This week I quickly recap the PLAYERS Championship before diving into my thoughts on the 2024 Valspar Championship.
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Ladies and gentlemen boys and girls children of all ages this is at the helm Sports I’m your host Derek Helm thank you for joining me for episode 120 please be sure to follow And subscribe on Apple podcast and Spotify leave those five star reviews if you’re watching on
YouTube make sure you’re sub subscribe to the channel hit that like button and in the comment section tell me who who your winner is for this week I’ve heard a lot of names thrown around there and just trying to get a gauge on on who a
Lot of people are on so down in the com comments let me know who the winner is going to be so obviously the players was a huge success I mean we’ve been complaining a lot as golf fans recently but just everything about the event was great I mean the coverage was incredible
Which we tend to complain about the golf itself was great we finally got a great leaderboard an awesome finish on Sunday obviously Scotty got it done all all the talk of can he go back to back is the putter really there I mean he proved it
He had the neck injury it’s hard to know how bad that really was and how much it hindered him I mean maybe that kept him from running away with it by five Strokes like he did last year or maybe it really wasn’t that big of a deal and
He kind of just played it up a little bit more but regardless the the guy’s incredible he he came storming back on Sund day I mean once he hit that two hop and 90 Dee in the hole that was just you pretty much knew at that point it was
His even though that was pretty early in his round but the guy is absolutely incredible he he is a superstar right now and if the putter really is back I mean it it’s going to be interesting to see what he can do but we have seen him
Go on some runs and and look Unstoppable before and then he doesn’t win again past April so we’ll have to see you know see what he does at the Masters and see what he does in some of these upcoming tournaments but Scotty was absolutely incredible and and put on a show on
Sunday which was kind of unfortunate because I know a lot of people had Brian Harmon tickets Xander shaay tickets wam Clark tickets so obviously they weren’t able to get it done Harmon just just couldn’t get it done I mean he he looked very very good on Sunday and played good
Throughout the entire tournament he was actually birding some of the more difficult holes but then not able to birdy some of the easier holes so that kind of kept him out of it Z just anytime he really just had a chance to to pull away with it he just choked it
Back and then obviously the the Windam putt I mean I I still don’t understand how that thing didn’t go in that was just absolutely brutal it would have been awesome to see a playoff there between the two of them but Scotty wins it and it was a pretty good week for me
Overall DraftKings wise not so great when you talk up C woo and Sam Ryder all week and then end up cutting them in your last Cuts usually doesn’t work out very well that that could have made a huge difference because obviously they finished pretty well here and for their
Prices that would have gone a long way but from a betting standpoint can’t complain when we don’t lose money I mean we got the Hideki each way had Windam top 20 Doug gim top 40 so hit a bunch of things and and it was it was a good week
Overall so now we move on to the valpar this one is a little bit more difficult definitely a difficult course we can we can dive into it so it’s similar to the players just from a standpoint of we’re still in the Florida swing obviously it’s the
Last stop in the Florida swing but we have similar greens to what we had last week so they’re listed as Bermuda greens but they’re the PO overseed so it’ll basically be identical to what we saw at TPC Sawgrass 7,340 yard par 71 and one of the interesting things about the
Copper head course at inisbrook is it has five par 3es and four par fives so for a par 71 definitely makes it unique in that standpoint the par fivs are obviously the easiest on the course most of them are not really reachable in two so not
Going to see a lot of eagles there but you still do have to score on them because this is a difficult tournament usually we’ll see somewhere around minus 10 minus 12 maybe Burns was able to get to minus 17 so some years that there can be some scoring and obviously this
Florida swing we have seen the PGA make some of these courses a little bit easier so it’s going to be interesting to see what they do here but definitely got a score on on the par fives uh four of the par 3es are actually over 200 yards so they are definitely going to
Play as some of the more difficult holes on the course and I mean really it has the one of the most difficult three- hole closing stretches 16 to 18 the snake pit is is absolutely brutal and a lot of rounds and maybe even tournaments could actually come down to to those three
