other way I think it’s just the contrarian lifestyle that I like to live in this uh this space Brian Harman

Sitting there perfect horse fit not going to miss a fairway irons could not be in a better spot I am not afraid of him winning an elevated event you know my thoughts on Harmon so like I feel like this is a great spot to use

Him having said that I don’t think a lot of people are going to play Cameron young and I you know I I don’t know if he’s goingon to get his first win on the PJ tour at a elevated event so I feel like that’s a really good spot for him

And everybody that has guys around there I don’t know maybe people go to Nick Taylor honorable mention sjm right now I’m leaning Cameron young just to get different I am leaning Sam Burns because I looked at it earlier this week I think like seven of our 15 players have

Already used Sam Burns so even though ax didn’t I he’s going to be chalky this week but I think you did that was a good that was a good week for him um even though he’s going to be chalky this week I know that in our small pool not a ton

Of people have them including a few guys at the top so I’m very much considering the course for the horse the horse for the course this week I’m also considering I was considering Brian Haron until I realized I use him at Sony so that’s not an option for me I am I

Was also considering phenow and Cameron young but I’ve already also used fow so for me it’s probably gonna be Sam Burns or Cameron young but I’m very much leaning toward Sam Burns Spencer what are your thoughts on one and done this week this is the same answer I keep giving

Every single week it’s like have you seen those like Tik Tok videos where they put like six different drinks out and it’s the blind like can you put it in the right spot like there’s a Pepsi a Coke a Sprite and people try to match it correctly I feel

Like I have done this the entire season where I have not gotten one pick correct and I keep putting everything in the wrong spots and I I use Scotty in the first tournament I use Brian in the second tournament with you Roberto at Sony I you sunj somewhere that was not correct

Maybe the American Express or something like it has just been I I have no players left to use of the names that I ideally would like to go to I probably would have played Cameron young and maybe this is like overthinking the game theory answer here because I don’t want

To take I mean I mean In fairness everybody’s in front of me right now so I don’t know why I’m worried about Nick necessarily like comment on our picks at this point cuz you’re out of it yeah I mean well I mean like what what is what

Is a million dollars going to do when Scotty earned $8.5 million in half the league ended up putting him in one of the two spots like that’s that’s not a good answer last week I don’t know what I was thinking I think it’s the volatility of the course like I mean I

Understand why you didn’t go that route to want to save him somewhere else it unfortunately backfired but I I don’t know what to do if you’re taking Cameron young and Roberto’s taking Sam Burns I don’t necessarily Love Burns this week but he does have the course history here I think I’m going

Sunj this see this is you bluffing me again we’ve already played this and all of a sudden I end up on oberg and and then we both play him didn’t you both use sunj already or just Spencer just Spencer I don’t think I’ve used him Spencer you used him at

Where I used them I guarantee you I used them somewhere I think I used them at I I want to say the American Express when he came 25th because I got like 60 something thousand and then he started just finishing 60th or missing cut so

You broke sjm so that’s good I will try to bring him back to life this week I’m locking it in live on the air I got my phone right here sunj m is my guy then then based off of that answer I’ll probably say Cameron young and I think

As a second pick I do think Aaron Ry is intriguing I was thinking about like going way down the board like that like do you think people would actually play Doug gam Aaron Ry I think has a little bit more used R’s got more win Equity I like that

Pick I I I think like moving forward and this is my pitch on air we got to make this a two or three pick contest every single week this one pick contest I’m 10 for 10 and made cuts and I’m in last place in the contest this is not

Fun SP behind you but yes that is frustrating um Gentlemen let’s get to the rest of our betting cards we mentioned Our Best Bets a few other top 40s our outright picks Spencer what else is on your card this week at the valpar championship so Aaron Ry 44th or better

Over at bet 365 at minus10 I thought that was a very intriguing price for where my model had this price um you know I think in general these placement markets have really become the value’s gone and we talk about this most weeks and and I think even if you

Look at any of our cards with the way that we’re trying to do this with Chandler Phillips or Bridgeman or I’ll get to I also have Bridgeman but like any of these names we’re trying to take some of these guys further down the list

Hit them at two or three to one for a top 40 so I think that’s where the value will be found right now thought RI at 44th or better was kind of the one way to try to get unique there I did take Justin low for a top 40 at plus 240 I

ALS o have that Jacob Bridgeman ticket as a top 40 at plus 260 over at bet 365 so uh those two in particular in the top 40 Market those were the two best values that I had this week I like those plays we’re all on Bridgeman so let’s go Jacob Nick what

Else you got on your card this week uh that is it Spencer touched it the only other play that I have in the placement Market is Justin low at plus 240 yeah he grades 39th in my expected stroke G on approach rolling the rock pretty well

