Originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic, the Valspar Championship is played on the Copperhead course in Florida.
Jordan Spieth, the champion in 2015, headlines the field for the tournament alongside his good friend and perennial matchplay sidekick Justin Thomas. European Ryder Cup winning captain Luke Donald also tees it up at Palm Harbor, as does Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala, Keegan Bradley, Tom Kim and Will Zalatoris.
In this Valspar Championship 2024 Preview, we’ll break down the best picks for the tournament with insight and analysis from Andy and Geoff as we go in search of another profitable week on the PGA Tour.
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Welcome to another episode of the drive presented by odds Checker my name is Andy lack I am joined as always by Jeffrey fineberg sad Monday sad Monday for us Jeff um another crushing defeat at the hands of Scotty sheffler who feels like the proverbial Boogeyman in in golf
These days but um our guy Xander gave it a pretty good run and I I I gotta I gotta be honest with you man I’m I’m licking my wounds a little bit today I was staring at that bbar board and I just felt a little depleted inside I
Wasn’t there was nothing jumping out at me I you know I was throwing myself a little bit of a pity party but hopefully talk to you talking through the board can get me a little inspired and we could we can get off the the schneide
This week at at what I think is a a good tournament a fun golf course so uh how are you today my friend probably better than you but like you and like many others licking their wounds be it with Xander wendam Brian Harmon all three of them clearly like know exact I could
Find multiple places where they let that thing get away from them did you have multiple of them by I just had Xander I just had Xander too but I know some of our friends had our friend Brian had all three but within many people you know most people had
Like one of them Brian Haron was really popular because he had those early huge numbers that I couldn’t access being away from my books last week Scotty just he took it and and the other guys all had their chances I don’t know I don’t want to beat it down the
You know Windam still a hero Brian Harmon’s you know nails and and Xander she’s 1900 at Saw Grass but still feels like he’s a bit of a joker so I don’t know what to say to you Andy um let’s just try to lick our wounds like you
Said it’s valpar time I know it’s been uh since the 2022 Scottish open since Xander Wan and he desperately would like a a win I think it’s his friend kley was scheduled to be in this tournament they were Drew and they usually like do schedules that mimic each other so they
Were they were planning on doing xanders in form he wants to keep doing it so talk us through this board yeah I’m a little bummed about some of the late WDS that we got for this tournament I mean I am a crazy person so I do all my research on a golf
Course like as guys are te for the for the next week as guys are teeing off on Thursday the prior week so I was looking at the early commitments to the Valar and Tommy was supposed to play this event seah was supposed to play this event Patrick Klay was supposed to play
This event Tom Kim was supposed to play this event um and now we’re looking at a somewhat depleted odds board and I got to be honest with you Xander at plus 750 as low as plus 600 in some places um I can’t say that’s really speaking to me
Um I think that I don’t think that there’s going to be any form of a massive emotional let down where he is incapable of winning a golf tournament after he almost won a golf tournament um same goes for Brian Harmon by the way uh but the only real name at the top and
You know I’ve gotten a lot of things right this year Jeff but I’ve gotten a few things wrong and I’m starting to get to the point of Justin Thomas where I don’t know how much longer I can get away with uh saying that he is a good bed and has a
Good chance to win he broke my heart at Rivier bad miscut broke my heart last week at the Players bad miscut um I like him the most out of these top guys to be honest with you I still like the way that he hit his irons last week
Um but maybe I’m a sucker and I gotta just look at what’s right in front of me and and say hey maybe this guy his numbers are great but because of the putter his he’s not as close as you may think he is I don’t have a good feeling about anyone near the
Top I just I don’t I I don’t I wouldn’t be shocked Z like it’s a you know it sort of asks a lot of what Xander does really well I have no interest in getting back on that horse at onethird the number we got to play it a week ago
If I had to pick a guy at the very top it would probably be Sam Burns just I don’t know he seems so consistent I feel like I could trust him more than JT or speed at the moment but even at 12 to1 I don’t know that I’m