Holes 16 is the hardest of the bunch 475 yard par four 24% bogey rate nearly a 6% Double Or Worse rate so that that hole can cause absolutely Carnage then you have 17 which is a 215 yard par three does have the largest green on the course but if you’re not really getting
It close I mean there’s a chance of three putts in here and putting inside a five feet is not a gimme here so definitely got to get it pretty close there the Green’s also surrounded by bunkers so another difficult hole there and then the closing 18th hole 4 45
445 yard par seven w wow I cannot speak right now par 4 with narrow bunker lined Fairway there are trees on a lot of these Fairways so it’s driving accuracy over driving power is is the way you want to go this week driving accuracy comes in a little bit less than tour
Average mainly because a lot of guys are hitting less than driver here so they they’re finding a little bit more Fairways because you definitely don’t want to be out of place here the rough can definitely be penal there are some trees lining the fairways so you don’t
Want to get too far off of course because it’s not like last week where you’re going to go into the water but you’re going to make a really tough time for yourself if you’re not driving the ball accurately this week now with the less than driver strategy driving
Distance comes in a little bit lower about 272 yards so lower than tour average there now approach shots definitely need the mid to Long irons 175 plus basically 20% and then 200 yards you you’re looking at almost half of all all approach shots coming
From 175 to to 200 plus so you got to bring those long irons and and really a lot of that obviously comes from those par 3es being over 200 yards but you definitely want to look at those proximity ranges and and even more specifically how guys far on those par
3es from 200 to 225 last year Taylor Moore won it at minus1 Burns obviously won back-to-back years minus 17 so we can head into the field itself not a terrible field but it’s it’s got some some strength up top and and we’ll dive right into it I mean Xander obviously
You got to wonder if there’s going to be a hangover there I know there’s a hangover for me I mean that’s probably still more from St Patty’s Day than the players but a lot of people thought he was going to withdraw from this one so it’s going to be interesting to see how
He comes out I mean if you look at him statistically and and just where his game is at I could see him running away with this thing and I I definitely like Xander this week I think that’s part of the reason why he’s not withdrawing is
He thinks he can win here and he wants to get a win so I I do like Xander 11,200 I think is actually a pretty good price for him because again we have this 5K scoring so or 5K pricing so I I do think it makes sense going to him
Obviously Sam Burns is going to be incredibly popular and I am fine going back to him he he has just been a monster on on this course came six last year obviously won the back-to-back tournaments he’s gained Strokes putting in all five appearances he gained 10.5 Strokes putting in
2018 over nine Strokes in 2021 in that win so he he likes these greens had an okay players really had an incredible Saturday you know and then Sunday it was a little bit rough shot of 76 he lost Strokes putting but fairly well te to Green there and over the last
24 rounds he’s second in par five scoring so we said you want to score on these par fives that that definitely helps him and sixth in bogy avoidance so you know there’s going to be a lot of trouble here and he’s very good at bogey avoidance part of that is being able to
Hit th those putts to save par so definitely like him here and and going to be playing quite a bit of Sam Burns now really I’d like to play a lot of these guys up top and then just pick and choose as I get down because I I do
Think that there’s quite a gap from the top pier and then as as we get down a little bit even in the 8K range so I’m going to try and fit in Justin Thomas I I was considering making a wager on him I did end up going with Sam Burns just
Because of how well he’s played this course I took him at 12 to one Thomas is close at 14 to1 I considered it I am considering a top 20 on him I know he missed the cut last week but he’s fared well here and and just his game has been
Really good you know two miscuts but otherwise he he’s playing very well and at the the copper head course he’s 10th last year third in 2022 13th in 2021 so do like where his game is at it obviously fits here so I definitely gotta play some Justin Thomas I do think
Jordan spe will go overlooked and for that reason I do want to get him in some of my larger field stuff his game hasn’t really been great lately but 10,200 is a good enough price for him this is a course where he’s had success he came