And having the best short game here on his uh I guess semi new PJ tour career so good value there I would have priced that one closer to like plus 175 so I will take that value all day long yep that’s exactly what I had as the proper

Price I am 41st overall in weight of proximity he climbs to 15th overall when we look just from this 150 plus range all right I’m going to tell that one too um love when you you guys are both in agreement with such strong Edge on projection so let me see if I can

Find that one in the plus 200 or better range I know you got it plus 240 Nick so I like that um I think we’ve touched on everything so far this week gentlemen I wanted to ask you a quick Master’s question uh we don’t have any more Signature Events between this week and

Between now and the masters with the players in the rearview mirror have you guys punched any tickets for the Masters or and or have you looked at any markets so far or just off the top of your head is there anybody that you want to bet in

The Masters I know the field isn’t 100% uh locked in yet I mean I guess I appreciate Rory playing so badly most of these weeks to try to push me not to bet him at austa for the 10th straight time and lose money in that fashion I I don’t have an

Outright ticket right now you know as crazy as this answer would be I I think if you could have gotten Scotty a month ago that’s probably the time that would have been perfect to jump in and unfortunately now I’ve seen him more in that like five to one range um which is

Going to be unedible at that price more likely than not I haven’t run numbers yet but thing to note there it is a limited field contest where the bottom of the board there is extremely bad with past champions that come in so um you’re going to have a lot of

Of money towards that top there where these prices are going to look gross on the board just naturally based off of you know there’s 18 to plus players we’ll call it that probably have like a legitimate chance to win that tournament and then um most of those other names are those Fringe

Guys who kind of work their way in but there’s a reason why Augusta has the most course history predictive nature of any course that there is uh typically you can run about five or six categories and you you I do this every single year and if a player doesn’t fit in that

Range uh they don’t win the contest so I I’ll probably write something about that for Action as we get a little bit closer here but uh nothing for me right now Nick anything that stands out to you about Augusta National three or four weeks out I mean I think at this point

It’s probably Scotties to lose again right so maybe we can get an inflated number I don’t think we’re gonna get an inflated number on John ROM and I don’t want to talk live you know it’s not really our thing but Dustin Johnson was someone I was really interested in last year there

And his ball striking was fantastic he just could not make a putt and His short game was terrible historically that is not an issue with him so if we can get like I don’t know I would probably price him in the trying to like run numbers as we

Speak if we can get him like 40 to one I think I would roll the dice with Dustin Johnson I still think that that’s he’ll probably just because name brand value they’ll probably put him in like the mid-30s but if there’s a 40 to one I I

Think I’d go with Dustin Johnson I have like it’s it’s a big name tournament for me and again like Spencer said course history means so much there as much as I do not love course history there it does so I don’t think I’m going to fall into

All the walking Neeman love that seems to be happening over the market the past couple weeks I think his price will be inflated but if Dustin Johnson kind of comes in there as a sleeper that no one’s talking about him I feel like that’d be really good spot for a guy

Like that obviously again without Scotty but yeah I I agree 40 to1 sounds like a good price on the surface there I I guess I have a question for you Nick um not that we want to talk a ton about live and everything that goes into that

But that’s one of the problems I think when I put my model together for all these Majors is that there’s just such a limited sample size of data from recent returns that you’re going to find from a statistical perspective how are you treating that um when you go with a

Person like Dustin Johnson are you using long-term historical data that you have on him and throwing it into the model yeah it’s it all long-term data for me and then obviously whatever we have from the recent Majors which again if you’re using Dustin Johnson he was Dreadful at

The Open Championship but more of just kind of a gut feel like he has been good on Liv I guess this season not as of late but he did win in Las Vegas in in February and that’s probably even the course you didn’t really need to bomb it

But um yeah it it’d be all long-term data for me and then course history is going to be a very very heavy weight obviously the heaviest that will ever push it in in a model throughout the golf season so that’s kind of just like feeling out how his current form is I

Don’t think I’ll watch any of the of the live stuff but if he’s not finishing outside the top 20 on a weekly basis like we kind of saw when cam Smith obviously won the Open Championship went out there and just said he didn’t care about his golf game and it reflected in

His you know how he was doing on the leaderboards there so I I’ll look a little bit at that but yeah yeah 35 to1 right now seems to be the consensus number on Dustin maybe maybe John R can make a and get sub 10 I I don’t know but

I would love to see duset at 40 to1 range I think he’s got way more win Equity unfortunately than a guy I bet every single week of Tony Fe now yeah I mean I think that’s a probably natural answer of a legitimate multi-time major winner versus player in F out that the

Numbers look great and just doesn’t seem to ever get across the Finish Line I like we’ll talk about this more and we won’t spend too much longer on this Augusta segment but like I do think the wide openen layout of this facility really helps the players like Jordan spe