Going to get there I’m going to do it responsibly this week Andy because I’m a guy that just you starts to watch college basketball this week that means I like to get in on some action so uh yeah it’ll all blur together as the weekend goes but fun times baseball
Starting soon use that odds Checker grid for any bets you want to make no matter the sport but especially with golf because when you hit that winner let’s take home the biggest number we’ll cross past the 20s Brian Haron can I just ask you a quick question who do you think’s
A better who do you think’s closer right now to winning a golf tournament spe or JT they’re two guys I I you don’t hear me talk about either of them they don’t really end up on my cards they’re talked about a lot by other people I don’t honestly I’d say Thomas I really
Would but I have no interest in betting either of them when they finally get off the schneide they’ll get I mentioned Xander 2022 freaking Scottish open uh JT we’re still waiting on it since um that PGA Championship of maybe 22 also right yeah Justin Thomas hasn’t won a
Golf tournament since uh Southern Hills yeah and that was 22 Yeah spe hasn’t won a golf tournament since the 2022 Heritage so yeah a lot of there’s a lot of big yeah there’s a lot of big wind routes at these guys near the top Brian Harman obviously an Open champ F now
It’s been a blur and Cameron young never fow is 2023 Mexico yeah okay yeah sorry yeah okay no it’s a long time that’s a long time now um but yeah as we keep going uh you know I don’t know Cameron young seen it as high as 27 to one on
This odds Checker grid as low as 20 take a lot of heat anytime I bet him from the from the Twitter replies but I might have the courage I’ve made no bet under 50 to one and thus far no B under 50 to1 for me you
Could I don’t really have an interest in any part of of this range I’d argue Brian Haron still sitting at 22 despite being cut from what seemed like they were early 33s or something out there that doesn’t seem horrible the course seems like it should it fits him
Perfectly and I don’t know guy seems like he’s nails for the most part other than some shorties early in his round on Sunday yeah totally um I mean I think that Haron has to be in consider ation here uh I I Know Who You
Bet do you want to take a guess I can I I have I I swear on Justin Herbert’s ACL I don’t know who you’ve bet you don’t we haven’t talked about this I’m not betting it but I have I’m certain you’re back in on Keith metrol this
Week I’m not should I be OHA geez we actually laid some wood I’d have lost some money there so we start at 50 uh and I don’t know sorry I interrupted you but is 50 who you’re betting let’s just get to the bets there there will be I just
Haven’t made it yet like I haven’t made a move on JT who’s my favorite at the top I’ve got cold feet around that one um but my favorite at the top no if I bet anyone at the top it’d be Justin Thomas that’s it and that’s the only guy
Under 50 to one you’re you’re even considering yeah um I I don’t mind uh so it’s either like Justin Thomas and or three like a couple long shots or no Justin Thomas and just a and just an Easter basket full of bombs you got it you got it
Um yeah I mean I think sunj is gonna I I’m starting to see some stuff by S from sunjay but I don’t I don’t know if I want to bet him at thing about sunj he’s scary I think when he wins Andy it’s probable where there’s no warning signs
The warning signs you’ve gotten are the only warning signs you’ll get because if you deep dive his stats in the past he really can just pop like a firecracker with that Approach at any time even off a string of horrible gol he can come out and gain like six and a half Strokes
With the approach so it’s a valid it’s one of those where I don’t think you’re gonna get the warning you might think you’ve already like the warning you’ve gotten might be all you’re G to get when he finally wins I mean that um I don’t hate it it’s not something I’m strongly
Considering it’s really where the 50s are the gim I pulled at a strong number earlier um me as well yeah it just seems like a perfect little place for him his consistency you can trust him maybe he’s a smarter like DFS top five top 10 BET
Than the outright bet but what are we doing here we’re doing outrights and there’s vas valpark card after uh kicking the nuts you know it’s a bit of a blur Keith Mitchell I’m circling around the 50 there’s Keegan at 55 on that odds Checker grid uh Bez at 55 on
That odds Checker grid straa Mavs so like this is a range where I am swimming I I could throw a handful of darts here Andy uh pick me up yeah I bet Doug as well Mr gim at 80 to1 he’s now down to 55 uh sure I don’t even think that’s
Horrible because that’s where I might have guessed he would have been if I had to do this last night toally totally agree like if you have access to a 5 I didn’t get the 80 I got the 70s so I missed the early big but but honestly if