Third place last year I do think that even though the approach game and off the tea game haven’t been too great his around the green magic just can pay dividends here especially if the wi picks up so right now I’m considering spe but probably only in my 20 Max and
Then I love Brian Harmon as well you know it’s similar to Xander how’s he gonna show up this week because he he was right there and and had it for the taking himself so going to be interesting to see how it affects him I do want to keep an eye on his ownership
Because I I’ve heard his name thrown around quite a bit here and actually did look early and and was thinking about making a bet on him at 35 to1 and then by the time I went back there he was already down to 26 so skipped over that
One but I do think he’s gonna make the DraftKings pool and then I’m skipping over cam young and sunjay I I I do like where their games are at just cam young he can get a little sloppy off the tea from time to time so that just worries
Me a little bit here now the approach game has been incredible for him so if he hitting all these greens it doesn’t come into play but also his around the green hasn’t been too great lately so I I’m willing to take a chance and skip over him and then also sunjay despite
The fact that he’s been playing better I do like Tony feno actually he’s first in Strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds he has just been hitting his iron so well he’s fourth in proximity from over 200 yards fifth in par five scoring just with how well he’s been striking
The ball just kind of got a hope that the putter shows up which has been letting him down lately but at at this price just in this field this this is the type of field where fenale can come out and win from time to time so I I do
Like that and even if you wanted to make a bet on him I think he’s had a pretty good number I’ve seen it 22 to 25 somewhere around there I did not personally bet it because I went all the way up top for burns but I don’t hate it
A guy I did bet was Nick Taylor 99,100 the guy is playing Great Golf and I got him at 40 to1 with a top six each way I I do think that he gets a little bit popular here but he’s been playing so well this year he obviously won the
Waste management back in February finished 12th at the Arnold pmer finished 26 last week at the Players he actually played great golf last week other than shooting a 76 on Saturday but you know he was four over on his opening nine on Saturday and two Bogies a double
So it didn’t start off well but then he kind of turned it around shot even par on the back so he he played pretty well overall outside of that that front kn on Saturday and he’s gained Strokes on approach in seven straight tournaments over the last 24 rounds he’s third on
Strokes gained approach 13th in bogy avoidance and 24th from 175 to 200 yards so I like where Taylor’s game is at definitely going to be playing quite a bit of him and then we’re gonna get pretty spotty down here I I do like Keith Mitchell I I think that he could
Play well here he’s been striking his irons fairly well especially the long ones he’s actually first from 200 plus yards so do like that hasn’t really played this course very often only a 69th back in 2021 so I I do think that it it could fit him though and with his current form
He’s a guy that tends to play well in Florida so I’m definitely fine going there then I’m going to drop down quite a bit here I do like Aaron Ry at 8500 he’s also been hitting his irons very well and 175 to 200 he’s ninth over the
Last 24 rounds a guy that can find the fairways it’s just similar to what I said with Tony feno their games are nowhere near the same but it’s probably going to come down to putting with them so do get a little bit worried about that but it’s a guy that can AO avoid
Bogies and find Fairways so I’m fine with him in 8500 Doug gim has been on absolute fire so 8,400 for him I do think is a great price do want to keep an eye on his ownership because he’s been very popular the past several tournaments and I could see him being
Incredibly popular at only 8,400 but he’s also been great with the irons great with bogy avoidance good on the par fivs so I I like where his game is at and I’m definitely fine going there next we have Maverick mcney beginning of the week I did not
Think I was going to go here at all but after looking at it I I I do think that it makes a little bit of sense here he he’s been playing very well this year he’s only missed one cut in eight tournaments most recently he finished
Ninth at the Players last week 41st at the cognizant but then 13th in Mexico sixth at the waste management so he has a good amount of of good finishes this year he’s gained Strokes off the te in each of his last four tournaments so you obviously like that especially when you
Pair it with his Wizardry around the green I mean that that could definitely come into play here so if he’s finding Fairways gaining off the te and and then he’s first around the green over the last 24 rounds eighth in bogey avoidance ninth in par three scoring so so