That’s why he has the course history the that number is going to sink just because it’s Jordan spe at Augusta I don’t know what the price is right now if one of you guys have it you guys can chime in but I I do think that for some

Of these live golfers like a Cameron Smith becomes intriguing um if that number Falls far enough just because of the out of sight out of mind sort of situation with him yeah Jord right around that 18 to 22 range depending on what book you’re looking at it’s going

To be a little too shallow there but I’m seeing speed at 20 to1 and Smith at 25 to1 on our sponsor bet 365 one thing keep in mind is that normally the week of the Masters they will lengthen the odds a little bit so you’ll get some

Sure better odds the week of the Masters than before just because people have been piling on uh for months now since this Market has been open so the value has kind of been sapped and then they don’t want as much uh as much exposure right now on some of these guys until

They get a better picture of the project in the week so if it’s if there’s somebody like Dustin Johnson who we can find in the market 36 to1 you want 40 to1 I’d say wait you can probably get 4501 the week of the Masters uh I had a

Couple guys that I was thinking of this past weekend as guys who didn’t necessarily had the best course course fit at TBC sass have played well s deala came to mind and Spencer you bring up Jordan Speed I think s’s best comp is Jordan SP I don’t think he has quite as

Much upside as Prime Jordan SP the approach numbers aren’t quite there but I love the short game prowess and the putting that he has he does have the ability to spike on approach as well and the driver is crazy just like Jordan spe if you saw any of this week’s tournament

There was a delay on Sunday I believe when sa hit the gala on the ninth hole his drive way left and there was nowhere for him to take an unplayable so he had to just go back to the te um people were saying they’ve never seen anybody hit

The ball there well clearly you didn’t follow me while I was an intern playing TV s because I’ve been over there um but anyways sahit is somebody whom I’m incredibly bullish on for that specific course because of those wider Fairways that will help him with the driver

Although this week him saying yeah I’m just going to be spraying it I think that’s just part of how my game is wasn’t the most reassuring thing but top 10 there last year with the Ninth Place I had him in one and done at the Sentry

Because I thought it was a similar kind of course where the fairways help him out he finished second there this year so I really like sah and if you’re gon to beat Scotty doing what he does where he’s not going to make many Bogies the whole week you’re going to have to have

Some putting upside and I think he fits that mold as does a Jordan spe as does a Cameron Smith uh I was looking around couldn’t find anything better than 55 to one on South right now I’ve got at 100 to one from last uh summer so that’s

Going to be great until the Thursday of the Masters uh unless he goes low then but I got him I’m when I’m betting these major championships I want to bet on younger guys who have the ability to hit some upside that isn’t quite there yet

So if you wanted to bet waen nean don’t do it right now at 30 to1 should have done it before the live run um but it’s tough to do with W nean because you didn’t even know if he was gonna make the tournament so I don’t even depending

On your book you might have gotten a loss on a Thursday morning when he’s not even in the field so uh be sure books would have graded that as a loss with the Futures Market there so that that was there were a lot of people that were

Writing me like when he was you know closer to Triple digits there and I’m like like well he’s not in the field and unless he plays his way into it he’s probably not going to make it with everything that’s going on right now with the PGA Tour and lives so it’s a

Tough thing and and you kind of mentioned this Roberto like there’s there’s two times to make these Wagers you either bet it months out in advance where you get a a a number grab on a on a price that ends up moving across the board all the way you know through

Certain portions and certain sections or you wait until like Wednesday night to where you get some of that drift of different books competing for every last dollar that’s going to come into play there’s a lot of hold percentage in all these events and I think when you take talk about major championships there’s

Always going to be movement that occurs last minute of shops fighting for every last dollar there so be patient that would be my biggest advice is that if you are waiting for a certain number you’ll probably find it if you’re within the range of where it should be yeah I

Think I love that think I call one other guy just real quick and then we’ll we’ll move on if if the ball striking continues to be obvious it wasn’t great at the Players but what we’ve seen the past month what do you think of a guy

Like Min Le who historically is a great Scrambler up and down can get super hot with the putter I know that’s hasn’t been hiso this season but historically I mean what we’ve seen from minu is he could rain it from everywhere I feel like that’s a guy that should be able to

Play really well there and he’s in the mid-50s depending on where you look what has he done at the Masters in the past I I know he played there last year cut I think he was cut last year but the year before that I had him at like 1% ownership and he had

To I had a great Masters run in DFS that that year so T14 in 2022 miscut last year yeah it was it was huge yeah I remember that T14 okay so he was at like 1% ownership and super cheap distance par five scoring long iron proximity I

Mean those and the ability to scramble I mean that’s kind of the the blueprint for Success if you can put that together so I I feel like the the mid-50s is only going to get shorter unless you know if he misses the cut this week and something like like implodes maybe that