I I might even get back in on the on the 50 FES because I don’t I don’t think that’s again that’s what I would have guessed he would have been last night I mean that sure yeah agreed and I have um good friends in New York for me that
Know what to do while I’m still asleep here on the West Coast for me um so you know I gim ad0 I I think that sometimes when something is that clear in your face I think it’s negligence to Overlook at the guys finish top 20 in five
Straight starts and he’s doing it in a fairly sustainable way like he’s gained off the teen every single start this year he’s gained over a stroke on approach and five straight starts he’s putting really well and he’s had a lot of success putting on overseed to Bermuda greens he’s going to a golf
Course that similarly to sass demands Precision off the tea Elite mid to Long iron play like it’s not just the fact that Doug gim is playing well it’s the fact that we’re going to a golf course that suits Doug gim quite well too so uh I I would I would endorse not
Overthinking it and just playing the guy who in this field outside of Xander from a Strokes game total standpoint is playing the best golf in this field over the last two months like if you can get that at at 50 to1 you just do it um and
Then the other guy that I bet you have crash too which is why I feel like kind of bad um giving this one out but I bet the glove uh 110 to1 he’s down to 70 70 to one on that odds Checker grid um wild times um I don’t even
Like Lucas Glover rates out he’s a statistical darling for me this week I had to rerun my model like 18 different times to get Lucas Glover out of the number one spot and finally Xander overtook him but the guy is a machine in terms of driving accuracy he’s a great
Mid to long arm player him getting hot at the end of last year Jeff and winning backto back at Windam and Memphis was not just a result of a player getting hot at the right time it was Golf Course dependent as well like you want to play Lucas Glover on firm Southeastern
Bermuda narrow golf courses with thicker rough and and firm greens that emphasize accurate driving and mid to Long iron play overall approach play and bpar has that in Spades so um I I like Glover a lot this week uh I bet him at 110 70 is fine I mean who else are we
Get you know it’s like yeah no listen you bet Lucas Glover I could you know I I’m about to name the guys that I have bet it’s like oh I these guys are better than Lucas and maybe I should have been looking at that triple digits this
Morning I did bet uh SE straa MH I like that you know we’re talking outright bets Andy and you could repeat this every week but finishing first the same as you know finishing second is the same as finishing 8th like and he’s shown an ability to spike he’s a shown shown
Ability to succeed on tough Florida golf courses it’s enough for me to like him versus the back of the pack here uh I’m a sucker I’ve gotten sucked into MAV McNeely this weekend Andy I mean I know there’s a lot of magic beans but on Saturday and then he faded Sunday but
There’s been a nice progression there and a guy haven’t bet but I’m staring at there’s 80 as high as 90 to one with enhanced wins is Taylor Montgomery who’s playing really solid consistent golf but maybe that is maybe more of a top a playing b or something I should be
Looking for in DFS because he’s shown in the past he he can run a he can get really consistent and he’s had some quality high-end performances and I think he could string something together so those the guys in front of a 100 Andy as we cross a 100 and that card that
Wouldn’t have Justin Thomas on it name me the guys you throw these grenades on um our guy Davis Thompson at 100 to yeah yeah I I I’ve been I circled around that one not there yet but swimming around it dve t University of Georgia Southeastern Bermuda great okay mid to
Long iron player um I’m G interrupt you and say I know you’re betting Grayson Sig then I like Sig a lot as well he would be in that zone for me the guys that I would go to um you know and I may go to just to fill out this card uh
Davis Thompson McKenzie Hughes Matthew n Smith Grayson Sig um I I don’t even mind Heats this week as well yeah I like every name you mentioned in that in that group I think uh you can make a decent case for all of them that prox that what
Like 170 Iron Range like Matthew n Smith there’s there’s a lot of G there’s a lot of parts in all those guys games that you could think could play really well around Copperhead yeah I mean I think like trying to think as I go farther down I
If there’s anyone else I want to make sure that we mentioned this guy is a little bit um let’s see uh Sam Ryder’s now 90 um I think he’s gonna be really popular but he’s shown he’s shown he can put up those birdies yeah totally totally I mean he
Is yeah he’s down to 90 now I believe that opened higher than that so I missed any potential big Rider numbers but yeah I mean I am debating heavily debating Justin Thomas this week um I don’t feel great about it but Glover I’m in on gim I’m in