Definitely like where his game is at I made an outright on him at 66 to1 with top six places so I do like him as well now if we keep going down here I’m willing to go to sep straa I I just it’s more of a feel he’s been okay
Lately nothing really sticks out too much to you hasn’t really played this course Very Much 46th most recently back in 2019 but I’m I’m fine with where his game’s at and I do think that he could attack this course Taylor Moore obviously won last year we’ve seen Paul Casey we’ve seen Sam
Burns come back and and play well as the defending champ so I’m I’m willing to go there 7,800 with him I think I’m gonna play Billy horel as of right now I do have a star next to his name hasn’t really played the Florida swing as as
Great as you would like him to but he is good on the par 3es he can find some Fairways he’s good at bogey avoidance and has played well in the past in Florida so I’m willing to go there at only 7,400 another guy I want to look at
The ownership but Sam Ryder like I said I I ended up not going with him last week kind of wish I did but he’s been striking his irons incredibly well so I’m fine going back there depending on what the ownership is I’m seeing somewhere around 15% right now but at
7,300 as long as he doesn’t get much higher than that I’m fine going there he he’s been as I said hitting the irons very well but also finding Fairways which you want to do around here I’m G to play Daniel Berger as well I I think that as he gets more tournaments under
His belt he’s going to start to look a little bit more like himself and I’d rather be early on it than late I do think that he does get a little bit of steam here not much maybe somewhere around 12% but it’s actually a little bit more when pricing first came out
Than I thought he was going to get but you know when you see a caliber of his name you know people just know what he’s capable of or what at least he used to be capable of so at only 7200 it does stick out now from here very few and far between
Here I do like Andrew Novak I’m willing to forgive him for last week obviously a very volatile course with a lot of water but previously had three straight top 10 finishes gained over five Strokes on approach in in two of those three tournaments so striking the ball very
Well he’s seventh in Strokes gain approach from 200 plus yards 11th around the green and he’s also top 20 in par 3es from 200 to 225 over the last 24 rounds so I like where his game is at for for this place and then bud colie I’ll I’ll sprinkle in a
Little bit I I think he’s been playing pretty good golf lately after a long layoff Grayson Sig actually stands out statistically 6300 I think is a good price for him sixth in Strokes gained approach 14th in bogey avoidance first on those par threes from 200 to 225
First and par three scoring overall he’s fourth on those iron shots from 175 to 200 so definitely like where Grayson Sig’s game is at at only 6,300 and then I will sprinkle in some Ryan Moore played a little bit of him last week he was okay but another guy
That can find the Fairway and and has been striking the ball very well he’s actually top 10 in Strokes gain approach over the last 24 rounds so I I am fine going there and then as far as I’m going to drop down is it’s probably Michael
Kim also been pretty good with the irons and he’s pretty good on on par 3es but there’s really not much that I like down in the 5K range and I I don’t think that you really need to get there too much so as I said I’m I’m really going to try
And focus a lot on getting as much of those guys up top as I possibly can and then just mixing them with a lot of the guys that I named a little bit further down in the pricing but to recap the bets that I have so far this week we
Have Sam Burns at 12 to one I have Nick Taylor at 40 to one with a top six each way then I have MAV mcney at 66 to1 with a top six each way and then I’m probably looking at maybe a Justin Thomas top 20 maybe Tony
Phenow and then I’m thinking about maybe putting a placement bet on Aaron Ry depending on on what the odds are but that’s what I’m looking at so far probably looking to add another long shot maybe two so check out theh Helm sports.com obviously in the my bets tab
I will have everything up there if you need it or in the newsletter that will be in the description or you can just check out at the helm Sports on substack always will have everything there and the final draft King’s thoughts and all that good stuff all my content will be
Linked there as well but that’s going to do it for this week as always thank you for listening greatly appreciated as I said down in the comments section tell me who your winner is I’m really curious to see what people are feeling this week but that’s going to do it for me for
This week thank you for listening I am your host Derek Helm and remember just have fun out there