Number gets a little bit longer but at that point I probably don’t trust his ball strike in coming into Augusta because I doubt he does anything in Texas I don’t know if he’s talked about his schedule but maybe I don’t know I feel like if you can get 55 to one on midw

Lee I would potentially roll the dice on that I don’t know is that a bad pick I think he might be able to get better yeah okay I think it’ll drift probably too unless he unless he goes out and he wins this tournament and then

All a I think if he top fives or top 10 it then the number probably stays around the same but I don’t if he top fives I feel like that’s going to get a little shorter I feel like he’s probably somebody like a Neeman who had that run

In the fall where he did really well at the DP World Tour events in Australia where people kind of pound piled on him there and he’s just at a shorter number now because of exposure potentially and so he might drift potentially significantly longer the week of uh and

If he doesn’t play pass this week doesn’t have a top five this week then I think you’ll get a chance to bet on a better number but I don’t see him jumping into the 30 to1 range for example uh so I would I would recommend

Waiting there but I’d give me a 65 and I’ll I’ll prob it just get like have Twitter releas a tiger swing or something like that just to start pushing that dead money into the market and then maybe everybody else will move a couple points gentlemen we’re going to skip the

Rapid fire this week because we’re pressor time but where can the people find you and your content this week starting with you Spencer you can find me on Twitter at tof sports I will have my outright article here over at Action Network on Wednesday I will have all the inter

Tournament matchups that I provide over the weekend we’ve remained hot in that sector so that has been great to see uh I am trying today to rep UNLV uh not in the big dance here and that’s very unfortunate that UNLV has become more of a football school than we are a

Basketball school but uh you know we’re not the days of tanian anymore unfortunately that’s that’s uh where hasb at this point Nick where can the people find your work this week and Spencer well before I get to Nick Spencer those in tournament head-to-head bets I think are

Those are the most valuable bets I think you can find in the golf betting space in really any betting space every week and so I highly recommend you tuning in to Spencer’s articles over the weekend because it’s a great chance to get value on some over Corrections from the books

In after a day or two of golf so cannot recommend checking those out anymore than I am right now Nick where can the people find you this week at better golf pod on Twitter I’ll do the DFS breakdown with Spencer and then also a little bit of written DFS stuff at wind daily

Sports and stochastic all for the DFS side of things all the betting will be on Action Network and then Spencer quick question for you and for the listeners I try to catch that in play or that inter tournament article pretty much every night is that usually when you post it

Is there like a set time or is it kind of just let the market mature a little bit or you like to beat it I mean I’m trying unfortunately there’s some editing that has to take place before the the article actually goes up but it will be up every single Saturday night

And then it will be up either on a Thursday or a Friday there there’s one day that I’m not doing it of the two I I normally try to find if there’s a play on Thursday that I really like the article will go up Thursday if there’s

Not a play that I like on Thursday enough to write about it it will go up on Friday awesome you can find me here at Action Network with all of our Action Network golf podcasts uh all of our golf written content in our editing so be

Sure to tune in we’ve got our Best Bets going live tonight Spencer outright article we got one and done uh selections for you to consider from Matt Ganon we got our early outright picks uh in case you want a bet on Monday morning Monday afternoon before the OD shift

Like we’ve discussed with players like hadwin and gim so be sure to tune in to all of our Action Network golf content want to give a big shout out to everybody who listens to the Pod thank you for your support because this would not be possible without you and I want

To give a big shout out to all of our editorial or to all of our producers who help us out getting the POD live David pay Matt Mitchell and Noah Neer Hoffer for doing the heavy lifting and getting us across the Finish Line every single

Week to recap I think I got most of these not all of them Nick I might have missed one or two of your outrights but I know you got Cham Kim Cameron young Tony fow and sunj M jaker Bridgeman plus 260 for top 40 is your best bet you’ve

Also got um you’ve also got the Justin lower play at plus 240 for a top 40 Spencer you’re on both the low and Bridgeman plays or you’re on the low play Davis Thompson minus 110 over your boy Webb Simpson is your best bet you’ve also got Aon and Ry 44th are better

You’ve got uh the bridon play as we said and then in the outright Market You’ got Ry hadwin gim and M uh so shout out to all of the gims and IM the gim Reaper on my card as well I’ve got Brian Haron I got Victor Perez I’m gonna put want of

Fow or young gonna do a little bit of a deep dive in there talk to you guys about it I’ve also got Chandler Phillips top 40 at plus 300 as my best bet and I added Chan Kim top 40 plus 210 in addition to tailing you guys on

Bridgeman and low did I miss anything guys uh Davis Thompson for me also in the outright Market at 100 to one gotcha OE OE for me as well 85 a batia perfect all right guys first or last type of guy right always fun podcast thanks for everybody

For tuning in and we’ll see you guys next week in Texas for the Texas Children’s Houston open