On if I don’t if I don’t end up doing the dance with JT it’ll be a lot of guys like Sig and Thompson and and N Smith in this uh and McKenzie Hughes in this 100 zone so anyone else you want to touch on before we get out of here my friend no
You sort of uh my Streeter just dropped some numbers instantly it’s like my brain my eyes go right to it uh Grayson Sig um hitu those are you mentioned them n he he SATs he SATs sorry that’s my fault uh PL the fifth uh yeah those would be the
Guys but for me the bets that I have um that I have made I have been on on gim straa MC Neely but I’ll be adding to it and the amount of bodies I could pull if I actually complete the Do Not bet anyone under 50 to1 challenge
Andy like I don’t I don’t think I have the willpower to act actually get there on my final card but I’m I’ve been thinking about what I could do if I actually pull that off they do not bet anyone under 50 to1 challenge yeah provocative this week certainly um just don’t want
Jade wouldn’t mind even just taking a week off but there’ll be worse tournaments before the Masters I promise you right well maybe a lower investment week we’ll we’ll invest more heavily and March Madness and save our money for Augustus Augusta coming up you any who’s your who’s your pick to win The Masters
Right now real quick I really have a I don’t really have a pi but my favorite bets are my nean 100 to ones okay yeah yeah yeah that that I would be feel pretty good about that bet as well right now I have um I made like I ran the
Numbers and made my true odds this morning and I had I saw that I didn’t mind that because we could do a minute on that because it’s just oneway traffic like Cameron young is still 45 to one on a master’s board you know the books have
Made Scotty what he is which is totally fair I understand why they want to do that but they haven’t bumped up the field yet to correlate to that and that certainly gonna happen so unless you like want to bet Sam Burns to win The Masters because you think he’s going to
Play amazing this week win and just keep riding this for in and he’s going to be a popular guy there’s like two guys whose odds are going to shrink between now in the Masters totally yeah like for example with making Sheffer five to one if I mean it’s it should be
Competitive pricing because bucks will be competing for your money at the Masters with the hold that you’re going to start with at Sheffer at 5 to1 unless Rory wins the Valero Texas open um he’s probably going to be available like or like Brooks WIS Dural or something right
Yeah I mean we’re just not going to see a lot of these guys between now and the Masters so unless you’re M unless you’re putting Scotty on some college basketball parlays which I’m not even condoning I got some buddies in my group chat joking about it though I don’t
There’s no point in betting the Masters yet they’re going to reset every nons Scotty player to a better number unless they go off this month and how many players could that be two also I don’t I I don’t know I didn’t research this beforehand if Scotty’s playing Houston
Which is the next week he’s a Texas guy he apparently is playing Houston I spoke about that this morning with Pat yeah Max hom just committed to Houston right and and that only goes up so like for example you know if Scotty finishes T12 in Houston or Scotty it’s not going down
Like no if Scotty finishes t 12 in Houston he’s not going to 8 to one at the Masters right it’s no there’s no CH I honestly yeah it’s it’s yeah it’s I don’t know it’s very kind of feels unbeatable at the moment but I combine sometimes I just start
Talking in hyperbole um but when he does what he does at those golf courses it’s kind of hard yeah not to but yeah I enjoyed that check out Andy’s Twitter feed for all of his content and what he feels is at this moment in time time Fair Masters pricing but what’s what’s
Being offered isn’t so I would recommend nobody really get into that unless you absolutely love someone and you think they’re going off this week and and maybe subsequently as well because even if you win this week by the time Masters gets here if the winds are blown the
Right way you could just be a forgotten entity I mean that like yeah uh okay Andy we get off uh you know still licking those wounds Copperhead end to Florida golf we love it but we’ll be back uh next week it’s not Houston it’s somewhere else hon yeah it’s Houston
Houston um TPC San Antonio Masters baby I’ll be coming to you live from Augusta that day on Monday well there it is there you go you’ll be in Vegas right I’ll be in Vegas later in the week I’ll be here for this for this chatter box though on the Masters Andy always enjoy
Talking golf always enjoy talking golf with you hopefully without Scotty we can uh one of these good players could knock something off finally we’ll see uh for Andy lack I’m Jeff fineberg join us next week here at oddschecker.com hit the Like
2 Comments
If it’s windy it’s Min Lee !
Harman train baby LFG